By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-03-14 02:56:21
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
重温2021年关于今日马刺队面貌的预测。
在查找一篇旧文章准备发给朋友时，我偶然发现了一篇2021年8月的帖子，题为 展望2024-2025赛季的马刺：对未来的一点希望。 当时马刺队刚刚结束了一个33胜39负的赛季，最终在西部联盟排名第10。他们最好的球员是德里克·怀特、德章泰·穆雷和雅各布·珀尔特尔，这与蒂姆·邓肯、托尼·帕克和马努·吉诺比利组成的“三巨头”带给我们的激动和喜悦相去甚远。简而言之，一切看起来都很平淡，2014年马刺队“美丽篮球”的冠军渐渐消失在我们的后视镜中，一年比一年模糊。
然而，2021年8月 The Athletic 的作者约翰·霍林格的一篇文章激发了一些希望，也促成了我的文章。霍林格的文章展望了现在的2024-2025赛季，并指出传统强队将被老龄化的超级球星拖累，他们在2024-2025赛季拿着巨额薪水：
设想一下，2024-25赛季的 NBA ：
37岁的斯蒂芬·库里身披金州勇士队的战袍，年薪5580万美元，而且合同还剩一年。
33岁的保罗·乔治是一名快船队球员，年薪4900万美元。和他并肩作战的是32岁的科怀·伦纳德，年薪也是4900万美元；到那时，他很有可能已经签署了一份为期五年的续约合同，每年涨薪8%，直到35岁。
在波特兰（好吧，也许不在波特兰，但请容我这么说），34岁的达米安·利拉德正在狂揽4900万美元。
在密尔沃基，34岁的朱·霍勒迪的年薪为3800万美元，如果算上激励条款，可能会达到4000万美元。
在迈阿密，35岁、膝盖不太灵便的吉米·巴特勒将拿到4800万美元的年薪……而且合同还剩一年。
湖人队很有可能在那个赛季为40岁的勒布朗·詹姆斯支付超过5000万美元的薪水。洛杉矶也可以期待2022-23赛季，届时38岁的詹姆斯将拿到4500万美元，34岁的拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克将拿到4700万美元。
在布鲁克林，36岁的凯文·杜兰特将拿到5100万美元的年薪；如果詹姆斯·哈登和凯里·欧文续约，他们两人加起来将再获得大约1亿美元的收入。这三人的总年龄将达到104岁，仅仅他们的合同就足以让布鲁克林队缴纳奢侈税。
霍林格不可能预料到，在他2021年总结的十位球星中，只有三人会在2024-2025赛季仍然效力于他列出的球队。他也不可能预料到，名单上年龄最大的两位球员，库里和勒布朗，仍然会处于或接近他们职业生涯的巅峰——他们的球队也很乐意为他们每人支付5000万美元的薪水。名单上的其他大部分球员，虽然不在2021年夏天所在的球队，但仍然是相对有效的球员（当然，忽略了凯里·欧文最近的ACL伤病）。
但他文章的真正重点是关注那些在2021年夏天，看起来很有希望在2024-2025赛季及以后取得成功的球队。他的预测基于球队中已有的年轻球员，以及球队拥有的选秀权来获得其他年轻球员。虽然这篇文章将重点关注霍林格对马刺队的预测，以及我对这些预测的评论，但霍林格还列出了其他四支他预测会成功的球队：
很多球队已经为自己设定了在本十年中期进入明显的衰退阶段，而只有少数球队——孟菲斯、俄克拉荷马城、奥兰多、圣安东尼奥和多伦多——似乎将目光放在超越眼前的任何成就上。
霍林格显然命中了名单上四支非马刺球队中的三支。俄克拉荷马雷霆现在是一支强大的球队，可能是NBA中最好的球队，孟菲斯灰熊落后一步，但在竞争激烈的西部排名前四，而奥兰多魔术拥有出色的年轻天赋，只需要学习如何投篮（不可否认，这是这项运动的一项重要技能）。他只看走眼了多伦多猛龙，这支球队看起来将重返乐透区，即使避免东部乐透区的门槛非常低：芝加哥公牛队以27胜38负的战绩稳居附加赛席位，领先猛龙队4.5场。公牛队在西部排名会低于马刺队。
在我对霍林格文章的评论中，基于一个公认荒谬的假设，即马刺队将保留2021年8月阵容中的所有人，我列出了马刺队球员在2024-2025赛季开始时的年龄：
以下是2024-2025赛季的圣安东尼奥马刺队（San Antonio Spurs），按字母顺序排列，年龄按未来赛季开始时计算：
扎克·科林斯 (26)
德鲁·尤班克斯 (27)
凯尔登·约翰逊 (24)
特雷·琼斯 (24)
乔克·兰代尔 (28)
德章泰·穆雷 (27)
雅各布·珀尔特尔 (28)
约书亚·普里莫 (21)
卢卡·萨马尼奇 (24)
德文·瓦塞尔 (23)
朗尼·沃克四世 (25)
德里克·怀特 (30)
乔·威斯坎普 (24)
即使时间并不久远，也只有铁杆马刺球迷才能记住所有这些球员。这些球员中只有两人仍然留在球队——凯尔登·约翰逊和德文·瓦塞尔。在其他人中，我做出了一个非常乐观的评论：“约书亚·普里莫只有21岁，并且可能正在走向球星之路。” 虽然我没有在那篇文章中评论朗尼·沃克四世，但我们中的一些人也曾对他寄予厚望，希望他能成为一名优秀的球员。不幸的是，朗尼的闪光点仍然只是昙花一现。德里克·怀特是这群人中做得最好的，成为一支冠军球队不可或缺的一部分，也是一位能帮助任何球队的球员。为你感到高兴，德里克。
但我2021年乐观预测的一部分已经成真，这超出了马刺球迷的希望。我写道：
虽然这可能过于乐观，甚至是不切实际，但请记住，马刺队保留了他们所有的未来选秀权，还有一些额外的。这些即将到来的选秀权所选中的球员不包括在此分析中。换句话说，虽然马刺队可能不会保留下面列出的所有这些球员，但该列表不包括任何未来的马刺队选秀权。它也不包括马刺队可能增加的任何自由球员。
其中一位加入球队的自由球员是达龙·福克斯，他既年轻又非常有天赋。选秀权包括斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)、杰里米·索汉(Jeremy Sochan)和一位来自法国的年轻人，当霍林格和我做出预测时，他只有17岁。所以是的，我在2021年8月感受到的乐观情绪最终被证明是正确的，即使它包含了一些彩票中的运气。好事降临在好人身上，而马刺队一直是“好人”。
点击查看原文：A Look Back at the Future
A Look Back at the Future
Revisiting a 2021 prediction about what the Spurs would look like today.
While looking for an old article of mine to send to a friend, I ran across a post from August 2021 entitled A look at the 2024-2025 Spurs: A bit of hope for the future. The Spurs had just finished a 33-39 season in which they wound up 10th in the Western Conference. Their best players were Derrick White, Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl, a far cry from the Big Three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili that brought so much excitement and joy. Put simply, things were looking rather blah, with the 2014 Beautiful Game Spurs championship fading away in our rear view mirrors, getting fainter and fainter by the year.
However, an August 2021 article from The Athletic writer John Hollinger triggered both some hope and my article. Hollinger’s article looked forward to what is now the present 2024-2025 season and pointed out that the traditional powers would be saddled with aging superstars making huge dollars in the 2024-2025 season:
Imagine, if you will, the 2024-25 NBA season:
A 37-year-old Steph Curry is suited up for Golden State, making $55.8M, and still having a year left on his deal.
A 33-year-old Paul George is a Clipper, making $49 million. Lining up next to him, a 32-year-old Kawhi Leonard also making $49 million; by then there’s a good chance he will have inked a five-year extension that pays him 8 percent raises until age 35.
In Portland (OK, maybe not in Portland, but humor me), a 34-year-old Damian Lillard is raking in $49 million.
In Milwaukee, a 34-year-old Jrue Holiday is making $38 million with incentives that could take him to $40 million.
In Miami, a 35-year-old, balky-kneed Jimmy Butler will be making $48 million … and still having a year left on his deal.
The Lakers could very well be paying a 40-year-old LeBron James north of $50 million that season. L.A. can also look forward to a 2022-23 campaign where a 38-year-old James makes $45 million and a 34-year-old Russell Westbrook makes $47 million.
And in Brooklyn, a 36-year-old Kevin Durant is pulling down $51 million; if and when James Harden and Kyrie Irving extend their deals, they’ll take in about $100 million more between them. Those three will be a combined 104 years old and their contracts alone may be enough to put Brooklyn in the luxury tax.
Hollinger could not have known that only three of the ten stars in his 2021 summary would still be with the teams he listed in 2024-2025. He also could not have known that the two oldest players on the list, Curry and LeBron, would still be at or near the top of their games — with their teams happy to be paying them $50 million each. Most of the other players listed, while not on the same teams as in the summer of 2021, remain relatively effective players (ignoring of course Kyrie Irving’s recent ACL injury).
But the real point of his article was to focus on teams who, in the summer of 2021, looked to be well situated to succeed in 2024-2025 and beyond. His projection was based on both young players already on the teams and who also had draft capital to acquire other young players. While this post will focus on the Spurs part of Hollinger’s projections, and my comments on those projections, Hollinger listed four other teams who he projected to succeed:
A great many teams have set themselves up to be in a pronounced decline phase by mid-decade, while just a small handful — Memphis, Oklahoma City, Orlando, San Antonio and Toronto — seem to have their eyes on any achievement beyond the immediate here and now.
Hollinger clearly hit on three of the four non-Spurs teams on his list. OKC is now a juggernaut and probably the best team in the NBA, Memphis is a step behind but top four in the very competitive West, while Orlando has great young talent that just needs to learn how to shoot the basketball (admittedly an important skill for the game). He only missed on Toronto, which looks like a team headed back to the lottery, even though the bar to avoid the lottery in the East is very low: The Bulls are 27–38 and comfortably in the Play-in Tournament, 4.5 games ahead of the Raptors. The Bulls would be behind the Spurs in the West.
In my comments on the Hollinger article, with the admittedly absurd assumption that the Spurs would retain everyone on the roster as of August 2021, I listed the Spurs players with their age starting the 2024-2025 season:
Here are the 2024-2025 San Antonio Spurs in alphabetical order, with the age listed as of the start of that future season:
Zach Collins (26)
Drew Eubanks (27)
Keldon Johnson (24)
Tre Jones (24)
Jock Landale (28)
Dejounte Murray (27)
Jakob Poeltl (28)
Joshua Primo (21)
Luka Samanic (24)
Devin Vassell (23)
Lonnie Walker IV (25)
Derrick White (30)
Joe Wieskamp (24)
Only hard-core Spurs fans will remember all of those players, even though it was not that long ago. Only two of those players remain with the team – Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell. Of the others, I made one wildly optimistic comment: “Joshua Primo will be only 21 and possibly on his way to stardom.” Although I didn’t comment on him in that particular post, some of us also had high hopes that Lonnie Walker IV would become an excellent player. Unfortunately, Lonnie’s flashes of brilliance remained mere flashes. Derrick White has done the best of the crew, becoming an integral piece on a championship team and a player who would help any team. Good for you, Derrick.
But one part of my optimistic projections from 2021 has come true, more than Spurs fans could have hoped. I wrote:
While that might be optimistic, if not unrealistic, remember that the Spurs have retained all their future picks plus some extras. The players that come out of those upcoming draft picks are not included in this analysis. In other words, while the Spurs might not keep all of these players listed below, this list does not include any of the future Spurs draft picks. It also does not include any free agents that the Spurs might add.
One of those free agents added to the team is De’Aaron Fox, who is both young and very talented. The draft picks include Stephon Castle, Jeremy Sochan and a young guy from France who was only 17 when Hollinger and I were making our projections. So yes, the optimism I felt in August 2021 turned out to be justified, even if it included some luck in the lottery. Good things happen to good people, and the Spurs have always been “good people”.
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock