By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-02-25 01:45:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
是时候评估球星们在新城市的融合情况了。
距离史上最疯狂的交易截止日已经过去了几个星期，现在是时候评估一些熟悉的面孔在新球队的表现了。
卢卡和湖人队显然是最吸引眼球的，但考虑到他仍在从小腿伤势中恢复，样本量还不够大，无法看出一个完全状态的卢卡将如何改变洛杉矶的风格。
所以，在此期间，让我们关注一些不太知名的球员。与“270先生”相比，吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)和德阿隆·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)绝对属于这一类。
让我们从“大脸咖啡”的幕后推手开始。
金州的吉米：谁会想到呢？
最初，吉米·巴克茨的加盟让我摸不着头脑，但到目前为止，它已经带来了回报。
吉米是完美的适配者吗？绝对不是，因为他缺乏投篮能力，但我低估了他的篮球智商将如何以其他方式影响金州勇士队。
在交易之后，勇士队取得了4胜1负的战绩，其中包括三场大胜，唯一输掉的一场比赛也只以4分之差输给了达拉斯。当吉米在场时，金州勇士队的净效率值为+8.5，进攻效率值为119.5（84百分位），防守效率值为110.9（78百分位）。更令人鼓舞的是，勇士队在攻防两端的投篮运气都很糟糕：当吉米在场时，他们的三分命中率仅为31.9%，而对手在他们这边的三分命中率高达41.9%。
简而言之，当这些投篮命中率出现积极回归时，金州勇士队很可能会变得更好。至少他们应该保持同样的水平，但最令人鼓舞的迹象是他们在没有斯蒂芬的情况下表现如何。
当吉米在场而斯蒂芬不在场时，勇士队有着不可持续的+28.9的净效率值，这得益于攻防两端的幸运投篮。换句话说，出了名的投篮不佳的斯蒂芬·库里是他们在同场时运气不好的罪魁祸首。
玩笑归玩笑，由于吉米的存在，即使在斯蒂芬下场时，金州勇士队仍然令人尊敬。他的传球和组织能力为球队提供了一个真正的第二组织点，当吉米和斯蒂芬一起上场时，由于他的聪明跑动和掩护，他就像第二个德雷蒙德。
以下面的这个回合为例。德马尔最初在弱侧放空了吉米，勇士队的分球配合暂时给了斯蒂芬一个空切上篮的机会。这迫使德马尔回防篮下，而吉米有足够的判断力切入内线，完成一个空位抛投。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 23, 2025
即使没有斯蒂芬，德雷蒙德和吉米也利用他们的篮球智商来运转进攻。金州勇士队优先考虑在他们周围安排三名射手，所以当布兰丁·波杰姆斯基(Brandin Podziemski)为吉米在高位设置掩护时，两位国王队的防守者出现了短暂的沟通失误，导致吉米获得了空切上篮的机会。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 23, 2025
在防守端，吉米也很投入。他不再是以前那种单防悍将，但他的智慧和沟通能力使他仍然是一名优秀的团队防守者。同样，类似于德雷蒙德。
吉米·巴特勒的这次防守
（通过 @ NBA）pic.twitter.com/Xa9PyqKCC9— Dime (@ DimeUPROXX) February 22, 2025
勇士队仍然不是查克(Chuck)认为德雷蒙德保证他们会成为的那样的总冠军争夺者，但他们现在有机会击败西部除俄克拉荷马雷霆队之外的任何球队。除了雷霆队之外，我认为我唯一会自信地选择击败金州勇士队的球队是丹佛掘金队，所以很高兴知道斯蒂芬在他的职业生涯暮年仍然有机会赢得一些季后赛系列赛。
福克斯与外星人：最好的朋友？
德阿隆·福克斯在圣安东尼奥的短暂生涯到目前为止讲述了两个故事：虽然他通过了眼球测试，表现出色，但潜在的数据表明情况并非如此。
让我们从后者开始。当福克斯上场时，马刺队的净效率值为-2.5，这仅仅比球队整体的-2.6略好。具体来说，当福克斯上场时，圣安东尼奥的进攻效率值为116.8（72百分位），防守效率值为119.3（15百分位），但更令人担忧的是，当他与 文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama) ，简称「文班」一起上场时，马刺队的进攻会变得更糟（114的进攻效率值），而防守只会略有改善（118.3）。
幸运的是，这两个数据都应该有所改善。当这对充满活力的二人组上场时，圣安东尼奥的三分命中率低得不可持续，只有33.3%，而且球队还不习惯与福克斯一起比赛：在每场比赛中，由于他的队友没有预料到球的到来，福克斯都会出现许多掉球的情况。随着时间的推移，这些潜在的助攻将会实现，并且许多传球将会转化为空位投篮。
在防守端，马刺队也允许对手在他们的篮筐附近投出76.2%的命中率，请记住，这是在文班上场的情况下。考虑到对手在文班防守他们时（尤其是在篮筐附近）的投篮命中率下降幅度最大，我认为这仅仅是纯粹的方差和小样本量的作用。由于疾病和肩部发现血栓，这位“外星人”最近几周也感到疲劳，这也解释了他最近的萎靡不振。假设文班完全康复，马刺队下赛季在他上场时将再次成为联盟前十的防守球队。
这对组合最令人兴奋的方面是他们在挡拆中的协同作用。到目前为止，我们只看到了其中的一些片段，但已经很明显，福克斯-文班组合可能会产生联盟中最致命的二人配合之一。
福克斯今年场均7.1次挡拆进攻，在联盟中排名第18位，而他在这些回合中得到1.07分，在联盟中挡拆进攻次数排名前30的球员中并列第二。同时，文班作为挡拆顺下人的频率在联盟中排名前十，他得到1.17分在这些球员中排名第四，总体排名在第64个百分位。
到目前为止，我们看到的几个回合都像你期望的那样精彩。在一个传统的挡拆战术中，福克斯的速度让他可以摆脱联盟中几乎所有的防守者，迫使大个子站出来阻止潜在的突破。因此，文班将获得空中接力的机会：
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
另一种利用福克斯速度的创造性打法是让他摆脱一个定点掩护，并立即接到手递手传球。这会让防守方手忙脚乱，并创造出许多好的机会：福克斯可以获得一个空位突破的机会，或者他可以将球转移给移动中的文班。第三种选择是将球传给角落里的空位射手，因为他和文班的牵制力都会迫使防守方进行协防，这可以在下面看到。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
如果马刺队想要玩点花样，他们也可以运行一个倒置战术，让文班作为主要的进攻发起者。他的牵制力会将对方的大个子拉出禁区，而福克斯的速度让他能够很好地冲击篮筐。哦，我有没有提到这位明星后卫在篮筐四英尺范围内的投篮命中率高达67%，排名在第76个百分位？
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
总而言之，文班-福克斯的组合比我最初预期的更具杀伤力。福克斯的平均投篮和组织能力让我对他的适配性有些怀疑，但他的速度和终结能力为进攻带来了其他维度，这应该使他们成为未来几年中最好的二人组之一。
假设文班下赛季能够100%恢复健康，那么圣安东尼奥的争冠窗口已经正式开启。
快船队怎么会这么出色？！
对于一支许多人预测可能会进入乐透区的球队（当然不是我……），快船队让所有人大吃一惊，并且整个赛季都保持着季后赛席位。
哦，我有没有提到 科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard) 只打了16场比赛？
即使“卡哇伊”缺席了本赛季的大部分比赛，快船队仍然保持着+2.5的净效率值，这得益于他们精英级别的109.7的防守效率值——在联盟中排名第二。他们最常用的阵容是詹姆斯·哈登(James Harden)、克里斯·邓恩(Kris Dunn)、诺曼·鲍威尔(Norman Powell)、小特伦斯·曼(Terance Mann)和伊维察·祖巴茨(Ivica Zubac)，这个阵容的净效率值更高，达到了+10.3，防守效率值也只有104.5。
简而言之，这支球队中的每个人都知道自己的角色。哈登是主要的组织者，科怀/鲍威尔是主要的得分手，祖巴茨是精英级别的防守/篮板大个子。与此同时，他们的角色球员都是令人讨厌的防守者，他们知道如何在进攻中转移球和切入。
特别是祖巴茨，一直是洛杉矶快船队攻防两端的关键人物。在防守端，他将对手在篮筐六英尺范围内的投篮命中率限制在53.5%，比他们通常的命中率低9.7%——这是联盟中最好的数据之一。祖巴茨的正负值差为+14，领先全队，而且可能会让人惊讶地发现，他对进攻的影响（当他上场时，快船队每100回合多得7.4分）实际上大于他对防守的影响（当他在场时，洛杉矶快船队每100回合少失6.6分）。
祖巴茨与哈登之间的挡拆化学反应尤其突出。如果对方的大个子全力盯防哈登，祖巴茨在中距离的短距离区域内会特别危险，他在这个区域的投篮命中率高达50%（81个百分位），而且他的抛投尤其致命。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
如果大个子决定坚持盯防祖巴茨，哈登就可以轻松地冲击篮筐，这在同一场比赛的后面就发生了。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
祖巴茨也是一个危险的低位球员，他场均低位单打次数排名第三，并且在这些进攻回合中得到1.01分（58个百分位）。因此，如果他遇到了错位的情况，对方球队就需要进行包夹，这会让他被低估的传球能力得以发挥。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
然而，可以说他最大的进攻优势是他的篮板球能力。祖巴茨的13%的进攻篮板率排名在第90个百分位，并且为快船队提供了许多二次进攻的机会，这有助于快船队维持着乏善可陈的半场进攻。
当然，房间里的大象仍然是科怀的健康状况。自从伤愈复出以来，“卡哇伊”在场均不到27分钟的时间里，以45.9%的投篮命中率仅得到16.9分。即便如此，重要的是要记住，在因前交叉韧带撕裂缺席了整个赛季之后，他在2022-23赛季初也经历了类似的情况。眼球测试表明，科怀仍然在利用他的力量和技巧来达到他的位置，而且他从来都不是一个依赖超级运动能力的球员。
产量下降仅仅是因为科怀仍然在努力恢复他腿部的爆发力。他的投篮数据也反映了这一点：他在两分球的命中率不到一半，而他通常在这个区域的命中率在50%以上。同样，这种情况也发生在2022-23赛季初。
我完全期望科怀在本赛季会有一个阶段，让人想起他之前的巅峰状态。即便如此，我预计这支快船队不会超过一支充满活力、可能会在第一轮制造冷门的球队，仅此而已。
如果科怀能够在完整的季后赛中保持完全健康，那将会改变我的看法，但这就像试图找到大脚怪一样：这种生物根本不存在。
本周，请查看埃里克(Eric.Fritts)的文章，该文章更深入地探讨了文班的诊断结果。这肯定是一个可怕的局面，但埃里克很好地阐述了保持乐观的理由。
感谢您的阅读！
所有数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: Jimmy in the Bay, a Fox by the River Walk, and the frisky Clippers
Around the NBA: Jimmy in the Bay, a Fox by the River Walk, and the frisky Clippers
It’s time to evaluate how stars are integrating in their new cities.
It’s been a few weeks since the craziest trade deadline ever, so it’s time to evaluate how some familiar faces are performing on their new teams.
Luka and the Lakers are obviously the biggest draw, but given that he’s still working back from his calf injury, there isn’t a big enough sample to see how a fully in-tune Luka will change LA’s style.
So, in the meantime, let’s stick to some lesser names. Jimmy Butler and De’Aaron Fox definitely fall under that category when compared to Mr. 270 himself.
Let’s start with the man behind Big Face Coffee.
Jimmy in the Bay: who woulda thunk?
The Jimmy Buckets acquisition initially had me scratching my head, but so far, it’s paid dividends.
Is Jimmy the perfect fit? Definitely not, due to his lack of shooting, but what I underestimated was how his basketball IQ would allow him to impact Golden State in other ways.
The Warriors are 4-1 following the trade, with three blowout victories and dropping the one game to Dallas by just four points. With Jimmy on the floor, Golden State is +8.5 with a 119.5 offensive rating (84th percentile) and 110.9 defensive rating (78th). Even more promising is the fact that the Warriors have had bad shooting luck on both sides of the ball: they’re making just 31.9% off their threes with Jimmy on while conceding 41.9% in their own end.
Simply put, Golden State might very well be even better when those shooting splits experience some positive regression. They should play at the same level at the very least, but the most encouraging sign is how they’ve performed without Steph.
With Jimmy on and Wardell off, the Warriors have an unsustainable +28.9 net rating due to lucky shooting on both sides of the ball. In other words, notoriously poor shooter Steph Curry is responsible for their bad luck when they share the court.
Jokes aside, Golden State is respectable even when Steph is on the bench due to Jimmy’s presence. His passing and playmaking give the team a legit secondary creator, and when Jimmy plays with Steph, he acts like a second Draymond due to his smart cutting and screening.
Take the play below as an example. DeMar initially sags off of Jimmy on the weak side, and the Warriors’ split action temporarily gives Steph an open lane to the rim. This forces DeMar to help down low, and Jimmy has the wherewithal to cut inside for an open floater.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 23, 2025
Even without Steph, Draymond and Jimmy have used their basketball IQ to make the offense work. Golden State makes it a priority to surround them with three shooters, so when Brandin Podziemski set a screen for Jimmy up top, the two Kings defenders had a momentary lapse in communication that resulted in Jimmy getting an open lane to the rim.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 23, 2025
Defensively, Jimmy’s locked in too. He’s not the same man-to-man defender he used to be, but his smarts and communication allow him to still be an elite team defender. Again, akin to Draymond.
This defense from Jimmy Butler
(via @ NBA)pic.twitter.com/Xa9PyqKCC9— Dime (@ DimeUPROXX) February 22, 2025
The Warriors still aren’t the championship contenders that Chuck Draymond guaranteed them to be, but they now have a shot at beating anyone in the West outside of OKC. Other than the Thunder, I think the only team I’d confidently pick against Golden State would be Denver, so it’s exciting to know that Steph still has a shot at winning some playoff series during the twilight of his career.
The Fox and the Alien: best friends?
De’Aaron Fox’s short in San Antonio has so far been the tale of two stories: while he passes the eye test with flying colors, the underlying numbers suggest otherwise.
Let’s start with the latter. The Spurs have a -2.5 net rating with Fox playing, which is barely better than the team’s overall rating of -2.6. Specifically, San Antonio has a 116.8 ORTG (72nd percentile) and a 119.3 DRTG (15th) when Fox is on, but more concerning is the fact that the Spurs’ offense gets worse when he shares the court with Wemby (114 ORTG), and the defense only improves marginally (118.3).
Fortunately, both figures should improve. San Antonio’s making an unsustainably low 33.3% of their threes when their dynamic duo plays, and the team isn’t used to playing with Fox yet: in every game, there are numerous dropped passes that come from Fox due to his teammates not expecting the ball. Those potential assists will be actualized with time, and many of those passes will lead to open shots.
Defensively, the Spurs are also allowing 76.2% shooting at their rim, and remember, this is with Wemby playing. Given that opponents see the biggest dropoff in their field goal percentage with Wemby guarding them (and especially at the rim), I’m chalking this up to just pure variance and small sample size theatre. The Alien has also felt fatigued the last few weeks due to an illness and the discovery of a blood clot in his shoulder, which explains his recent lethargic play. Assuming Wemby makes a full recovery, the Spurs will once again be a top-10 defense next season whenever he’s on the floor.
The most exciting aspect of the duo is the synergy between them in the pick and roll. We’ve only seen glimpses of it so far, but it’s already evident that the Fox-Wemby combo could produce one of the most lethal two-man games in the league.
Fox’s average of 7.1 P&R possessions per game this year ranks 18th league-wide, and the 1.07 points he scores on such plays is tied for the second-best number among every player within the top 30 for P&R volume. Meanwhile, Wemby is top-10 in the league in terms of frequency as a roll man, and the 1.17 points he scores is tied for fourth among such players, and in the 64th percentile overall.
The few plays we’ve seen so far have looked as beautiful as you’d expect. In a traditional P&R set, Fox’s speed lets him blow by almost any defender in the league, forcing the big to step up and contain a potential drive. As a result, Wemby will be open for the lob:
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
Another creative play that puts Fox’s speed to use is to have him come off of a pindown and immediately receive a hand-off. This leaves the defense scrambling and opens up numerous good looks: Fox could have an open driving lane, or he could dump it off to Wemby on the move. The third option would be passing it to an open shooter in the corner, as both his and Wemby’s gravity would force the defense to send help, which can be seen below.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
If the Spurs are feeling cheeky, they could also run an inverted set with Wemby as the primary initiator. His gravity will force the opposing big out of the paint, and Fox’s speed allows him to get a good look at the rim. Oh, did I mention that the star guard’s also shooting 67% within four feet of the basket, which ranks in the 76th percentile?
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
Adding everything up, the Wemby-Fox pairing is more lethal than I initially anticipated. Fox’s average shooting and playmaking skills made me somewhat skeptical of his fit, but his speed and finishing abilities bring other dimensions to the offense that should make this one of the best duos for years to come.
Assuming Wemby comes back 100% next season, San Antonio’s contention window has officially begun.
How are the Clippers this good?!?
For a team whom many predicted could finish in the lottery (definitely not me, of course…), the Clippers have surprised everyone and held on to a playoff spot for the entire season.
Oh, and did I mention that Kawhi’s only played 16 games?
Even with the Klaw missing most of the season, the Clippers still have a respectable +2.5 net rating that’s fuelled by an elite 109.7 DRTG — good for second league-wide. Their most used lineup of Harden-Dunn-Powell-Jones Jr.-Ivica is even better, with a +10.3 net rating and a 104.5 DRTG.
Simply put, everyone on this team knows their role. Harden is the primary playmaker, Kawhi/Powell are the primary scorers, and Zubac is the elite defensive/rebounding big. Meanwhile, their supporting players are all pesky defenders who know how to move the ball and cut on offense.
Zubac, in particular, has been LA’s lynchpin on both ends. Defensively, he’s held opposing players to 53.5% shooting within six feet of the basket, which is 9.7% lower than their usual percentage — one of the best marks in the league. Zubac’s on/off net rating of +14 leads the team, and it might be surprising to find out that his offensive impact (the Clippers score 7.4 more points per 100 possessions with him playing) is actually bigger than his defensive one (LA concedes 6.6 points fewer when he’s on).
Zubac’s pick-and-roll chemistry with Harden stands out particularly. If the opposing big commits to Harden, Zubac is particularly dangerous in the short mid-range, where he makes 50% of all shots (81st percentile), and his floater is especially lethal.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
If the big decides to stick to Zubac, Harden can get easy looks at the rim, which happened later on in the same game.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
Zubac is also a dangerous post player, averaging the third most post-ups per game and scoring 1.01 points (58th percentile) on such possessions. As a result, opposing teams need to send doubles if he ever has a mismatch, which opens up his underrated passing game.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) February 24, 2025
Arguably his biggest offensive strength, though, is his rebounding. Zubac’s 13% offensive rebounding rate ranks in the 90th percentile, and giving the Clippers numerous second-chance opportunities has helped keep afloat a lacklustre half-court offense.
Of course, the elephant in the room remains the health of Kawhi. Since returning from injury, the Klaw has averaged just 16.9 points on 45.9% shooting in under 27 minutes a game. Even so, it’s important to remember that he had a similar stretch to start the 2022-23 season after missing the entire previous year due to a torn ACL. The eye test suggests that Kawhi’s still using his strength and craftiness to get to his spots, and he was never a player who relied on supreme athleticism.
The dropoff in production has simply been due to Kawhi still trying to regain some pop in his legs. His shooting splits reflect this, too: he’s making less than half of his twos when he’s normally in the mid-50s from that area. Again, that happened at the start of the 2022-23 campaign, as well.
I fully expect Kawhi to have a stretch this season where he’s reminiscent of his vintage self. Even so, I don’t expect this Clippers squad to be anything more than a frisky team that might pull off a first-round upset, and nothing more.
Having a fully healthy Kawhi for a full playoff run would change my tune, but that’s like trying to find Bigfoot: such a creature simply doesn’t exist.
This week, please check out Eric’s article that dives deeper into Wemby’s diagnosis. It’s a scary situation, for sure, but Eric does a great job of laying out reasons for optimism.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock