By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-01-20 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
NBA常规赛已经过半，现在正是时候来审视一下西部季后赛席位的争夺情况。赛季过半，俄克拉荷马雷霆队已经领先西部其他球队6.5个胜场。
典型的西部风格，接下来的11支球队之间总共只相差7个胜场。然而，在这个集团内部，少数几支球队正在争夺季后赛主场优势，并力争进入西部决赛，而其他球队则希望避免参加附加赛。
11月20日，我根据常规赛第一个月的表现将西部15支球队分成了五个梯队。现在，我将之前在第二梯队的七支球队重新划分成了两个更小的组别。
有一支球队格外引人注目：金州勇士队。11月份，勇士队与雷霆队并列第一梯队。当时，勇士队战绩为10胜3负，净胜分高达+10.5分。但自那以后，勇士队的战绩为11胜17负，下滑了多个梯队。
以下球队按字母顺序排列，与排名无关——这就是为什么达拉斯独行侠队（战绩不如洛杉矶湖人队）却位于更高的梯队。让我们来看看这是如何发生的，以及其他有助于预测西部剩余赛季及以后走势的关键趋势。
跳转到梯队：
一支独秀
有望进入西部决赛？
目标是季后赛
只求附加赛
那么，选秀大会什么时候举行？
梯队 1：一支独秀
俄克拉荷马雷霆队
当前战绩： (35胜7负；西部第一)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 24胜3负
梯队变化：
周五在达拉斯的失败让俄克拉荷马雷霆队在赛季过半时未能保持70胜的胜率，这场比赛MVP候选人谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)轮休，而前一天晚上，他在与东部领头羊克利夫兰骑士队的备受期待的二番战中表现出色。尽管如此，雷霆队+12.8的净胜分将比NBA历史上任何一支球队都要好，远远超过2015-16赛季赢得73场比赛的金州勇士队（+10.8，历史第八）。
接下来会发生什么： 俄克拉荷马雷霆队应该会轻松获得西部第一，并且是赢得西部冠军的热门球队。我们还没有看到雷霆队的完整锋线阵容，因为以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因(Isaiah Hartenstein)和切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)都还没有同时上场，后者至少还需要三周才能复出。
梯队 2：有望进入西部决赛？
达拉斯独行侠队
当前战绩： (23胜19负；西部第七)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 15胜12负
梯队变化：
从排名来看，独行侠队似乎不属于这个梯队，但当他们阵容齐整时，他们的表现除了雷霆队之外，不逊于西部任何一支球队。在卢卡·东契奇(Luka Dončić)和凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)因伤缺阵期间，独行侠队经历了2胜6负的低谷，排名下滑。欧文已经从椎间盘突出伤势中恢复，他的存在应该能帮助达拉斯在东契奇从小腿拉伤中恢复之前保持竞争力。
在东契奇和欧文共同出场的20场比赛中，独行侠队取得了12胜8负的战绩，净胜分高达+7.9分；而在两位球星中只有一人出场的14场比赛中，他们的战绩也达到了9胜5负。
接下来会发生什么： 独行侠队在季后赛首轮获得主场优势的希望岌岌可危，但他们在去年以较低种子身份连续赢下两个系列赛并最终进入NBA总决赛，所以他们仍然是一个威胁，并且可以说是西部第二强的球队，前提是他们保持健康。
丹佛掘金队
当前战绩： (26胜16负；西部第四)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 18胜11负
梯队变化：
在12月的第一周，掘金队的战绩为11胜10负，看起来有掉入附加赛的危险。从那以后，丹佛取得了15胜6负的战绩，一跃进入季后赛上半区，并且距离第二名休斯顿火箭队仅差2.5个胜场。
贾马尔·穆雷(Jamal Murray)和拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克(Russell Westbrook)在那段时间都表现出色。穆雷场均得到22.3分（真实命中率59.1%），看起来像一个真正的争冠球队二号得分手。威斯布鲁克已经适应了与尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokić)作为首发一起打球，在这段时间场均得到14.9分（真实命中率58.9%）。自12月8日以来，只有骑士队的进攻效率比丹佛更高。
接下来会发生什么： 掘金队仍然面临着关于他们能否在总冠军级别的比赛中做好防守的问题。自2000-01赛季的湖人队以来，还没有哪支球队在常规赛防守效率低于平均水平的情况下赢得总冠军。2022-23赛季的掘金队最接近，他们的防守排名第15位，但在季后赛中提升到了第4位。
休斯顿火箭队
当前战绩： (28胜13负；西部第二)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 18胜8负
梯队变化：
目前，火箭队以二号种子的身份将拥有西部决赛的主场优势，这使得他们成为雷霆队最有可能的对手，这是基于使用ESPN篮球实力指数（BPI）的预测得出的。在BPI的模拟中，休斯顿有32%的概率进入西部决赛，这将是他们自2018年以来的第一次。
接下来会发生什么： 对一支季后赛经验不足的年轻球队保持谨慎是可以理解的。火箭队出场时间前九名的球员中，只有两名（狄龙·布鲁克斯(Dillon Brooks)和弗雷德·范弗利特(Fred VanVleet)）打过季后赛。在ESPN BET的西部夺冠赔率中，休斯顿排名第六，与湖人队并列。
考虑到湖人队只有60%的隐含概率进入季后赛，这感觉过于保守。休斯顿获得前三名的机会比这更大。
洛杉矶快船队
当前战绩： (24胜17负；西部第五)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 16胜10负
梯队变化：
快船队上周本应处于第三梯队，但凭借着连续三场胜利，总共净胜102分，他们升至了第二梯队。在上周背靠背的比赛中，快船队以巨大的比分战胜了实力较弱的篮网队和开拓者队，追平了NBA历史上最大的两场连胜总净胜分纪录。周日，快船队战胜了同城对手湖人队，这也是湖人队第一次造访Intuit Dome球馆。
快船队目前在西部排名第五，随着科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)在缺席赛季前两个月后逐渐恢复状态，他们的排名可能会继续提高。
接下来会发生什么： 所有的目光都集中在伦纳德身上。如果这位两届NBA总决赛MVP能够恢复到上赛季的状态（他场均出场34.3分钟，创职业生涯新高），快船队可能会成为球队历史上第二次赢得多个季后赛系列赛的争冠者。在经历了预料之中的状态低迷后，伦纳德在过去两场比赛中48分钟内共得到42分。
孟菲斯灰熊队
当前战绩： (27胜15负；西部第三)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 18胜7负
梯队变化：
灰熊队可能是西部最值得关注的球队，尤其是在2月6日交易截止日期之前。他们的净胜分+8.3排名NBA第四，仅落后于被认为最有可能赢得总冠军的三支球队（克利夫兰骑士队、俄克拉荷马雷霆队和卫冕冠军波士顿凯尔特人队），而且灰熊队可能会利用卢克·肯纳德(Luke Kennard)的到期合同和一整套首轮选秀权进行一些运作。
接下来会发生什么： 赛程强度会对灰熊队的表现产生一些影响。根据BPI，他们目前为止面对的对手是西部所有球队中最弱的，而他们剩余的赛程也是这个梯队中最艰难的。
这可能会促使孟菲斯通过交易来提升球队实力，避免排名下滑到第四，因为这很可能意味着他们需要战胜雷霆队才能进入西部决赛。
梯队 3：在季后赛竞争中，但附加赛（或更糟）的风险依然存在
金州勇士队
当前战绩： (21胜20负；西部第十)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 11胜17负
梯队变化：
我们是否应该质疑勇士队的快速开局？当然，金州的投篮命中率是一个值得怀疑他们能否保持下去的理由。勇士队的三分球命中率为39%，排名NBA第二，同时将对手的三分球命中率限制在32%，为联盟最低。从那以后，金州的三分球命中率为35%，而对手的三分球命中率为38%，排名联盟第六高。
发生的事情不仅仅是回归均值。根据Second Spectrum的量化投篮概率指标（该指标考虑了投篮的位置和类型、与附近防守者的距离以及投篮者的能力），勇士队的投篮质量与第一个月相比基本没有变化。
金州的开局并没有像克利夫兰那样相对于投篮质量而言那么火热，而后者也没有冷却下来。在过去两个月里，勇士队相对于他们的投篮质量而言，投篮表现比其他任何球队都差。
接下来会发生什么： 利用更轻松的赛程。令人鼓舞的消息是，根据BPI，金州面对的赛程是西部第二难的，这意味着勇士队的竞争力比他们的+0.6净胜分（西部第九）所显示的更强。因此，BPI模拟显示金州有很大机会进入前六名。
洛杉矶湖人队
当前战绩： (22胜18负；西部第六)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 12胜14负
梯队变化：
上次我们关注湖人队时，他们的战绩是赛季最佳，比.500胜率高出6场。从那以后，湖人队的战绩略低于.500。早期，湖人队容易被大比分击败，而很少对对手造成同样的打击。
在本赛季中，湖人队在分差达到两位数的比赛中战绩为6胜12负，这是所有胜率达到或超过.500的球队中最差的。因此，湖人队的净胜分在西部排名第12，只领先于乐透区球队。
接下来会发生什么： 那些险胜同样重要，而且湖人队是这个小组中BPI预测战绩最好的球队。两年前，安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)和勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)带领球队从附加赛一路杀入西部决赛，我们将拭目以待，看看詹姆斯能否在40岁时再次达到那样的水平。
明尼苏达森林狼队
当前战绩： (22胜20负；西部第八)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 14胜14负
梯队变化：
越来越清楚的是，森林狼队将无法重复去年进入西部前三的成绩，因此他们不太可能重返西部决赛。将卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)送到纽约尼克斯队的交易承担了太多的责任，而37岁的迈克·康利(Mike Conley)的下滑却没有得到足够的重视。康利在篮下的命中率只有33%，在所有至少出手50次两分的球员中最低。
康利的低迷表现让他在本月早些时候失去了首发位置，也让明尼苏达的组织进攻能力不足。这影响了鲁迪·戈贝尔(Rudy Gobert)，他的使用率降至职业生涯最低的12%，低于上赛季的15%。
接下来会发生什么： 尽管森林狼队的八人轮换阵容总共只缺席了六场比赛，但他们的战绩仍然徘徊在.500左右。任何伤病都会暴露明尼苏达薄弱的阵容深度，并可能使森林狼队跌出这个梯队。
萨克拉门托国王队
当前战绩： (22胜20负；西部第九)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 14胜13负
梯队变化：
国王队的梯队自11月以来没有变化，但这掩盖了许多故事。在12月底解雇迈克·布朗(Mike Brown)之前，国王队遭遇了五连败。在道格·克里斯蒂(Doug Christie)作为临时教练的首秀失利后，萨克拉门托取得了七连胜。在克里斯蒂的执教下，国王队表现得更好，得分效率排名前五，但最大的变化是他们在关键比赛中的命运逆转。
在布朗执教下，萨克拉门托在NBA官方高级数据定义的“关键时刻”（常规时间最后五分钟内分差在五分以内）的比赛中战绩为6胜13负，排名联盟垫底；而在克里斯蒂接手后，他们在这些情况下的战绩为5胜0负，排名联盟第一。
接下来会发生什么： 他们在关键比赛中的战绩有所改善，但尽管他们的净胜分为+2.3，国王队仍然在西部排名第九。除了众多竞争对手之外，萨克拉门托获得前六名的最大障碍是赛程。根据BPI，国王队剩余赛程的对手是这个梯队中最强的。
梯队 4：只求附加赛
菲尼克斯太阳队
当前战绩： (21胜10负；西部第十一)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 12胜14负
梯队变化：
太阳队8胜1负的开局有些侥幸，很大程度上依赖于一系列的险胜。菲尼克斯在那段时间关键时刻的比赛中取得了7胜0负的战绩，而自那以后他们的战绩为7胜9负。早期的指标更为积极，因为太阳队很健康。当德文·布克(Devin Booker)和凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)都出场时，菲尼克斯的战绩为18胜7负，尽管其中有很多险胜；而当两人中有一人缺席时，他们的战绩为2胜13负，净胜分为-8.3。
接下来会发生什么： 新引进的中锋尼克·理查兹(Nick Richards)在周六的太阳队首秀中得到21分（8投7中）和11个篮板，他的持续良好表现是菲尼克斯升入第三梯队的最大希望。
拥有NBA最高的薪资总额却错失季后赛，并且今年没有首轮选秀权（通过与布鲁克林篮网队的互换，选秀权将前往休斯顿，而篮网队是在杜兰特交易中获得的），这对太阳队来说将是一场噩梦。
圣安东尼奥马刺队
当前战绩： (19胜22负；西部第十二)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 12胜14负
梯队变化：
在赛程过半时，马刺队的胜场数即将追平过去两个赛季的22胜——并且他们也处于附加赛的竞争中。引进老将后卫克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)的效果正如圣安东尼奥所希望的那样。根据NBA官方高级数据，当保罗和维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)同时在场时，球队的净效率值为+7.3。
接下来会发生什么： 根据统计预测，马刺队进入附加赛的机会渺茫，因为他们在西部12支季后赛竞争球队中战绩最差，而且剩余赛程难度仅次于菲尼克斯。但在文班亚马的第二个NBA赛季中，能够参与到季后赛的讨论中，对圣安东尼奥来说已经是一个重要的进步。
梯队 5：展望乐透抽签
新奥尔良鹈鹕队
当前战绩： (11胜32负；西部第十四)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 7胜21负
梯队变化：
鹈鹕队因伤病而避免一个糟糕赛季的任何希望都破灭了。首先，新奥尔良的伤病情况并没有好转多少。布兰登·英格拉姆(Brandon Ingram)在CJ·麦科勒姆(CJ McCollum)和德章泰·穆雷(Dejounte Murray)复出后就离开了赛场，然后赫伯特·琼斯(Herbert Jones)肩部唇状肌撕裂，无限期缺阵。
即使鹈鹕队拥有大部分主力球员，他们的表现也未尽如人意。穆雷整个赛季都陷入了投篮低迷，他的投篮命中率只有39%，创职业生涯新低，而新奥尔良的防守效率排名第26位——比上赛季下降了20位。
接下来会发生什么： 鹈鹕队可以从核心阵容中增加一名乐透秀中得到安慰，并希望像灰熊队那样强势反弹，灰熊队在2023-24赛季也经历了类似的伤病潮。
波特兰开拓者队
当前战绩： (14胜28负；西部第十三)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 8胜20负
梯队变化：
虽然开拓者队希望能够更稳定地保持竞争力（他们以20分或以上的分差输掉了14场比赛，与华盛顿奇才队并列联盟第一，是其他任何球队的两倍多），但本赛季的重点是波特兰年轻球员的发展。
在这方面有一些积极的方面。新来的丹尼·阿夫迪贾(Deni Avdija)表现出色，图马尼·卡马拉(Toumani Camara)和谢顿·夏普(Shaedon Sharpe)承担了更重要的角色，斯科特·亨德森(Scoot Henderson)最近也展现了进步。
接下来会发生什么： 开拓者队最大的问题是他们的老将表现挣扎，尤其是杰拉米·格兰特(Jerami Grant)和德安德烈·艾顿(Deandre Ayton)——在我的球员胜利贡献值（WARP）指标中，两人都排在NBA倒数20名之内。这可能会让波特兰在2月6日交易截止日期前难以在潜在交易中获得价值。
犹他爵士队
当前战绩： (10胜30负；西部第十五)
自11月20日以来的战绩： 7胜19负
梯队变化：
在西部垫底的三支球队中，犹他拥有最差的战绩和最高的净胜分，这对乐透抽签来说是一个理想的组合。爵士队在关键时刻的比赛中战绩为4胜11负，净效率值为-23.9，仅领先于奇才队。犹他队战略性地利用这些情况进行实战训练。
新秀以赛亚·科利尔(Isaiah Collier)在关键时刻的出场时间排名球队第四，科迪·威廉姆斯(Cody Williams)和凯尔·菲利波夫斯基(Kyle Filipowski)也排名前十，如果爵士队不是专注于培养年轻球员，这种情况不太可能发生。
接下来会发生什么： 5月12日，NBA乐透抽签大会的日子，圈起来。
点击查看原文：NBA West tiers: A clear favorite but the playoff race remains tight
NBA West tiers: A clear favorite but the playoff race remains tight
The midpoint of the NBA’s regular season has arrived, which is a good time to check the state of the Western Conference playoff race. Halfway through the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder have separated themselves from everyone else in the West, taking a 6½-game lead in the standings.
In typical West fashion, the next 11 teams are separated by just seven games total. Within that pack, however, a gap has opened among the handful of teams battling for home-court advantage with a clear path to the Western Conference finals while the rest are hoping to avoid the play-in tournament.
On Nov. 20, I placed all 15 West teams into five tiers based on how they stacked up one month into the regular season. I’ve now sorted the seven teams that were in my larger second tier into two different, smaller groups.
One team that stands out? The Golden State Warriors, who ranked alongside the Thunder in my top tier in November. At that point, the Warriors were 10-3 with a robust plus-10.5 point differential. Golden State has gone 11-17 since and slid multiple tiers.
The teams are listed in alphabetical order and don’t match the standings – which is why the Dallas Mavericks (with a worse record than the Los Angeles Lakers) are in a higher tier. Let’s look at how that happened and other key trends that help predict the rest of the regular season and beyond in the wild West.
Jump to a tier:\
The clear-cut favorite\
Conference finals worthy?\
Goal is the playoffs\
Just aim for the play-in\
So, when is the draft?
Tier 1: The clear-cut favorite
Oklahoma City Thunder
Current record: (35-7; 1st in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 24-3\
Tier change:
Friday’s loss in Dallas, a game MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sat out a night after dominating the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers in a highly anticipated rematch of the league’s top two teams this season, knocked Oklahoma City off a 70-win pace at the halfway point. Still, the Thunder’s plus-12.8 point differential would be better than any team in NBA history, far ahead of the Golden State team that won 73 games in 2015-16. (plus-10.8, eighth best all time).
What happens next: Oklahoma City should cruise to the No. 1 seed as the clear favorite to win the West. We haven’t seen the Thunder’s frontcourt at full strength with both Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren, who remains out for at least three more weeks, in the lineup.
Tier 2: Conference finals worthy?
Dallas Mavericks
Current record: (23-19; 7th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 15-12\
Tier change:
Taking a glance at the standings, the Mavericks don’t belong in this tier, but at full strength, they’ve been as good as anyone but Oklahoma City in the West. The Mavericks sank in the standings during a 2-6 stretch while Luka Doncic nor Kyrie Irving sat out due to injuries. Irving has already returned from a bulging disk, and his presence should help Dallas survive until Doncic is back from his calf strain.
The Mavericks are 12-8 with an impressive plus-7.9 point differential in the 20 games Doncic and Irving have played together, and a respectable 9-5 in the 14 games one of the two stars has been available.
What happens next: The Mavericks’ hopes of home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs are in jeopardy, but after winning two series as the lower seed en route to last year’s NBA Finals, they remain a threat and arguably the conference’s second-best team when healthy.
Denver Nuggets
Current record: (26-16; 4th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 18-11\
Tier change:
When the Nuggets were 11-10 during the first week of December, they appeared to be in danger of falling into the play-in mix. Since then, Denver has gone 15-6 to surge into the top half of the playoff bracket and also move within 2½ games of Houston for the No. 2 spot.
Both Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook have excelled during that stretch. Murray is averaging 22.3 points (59.1% True Shooting) and looking like a No. 2 scorer on a serious contender. Westbrook has fit playing with Nikola Jokic as a starter and is at 14.9 PPG (58.9% True Shooting) in that span. Only the Cavaliers have scored more efficiently than Denver since Dec. 8.
What happens next: The Nuggets still face questions about their ability to defend at a championship level. No team has won the title with a below-average defensive rating in the regular season since the 2000-01 Lakers. Denver came closest in 2022-23 with a defense that ranked 15th, which improved to fourth in the playoffs.
Houston Rockets
Current record: (28-13; 2nd in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 18-8\
Tier change:
As of now, the Rockets would have home-court advantage through the Western Conference finals as the No. 2 seed, which makes them the most likely opponent for the Thunder based on projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). Houston would reach the conference finals for the first time since 2018 in 32% of BPI simulations.
What happens next: It’s understandable to be cautious about a young team with little playoff experience. Just two of the Rockets’ top nine players by minutes (Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet) have played in the playoffs. Houston’s odds of winning the West at ESPN BET rank sixth, tied with the Lakers.
That feels too conservative given the Lakers are given only 60% implied odds to make the playoffs. Houston has better chances than that of a top-three seed.
LA Clippers
Current record: (24-17; 5th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 16-10\
Tier change:
The Clippers would have started in the third tier last week but moved up on the strength of three consecutive wins by a combined 102 points. After tying the largest combined margin of victory in NBA history during a back-to-back set by blasting the lowly Nets and Trail Blazers last week, the Clippers picked on someone their own size Sunday, beating the rival Lakers in their crosstown rivals’ first trip to the Intuit Dome.
The Clippers are fifth in the West and could improve as Kawhi Leonard works his way back into form after missing the season’s first two months.
What happens next: All eyes on Kawhi. If the two-time NBA Finals MVP can get back to his form last season, when he played a career-high 34.3 minutes, the Clippers could emerge as contenders to win multiple playoff series for just the second time in franchise history. After showing predictable rust, Leonard has combined for 42 points in 48 minutes during his past two games.
Memphis Grizzlies
Current record: (27-15; 3rd in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 18-7\
Tier change:
The Grizzlies might be the most interesting West team to watch leading up to the Feb. 6 trade deadline. Their plus-8.3 differential ranks fourth in the NBA, behind only the three teams considered most likely to win the championship (Cleveland, Oklahoma City and the defending champion Boston Celtics), and Memphis could make a move with Luke Kennard’s expiring contract and a full slate of first-round picks.
What happens next: Schedule strength takes a little air out of the Grizzlies’ performance. They’ve faced the easiest opposition of any West team so far, per BPI, and have the hardest remaining schedule of any team in this tier.
That could provide Memphis with an incentive to upgrade via a trade and avoid slipping to fourth in the standings, which likely would mean going through the Thunder to reach the conference finals.
Tier 3: In the playoff mix, but play-in (or worse) still looms
Golden State Warriors
Current record: (21-20; 10th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 11-17\
Tier change:
Should we have questioned the Warriors’ fast start? Certainly, Golden State’s shooting was a reason to disbelieve its ability to sustain it. The Warriors shot 39% from 3-point range, which ranked second in the NBA, and held opponents to 32% beyond the arc, the lowest in the league. Since then, Golden State has shot 35% while opponents are shooting the sixth-highest percentage from 3 (38%).
What has happened is beyond things evening out. The Warriors’ shot quality largely hasn’t changed from the first month, per Second Spectrum’s quantified shot probability metric, which considers the location and type of shot, distance to nearby defenders and the shooter’s ability.
Golden State didn’t start as hot relative to shot quality as Cleveland, which hasn’t cooled down. Over the past two months, the Warriors have shot worse relative to their shot quality than any other team.
What happens next: Taking advantage of an easier schedule. The encouraging news is Golden State has faced the second-hardest schedule for any West team, per BPI, meaning the Warriors have been more competitive than their plus-0.6 point differential (ninth in the West) indicates. As a result, BPI simulations give Golden State a fighting chance to finish in the top six.
Los Angeles Lakers
Current record: (22-18; 6th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 12-14\
Tier change:
When we last checked on the Lakers, they were a season-best six games above .500. Since then, the Lakers have been slightly worse than break even. Early on, the Lakers had a tendency to get blown out and rarely do the same to opponents.
Over the course of the season, the Lakers are 6-12 in games decided by double figures, the worst mark for any team with a .500-or-better record. As a result, the Lakers’ point differential ranks 12th in the West, ahead of just the teams in the lottery tier.
What happens next: Those close wins count the same, and the Lakers have the best projected record by BPI in this group. Anthony Davis and LeBron James led a run to the conference finals from the play-in two years ago, and we’ll see if James can reach that level again at age 40.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Current record: (22-20; 8th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 14-14\
Tier change:
It’s increasingly clear the Timberwolves won’t repeat last year’s top-three finish, making it unlikely they can get back to the conference finals. Too much of the blame for that has gone to the trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks and too little to Mike Conley’s decline at age 37. Conley is shooting 33% inside the arc, lowest among all players with at least 50 2-point attempts.
Conley’s downturn, which cost him his role in the starting lineup earlier this month, has left Minnesota light on playmaking. That has hurt Rudy Gobert, whose usage rate is a career-low 12%, down from 15% last season.
What happens next: The Timberwolves are mired near .500 despite their eight-man rotation combining to miss just six games. An injury that exposes Minnesota’s shaky depth could drop the Timberwolves out of this tier.
Sacramento Kings
Current record: (22-20; 9th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 14-13\
Tier change:
The Kings’ tier hasn’t changed since November but that glosses over a lot of the story. The Kings lost five in a row before they fired Mike Brown in late December. After losing in Doug Christie’s debut as interim coach, Sacramento won seven in a row. The Kings have played better under Christie, scoring at a top-five rate, but the biggest change has been a reversal of fortunes in close games.
An NBA-worst 6-13 in games that qualify as “clutch” by the NBA Advanced Stats definition (within five points in the last five minutes of regulation) under Brown, Sacramento is a league-best 5-0 in those scenarios since Christie took over.
What happens next: Their record has improved in close games, but the Kings are ninth in the West despite their plus-2.3 point differential. Sacramento’s biggest obstacle to claim a top-six seed, aside from the number of competitors for that spot, is the schedule. The Kings have the hardest remaining opponents in this tier, according to BPI.
Tier 4: Just aim for the play-in
Phoenix Suns
Current record: (21-10; 11th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 12-14\
Tier change:
The Suns’ 8-1 start was fluky, relying heavily on a series of close wins. Phoenix went 7-0 in clutch games during that span and has gone 7-9 since. Early indicators were more positive because the Suns were healthy. Phoenix is 18-7 when both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant play, albeit with many of those close wins, and 2-13 with a minus-8.3 differential when either sits out.
What happens next: Newly acquired center Nick Richards, who had 21 points on 7-of-8 shooting and 11 rebounds in his Suns debut Saturday, continuing to fit well is Phoenix’s best hope of moving up into the third tier.
Missing the postseason with the NBA’s highest payroll and no first-round pick this year (it’s headed to Houston via a swap with the Brooklyn Nets, who got it in the Durant trade) would be a nightmare scenario for the Suns.
San Antonio Spurs
Current record: (19-22; 12th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 12-14\
Tier change:
At the schedule’s midway point, the Spurs are on the verge of matching the 22 wins they won each of the past two seasons – and are in the play-in mix. Adding veteran guard Chris Paul has worked exactly as San Antonio hoped. With Paul and Victor Wembanyama on the court, the team has a plus-7.3 net rating, per NBA Advanced Stats.
What happens next: According to statistical projections, the Spurs are a long shot to reach the play-in because they have the worst record of the 12 postseason contenders in the West, and the second-hardest remaining schedule after Phoenix. But being in the conversation counts as a major step forward for San Antonio in Wembanyama’s second NBA campaign.
Tier 5: Looking forward to the lottery
New Orleans Pelicans
Current record: (11-32; 14th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 7-21\
Tier change:
Any hope of the Pelicans avoiding a lackluster season due to injuries is gone. First, New Orleans hasn’t gotten much healthier. Brandon Ingram went out of the lineup just as CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray were returning, then Herbert Jones suffered a labrum tear in his shoulder that has him sidelined indefinitely.
Even when the Pelicans have had most of their key players, they haven’t performed as hoped. Murray has been mired in a season-long shooting slump, making a career-low 39% of his shots, and New Orleans ranks 26th in defensive rating – down 20 spots from last season.
What happens next: The Pelicans can take solace in adding a lottery pick to their core and hoping to bounce back in the same fashion as the Grizzlies, who had a similar spate of injuries in 2023-24.
Portland Trail Blazers
Current record: (14-28; 13th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 8-20\
Tier change:
Though the Blazers hoped to be more consistently competitive (their 14 losses by 20-plus points are tied with the Washington Wizards atop the league, more than twice any other team), this season is about the development of Portland’s young talent.
There have been positives in that regard. Newcomer Deni Avdija has excelled, Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe have stepped into larger roles and Scoot Henderson has shown progress recently.
What happens next: The Blazers’ biggest issue is their veterans have struggled, most notably Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton – both in the NBA’s bottom 20 in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. That could make it challenging for Portland to get value in a potential trade ahead of the Feb. 6 deadline.
Utah Jazz
Current record: (10-30; 15th in the Western Conference)\
Record since Nov. 20 check-in: 7-19\
Tier change:
Of the West’s bottom three teams, Utah has the worst record and the best point differential, an ideal combination for lottery purposes. The Jazz are 4-11 with a minus-23.9 net rating in clutch situations, ahead of only the Wizards. Utah has strategically used those situations for on-the-job training.
Rookie Isaiah Collier is fourth on the team in clutch minutes, and Cody Williams and Kyle Filipowski are also in the top 10, which likely wouldn’t happen if the Jazz weren’t focused on their youth movement.
What happens next: Circling May 12 on the calendar, which is the date of the NBA draft lottery.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN