By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-03-05 04:22:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
达拉斯独行侠队自赛季初取得19胜10负的开局后，便饱受伤病困扰。周二，球队遭遇了本赛季最重大的医疗损失。ESPN的沙姆斯·查拉尼亚报道称，明星后卫凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)被诊断出ACL撕裂，伤情源于周一输给萨克拉门托国王队的比赛初期。
在一个多月前卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)被交易至洛杉矶湖人队，而交易得到的全明星球员安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)也因内收肌拉伤而缺阵的情况下，独行侠队严重依赖欧文来维持球队的进攻火力。此外，达拉斯还缺少了中锋丹尼尔·加福德(Daniel Gafford)和德里克·莱夫利二世(Dereck Lively II)，锋线球员P.J. 华盛顿(P.J. Washington)也因短期伤病缺席。这意味着在周一的比赛中，欧文和克莱·汤普森(Klay Thompson)是球队仅有的两名常规首发球员。
欧文的缺席将持续到2025-26赛季，这给原本希望在东契奇和欧文的带领下，在2024年打入NBA总决赛后，与戴维斯一起赢得总冠军的球队带来了问题。
对于一支本赛季怀揣夺冠希望的球队来说，独行侠队通往季后赛的最佳途径现在很可能就是通过西部附加赛。但伤病困扰让他们很容易完全无缘季后赛。好消息是？排名第十的独行侠队领先最后一个附加赛席位3.5个胜场，领先于那些同样面临问题的球队。菲尼克斯太阳队正经历一个充满风暴的赛季，凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)成为了交易传闻的中心，而圣安东尼奥马刺队也遭遇了伤病挫折，维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)因深静脉血栓而缺席本赛季剩余比赛。
让我们深入探讨一下独行侠队接下来会发生什么，并分析一下西部附加赛的预期情况——现在突然包括了一支从联盟垫底球队变成联盟最火热球队之一的队伍。
没有欧文，达拉斯有多强？
本赛季东契奇和欧文都缺席的10场比赛中，独行侠队的战绩为3胜7负，净负8.5分。其中一场是东契奇被令人震惊地交易后，以43分惨败给联盟领先的克利夫兰骑士队，放大了这一数据，但在没有这两名后卫的其他九场比赛中，达拉斯总共输了42分。可以预见的是，在欧文缺阵的情况下，独行侠队的防守有所加强，但在得分方面却举步维艰。根据NBA高级数据统计，在没有欧文的情况下，达拉斯的进攻效率每百回合下降超过8分。
独行侠队的建队理念是始终让东契奇或欧文中的一人在场上，这使得球队在其他位置上的控球和组织能力有限。斯宾塞·丁威迪(Spencer Dinwiddie)现在成为了达拉斯的主要控球后卫，承担着关键角色，但他的得分效率远不如东契奇和欧文。
现在是三年级后卫杰登·哈迪(Jaden Hardy)承担更大角色的理想时机。哈迪平均每36分钟能得到19分，是达拉斯外线最具爆发力的运动员，但他的上场时间并不稳定，并且在周一的比赛中因脚踝受伤而离场。这可能导致独行侠队在短期内不得不依靠双向球员布兰登·威廉姆斯(Brandon Williams)作为替补控球后卫。更糟糕的是，由于球队因休赛期的运作过于接近NBA低奢侈税硬工资帽，达拉斯无法在赛季的最后一周之前填补其第15个阵容空缺。
对于独行侠队球迷来说，一线希望是戴维斯可能会很快从他在达拉斯首秀中遭受的内收肌拉伤中恢复过来，从而为球队提供更多的得分火力。戴维斯计划在本周晚些时候重新评估他的康复情况。在戴维斯填补了加福德和莱夫利受伤后留下的中锋位置空缺后，独行侠队可以希望重新以防守为核心，并在赛季剩余的比赛中至少打出五成胜率。
展望未来，达拉斯拥有的优质内线球员可能会导致他们在休赛期面临艰难的选择。NBA球员从ACL撕裂中恢复通常需要至少九个月的时间，而且通常需要整整一年的时间，因此不能指望欧文能在2025-26赛季开始时复出。考虑到这一点，并且球队不太可能获得中产阶级例外条款来引进高于底薪的自由球员，独行侠队可能需要考虑交易一名中锋，以补充欧文的控球能力。
一个附加赛之争变成两个
周一晚上对阵国王队的比赛至关重要，因为达拉斯和萨克拉门托都是西部积分榜第六至第十名之间五支球队混战的一部分，从第一名到最后一名之间只有一场半的差距。现在，这种情况基本上已经变成了四支球队争夺最后一个有保障的季后赛席位，以及另一场争夺最后一个附加赛席位的竞争。
让我们从这群球队的顶端开始。金州勇士队目前排名第六，在吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)出战的情况下取得了8胜1负的战绩，他们是明显的热门，很有可能避免参加附加赛（模拟概率为49%），明尼苏达森林狼队（33%）和洛杉矶快船队（23%）仍然很有竞争力。国王队预计比这些球队少赢近两场比赛，看起来注定要排在第九位。
这使得第十名的争夺成为值得关注的焦点。从历史上看，以附加赛最低顺位结束常规赛并不是什么值得奖励的事情。在当前附加赛形式的四年里，排名第十的球队还没有赢得过两场客场比赛并进入季后赛，而且八支排名第十的球队中只有两支避免了在首场附加赛中被淘汰。由于其他伤病，独行侠队已经在ESPN篮球实力指数（BPI）的预测中成为最有可能排在第十位的五支球队。在没有欧文的情况下，他们在模拟中进入前六名的概率现在不到1%。
萨克拉门托和达拉斯之间的预测差距还有两场比赛，这为一支球队超越独行侠队并最终排在西部第十位创造了潜在的机会。对达拉斯来说幸运的是，最有可能的竞争者——太阳队和马刺队——似乎没有能力完成这样的逆袭。
太阳队在2月初的战绩还高于50%三个胜场，但在2月6日交易截止日之前，随着杜兰特的交易传闻愈演愈烈，太阳队开始崩溃。自2月初以来，菲尼克斯的战绩为4胜11负，过去10场比赛的战绩为2胜8负。太阳队仍然在20%的BPI模拟中进入附加赛，但这些预测无法解释菲尼克斯糟糕的球队氛围。
与此同时，文班亚马的缺席减缓了圣安东尼奥队冲击附加赛的步伐。自从他在全明星周末期间缺席以来，马刺队的战绩为2胜5负，其中包括客场输给饱受伤病困扰的新奥尔良鹈鹕队的两场比赛。由于文班亚马的重要性，BPI认为根据目前的人员配置，圣安东尼奥队是附加赛球队中最弱的。
波特兰能发起冲击吗？
波特兰开拓者队是西部附加赛席位之外，唯一一支朝着积极方向发展的球队。在经历了13胜28负的开局后，波特兰队在过去21场比赛中取得了15胜6负的战绩，加入了附加赛的竞争。BPI预测认为，目前这支开拓者队比独行侠队或马刺队都强——但仍然显示球队只有8%的概率进入附加赛。
波特兰队自2021年以来首次进入季后赛面临两个障碍。首先，开拓者队需要在积分榜上弥补 大量 的差距。他们不仅落后达拉斯四场比赛，而且独行侠队还凭借3胜1负的赛季交锋记录掌握着相互交锋的优势。在剩下的20场比赛中，波特兰队必须比达拉斯队多赢五场比赛才能超越独行侠队。
其次，开拓者队在赛季剩余的比赛中面临着更加艰难的赛程。根据BPI的数据，在整个联盟中，只有菲尼克斯队的剩余赛程比波特兰队更难，而达拉斯队最后阶段的难度接近中等水平。开拓者队仍然有四场对阵联盟前三名球队的比赛，包括本周前往波士顿和俄克拉荷马城的客场之旅，以结束他们以4胜1负开局的客场之旅。如果波特兰队能够坚持到3月底，那么开拓者队4月份的赛程将会变得更加轻松。
在4月份的开始，波特兰队将与五支胜率低于50%的球队交手，然后在周末主场迎战勇士队和湖人队，这两支球队届时可能已经锁定了他们的季后赛席位。考虑到开拓者队在赛季中期表现出的漫无目的的状态，甚至考虑波特兰队进入季后赛的可能性都是非凡的。在年轻前锋德尼·阿夫迪亚(Deni Avdija)和图马尼·卡马拉(Toumani Camara)的带动下，以及斯库特·亨德森(Scoot Henderson)在他的第二个赛季中取得的显著进步，波特兰队的发展前景令人鼓舞。
点击查看原文：How Kyrie Irving's injury reshapes the West play-in race
How Kyrie Irving’s injury reshapes the West play-in race
A Dallas Mavericks team that has been hit hard by injuries since a 19-10 start suffered its biggest medical loss of the season Tuesday, when ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that star guard Kyrie Irving had been diagnosed with an ACL tear stemming from his injury early in Monday’s loss to the Sacramento Kings.
Without Luka Doncic, traded to the Los Angeles Lakers a little over a month ago, or the All-Star acquired for him (Anthony Davis, sidelined by an adductor strain), the Mavericks depended heavily on Irving to keep their offense afloat. Dallas is also missing centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II and dealing with a shorter-term injury to forward P.J. Washington, meaning Irving and Klay Thompson were the team’s only regular starters available Monday.
The absence of Irving will linger into the 2025-26 season, causing problems for a team that was hoping to win a championship with Davis after reaching the 2024 NBA Finals led by the duo of Doncic and Irving.
For a team that entered this season with title hopes, the Mavs’ best path to even reaching the postseason is now likely through the Western Conference play-in tournament. But injury woes leave them vulnerable to missing out altogether. The good news? The 10th-place Mavericks have a 3.5-game cushion for the final play-in spot ahead of teams dealing with their own issues. The Phoenix Suns are navigating a stormy season with Kevin Durant at the center of trade talk, while the San Antonio Spurs had their own injury setback with Victor Wembanyama out for the rest of the campaign due to deep vein thrombosis.
Let’s dive into what is next for the Mavericks and break down what to expect from the West play-in race – which now suddenly includes a former bottom-five team that has turned into one of the hottest in the league.
How good is Dallas without Kyrie?
In 10 games this season with neither Doncic nor Irving, the Mavericks have gone 3-7 with a minus-8.5 point differential. That’s inflated by a 43-point loss to the league-leading Cleveland Cavaliers immediately after the shocking Doncic trade, but Dallas has been outscored by a combined 42 points in nine other games without both guards. The Mavericks have predictably tightened defensively with Irving off the court, but struggled to score. Dallas’ offensive rating drops by more than eight points per 100 possessions without him, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
The Mavericks built around the idea of having either Doncic or Irving on the court at all times, which leaves the team with limited ballhandling and playmaking elsewhere on the roster. Spencer Dinwiddie now steps into a critical role as Dallas’ primary point guard, but he isn’t nearly the efficient scorer Doncic and Irving are.
Now would be an ideal time for third-year guard Jaden Hardy to take a larger role. Hardy averages 19 points per 36 minutes and is Dallas’ most explosive athlete on the perimeter, but has seen his playing time fluctuate and left Monday’s game because of an ankle injury. That could leave the Mavericks relying on two-way player Brandon Williams as their backup point guard in the short term. Worse yet, Dallas can’t fill its open 15th roster spot until the final week of the season because the team is too close to a hard cap at the NBA’s lower luxury-tax apron triggered by offseason moves.
The glimmer of hope for Mavericks fans is that Davis could return soon from the adductor strain he suffered in his Dallas debut, giving the team more scoring punch. Davis is scheduled for a reevaluation of his recovery later this week. With Davis filling the massive hole at center created by injuries to both Gafford and Lively, the Mavericks can hope to reorient around defense and at least play .500 ball down the stretch.
Looking ahead, Dallas’ surplus of quality big men could lead to difficult offseason choices. Recovery from ACL tears has typically required at least nine months for NBA players, and often more like a full year, so Irving can’t realistically be expected back for the start of the 2025-26 season. With that in mind, and the team unlikely to have access to its midlevel exception to add free agents for more than the minimum salary, the Mavericks might need to consider dealing one of their centers for a ballhandler to supplement Irving.
One play-in race becomes two
Monday night’s matchup against the Kings was crucial because both Dallas and Sacramento are part of a five-team logjam from sixth to 10th in the West standings with just a game and a half separation from top to bottom. Now, that has essentially changed to a four-team race for the last guaranteed playoff spot, as well as another competition for the final play-in position.
Let’s start at the top of this pack. The Golden State Warriors, in sixth and 8-1 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup, are the clear favorite to avoid the play-in (49% of simulations) with the Minnesota Timberwolves (33%) and LA Clippers (23%) still very much in the mix. The Kings, projected for nearly two wins fewer than any of those teams, appear headed for ninth.
That leaves the race for 10th place as one to watch. Historically, finishing as the lowest seed in the play-in hasn’t been much of a reward. The No. 10 team has yet to win two road games and reach the playoffs in four years of the current play-in tournament format, and just two of eight teams that finished 10th have avoided elimination in their opening play-in game. Already, the Mavericks were the most likely of the five teams to finish 10th in projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) because of their other injuries. Without Irving, they now finish in the top six in less than 1% of simulations.
There’s another two games of separation in the projections between Sacramento and Dallas, creating a potential opening for a team to jump the Mavericks and finish 10th in the West. Fortunately for Dallas, the two likeliest contenders – the Suns and Spurs – appear incapable of making that kind of a run.
The Suns, three games over .500 at the start of February, have collapsed as the Durant trade rumors ramped up ahead of the Feb. 6 deadline. Phoenix is 4-11 since the start of February and 2-8 over the past 10 games. The Suns still reach the play-in in 20% of BPI simulations, but the projections can’t account for Phoenix’s execrable vibes.
Meanwhile, Wembanyama’s absence has slowed San Antonio’s play-in push. The Spurs are 2-5 since he was sidelined during the All-Star break, including a pair of road losses to the injury-plagued New Orleans Pelicans. Because of Wembanyama’s importance, BPI rates San Antonio the weakest of the teams in the play-in mix based on current personnel.
Can Portland make a run?
The Blazers are the one team outside the West play-in spots trending in a positive direction. After a 13-28 start, Portland has gone 15-6 over the past 21 games to join the play-in race. The BPI projection rates the current version of the Blazers better than either the Mavericks or the Spurs --but still shows the team reaching the play-in just 8% of simulations.
There are two obstacles to Portland reaching the postseason for the first time since 2021. First, the Blazers have a lot of ground to make up in the standings. Not only are they four games back of Dallas, but the Mavericks also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series 3-1. Portland would have to win five more games than Dallas out of the final 20 to surpass the Mavericks.
Second, the Blazers face a more difficult schedule down the stretch. Only Phoenix has a harder remaining schedule in the entire league than Portland, per BPI, while the difficulty of Dallas’ final stretch ranks near the middle. The Blazers still have four remaining games against the league’s top three teams, including this week’s trips to Boston and Oklahoma City to close out a road trip they’ve started 4-1. If Portland can stay in the mix through the end of March, the Blazers’ April schedule gets easier.
Portland plays five below-.500 teams to start the month before finishing at home with the Warriors and the Lakers, who could be locked into their playoff positions by the final weekend. Even entertaining the possibility of the Blazers reaching the postseason is remarkable given how directionless they appeared at midseason. Portland’s development, catalyzed by young forwards Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara and dramatic progress from Scoot Henderson in his second season, is encouraging for the future.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN