By Tim Bontemps, Brian Windhorst | ESPN, 2025-02-04 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。
距离NBA交易截止日(周四,美国东部时间下午3点)还有两天,原本看似平静的一周变成了联盟历史上最喧嚣的一周。
卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)和安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)在一笔史无前例的交易中互换东家,德阿隆·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)成为第一个寻求与文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)并肩作战的球星,而吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)在迈阿密的情况仍未解决,这一切都预示着可能还有更多重磅交易。
随着湖人-独行侠重磅交易尘埃落定,交易截止日也越来越近,以下是我们听到的关于已完成交易的消息、接下来哪些球星可能会被交易,以及在这个疯狂的一周中我们将关注哪些动态。
跳转到章节:
卢卡-戴维斯交易的最新余波
吉米·巴特勒的传奇将如何结束?
本周还会有更多戏剧性事件和大型交易吗?
会有新星前往勇士和太阳吗?
联盟是否已从本周末卢卡·东契奇交易的震惊中恢复过来?
温德霍斯特(Windhorst): 联盟很少对一笔交易毫无防备,但即使在经过两天的消化之后,我们仍然感到震惊。我听到最多的两个说法是:独行侠与东契奇的关系比任何人想象的都要糟糕,而从湖人得到的回报也比任何人预期的都要少。
邦坦普斯(Bontemps): 从周六晚上交易发生的那一刻起,评论就一直是:“为什么是现在?”和“为什么是这样的方式?” 没有人对这两个问题给出过令人信服的答案。
温德霍斯特: 东契奇的巨大天赋毋庸置疑,但他的球队似乎如此迅速地采取行动,却只得到了相对较少的回报,这让联盟开始思考独行侠管理层未来是否会因此声名狼藉,或者决策者是否掌握了一些信息,从而避免了如果今年夏天续约他可能造成的3.5亿美元的困境。
邦坦普斯: 独行侠总经理尼科·哈里森(Nico Harrison)表示,他正在考虑用戴维斯和凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)争夺三到四年的窗口期,而不是更长的时间线,如果独行侠在截止日期前不采取进一步行动来增强阵容,那将是一个巨大的意外。独行侠需要在后场得到帮助,他们现在后场人员极其匮乏,只有一位高水平的控球手欧文,而他正遭受背部椎间盘突出的困扰。
有人猜测劳资协议在这笔交易中起了作用。是真的吗?
邦坦普斯: 新的劳资协议的“穷鬼线”规则已经影响了整个联盟的阵容建设,而且这种影响还将持续下去。但这笔交易是独行侠——特别是哈里森——决定他们宁愿要戴维斯也不要东契奇,并最终促成了这笔交易。
温德霍斯特: 毫无疑问。一位资深高管最近告诉我:“根据新规则,我们必须明白,联盟中可能只有大约10名真正的顶薪球员。”无论你是否接受这个前提,东契奇肯定会在任何一份候选名单上。但独行侠似乎除外。
邦坦普斯: 劳资协议无疑影响了球队的运作方式。我们整个赛季都在讨论一群球员——从布兰登·英格拉姆(Brandon Ingram)到朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle),再到扎克·拉文(Zach LaVine)(尽管他最终被交易了)等等——他们在新规则下处于一个无人区。
最近几天,我也就福克斯在圣安东尼奥的大合同的长期前景进行了类似的讨论。
温德霍斯特: 在新冠疫情的影响之后,过去几年工资帽的增长非常缓慢,新规则限制了高消费球队的灵活性,这可能导致球队过度修正,害怕签下糟糕的合同。随着新的电视转播收入,工资帽将在未来几年大幅增加,并找到新的平衡点。
但现在,许多联盟的决策者都害怕犯下可能使他们的球队瘫痪并让他们丢掉工作的错误。话又说回来,在一位未来名人堂球员的巅峰期之前将他交易到同一联盟的球队,对工作保障也很不利。
吉米·巴特勒的情况如何?
温德霍斯特: 巴特勒想要加盟菲尼克斯太阳队的执念令人匪夷所思,却又令人钦佩。他破坏了他与热火的关系,也损害了球队的赛季。他还拒绝了其他适合他的交易方案,在那些方案中,他本可以获得高薪并在争冠球队效力。但他是一位罕见的能够改变季后赛系列赛结果的关键球员,这让他拥有了很大的权力。巴特勒正在试图利用它。
邦坦普斯: 尽管巴特勒和他的阵营有很多豪言壮语,但这并不是热火不愿意为他寻找下家的情况。只是没有多少球队对得到巴特勒感兴趣。正如你所说,除了菲尼克斯之外,他仅有的几个选择都被告知他对去那里不感兴趣。
巴特勒交易没有发生的原因与菲尼克斯开始追求他以来一直存在的原因相同:布拉德利·比尔(Bradley Beal)、他5020万美元的薪水以及他的交易否决权,还没有找到合适的归宿。除非这种情况发生改变,否则关于巴特勒去菲尼克斯的讨论都只是纸上谈兵。
温德霍斯特: 这并没有阻止太阳队竭尽全力去创造三重奇迹:为比尔和他那份棘手的合同找到一个下家,让比尔用他的交易否决权接受去那个地方,并获得足以吸引热火送走巴特勒的回报。他们一直在尝试三方/四方/五方交易,以实现这一目标。巴特勒也在尽自己的一份力为他们争取时间。
距离交易截止日还有几天时间,太阳队的梦想依然存在,但这需要一个复杂的联盟。热火非常渴望交易巴特勒,可能会放弃太阳队的方案,把他送到其他地方。(如果热火时间不够,然后让新球队处理后续问题,勇士队仍然是一个可能性。)
邦坦普斯: 热火的立场保持不变:他们想送走巴特勒,但他们不会做一笔糟糕的交易。如果他们找不到令自己满意的交易,他们会在夏天再次处理这个问题,届时巴特勒肯定会执行他5200万美元的球员选项——一份巨大的到期合同。
这是一个疯狂的星期,而现在才周二。接下来会发生什么?
温德霍斯特: 前所未有的创造力。我过去常说,三方交易就是没有交易,因为我厌倦了听到那些只需要“第三方”就能让所有人满意的荒谬交易方案。让三方都满意比让两方都满意难50%。但由于所有的“穷鬼线”规则都让交易变得更加困难,多方交易有可能超过传统的两方交易。
邦坦普斯: 不仅多方交易会超过传统的交易,实际上所有交易都将变成三方或更多方交易,因为各支球队都试图避免触及“穷鬼线”。这为交易带来了更多可能性,但也制造了更多障碍。
温德霍斯特: 当交易涉及更多球队时,它们也涉及更多概念和更多头脑风暴。这会导致球队想出过去从未想过的方案。因此,我认为会出现一些大型交易,大量的球员/选秀权/互换/现金/补偿将四处流动。很难判断赢家和输家,但会有一些秘密操作值得研究。
邦坦普斯: 东契奇交易中最少被讨论的部分可能是它开启了本周事态发展的一个意想不到的时间线。例如,达拉斯和洛杉矶的阵容极不平衡,几乎可以肯定的是,他们本周将尝试更多的交易。这将引发一些原本不会发生的对话。我们还没有看到这笔交易的全部影响。
在周四美国东部时间下午3点之前,您最关注哪些球队?
邦坦普斯: 太阳队。巴特勒最终可能会加盟菲尼克斯,老板马特·伊什比亚(Mat Ishbia) 对他长达数月的追求——加上巴特勒一心想去那里——将会得到回报。如果没有,事情可能会变得更有趣。
菲尼克斯已经完成了一笔颇具争议的交易,将他们2031年的首轮签——犹他爵士队总经理贾斯汀·扎尼克(Justin Zanik) 正确地将其称为市场上最具吸引力的交易资产——拆分成三个价值低得多的首轮签,以便进行更多交易。
如果伊什比亚的巴特勒计划失败,他会对这套阵容感到满意吗?这似乎不太可能。
温德霍斯特: 勇士队。几个月来,他们一直在寻找超级巨星和宣称他们不想做任何事之间摇摆不定。他们在球场上的表现也出现了类似的不一致。但他们就是忍不住要行动。他们喜欢做大交易,他们想在辉煌的库里时代榨干每一滴价值。
他们会采取行动,而且他们希望这是大动作。去年,他们在截止日期前调查了得到勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James) 的可能性。消息人士称,今年,他们调查了能否让凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant) 回归,并与巴特勒进行了谈判。无论发生什么,至少勇士队总是很有娱乐性。
邦坦普斯: 看看像波士顿凯尔特人队、克里夫兰骑士队、俄克拉荷马雷霆队、孟菲斯灰熊队和休斯顿火箭队这样的顶级球队如何在冲刺阶段补充他们的阵容将会很有趣。
在NBA处于其最长的均势时期,卫冕冠军凯尔特人队处于长达两个月的平庸期的情况下,看看在周四的截止日期之前,是否有任何竞争者感觉到机会来临,这将是一件令人着迷的事情。
点击查看原文:NBA trade deadline - Luka, Butler, Suns, Warriors and everything we're watching
NBA trade deadline - Luka, Butler, Suns, Warriors and everything we’re watching
With two days until the NBA’s trade deadline (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET), what once appeared to be a quiet week has become one of the loudest in league history.
With Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis being traded for each other in a historic and unprecedented swap, De’Aaron Fox becoming the first star to seek a chance to play with Victor Wembanyama, and Jimmy Butler’s situation remaining unresolved in Miami, there could be plenty of fireworks remaining.
Now that the dust has begun to settle on the Lakers-Mavericks blockbuster and the deadline draws closer, here’s a look at what we’ve heard about the completed trades, which stars could be moved next and what we’ll be watching as this wild week shakes out.
Jump to a section:\
**Latest fallout of the Luka-AD deal\
How will the Jimmy Butler saga end?\
More drama, more megadeals this week? \
New stars headed to Warriors, Suns?**
Has the league recovered from the shock of this weekend’s Luka Doncic trade?
Windhorst: The league is rarely caught off guard by a transaction, but here we are, even after two days to digest the deal. The two takeaways I’ve heard the most: The Mavs’ relationship with Doncic was more fractured than anyone comprehended, and the return from the Lakers was less than anyone expected.
Bontemps: From the moment of the trade late Saturday night, the commentary has been: “Why now?” and “Why this way?” And no one has had a good answer for either question.
Windhorst: Doncic’s immense talent is unquestioned, but that his franchise appeared to move so quickly and get relatively little in return has left the league considering both the possibility of future infamy for the Mavs’ front office or whether the decision-makers have knowledge that saved the team from a potential $350 million quagmire had it extended him this summer.
Bontemps: After Mavericks GM Nico Harrison said he is looking at a three-to-four-year window for contending with Davis and Kyrie Irving, as opposed to a longer timeline, it would be a significant surprise if Dallas doesn’t make further moves to augment its roster before the deadline. The Mavericks need help in the backcourt, where they are woefully thin with just one high-level ball handler in Irving, who is dealing with a bulging disk in his back.
There has been speculation that the collective bargaining agreement played a part in this trade. Is that true?
Bontemps: The CBA’s new apron rules have impacted roster building across the league, and that will continue. But this trade was a matter of the Mavericks – specifically Harrison – deciding that they would rather have Davis than Doncic, and making that happen.
Windhorst: Without question. A longtime executive recently told me, “With the new rules, we have to understand there are probably only about 10 true max salary players in the league.” Whether you accept that premise, Doncic would certainly have been on any short list. Except, it seems, the Mavericks’.
Bontemps: The CBA has undoubtedly impacted the way teams are operating. We’ve spent all season discussing the group of players – from Brandon Ingram to Julius Randle to Zach LaVine (although he was finally traded) to others – who are stuck in a bit of a no-man’s-land when it comes to the new rules.
I’ve had similar conversations in recent days about the long-term outlook for Fox’s massive extension coming in San Antonio.
Windhorst: The salary cap has grown very meagerly over the past few years after COVID-19’s effects, and the new rules crushing high-spending teams’ flexibility has led to perhaps an overcorrection from teams fearing a bad contract. With the new TV money, the cap will increase significantly over the next few years and a new equilibrium will be found.
But now, many league decision-makers are afraid of a mistake that could kneecap their franchise and cost them their job. Then again, trading a possible future first-ballot Hall of Famer before his prime to a team in your conference is hard on job security, too.
Where do things stand with Jimmy Butler?
Windhorst: Butler’s obsession with getting to the Phoenix Suns is bizarrely admirable. He has torched his relationship with the Heat and hurt the team’s season. He has also blocked trade options that would be good fits, where he could have potentially gotten paid and been on a contender. But he’s the rare difference-maker who can tilt the outcome of a playoff series and that comes with a lot of power. Butler is trying to use it.
Bontemps: For all of the bluster from Butler and his camp, this is not a situation where the Heat are unwilling to find a suitor for him. There isn’t a lot of interest in acquiring Butler. To your point, the few options he has had outside of Phoenix have been told he isn’t interested in being there.
The reason a Butler trade hasn’t happened is the same one that has existed since Phoenix’s pursuit began: There has not been a suitable home for Bradley Beal, his $50.2 million salary and his no-trade clause. Until that changes, the conversation of Butler to Phoenix is academic.
Windhorst: That hasn’t stopped the Suns from trying everything they can to pull off a triple miracle of finding a home for Beal and his unwieldy contract, getting Beal to accept going to that place with his no-trade clause, and getting assets in return that can entice the Heat to send Butler. They have and are trying three/four/five-team deals to make that sea part. Butler is doing his part to buy them time.
With a couple of days left until the deadline, the Suns’ dream is alive, but it’s going to require a complex alliance. The Heat are very motivated to move Butler and could abandon the Suns option and send him somewhere else. (Golden State remains a possibility if the Heat run out of time and then let the new team deal with the fallout.)
Bontemps: The Heat’s position has remained unchanged: They’d like to move on from Butler, but they aren’t making a bad deal. If they can’t make one that satisfies them, they’ll deal with this again in the summer, when Butler will certainly pick up his $52 million player option – a gigantic expiring contract.
It has been a wild week, and it’s only Tuesday. What’s next?
Windhorst: Unprecedented ingenuity. I used to say a three-team trade is a no-team trade because I got tired of listening to ridiculous trade constructions that only need “a third team” to make everyone happy. Making three sides happy is 50% harder than making two happy. But with all of the apron rules making trades harder, there’s a chance multiteam trades will outnumber old-fashioned two-team trades.
Bontemps: Not only will multiteam trades outnumber old-fashioned ones, virtually all trades are going to become three-or-more-team deals as franchises attempt to avoid the aprons. That brings a lot more possibilities for deals, but it also creates more obstacles.
Windhorst: When trades involve more teams, they also involve more concepts and more brainstorming. This leads to constructs teams never would’ve come up with in the past. So, I think there will be some giant deals where lots of players/picks/swaps/cash/considerations move around. It will be harder to declare winners and losers, but there will be some sneaky maneuvers to study.
Bontemps: Perhaps the least discussed part of the Doncic trade is that it opened an unexpected timeline of events for how this week will play out. Dallas and Los Angeles, for example, have wildly unbalanced rosters and almost certainly will be attempting more moves this week. That will cause conversations that wouldn’t have happened. We’re not done seeing the impact of the deal.
Which teams are you watching the closest between now and 3 p.m. ET on Thursday?
Bontemps: The Suns. Butler might wind up in Phoenix, and the months-long pursuit of him by owner Mat Ishbia – coupled with Butler’s focus on getting there – will have paid off. If not, things could get more interesting.
Phoenix has already made a pretty controversial trade, breaking up its 2031 first-round pick – Utah Jazz general manager Justin Zanik correctly labeled it the most attractive trade asset on the market – into three far less valuable ones to make more moves.
If Ishbia’s plans for Butler fall through, would he stand with this roster? That seems highly unlikely.
Windhorst: The Warriors. They have vacillated between looking for a superstar to declaring they don’t want to do anything for months. Their on-court play has seen similar inconsistencies. But they just can’t help themselves. They love making big deals and they want to squeeze every drop out of the glorious Curry era.
They’re going to do something, and they want it to be big. Last year, they investigated getting LeBron James at the deadline. This year, sources say, they’ve investigated whether they can get Kevin Durant back and have conducted talks for Butler. Whatever happens, at least the Warriors are always entertaining.
Bontemps: It will be interesting to see how top teams such as the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets supplement their rosters for the stretch run.
With the NBA in its longest stretch of parity, and the defending champion Celtics in a two-month period of middling play, it will be fascinating to see if any of these contenders sense an opportunity to strike before Thursday’s deadline.
By Tim Bontemps, Brian Windhorst | ESPN, via ESPN