By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-02-13 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
本周末，当NBA最优秀的球员聚集在湾区参加全明星赛时，联盟中超过三分之一的球队将无人代表。这是不可避免的结果，因为NBA选择的球员（26人，包括两名伤病替补）少于球队数量（30支），而且少数球员占据了多个名额。
NBA的全明星模式与MLB（美国职棒大联盟）截然不同，后者保证每支球队都有一个名额。本赛季，一些球员原本有希望入选全明星，包括一些将会在本周末得到代表的球队中的球员。考虑到这一点，让我们来看看如果每支球队都有一名全明星球员，以及有全明星球员的球队再额外挑选一名候选人，会是什么情况。
本着考察哪些球员本赛季表现最佳的精神，我在挑选全明星时，对2024-25赛季的表现的侧重比以往更大。这对亚特兰大老鹰队的戴森·丹尼尔斯和休斯顿火箭队的阿门·汤普森等冉冉升起的新星有利，而牺牲了一些久经考验的全明星球员。
除了为每支球队挑选一名球员外，我还会考虑他们未来真正加入全明星赛的机会，其中一些比另一些更现实。
跳转至某个层级：
差一点就入选？ 2024-25赛季本有资格
应该强势反弹的前全明星球员
这些前全明星球员的时代已经结束？
应该期待更多首次入选的机会
本赛季没有机会
如果他们的球队必须选一名球员
本赛季本有资格入选
拉梅洛·鲍尔(LaMelo Ball)，后卫，夏洛特黄蜂
入选全明星的理由： 鲍尔的情况是史无前例的：一位在全明星投票中领先其位置组别（东部后场）的球员，却没有进入最终名单。媒体投票中排名第七葬送了鲍尔首发的希望。教练们从一支乐透球队中挑选鲍尔作为替补的可能性似乎从未存在，特别是考虑到他缺席了黄蜂队三分之一的比赛。因此，他场均27.3分和7.2次助攻不足以赢得第二次全明星之旅。
未来机会： 如果鲍尔能够保持健康，并将他的个人表现转化为更多的团队成功，就像他在2021-22赛季入选时那样，那么他肯定会有更多的全明星之旅。事实上，如果没有，那将是历史性的。鲍尔在20岁时首次入选全明星。如果不算现役球员，阿尔万·亚当斯是唯一一位仅在22岁之前入选全明星的球员。（亚当斯在1975-76赛季作为新秀入选，那是ABA-NBA合并的前一年。）
德文·布克(Devin Booker)，后卫，菲尼克斯太阳
入选全明星的理由： 在过去五个赛季中四次入选全明星的布克，场均得到26.2分和6.7次助攻，尽管效率不如往年。布克的三分球命中率仅为34%，加上太阳队平庸的战绩，损害了他的机会。自从1月1日以来，布克的表现就像一名全明星球员。在那段时间里，他将自己的得分提高到场均28.0分，命中率为48%。
未来机会： 西部后场的竞争不会变得不那么激烈，但如果布克能够避免上半场的严重下滑，他应该仍然是一位领先的竞争者。
多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯(Domantas Sabonis)，中锋，萨克拉门托国王
入选全明星的理由： 尽管随着达马尔·德罗赞的到来，萨博尼斯的助攻数有所下降，但他的得分和篮板数却比他过去两次入选全明星的赛季有所增加——而且三分球命中率为45.8%。值得注意的是，萨博尼斯在联盟中预估正负值获胜次数排名第四。其他高阶数据对萨博尼斯的评价不高，但除了休斯顿的战绩更好之外，他可能比阿尔佩伦·申京更有理由入选。
未来机会： 萨博尼斯应该会一直成为全明星讨论的一部分。
阿门·汤普森(Amen Thompson)，前锋，休斯顿火箭
入选全明星的理由： 我最激进的观点是，汤普森不仅是火箭队中最有力的未入选全明星赛的候选人，而且是最好的一位。高阶数据显示，本赛季他比他即将前往湾区的队友申京更有价值，申京的场均数据更华丽，但得分效率低于平均水平。作为一名首发球员，汤普森场均得到17.0分、9.7个篮板和4.5次助攻，并被评为1月份的西部月度最佳防守球员。
未来机会： 只是时间问题，而不是是否入选的问题。 汤普森年仅22岁，他的潜力才刚刚开始显现。我给他下赛季参加全明星赛的几率高于50%。
表现未达标但应该反弹的前全明星球员
斯科蒂·巴恩斯(Scottie Barnes)，前锋，多伦多猛龙
入选全明星的理由： 巴恩斯的数据组合（场均20.2分、7.8个篮板、6.3次助攻）与上赛季他在22岁时首次入选全明星时几乎相同。然而，巴恩斯的投篮命中率远没有那么精准，三分球命中率从有希望的34%降至职业生涯最低的26.8%。再加上巴恩斯缺席了13场比赛，他并没有参与到竞争中来。
未来机会： 巴恩斯年仅23岁，远未达到他的巅峰。如果他能够重新找回上赛季的投篮手感，多伦多（加上赛季中期引进的布兰登·英格拉姆）应该有足够的竞争力，让巴恩斯经常成为全明星的考虑对象。
卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)，后卫，洛杉矶湖人
入选全明星的理由： 如果我们只是挑选联盟中最好的24名球员或最大的球星，东契奇将是一个简单的选择。小腿受伤让东契奇缺席了一个多月，这阻止了他被选中，这是自他的新秀赛季（2018-19）以来的第一次。在通过交易得到东契奇之前，湖人队除了全明星安东尼·戴维斯（现效力于达拉斯）和勒布朗·詹姆斯之外，没有其他有力的候选人。
未来机会： 问题是东契奇会穿着湖人队球衣入选几次。
泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿(Tyrese Haliburton)，后卫，印第安纳步行者
入选全明星的理由： 尽管哈利伯顿的得分和助攻频率低于他过去两次入选全明星的赛季，但按照大多数价值指标，他仍然是一名全明星级别的球员。避免失误是哈利伯顿价值的一个关键微妙部分。他的场均失误低于两次，是自他作为替补的新秀赛季以来的最低值。此外，尽管哈利伯顿一直在与健康问题作斗争，但他仍然是NBA上场时间排名前20的球员。
未来机会： 24岁的哈利伯顿已经两次入选全明星，他应该有更多的机会。
达龙·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)，后卫，圣安东尼奥马刺
入选全明星的理由： 在1月初缺席三场比赛之前，福克斯正朝着第二次全明星之旅迈进，作为一名射手，他以扎实的效率场均得到26.7分和6.2次助攻。复出后，他的场均得分降至19.1分，投篮命中率为40%，跌出了全明星的考虑范围。自从被交易到圣安东尼奥以来，福克斯似乎又回到了正轨。
未来机会： 如果马刺队在首次入选全明星的维克多·文班亚马的带领下发展成为一支有竞争力的球队，福克斯作为球队明确的二号人物，应该有很好的机会再次入选。福克斯唯一一次入选全明星是在2023年，当时国王队在西部排名第三，这并不奇怪。
泰瑞斯·马克西(Tyrese Maxey)，后卫，费城76人
入选全明星的理由： 随着老将全明星乔尔·恩比德和保罗·乔治因伤缺席了很长一段时间，并且在健康时也没有达到那种水平，马克西让76人队在附加赛的竞争中保持着活力。他场均得到职业生涯最高的27.6分，并且几乎将他的抢断平均数提高了一倍，达到职业生涯最高的2次。
未来机会： 如果教练们在费城上个月取得四连胜之后进行投票，在那段时间里他场均得到33分，我想知道马克西是否会连续第二年入选。我们将拭目以待东部后场的竞争会变得多么激烈，但马克西应该仍然是一位有力的竞争者。
这些前全明星球员本赛季没有机会
贾莱特·阿伦(Jarrett Allen)，中锋，克利夫兰骑士
入选全明星的理由： 阿伦有充分的理由加入他在克利夫兰的三位队友（首发多诺万·米切尔和替补达柳斯·加兰和埃文·莫布里）的行列，前往湾区。尽管阿伦的场均得分仅为13.6分，低于他在2022年与加兰一同入选全明星时的16.1分，但他的效率却令人难以置信。阿伦的投篮命中率达到了职业生涯最高的69.8%。
未来机会： 随着莫布里的崛起，阿伦的星光可能会在个人奖项方面黯淡下来。阿伦可能需要队友缺席才能获得足够多的投篮机会，从而获得现实的机会。
吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)，前锋，金州勇士
入选全明星的理由： 嗯，也许如果他们在巴特勒在迈阿密失去对篮球的“快乐”之前进行投票的话。由于本赛季只打了27场比赛，而且还没有达到他通常的水平，巴特勒并不是一位有力的竞争者。再说，除了也许安德鲁·维金斯之外，勇士队也没有其他有力的候选人，安德鲁·维金斯被交易到热火队以换取巴特勒。
未来机会： 你会相信巴特勒在过去五个赛季中只入选过一次全明星吗？这是区分常规赛价值和季后赛价值的一个有力数据点，但也反映了巴特勒的傲慢性格可能不受教练的欢迎。考虑到这一点，巴特勒可能需要帮助金州勇士队接近积分榜榜首，才能在他的履历中增加第七次全明星之旅。
鲁迪·戈贝尔(Rudy Gobert)，中锋，明尼苏达森林狼
入选全明星的理由： 当1月4日他们以17胜17负的战绩排名进攻效率第八位时，自从他们轻松超过50%胜率以来，森林狼队一直排在联盟前五名。戈贝尔仍然是他们在那端的支柱，尽管他在进攻端的作用较小，但在5英尺内对手的投篮命中率排名联盟前五。他的场均10.8分是戈贝尔自2015-16赛季以来的最低值。
未来机会： 32岁的戈贝尔可能已经参加了他的最后一次全明星赛，他在犹他爵士队参加了三次。
布鲁克·洛佩斯(Brook Lopez)，中锋，密尔沃基雄鹿
入选全明星的理由： 洛佩斯仍然是NBA顶级的禁区保护者之一。根据NBA高阶数据的Second Spectrum跟踪，当洛佩斯作为主要防守者时，对手在5英尺内的投篮命中率为55%，这使他在每场比赛至少防守5次此类投篮的球员中排名倒数前10名。
未来机会： 洛佩斯的个人使用率达到了职业生涯最低的15%，并且将在4月份年满37岁。作为2013年布鲁克林篮网队的全明星球员，洛佩斯在他的卓越职业生涯的暮年，没有机会再次达到那个水平。
劳里·马尔卡宁(Lauri Markkanen)，前锋，犹他爵士
入选全明星的理由： 马尔卡宁显然是犹他爵士队最好的球员，但他的表现远不及他在2023年入选全明星时，甚至不如上赛季。马尔卡宁的得分降至场均19.2分，这是他在爵士队的最低值，并且在过去两个赛季命中率超过39%之后，他的三分球命中率仅为35%。
未来机会： 看起来2022-23赛季可能是马尔卡宁职业生涯的最高点。他将在休赛期年满28岁，虽然有理由期望马尔卡宁的投篮命中率会反弹，但他可能不再达到全明星水平，直到犹他爵士队有足够的竞争力让他获得考虑。
安德鲁·维金斯(Andrew Wiggins)，前锋，迈阿密热火
入选全明星的理由： 作为2022年的全明星，在经历了2023-24赛季场均13.2分的职业生涯最低得分后，维金斯在一次反弹中几乎得到了相同的数字。在被交易到迈阿密之前，维金斯在勇士队的得分排名第二，并且是热火队本赛季场均得分超过12分的四名球员之一。
未来机会： 既然维金斯已经加入了热火队，他将与巴姆·阿德巴约和泰勒·希罗竞争全明星的考虑，这使得攀登变得更加困难。
尼古拉·武切维奇(Nikola Vucevic)，中锋，芝加哥公牛
入选全明星的理由： 一个半严肃的问题：如果NBA允许每支球队都有一名全明星，而他是他们的代表，那么公牛队会交易扎克·拉文吗？在被交易到萨克拉门托之后，武切维奇是芝加哥公牛队名单上唯一真正的选择，但这有点牵强。武切维奇的得分不如他在2019年和2021年效力于奥兰多魔术队时那样多产，也没有建立起强大的防守体系。
未来机会： 34岁的武切维奇的全明星时代肯定已经过去了。更有趣的问题是，目前公牛队的哪位成员最有可能成为全明星。答案可能是20岁的新秀马塔斯·布泽利斯，他将在湾区参加扣篮大赛。
应该期待更多首次入选的机会
德斯蒙德·贝恩(Desmond Bane)，后卫，孟菲斯灰熊
入选全明星的理由： 在全明星小贾伦·杰克逊和此前两次入选全明星的贾·莫兰特之后，贝恩一直是灰熊队最稳定的二号选择。贝恩在11月份陷入低迷，在从腹股沟拉伤中恢复过来时，场均仅得到10.6分，但在过去两个月中投出了50/40/90的投篮命中率。
未来机会： 贝恩在2022-23赛季的全明星势头更强劲，当时他是孟菲斯灰熊队的第二得分手，场均21.5分。只要莫兰特保持健康并在阵容中，杰克逊作为主要进攻选择的出现可能会使贝恩难以脱颖而出。
戴森·丹尼尔斯(Dyson Daniels)，后卫，亚特兰大老鹰
入选全明星的理由： 随着特雷·杨被选为伤病替补，杰伦·约翰逊因赛季报销的肩伤而缺席，以及德安德烈·亨特被交易到骑士队，丹尼尔斯是老鹰队剩下的最佳选择。他的得分在球队中排名第四，并且以场均近3次抢断领先NBA，这为他赢得了全防守阵容的荣誉。
未来机会： 尽管丹尼尔斯的外线防守非常出色，但他可能需要贡献超过场均13.7分和4.0次助攻才能成为全明星候选人。考虑到丹尼尔斯（下个月22岁）比2024年选秀中的9名首轮秀更年轻，这当然是有可能的。
卢冈茨·多尔特(Luguentz Dort)，后卫，俄克拉荷马城雷霆
入选全明星的理由： 多尔特场均得到9.8分，这肯定会是一个非常规的全明星选择。他是NBA第一防守球队中最有价值的外线防守者，并且首发的比赛场次几乎与中锋切特·霍姆格伦（俄克拉荷马城除了全明星谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和健康的贾伦·威廉姆斯之外，显然是下一个最好的球员）和以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因的总和一样多。再加上职业生涯最高的41.2%的三分球命中率，我认为多尔特本赛季一直是雷霆队最有价值的第三名球员。
未来机会： 只要霍姆格伦保持健康，俄克拉荷马城的三位才华横溢的年轻球星可能会在可预见的未来占据雷霆队所有的全明星名额。
特雷·墨菲三世(Trey Murphy III)，前锋，新奥尔良鹈鹕
入选全明星的理由： 除了一个乐透签之外，墨菲有机会大展拳脚一直是鹈鹕队命运多舛的赛季中的一线希望。他在不牺牲任何得分效率的情况下，场均得到职业生涯最高的22.6分。墨菲的三分球命中率仍然接近39%。
未来机会： 24岁的墨菲正在进入他的巅峰期。问题是新奥尔良队是否能够足够优秀，让一名球员有资格入选全明星，而没有一位球星——锡安·威廉姆森、德章泰·穆雷或其他球员——在球队的等级中超过墨菲。
贾马尔·穆雷(Jamal Murray)，后卫，丹佛掘金
入选全明星的理由： 穆雷在周三战胜波特兰的比赛中得到了职业生涯最高的55分，他的表现就像一名全明星球员。自12月中旬以来，他场均得到22.9分和6.1次助攻，三分球命中率为39.8%，罚球命中率为93%。穆雷的职业生涯记录使他比小迈克尔·波特更具优势，小波特场均得到职业生涯最高的19.0分，两分球命中率为61.6%，三分球命中率为41.7%，并且重振了拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克。
未来机会： 穆雷有机会成为NBA有史以来最好的从未入选过全明星赛的球员之一。在我的WARP（胜利贡献值）指标中，他的职业生涯价值在从未入选过全明星赛的现役球员中排名第12位，并且他是前19名中最年轻的球员。下一个最好的年轻球员：波特，他的队友阿隆·戈登（第9名）也位居前列。自从卡梅隆·安东尼之后，丹佛掘金队除了尼古拉·约基奇之外就没有其他全明星球员了。
弗朗茨·瓦格纳(Franz Wagner)，前锋，奥兰多魔术
入选全明星的理由： 如果瓦格纳在下半场保持健康，那么因为他缺席了20场比赛而将他排除在全明星赛之外将显得很愚蠢。瓦格纳已经取代了2024年全明星保罗·班切罗，成为本赛季奥兰多魔术队的头号得分手，以更高的效率场均得到职业生涯最高的25.4分，外加5.0次助攻。再加上瓦格纳的防守贡献，他在健康时一直打出明显的全明星水平。
未来机会： 据推测，班切罗在从更严重的腹股沟撕裂中恢复过来后会反弹。班切罗看起来像是一个全明星常客，但如果魔术队重回正轨，那么请在东部联盟的前场为瓦格纳腾出位置。
这次没有现实的机会
马利克·比斯利(Malik Beasley)，后卫，底特律活塞
入选全明星的理由： 在底特律活塞队上个休赛期增加的老将中，比斯利产生了最大的影响，因为活塞队已经跃入季后赛的竞争行列。尽管今年大部分时间都是替补出场，但比斯利正在争夺NBA三分球第二名的位置，他的三分球命中率为41.5%。
未来机会： 考虑到比斯利在补充数据方面做得很少，全明星之旅并不现实。尽管如此，比斯利在上赛季以老将底薪为密尔沃基雄鹿队效力后，重新建立了自己的价值，这令人印象深刻。
丹尼尔·加福德(Daniel Gafford)，中锋，达拉斯独行侠
入选全明星的理由： 加福德在上周扭伤了他的右膝盖后，将错过任何全明星活动，这加剧了独行侠队的前场伤病困境。但是，他在中锋德雷克·莱夫利二世缺席的情况下表现得特别出色，在莱夫利缺席的比赛中场均得到15分，9个篮板和近3个盖帽。加福德创造了更多的进攻机会，同时继续保持70%的投篮命中率。
未来机会： 一旦他重返赛场，加福德将很难保持这种状态。他不仅将与另一位首发级别的中锋莱夫利分享时间，加福德还将与新加盟的安东尼·戴维斯竞争篮筐冲击的机会。在因内收肌拉伤而缺席之前，加福德在戴维斯在达拉斯的一场比赛中只得到了5分。
乔什·哈特(Josh Hart)，前锋，纽约尼克斯
入选全明星的理由： 凭借他们坚如磐石的首发五人组，尼克斯队有多名球员进入了全明星选拔的候选名单。场均得到17.8分的米卡尔·布里奇斯或作为球队最佳防守者的OG·阿奴诺比（16.4分）是更传统的选择，但我选择了哈特的全能比赛。哈特场均得到14.7分，9.8个篮板和5.7次助攻，基本上是在打出一个巅峰时期德雷蒙德·格林的赛季。尽管哈特不是年度最佳防守球员的候选人，但他一直是一名更好的得分手，他的两分球命中率为61%。
未来机会： 只要纽约的首发五人组保持完整，阿奴诺比和布里奇斯成为全明星的机会可能比哈特更好。
卡梅隆·约翰逊(Cameron Johnson)，前锋，布鲁克林篮网
入选全明星的理由： 作为在上周交易截止日期之前没有更换球队的最有趣的球员之一，约翰逊场均得到职业生涯最高的19.2分，三分球命中率接近42%。约翰逊的得分效率高于他的队友卡姆·托马斯，卡姆·托马斯因伤缺席了19场比赛，并且在防守端贡献更多。
未来机会： 实际上，约翰逊可能永远不会再得到如此多的得分机会。今年夏天的交易可能会将他送到一支有竞争力的球队中担任配角，类似于约翰逊在被交易到布鲁克林篮网队之前在菲尼克斯太阳队所扮演的角色。
德里克·怀特(Derrick White)，后卫，波士顿凯尔特人
入选全明星的理由： 在今年的第一次全明星预测中，我选择了怀特，当时他在11月份场均得到18.3分。怀特随后陷入了投篮低迷期，12月和1月的3分球命中率仅为34%。然而，怀特的高阶数据仍然很强。例如，他在单赛季预估正负值（EPM）中排名第13位，同时在场上扮演的角色比投篮火热的队友佩顿·普里查德更大。
未来机会： 30岁的怀特可能正在耗尽入选全明星赛的时间。如果伤病允许他在凯尔特人队的进攻中扮演比他目前低于平均水平的19%的使用率更大的角色，那么他将有最好的机会。
伊维察·祖巴茨(Ivica Zubac)，中锋，洛杉矶快船
入选全明星的理由： 祖巴茨的得分或创造力不如后卫詹姆斯·哈登和诺曼·鲍威尔那样多产，詹姆斯·哈登和诺曼·鲍威尔是更传统的全明星候选人。然而，祖巴茨支撑了NBA第二好的防守，这帮助快船队在本赛季保持竞争力。他的场均得分也达到了职业生涯最高的15.4分，投篮命中率超过60%。因此，祖巴茨在预估正负值胜场（EPM）中排名前20，领先于哈登（被选为替补）和鲍威尔。
未来机会： 祖巴茨可能需要赢得年度最佳防守球员才能成为西部联盟的全明星球员。这将使他拥有与戈贝尔成为三届全明星球员相似的案例。
MLB规则？这些球队唯一的代表将是…
德尼·阿夫迪亚(Deni Avdija)，前锋，波特兰开拓者
入选全明星的理由： 尽管直到12月下旬才替补出场，但阿夫迪亚一直是开拓者队在波特兰的第一个赛季中最好的球员。自从今年以一个深度下滑（在前11场比赛中三分球命中率为17%）开始以来，阿夫迪亚场均得到16分，投篮命中率为49%，其中包括37%的三分球命中率。
未来机会： 如果阿夫迪亚能够在他在本赛季所扮演的更大的进攻角色中保持高于平均水平的三分球命中率，那么如果他仍然是开拓者队最好的球员，并且他们有所进步，那么这可能会转化为全明星的考虑。然而，更年轻的队友斯库特·亨德森和谢登·夏普可能会篡夺那个角色。
乔丹·普尔(Jordan Poole)，后卫，华盛顿奇才
入选全明星的理由： 像奇才队这样积极重建的球队有力地证明了NBA永远不会考虑MLB的全明星模式。普尔是华盛顿奇才队中唯一一位在预估正负值胜场（EPM）或我的胜利贡献值（WARP）指标中排名前140的球员。他值得称赞，因为他从在奇才队令人失望的第一个赛季中反弹，但没有全明星的关注。
未来机会： 普尔和他的球队需要取得飞跃，才有可能入选全明星。
点击查看原文：NBA All-Star 2025: Top unselected player for all 30 teams
NBA All-Star 2025: Top unselected player for all 30 teams
When the NBA’s best players gather in the Bay Area this weekend for the All-Star Game, more than a third of the league’s teams won’t be represented on the rosters. That’s the inevitable result of the NBA selecting fewer players (26, including two injury replacements) than there are teams (30), plus a handful hogging multiple selections.
The NBA’s All-Star model is very different from MLB, which awards every team a spot. Some players had a legitimate shot this season at being All-Stars, including several on teams that will be represented this weekend. With that in mind, let’s look at who would be chosen if every team had an All-Star – plus one additional candidate for the teams that do have All-Stars.
In the spirit of looking at which players have performed the best this season, I’ve leaned a little more heavily on 2024-25 production than I typically would in picking All-Stars. That works in the favor of rising players like Dyson Daniels of the Atlanta Hawks and Amen Thompson of the Houston Rockets at the expense of a couple of proven All-Stars.
In addition to making a pick for each team, I’ll also consider their chances of actually joining the All-Star Game going forward, with some far more realistic than others.
Jump to a tier:\
All-Snub? Had a legit claim for '24-25\
Ex All-Stars who should bounce back\
Time’s up for these former All-Stars?\
Should expect more chances for first nod\
Wasn’t in the cards in this season \
If their team had to pick a player
Had a legit case this season
LaMelo Ball, G, Charlotte Hornets
All-Star case: Ball’s situation is the first of its kind: a player to lead his position group (East backcourt) in All-Star voting yet not make the game. A seventh-place finish in media voting doomed Ball’s hopes of starting. The coaches picking Ball as a reserve from a lottery team never seemed likely, particularly given he’s missed a third of the Hornets’ games. So his 27.3 PPG and 7.2 APG weren’t enough to earn a second All-Star appearance.
Future chances: If Ball can stay healthy and translate his production into more team success like 2021-22 when he was chosen, there are surely All-Star trips ahead for him. Actually, it will be historic if not. Ball was 20 for his All-Star debut. Not counting active players, Alvan Adams is the only one-time All-Star to have his only appearance come before age 22. (Adams was chosen as a rookie in 1975-76, the year before the ABA-NBA merger.)
Devin Booker, G, Phoenix Suns
All-Star case: An All-Star for four of the past five seasons, Booker is averaging 26.2 PPG and 6.7 APG, albeit not with the same efficiency as years past. Booker shooting just 34% from 3-point range, along with the Suns’ middling record, hurt his chances. Since Jan. 1, Booker has played like an All-Star. He’s boosted his scoring to 28.0 PPG on 48% shooting in that span.
Future chances: The West backcourt competition doesn’t figure to get any less fierce, but Booker should be a leading contender if he can avoid serious first-half slumps.
Domantas Sabonis, C, Sacramento Kings
All-Star case: Although Sabonis is averaging fewer assists with the arrival of DeMar DeRozan, his scoring and rebounding are up more than during his past two All-Star campaigns – and shooting 45.8% from 3-point range. Remarkably, Sabonis is fourth in the league in estimated plus-minus wins. Other advanced metrics don’t rate Sabonis as well, but he’s probably got a stronger case than Alperen Sengun aside from Houston’s superior record.
Future chances: Sabonis should remain part of the All-Star conversation on an annual basis.
Amen Thompson, F, Houston Rockets
All-Star case: My hottest take is that Thompson is not only the strongest Rockets candidate not to make the All-Star Game but the best one, period. Advanced stats suggest he’s been more valuable this season than his Bay Area-bound teammate Sengun, who has gaudier per-game statistics but has scored with below-average efficiency. Thompson has averaged 17.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 4.5 APG as a starter and was the West Defensive Player of the Month for January.
Future chances: When, not if. Having just turned 22, Thompson is scratching the surface of his potential. I would give him better than even odds of playing in the game next season.
Former All-Stars who fell short, but should bounce back
Scottie Barnes, F, Toronto Raptors
All-Star case: Barnes is averaging nearly the same combination of stats (20.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 6.3 APG) that earned him an All-Star debut last season at age 22. However, Barnes hasn’t been nearly as accurate a shooter, going from a promising 34% on 3s to a career-low 26.8%. Add in Barnes missing 13 games, and he hasn’t been in the mix.
Future chances: Still just 23, Barnes is far from his peak as a player. If he can rediscover last season’s shooting touch, Toronto (with midseason acquisition Brandon Ingram) should be competitive enough to put Barnes in All-Star consideration regularly.
Luka Doncic, G, Los Angeles Lakers
All-Star case: If we were simply picking the best 24 players in the league or the biggest stars, Doncic would be an easy choice. The calf injury that sidelined Doncic for more than a month prevented him from being chosen, the first time since his rookie season (2018-19). Before adding Doncic via trade, the Lakers had no serious candidates outside of All-Stars Davis (now with Dallas) and LeBron James.
Future chances: The question is how many for Doncic in a Lakers uniform.
Tyrese Haliburton, G, Indiana Pacers
All-Star case: Despite scoring and assisting less frequently than his past two All-Star campaigns, Haliburton still rates as an All-Star-caliber player by most value metrics. Avoiding turnovers is a key subtle part of Haliburton’s value. He’s averaging under two, the lowest since his rookie campaign as a reserve. Additionally, despite battling health concerns, Haliburton is in the NBA’s top 20 in minutes played.
Future chances: At 24 with two All-Star Games under his belt, Haliburton should have more opportunities.
De’Aaron Fox, G, San Antonio Spurs
All-Star case: Before a three-game absence in early January, Fox was well on his way to a second All-Star appearance, averaging 26.7 PPG and 6.2 APG on solid efficiency as a shooter. He dropped to 19.1 PPG and 40% shooting after returning, falling out of serious All-Star consideration. Since being dealt to San Antonio, Fox appears back on track.
Future chances: If the Spurs develop into contenders led by first-time All-Star Victor Wembanyama, Fox should have a good chance for additional appearances as the team’s clear No. 2 player. It’s unsurprising that Fox’s one All-Star nod came in 2023, when the Kings finished third in the West.
Tyrese Maxey, G, Philadelphia 76ers
All-Star case: With veteran All-Stars Joel Embiid and Paul George missing extended stretches due to injury and not playing at that level when healthy, Maxey has kept the Sixers afloat in the play-in race. He’s averaging a career-high 27.6 points and has nearly doubled his steal average to a career-high two.
Future chances: Had coaches voted after Philadelphia’s four-game winning streak last month, during which he averaged 33 points, I wonder whether Maxey would have made it for a second consecutive year. We’ll see how crowded the East backcourt race pans out, but Maxey should remain a strong contender.
Wasn’t in the cards for these former All-Stars
Jarrett Allen, C, Cleveland Cavaliers
All-Star case: There was a reasonable argument for Allen to join his three Cleveland teammates (starters Donovan Mitchell and reserves Darius Garland and Evan Mobley) in the Bay. Although Allen is averaging just 13.6 points, down from 16.1 when he was chosen an All-Star alongside Garland in 2022, that’s with incredible efficiency. Allen is shooting a career-high 69.8% from the field.
Future chances: As Mobley’s star rises, Allen’s will probably dim as far as individual awards are concerned. It might take an absence from a teammate for Allen to get enough shots to have a realistic chance.
Jimmy Butler, F, Golden State Warriors
All-Star case: Well, maybe if they held the vote before Butler lost his “joy” of basketball in Miami. With just 27 games played this season at less than his usual standard, Butler wasn’t a serious contender. Then again, neither were any of the Warriors aside perhaps Andrew Wiggins, traded to the Heat for Butler.
Future chances: Would you believe Butler has only been an All-Star once in the past five seasons? That’s a strong data point in the distinction between regular season and playoff value, but also reflects how Butler’s brash nature may not play well with coaches. Keeping that in mind, Butler may need to help Golden State near the top of the standings to add a seventh All-Star appearance to his résumé.
Rudy Gobert, C, Minnesota Timberwolves
All-Star case: Eighth in offensive rating when they were 17-17 on Jan. 4, the Timberwolves have ranked in the league’s top five since as they’ve moved comfortably above .500. Gobert remains their anchor at that end, ranking in the top five in opponent shooting within five feet, despite playing a smaller role offensively. His 10.8 PPG are Gobert’s fewest since 2015-16.
Future chances: At 32, Gobert has probably played in his last All-Star Game, having made three with Utah.
Brook Lopez, C, Milwaukee Bucks
All-Star case: Lopez remains one of the NBA’s top rim protectors. Opponents are shooting 55% inside five feet with Lopez as a primary defender, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, putting him in the bottom 10 among players defending at least five such shots per game.
Future chances: Lopez sports a career-low 15% usage rate and will turn 37 in April. An All-Star in 2013 with Brooklyn, Lopez has no legitimate chance of reaching that level again during the twilight of a remarkable career.
Lauri Markkanen, F, Utah Jazz
All-Star case: Markkanen is clearly Utah’s best player, but he hasn’t performed at nearly the same level as when he made the All-Star team in 2023 or even last season. Markkanen’s scoring has dipped to 19.2 PPG, his lowest with the Jazz, and he’s shooting just 35% on 3s after being north of 39% the past two campaigns.
Future chances: It’s starting to look like 2022-23 might be a high point in Markkanen’s career. He’ll turn 28 during the offseason, and while it’s reasonable to expect Markkanen’s shooting to bounce back, he may no longer be performing at an All-Star level by the time Utah is competitive enough to earn him consideration.
Andrew Wiggins, F, Miami Heat
All-Star case: An All-Star in 2022, Wiggins is putting up virtually identical numbers across the board in a bounce-back campaign after averaging a career-low 13.2 points in 2023-24. Wiggins was second on the Warriors in scoring before being traded to Miami and is one of just four players on the Heat’s roster averaging more than 12 points this season.
Future chances: Now that Wiggins has joined the Heat, he’ll be competing with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro for All-Star consideration, making it an uphill climb.
Nikola Vucevic, C, Chicago Bulls
All-Star case: Semi-serious question: Would the Bulls have traded Zach LaVine if the NBA gave every team an All-Star and he was their representative? After his trade to Sacramento, Vucevic is the only real option on Chicago’s roster, and that would be a stretch. Vucevic isn’t scoring as prolifically as when he made the All-Star team in 2019 and 2021 with the Orlando Magic, nor anchoring as strong a defense.
Future chances: At 34, Vucevic’s All-Star days are surely behind him. The more interesting question is which member of the current Bulls is most likely to be an All-Star. The answer might be 20-year-old rookie Matas Buzelis, who will be in the Bay for the slam dunk contest.
Expect more chances for a first selection
Desmond Bane, G, Memphis Grizzlies
All-Star case: Bane has been the Grizzlies’ most consistent No. 2 option after All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. and previous two-time participant Ja Morant. Bane slumped in November, averaging just 10.6 points while coming back from an oblique strain, but has posted 50/40/90 shooting splits over the past two months.
Future chances: Bane had more All-Star momentum in 2022-23, when he was Memphis’ second-leading scorer at 21.5 points. Jackson’s emergence as a primary offensive option might make it difficult for Bane to stand out as long as Morant is healthy and in the lineup.
Dyson Daniels, G, Atlanta Hawks
All-Star case: With Trae Young chosen as an injury replacement, Jalen Johnson sidelined by season-ending shoulder injury and De’Andre Hunter traded to the Cavaliers, Daniels is the best remaining choice for the Hawks. He’s fourth on the team in scoring and leads the NBA with nearly three steals per game, making a compelling case for All-Defensive honors.
Future chances: As outstanding as Daniels’ perimeter defense is, he’ll probably need to contribute more than 13.7 PPG and 4.0 APG to become an All-Star candidate. Given Daniels is younger (22 next month) than nine first-round picks in the 2024 draft, that’s certainly possible.
Luguentz Dort, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
All-Star case: Averaging 9.8 points, Dort would certainly be an unconventional All-Star pick. He’s the most valuable perimeter defender on the NBA’s No. 1 defense and has started nearly as many games as centers Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City’s clear next-best player after All-Stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams when healthy) and Isaiah Hartenstein combined. Add in career-high 41.2% 3-point shooting and I think Dort has been the Thunder’s third-most valuable player this season.
Future chances: As long as Holmgren is healthy, Oklahoma City’s three talented young stars figure to hog any Thunder All-Star appearances for the foreseeable future.
Trey Murphy III, F, New Orleans Pelicans
All-Star case: Besides a lottery pick, Murphy getting to spread his wings has been the silver lining to the Pelicans’ ill-fated season. He’s averaging a career-high 22.6 points without sacrificing any efficiency as a scorer. Murphy is still shooting nearly 39% beyond the arc.
Future chances: At 24, Murphy is entering his prime. The question is whether New Orleans can be good enough to have a player merit All-Star consideration without having a star – Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray or someone else – surpass Murphy in the team’s pecking order.
Jamal Murray, G, Denver Nuggets
All-Star case: Murray, who scored a career-high 55 points in Wednesday’s win over Portland, has played like an All-Star. Since mid-December, he’s averaging 22.9 points and 6.1 assists on 39.8% 3-point shooting and 93% from the foul line. Murray’s track record gives him an edge over Michael Porter Jr., averaging a career-high 19.0 points while shooting 61.6% on 2s and 41.7% on 3s, as well as revitalized Russell Westbrook.
Future chances: Murray has a chance to go down as one of the NBA’s best players never to make an All-Star Game. His career value ranks 12th in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric among active players who have never been All-Stars, and he’s the youngest player in the top 19. The next-best younger player: Porter, with teammate Aaron Gordon (ninth) also among the leaders. Denver hasn’t had an All-Star besides Nikola Jokic since Carmelo Anthony.
Franz Wagner, F, Orlando Magic
All-Star case: If Wagner stays healthy during the second half, keeping him out of the All-Star Game because he missed 20 games will seem silly. Wagner has supplanted 2024 All-Star Paolo Banchero as Orlando’s leading scorer this season, averaging a career-high 25.4 points on better efficiency, plus 5.0 assists. Add in Wagner’s defensive contributions, and he’s played at a clear All-Star level when healthy.
Future chances: Presumably, Banchero will rebound after struggling since returning from his more serious oblique tear. Banchero looks like an All-Star fixture but make room for Wagner in the Eastern Conference frontcourt alongside him if the Magic get back on track.
Wasn’t a realistic shot this time around
Malik Beasley, G, Detroit Pistons
All-Star case: Of Detroit’s veteran additions last offseason, Beasley has made the biggest impact as the Pistons have leaped into playoff contention. Despite coming off the bench most of the year, Beasley is in the running for second in the NBA in 3-pointers, making them at a 41.5% clip.
Future chances: Given how little Beasley does to fill out the box score, an All-Star appearance isn’t realistic. Nonetheless, it’s impressive how Beasley has rebuilt his value after playing last season in Milwaukee for the veteran’s minimum.
Daniel Gafford, C, Dallas Mavericks
All-Star case: Gafford would have missed any All-Star activities after he sprained his right knee last week, adding to the Mavs’ frontcourt injury woes. But he particularly excelled with fellow center Dereck Lively II sidelined, averaging 15 points, 9 rebounds and nearly 3 blocks in games Lively has missed. Gafford has created more of his offense while continuing to shoot 70% from the field.
Future chances: Once he returns to action, it’s going to be difficult for Gafford to keep up this production. Not only will he be splitting time with another starting-caliber center in Lively, Gafford will compete for rim runs with newcomer Anthony Davis. Gafford had just five points in Davis’ one game in Dallas before being sidelined by an adductor strain.
Josh Hart, F, New York Knicks
All-Star case: By virtue of their rock-solid starting five, the Knicks have multiple players on a long list for All-Star selections. Mikal Bridges, averaging 17.8 points, or OG Anunoby (16.4 points as the team’s best defender) are more conventional choices, but I’m going with Hart’s well-rounded game. At 14.7 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists, Hart is essentially delivering a prime Draymond Green season. And while Hart isn’t a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, he’s been a better scorer, shooting 61% on 2s.
Future chances: As long as New York’s starting five is intact, Anunoby and Bridges probably have better chances of becoming All-Stars than Hart.
Cameron Johnson, F, Brooklyn Nets
All-Star case: One of the most interesting players not to change teams prior to last week’s trade deadline, Johnson is averaging a career-high 19.2 points and shooting nearly 42% from 3-point range. Johnson is a more efficient scorer than teammate Cam Thomas, who’s been limited to 19 games by injury, and contributes more on defense.
Future chances: Realistically, Johnson will probably never score this prolifically again. A trade this summer will likely send him to a supporting role on a contending team, similar to the one Johnson played with the Phoenix Suns before being dealt to Brooklyn.
Derrick White, G, Boston Celtics
All-Star case: I picked White on my first All-Star projections of the year, back when he was averaging 18.3 points through November. White subsequently fell into a shooting slump, hitting just 34% of his 3s in December and January. However, White’s advanced stats remain strong. He ranks 13th, for example, in single-season estimated plus-minus (EPM) wins produced while playing a larger role than hot-shooting teammate Payton Pritchard.
Future chances: At 30, White might be running out of time to make an All-Star Game. His best chance will come if injuries allow him to play a larger role in the Celtics’ offense than his current below-average 19% usage rate.
Ivica Zubac, C, LA Clippers
All-Star case: Zubac isn’t scoring or creating as prolifically as guards James Harden and Norman Powell, more conventional All-Star candidates. However, Zubac anchors the NBA’s second-best defense that has helped the Clippers remain competitive this season. He’s also averaging a career-high 15.4 points on 60-plus-percent shooting. As a result, Zubac is in the top 20 in estimated plus-minus wins (EPM) – ahead of Harden, chosen as a reserve, and Powell.
Future chances: It will probably take winning Defensive Player of the Year for Zubac to become an All-Star in the West. That would give him a similar case to the one that has made Gobert a three-time All-Star.
MLB rules? These teams’ lone rep would be…
Deni Avdija, F, Portland Trail Blazers
All-Star case: Despite coming off the bench as recently as late December, Avdija has been the Blazers’ best player during his first season in Portland. Since starting the year in a deep slump (17% from 3 over the first 11 games), Avdija has averaged 16 points on 49% shooting, including 37% on 3s.
Future chances: If Avdija can maintain above-average 3-point shooting in the larger offensive role he’s playing this season, that could translate into All-Star consideration if he remains the Blazers’ best player as they improve. However, younger teammates Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe might usurp that role.
Jordan Poole, G, Washington Wizards
All-Star case: Teams like the Wizards that aggressively rebuild are a strong case against the NBA ever considering the MLB’s All-Star model. Poole is the only Washington player ranked in the top 140 of either estimated plus-minus wins (EPM) or my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. He deserves credit for bouncing back from a disappointing first season with the Wizards but not All-Star attention.
Future chances: It will take Poole and his team making a leap for an All-Star appearance to be possible.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN