2024-12-05 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
NBA 赛季才刚刚过去两个月，但现在展望五月份的选秀抽签并不算早。
那些争夺高顺位以选中顶级新秀库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)、迪伦·哈珀(Dylan Harper) 和艾斯·贝利(Ace Bailey) 的球队，要么正处于重建中期，要么受到伤病影响，要么在赛季第一阶段表现不佳。
刚刚结束东部决赛之旅的印第安纳步行者队，是早期潜在的乐透球队。费城 76 人队也是如此，他们在休赛期签下了自由球员侧翼保罗·乔治(Paul George)，却发现自己以 5 胜 15 负的战绩处于东部垫底。费城目前正仰望着底特律活塞队、多伦多猛龙队和夏洛特黄蜂队等重建球队，这些球队预计都将在六月的选秀中获得高顺位签。
西部联盟一如既往地竞争激烈，但有三支球队——重建中的犹他爵士队和波特兰开拓者队，以及饱受伤病困扰的新奥尔良鹈鹕队——目前在获得状元签的竞争中处于领先地位。
在 ESPN 篮球实力指数 (BPI) 的预测指导下，NBA 内部人士蒂姆·邦坦普斯(Tim Bontemps)、贾马尔·科利尔(Jamal Collier)、克里斯·赫林(Chris Herring)、鲍比·马克斯(Bobby Marks)、蒂姆·麦克马洪(Tim MacMahon) 和迈克尔·C·莱特(Michael C. Wright) 分析了八支预计的乐透球队的现状以及本赛季剩余时间最重要的因素。选秀专家乔纳森·吉沃尼(Jonathan Givony) 和杰里米·伍(Jeremy Woo) 随后分析了状元秀的候选人——以弗拉格为首——以及围绕备受期待的 2025 届新秀的最新动态。
跳转到章节：
垫底 8 强：预测、展望
我们正在关注的交易选秀权
适合弗拉格的球队，以及其他状元秀竞争者
预计的乐透球队
- 华盛顿奇才队 (2-17)
获得状元签的概率： 14.0%
获得前五顺位签的概率： 93.9%
奇才队为何会如此
奇才队已经完全接受了重建。从 2023 年将布拉德利·比尔交易到菲尼克斯太阳队开始，奇才队篮球运营总裁迈克尔·温格(Michael Winger) 已经进行了 11 笔交易，获得了两个首轮签、12 个次轮签以及与太阳队四年的选秀权互换。其中一笔交易中，华盛顿将德尼·阿夫迪亚(Deni Avdija) 交易到波特兰，换来了 14 号签（后卫巴布·卡灵顿(Bub Carrington) 的选秀权）、老将马尔科姆·布罗格登(Malcolm Brogdon) 以及波特兰、波士顿和密尔沃基之间第二好的 2029 年首轮签。奇才队的阵容在 2 月 6 日交易截止日期之后可能会大不相同，因为华盛顿可以使用布罗格登、马文·巴格利三世(Marvin Bagley III) 和老将约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯(Jonas Valanciunas) 的到期合同进行交易。 – 马克斯
我们在 2024-25 赛季剩余时间里关注的是
11 月份 0 胜 14 负的战绩使奇才队在联盟战绩最差的竞争中处于领先地位。在此过程中，他们也会继续给年轻球员比拉尔·库利巴利(Bilal Coulibaly)、亚历克斯·萨尔(Alex Sarr) 和卡灵顿大量的上场时间，因为他们希望在 2025 年的选秀中再获得一名有影响力的球员。 – 邦坦普斯
- 犹他爵士队 (4-17)
获得状元签的概率： 13.8%
获得前五顺位签的概率： 80.8%
爵士队为何会如此
犹他队在西部的衰落可以追溯到 2022 年休赛期，当时球队放弃了季后赛的争夺，选择交易首发球员多诺万·米切尔(Donovan Mitchell)、鲁迪·戈贝尔(Rudy Gobert)、博扬·博格达诺维奇(Bojan Bogdanovic) 和罗伊斯·奥尼尔(Royce O’Neale)。特别是米切尔和戈贝尔的交易，换回了七个首轮签（包括六个无保护的首轮签）。然而，这些选秀权中只有一个已经兑现：2023 年的后卫基翁特·乔治(Keyonte George)。 – 马克斯
我们在 2024-25 赛季剩余时间里关注的是
球员发展是爵士队的首要任务，这不仅仅是争取在人才济济的选秀中获得高顺位的委婉说法。犹他拥有联盟中最年轻的阵容，有八名 24 岁以下的球员，并且正在利用这个赛季来评估这些球员。爵士队预计也会活跃于交易市场，约翰·科林斯(John Collins)、乔丹·克拉克森(Jordan Clarkson) 和科林·塞克斯顿(Collin Sexton) 等老将都可以通过合适的交易获得。 – 麦克马洪
- 夏洛特黄蜂队 (6-15)
获得状元签的概率： 11.8%
获得前五顺位签的概率： 54.5%
黄蜂队为何会如此
在总经理杰夫·彼得森(Jeff Peterson) 于 5 月上任之前，里克·施纳尔(Rick Schnall) 领导的黄蜂队新老板在 2024 年 2 月的交易截止日期前采取了积极主动的策略。夏洛特没有继续持有老将特里·罗齐尔(Terry Rozier)、戈登·海沃德(Gordon Hayward) 和 P.J. 华盛顿(PJ Washington)，而是将这三名球员交易，换来了两个未来的首轮签和两个次轮签。在彼得森接任后，他们又获得了六个次轮签。 – 马克斯
我们在 2024-25 赛季剩余时间里关注的是
最重要的是，球队的伤病情况。黄蜂队一直很有竞争力，打了联盟最高的 13 场关键比赛（定义为比赛最后五分钟或加时赛中分差在五分以内）。考虑到轮换阵容中有多少人受伤，这令人印象深刻。球星后卫拉梅洛·鲍尔(LaMelo Ball)，在过去两个赛季的大部分时间里都缺席了比赛，由于小腿拉伤，他至少还会缺席接下来的两周。正处于职业生涯巅峰期的特雷·曼(Tre Mann) 一直受到背部椎间盘问题的困扰，将在两周后重新评估。前锋格兰特·威廉姆斯(Grant Williams) 在前交叉韧带和半月板撕裂后将缺席本赛季剩余的比赛。22 岁的潜力中锋马克·威廉姆斯(Mark Williams) 在周二晚上对阵费城的比赛中完成了本赛季的首秀。 – 赫林
- 新奥尔良鹈鹕队 (4-18)
获得状元签的概率： 11.1%
获得前五顺位签的概率： 50.2%
鹈鹕队为何会如此
总经理大卫·格里芬(David Griffin) 建立了一支才华横溢的球队，但大量的伤病——尤其是锡安·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson) 的伤病——导致了球队的慢热开局，包括目前的九连败，在新奥尔良可能无法在竞争激烈的西部联盟中恢复过来。好消息是新奥尔良在未来七年都控制着自己的首轮签。 – 莱特
我们在 2024-25 赛季剩余时间里关注的是
从未缴纳过奢侈税的鹈鹕队，目前高出奢侈税线 140 万美元，这意味着很有可能即将进行一笔小交易以降低薪资。未知的是布兰登·英格拉姆(Brandon Ingram) 的未来，他将在休赛期成为自由球员。自 7 月以来，英格拉姆有资格与鹈鹕队签署一份四年 2.08 亿美元的续约合同，但双方仍处于僵局。本周早些时候，他更换了经纪人，与里奇·保罗(Rich Paul) 领导的 Klutch 体育集团签约。 – 马克斯
- 底特律活塞队 (9-15)
获得状元签的概率： 9.4%
获得前五顺位签的概率： 41.0%
活塞队为何会如此
抽签运气不好。活塞队在过去三个赛季总共赢了 54 场比赛，但每年都只获得了五号签。虽然奥萨尔·汤普森(Ausar Thompson) 和罗恩·霍兰德二世(Ron Holland II) 可能会发展成为首发球员，但他们都没有展现出全明星的潜力。（你能想象维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama) 和保罗·班凯罗(Paolo Banchero) 加入前状元秀凯德·坎宁安(Cade Cunningham) 的行列吗？） – 马克斯
我们在 2024-25 赛季剩余时间里关注的是
活塞队能否保持赛季初的成功并避开乐透区？底特律已经取得了本赛季的第九场胜利，而上赛季直到二月份才达到这个数字。底特律希望以坎宁安和杰登·艾维(Jaden Ivey) 的出色开局为首的年轻球员组合能够与托比亚斯·哈里斯(Tobias Harris) 等老将互补，帮助球队积累胜利，并冲击季后赛。 – 科利尔
- 多伦多猛龙队 (7-15)
获得状元签的概率： 8.8%
获得前五顺位签的概率： 38.2%
猛龙队为何会如此
他们厌倦了不上不下的状态。这一切始于猛龙队在 2023-24 赛季中期三周内将奥杰·阿努诺比(OG Anunoby) 交易到纽约，并将帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆(Pascal Siakam) 交易到印第安纳。然后猛龙队将老将丹尼斯·施罗德(Dennis Schroder) 换成了斯宾塞·丁威迪(Spencer Dinwiddie) 的到期合同。这支球队已经致力于培养年轻核心，并在休赛期与伊曼纽尔·奎克利(Immanuel Quickley) 和斯科蒂·巴恩斯(Scottie Barnes) 签下了总价值 3.9 亿美元的合同。奎克利在 11 月初肘部 UCL 部分撕裂，今年只打了三场比赛。 – 马克斯
我们在 2024-25 赛季剩余时间里关注的是
如果多伦多能让主力球员上场，他们有机会脱离这个区间。（周日是巴恩斯本赛季打的第 10 场比赛。）尽管如此，这支球队显然希望再获得一个高顺位签，并且随着赛季的进行，他们将继续让年轻球员上场，比如后卫格雷迪·迪克(Gradey Dick) 和雅各布·沃尔特(Ja’Kobe Walter)。 – 邦坦普斯
- 波特兰开拓者队 (8-14)
获得状元签的概率： 7.1%
获得前五顺位签的概率： 30.3%
开拓者队为何会如此
波特兰意识到同时兼顾三个时间线（老将、巅峰期球员和发展中球员）是很难做到的。自从在 2023 年 2 月的交易截止日期交易了 CJ·麦科勒姆(CJ McCollum)，并在八个月后交易了达米安·利拉德(Damian Lillard) 以来，开拓者队的胜率只有 37%。 – 马克斯
我们在 2024-25 赛季剩余时间里关注的是
在交易了球星之后，波特兰重新储备了选秀资产。但随着新秀大个子多诺万·克林根(Donovan Clingan) 等待更大的角色，波特兰会交易德安德烈·艾顿(Deandre Ayton) 或罗伯特·威廉姆斯三世(Robert Williams III) 吗？开拓者队还需要弄清楚斯科特·亨德森(Scoot Henderson) 是否真的是他们未来的控球后卫，以及谢顿·夏普(Shaedon Sharpe) 是否能保持健康。 – 莱特
- 印第安纳步行者队 (9-14)
获得状元签的概率： 6.5%
获得前五顺位签的概率： 27.7%
步行者队为何会如此
步行者队受到了伤病的沉重打击，詹姆斯·怀斯曼(James Wiseman) 和以赛亚·杰克逊(Isaiah Jackson) 赛季报销，安德鲁·内姆哈德(Andrew Nembhard) 和阿隆·内史密斯(Aaron Nesmith) 也缺席了多场比赛。然而，步行者队失败的根源在于他们排名第 25 位的防守。在上赛季令人惊讶的东部决赛之旅中，印第安纳排名第二的进攻足以弥补他们糟糕的防守。尽管步行者队目前排在东部最后一个附加赛名额，但他们的 BPI 乐透赔率却排在第八位。 – 马克斯
我们在 2024-25 赛季剩余时间里关注的是
由于全明星后卫泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿(Tyrese Haliburton) 陷入了职业生涯最糟糕的统计赛季，印第安纳需要他们的进攻有所起色才能避免乐透区的失望。这始于哈利伯顿，他需要开始看起来更像 NBA 最好的年轻控球后卫，而不是今年表现挣扎的球员。 – 科利尔
关键交易和选秀权保护条款
费城 76 人队
交易内容： 如果 2025 年首轮签落在前 6 顺位之外，则归俄克拉荷马城雷霆队所有
5 胜 15 负的战绩并不是费城所期望的，尤其是在今年夏天向乔尔·恩比德(Joel Embiid)、保罗·乔治和泰瑞斯·马克西(Tyrese Maxey) 投入超过 7 亿美元之后。但在赛季两个月后，76 人队现在发现自己处于无法回头的境地。有人认为费城应该足够糟糕，以保住自己的首轮签（如果排名第 7-30 位，则归雷霆队所有），并希望他们的队标在五月份的抽签中出现状元签。但现实是，即使恩比德的出场情况不稳定，东部缺乏强队也会让费城整个赛季都保持在季后赛的竞争中。 – 马克斯
注： 尽管费城在战绩榜上的位置不佳，但 BPI 仍然预测 76 人队将成为竞争力较弱的东部联盟中的一支附加赛球队。他们接下来的赛程是 NBA 最轻松的赛程之一，但球队最初几个月的动荡使得对费城的预测几乎不可能。
明尼苏达森林狼队
交易内容： 2025 年无保护首轮签归犹他爵士队所有
交易卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)本应帮助森林狼队更好地平衡他们的阵容。但没有人预料到的是，他们的防守在上赛季轻松夺冠后跌至联盟第七。这在一定程度上与这支球队的全新阵容有关，但森林狼队本赛季场均失误得分也排在联盟第八，而上赛季排在第 15 位。考虑到爵士队在鲁迪·戈贝尔的交易后拥有这个选秀权，明尼苏达没有理由在排名上下滑。（森林狼队还欠爵士队他们在 2027 年（无保护）和 2029 年（前五顺位保护）的首轮签）。在球场上，教练克里斯·芬奇(Chris Finch) 对新秀后卫罗布·迪林厄姆(Rob Dillingham) 有多依赖？在本周没有首发后卫迈克·康利(Mike Conley) 的两场比赛中，迪林厄姆总共得到 26 分和 8 次助攻。 – 马克斯
注： BPI 目前预测森林狼队将在西部排名第 10，剩余赛程难度排名联盟第五。
圣安东尼奥马刺队
交易内容： 控制自己的 2025 年首轮签和亚特兰大老鹰队无保护的首轮签
2022 年休赛期的德章泰·穆雷(Dejounte Murray) 交易为圣安东尼奥换来了老鹰队在 2025 年和 2027 年的无保护首轮签，以及在 2026 年交换首轮签的权利。因此，圣安东尼奥可能会进入季后赛——马刺队目前排在西部第 10 位——并且如果老鹰队在东部排名下滑，还可以增加一个高乐透签与文班亚马联手。（圣安东尼奥和犹他是仅有的两支拥有两次获得状元签机会的球队。）圣安东尼奥已经建立了一支才华横溢的年轻球员阵容，他们需要时间来发展。由于马刺队拥有老鹰队 2025 年的无保护首轮签，老鹰队的最终排名值得关注。他们还将密切关注夏洛特和芝加哥的表现，因为他们也拥有来自这些球队的受保护选秀权。 – 马克斯和莱特
注： BPI 预测马刺队将在西部排名第 11，而老鹰队将在东部排名第 7。圣安东尼奥剩余赛程难度排名联盟第三。
萨克拉门托国王队
交易内容： 如果 2025 年首轮签落在前 12 顺位之外，则归亚特兰大老鹰队所有
萨克拉门托可以得分，但他们的防守一直拖累着他们。在本赛季的前四分之一，当萨克拉门托得分至少达到 125 分时，他们的战绩是联盟最差的 2 胜 4 负。德玛尔·德罗赞(DeMar DeRozan) 的健康状况和基根·穆雷(Keegan Murray) 的不稳定性将有助于决定国王队本赛季的最终排名。35 岁的德罗赞一直是最耐用的球员之一，自 2009 年以来，他参加了 92% 的常规赛比赛。然而，自从今年夏天与国王队签约以来，他因为下背部炎症缺席了四场比赛。与此同时，三年级前锋穆雷本应成为德阿隆·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)、多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯(Domantas Sabonis) 和德罗赞之外的可靠得分点。然而，他场均得到 12.4 分，投篮命中率为职业生涯最差的 41.4%，三分球命中率为 27.8%。 – 马克斯
注： BPI 预测国王队将在西部排名第 12，剩余赛程难度排名联盟第二。
布鲁克林篮网队
交易内容： 他们自 2010 年以来的第一个乐透签
今年夏天，篮网队在一笔与火箭队的交易中重新获得了 2025 年首轮签的控制权（他们还取消了 2026 年的互换权）。在 2009-10 赛季，当时的新泽西篮网队以 12 胜 70 负的战绩结束赛季，但在抽签当晚从第一顺位跌至第三顺位。篮网队还拥有来自密尔沃基（如果排名 5-30 位）、纽约和俄克拉荷马城的三个额外的首轮签。即使在休赛期将米卡尔·布里奇斯(Mikal Bridges) 交易到尼克斯队——现在又因为伤病失去了得分王卡姆·托马斯(Cam Thomas) 几周——篮网队仍然处于附加赛的位置；这是赛季开始前没有人预料到的。如果获得今年的顶级选秀权是首要任务，管理层可能需要为了未来的资产而放弃更多的人才。 – 马克斯和赫林
注： BPI 预测篮网队将在东部排名第 10，剩余赛程难度排名联盟第三。
状元秀的热门人选
最热门人选：
库珀·弗拉格，前锋，杜克大学
弗拉格的表现丝毫没有减弱他的地位，在对阵肯塔基和亚利桑那的比赛中表现出色，充分展现了他标志性的防守多功能性和出色的组织能力。随着两周后他即将年满 18 岁，球探们希望看到他的外线投篮更加稳定，同时减少失误。 – 吉沃尼
下一梯队：
迪伦·哈珀，后卫，罗格斯大学
艾斯·贝利，后卫，罗格斯大学
叶戈尔·杰明(Egor Demin)，后卫，杨百翰大学
哈珀上周对阵圣母大学和阿拉巴马大学的两场比赛中表现抢眼，展示了他作为终结者的本能和技术，以及他接管比赛的意愿。随着罗格斯大学本周进入联盟比赛，他是大学篮球中表现最好的新生球员。
作为本届新秀中最好的投手，贝利在他上周参加的每场比赛中都表现出了进步，并且继续展示了他娴熟的中距离投篮。他在很多方面仍然有待提高，但如果他能在接下来的几周保持稳定，他的球星潜力将成为一个主要话题。
杰明凭借他的身材、视野和组织能力的结合，给 NBA 球探留下了深刻的印象，他完美地执掌着一支 NBA 风格的进攻，并使从欧洲到大学的过渡看起来天衣无缝。随着杨百翰大学的赛程难度显著增加，各支球队将密切关注他创造高效进攻、防守他的位置以及稳定投篮的能力，以确定他究竟有多大可能成为状元秀的竞争者。
– 吉沃尼和伍
哪支球队最适合 2025-26 赛季的弗拉格？
吉沃尼： 夏洛特。与拉梅洛·鲍尔这样的组织奇才以及布兰登·米勒(Brandon Miller) 这样的全能侧翼一起打球将会非常精彩。他将有充足的空间与两位无私的球星一起在进攻端成长，并将为防守端提供巨大的能量和多功能性，帮助黄蜂队重返季后赛的竞争行列。
伍： 华盛顿。我很想看到弗拉格出现在前锋线上，包括他、比拉尔·库利巴利和亚历克斯·萨尔在内，从防守的角度来看，这将是一支相当强大的队伍。他们的进攻在短期内可能是另一回事，但多功能性和身高臂展将为华盛顿奠定一个良好的基础。
关于 2025 年选秀的最新动态
伍： 尽管迪伦·哈珀表现出色，艾斯·贝利也展现了令人 intrigued 的潜力，但在现阶段，联盟中的大多数人仍然很难看到库珀·弗拉格的状元位置被取代。感恩节那周，我与一大批 NBA 人员一起驻扎在拉斯维加斯，评估这三名球员。弗拉格的状元位置似乎很稳固。“很难不选他。他让人感觉很稳妥，”一位在场的高管表示。“他的无形资产和稳定性，在他 [17 岁] 的时候就已经具备了。”
即使弗拉格作为大学篮球中最年轻的球员之一经历了一些起伏——而且管理层将继续在整个赛季讨论这些球员——大多数人预计他的防守、篮球智商和多功能性将使他成为一名特殊的球员从长远来看，无论他是否发展成为一个真正的顶级进攻选择。正如另一位高管所说：“[放弃弗拉格] 将是非常大胆的。”
吉沃尼： 弗拉格是焦点人物，但 NBA 球探们对人才济济的大学新生班级非常着迷，其中有很多“一年级生”新秀，以及预计将在二年级赛季回归的未来乐透新秀。2025 届新秀还拥有近年来我们见过的最深厚的国际新秀群体之一。来自法国、西班牙、澳大利亚、以色列、克罗地亚和德国的多达 12 名球员正在争夺首轮被选中的机会。
点击查看原文：NBA draft 2025 - Projections, prospects, protections to watch
NBA draft 2025 - Projections, prospects, protections to watch
The NBA season is only two months old, but it is not too early to look ahead to the draft lottery in May.
The teams jockeying for position to draft top prospects Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are either in the middle stages of rebuilding, have been impacted by injuries or underachieved through the first quarter of the season.
The Indiana Pacers, coming off a trip to the Eastern Conference finals, are an early potential lottery team. So are the Philadelphia 76ers, who won the offseason by signing free agent wing Paul George but find themselves in the conference’s basement at 5-15. Philly is currently looking up at rebuilding teams such as the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors and Charlotte Hornets, all of which are projected to land high picks in June’s draft.
The Western Conference is as deep as ever, but three teams – the rebuilding Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers and the injury-ravaged New Orleans Pelicans – currently have the inside track at landing a top pick.
Guided by projections from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), NBA insiders Tim Bontemps, Jamal Collier, Chris Herring, Bobby Marks, Tim MacMahon and Michael C. Wright examine how eight projected lottery teams got here and what matters most the rest of the season. Draft experts Jonthan Givony and Jeremy Woo then break down the candidates who could go No. 1 – headlined by Flagg – and the latest buzz surrounding the highly anticipated 2025 draft class.
Jump to a section:\
**The bottom 8: Projections, outlooks\
Traded draft picks we’re watching\
Flagg fits, plus more No. 1 contenders**
Projected lottery teams
1. Washington Wizards (2-17)\
Chance at No. 1 pick: 14.0%\
Chance at top-5 pick: 93.9%
Why the Wizards are here \
The Wizards have fully embraced their rebuild. Starting with the 2023 trade that sent Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns, Wizards president of basketball operations Michael Winger has made 11 trades, netting two first-round picks, 12 second-round picks and four years of pick swaps with Phoenix. One of those trades saw Washington deal Deni Avdija to Portland for the 14th pick (the draft rights to guard Bub Carrington), veteran Malcolm Brogdon and the second most favorable 2029 first-rounder among Portland, Boston and Milwaukee. The Wizards’ roster could look much different after the Feb. 6 trade deadline, as Washington has the expiring contracts of Brogdon, Marvin Bagley III and veteran Jonas Valanciunas available to use in trades. – Marks
What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25\
An 0-14 November has the Wizards in pole position to finish with the league’s worst record. They’ll continue to give plenty of minutes to youngsters Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr and Carrington along the way, too, as they hope to claim another impact player in the 2025 draft. – Bontemps
2. Utah Jazz (4-17)\
Chance at No. 1 pick: 13.8%\
Chance at top-5 pick: 80.8%
Why the Jazz are here\
Utah’s plunge in the West dates back to the 2022 offseason, when the franchise pivoted from playoff contention and elected to trade starters Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O’Neale. The Mitchell and Gobert trades, in particular, brought back seven first-round picks (including six unprotected). However, only one of those picks have been conveyed: guard Keyonte George in 2023. – Marks
What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25\
Player development is the priority for the Jazz, and that isn’t just a euphemism for targeting a top spot in a loaded lottery. Utah has the youngest roster in the league with eight players under 24 and is using this season to evaluate those players. The Jazz are also expected to be active in the trade market with veterans such as John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton available for the right deal. – MacMahon
3. Charlotte Hornets (6-15)\
Chance at No. 1 pick: 11.8%\
Chance at top-5 pick: 54.5%
Why the Hornets are here\
Before general manager Jeff Peterson was hired in May, the Hornets’ new ownership led by Rick Schnall took a proactive approach to the February 2024 trade deadline. Instead of holding on to veterans Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward and PJ Washington, Charlotte traded all three players for two future first-round picks and two second-round picks. They would acquire six more second-rounders after Peterson took over. – Marks
What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25\
More than anything, the team’s injuries. The Hornets have been competitive, logging a league-high 13 clutch games (defined as the score within five points during the final five minutes of play or overtime.) That’s impressive considering how much of the rotation has been hit with injuries. Star guard LaMelo Ball, who’s missed the vast majority of the past two seasons, will miss at least the next two weeks with a calf strain. Tre Mann, in the midst of a career year, has been experiencing disc issues in his back and will be reevaluated in two weeks. Forward Grant Williams will miss the rest of the season after rupturing his ACL and meniscus. Promising center Mark Williams, 22, made his season debut Tuesday night against Philadelphia. – Chris Herring
4. New Orleans Pelicans (4-18)\
Chance at No. 1 pick: 11.1%\
Chance at top-5 pick: 50.2%
Why the Pelicans are here \
General manager David Griffin has built a talented roster, but a glut of injuries – most notably to Zion Williamson – has resulted in a slow start, including the current nine-game losing streak, that New Orleans likely won’t be able to recover from in the ultra-competitive West. The good news is New Orleans controls its own first-round picks for the next seven years. – Wright
What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25\
The Pelicans, who have never paid the luxury tax, are currently $1.4 million above it, meaning there is most likely a minor trade on the horizon to dip below. The unknown is the future of Brandon Ingram, a pending free agent in the offseason. Eligible to sign a four-year, $208 million extension since July, Ingram and the Pelicans remain at an impasse. He switched agents earlier this week, signing with the Rich Paul-led Klutch Sports Group. – Marks
5. Detroit Pistons (9-15)\
Chance at No. 1 pick: 9.4%\
Chance at top-5 pick: 41.0%
Why the Pistons are here\
Bad luck in the lottery. The Pistons won a combined 54 games over the past three seasons but walked away with the fifth pick after each year. And while Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland II could develop into starters, neither has flashed All-NBA potential. (Could you have imagined Victor Wembanyama and Paolo Banchero joining former No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham?) – Marks
What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25\
Can the Pistons keep up their early-season success and avoid the lottery? Detroit has already picked up its ninth win of the season, which took until February to reach last season. Detroit hopes its mix of young talent, led by a strong start from Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, can complement veterans such as Tobias Harris to help the team stack up victories and challenge for the postseason. – Jamal Collier
6. Toronto Raptors (7-15)\
Chance at No. 1 pick: 8.8%\
Chance at top-5 pick: 38.2%
Why the Raptors are here\
They got tired of the middle. It started when Toronto traded OG Anunoby to New York and Pascal Siakam to Indiana in a three-week span midway through the 2023-24 season. The Raptors then flipped veteran Dennis Schroder for the expiring contract of Spencer Dinwiddie. The franchise has made a commitment to its young core, signing Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes to a combined $390 million this offseason. Quickley sustained a partial UCL tear in his elbow in early November and has played just three games this year. – Marks
What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25\
Toronto has a chance to play itself out of this range if it can get its main pieces on the court. (Sunday marked the 10th game Barnes has played this season.) Still, this team is clearly hoping to land another high pick and will keep playing its young players, such as guards Gradey Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter, as the season progresses. – Bontemps
7. Portland Trail Blazers (8-14)\
Chance at No. 1 pick: 7.1%\
Chance at top-5 pick: 30.3%
Why the Blazers are here\
Portland realized that working on three timelines (veterans, players in the primes and developmental projects) is difficult to pull off. Since trading CJ McCollum at the February 2023 trade deadline and Damian Lillard eight months later, the Blazers have won just 37% of their games. – Marks
What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25\
Portland is restocked with draft assets after trading its stars. But with rookie big man Donovan Clingan waiting for a larger role, will Portland trade Deandre Ayton or Robert Williams III? The Blazers also need to figure out whether Scoot Henderson is truly their point guard of the future and whether Shaedon Sharpe can stay healthy. – Wright
8. Indiana Pacers (9-14)\
Chance at No. 1 pick: 6.5%\
Chance at top-5 pick: 27.7%
Why the Pacers are here\
The Pacers have been hit hard by injuries, losing James Wiseman and Isaiah Jackson for the season and Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith for stretches of games. The root of the Pacers’ failures, however, stems from their 25th-ranked defense. During last season’s surprise run to the conference finals, Indiana’s second-ranked offense was enough to overcome a porous defense. The Pacers find themselves with BPI’s eighth-best lottery odds despite sitting in the East’s final play-in spot. – Marks
What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25\
With All-NBA guard Tyrese Haliburton marred by his worst statistical season of his career, Indiana is going to need its offense to get into gear to avoid a lottery letdown. That begins with Haliburton, who needs to start looking more like the best young point guard in the NBA than the player who has struggled this year. – Collier
Key trades and pick protections
**Philadelphia 76ers\
What’s at play:** 2025 first-round pick goes to Oklahoma City if it falls outside the top 6
A 5-15 record is not what Philadelphia had expected, especially after committing over $700 million to Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey this summer. But two months into the season, the 76ers now find themselves in a place of no return. There is the thought that Philadelphia should be bad enough to keep their own first (it goes to Oklahoma City if 7-30) and hope their logo shows up with the first pick in May. Then there is the reality that the lack of quality teams in the East will keep Philadelphia in the playoff race all season even if Embiid’s availability is game-to-game. – Marks
Note: Despite Philadelphia’s place in the standings, BPI still projects the 76ers to be a play-in team in the weaker East. They face one of the NBA’s easiest remaining schedules, but the team’s whirlwind first few months create a near impossible projection for Philly.
**Minnesota Timberwolves\
What’s at play:** 2025 unprotected first-round pick goes to Utah
Trading Karl-Anthony Towns was supposed to help the Wolves better balance their roster. But what no one saw coming was their defense falling to seventh in the league after easily capturing the top spot last season. Some of that has to do with the newness to this roster, but the Timberwolves have also allowed the eighth-most points off turnovers this season after finishing 15th last season. Considering Utah owns this pick after the Rudy Gobert trade, there is no incentive for Minnesota to fall any deeper in the standings. (The Wolves also owe the Jazz their first-round picks in 2027 (unprotected) and 2029 (top-five protected). On the court, how much does coach Chris Finch rely on rookie guard Rob Dillingham? In two games this week without starting guard Mike Conley, Dillingham totaled 26 points and eight assists. – Marks
Note: BPI currently projects the Timberwolves to finish No. 10 in the West, with the fifth-toughest remaining schedule.
**San Antonio Spurs\
What’s at play:** Control own 2025 first-round pick and Atlanta’s unprotected first-round pick
The Dejounte Murray trade in the 2022 offseason netted San Antonio the Hawks’ unprotected first-round pick in 2025, 2027 and the right to swap first-rounders in 2026. As a result, San Antonio could make the postseason – the Spurs are currently holding onto 10th in the West – and also add a high lottery pick to join Victor Wembanyama should the Hawks drop in the East standings. (San Antonio and Utah are the only teams with two cracks at the top spot.) San Antonio has built a talented young roster that needs time to develop. How Atlanta finishes is of interest since the Spurs own a Hawks unprotected first-round pick in 2025. They’ll also keep close watch on how Charlotte and Chicago fare since they own protected picks from those teams, too. – Marks and Wright
Note: BPI projects the Spurs to finish 11th in the West, while it projects the Hawks to finish No. 7 in the East. San Antonio has the third-toughest remaining schedule in the league.
**Sacramento Kings\
What’s at play:** 2025 first-round pick goes to Atlanta if it falls outside the top 12
Sacramento can put up points. but their defense continues to hold them back. Through the first quarter of the season, Sacramento is an NBA-worst 2-4 when they score at least 125 points. The health of DeMar DeRozan and inconsistency of Keegan Murray will help define where the Kings end up this season. DeRozan, 35, had been one of the more durable players, appearing in 92% of regular-season games since 2009. However, since signing with the Kings this summer, he has missed four games because of lower back inflammation. Third-year forward Murray, meanwhile, was supposed to be a reliable scoring option next to De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and DeRozan. However, he is averaging 12.4 points and shooting a career-worst 41.4% from the field and 27.8% on 3-pointers. – Marks
Note: BPI projects the Kings to finish 12th in the West, with the second-toughest remaining schedule.
**Brooklyn Nets\
What’s at play:** Their first lottery pick since 2010
This summer, the Nets regained control of their 2025 first-round pick (they also eliminated swap rights in 2026) in a trade with the Rockets. In 2009-10, the then-New Jersey Nets finished with a 12-70 record but dropped from first to third the night of the lottery. The Nets also have three additional first-rounders from Milwaukee (if 5-30), New York and Oklahoma City. Even after dealing away Mikal Bridges to the Knicks during the offseason – and now having lost leading scorer Cam Thomas to injury for the next few weeks – Brooklyn finds itself in play-in position; something no one figured would be the case heading into the season. The front office might need to unload more talent for future assets if getting a top draft pick this year is the priority. – Marks and Herring
Note: BPI projects the Nets to finish No. 10 in the East, with the third-easiest remaining schedule.
Top candidates for the No. 1 pick
The favorite:\
Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
Flagg has done nothing to diminish his standing, with spectacular showings against Kentucky and Arizona while putting his trademark defensive versatility and outstanding playmaking on full display. As his 18th birthday approaches in two weeks, scouts will want to see him find consistency with his outside shooting while cutting down on turnovers. – Jonathan Givony
The next tier:\
Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers\
Ace Bailey, G, Rutgers\
Egor Demin, G, BYU
Harper turned in a pair of eye-popping performances last week against Notre Dame and Alabama, showcasing his instincts and skill as a finisher and his willingness to take over games. He has been the best freshman performer in college basketball as Rutgers enters conference play this week.
Bailey, the best shotmaker in this draft, showed improvement in each game he played last week, and continues to showcase a clinical midrange game. He remains a work in progress in a lot of areas, but his star upside will become a major talking point if he can stay consistent in the coming weeks.
Demin has wowed NBA scouts with his combination of size, vision and playmaking, running an NBA-style offense to perfection and making the transition from Europe to college look seamless. With BYU’s schedule stiffening significantly, teams will closely monitor his ability to generate efficient offense, defend his position and make shots consistently to determine just how much of a top-pick contender he is.
– Givony and Jeremy Woo
Which team would Flagg fit best in 2025-26?
Givony: Charlotte. Operating alongside a playmaking wizard like LaMelo Ball along with a do-it-all wing in Brandon Miller would be exciting to watch. He’d have plenty of room to grow offensively alongside two unselfish stars and would provide a huge jolt of energy and versatility defensively to help propel the Hornets back into playoff contention.
Woo: Washington. I’d be curious to see Flagg on a front line including him, Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr would be quite formidable from a defensive standpoint. Their offense might be a different story in the short term, but the amount of versatility and length would give Washington an excellent foundation.
Latest buzz on the 2025 draft
Woo: Despite the strong play of Dylan Harper and the intriguing upside of Ace Bailey, it’s still hard for most around the league to see Cooper Flagg unseated at No. 1 at this stage. I spent Thanksgiving week stationed in Vegas with a large NBA contingent evaluating all three players. Flagg feels entrenched at the top. “It would be pretty hard not to take him. He just feels so safe,” said one executive in attendance. “His intangibles and consistency already, at [17 years old].”
Even with Flagg going through some ups and downs as one of the youngest players in college basketball – and front offices will continue to have dialogue about these guys all season – most expect his defense, basketball IQ and versatility to make him a special player in the long run, whether or not he develops into a true top offensive option. As another exec put it: “[Passing on Flagg] would be pretty ballsy.”
Givony: Flagg is the headliner, but NBA scouts are smitten with a college freshman class loaded with one-and-done prospects, as well as future lottery picks projected to return for their sophomore seasons. The 2025 class also boasts one of the deeper groups of international prospects we’ve seen in recent years. Up to a dozen players from France, Spain, Australia, Israel, Croatia and Germany are vying for first-round consideration.
via ESPN