By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-01-10 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
自从一个多月前我们最后一次预测2025年旧金山NBA全明星赛的潜在阵容以来，情况发生了很大变化。
不幸的是，伤病让一些本应在追逐中心球馆亮相的球星缺席了比赛。如果不考虑2020-21赛季的推迟开赛，在过去的六年里，没有一名球员在1月份的比赛场次少于29场的情况下入选全明星。而唯一的例外是新奥尔良鹈鹕队前锋蔡恩·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson)在2023年被选为首发球员。在这段时间里，没有一名替补球员在1月底前缺席超过19场比赛的情况下入选。
这段历史无疑排除了奥兰多魔术队前锋弗朗茨·瓦格纳(Franz Wagner)的可能性，他在因腹斜肌拉伤缺席25场比赛之前，原本很有可能首次入选全明星。更棘手的问题是达拉斯独行侠队的球星卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)，他自新秀赛季以来每年都是全明星球员。东契奇目前只打了22场比赛，预计到本月底才能对他的小腿伤势进行重新评估。
如果东契奇没有被选为首发——他在周四最新公布的西部联盟后场球员投票中排名第三——他可能不会被选为替补，这将在阵容中创造一个空缺。
最后，周四公布的球迷投票结果显示，夏洛特黄蜂队的拉梅洛·鲍尔(LaMelo Ball)很有可能被选为首发球员。他在东部联盟后场球员的球迷投票中领先。考虑到鲍尔因伤缺席的时间（目前为止11场）以及夏洛特8胜27负的糟糕战绩，他入选全明星赛最稳妥的途径是成为首发球员。
虽然参加全明星迷你锦标赛的三支球队的阵容将由TNT《Inside the NBA》的主持人选出，但我们将根据球员的入选方式进行分析——每个联盟两名后场首发和三名前场首发，相同数量的替补球员和两名不分位置的外卡球员——同时指出哪些球员可能会错过。
让我们来看看我对全部24个席位的预测，其中包括超级巨星的稳固席位、一些首次入选的球员以及众多为最终外卡名额展开竞争的球员。
东部首发
后场：多诺万·米切尔(Donovan Mitchell)，克利夫兰骑士队
作为过去五个赛季的全明星球员，米切尔似乎肯定会首发，因为骑士队已经取得了联盟最佳战绩（32胜4负）。米切尔在球迷投票中排名第二，并且肯定会在媒体投票中名列前茅。
后场：拉梅洛·鲍尔，夏洛特黄蜂队
鲍尔的情况更有趣。他的机会将取决于他是否能获得媒体投票以及有多少后卫获得投票。NBA将所有没有获得媒体投票的球员视为与获得投票的球员并列排在下一个位置。例如，如果媒体投票全部投给了米切尔和杰伦·布伦森(Jalen Brunson)，那么鲍尔将排在第三位。在这种情况下，假设目前的球迷投票结果保持不变，鲍尔需要在球员投票中比布伦森低五位才能被挤出首发阵容。
相比之下，如果少数不同的后卫获得了媒体投票而鲍尔没有，那么布伦森凭借媒体投票超越他的可能性就更大了。对于布伦森来说，作为替补入选球队是板上钉钉的事，这种差异只是理论上的。而对于鲍尔来说，这是他第二次入选全明星的最佳机会。
前场：扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)，密尔沃基雄鹿队
到目前为止，阿德托昆博获得了所有球员中最多的球迷投票，他很有可能成为职业生涯中第四次担任队长。
前场：杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)，波士顿凯尔特人队
塔图姆也应该顺利获得首发位置，这将是他连续第三年被选为首发球员。
前场：卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)，纽约尼克斯队
布伦森和唐斯谁为纽约队贡献更大的赛季是一个有趣的争论，但考虑到东部后场和前场球员池的相对实力，唐斯更有可能成为首发球员。他在球迷投票中排名第三，他的票数是排名下一位的球员——魔术队的保罗·班凯罗(Paolo Banchero)的两倍多，后者在周五晚上预定回归阵容之前只打了五场比赛，今年并不是一个真正的全明星竞争者。
东部替补
后场：杰伦·布伦森，纽约尼克斯队
如果他没有被选为首发，布伦森大概会是东部联盟教练在替补席上写下的第一个名字。从那里开始，后卫位置的决定就变得更加复杂了。
后场：特雷·杨(Trae Young)，亚特兰大老鹰队
我之前版本的全明星阵容中没有杨，因为他赛季初的投篮状态低迷。杨的效率在12月和1月有所回升，老鹰队挺进NBA杯半决赛可能会吸引教练们的注意，他们更愿意奖励获胜的球队。再加上杨领跑联盟的场均12.2次助攻，我勉强把他放在一众后卫候选人的首位。
前场：杰伦·布朗(Jaylen Brown)，波士顿凯尔特人队
总决赛最有价值球员不会被选为首发，但他应该在东部前场替补席中名列前茅。
前场：埃文·莫布里(Evan Mobley)，克利夫兰骑士队
下一个几乎可以自动入选东部前场的球员是莫布里，他是NBA最佳球队的内线支柱。莫布里迈出了重要的一步，场均得分达到职业生涯最高的18.9分，同时提供了足够的拉开空间的能力（场均投进1.3个三分球，命中率40%），使克利夫兰庞大的首发前场阵容能够发挥作用。
前场：贾莱特·阿伦(Jarrett Allen)，克利夫兰骑士队
瓦格纳的受伤为阿伦第二次入选全明星打开了大门。虽然他在进攻端不如莫布里重要，但阿伦的垂直空间本身就很有价值。他的投篮命中率达到职业生涯最高的70%，并与莫布里一起锁定了防守端的禁区。教练们可能会考虑印第安纳步行者队的得分王帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆(Pascal Siakam)，但我怀疑他们会用第三个全明星席位来奖励骑士队。
外卡：达米安·利拉德(Damian Lillard)，密尔沃基雄鹿队
在过去七个赛季中，利拉德有六个赛季都是全明星球员——除了2021-22赛季，当时核心肌肉手术让他在29场比赛后赛季报销——这次他将不得不为此捏一把汗。最终，我认为利拉德的过往战绩和雄鹿队的NBA杯夺冠之旅将让他最终入选。他的进攻赛季比2023-24赛季更好，而且密尔沃基在战绩上仍然领先于大多数其他竞争这个席位的球队。
外卡：凯德·坎宁安(Cade Cunningham)，底特律活塞队
至少还有五名东部后卫可以为最后一个阵容名额提出有力的理由。加兰德在骑士队的开局中可以说是比阿伦更有价值，德里克·怀特场均得到职业生涯最高的17.1分，同时保持着他一贯出色的高阶数据，泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿(Tyrese Haliburton)和泰瑞斯·马克西(Tyrese Maxey)去年都在阵容中，而泰勒·希罗场均得到23.6分，效率比这个组里除了加兰德之外的任何人都要高。
我认为哈利伯顿的情况最被低估。作为去年的首发球员，他仍然被拿来与他2023-24赛季上半段的火热状态进行比较，结果略逊一筹。然而，哈利伯顿有几个统计因素对 er有利。他最大的优势，避免失误，在数据统计中往往是不可见的。（例如，他的场均失误比坎宁安少2.5次。）此外，哈利伯顿的出场时间比除了尼克斯队之外的任何人都多，这解释了为什么他在价值指标上处于或接近这个组的顶端。如果印第安纳队在教练投票时能够超过密尔沃基队，这可能会增加哈利伯顿的机会。
尽管如此，我还是把最后一个名额给了坎宁安，他是活塞队崛起的代表人物，在上赛季以联盟最差战绩结束之后，本赛季他们进入了东部前九。坎宁安在这个组中场均助攻领先（9.3次，联盟第三），并且作为一名三分射手，他的水平也得到了显著提高。无论坎宁安本赛季是否入选，他的未来肯定会有全明星的亮相。
西部首发
后场：谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
作为目前MVP的热门人选，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在西部后场球员的球迷投票中领先，并且应该在媒体投票中也轻松占据榜首。
后场：斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)，金州勇士队
东契奇的受伤意味着球迷投票应该会让库里在家乡球迷面前获得一个首发位置。他现在在投票中略微领先于东契奇，并且更有可能获得媒体投票。预计在媒体投票中排名第二的明尼苏达森林狼队的安东尼·爱德华兹(Anthony Edwards)在球迷投票中遥遥领先于第五名，可能需要弥补太多的差距才能成为首发。
前场：尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)，丹佛掘金队
尽管他对全明星庆祝活动普遍漠不关心，但如果他是队长，他就不能被最后一名选中。约基奇在西部所有球员的球迷投票中领先，并且仅次于塔图姆，排名第二。
前场：凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)，菲尼克斯太阳队
另外两个西部前场位置的竞争将更加激烈。杜兰特在与勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)的第二名之争中仅领先2000票（总票数接近200万），这取决于维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)在媒体投票中的表现。
前场：勒布朗·詹姆斯，洛杉矶湖人队
在西部前场球迷投票中排名第三，让詹姆斯自2004年以来首次面临无缘首发的风险，当时他19岁的新秀赛季没有入选全明星。文班在媒体投票中似乎很可能会领先于詹姆斯，这可能会将决定权交到球员手中。目前，我预测詹姆斯将成为第三位也是最后一位首发球员。
西部替补
后场：安东尼·爱德华兹，明尼苏达森林狼队
在经历了突破性的季后赛之旅后，爱德华兹目前正享受着他职业生涯中最好的进攻赛季，他可能会成为西部教练在后场选择中写下的第一个名字。
后场：凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)，达拉斯独行侠队
欧文的背伤，椎间盘突出，使他第一次作为独行侠球员入选全明星的希望蒙上了一层阴影。欧文到目前为止已经打了30场比赛，目前还不清楚他是否会在教练投票前复出。尽管如此，我认为欧文的强势开局——包括职业生涯最高的44%的三分球命中率——将使他进入阵容，凭借迄今为止更健康的状况领先于东契奇。
前场：维克多·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺队
文班是否被选为首发不会影响他入选球队的可能性。无论哪种方式，在他带领圣安东尼奥队进入西部附加赛的激烈竞争，并在本已出色的新秀赛季基础上更进一步之后，他都将迎来自己的第一个全明星赛，而这只是众多全明星赛的开始。
前场：安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)，洛杉矶湖人队
考虑到西部前场的拥挤程度，戴维斯在球迷投票中成为了落选者，排名第五。为了说明这个组的竞争有多么激烈，只有另外一名球员（阿尔佩伦·申京(Alperen Sengun)）的票数与戴维斯相差不到一百万。他显然是一个替补选择。
前场：小贾伦·杰克逊(Jaren Jackson Jr.)，孟菲斯灰熊队
教练们肯定想用一个全明星席位来奖励积分榜排名联盟第四的孟菲斯队，而贾·莫兰特(Ja Morant)因伤缺席的时间意味着杰克逊现在是灰熊队中明确的选择。杰克逊在2023年被选为全明星替补后，他的得分有所提高，尽管他无法复制他获得年度最佳防守球员的赛季表现。
外卡：阿尔佩伦·申京，休斯顿火箭队
与灰熊队一样，火箭队的表现也足够好，教练们可能会觉得有义务选择一名休斯顿球员作为全明星替补。作为球队的篮板王、得分第二和助攻第二，申京是最合乎逻辑的候选人，这将是他的全明星首秀。
外卡：杰伦·威廉姆斯(Jalen Williams)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
在上次更新中，我把菲尼克斯太阳队的德文·布克(Devin Booker)放在了这个位置。从那以后，布克缺席了五场比赛，太阳队在西部排名下滑到第12位。另一位顶级后卫候选人，萨克拉门托国王队的达龙·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)，所在的球队并列第10，在迈克·布朗(Mike Brown)被解雇后，他似乎不太可能得到教练们的青睐。
这使得威廉姆斯成为最后一个席位的明确且当之无愧的选择。随着切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)的缺席，威廉姆斯一直是西部顶级球队中无可争议的二号球员，在雷霆队中得分和助攻排名第二，同时可以防守多个位置。
点击查看原文：NBA All-Star Game - LeBron, Steph, KD among 24 projected picks
NBA All-Star Game - LeBron, Steph, KD among 24 projected picks
Much has changed since we last checked in on potential rosters for the 2025 NBA All-Star Game in San Francisco a little more than a month ago.
Unfortunately, injuries have taken some stars who should be in action at the Chase Center out of the mix. Not counting the delayed start to the 2020-21 season, over the past six years no player has been chosen an All-Star with fewer than 29 games played through the month of January. And that one exception, New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson in 2023, was voted a starter. No reserve has made it in that span while missing more than 19 of his team’s games through the end of January.
That history surely rules out Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner, who was a likely first-time All-Star before an oblique strain sidelined him with 25 games played. The tougher question is Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic, an All-Star every year since his rookie campaign. Doncic is currently at 22 games and isn’t expected to be reevaluated for a calf injury until the end of the month.
If Doncic isn’t voted a starter – he was third among Western Conference backcourt players in Thursday’s most recent returns – he’s probably not going to be chosen as a reserve, creating an opening on the roster.
Lastly, fan voting returns from Thursday suggest that LaMelo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets has a strong chance to be voted as a starter. He leads all East backcourt players in fan voting. Given Ball’s time missed to injury (11 games so far) and Charlotte’s lowly 8-27 record, his safest path to the All-Star Game is as a starter.
Though the rosters for the three teams participating in an All-Star mini tournament will be drafted by the hosts of TNT’s “Inside the NBA,” we break things down in accordance with how the player pool is chosen – two backcourt starters and three in the frontcourt by conference, with the same number of reserves and two wild-card selections regardless of position – while noting which players might be missing out.
Let’s get to my predictions for all 24 spots, featuring superstar locks, a few first-timers and plenty of competition for the final wild cards.
East starters
Backcourt: Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
An All-Star each of the past five seasons, Mitchell seems certain to start as the Cavaliers have raced to the NBA’s best record (32-4). Mitchell is second in fan voting and will surely be among the top media picks.
Backcourt: LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
Ball’s case is more interesting. His chances will depend on whether he gets any media votes and how many total guards get votes. The NBA treats all players who don’t get media votes as finishing tied for the next spot after the players who do get them. If, for example, the media votes go exclusively to Mitchell and Jalen Brunson, that would put Ball third. In that scenario, assuming current fan voting holds, Ball would need to finish five spots below Brunson in player voting to get pushed out of the starting lineup.
By contrast, if a handful of different guards get votes from the media and Ball does not, it becomes more reasonable for Brunson to leap him thanks to media voting. For Brunson, a lock to make the team as a reserve, this difference is academic. In Ball’s case, it represents easily his best chance of being an All-Star for the second time.
Frontcourt: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
With the most fan votes of any player thus far, Antetokounmpo is well on his way to being a team captain for the fourth time in his career.
Frontcourt: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Tatum also should sail to a starting spot, the third consecutive year he’ll be voted a starter.
Frontcourt: Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Whether Brunson or Towns is having the better season for New York is an interesting debate, but given the relative strength of the East’s backcourt and frontcourt pools, Towns is the far more likely starter. Sitting third in fan voting, he has more than doubled the total of the next-highest player – the Magic’s Paolo Banchero, who has played just five games before his scheduled return to the lineup Friday night and is not a legitimate All-Star contender this year.
East reserves
Backcourt: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
If he’s not voted a starter, Brunson will presumably be the first name Eastern Conference coaches write in for the reserve pool. The decision at guard gets much more complicated from there.
Backcourt: Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
I left Young off my first version of All-Star teams because of his slow shooting start. Young’s efficiency has picked up in December and January, and the Hawks’ run to the NBA Cup semifinals will probably appeal to coaches, who prefer to reward winning teams. Add in Young’s league-leading 12.2 assists per game and I’d narrowly put him at the top of a deep group of guard candidates.
Frontcourt: Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
The Finals MVP isn’t in line to be voted a starter, but he belongs at the top of the East reserve pool in the frontcourt.
Frontcourt: Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
The next near-automatic selection in the East frontcourt is Mobley, the interior anchor for the NBA’s best team. Mobley has taken an important step forward, averaging a career-high 18.9 PPG while providing enough floor spacing (a career-high 1.3 3s per game at a 40% clip) to make Cleveland’s gigantic starting frontcourt work.
Frontcourt: Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers
Wagner’s injury opens the door for Allen to make his second All-Star appearance. Although he’s not as important offensively as Mobley, Allen’s vertical spacing is valuable in its own right. He’s shooting a career-high 70% from the field and combines with Mobley to lock down the paint on defense. Coaches might consider Pascal Siakam, who leads the Indiana Pacers in scoring, but I suspect they’ll reward the Cavaliers with a third All-Star.
Wild card: Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks
An All-Star in six of the past seven seasons – all but 2021-22, when core muscle surgery ended his season after 29 games – Lillard will have to sweat it out this time around. Ultimately, I think Lillard’s track record and the Bucks’ NBA Cup title run will see him through. He’s having a better offensive season than 2023-24, and Milwaukee is still ahead of most of the other contenders for this spot in the standings.
Wild card: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
There are at least five other East guards who can make a credible case for the last spot on the roster. Garland has arguably been more valuable than Allen in Cleveland’s start, Derrick White is averaging a career-high 17.1 PPG with his typical outstanding advanced stats, both Tyrese Haliburton and Tyrese Maxey were on the roster a year ago, and Tyler Herro is averaging 23.6 PPG with better efficiency than anyone in this group but Garland.
I think Haliburton has the most underrated case. A starter a year ago, he’s still being compared to his red-hot first half of 2023-24 and coming up short. Yet Haliburton has a couple of statistical factors in his favor. His best strength, avoiding turnovers, tends to be invisible in the box score. (He’s averaging 2.5 fewer than Cunningham, for example.) Additionally, Haliburton has played more minutes than anyone not on the Knicks, explaining why he’s at or near the top of this group in value metrics. If Indiana can climb ahead of Milwaukee by the time the coaches vote, it might bolster Haliburton’s chances.
Still, I’m giving the last spot to Cunningham, the face of the Pistons’ rise into the East’s top nine after finishing with the NBA’s worst record last season. Cunningham leads this group in assists per game (9.3, third in the league) and has improved dramatically as a 3-point shooter. Whether Cunningham makes it this season or not, there are surely All-Star appearances in his future.
West starters
Backcourt: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
The current betting favorite for MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander is leading West backcourt players in fan voting and should cruise to the top spot among the media as well.
Backcourt: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Doncic’s injury means fan voting should lift Curry to a starting spot in front of home fans in the Bay. He holds a narrow lead over Doncic right now and is more likely to get media votes. The expected second finisher in media voting, Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves, is a distant fifth in fan voting and probably has too much ground to make up to be a starter.
Frontcourt: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Despite his general indifference to All-Star festivities, Jokic can’t be picked last if he’s a team captain. Jokic leads all West players in fan voting and is just ahead of Tatum for second overall.
Frontcourt: Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
The other two West frontcourt spots will get more interesting. Durant holds a lead of barely 2,000 votes (out of nearly 2 million apiece) over LeBron James for the second spot, which could be relevant depending how well Victor Wembanyama does in media voting.
Frontcourt: LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
Ranking third in the West frontcourt in fan voting leaves James somewhat vulnerable to being left out of the starters for the first time since 2004, when he was not chosen an All-Star as a 19-year-old rookie. Wembanyama seems likely to finish ahead of James in media voting, which could leave the decision in the hands of players. For now, I’m projecting James to be the third and final starter.
West reserves
Backcourt: Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Currently enjoying the best offensive season of his career after a breakout playoff run, Edwards will probably be the first name West coaches write in for their backcourt picks.
Backcourt: Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks
Irving’s back injury, a bulging disk, puts his first All-Star appearance with Dallas in some jeopardy. Irving has played 30 games thus far, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be back by the time coaches vote. Still, I think Irving’s strong start – including a career-high 44% on 3s – will put him on the roster, ahead of Doncic by virtue of better health thus far.
Frontcourt: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Whether Wembanyama is voted a starter won’t affect his chances of making the team. Either way, he’s headed for his first of many All-Star Games after leading San Antonio into the thick of the West play-in race by taking a step forward from an already terrific rookie campaign.
Frontcourt: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
Given the crowd in the West frontcourt, Davis has been the odd man out in fan voting, ranking fifth. As an illustration of how top-heavy the group is, only one other player (Alperen Sengun) is within a million votes of Davis. He’s an obvious reserve choice.
Frontcourt: Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
Coaches will surely want to reward a Memphis team that has the NBA’s fourth-best point differential with an All-Star, and the time Ja Morant has missed due to injury means Jackson is now the clear choice from the Grizzlies. Jackson has boosted his scoring from when he was chosen an All-Star reserve in 2023, though he’s not on track to repeat his Defensive Player of the Year campaign.
Wild card: Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
Like the Grizzlies, the Rockets have played well enough that coaches might feel obligated to pick a Houston player as an All-Star reserve. As the team’s leading rebounder and second-leading scorer and distributor, Sengun is the most logical candidate for what would be his All-Star debut.
Wild card: Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
During the last update, I had Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns in this spot. Since then, Booker has missed five games and the Suns have sunk to 12th in the West standings. The other top guard candidate, De’Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings, is on a team tied for 10th and seems unlikely to get the benefit of the doubt from coaches after Mike Brown was fired.
That leaves Williams as the clear and deserving choice for the last spot. With Chet Holmgren sidelined, Williams has been the unquestioned No. 2 player on the West’s top team, ranking second on the Thunder in scoring and assists while defending multiple positions.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN