By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-01-23 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
NBA常规赛刚刚过半，现在正是对所有30支球队进行半程评估的最佳时机。
我的评分基于球队迄今为止的表现，并很大程度上受到赛季初对球队期望值的影响。一支九月份看起来默默无闻的球队，如果取得同样的战绩可能会得到A，而另一支拥有切实夺冠希望的球队可能只能得到C。
为了提供背景信息，我们列出了ESPN BET季前赛对每支球队的预计胜场数，以及ESPN篮球实力指数（BPI）提供的当前预测胜场数。BPI纳入了球队的胜负记录，并考虑了伤病因素。
除了胜负之外，我也在考虑球队执行目标的情况，包括培养年轻球员和争取乐透签位。一般来说，“B”级意味着球队迄今为止达到了预期，这意味着需要超常发挥才能获得A。
我给出了六个A，一个F，同时也分析了各队如何在赛季后半段提高他们的成绩。
跳转到评分范围：
A | B | C | D | F
跳转到球队：
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
截至1月22日，赛季中期预测胜场数*
'A’级
克里夫兰骑士
成绩：A
季前赛预测胜场数： 48.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 64.8
评级理由： 骑士队拥有NBA最佳战绩，并有望创造队史最佳战绩。在新教练肯尼·阿特金森(Kenny Atkinson)的带领下，他们消除了外界对于首发阵容兼容性的疑虑，并展现出几乎所有球队都无法比拟的阵容深度。达柳斯·加兰(Darius Garland)、多诺万·米切尔(Donovan Mitchell)和埃文·莫布里(Evan Mobley)有望成为自1993年以来骑士队第二次拥有三位全明星球员的阵容。
如何改进： 很难对骑士队提出更多要求，但如果能看到侧翼球员艾萨克·奥科罗(Isaac Okoro)恢复健康并回到正轨就更好了。奥科罗在本月早些时候的五场比赛中三分球17投1中，之后又因为投篮肩关节扭伤而回到场边。
底特律活塞
成绩：A
季前赛预测胜场数： 25.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 40.8
评级理由： 活塞队在1月1日之前就超过了上赛季的胜场数，而且他们并不满足于此。底特律目前排在东部前六，这将确保活塞自2019年以来首次进入季后赛。凯德·坎宁安(Cade Cunningham)在身边更优秀射手的帮助下得到了发展，这使得活塞的成功看起来比过去几十年里的任何一次都更具可持续性。
如何改进： 贾伦·杜伦(Jalen Duren)承担更大的进攻角色将是一个积极的信号。在球队得分前五的球员中，只有坎宁安和后卫杰登·艾维(Jaden Ivey)（因腓骨骨折缺阵）的年龄小于28岁。
休斯顿火箭
成绩：A
季前赛预测胜场数： 43.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 51.5
评级理由： 追随俄克拉荷马城雷霆的脚步，火箭队以创纪录的速度从一支有趣的潜力股变成了争夺主场优势的球队。休斯顿的进攻和防守都排名前十，同时拥有NBA第五年轻的阵容（按出场时间加权）。阿爾帕倫·申京(Alperen Sengun)有望成为自2020年拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克(Russell Westbrook)和詹姆斯·哈登(James Harden)以来球队的首位全明星球员。
如何改进： 如果杰伦·格林(Jalen Green)能够保持1月份场均27.0分和46.3%三分命中率的状态，火箭队将变得更难阻挡。
洛杉矶快船
成绩：A
季前赛预测胜场数： 35.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 45.2
评级理由： 在保罗·乔治(Paul George)离开后，快船队原本预计最多只能争夺附加赛席位，但他们凭借诺曼·鲍威尔(Norman Powell)的突破性表现和老将的深度，在科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)缺席的情况下，仍然保持在西部前六。随着伦纳德的回归，快船队可以巩固自己竞争者的地位——但这只有在他能够恢复状态的情况下才有可能。
如何改进： 打造一支高于平均水平的进攻球队。詹姆斯·哈登(James Harden)和鲍威尔的贡献让快船队的进攻保持稳定，并让他们能够利用NBA第二好的防守。要想赢得季后赛系列赛，快船队必须提高进攻效率——伦纳德的回归（过去两场比赛42分，24投15中）表明他们可以做到。
孟菲斯灰熊
成绩：A
季前赛预测胜场数： 46.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 50.6
评级理由： 我们预计灰熊队本赛季会受益于更健康的阵容。值得注意的是，他们在争夺西部第二名的同时，因伤病缺席的比赛场次仍然排名联盟第二。德斯蒙德·贝恩(Desmond Bane)、贾伦·杰克逊(Jaren Jackson Jr.)和贾·莫兰特(Ja Morant)三人组只一起打了19场比赛，但灰熊队却拥有NBA第四好的净胜分。
如何改进： 考虑到灰熊队接下来的赛程（根据ESPN的篮球实力指数，灰熊队剩余比赛的难度排名联盟第四），仅仅保持在西部前三就已经很令人印象深刻了。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆
成绩：A
季前赛预测胜场数： 57.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 65.1
评级理由： 雷霆队摆脱了中锋切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)和以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因(Isaiah Hartenstein)的伤病困扰（他们还没有一起打过比赛），场均净胜对手12.1分，领先全联盟——如果他们能保持这个数字，这将是NBA历史上最好的纪录。在西部领先七场，俄克拉荷马城可能会在三月底锁定西部第一，届时谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)的MVP之争将成为常规赛剩余时间里最大的悬念。
如何改进： 对于雷霆队来说，最值得关注的是主教练马克·戴格诺特(Mark Daigneault)如何在哈尔滕施泰因和霍姆格伦健康后一起使用他们，让雷霆队在季后赛中使用更大的阵容。
丹佛掘金
成绩：A-
季前赛预测胜场数： 50.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 51.5
评级理由： 自从11胜10负的开局以来，掘金队又回到了西部前四，并且有机会连续第二年获得第二名。将拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克(Russell Westbrook)移至首发阵容，最大限度地提升了他与尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)的化学反应。
如何改进： 保持火热的手感。尽管丹佛队的三分球出手次数不出所料地排在NBA最后一位（掘金队在过去两个赛季都排在倒数前五），但球队39%的命中率排名第三。如果丹佛队能保持这个水平，他们很有机会在季后赛中避开西部领先的雷霆队。
'B’级
圣安东尼奥马刺
成绩：B+
季前赛预测胜场数： 36.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 37.3
评级理由： 在维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)的第二个赛季，马刺队取得了预期的进步，甚至更多。在老将克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)的组织下，圣安东尼奥在1月3日战胜丹佛后，战绩达到了两场胜场差。从那以后，马刺的进步停滞不前，过去七场比赛输掉了六场。
如何改进： 保持48分钟的稳固防守。一支拥有年度最佳防守球员领跑者的球队，其防守效率如何会排在第18位？根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，没有文班亚马的圣安东尼奥阵容的防守效率在联盟中排名前5%，而有他的阵容则排名前78%。
亚特兰大老鹰
成绩：B+
季前赛预测胜场数： 36.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 41.9
评级理由： 在拆散德章泰·默里(Dejounte Murray)-特雷·杨(Trae Young)的二人组后，老鹰队原本预计会与上赛季36胜46负的球队持平。然而，亚特兰大的表现甚至更好。戴森·丹尼尔斯(Dyson Daniels)出色地顶替了默里，以场均3.1次抢断领跑联盟，而杰伦·约翰逊(Jalen Johnson)也成为了球队进攻端的强力二号选择。
如何改进： 从状元秀扎卡里·里萨谢(Zaccharie Risacher)那里得到更好的表现，或者减少他的出场时间。里萨谢在他参加的39场比赛中首发了37场，但三分球命中率只有28%。里萨谢的发展很重要，但更多出场时间是否能转化为进步的证据还不明确。
布鲁克林篮网
成绩：B+
季前赛预测胜场数： 18.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 29.3
评级理由： 篮网队在新教练霍尔迪·费尔南德斯(Jordi Fernandez)的带领下开局强劲，到12月4日已经完成了预计季前赛胜场数的一半。当多里安·芬尼-史密斯(Dorian Finney-Smith)和丹尼斯·施罗德(Dennis Schroder)都处于高水平发挥时，他们通过交易这两名球员储备了多枚二轮签。从那以后，布鲁克林的排名下滑至乐透区第六位，他们正在努力完成本赛季的真正目标：获得一个前十顺位的选秀权。
如何改进： 从可能成为球队未来一部分的年轻球员（包括诺亚·克劳尼(Noah Clowney)和卡姆·托马斯(Cam Thomas)）那里获得稳定的产出，并输掉足够多的比赛，以便在选秀抽签前进入前五名。
纽约尼克斯
成绩：B+
季前赛预测胜场数： 53.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 48.4
评级理由： 通过交易米卡尔·布里奇斯(Mikal Bridges)和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)牺牲了阵容深度，尼克斯队有可能以更高的季后赛上限的名义在常规赛中退步。令人鼓舞的是，由于唐斯的全明星级表现，尼克斯队仍然有可能超过上赛季的50胜和+4.6的净胜分。
如何改进： 将防守提升到联盟前十水平。尼克斯队排名第14的防守是汤姆·锡伯杜(Tom Thibodeau)时代以来相对于联盟平均水平最差的。仅凭纽约第二的进攻就足以在常规赛中取胜，但要进入分区决赛需要更均衡的表现。
奥兰多魔术
成绩：B+
季前赛预测胜场数： 47.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 43.8
评级理由： 奥兰多最好的三名球员——保罗·班凯罗(Paolo Banchero)、杰伦·萨格斯(Jalen Suggs)和弗朗茨·瓦格纳(Franz Wagner)——自去年10月以来就没有一起打过比赛。但魔术队凭借联盟前五的防守保持了胜率超过50%，并且在萨格斯和瓦格纳回归后，他们有望与缺席了34场比赛后本月回归的班凯罗一起发起冲击。
如何改进： 或许投进一些三分球？奥兰多不仅三分命中率联盟垫底（30%），而且其他球队都比他们好得多。其他所有球队的命中率都至少达到了33%。自从2011-12赛季的夏洛特山猫队（7胜59负——NBA历史上最差的胜率）以来，还没有哪支球队的命中率如此之低。
达拉斯独行侠
成绩：B
季前赛预测胜场数： 49.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 43.8
评级理由： 在卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)圣诞节小腿拉伤缺席之前，达拉斯距离西部第二只差一场比赛。从那以后，独行侠的战绩为4胜10负，同时还要应对凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)、纳吉·马歇尔(Naji Marshall)以及现在预计将缺席两到三个月的德里克·莱弗利二世(Dereck Lively II)的缺阵。
如何改进： 恢复健康并避免参加附加赛。达拉斯现在赢的比赛越多，就越能避免东契奇仓促复出并再次受伤的风险。健康比排名更重要，独行侠上赛季以四号种子的身份打进了总决赛，但从附加赛开始的征程将充满挑战。
波士顿凯尔特人
成绩：B-
季前赛预测胜场数： 58.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 55.7
评级理由： 只有以上赛季64胜的标准来看，一支胜率达到70%的球队才会略微令人失望。自12月23日以来，波士顿的战绩为9胜7负，但考虑到凯尔特人在此期间+9.5的净胜分仍然排名NBA第三，很难对此过于担心。
如何改进： 提高稳定性。波士顿以12场20分以上的大胜领跑联盟，但在考虑到对手和比赛地点后，只有快船和勇士的比赛结果比他们更不稳定。
印第安纳步行者
成绩：B-
季前赛预测胜场数： 47.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 44.6
评级理由： 在9胜14负后跌至五场胜场差以下，步行者队已经扭转了颓势，目前排在东部前五。他们还没有达到上赛季47胜的ペース，但令人鼓舞的是，球星后卫泰雷斯·哈利伯顿(Tyrese Haliburton)的投篮命中率每个月都在提高。
如何改进： 回到快节奏的比赛风格。上赛季的印第安纳队比对手跑得更快，但根据Inpredictable.com的数据，步行者的出手速度从最快下降到了本赛季的第16位。更快的节奏应该有助于提升一支场均得分从第二下降到第九的球队的进攻。
萨克拉门托国王
成绩：B-
季前赛预测胜场数： 46.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 40.7
评级理由： 国王队成为了第一支进行教练更迭的球队，在六连败期间用道格·克里斯蒂(Doug Christie)取代了迈克·布朗(Mike Brown)，我们可以用这种方式来评价他们的上半赛季。在克里斯蒂的带领下，萨克拉门托队势如破竹，基翁·埃利斯(Keon Ellis)在轮换阵容中得到提升，全明星球员多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯(Domantas Sabonis)也提升了自己的表现。
如何改进： 进入西部前六对于排名第七的国王队来说是一个现实的目标。他们在联盟净胜分排名第六（场均+2.8分），并且自教练更迭以来，他们在焦灼比赛中的战绩已经趋于平稳。
'C’级
洛杉矶湖人
成绩：C+
季前赛预测胜场数： 42.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 44.4
评级理由： 湖人队本赛季的开局出奇地健康，勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)和安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)总共只缺席了六场比赛。然而，湖人队的净胜分仍然排在西部第12位（-2.0），这表明他们超过50%的胜率可能难以维持。
如何改进： 加强防守。在交易走丹吉洛·拉塞尔(D’Angelo Russell)之后，湖人队如果没有重大交易，可能没有太多进攻端的提升空间。但是他们有足够的防守天赋，不应该排在联盟第23位。贾里德·范德比尔特(Jarred Vanderbilt)的即将回归应该会有所帮助。
迈阿密热火
成绩：C+
季前赛预测胜场数： 43.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 40.8
评级理由： 如果赛季在周四结束，热火队将不得不赢下两场附加赛才能以九号种子的身份进入季后赛。然而，迈阿密从净胜分的角度来看表现得更好（+1.0），排名东部第五。而且他们只落后第六名一场比赛。
如何改进： 对于迈阿密来说，吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)就像房间里的大象一样显眼。这位六届全明星球员周三再次被禁赛，这次是两场。如果热火队在2月6日截止日期前找不到合适的巴特勒交易，他们只能希望他能在迈阿密重新找回对篮球的热爱——以及在今年夏天可能转会之前给追求者留下深刻印象的需求。
波特兰开拓者
成绩：C+
季前赛预测胜场数： 21.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 31.1
评级理由： 年轻外线球员德尼·阿夫迪亚(Deni Avdija)、斯库特·亨德森(Scoot Henderson)和谢顿·夏普(Shaedon Sharpe)的成长是一个积极的方面，波特兰应该会超过上赛季的21胜。然而，开拓者队仍然经常被对手压制，-8.4的净胜分排名联盟第29位，而波特兰老将的不佳表现可能会影响他们的交易价值。
如何改进： 开拓者队希望看到亨德森继续他在一月份的出色表现（三分命中率43%），并希望新秀中锋多诺万·克林根(Donovan Clingan)以强势表现结束本赛季。但由于重建缺乏一个明确的核心，乐透签位也至关重要。
夏洛特黄蜂
成绩 : C
季前赛预测胜场数： 31.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 27.2
评级理由： 在新任主教练查尔斯·李(Charles Lee)的带领下，黄蜂队的防守有所改善，防守效率从第29位跃升至第19位。不幸的是，即使拉梅洛·鲍尔(LaMelo Ball)场均接近30分，他们也无法得分：夏洛特队的进攻排名第28位。
如何改进： 考虑到鲍尔和中锋马克·威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)过去两个赛季都没有打过超过43场比赛，黄蜂队当然希望看到他们保持健康，但他们也希望通过赢得选秀抽签来获得附近的杜克大学超级新星库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)。
芝加哥公牛
成绩：C
季前赛预测胜场数： 28.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 35.8
评级理由： 公牛队似乎注定要参加东部附加赛，他们已经领先第十名的费城三场。不幸的是，芝加哥看起来离真正的季后赛竞争还很远。公牛队-2.9的净胜分排名联盟第22位。
如何改进： 考虑到公牛队在2021年交易德玛尔·德罗赞(DeMar DeRozan)时欠圣安东尼奥一个前十保护的首轮签，在排名上落后于马刺是公牛队最重要的任务。这将使他们在保留选秀权的同时，在乐透抽签中下滑一个位置。
明尼苏达森林狼
成绩：C
季前赛预测胜场数： 51.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 40.7
评级理由： 即使根据我的数据预测对森林狼的期望相对较低，看到他们徘徊在50%胜率附近，我仍然感到失望。明尼苏达没有为迈克·康利(Mike Conley)的衰落做好计划，而且从乐透新秀罗伯·迪林厄姆(Rob Dillingham)那里得到的回报也很少。周五在纽约是迪林厄姆本赛季第一次在球队获胜的比赛中出场超过10分钟。
如何改进： 在焦灼比赛中更好的运气将对森林狼队有所帮助，他们已经打了联盟最多的29场进入关键时刻（最后五分钟内分差在五分以内）的比赛，并且战绩为13胜16负。明尼苏达+1.9的净胜分在西部排名第八。
犹他爵士
成绩：C
季前赛预测胜场数： 27.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 23.1
评级理由： 爵士队10胜31负的战绩在意料之中。在过去两个赛季开局强劲并在乐透区中段徘徊之后，如果赛季今天结束，犹他将拥有第二好的乐透概率 。 让青少年球员担任后卫是积累乐透概率的最简单方法，而爵士队的新秀二人组以赛亚·科利尔(Isaiah Collier)和科迪·威廉姆斯(Cody Williams)的表现不出所料地很挣扎。但二年级球员基翁特·乔治(Keyonte George)和布莱斯·森萨博(Brice Sensabaugh)，以及三年级中锋沃克·凯斯勒(Walker Kessler)在其他方面都取得了进步。
如何改进： 继续保持足够的竞争力，打一些焦灼的比赛但不要赢。爵士队在进入关键时刻的比赛中战绩为4胜13负，联盟垫底。
华盛顿奇才
成绩：C
季前赛预测胜场数： 19.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 17.3
评级理由： 华盛顿拥有NBA最差战绩和-14.4的净胜分（有可能打破纪录）并不奇怪。奇才队有三名首轮秀经常出场，按出场时间加权，他们拥有NBA最年轻的阵容。华盛顿希望新秀们正在经历的磨难能够转化为更光明的未来。与此同时，乔丹·普尔(Jordan Poole)以职业生涯最高的40%三分命中率重建了自己的价值。
如何改进： 奇才队在联盟垫底的排名上拥有足够的缓冲空间（落后犹他4.5场），他们不必担心如何输球。相反，华盛顿应该希望轻松达到两位数的胜场，并避免成为联盟历史上输球最多的球队。
金州勇士
成绩：C-
季前赛预测胜场数： 43.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 40.0
评级理由： 勇士队希望休赛期的改头换面，包括克莱·汤普森(Klay Thompson)的离开，能够帮助他们重返季后赛。在12胜3负的开局期间，这看起来几乎是板上钉钉的事情，但金州的胜率已经回落到50%以下，如果赛季今天结束，他们将完全无缘附加赛 。
如何改进： 重新找回三分球的手感。一支拥有自2020-21赛季以来三分球命中数最多的两名球员（历史领跑者斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)和休赛期引援巴迪·希尔德(Buddy Hield)）的勇士队，其三分球命中率却略高于联盟平均水平。投进更多三分球也能帮助金州掩盖他们糟糕的快攻防守。
密尔沃基雄鹿
成绩：C-
季前赛预测胜场数： 49.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 46.5
评级理由： NBA杯看起来像是雄鹿队本赛季的亮点。除了在NBA杯比赛中取得7胜0负的战绩外，雄鹿队的常规赛战绩略高于50%，净胜分为+1.9。密尔沃基仍然有望获得主场优势，避免在季后赛中与凯尔特人分在同一半区可能也不是坏事，但几乎没有迹象表明他们在赢得NBA杯后还能继续争夺总冠军。
如何改进： 雄鹿队的防守一直很稳固，但扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)-达米安·利拉德(Damian Lillard)的组合却只打出了NBA第12位的进攻，这不是任何人所预想的。一个关键原因：雄鹿队的进攻篮板排名垫底，而他们在两个赛季前还排名前十。
多伦多猛龙
成绩：C-
季前赛预测胜场数： 29.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 26.7
评级理由： 在上赛季将一个乐透签送到马刺以换取雅各布·珀尔特尔(Jakob Poeltl)之后，猛龙队本赛季的胜率排名联盟倒数第三，这让他们有机会从中受益。尽管如此，多伦多肯定希望看到球队年轻球员有更好的表现。伊曼纽尔·奎克利(Immanuel Quickley)由于伤病只打了九场比赛，而同样缺席了一些比赛的斯科蒂·巴恩斯(Scottie Barnes)也没有保持上赛季34%的三分命中率。
如何改进： 猛龙队希望以倒数前三的战绩结束本赛季，这样他们就有最大的机会获得状元签。
'D’级
新奥尔良鹈鹕
成绩：D
季前赛预测胜场数： 45.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 26.1
评级理由： 没有人能够预料到鹈鹕队会遭遇如此多的伤病困扰，他们已经使用了23套首发阵容，其中只有一套使用了超过四次。然而，除了特雷·墨菲三世(Trey Murphy III)和新秀伊夫·米西(Yves Missi)之外，即使是健康的球员也都没有达到预期，这已经成为了一个失败的赛季。
如何改进： 在这一点上，在排名榜上后程发力对鹈鹕来说可能是最糟糕的事情。他们应该考虑交易布兰登·英格拉姆(Brandon Ingram)，并希望能有一些乐透运气。
菲尼克斯太阳
成绩：D-
季前赛预测胜场数： 49.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 40.9
评级理由： 太阳队将在2.16亿美元的薪资之外支付联盟最高的1.68亿美元奢侈税，而且他们甚至不能确定能否进入季后赛。菲尼克斯距离西部第六名只有一步之遥，但无论是球队艰难的剩余赛程，还是-1.7的糟糕净胜分，都表明他们不太可能取得这样的成绩。
如何改进： 或许可以引进吉米·巴特勒？周二与犹他爵士的交易——将太阳队2031年的首轮签拆分为三个价值较低的选秀权——似乎是大交易的前奏。或许这将是最终对菲尼克斯奏效的交易。
'F’级
费城76人
成绩：F
季前赛预测胜场数： 49.5
赛季中期预测胜场数： 34.4
评级理由： 在引进保罗·乔治(Paul George)与其他全明星球员乔尔·恩比德(Joel Embiid)和泰雷斯·马克西(Tyrese Maxey)搭档后，76人队以冠军的雄心开始了本赛季。我们从未想过76人队欠俄克拉荷马城的前六保护首轮签会变得如此重要。由于恩比德只打了13场状态不佳的比赛，乔治整个赛季都处于低迷状态，而其他球员的表现也不尽如人意，76人队可能会在乐透之夜祈祷他们能够跳升并保留自己的选秀权。
如何改进： 对于费城来说，转向争取乐透概率可能仍然不值得。不知何故，76人队距离附加赛只有三场比赛的差距。获得第十名意味着他们要寄希望于在某种程度上保持健康以进行季后赛的角逐。
点击查看原文：NBA 2024-25: Midseason grades for all 30 teams
NBA 2024-25: Midseason grades for all 30 teams
With the NBA’s regular season just past its halfway point, it’s the perfect time to hand out midterm grades to all 30 teams.
My grades, based on performance to date, are strongly influenced by a team’s expectations entering the season. The same record that produces an A for a team that looked like an also-ran in September could be a C for another with realistic championship hopes.
For context, we’ve included ESPN BET’s projected over/under win total for each team from the preseason alongside the current projection provided by ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which incorporates win-loss record and accounts for injuries.
Beyond wins and losses, I’m also considering how well teams are executing their goals, including developing young talent and securing lottery positioning. Generally speaking, a “B” grade means a team has met expectations thus far, meaning overperformance is required to get an A.
I’ve handed out six of those, plus one F, while also looking at how teams can improve their grades over the second half of the schedule.
Jump to a grade range: \
A’s | B’s | C’s | D’s | F’s
Jump to a team:\
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE\
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND\
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN\
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX\
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
*Midseason projected wins as of Jan. 22
‘A’ grades
**Cleveland Cavaliers\
Grade: A**
Preseason projected wins: 48.5\
Midseason projected wins: 64.8
Why this grade: The Cavaliers boast the NBA’s best record and are on track for the most wins in franchise history. Under new coach Kenny Atkinson, they’ve answered any doubts about how their starters fit together and demonstrated as much depth as nearly any team. Cleveland could have three All-Stars for just the second time since 1993 in Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley.
How they can improve: It’s hard to ask much more of the Cavaliers, but it would be nice to see wing Isaac Okoro get healthy and back on track. Okoro shot 1-of-17 on 3s during a five game-stretch earlier this month before returning to the sideline because of an AC joint sprain in his shooting shoulder.
**Detroit Pistons\
Grade: A**
Preseason projected wins: 25.5\
Midseason projected wins: 40.8
Why this grade: The Pistons surpassed last season’s win total by Jan. 1 and aren’t content with that. Detroit is in the top six in the East, which would guarantee the Pistons’ first playoff appearance since 2019. Cade Cunningham’s development, aided by better shooting around him, makes this seem more sustainable than any other Detroit success in decades.
How they can improve: Jalen Duren stepping into a larger offensive role would be a positive. Only Cunningham and guard Jaden Ivey (sidelined by a fibula fracture) are younger than age 28 among the team’s top five scorers.
**Houston Rockets\
Grade: A**
Preseason projected wins: 43.5\
Midseason projected wins: 51.5
Why this grade: Following in the footsteps of the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Rockets went from fun up-and-comer to competing for home-court advantage in record time. Houston ranks in the top 10 in offense and defense with the NBA’s fifth-youngest roster, weighted by minutes played. Alperen Sengun could become the team’s first All-Star since Russell Westbrook and James Harden in 2020.
How they can improve: If Jalen Green can keep up anything approaching his 27.0 points per game in January on 46.3% 3-point shooting, the Rockets will become much tougher to stop.
**LA Clippers\
Grade: A**
Preseason projected wins: 35.5\
Midseason projected wins: 45.2
Why this grade: Expected to contend for the play-in at best after Paul George’s departure, the Clippers have instead used a breakthrough campaign from Norman Powell and veteran depth to stay in the West’s top six with Kawhi Leonard sidelined. With Leonard back in the lineup, the Clippers can solidify themselves as contenders – but only if he can return to form.
How they can improve: Build an above-average offense. Contributions from James Harden and Powell have kept the Clippers afloat on offense, allowing them to take advantage of the NBA’s second-best defense. To win a playoff series, the Clippers will have to be more potent – and Leonard’s return (42 points on 15-of-24 shooting in his past two games) suggests they can be.
**Memphis Grizzlies\
Grade: A**
Preseason projected wins: 46.5\
Midseason projected wins: 50.6
Why this grade: We expected the Grizzlies to benefit from better health this season. Remarkably, they’re in contention for the No. 2 seed in the West while still ranking second in the league in games missed because of injury or illness. The trio of Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant has played just 19 games together, yet Memphis has the NBA’s fourth-best point differential.
How they can improve: Given the schedule ahead for the Grizzlies, who have the fourth-hardest slate of remaining games according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, merely staying in the West’s top three would be impressive.
**Oklahoma City Thunder\
Grade: A**
Preseason projected wins: 57.5\
Midseason projected wins: 65.1
Why this grade: The Thunder have shaken off injuries to centers Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, who have yet to play together, to outscore opponents by a league-high 12.1 points per game – which would set the best mark in NBA history if they can maintain it. Seven games up in the West, Oklahoma City could clinch the conference by late March, leaving Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP candidacy as the biggest drama remaining in the regular season.
How they can improve: The most interesting thing to watch for the Thunder is how coach Mark Daigneault deploys Hartenstein and Holmgren together once they’re healthy, giving Oklahoma City bigger lineups to use in the playoffs.
**Denver Nuggets\
Grade: A-**
Preseason projected wins: 50.5\
Midseason projected wins: 51.5
Why this grade: Since an 11-10 start, the Nuggets are back among the top four in the West and within striking distance of claiming the No. 2 seed for the second consecutive year. Moving Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup has maximized his chemistry with Nikola Jokic.
How they can improve: Keep up the hot shooting. Although Denver is predictably last in the NBA in 3-point attempts (the Nuggets were in the bottom five the past two seasons), the team’s 39% accuracy ranks third. If Denver can sustain that, the Nuggets have a good chance to stay on the other side of the playoff bracket from the West-leading Thunder.
‘B’ grades
**San Antonio Spurs\
Grade: B+**
Preseason projected wins: 36.5\
Midseason projected wins: 37.3
Why this grade: In Victor Wembanyama’s second season, the Spurs have taken an expected step forward and then some. With veteran Chris Paul organizing the team, San Antonio reached two games over .500 with its win in Denver on Jan. 3. Since then, the Spurs’ progress has stalled with six losses in their past seven games.
How they can improve: Maintaining 48 minutes of solid defense. How does a team with the front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year rank 18th in defensive rating? Per Cleaning the Glass, San Antonio lineups without Wembanyama rate in the 5th percentile leaguewide on defense, as compared with the 78th percentile with him.
**Atlanta Hawks\
Grade: B+**
Preseason projected wins: 36.5\
Midseason projected wins: 41.9
Why this grade: The expectation was the Hawks would be on par with last season’s 36-46 team after breaking up the Dejounte Murray-Trae Young duo. Instead, Atlanta has been even better. Dyson Daniels has excelled replacing Murray, leading the league in steals (3.1 per game), while Jalen Johnson has emerged as a strong No. 2 option on offense.
How they can improve: Get better play from No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher or reduce his role. Risacher has started 37 of the 39 games he has played but is shooting just 28% on 3s. Risacher’s development is important, but the evidence that playing more translates into progress is mixed.
Brooklyn Nets\
Grade: B+
Preseason projected wins: 18.5\
Midseason projected wins: 29.3
Why this grade: The Nets started strong under new coach Jordi Fernandez, getting halfway to their projected preseason win total by Dec. 4. They stocked up on second-round picks by trading Dorian Finney-Smith and Dennis Schroder when both were playing at a high level. Since then, Brooklyn has slid to sixth in the lottery standings, working to accomplish the real goal of this season, a top-10 pick in the draft.
How they can improve: Get solid production from developing players who could be part of the team’s future, including Noah Clowney and Cam Thomas, and lose enough games to move into the top five entering the draft lottery.
**New York Knicks\
Grade: B+**
Preseason projected wins: 53.5\
Midseason projected wins: 48.4
Why this grade: By sacrificing depth in their trades for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks had the potential to take a step back during the regular season in the name of higher playoff upside. It’s encouraging, then, that the Knicks could still surpass last season’s 50 wins and plus-4.6 point differential thanks largely to Towns’ All-Star play.
How they can improve: Defend at a top-10 level. The Knicks’ 14th-ranked defense is their worst relative to league average of the Tom Thibodeau era. New York’s No. 2 offense alone is good enough to win in the regular season, but reaching the conference finals will require more balance.
**Orlando Magic\
Grade: B+**
Preseason projected wins: 47.5\
Midseason projected wins: 43.8
Why this grade: Orlando’s three best players – Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner – haven’t played together since October. But the Magic have used a top-five defense to stay above .500 and within position to make a run once Suggs and Wagner rejoin Banchero, who missed 34 games before returning this month.
How they can improve: Maybe make some 3s? It’s not just that Orlando is last in the league in 3-point percentage (30%), it’s that nobody else is even close. Every other team is shooting at least 33%. No team has been so inaccurate since the 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats, who went 7-59 – the worst winning percentage in NBA history.
**Dallas Mavericks\
Grade: B**
Preseason projected wins: 49.5\
Midseason projected wins: 43.8
Why this grade: Dallas was a game out of second in the West before Luka Doncic’s calf strain on Christmas Day sidelined him. Since then, the Mavericks have gone 4-10 while dealing with absences for Kyrie Irving, Naji Marshall and now Dereck Lively II, who is expected to miss two to three months.
How they can improve: Get healthy and avoid the play-in tournament. The more Dallas can win now, the better to avoid rushing Doncic back and risking another injury. Health is more important than seeding for the Mavericks, who made the Finals as the No. 4 seed last season, but a run from the play-in would be challenging.
**Boston Celtics\
Grade: B-**
Preseason projected wins: 58.5\
Midseason projected wins: 55.7
Why this grade: It’s only by last season’s 64-win standards that a team winning 70% of its games could be even a mild disappointment. Boston has gone 9-7 since Dec. 23, but it’s hard to worry too much when the Celtics’ plus-9.5 point differential in that span still ranks third in the NBA.
How they can improve: Better consistency. Boston leads the league with 12 wins by 20-plus points, but only the Clippers and Warriors have seen their results vary more from game to game after accounting for opponent and location.
**Indiana Pacers\
Grade: B-**
Preseason projected wins: 47.5\
Midseason projected wins: 44.6
Why this grade: After dropping five games below .500 at 9-14, the Pacers have righted the ship and are in the East’s top five. They’re still shy of last season’s 47-win pace but have to be encouraged that star guard Tyrese Haliburton has improved his shooting percentages each month so far.
How they can improve: Get back to playing with pace. Last season’s Indiana team outran its opponents, but the Pacers have dropped from the fastest time to shoot, per Inpredictable.com, to 16th this season. A quicker pace should help boost an offense that has declined from second to ninth in per-possession scoring.
**Sacramento Kings\
Grade: B-**
Preseason projected wins: 46.5\
Midseason projected wins: 40.7
Why this grade: Here’s one way we can grade a first half that saw the Kings become the first team to make a coaching change, replacing Mike Brown with Doug Christie in the midst of a six-game losing streak. Sacramento has surged under Christie, with Keon Ellis being elevated in the rotation and All-Star Domantas Sabonis picking up his play.
How they can improve: Finishing in the West’s top six is a realistic goal for the Kings, who are seventh in the standings. They’re also sixth in the conference in point differential (plus-2.8 points per game) and have seen their record in close games even out since the coaching change.
‘C’ grades
**Los Angeles Lakers\
Grade: C+**
Preseason projected wins: 42.5\
Midseason projected wins: 44.4
Why this grade: The Lakers started the season remarkably healthy, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis missing a combined six games. Yet the Lakers are still 12th in the West in point differential (minus-2.0), suggesting their above-.500 record might prove difficult to sustain.
How they can improve: Improve defensively. After trading D’Angelo Russell, the Lakers probably don’t have much upside to explore on offense without a major trade. But there’s enough defensive talent to be better than 23rd in the league. The imminent return of Jarred Vanderbilt could help there.
**Miami Heat\
Grade: C+**
Preseason projected wins: 43.5\
Midseason projected wins: 40.8
Why this grade: If the season ended Thursday, the Heat would have to win twice in the play-in just to reach the playoffs as the No. 9 seed. Miami has performed much better from a point differential standpoint (plus-1.0), however, ranking fifth in the East. And the Heat are only a game out of moving up to sixth.
How they can improve: There’s a Jimmy Butler-sized elephant in the room for Miami. The six-time All-Star was once again suspended Wednesday, this time for two games. If the Heat can’t find an acceptable Butler trade by the Feb. 6 deadline, they’ll have to hope he can rediscover his joy for basketball in Miami – and his need to impress suitors before potentially changing teams this summer.
**Portland Trail Blazers\
Grade: C+**
Preseason projected wins: 21.5\
Midseason projected wins: 31.1
Why this grade: The development of young perimeter players Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe has been a positive, and Portland should surpass last season’s 21 wins. Yet the Blazers still get dominated on a regular basis, producing a minus-8.4 point differential that ranks 29th in the league, and the poor play of Portland’s veterans might impact their trade value.
How they can improve: The Blazers want to see Henderson continue a strong January in which he’s shooting 43% from 3-point range, as well as have rookie center Donovan Clingan finish the season strong. But without a clear centerpiece to their rebuild, lottery positioning will be critical, too.
Charlotte Hornets\
Grade: C
Preseason projected wins: 31.5\
Midseason projected wins: 27.2
Why this grade: The Hornets have improved defensively under first-year coach Charles Lee, jumping from 29th in defensive rating to 19th. Unfortunately, even with LaMelo Ball averaging nearly 30 points, they can’t score: Charlotte ranks 28th in offense.
How they can improve: The Hornets would surely love to see Ball and center Mark Williams stay healthy, given neither has played more than 43 games the previous two seasons, but they also want to be in position to land nearby Duke superstar Cooper Flagg by winning the draft lottery.
**Chicago Bulls\
Grade: C**
Preseason projected wins: 28.5\
Midseason projected wins: 35.8
Why this grade: The Bulls seem headed to the East play-in tournament by default, having opened up a three-game lead over Philadelphia for 10th. Unfortunately, Chicago looks no closer to actually competing in the postseason. The Bulls’ minus-2.9 point differential ranks 22nd in the league.
How they can improve: Given the top-10-protected pick Chicago owes San Antonio from the 2021 trade to acquire DeMar DeRozan, staying behind the Spurs in the standings is the Bulls’ most important task. That would allow them to slide down a spot in the lottery while keeping the pick.
**Minnesota Timberwolves\
Grade: C**
Preseason projected wins: 51.5\
Midseason projected wins: 40.7
Why this grade: Even with relatively lower expectations for the Timberwolves based on my stats-based projections, I’m still disappointed to see them hovering around .500. Minnesota didn’t have a plan in place for Mike Conley’s decline and has gotten little from lottery pick Rob Dillingham. Friday in New York was the first time this season Dillingham played more than 10 minutes in a win.
How they can improve: Better fortune in close games would help the Timberwolves, who have played a league-high 29 games that entered clutch time (within five points in the last five minutes) and have gone 13-16 in them. Minnesota’s plus-1.9 differential ranks a comfortable eighth in the West.
Utah Jazz\
Grade: C
Preseason projected wins: 27.5\
Midseason projected wins: 23.1
Why this grade: The Jazz’s 10-31 record is going to plan. After starting strong and losing their way into the middle of the lottery the past two seasons, Utah would have the second-best odds if the season ended today**.** Playing teenagers at guard is the easiest way to accumulate lottery odds, and the Jazz’s rookie duo of Isaiah Collier and Cody Williams has predictably struggled. But there has been progress elsewhere from second-year players Keyonte George and Brice Sensabaugh, plus third-year center Walker Kessler.
How they can improve: Continue being competitive enough to play close games but not win them. The Jazz are a league-worst 4-13 in games that reach clutch time.
**Washington Wizards\
Grade: C**
Preseason projected wins: 19.5\
Midseason projected wins: 17.3
Why this grade: It’s no surprise that Washington has the NBA’s worst record and a record-threatening minus-14.4 point differential. With three first-round picks seeing regular action, the Wizards boast the youngest roster in the NBA when weighted by minutes played. Washington is hoping the lumps the rookies are taking will translate into a brighter future. Meanwhile, Jordan Poole has rebuilt his value by shooting a career-high 40% from 3-point range.
How they can improve: The Wizards have a large enough cushion at the bottom of the overall league standings (4½ games behind Utah) that they don’t have to worry about trying to lose. Instead, Washington should hope to comfortably reach double-digit wins and avoid the most losses in league history.
**Golden State Warriors\
Grade: C-**
Preseason projected wins: 43.5\
Midseason projected wins: 40.0
Why this grade: The Warriors hoped an offseason makeover, including the departure of Klay Thompson, would help them return to the playoffs. That looked nearly certain during a 12-3 start, but Golden State has slipped back to under .500 and would miss the play-in entirely if the season ended today**.**
How they can improve: Get back to splashing 3s. A Warriors team with the top two players in made 3-pointers since 2020-21 (career leader Stephen Curry and offseason addition Buddy Hield) is shooting barely better than league average from downtown. Making more 3s would also help Golden State paper over a leaky transition defense.
**Milwaukee Bucks\
Grade: C-**
Preseason projected wins: 49.5\
Midseason projected wins: 46.5
Why this grade: The NBA Cup is looking like the highlight of Milwaukee’s season. Aside from a 7-0 record in NBA Cup play, the Bucks have been a game over .500 with a middling plus-1.9 point differential. Milwaukee is still on track for home-court advantage, and avoiding the Celtics’ side of the bracket might not be the worst thing, but there’s little indication the NBA Cup victory will be followed by a title run.
How they can improve: The Bucks have been solid defensively, but a Giannis Antetokounmpo-Damian Lillard pairing resulting in the NBA’s 12th-best offense was not what anyone envisioned. One key culprit: Milwaukee is dead last in offensive rebounding after ranking in the top 10 two seasons ago.
Toronto Raptors\
Grade: C-
Preseason projected wins: 29.5\
Midseason projected wins: 26.7
Why this grade: After sending a lottery pick to the Spurs last season in the Jakob Poeltl trade, the Raptors are in position to benefit from the NBA’s third-worst winning percentage this season. Still, Toronto was surely hoping for better performances from the team’s young talent. Immanuel Quickley has played just nine games because of injuries, and Scottie Barnes, who has missed time as well, hasn’t maintained last season’s 34% 3-point shooting.
How they can improve: The Raptors would like to finish with a bottom-three record, giving them the best possible chance at landing the No. 1 pick.
‘D’ grades
**New Orleans Pelicans\
Grade: D**
Preseason projected wins: 45.5\
Midseason projected wins: 26.1
Why this grade: Nobody could have predicted the injury woes that have befallen the Pelicans, who have used 23 starting lineups and have used only one more than four times. With the notable exceptions of Trey Murphy III and rookie Yves Missi, however, even the healthy New Orleans players have performed short of expectations in what has already become a lost season.
How they can improve: At this point, a late charge up in the standings might be the worst possible thing for the Pelicans. They should explore a Brandon Ingram trade and hope to catch some lottery luck.
**Phoenix Suns\
Grade: D-**
Preseason projected wins: 49.5\
Midseason projected wins: 40.9
Why this grade: The Suns are set to pay a league-high $168 million in luxury tax on top of $216 million in salary and aren’t even certain to reach the postseason. Phoenix is within reach of sixth in the West, but neither the team’s difficult remaining schedule nor a dismal minus-1.7 point differential suggests such a run is coming.
How can they improve: Perhaps with Jimmy Butler? Tuesday’s trade with Utah – splitting the Suns’ 2031 first-round pick into three less valuable ones – seems like a precursor for a big deadline move. Perhaps this would be the one that finally works for Phoenix.
‘F’ grades
**Philadelphia 76ers\
Grade: F**
Preseason projected wins: 49.5\
Midseason projected wins: 34.4
Why this grade: The Sixers began the season with championship aspirations after adding Paul George to fellow All-Stars Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Never did we imagine the top-six protection on the first-round pick Philadelphia owes Oklahoma City might matter. With Embiid limited to 13 uneven games, George in a seasonlong slump and supporting players coming up short, the Sixers might spend lottery night hoping they jump up and keep their pick.
How they can improve: It’s probably still not worth it for Philadelphia to pivot toward lottery odds. The 76ers are, somehow, just three games out of the play-in. Finishing 10th would mean hoping to stay healthy for some kind of playoff run.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN