By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-12-10 03:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
随着勒布朗统治的慢慢终结，另一位王者将取而代之。
在篮球界，每一代都有一个标志性球员。
迈克尔·乔丹(Michael Jordan)是八九十年代球迷心中的那个身影，而勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)在过去二十年里接过了这一衣钵。
现在，一个新的天才已经崛起，准备接替国王的位置。
维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)兑现了人们的期望，甚至做得更好。这位法国天才正在球场上做着前所未见的事情，毫不夸张地说，只要保持健康，他很可能成为史上最佳球员之一。
不过，在我们谈到这些之前，让我们先来分析一下湖人队的困境，以及勒布朗还能剩下多少能量。
詹姆斯国王的时代结束了吗？
勒布朗职业生涯中第一次看起来如此凡人。现在我既然这么说了，他很可能会进入他的第六个巅峰期，继续证明我们错了。
说真的，这似乎与之前勒布朗看似退步的时候有所不同。几周后他就快40岁了（！！！），而且明显比去年慢了，数据也支持这一点。
在进攻端，勒布朗只有40%的投篮出手来自篮下四英尺以内——这是过去十年来的第二低百分比。勒布朗在篮下的命中率为68%，这也是他整个职业生涯的第二低，也是自2006年以来的最差。换句话说，勒布朗不再拥有他曾经拥有的耐力和爆发力，他现在放弃了明显的突破机会，转而选择命中率更低的投篮。
例如，他本可以利用朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle)糟糕的防守，直接冲向篮筐，尤其是在鲁迪·戈贝尔(Rudy Gobert)防守外线的情况下。然而，勒布朗却选择投三分，这是他连续错失的19个三分球之一——这也表明他现在投篮时跳跃高度不高了。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月9日
令人惊讶的是，湖人队今年的挣扎很大程度上与勒布朗的出场有关。当他在场时，湖人队的净效率值竟然为-7.8（进攻效率112，防守效率119.8），即使当他和安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)一起在场时，湖人队仍然是-6.4（进攻效率114，防守效率120.4）。最糟糕的是，当勒布朗下场时，湖人队的净效率值高达+11.1（进攻效率123.3，防守效率112.2）！
当然，在场/不在场数据并不能说明全部问题。它无法解释球员对手的质量或不可持续的投篮迹象：当詹姆斯国王在场时，对手的三分命中率高达40.2%，而当他不在场时，对手的三分命中率仅为29.5%。
尽管如此，我仍然怀疑即使这些数字恢复正常，湖人队在勒布朗的带领下能否取得正的净效率值。很明显，他不能像以前那样扛起进攻的大旗，而湖人队也没有很多优秀的射手或组织者能够可靠地承担起这一重任。
在防守端，情况更加糟糕。本赛季，勒布朗已经表明他在防守端没有任何剩余的能量可以使用，而且这种情况已经蔓延到球队的其他球员身上。
他们的防守问题始于沟通不畅。下面的第一个回合就是一个例子，湖人队应该在戴维斯控制住突破后就开始轮转防守。相反，这个回合以迈阿密队的一个空位三分结束，考虑到场上唯一高于平均水平的防守者是戴维斯，这并不奇怪。第二个回合则纯粹是缺乏努力。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月7日
接下来的片段完整地概括了湖人队的防守问题。首先，道尔顿·克内希特(Dalton Knecht)和德安吉洛·拉塞尔(D’Angelo Russell)沟通失误，同时跑去防守巴姆·阿德巴约(Bam Adebayo)，而勒布朗即使在注意到防守漏洞后也没有试图阻止吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)的突破。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月9日
简而言之，勒布朗无法在攻防两端带领球队，这将导致湖人队继续保持平庸。即便如此，他在将近40岁的时候仍然是一个全明星级别的球员，这一点非常了不起，无论球迷支持哪个球队，都不应该把他视为理所当然。
这位篮球史上最伟大的球员之一的职业生涯即将走到尽头，我们需要珍惜他剩下的每一秒钟。
外星人降临
20年前，勒布朗度过了他职业生涯最伟大的第二个赛季之一，现在维克托·文班亚马也在做同样的事情。
随着一位国王的陨落，另一位王者将取而代之。
没有足够的词汇来形容像文班这样的外星生物，他的成长速度如此之快，以至于很难想象他巅峰时期会是什么样子。
想想看：马刺队上赛季在文班出场时，防守效率高出9.0分（出场时112.8，下场时121.8），而这个数字在本赛季竟然提高到了11.2（出场时110.6，下场时121.8）。换句话说，圣安东尼奥目前在文班在场时拥有联盟前十的防守，而当他下场时，球队的防守效率则跌至联盟倒数第二。
不出所料，护筐是他最大的优势。当文班防守时，对手在篮下六英尺内的命中率仅为47.4%——在本赛季所有至少有100次这样防守的球员中排名第二。更重要的是，这47.4%的命中率比对手的预期命中率低16%，也排名第二。（只有切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)在这两项数据上都更好，但他的样本量要小得多。）
哦，我还没提到最可怕的部分：即使文班已经是联盟中无可争议的最佳防守球员，他仍有很大的成长空间。
具体来说，这位法国天才经常过于热情，冒险抢断。看看下面的两个片段，他糟糕地挥击球，让对方球员轻松突破到篮下。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月7日
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月7日
然而，就像异形一样，无论情况如何，文班都拒绝放弃，并恢复过来完成了两次不可思议的盖帽。与其他一些大个子不同，他也可以防守快速的侧翼球员，因为他的身高臂展和敏捷性让他即使被过掉也能完成有效的干扰。文班是一个真正的防守独角兽，可以换防1到5号位，随着时间的推移和经验的积累，他可以通过改进决策能力变得更好。
不过，所有这些都不令人惊讶，不像他的进攻比赛。
本赛季到目前为止，文班每36分钟的三分出手次数排名第13位（10.2次），命中率为33.7%，但在经历了赛季初的低迷之后，他在过去9场比赛中的三分命中率已经上升到40.5%。人们对他喜欢在进攻时间还剩很多时就在logo位置出手三分球的倾向有很多批评，我也理解这种沮丧——但如果这意味着他的投篮会进步，而这个拉梅洛·鲍尔(LaMelo Ball)式的阶段只是暂时的副作用，那么我完全支持。
在三分线内，文班并没有太多背身单打的技巧，但他也不需要。凭借他独特的身高、速度和技术的结合，他可以随意突破到篮下，如果他在移动中接到球，那就是“烤鸡”盛宴了。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月7日
传球是文班另一个取得了显著进步的领域。他现在阅读比赛的速度要快得多，最令人兴奋的进展是他能够即兴传球。
看看下面的片段。看起来他最初想把球传给巴恩西·巴恩斯(Barnsy Barnes)，但由于防守的收缩，他选择传球给斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月7日
之后，他又一次将球传到了外线，这次是传给了德文·瓦塞尔(Devin Vassell)。我不确定考虑到文班拥有错位优势，这是否是正确的决定，但这无关紧要：重要的是他拥有传出这种球的视野和能力，因为它给了进攻更多的选择。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月7日
总而言之，文班如此迅速地成长为联盟前十的球员是可怕的，因为他还有很大的成长空间。他已经是一个精英级别的防守者，同时也是一个在篮筐附近极具破坏力的进攻存在，我甚至还没有提到他成为一名致命射手的潜力。
只要他保持健康并改进一些决策能力，维克托·文班亚马将成为有史以来最伟大的十位篮球运动员之一。
本周，请查看 Marilyn 对赛季前四分之一的观察！她出色地总结了迄今为止的重要发展，看看未来哪些会改变，哪些不会改变，将会很有趣。
感谢阅读！
所有统计数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: Fall of the King and rise of the Alien
Around the NBA: Fall of the King and rise of the Alien
As LeBron’s reign slowly ends, another king will take his place.
In basketball, every generation has a defining player.
Michael Jordan was that figure for those who followed the game in the 80s and 90s, while LeBron has taken that mantle over the past two decades.
And now, a new talent has risen to take the King’s place.
Victor Wembanyama has delivered on the hype, and then some. The French phenom is doing things that has never been seen on a basketball court, and it’s not an exaggeration to say that he’ll likely go down as one of the best to ever do it, health permitting.
Before we get there, though, let’s first analyze the Lakers’ struggles, and how much LeBron still has left in the tank.
King James no more?
For the first time in his career, LeBron looks mortal. And now that I’ve said that, he’s going to enter his sixth prime and continue to prove us wrong.
In all seriousness, this seems different than previous times when LeBron appeared to have lost a step. He’s about to turn 40(!!!) in a few weeks and is noticeably slower than he was last year, and the stats back it up.
Offensively, just 40% of LeBron’s field goal attempts have come within four feet of the basket — the second-lowest percentage over the last decade. LeBron’s 68% conversion rate at the rim is also the second-lowest of his entire career and his worst since 2006. In other words, LeBron just doesn’t have the same stamina or explosiveness that he used to possess, and he’s now passing up obvious driving opportunities in exchange for lower percentage shots.
For instance, he could’ve taken advantage of Julius Randle’s poor closeout below by going straight to the rim, especially with Rudy Gobert guarding the perimeter. Instead, LeBron decided to attempt a three, and that was one of the 19 he missed in a row — also a sign that he doesn’t get much lift on his shots now.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 9, 2024
Astonishingly, LA’s struggles this year have largely come with LeBron playing. With him on the court, the Lakers have a shocking -7.8 net rating (112 offensive rating, 119.8 defensive), and LA is still -6.4 (114 ORTG, 120.4 DRTG) even when he’s paired with Anthony Davis. Worst of all, the Lakers are +11.1 (123.3 ORTG, 112.2 DRTG) when LeBron sits!
Of course, on/off numbers don’t tell the entire story. It can’t account for the quality of a player’s opponents or signs of unsustainable shooting: opponents are making an absurd 40.2% of their threes when King James is on, and just 29.5% when he’s off.
Still, I question whether the Lakers can be a positive with LeBron even when those numbers normalize. It’s evident that he can no longer carry an offense like before, and LA doesn’t have many good shooters or creators who can reliably shoulder that burden, either.
Defensively, things are even more dire. This season, LeBron has shown that he doesn’t have any energy left to use in his own end, and that’s seeped into the rest of the team.
Their struggles start with poor communication. The first possession below is an example, as LA should’ve begun rotating as soon as AD contained the drive. Instead, the play ends with a wide-open three from Miami, which isn’t surprising considering that the only above-average defender on the court was AD. Afterwards, the second possession is simply a lack of effort.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 7, 2024
This next clip fully encapsulates the Lakers’ defensive issues. First, Dalton Knecht and D’Angelo Russell miscommunicate by running to Bam Adebayo simultaneously, while LeBron doesn’t even try to stop Jimmy Butler’s drive even after noticing the breakdown.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 9, 2024
Simply put, LeBron’s inability to carry the team on either side of the floor will result in the Lakers remaining mediocre. Even so, it’s remarkable that he’s still very much an All-Star calibre player at almost 40 years old, and fans shouldn’t take him for granted regardless of their rooting interests.
The end is nigh for one of the game’s greatest players, and we need to appreciate every second of it while it lasts.
Aliens walk among us
LeBron had one of the greatest sophomore seasons ever 20 years ago, and now Victor Wembanyama is doing the same.
As one king falls, another will take his place.
There aren’t enough words to describe an extraterrestrial being like Wemby, whose growth has been so rapid that it’s hard to fathom what he’ll look like at his peak.
Consider this: the Spurs were +9.0 points better defensively with Wemby playing last year (112.8 on, 121.8 off), and that mark has somehow increased to +11.2 this season (110.6 on, 121.8 off). In other words, San Antonio currently boasts a top-10 defense with Wemby on the court, which becomes the league’s second-worst when he sits.
Unsurprisingly, rim protection is his greatest asset. Opponents are shooting just 47.4% within six feet of the basket with Wemby defending — the second-best mark in the league amongst every player who’s contested at least 100 such shots this year. More importantly, that 47.4% mark is 16% lower than what opponents are expected to make, which also ranks second. (Only Chet Holmgren is better in both stats, but he did that with a much smaller sample size)
Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned the scariest part yet: Wemby still has plenty of room for growth, even though he’s already the undisputed best defender in the league.
Specifically, the French phenom is often overzealous and gambles for steals. Take a look at the two clips below, where he makes ill-timed swipes at the ball, letting the opposing player drive to the rim.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 7, 2024
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 7, 2024
However, much like a xenomorph, Wemby refuses to be left for dead regardless of the situation and recovers to make two incredible blocks. Unlike some other bigs, he can also guard quick perimeter players, as his length and agility allow him to make a good contest even if he’s been blown by. Wemby is truly a defensive unicorn who can switch 1-5, and with time and experience, he could get even better by improving his decision-making.
None of that is surprising, though, unlike his offensive game.
So far this season, Wemby is 13th in threes attempted per 36 minutes (10.2) while making 33.7% of those shots, but he’s up to 40.5% in his past nine games after a slow start. There’s been much scrutiny over his propensity to jack threes from the logo at the beginning of the shot clock, and I share that frustration — but if it means that he’ll improve as a shooter and this LaMelo Ball phase is a temporary side effect of that, then I’m all for it.
Inside the arc, Wemby doesn’t have much of a post-up/back-to-the-basket game, but he doesn’t need to. He can get to the rim at will due to his unique combination of size, speed, and skill, and it’s BBQ chicken if he gets the ball on the move.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 7, 2024
Passing is another area in which Wemby has improved substantially. He now makes reads at a much faster rate, and the most exciting development is that he’s able to improvise passes on the fly.
Take a look at the clip below. It seems like he initially wanted to drop the ball down to Barnesy Barnes, but chose instead to kick out to Stephon Castle due to the defense collapsing.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 7, 2024
Later, he whipped another pass out to the perimeter, this time to Devin Vassell. I’m not sure if this was the right decision given that Wemby had a mismatch, but that’s beside the point: the fact that he has the vision and ability to make such passes is what’s important because it gives the offense more ways to attack.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 7, 2024
In all, Wemby developing into a top-10 player this fast is terrifying due to how much room for growth he still has. He’s already an elite defense unto himself while also being a devastating offensive presence around the rim, and I haven’t even mentioned the potential of him becoming a lethal shooter, too.
As long as he stays healthy and improves some of his decision-making, Victor Wembanyama will go down as one of the 10 best basketball players to ever grace the hardwood.
This week, please check out Marilyn’s observations from the first quarter of the season! She does a great job of summarizing the important developments so far, and it’ll be interesting to see what does/doesn’t change moving forward.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock