By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-01-20 11:15:18
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
全明星赛还有不到一个月的时间，是时候挑选西部全明星球员了。
新年伊始，这意味着有一件事是肯定的：争论为什么他们最喜欢的球员落选全明星。
好消息是，你可以从这里开始！我将列出我认为配得上入选全明星的球员，而不是我认为会入选的球员。如果这篇文章给了你一些启发，请记住明天（1 月 20 日星期一）是投票今年全明星的最后一天，所以让以赛亚·科利尔(Isaiah Collier)为他的 41.4% 的真实命中率感到高兴还为时不晚。
玩笑归玩笑，让我们深入探讨一下西部全明星阵容。如果你还没看过，一定要去看看东部阵容。
首发
后场
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander): 可以说是 MVP 的领跑者，谢伊已经巩固了自己作为联盟最佳得分手的的地位。这位“关键先生”场均得到 31.6 分、5.4 个篮板和 6 次助攻，三项命中率分别为 53.1%/35.2%/89.7%。他的场均三分出手数也达到了职业生涯最高的 5.8 次，这使得谢伊成为一个不可阻挡的进攻力量，能够在任何时间、任何地点得分。
安东尼·爱德华兹(Anthony Edwards): 第二个后场位置的选择要困难得多，因为没有人像卢卡(Luka Dončić)那样突出——如果他出场次数足够多的话。我最终选择了爱德华兹，因为他迄今为止的出场时间最长（1541 分钟），而且与稍后将讨论的其他后卫相比，他是唯一一个防守高于平均水平的选择。他的得分（26.1 分）、真实命中率（58.6%）和正负值（+5.4）也都创下了职业生涯新高。哦，我有没有提到他是球队中唯一一个可靠的进攻选择，而且没有“兰德尔式”的毛病？
前场
小贾伦·杰克逊(Jaren Jackson Jr.): 小杰克逊本赛季的表现值得更多的认可。由于莫兰特(Ja Morant)挥之不去的伤病困扰，小杰克逊无疑是目前排名西部第三的孟菲斯灰熊队的最佳球员。作为除文班亚马之外最具统治力的防守力量，小杰克逊的场均得分（22.6 分）与去年持平，但效率更高（49% 对 44.4%）。他的犯规次数也比往年少了很多，也应该参与到最佳阵容的讨论中。
维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama): 刚满 21 岁的文班亚马现在已经是一名真正的前十球员，并且正在敲响前五的大门。他已经兑现了人们的期望，甚至做得更好，成为了最佳防守球员的热门人选：马刺队在文班亚马在场时正负值为 +4.2（进攻效率 114.4，防守效率 110.2），而当他不在场时，球队的正负值则骤降至 -11.9（进攻效率 109.3，防守效率 121.2）。此外，这位法国天才球员已经是历史上进攻端最多才多艺的大个子之一，他拥有历史级别的空接威胁，同时还能以场均 9.1 次出手命中 35.3% 的三分球。
尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic): 作为地球上最好的球员，约基奇的表现不知何故还在不断进步。今年，他的得分 (30.4)、助攻 (9.9)、三分球出手次数 (4.5) 和三分球命中率 (47.1%) 都创下了职业生涯新高。不知何故，约基奇 +26.4 的正负值也是他职业生涯最高的，考虑到他曾在多个赛季没有贾马尔·穆雷(Jamal Murray)和/或小迈克尔·波特(Michael Porter Jr.)的情况下打球，这令人震惊（也让丹佛掘金队担忧）。简而言之，我们正在见证一位排名前十的历史最佳篮球运动员的巅峰时期，所以不要将其视为理所当然。
替补
后场
詹姆斯·哈登(James Harden): 哈登入选或许是一个有争议的选择，但他绝对配得上今年的全明星。他一直是这支以防守为基础的快船队的进攻引擎，而洛杉矶快船队令人惊讶地排在西部第五，而很多人之前都认为他们会垫底。哈登 39.8%/34.6%/88.5% 的命中率并不理想，但他对快船队的影响是不可否认的：他的正负值为 +6.3，快船队在他出场时的进攻效率略低于平均水平（112.3，第 42 个百分位），而在他缺席时则完全低迷（108.2，第 17 个百分位）。
斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry): 场均“仅”得到 23 分，库里依然闪耀的球星光芒开始暗淡。即便如此，他也是金州勇士队还能争夺附加赛席位的唯一原因，因为勇士队阵容中没有其他可靠的得分手。库里 +12.1 的正负值显示了他在勇士队中的重要性，勇士队在他出场时的进攻效率非常高（119.4，第 85 个百分位），而在他缺席时则变成了联盟中最差的（102.1，第 3 个百分位）。
前场
安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis): 在赛季初的火热开局之后，戴维斯的状态变得不稳定，就像湖人队的其他球员一样。尽管如此，他仍然是一个攻防两端都具有统治力的球员，现在他是球队中无可争议的最佳球员，场均得到 25.8 分和 11.9 个篮板，真实命中率为 59.9%。戴维斯的防守在本赛季出现了令人担忧的下滑，对手在距离篮筐四英尺以内的命中率高达（并非巧合的）69.3%，而湖人队没有他的防守效率反而略好。即便如此，他仍然是湖人队目前排名西部第六的最大原因，即使他们的位置并不稳固。
多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯(Domantas Sabonis): 在经历了糟糕的开局之后，国王队现在排名第九，他们的逆袭是由萨博尼斯带领的。他的得分 (20.6) 和篮板 (14.1) 都创下了职业生涯新高，但最重要的是，萨博尼斯现在在外线也需要被重视，因为他场均出手 2.4 次三分球，命中率高达 47.8%(!!!)。即使这个数字最终不可避免地下降，防守球员现在也需要在比以前更远的地方盯防萨博尼斯，而他 +12.8 的正负值也是联盟中最好的之一。
杰伦·威廉姆斯(Jalen Williams): 作为西部最佳球队的第二好球员，小威廉姆斯在球场上无所不能。从打中锋到防守对手，他可能是整个联盟攻防两端最全能的球员。场均 20.6 分、5.7 个篮板和 5.2 次助攻的数据也令人印象深刻，小威廉姆斯也应该会在赛季末首次入选最佳阵容。
外卡球员
阿尔佩伦·申京(Alperen Sengun): 作为西部第二好球队的最佳球员，申京尽管命中率有所下降，但也应该入选全明星：上赛季他的投篮命中率为 53.7%，两分球命中率为 56.7%，而本赛季这些数字分别下降到了 49.1% 和 51.8%。然而，他用改进的防守弥补了这一点，火箭队在他效力期间的防守效率首次提升 (-4.6)，这也是他职业生涯的第一次。就个人而言，当申京作为主要防守者时，对手在距离篮筐六英尺以内的投篮命中率也下降了 4.7%，所以这不仅仅是球队整体防守的功劳。在他最薄弱的环节提升到平均水平，理所当然地帮助申京首次入选全明星赛。
凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant): 奇怪的是，杜兰特的高阶数据全面下降（他在 EPM 中仅排名第 41 位），但他对太阳队的重要性是不可否认的：菲尼克斯太阳队在他缺席的比赛中战绩为 1 胜 9 负。杜兰特仍然场均得到 27.4 分，三项命中率分别为 52.1%/37.3%/82.2%，并且是赛季初的 MVP 候选人，这些也很难被忽视。
等等，勒布朗在哪儿？？？
你不会以为我会不解释就忽略勒布朗吧？其实很简单：如果你尽可能客观地选择今年的全明星球员，“国王”的入选理由充其量也值得怀疑。是的，他的数据仍然惊人（23.8 分、7.5 个篮板、8.8 次助攻），但他实际在球场上的影响力却不足。首先，湖人队在勒布朗在场时的正负值实际上是 -5.7，他的正负值为 -13.5(!!!)。这在很大程度上与攻防两端糟糕的三分球运气有关：当他出场时，湖人队的三分球命中率只有 34.9%，而对手的三分球命中率则高达 39.5%。即使这些数据恢复正常，勒布朗的正负值最多也只能达到中性，而这是他职业生涯中第一次，他的常规数据掩盖了他真正的场上影响力。
此外，勒布朗在 EPM 中仅排名第 54 位，主要是因为他现在明显是一名糟糕的防守者。湖人队勉强排在西部第六也于事无补，因为给他们两个全明星席位是没有道理的。最后，勒布朗的落选也受到了全明星阵容规则的限制，因为西部前场球员非常多，但有两个替补名额必须是后卫。如果没有这个标准，那么他比申京/杜兰特更有理由取代库里/哈登。
别误会我的意思：勒布朗在 40 岁时所做的一切令人难以置信，而且他仍然会因为纯粹的尊重而入选，但这是他自新秀赛季以来第一次，这位“国王”的竞技水平低于全明星级别。
荣誉提名
勒布朗·詹姆斯、德文·布克、卢卡·东契奇、达龙·福克斯和凯里·欧文。
点击查看原文：2025 NBA Western Conference All-Star picks: who deserves to make the 12-man team?
2025 NBA Western Conference All-Star picks: who deserves to make the 12-man team?
The All-Star game is less than a month away, so it’s time to select players for the Western Conference.
It’s the new year, and that means one thing: getting into arguments as to why their favorite player was snubbed as an All-Star.
Well, the good news is that you can start here! I’ll list the players who I believe are deserving of making the team, instead of picking who I think will make it. If this article gives you some inspiration, please remember that tomorrow (Monday the 20th) is the last day to vote for this year’s All-Stars, so it’s not too late to make Isaiah Collier feel good about his 41.4% true shooting percentage.
Jokes aside, let’s dive into the Western Conference All-Stars, and if you haven’t seen it yet, be sure to go check out the East.
Starters
Backcourt
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Arguably the front-runner for MVP, Shai has cemented himself as the best scorer in the league. The aura king is averaging 31.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 6 assists on 53.1/35.2/89.7 splits. He’s also taking a career-high 5.8 threes a game, making Shai an unstoppable offensive force capable of scoring from anywhere and at any time.
Anthony Edwards: The second backcourt spot was much harder to pick since no one quite stood out as a Luka normally would — if he played enough. I ultimately went with Ant because he’s logged by far the most minutes (1541) and is the only above-average defensive option compared to the guards who will be discussed later. He’s also putting up career highs in points (26.1), true shooting (58.6%), and on/off differential (+5.4). Oh, did I mention that he’s the only reliable offensive option on the team who doesn’t suffer from Randle-itis?
Frontcourt
Jaren Jackson Jr: JJJ deserves a lot more recognition for the season he’s having. With Ja’s lingering injury concerns, JJJ has undoubtedly been the best player on a Memphis team that’s currently the third seed in the West. The most dominant defensive force outside of Wemby, JJJ is also averaging the same amount of points (22.6) as last year but on much better efficiency (44.4% vs 49%). He’s also fouling a lot less than in years past and deserves to be in All-NBA conversations too.
Victor Wembanyama: Having just turned 21, Wemby is now a bonafide top-10 player knocking on the door of the top 5. He’s already delivered on the hype and then some by being the heavy favorite for DPOY: the Spurs are +4.2 (114.4 ORTG, 110.2 DRTG) with Wemby playing and an abysmal -11.9 when he sits (109.3 ORTG, 121.2 DRTG). Moreover, the French phenom is already one of the most offensively versatile big men ever, as he’s an all-time level lob threat while somehow shooting 35.3% from three on 9.1 attempts per game.
Nikola Jokic: The best player on the planet, Jokic somehow continues to get better. This year, he’s averaging career highs in points (30.4), assists (9.9), three-point attempts (4.5), and three-point percentage (47.1%). Somehow, Jokic’s on/off differential of +26.4 is also the highest of his career, which is astonishing (and concerning for Denver) given that he played multiple seasons without Jamal Murray and/or Michael Porter Jr. Simply put, we’re watching one of the 10 best basketball players ever in his prime, so don’t take it for granted.
Reserves
Backcourt
James Harden: Perhaps a controversial pick, Harden is absolutely deserving of being an All-Star this year. He’s been the offensive engine on a Clippers team built on defense, and LA is surprisingly the 5th seed in the West when many people expected them to be in the league’s basement. Harden’s shooting splits of 39.8/34.6/88.5 is rough, but his impact on the Clippers is undeniable: he has an on/off split of +6.3, and LA goes from being slightly below-average offensively with him playing (112.3, 42nd percentile) to downright anemic (108.2, 17th percentile) without him.
Steph Curry: Averaging “just” 23 points a game, Steph’s still beautiful star is starting to dull. Even so, he’s the only reason why the Warriors are even in the running for a play-in spot, given that Golden State doesn’t have another reliable scorer on the roster. Steph’s +12.1 on/off differential shows how crucial he is to the Warriors, and they go from being an elite offense with him playing (119.4, 85th percentile), to being by far the worst in the league (102.1, 3rd percentile) when he sits.
Frontcourt
Anthony Davis: After a hot start to the season, AD has since been inconsistent, much like the rest of the Lakers. Still, he’s a dominant two-way force who’s now the undisputed best player on the team, averaging 25.8 points and 11.9 rebounds on 59.9% true shooting. AD’s defense has experienced a concerning decline this season as opponents are shooting a (not) nice 69.3% within four feet of the basket, and the Lakers have a slightly better defensive rating without him this year. Even so, he’s the biggest reason why LA is the current 6th seed in the West, even if their positioning isn’t secure.
Domantas Sabonis: Now the 9th seed after a horrendous start, the Kangz’s turnaround has been led by Sabonis. He’s averaging career highs in points (20.6) and rebounds (14.1), but most importantly, Sabonis now demands attention from deep as he’s shooting 47.8%(!!!) from deep on 2.4 attempts per game. Even when that number inevitably drops, defenses now need to respect Sabonis from much farther out than before, and his on/off splits of +12.8 is one of the best in the league.
Jalen Williams: The second-best player on the West’s best team, JDub can do everything on the court. From playing center to guarding them, he might be the most versatile player in the entire league on both sides of the ball. Averaging 20.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists helps too, and JDub should be a popular first-time All-NBA selection by year-end as well.
Wildcards
Alperen Sengun: The best player on the West’s second-best team, Sengun deserves to be an All-Star despite his drop in percentages: after making 53.7% of his shots last year and 56.7% from two, those numbers have dropped to 49.1% and 51.8%, respectively, this season. However, he’s more than made up for it with improved defense, as the Rockets are better in their own end (-4.6 DRTG) for the first time in Sengun’s career. Individually, opponents are also shooting 4.7% worse within six feet of the basket with Sengun as the primary defender, so it’s not just team-driven. Improving to average in his weakest area rightfully helps Sengun make his first All-Star game.
Kevin Durant: Strangely, KD’s advanced metrics are down across the board (he’s just 41st in EPM), but his importance to the Suns is undeniable: Phoenix is 1-9 in games without the Slim Reaper. It’s also hard to ignore that KD’s still averaging 27.4 points on 52.1/37.3/82.2 splits and was an early-season MVP candidate.
Wait, where’s LeBron???
You didn’t think I’d omit LeBron without explaining, did you? Well, it’s quite simple: if you pick this year’s All-Stars as objectively as possible, the case for the King is dubious at best. Yes, the numbers he’s putting up are still insane (23.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 8.8 assists), but his actual on-court impact is lacking. For starters, the Lakers are actually -5.7 in LeBron’s minutes, and he has an on/off split of -13.5(!!!). A lot of that has to do with unlucky three-point shooting on both ends: the Lakers are making just 34.9% from deep while opponents are converting 39.5% on their attempts when he plays. Even when that normalizes, though, LeBron’s on/off figures would be neutral at best, and for the first time in his career, his counting stats belies his true on-court impact.
Moreover, LeBron ranks just 54th in EPM, mostly due to him being a markedly bad defender now. That the Lakers are hanging on to the 6th seed by a thread doesn’t help either, since it doesn’t make sense to reward them with two All-Stars. Lastly, LeBron was squeezed out by the format of the All-Star team, as the West is very deep in the frontcourt but two reserves need to be guards. Without that criteria, there’s a stronger argument for him to make it over Steph/Harden rather than Sengun/KD.
Don’t get me wrong: what LeBron’s doing at 40 is incredible and he’ll still make the team out of sheer respect, but for the first time since he was a rookie, the King is now playing at a sub-All-Star level.
Honorable mentions
LeBron James, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, De’Aaron Fox, and Kyrie Irving.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock