By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-02-21 04:07:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
编者注： 在 文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)周四因右肩深静脉血栓被宣布赛季报销，从而无法达到获得奖项评选资格的 65 场比赛最低要求后，本文已更新。
随着NBA在全明星周末后重新进入正轨，联盟各项个人奖项的竞争格局已经逐渐清晰。
在还剩三分之一赛程的情况下，我们现在对哪些球员能够达到赢得包括最有价值球员和最佳防守球员在内的主要奖项所需的65场比赛门槛有了一个大致的了解——尽管圣安东尼奥马刺队球星文班亚马赛季报销的消息表明了65场比赛规则可能对奖项竞争产生的影响。
虽然文班亚马的缺席为最佳防守球员奖项创造了一个机会，但其他主要奖项的热门人选——或者，就进步最快球员而言，是并列热门人选——已经浮出水面。
在ESPN BET当前赔率的帮助下，并着眼于高级数据对球员表现的揭示，让我们更仔细地看看NBA主要奖项的竞争将如何展开，包括 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)是否能够取代三届得主 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)成为联盟 MVP。
跳转至奖项：
MVP | 最佳防守球员
最佳新秀 | 最佳第六人
进步最快球员 | 最佳教练
NBA 最佳阵容
MVP
热门人选：
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，后卫，俄克拉荷马城雷霆
ESPN BET 赔率： -550
在上周 ESPN 的 蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)进行的 MVP 模拟投票中，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大领先，凭借着一项多年来无人能及的成就超越了约基奇：在结合了数据统计与对球队表现影响（根据队友、对手和运气进行调整）的最先进的价值数据统计中超过了约基奇。
虽然约基奇在 LEBRON 影响力指标上略胜一筹，但吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在估计正负值 (EPM) 胜场方面表现得更加出色，而约基奇自 2020-21 赛季以来一直在这方面领先。 加上俄克拉荷马城雷霆在常规赛中的统治力（联盟最佳的 104.5 防守效率），吉尔杰斯-亚历山大当之无愧地成为了 MVP 的热门人选。
其他竞争者：
尼古拉·约基奇，中锋，丹佛掘金
ESPN BET 赔率： +350
在模拟投票后，MVP 赔率略有收窄，在 “The Hoop Collective” 播客中，邦坦普斯阐述了约基奇赢得第四座 MVP 的途径：如果掘金队能够强势升至西部第二。 在 11 胜 10 负的开局后排名第九的丹佛掘金队，在约基奇场均三双的情况下，已经以半个胜场的差距紧追孟菲斯灰熊队，争夺西部第二。
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，前锋，密尔沃基雄鹿
ESPN BET 赔率： +10000
本赛季早期的三强争霸可能已经缩小到两人之争，因为 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)因小腿拉伤缺席了全明星周末前的最后六场比赛。 为了保持 MVP 以及更重要的最佳阵容的资格，他不能再缺席超过六场比赛。 在此之前，阿德托昆博的高级数据并没有像你根据他场均 31.8 分和 61% 的投篮命中率所想象的那么出色。 不利于阿德托昆博价值的一个因素是：他的罚球命中率创职业生涯新低，仅为 58%。
最佳防守球员
热门人选：
贾伦·杰克逊，前锋，孟菲斯灰熊
ESPN BET 赔率： -120
随着文班亚马退出竞争，最佳防守球员的争夺已经从最明朗的热门人选（文班亚马，赔率为 -2500）变成了完全开放的局面。 杰克逊在两年前曾赢得过这个奖项，并立即被认为是热门人选，但选民现在需要花一些时间来评估他的情况。 自 2022-23 赛季以来，杰克逊的盖帽率下降了近一半，他的防守篮板率也有所下降。 EPM 指标仍然认为杰克逊是一名每回合排名前 15 的防守者，排在他身后的有很多兼职球员，他们没有资格获得这个奖项，但 LEBRON 影响力指标则更加悲观。 杰克逊在那里排名第 74 位。
其他竞争者：
埃文·莫布里，前锋，克利夫兰骑士
ESPN BET 赔率： +120
与杰克逊一样， 埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley)也是 2022-23 赛季最佳防守球员的竞争者（在投票中排名第三），他效力于一支防守排名前十的球队。 EPM 指标认为莫布里仅次于杰克逊，但莫布里的 LEBRON 防守评分要高得多，部分原因是他是一名更强大的防守篮板手。
吕冈茨·多尔特，后卫，俄克拉荷马城雷霆
ESPN BET 赔率： +2000
马库斯·坎比 (Marcus Camby)（2006-07 赛季）是上一个所在球队的防守效率排名在前五名之外的最佳防守球员，而骑士队和灰熊队都不符合这个标准。 在领先的竞争者中， 吕冈茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort)是唯一一名效力于防守排名前五球队的球员，尽管雷霆队联盟最佳的防守效率更多的是依靠团队合作，而不是依靠一名占据统治地位的防守者。
戴森·丹尼尔斯，后卫，亚特兰大老鹰
ESPN BET 赔率： +1500
随着文班亚马的消息传出， 戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels)的赔率大幅下降。 他在抢断方面表现出了历史性的赛季，场均接近 3 次——是自 1991-92 赛季的 约翰·斯托克顿 (John Stockton)以来最高的。 然而，这个奖项很少颁给后卫，这是理所当然的。 在球队层面上，护框往往具有更大的影响。 尽管如此，丹尼尔斯可能会从文班亚马赛季报销的预后中受益，从而颠覆了比赛。
伊维察·祖巴茨，中锋，洛杉矶快船
ESPN BET 赔率： 不适用
伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac)甚至没有上榜，但当选民重新考虑最佳防守球员时，他值得考虑。 祖巴茨在防守 EPM 中排名第六，仅次于文班亚马，领先于任何其他有力的竞争者，并且在 LEBRON 防守评分中排名前 15 位。 祖巴茨推动了快船队的防守，他们的防守效率在每回合排名中仅次于俄克拉荷马城雷霆队，并且他的护框数据与杰克逊相当，并且遥遥领先于该组中的篮板统计数据。
最佳新秀
热门人选：
斯蒂芬·卡斯尔，后卫，圣安东尼奥马刺
ESPN BET 赔率： +135
斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)不太符合最佳新秀的常规标准，后者通常是场均得分、篮板和助攻总和最高的球员。 自 2003-04 赛季以来，在至少出战 40 场比赛的情况下——排除了本赛季的顶级新秀，因赛季报销的膝盖手术而缺席的费城 76 人队后卫 贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain)——这些统计数据的领先者赢得了除两个赛季以外的所有赛季的最佳新秀：2016-17 赛季的 马尔科姆·布罗格登 (Malcolm Brogdon) 击败了领先者 达里奥·萨里奇 (Dario Saric)，以及 2021-22 赛季的 斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 击败了领先者 凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)。
华盛顿奇才队中锋 亚历克斯·萨尔 (Alex Sarr)在场均得分、篮板和助攻总和方面名列前茅，但并未进入最佳新秀赔率的前五名——这表明选民可能会因为这位 2 号选秀权在联盟最差的球队中场均出场时间更长而对其进行惩罚。 卡斯尔也已经成为这个级别中公认的最佳长期潜力新秀，这有助于他的情况。
其他竞争者：
凯尔·威尔，中锋，迈阿密热火
ESPN BET 赔率： +325
凯尔·威尔 (Kel’el Ware)在 12 月的大部分时间里都退出了迈阿密的轮换阵容，自从与 巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo)一起成为首发后，他一直在努力争取。 在 12 场首发中，他场均得到 11.5 分、9.8 个篮板和 1.2 次助攻，这无疑是所有新秀中最好的表现。 如果威尔能够在赛季剩余的时间里保持这种状态，他就有很大的机会在没有任何征兆的情况下获得最佳新秀。
扎克·埃迪，中锋，孟菲斯灰熊
ESPN BET 赔率： +1400
杰伦·威尔斯，前锋，孟菲斯灰熊
ESPN BET 赔率： +850
如果选民想要奖励一名为获胜球队做出贡献的新秀， 扎克·埃迪 (Zach Edey)和 杰伦·威尔斯 (Jaylen Wells)是最佳选择。 威尔斯在 EPM 胜场方面排名第一，埃迪在 EPM 胜场方面排名第二。 然而，选民很少以这种方式选择获奖者，而且他们也没有拿出通常会转化的那种数据统计。
最佳第六人
热门人选：
佩顿·普里查德，后卫，波士顿凯尔特人
ESPN BET 赔率： -160
在可能获得最佳第六人资格的球员中， 佩顿·普里查德 (Payton Pritchard)无疑是最有价值的，在 EPM 胜场中排名第 25 位。 他场均得到 13.8 分，三分球命中率为 41%，在他尝试的罕见的两分球中命中率为 63%，在 NBA 最好的球队之一中展现出了极高的效率。
其他竞争者：
德安德烈·亨特，前锋，克利夫兰骑士
ESPN BET 赔率： +300
在交易截止日期前从亚特兰大老鹰队转会到东部联盟最好的球队可能会凸显 德安德烈·亨特 (De’Andre Hunter)本赛季的贡献。 他以场均 18.8 分领先所有替补球员，同时三分球命中率创职业生涯新高，达到 40%。 然而，另一方面，本赛季与骑士队的三位全明星球员并肩作战可能会阻碍亨特的场均数据。 而且，高级数据实际上认为另一位骑士队球员是球队最有价值的替补：后卫 泰·杰罗姆 (Ty Jerome)，他给人的印象是普里查德的翻版，三分球命中率为 43%，并且在场均仅 19.1 分钟的时间里得到 11.4 分。
马利克·比斯利，后卫，底特律活塞
ESPN BET 赔率： +500
马利克·比斯利 (Malik Beasley)很有可能创下 NBA 替补球员单赛季三分球命中数最多的纪录，他此前曾两次进入前 10 名。 他场均命中接近 4 个三分球，只需要再命中 46 个就可以超过 巴迪·希尔德 (Buddy Hield)，后者在 2021-22 赛季的替补角色中命中了 262 个三分球。
阿门·汤普森，前锋，休斯顿火箭
ESPN BET 赔率： +4000
如果 阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)有资格，他将有令人信服的最佳第六人案例。 然而，他本赛季只替补出场了 27 次。 鉴于汤普森在他 25 场首发比赛中表现出色，场均得到 16.5 分、9.6 个篮板和 4.8 次助攻，即使现任大前锋 贾巴里·史密斯 (Jabari Smith Jr.)在全明星周末后回归，他似乎也不太可能回到替补席。
进步最快球员
并列热门人选：
凯德·坎宁安，后卫，底特律活塞
ESPN BET 赔率： 均等
在他职业生涯的第四个赛季，这位 2021 年选秀的状元已经成长为一名全明星球员，并且是季后赛竞争者底特律活塞队的领袖。 坎宁安将他的使用率提高到 33%，而没有牺牲效率，并且场均助攻数创职业生涯新高，达到 9.4 次，高于上赛季的 7.5 次。
诺曼·鲍威尔，后卫，洛杉矶快船
ESPN BET 赔率： 均等
诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell)进步最快球员的案例更加非比寻常。 在他 NBA 生涯的第 10 个赛季，31 岁的鲍威尔达到了新的高度，场均得到职业生涯最高的 24.2 分，此前从未超过 19.0 分。 鲍威尔拥有职业生涯最高的使用率 (27%) 和最佳真实投篮命中率 (.633)。 在至少出场 1,000 分钟且使用率至少为 25% 的球员中，只有四名球员的得分效率高于鲍威尔：约基奇、吉尔杰斯-亚历山大、 卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)和 凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)。
只有一名球员在 30 多岁时赢得了进步最快球员奖： 达雷尔·阿姆斯特朗 (Darrell Armstrong)在 1998-99 赛季，当时他 30 岁。
另一个竞争者：
泰勒·希罗，后卫，迈阿密热火
ESPN BET 赔率： +2000
博彩市场认为这是一场两人之争，但 泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro)是一个潜在的考虑因素。 他有一个好故事，在全明星周末首次亮相全明星赛并赢得了三分球大赛。 然而，希罗在数据统计方面的进步不如坎宁安令人印象深刻，而且是在迈阿密滑落到胜率低于 50% 的情况下实现的。
最佳教练
热门人选：
肯尼·阿特金森，克利夫兰骑士
ESPN BET 赔率： -700
通常，这个奖项是根据球队的成功和超出预期的表现相结合来颁发的。 克利夫兰骑士队正在与雷霆队争夺联盟最佳战绩，他们在这两个类别中都达到了最高水平。 通过赢得接下来的五场比赛，克利夫兰骑士队有可能与 2004-05 赛季的菲尼克斯太阳队并列，成为有记录以来最早达到赛季胜负盘口（48.5 胜）0.500 或更高的球队，有可能仅在 59 场比赛中做到这一点。
其他竞争者：
J.B. 比克斯塔夫，底特律活塞
ESPN BET 赔率： +1600
有趣的是， J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff)，阿特金森在克利夫兰取代的教练，是他角逐年度最佳教练奖的最有力的竞争者之一。 活塞队是本赛季继波特兰开拓者队之后第二支达到胜负盘口的球队，并且有望自 2019 年以来首次进入季后赛。
NBA 历史上最接近的比较可能是 科顿·菲茨西蒙斯 (Cotton Fitzsimmons)在 1978 年离开即将迁往圣地亚哥并更名为快船队的布法罗勇敢者队，转而执教堪萨斯城国王队。 在 吉恩·舒 (Gene Shue)的带领下，快船队的胜场增加了 16 场，而菲茨西蒙斯带领国王队取得了 48 胜，胜场增加了 17 场，并且四年以来首次进入季后赛。 事实上，这两支球队后来都搬到了不同的城市，这表明比克斯塔夫的情况几乎没有先例可循。
伊梅·乌度卡，休斯顿火箭
ESPN BET 赔率： +1200
泰勒·詹金斯，孟菲斯灰熊
ESPN BET 赔率： +2500
赔率认为 伊梅·乌度卡 (Ime Udoka)是最有可能赢得年度最佳教练奖的第二人选，仅次于阿特金森，领先于比克斯塔夫，詹金斯和俄克拉荷马城雷霆队卫冕冠军 马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault)并列第四。 我不确定这是否有道理，因为休斯顿火箭队在积分榜上落后于孟菲斯灰熊队 2.5 场。 这几乎是两支球队在胜负盘口总数上的差异，灰熊队领先火箭队三场。 如果孟菲斯灰熊队能够保持西部第二的位置，我认为詹金斯很有可能成为最终入围者。
NBA 最佳阵容
NBA 最佳阵容一阵
- 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，密尔沃基雄鹿
- 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马城雷霆
- 尼古拉·约基奇，丹佛掘金
- 多诺万·米切尔，克利夫兰骑士
- 杰森·塔图姆，波士顿凯尔特人
由于 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)已经失去了获得奖项的资格，因此出现了一个加入 NBA 最佳阵容一阵的机会。 我将这个位置给了米切尔，他在模拟投票中排名第五，如果克利夫兰骑士队最终获得 NBA 最佳战绩，他将成为一个特别有力的候选人。 另一个问题是阿德托昆博是否能够保持资格。 其他三位一阵的锁定人选都有望达到 65 场比赛的最低要求。
NBA 最佳阵容二阵
- 杰伦·布伦森，纽约尼克斯
- 凯文·杜兰特，菲尼克斯太阳
- 安东尼·爱德华兹，明尼苏达森林狼
- 贾伦·杰克逊，孟菲斯灰熊
- 卡尔-安东尼·唐斯，明尼苏达森林狼
文班亚马不再有资格进入 NBA 最佳阵容，这为二阵打开了一个名额。 我选择了在模拟投票中排名前十的其他四名球员，以及杜兰特。 爱德华兹在媒体投票中落后于 斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)，未能入选全明星首发阵容，但我怀疑这部分原因是比赛在金州勇士队的主场举行。 杰克逊在西部前场媒体投票中排名第五，但现在作为孟菲斯球队中最好的球员获得了更多的赞誉，孟菲斯球队在西部排名第二。
NBA 最佳阵容三阵
- 凯德·坎宁安，底特律活塞
- 斯蒂芬·库里，金州勇士
- 达柳斯·加兰，克利夫兰骑士
- 勒布朗·詹姆斯，洛杉矶湖人
- 埃文·莫布里，克利夫兰骑士
这里的事情变得有趣起来。 库里和詹姆斯在去年入选 NBA 最佳阵容三队后，感觉是剩下的最安全的选择。 在年龄谱的另一端，我会在从一大群竞争者中选择 达柳斯·加兰 (Darius Garland)之前，先选择一对 2021 年选秀球员（坎宁安和莫布里）作为接下来的两个热门人选，这些竞争者包括 达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard)， 多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis)， 阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun)和 帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam)。
点击查看原文：NBA awards: Picks for MVP, All-NBA teams, Rookie of the Year
NBA awards: Picks for MVP, All-NBA teams, Rookie of the Year
Editors’ note: This story has been updated after Victor Wembanyama was ruled out for the rest of the season Thursday with deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder, thus making him ineligible to reach the 65-game minimum for awards consideration.
As the NBA picks back up in earnest after the All-Star break, the competition for the league’s individual awards has taken shape.
With a third of the schedule remaining, we have a good idea now which players will reach the 65-game threshold necessary to win major awards, including Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year – although Thursday’s news that San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama will miss the remainder of the regular season shows the impact the 65-game rule can have on races.
While Wembanyama’s absence has created an opening for Defensive Player of the Year, favorites – or, in the case of Most Improved Player, co-favorites – have emerged for the other major awards.
With the help of current odds from ESPN BET and an eye on what advanced statistics tell us about player performance, let’s take a closer look at how the races for the NBA’s major awards can be expected to play out, including whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can unseat three-time winner Nikola Jokic to become the league’s MVP.
Jump to an award:\
**MVP | Def. Player\
Rookie | Sixth Man\
Most Improved | Coach\
All-NBA teams**
MVP
The favorite:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Oklahoma City Thunder\
ESPN BET odds: -550
The leader in the MVP straw poll conducted last week by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps, Gilgeous-Alexander has moved ahead of Jokic by virtue of doing something nobody has done in years: surpassing Jokic in the most advanced value stats that combine box scores with impact on team performance (adjusted for teammates), opponents and luck.
Although Jokic has a slight edge in the LEBRON impact metric, Gilgeous-Alexander has more comfortably outperformed him in estimated plus-minus (EPM) wins, which Jokic has led every season since 2020-21. Add in Oklahoma City’s regular-season dominance (a league-best 104.5 defensive rating) and Gilgeous-Alexander has rightfully emerged as the MVP favorite.
Other contenders:
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets\
ESPN BET odds: +350
The MVP odds narrowed slightly after the straw poll, and on “The Hoop Collective” podcast, Bontemps laid out the path for Jokic to win a fourth MVP if the Nuggets surge into second in the West. Ninth in the standings after an 11-10 start, Denver has moved within a half-game of the Memphis Grizzlies for second with Jokic averaging a triple-double.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks\
ESPN BET odds: +10000
What was a three-player race early in the season has likely narrowed to two with Antetokounmpo missing the Bucks’ last six games before the All-Star break because of a calf strain. He can miss no more than six games the rest of the way to remain eligible for MVP, and more importantly, All-NBA. Before that, Antetokounmpo’s advanced stats weren’t quite as strong as you’d think based on his averages of 31.8 points on 61% shooting. One factor working against Antetokounmpo’s value: He’s shooting a career-low 58% at the foul line.
Defensive Player of the Year
The favorite:
**Jaren Jackson Jr., F, Memphis Grizzlies\
ESPN BET odds:** -120
With Wembanyama out of the mix, Defensive Player of the Year has gone from the clearest favorite (Wembanyama, who was minus-2500 to win) to being wide open. Two years removed from winning this award, Jackson was immediately installed as the favorite, but voters will now need to take some time to process his case. Jackson’s block rate has dropped by nearly half since 2022-23, and his defensive rebounding rate has also decreased. The EPM metric still rates Jackson as a top-15 defender on a per-possession basis, behind a number of part-time players who won’t be eligible for this award, but LEBRON impact metric is much more pessimistic. Jackson rates 74th there.
Other contenders:
**Evan Mobley, F, Cleveland Cavaliers\
ESPN BET odds:** +120
Like Jackson, Mobley was a contender for Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23 (finishing third in the voting) who anchors a top-10 defensive team. EPM rates Mobley just behind Jackson, but Mobley has a far superior LEBRON defensive rating in part because he’s a much stronger defensive rebounder.
**Luguentz Dort, G, Oklahoma City Thunder\
ESPN BET odds:** +2000
Marcus Camby (2006-07) was the last Defensive Player of the Year whose team’s defense was outside the top five, and neither the Cavaliers nor Grizzlies qualify by that standard. Of the leading contenders, Dort is the lone player on a top-five defense, although the Thunder’s league-best defensive rating is built more by committee than one dominant defender.
Dyson Daniels, G, Atlanta Hawks\
ESPN BET odds: +1500
Daniels’ odds dropped dramatically with the Wembanyama news. He’s having a historic season in terms of steals, averaging nearly three per game – the most since John Stockton in 1991-92. However, this award rarely goes to guards, and rightfully so. Rim protection tends to have more impact at the team level. Still, Daniels could benefit from Wembanyama’s season-ending prognosis upending the race.
Ivica Zubac, C, LA Clippers\
ESPN BET odds: N/A
Zubac isn’t even on the board, but as voters rethink Defensive Player of the Year, he’s worth considering. Zubac is sixth in defensive EPM, just behind Wembanyama and ahead of any other serious contender, and is in the top 15 in LEBRON defensive rating. Zubac has driven a Clippers defense that ranks second behind Oklahoma City on a per-possession basis, and he has comparable rim protection numbers to Jackson with far and away the strongest rebounding statistics among this group.
Rookie of the Year
The favorite:
**Stephon Castle, G, San Antonio Spurs\
ESPN BET odds:** +135
Castle doesn’t quite fit the usual recipe for Rookie of the Year, which is often the player with the most combined points, rebounds and assists per game. With a minimum of 40 games played – ruling out this season’s top rookie, Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain, sidelined by season-ending knee surgery – the leader of those stats has won Rookie of the Year in all but two seasons since 2003-04: Malcolm Brogdon over leader Dario Saric in 2016-17 and Scottie Barnes over leader Cade Cunningham in 2021-22.
Washington Wizards center Alex Sarr is tops in combined points, rebounds and assists per game but isn’t in the top five in Rookie of the Year odds – suggesting voters are probably dinging the No. 2 draft pick for averaging more minutes on the league’s worst team. Castle has also emerged as the consensus best long-term prospect in this class, helping his case.
Other contenders:
**Kel’el Ware, C, Miami Heat\
ESPN BET odds:** +325
Out of Miami’s rotation most of December, Ware has been charging hard since becoming a starter alongside Bam Adebayo. He has averaged 11.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 12 starts, easily the best production for any rookie. If Ware can keep it up the rest of the season, he stands an excellent chance of coming out of nowhere to snag Rookie of the Year.
**Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies\
ESPN BET odds:** +1400
**Jaylen Wells, F, Memphis Grizzlies\
ESPN BET odds:** +850
If voters want to reward a rookie for contributing to a winning team, Edey and Wells are the best options. Wells is first and Edey second among rookies in EPM wins. However, that’s rarely how voters pick the recipient, and neither is putting up the kind of box score stats that typically translate.
Sixth Man of the Year
The favorite:
**Payton Pritchard, G, Boston Celtics\
ESPN BET odds:** -160
Among players likely to be eligible for Sixth Man, Pritchard has easily been the most valuable, ranking 25th in EPM wins. He’s averaging 13.8 points while shooting 41% on 3s and 63% on the rare 2-point shots he attempts, producing extreme efficiency on one of the NBA’s best teams.
Other contenders:
**De’Andre Hunter, F, Cleveland Cavaliers\
ESPN BET odds:** +300
Moving from the Atlanta Hawks to the Eastern Conference’s best team ahead of the trade deadline could highlight Hunter’s contributions this season. He leads all reserves with 18.8 points per game while shooting a career-high 40% from 3-point range. On the flip side, however, playing alongside the Cavs’ three All-Stars this season might hamper Hunter’s per-game stats. And advanced stats actually consider a different Cav as the team’s most valuable reserve: guard Ty Jerome, who’s doing a strong Pritchard impression, shooting 43% from 3 and averaging 11.4 points in just 19.1 minutes per game.
**Malik Beasley, G, Detroit Pistons\
ESPN BET odds:** +500
Beasley has a strong chance to set the NBA record for most 3s in a season by a reserve, having previously submitted two seasons that rank in the top 10. He’s averaging nearly four 3s per game and needs just 46 more to pass Buddy Hield, who made 262 3-pointers in a reserve role in 2021-22.
**Amen Thompson, F, Houston Rockets\
ESPN BET odds:** +4000
Thompson would have a credible Sixth Man case if he’s eligible. However, he has come off the bench just 27 times this season. Given how well Thompson has played in his 25 games as a starter, averaging 16.5 points, 9.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists, it seems unlikely he’ll head back to the bench even when incumbent power forward Jabari Smith Jr. returns after the All-Star break.
Most Improved Player
The co-favorites:
**Cade Cunningham, G, Detroit Pistons\
ESPN BET odds:** Even
In his fourth season, the No. 1 pick of the 2021 draft has come into his own as an All-Star and the leader of a Detroit team in playoff contention. Cunningham has pushed his usage rate to 33% without sacrificing efficiency and is averaging a career-high 9.4 assists, up from 7.5 last season.
**Norman Powell, G, LA Clippers\
ESPN BET odds:** Even
Powell’s most improved case is more unorthodox. In his 10th NBA season at age 31, Powell has reached new heights, averaging a career-high 24.2 points after never previously topping 19.0. Powell sports both the highest usage rate of his career (27%) and the best true shooting percentage (.633). Among players with at least 25% usage in at least 1,000 minutes, just four players have scored more efficiently than Powell: Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kevin Durant.
Only one player has won the Most Improved Player award in his 30s: Darrell Armstrong in 1998-99, when he was 30.
Another contender:
**Tyler Herro, G, Miami Heat\
ESPN BET odds:** +2000
The betting market considers this a two-man race, but Herro is a potential consideration. He has a good story, having made his All-Star debut and won the 3-point contest during All-Star Weekend. However, Herro’s improvement in box score stats isn’t as impressive as Cunningham’s and has come with Miami sliding below .500.
Coach of the Year
The favorite:
**Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers\
ESPN BET odds:** -700
Typically, this award is given for a combination of team success and overperforming expectations. The Cavaliers, battling the Thunder for the league’s best record, are maxing out both categories. By winning the next five games, Cleveland could tie the 2004-05 Phoenix Suns for the earliest team on record to hit a season over/under total (48.5 wins) of .500 or better, potentially doing so in just 59 games.
Other contenders:
**J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons\
ESPN BET odds:** +1600
Amusingly, the coach Atkinson replaced in Cleveland, Bickerstaff, is one of his strongest competitors for Coach of the Year. The Pistons were the second team this season to hit their over after the Portland Trail Blazers and are on track to make the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
The closest comparison in NBA history was probably when Cotton Fitzsimmons left the Buffalo Braves – who were moving to San Diego to become the Clippers – for the Kansas City Kings in 1978. The Clippers improved by 16 wins under Gene Shue, while Fitzsimmons led the Kings to 48 wins, a 17-game improvement, and their first playoff appearance in four years. The fact that both of those franchises have since moved to different cities indicates how little precedent there is for Bickerstaff’s situation.
**Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets\
ESPN BET odds:** +1200
**Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies\
ESPN BET odds:** +2500
The odds favor Udoka as the second-most-likely winner behind Atkinson and ahead of Bickerstaff, with Jenkins and reigning winner Mark Daigneault of the Oklahoma City Thunder tied for fourth. I’m not sure that makes sense with Houston sliding 2½ games back of Memphis in the standings. That’s nearly the difference between the two teams in over/under totals, where the Grizzlies were three games ahead of the Rockets. If Memphis can hang on to second in the West, I’d give Jenkins a good shot of being a finalist.
All-NBA teams
All-NBA first team
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
- Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
- Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
- Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
With Luka Doncic already ineligible for awards, there’s an opening to join the All-NBA first team. I’ve given that spot to Mitchell, who finished fifth in the straw poll and would be an especially strong candidate if Cleveland finishes with the NBA’s best record. The other question is whether Antetokounmpo can stay eligible. The three other first-team locks are safely on pace to reach the 65-game minimum.
All-NBA second team
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
- Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
- Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
- Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
- Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Wembanyama no longer being eligible for All-NBA opens up a spot on the second team. I’ve gone with the four other players to finish in the top 10 in the straw poll, plus Durant. Edwards finished behind Stephen Curry in media voting to start the All-Star Game, but I suspect that was partially because the game was being played at the Golden State Warriors’ home venue. Jackson was a distant fifth in West frontcourt media voting but is now getting more credit as the best player on a Memphis team that is second in the West.
All-NBA third team
- Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
- Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
- Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
- LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
- Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
Here’s where things get interesting. Curry and James feel like the safest remaining picks after making All-NBA third team last year. At the other end of the age spectrum, I’d make a pair of 2021 draft picks (Cunningham and Mobley) the next two favorites before picking Garland from a large group of contenders, including Damian Lillard, Domantas Sabonis, Alperen Sengun and Pascal Siakam.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN