[ESPN] 马刺-国王-公牛交易评级:福克斯现在如何与文班亚马适配?

By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-02-03 11:55:00

由生成式人工智能翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

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在ESPN的沙姆斯·查拉尼亚(Shams Charania)报道萨克拉门托国王队愿意交易全明星后卫德阿隆·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox),并且圣安东尼奥马刺队是福克斯的理想目的地不到一周后,这两支球队在周日与芝加哥公牛队达成了一笔交易,将福克斯送到圣安东尼奥,而两届全明星扎克·拉文(Zach LaVine)则前往萨克拉门托作为他的替代者。

周日的三方交易涉及七名球员和多个首轮选秀权,国王队获得了两个无保护的首轮签,而公牛队则获得了今年的一个受保护的选秀权,这个选秀权原本可能会落到马刺队手中。

每支球队在这笔交易中是如何表现的?这笔交易会对未来产生什么影响,包括在周四交易截止日期之前可能会有更多交易的可能性?让我们从各个角度来分析周日的交易。

跳转到评级:

芝加哥 | 萨克拉门托 | 圣安东尼奥

交易详情:马刺队引起轰动,但国王队不会就此沉沦

圣安东尼奥马刺队获得:

后卫 德阿隆·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)

后卫 乔丹·麦克劳克林(Jordan McLaughlin)

萨克拉门托国王队获得:

后卫 扎克·拉文(Zach LaVine)

后卫 西迪·西索科(Sidy Cissoko)

2025年首轮选秀权(前14顺位保护;来自夏洛特)

2027年首轮选秀权(来自圣安东尼奥)

2031年首轮选秀权(来自明尼苏达)

2025年次轮选秀权(来自芝加哥)

2028年次轮选秀权(来自丹佛)

2028年次轮选秀权(自有)

芝加哥公牛队获得:

前锋 扎克·科林斯(Zach Collins)

后卫 特雷·琼斯(Tre Jones)

后卫 凯文·赫尔特(Kevin Huerter)

2025年首轮选秀权(自有;来自圣安东尼奥)

圣安东尼奥马刺队:A-

马刺队在没有牺牲继续补充核心阵容能力的情况下得到了福克斯,值得称赞。圣安东尼奥设法保留了所有值得关注的年轻球员,送出的主要匹配薪资是很少使用的替补中锋扎克·科林斯,而不是后卫凯尔登·约翰逊(Keldon Johnson)或德文·瓦塞尔(Devin Vassell),这两人都是马刺队未来的组成部分。

除此之外,圣安东尼奥保留了除一个之外的所有未来首轮选秀权,以及另外两个宝贵的资产。马刺队保留了他们从亚特兰大老鹰队获得的两个无保护的首轮签,包括今年的一个,随着老鹰队八连败以及首发前锋杰伦·约翰逊(Jalen Johnson)将接受赛季报销的肩部手术,这个签位的前景越来越光明。

此外,圣安东尼奥拥有老鹰队2027年的首轮选秀权以及2026年选秀权的互换权,外加2028年(波士顿,前1顺位保护)、2030年(达拉斯或明尼苏达)和2031年(与萨克拉门托)的互换权。考虑到马刺队的年轻球员,如果有一位球星符合他们的薪资结构,他们仍然有能力再增加一位第三位球星。目前,他们已经承诺将文班亚马与福克斯搭档,为他们崭露头角的超级巨星提供一个长期的挡拆搭档。

在过去的三个赛季中,福克斯一直是NBA中最危险的挡拆得分手之一。根据Second Spectrum追踪数据,在80名至少有500次挡拆出手的球员中,他的有效命中率为54%,排名第八。对手不会想要在福克斯-文班亚马挡拆中换防,这使得两名球员都比他们的防守者更有优势,而传统的防守策略可能会给福克斯提供得分或找到他的大个子队友的途径。

为了让福克斯和文班亚马取得成功,圣安东尼奥需要在他们周围安排尽可能多的射手。这就是保留瓦塞尔很重要的原因。瓦塞尔是一位职业生涯三分球命中率37%的射手,他的高出手量(场均6.5次出手)给对方防守带来了压力。这表明本赛季三分球命中率为31%,职业生涯三分球命中率为35%的约翰逊可能是可以被交易的。这也给最近的首轮秀杰里米·索汉(Jeremy Sochan)(三分球命中率29%)和新秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)(三分球命中率27%)带来了继续发展三分球的压力。

交易得到福克斯加快了马刺队的重建时间表,同时让他们能够进一步评估年轻球员的价值。在理想情况下,圣安东尼奥可能会等待更长时间再进行这样的交易。福克斯比21岁的文班亚马大6岁,比卡斯尔大近7岁。

对于福克斯的下一份合同在他30多岁时的表现如何,人们的担忧也是可以理解的,因为他可能需要提高他的三分球投射才能保持全明星级别的水准。他可以在今年夏天在他合同的最后一年之前获得续约资格,并且可以与使用马刺队薪资空间的重新谈判同时进行签约,将其3710万美元的薪水提高到他预计的最高4640万美元。

与福克斯相似的球员——我的SCHOENE预测系统根据他们在同一年龄段的表现,将史蒂夫·弗朗西斯(Steve Francis)列为一个例子——在他们30多岁时往往会失去价值。

考虑到福克斯将马刺队指定为理想目的地,目前还不清楚是否会有一个完美的交易目标出现。文班亚马的早熟能力给马刺队带来了固有的压力,要求他们打造一支能够比预期更早进入季后赛的球队。圣安东尼奥在积极追求福克斯的同时并没有鲁莽行事,他们做得很好。

考虑到包括新面貌的国王队、达拉斯独行侠队和斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)的金州勇士队在内的竞争对手,看看马刺队本赛季是否有时间冲击附加赛将是一件有趣的事情。

无论发生什么,这笔交易更多的是为了马刺队在2025-26赛季及以后的未来做准备。拥有文班亚马,圣安东尼奥已经在一个充满高质量年轻球队的西部联盟中成为一股正在崛起的力量。加入福克斯只是让这一切更接近现实。


萨克拉门托国王队:B-

我们是否敢于考虑国王队在本赛季剩余时间里 díky 这笔交易实际上会有所提升的可能性?福克斯和拉文在本赛季的大多数综合数据中排名相似,而且自从1月初因臀部挫伤短暂缺席后回归的10场比赛中,福克斯的表现并不稳定。

在那段时间里,福克斯的使用率下降到萨克拉门托进攻的23%——低于受伤前的29%——而且他在处理非投篮手的右手拇指扭伤的同时,两分球命中率只有44%。这可能只是一个低谷,但在短期内令人担忧。

在某种程度上,拉文的高出手量三分球(本赛季场均7.3次出手,命中率45%,高于他职业生涯的39%)可能更适合国王队的首发阵容,该阵容中有两位低出手量三分球射手:德玛尔·德罗赞(DeMar DeRozan)(场均2.7次出手)和多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯(Domantas Sabonis)(场均2.4次出手,尽管命中率为47%)。

根据NBA Advanced Stats的数据,在本赛季至少一起出场750分钟的40个三人阵容中,国王队有4个是三分球出手率最低的10个阵容之一,其中包括德罗赞-福克斯-萨博尼斯三人组。这在进攻端几乎不是致命的,但它给萨克拉门托的季后赛进攻设置了一个上限。

我们已经知道德罗赞在芝加哥的三个赛季里与拉文配合得有多好。拉文和萨博尼斯的配合也应该是很自然的。拉文习惯于与尼古拉·武切维奇(Nikola Vucevic)这样的挡拆外弹中锋合作,根据Second Spectrum的追踪数据,他本赛季从挡拆中得到的每次机会得分实际上比福克斯更多。

国王队可能还需要一个组织控球后卫,或者可以像他们在福克斯缺席的三场比赛中那样依靠集体组织进攻——全部获胜,包括在波士顿的一场。在那段时间里,马利克·蒙克(Malik Monk)场均送出全队最高的8.7次助攻,而萨克拉门托只使用了一名名义上的控球后卫,即新秀德文·卡特(Devin Carter)。

这笔交易的结构将使国王队有能力在截止日期前增加薪金。他们将低于奢侈税线约1050万美元,有两个空缺的球员名单位置,并且可以使用他们1280万美元的非纳税人中产特例来接纳合同。移除赫尔特2025-26赛季1800万美元的薪水也意味着萨克拉门托不再需要担心在本赛季之后增加薪金。

这笔交易也给了国王队更多的选秀权来交易。说他们获得了三个首轮选秀权有点言过其实,因为其中一个是来自夏洛特黄蜂队的受乐透保护的选秀权。当——而不是如果——黄蜂队错过季后赛时,这将转换为2026年和2027年的次轮选秀权,加上萨克拉门托增加的其他三个次轮选秀权。对于一支之前只有一个保证的次轮选秀权可以提供的球队来说,这是一个有用的交易筹码。我非常重视来自明尼苏达森林狼队的2031年无保护的首轮选秀权,虽然不如圣安东尼奥自己2027年的选秀权。

尽管如此,我还是忍不住要想想没有选择的路。不出所料,国王队优先考虑的是通过送出马刺队交出的三个真正的首轮选秀权中的一个给公牛队来换取拉文,从而获得现有人才和薪资灵活性,而不是最大化他们的选秀权回报。

尽管拉文本赛季表现出色,但增加他是有风险的。拉文在2017年作为受限制自由球员与萨克拉门托签下的那份著名的报价合同——芝加哥匹配了——包含了对球队的保护条款,以防拉文在2017年2月为森林狼队效力时左膝前交叉韧带撕裂后出现问题。从那以后,拉文在2022年5月接受了左膝关节镜手术,并在去年2月接受了赛季报销的足部手术。

拉文已经设法恢复了他2021年和2022年入选全明星时的高飞球星的样子。为了让这笔交易奏效,国王队需要拉文在他2024-25赛季之后剩余的两个赛季里保持这种状态。


芝加哥公牛队:B+

从大局来看,公牛队在这笔交易中的表现比细节方面要积极一些。在拉文健康且表现良好的情况下将他交易出去,这是一种现实的自我评估,这是我们近年来在芝加哥没有看到的,当时公牛队拒绝拆散一支几乎没有上升空间的阵容。

交易拉文可能会让芝加哥在周四的截止日期前进行更多涉及老球员的交易,中锋尼古拉·武切维奇在他高水平发挥的情况下是一个强有力的候选人,而朗佐·鲍尔(Lonzo Ball)处于合同的最后一年。我也想知道琼斯是否会在截止日期前被再次交易,因为在没有拉文的情况下,公牛队后场仍然人满为患。

除了交易拉文,芝加哥还为这笔交易中的另外两支球队提供了一个处理他们不需要的薪水的地方。科林斯和赫尔特在2025-26赛季的总薪水将达到3600万美元,而他们在1月份的总出场时间为217分钟。公牛队本可以在今年夏天创造少量的薪金空间,但现在最好保持超过工资帽,并在后卫约什·吉迪(Josh Giddey)身上使用完整的鸟权。

毫无疑问,对于目前低于0.500胜率八场,甚至与费城76人队在东部联盟最后一个附加赛名额上胜率相同的芝加哥球队来说,这是正确的做法。这支球队已经没有前途了,公牛队的重点应该放在增加年轻球员的基础上,而不是追逐附加赛的席位。

对芝加哥来说,最糟糕的情况是以某种方式滑落到乐透的第11顺位,并将这个选秀权送到圣安东尼奥,以完成最初将德罗赞带到公牛队的交易。通过收回这个选秀权,芝加哥已经排除了这种可能性,并且在未来三个赛季都不需要担心乐透抽签。

但值得考虑的是,公牛队是否可能比其他球队的同等选秀权更看重自己选秀权的回归。这取决于芝加哥如何重建,马刺队可能永远不会得到这个选秀权,在2026年和2027年前8顺位保护之后,这个选秀权将转换为2028年的次轮选秀权。

尽管如此,我不会对公牛队做出比我们过去看到的更长远的举动过多吹毛求疵。而且芝加哥有可能通过恢复赫尔特的价值从这笔交易中获得更多。他从萨克拉门托2023年季后赛球队的关键球员(三分球命中率达到职业生涯最高的40%)到本赛季三分球命中率只有30%的下滑一直是个谜。

赫尔特的职业生涯三分球命中率为37.5%,因此2024-25赛季才是异常值,而不是2022-23赛季。也许换个环境会有助于赫尔特回到正轨。

点击查看原文:Spurs-Kings-Bulls trade grades: How does Fox now fit with Wembanyama?

Spurs-Kings-Bulls trade grades: How does Fox now fit with Wembanyama?

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Less than a week after ESPN’s Shams Charania reported the Sacramento Kings were open to trading All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox and that the San Antonio Spurs were Fox’s desired destination, the two teams combined with the Chicago Bulls on a deal Sunday that sent Fox to San Antonio and two-time All-Star Zach LaVine to Sacramento as his replacement.

Sunday’s three-team trade features seven players and multiple first-round picks on the move, with the Kings getting a pair of unprotected first-rounders and the Bulls getting back a protected pick this year that could have gone to the Spurs.

How did each team make out in the trade, and what implications could it have going forward, including the possibility of more moves before Thursday’s trade deadline? Let’s break down Sunday’s trade from all angles.

Jump to a grade:\

Chicago | Sacramento | San Antonio

The deal: Spurs make a splash, but Kings won’t fade away

San Antonio Spurs get:

G De’Aaron Fox\

G Jordan McLaughlin

Sacramento Kings get:

G Zach LaVine\

G Sidy Cissoko\

2025 first-round pick (top-14 protected; via Charlotte)\

2027 first-round pick (via San Antonio)\

2031 first-round pick (via Minnesota)\

2025 second-round pick (via Chicago)\

2028 second-round pick (via Denver)\

2028 second-round pick (own)

Chicago Bulls get:

F Zach Collins\

G Tre Jones\

G Kevin Huerter\

2025 first-round pick (own; via San Antonio)

San Antonio Spurs: A-

Kudos to the Spurs for getting Fox without sacrificing the ability to continue adding to their core. San Antonio managed to hang on to all of its young talent of note by sending back little-used backup center Zach Collins as the primary matching salary rather than guards Keldon Johnson or Devin Vassell, both parts of the Spurs’ future.

Beyond that, San Antonio maintained access to all but one of its own future first-round picks, plus two other valuable assets. The Spurs retained both unprotected picks they have coming from the Atlanta Hawks, including one this year that’s looking increasingly promising with Atlanta on an eight-game losing streak and starting forward Jalen Johnson set to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery.

Additionally, San Antonio has Atlanta’s 2027 first-round pick and swap rights to the Hawks’ 2026 pick in between, plus swaps in 2028 (Boston, top-1 protected), 2030 (Dallas or Minnesota) and 2031 (with Sacramento). Factor in the Spurs’ young players, and they’ll still have the ability to add a third star if one fits into their salary structure. For now, they’ve committed to pairing Wembanyama with Fox, giving their budding superstar a long-term pick-and-roll partner.

Over the past three seasons, Fox has been among the NBA’s most dangerous pick-and-roll scorers. He ranks eighth among the 80 players with at least 500 attempts during that span by shooting an effective 54% in pick-and-roll situations, per Second Spectrum tracking. Opponents won’t want to switch on Fox-Wembanyama pick-and-rolls, giving both players advantages over their defenders, and traditional coverages probably will give Fox an avenue to either score or find his big man.

To set up Fox and Wembanyama for success, San Antonio will want to put maximum shooting around them. That’s where retaining Vassell was important. Vassell is a 37% career 3-point shooter whose high volume (6.5 attempts per game) puts pressure on opposing defenses. It suggests Johnson, who is shooting 31% from deep this season and 35% for his career, might be expendable. And it puts pressure on recent first-round picks Jeremy Sochan (29% from 3) and rookie Stephon Castle (27% from 3) to continue developing from beyond the arc.

Dealing for Fox speeds up the timeline for the Spurs while allowing them to further assess the value of their young players. In an ideal world, San Antonio might have waited longer to make a move like this. Fox is six years older than the 21-year-old Wembanyama and nearly seven years older than Castle.

The concern about how Fox might age on his next contract is also understandable, as he might need to improve his 3-point shooting to remain an All-Star-caliber player. He’s eligible for an extension this summer ahead of the final year of his contract and could sign in conjunction with a renegotiation that uses the Spurs’ cap space, bumping his $37.1 million salary to his projected max of $46.4 million.

Players similar to Fox – my SCHOENE projection system highlights Steve Francis as one example based on their production at the same age – have tended to lose value in their 30s.

It’s unclear if a perfect trade target would have ever come available for the Spurs, considering Fox named the team as a desired destination. Wembanyama’s precocious ability puts inherent pressure on the Spurs to build a team capable of making a playoff run sooner than later. San Antonio played this right by being aggressive in pursuit of Fox without being reckless.

It will be interesting to see if there’s time for the Spurs to make a run at the play-in tournament this season, considering competition that includes the new look-Kings, Dallas Mavericks and Stephen Curry’s Golden State Warriors.

Whatever happens, this deal is more about setting up the Spurs for 2025-26 and beyond. With Wembanyama, San Antonio was already a rising threat in a Western Conference full of quality young teams. Adding Fox simply moves that closer to reality.


Sacramento Kings: B-

Dare we consider the possibility the Kings will actually improve the rest of this season thanks to this trade? Fox and LaVine have rated similarly in most all-in-one stats this season, and Fox’s play has been uneven over the 10 games since he returned from a brief absence because of a glute contusion in early January.

In that span, Fox’s usage rate has dipped to 23% of Sacramento’s offense – down from 29% before the injury – and he’s hitting just 44% of his 2-point attempts while also dealing with a sprain to his non-shooting right thumb. It’s probably just a slump, but it’s worrisome in the short term.

To some degree, LaVine’s high-volume 3-point shooting (7.3 attempts per game at a 45% clip this season, up from 39% for his career) could be a better fit for a Kings starting five featuring two low-volume 3-point shooters in DeMar DeRozan (2.7 attempts per game) and Domantas Sabonis (2.4 per game, though making 47% of them).

Of the 40 three-man lineups that have played at least 750 minutes together this season, according to NBA Advanced Stats, the Kings have four of the 10 lowest 3-point attempt rates that included the DeRozan-Fox-Sabonis trio. That’s hardly fatal offensively, but it puts something of a ceiling on Sacramento’s postseason offense.

We already know how well DeRozan can fit alongside LaVine from their three seasons together in Chicago. The LaVine-Sabonis fit should be natural, too. LaVine is used to working with a pick-and-pop center in Nikola Vucevic and has actually produced more points per chance from his pick-and-rolls this season than Fox’s, per Second Spectrum tracking.

The Kings might also need an organizer at point guard, or could rely on playmaking by committee as they did during Fox’s three-game absence – all wins, including one at Boston. Malik Monk averaged a team-high 8.7 assists in that span as Sacramento used only one nominal point guard, rookie Devin Carter.

The structure of this trade will give the Kings the ability to add salary before the deadline. They will be about $10.5 million below the luxury tax line with two open roster spots, and can use their $12.8 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception to take back contracts. Removing Huerter’s $18 million salary for 2025-26 also means Sacramento no longer has to sweat adding salary beyond this season.

This deal also gives the Kings more picks to trade. Saying they acquired three first-round picks overstates the case, as one of them is lottery protected from the Charlotte Hornets this year. When – not if – the Hornets miss the playoffs, that will convert into second-round picks in 2026 and 2027 to go with three other second-rounders Sacramento added. For a team that had only one guaranteed second-round pick to offer beforehand, that’s useful trade currency. I’d put high value on the unprotected pick coming from the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2031, though not as much as San Antonio’s own pick in 2027.

Still, I can’t help but wonder about the paths not chosen here. To little surprise, the Kings prioritized getting back current talent and cap flexibility over maximizing their draft-pick return by sending one of the three real first-rounders the Spurs surrendered to the Bulls for LaVine.

As effective as LaVine has been this season, adding him carries risk. The offer sheet LaVine famously signed with Sacramento as a restricted free agent in 2017 – matched by Chicago – contained protection for the team in case of issues with LaVine’s left knee after he sustained an ACL tear in February 2017 while playing for the Timberwolves. Since then, LaVine had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee in May 2022 and had season-ending foot surgery last February.

LaVine has managed to come back looking much like the high-flying star who was an All-Star in 2021 and 2022. For this trade to work, the Kings will need LaVine to keep that up over the remaining two seasons on his deal beyond 2024-25.


Chicago Bulls: B+

The Bulls’ side of the trade is a bit more positive from the big-picture standpoint than in terms of the details. Moving LaVine while he’s healthy and playing well is the kind of realistic self-assessment we haven’t seen from Chicago in recent years, when the Bulls have resisted tearing down a roster with little upside.

Trading LaVine might set up Chicago to make more trades involving veterans by Thursday’s deadline, with center Nikola Vucevic a strong candidate while he’s playing at a high level and Lonzo Ball in the final year of his contract. I also wonder whether Jones is rerouted before the deadline, as the Bulls still have a crowd in the backcourt without LaVine.

Besides dealing LaVine, Chicago provided the other two teams in this trade a spot to send their unwanted salaries. Collins and Huerter will make a combined $36 million in 2025-26 and had played a combined 217 minutes in January. The Bulls could have created a modest amount of cap space this summer but now will probably be better off staying over the cap and using full Bird rights on guard Josh Giddey.

Undoubtedly, that’s the right approach for a Chicago team that is currently eight games below .500 and even in the loss column with the Philadelphia 76ers for the final play-in spot in the Eastern Conference. This group was going nowhere, and the Bulls’ focus should be on adding to their base of young talent rather than chasing a play-in appearance.

The worst-case scenario for Chicago was somehow slipping to 11th in the lottery and sending the pick to San Antonio to complete the trade that brought DeRozan to the Bulls in the first place. By getting that pick back, Chicago has taken that possibility off the table and doesn’t have to sweat the lottery any of the next three seasons.

But it’s worth considering whether the Bulls might have valued the return of their own pick more than an equivalent selection from another team. It’s possible depending on how Chicago rebuilds that the Spurs might never have gotten the pick, which would have converted to a 2028 second-round pick after top-8 protection in 2026 and 2027.

Still, I’m not going to quibble much with the Bulls making a move with a longer view than we’re used to seeing. And it’s possible Chicago could get more out of this trade by rehabilitating Huerter’s value. His decline from a key part of Sacramento’s 2023 playoff team by shooting a career-high 40% from 3 to making just 30% beyond the arc this season has been mysterious.

Huerter is a 37.5% career 3-point shooter, so it’s 2024-25 that is the outlier much more than 2022-23. Perhaps a change of scenery will help Huerter get back on track.

By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN

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