By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-12-03 03:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
是时候分析一下尼克斯糟糕的防守，森林狼的困境，以及雄鹿的进步了。
赛季已经过了一个多月，而森林狼、雄鹿和尼克斯的总战绩仍然只有31胜27负。
也许我们很多人对他们的夺冠机会判断失误，但我认为这也显示了目前联盟的深度。除了少数几支排名靠前和垫底的球队外，其他每支球队都仍然有能力进入季后赛或附加赛。
但考虑到季前对森林狼、雄鹿和纽约的期望值有多高，我们有必要分析一下他们能否触底反弹，达到人们的预期。
让我们从大苹果城开始。
尼克斯能加强防守吗？
交易得到卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)表明纽约希望将进攻作为球队的核心，而且这在很大程度上取得了成功。尼克斯目前以123.5的进攻效率排名联盟第二，而唐斯则可以说正打出他职业生涯中最好的一个赛季：大猫目前场均得到25.8分，投篮命中率高达54%，三分球命中率46.8%，罚球命中率85%。
然而，球场的另一端却成了一个主要问题。尼克斯知道得到唐斯会牺牲很多防守，但我认为没有人预料到会这么糟糕。他们117.6的防守效率排名联盟第24位，这主要是因为唐斯糟糕的篮筐保护——当唐斯防守时，对手在篮下六英尺内的命中率高达72%，比他们在该区域的平均命中率高出9.5%。
客观地说，9.5%的命中率差距是本赛季所有出场时间超过100分钟的中锋中最大的。简而言之，到目前为止，唐斯是整个NBA轮换阵容中最差的护框球员。
看看比赛录像，不难看出原因。在下面的第一个回合中，唐斯由于对持球人防守过晚而陷入无人区，让PJ·华盛顿(PJ Washington)轻松地将球传给德里克·莱弗利(Dereck Lively)完成空接扣篮。然后，唐斯落在了进攻的后面，即使在回防之后，他仍然鲁莽地挥击球犯规。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月1日
更糟糕的是，唐斯的团队防守可能和他单兵防守一样糟糕。在下一个片段中，他再次落在了进攻的后面（有趣的是，仅在本场比赛的第一节，我就数到四次这种情况发生），并且不知道该防守谁。这造成了尼克斯防守的混乱，并导致他们丢掉了一个空位三分。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月1日
考虑到唐斯作为单中锋防守不佳的历史，某种程度上这是意料之中的。然而，出乎意料的是米卡尔·布里奇斯(Mikal Bridges)在他自己防守端的挣扎。
尼克斯在得到布里奇斯之后又孤注一掷地进行了唐斯的交易，理由是他们和OG·阿奴诺比(OG Anunoby)组成的“翅尖双雄”可以弥补唐斯的不足。对纽约来说不幸的是，到目前为止，他们得到的是一盘没有鸡腿的翅根。
布里奇斯令人失望的防守始于他横向移动速度的下降。在下面的第一个回合中，他被凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)的假动作晃过，无法对后者的突破提供任何阻力。欧文可以说是单挑中最难防守的球员，但当布里奇斯的防守处于巅峰状态时，他至少能够及时回防并在身后进行干扰。
第二个回合更能概括尼克斯的问题。首先，欧文突破了布里奇斯，然后由于唐斯又一次的防守迟缓，他轻松地将球传给莱弗利完成空接扣篮。唐斯再次犹豫不决，因为他既没有上前阻止欧文，也没有盯住莱弗利来阻止扣篮。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年11月29日
从好的方面来看，米切尔·罗宾逊(Mitchell Robinson)即将回归将有助于解决纽约的许多防守问题。我预计布里奇斯也会变得更好，因为他仍在适应重新成为一名角色球员，而且尼克斯的防守很有可能接近联盟平均水平。
森林狼去年是否只是昙花一现？
大猫是NBA中团队氛围最好的球员吗？考虑到森林狼球员之间似乎有多么不喜欢彼此，他可能确实是。
森林狼上赛季的成功建立在他们出色的防守之上，而本赛季他们的防守急剧下滑。在2023-24赛季，他们以108.9的防守效率排名联盟第一，比排名第二的奥兰多魔术高出2.6分。今年他们的防守效率仍然不错，为112.4（排名第8），但这已不足以弥补他们糟糕的进攻（113.2，排名第19）。
两个赛季最大的区别在于鲁迪·戈贝尔(Rudy Gobert)的在场/不在场数据。去年，森林狼在戈贝尔不在场时仍然拥有精英级别的防守，防守效率为111.3，而现在已经一路下滑到122.2。
讽刺的是，他们在没有戈贝尔的情况下取得的很多成功都归功于唐斯的攻防两端表现。虽然我们刚刚用了整整一个部分来剖析他糟糕的防守，但这很大程度上是由于战术体系造成的。当身后有另一名中锋保护篮筐时，唐斯可以成为一名非常有用的防守者，而他在纽约的挣扎在很大程度上是因为他是唯一的内线球员。即使没有戈贝尔在他身后，森林狼仍然有纳兹·里德(Naz Reid)和一群有干扰能力的侧翼球员，这使得唐斯的工作轻松了许多。
然而，朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle)则完全是另一回事。虽然唐斯在防守端可能会注意力不集中，但在合适的战术体系下，他拥有足够的防守智商来胜任。不幸的是，兰德尔既注意力不集中，又缺乏防守智商。下面的片段就是一个很好的例子，它展示了兰德尔连续四个回合不知道自己的防守任务，给了国王队要么一条通往篮筐的畅通无阻的道路，要么一个空位投篮机会。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年11月29日
进攻端的情况也好不到哪里去。森林狼一直在投三分——他们43.9%的进攻回合以三分球结束，这是联盟第五高的比例。考虑到他们上赛季只有35%的进攻回合以三分球告终（排名第20），感觉他们正试图因为唐斯的缺席而在三分球方面过度补偿。
问题是他们现在只是一支平均水平的投篮球队，森林狼37.2%的三分球命中率排名联盟第12。这主要得益于安东尼·爱德华兹(Anthony Edwards)，他现在47%的出手来自三分球。他的三分球命中率高达43%，但这导致他在篮下四英尺内的出手只占他总出手的24%，比他之前的职业生涯最低值低了7%。
考虑到爱德华兹的出色表现，他高频率地投三分球本身并没有什么错，但这导致他突破次数减少，而突破才是他最具威胁的时候。看到他的助攻率从24.1%下降到17.9%也就不足为奇了：考虑到兰德尔糟糕的三分球命中率（33.7%）和喜欢单打独斗的倾向，森林狼的进攻变得更像是“轮流单打”的类型。
简而言之，这支球队缺乏一个明确的定位。他们的最佳球员觉得有必要牺牲自己上帝级别的运动能力来弥补球队缺乏空间的问题，而球队的防守也不再足以弥补他们低于平均水平的进攻。
雄鹿终于转运了吗？
在雄鹿开局1胜6负后，湖人球迷已经在PS字母哥身穿紫金球衣的图片了，但谢天谢地，雄鹿已经扭转了颓势，目前取得了六连胜。
那么哪一段更能体现雄鹿的真实水平呢？看看数据，很明显雄鹿在糟糕的开局阶段在防守端运气不佳：他们的对手有效命中率高达56.1%，即使考虑到他们的投篮位置，他们的预期有效命中率也只有53.6%。在那段时间里，对手在篮下四英尺内的命中率高达69%，这与一支以篮筐保护为傲的雄鹿队非常不相符。
从那以后，他们的运气发生了逆转：雄鹿对手的有效命中率下降到只有52.1%（那段时间排名第5），低于他们54.6%的预期有效命中率。在那段时间里，雄鹿的防守效率排名联盟第11位（112.8），这主要是因为他们将对手在篮筐附近的命中率限制在59.6%（排名第3）。
简而言之，雄鹿的防守最近矫枉过正了。然而，考虑到他们不走运的开局，雄鹿的防守应该处于平均水平或略低于平均水平，这与他们目前排名第19的防守效率（115.3）相符。
在他们交易得到达米安·利拉德(Damian Lillard)之后，这是意料之中的。然而，他们平庸的进攻却令人惊讶。这支球队的全部前提是拥有平均水平的防守和超凡脱俗的进攻，而后者并没有实现，考虑到他们114.7的进攻效率勉强跻身前十。
进攻端最大的问题是字母哥和利拉德之间缺乏化学反应。当两人同时在场时，雄鹿116.9的进攻效率仍然无法进入前五，而当利拉德在场而字母哥不在场时，雄鹿的进攻效率实际上更高（117.4）。看似完美的组合变成了两个球星轮流控球，而且两人都不愿意牺牲。
对于字母哥来说，当他和利拉德一起打球时，他理想的角色是更多地扮演大个子，但希腊怪兽本赛季只有9.4%的回合扮演了角色球员。与此同时，利拉德仍然不愿意在无球情况下利用他的牵制力，因为他经常只是站着看字母哥在人群中硬凿，而自己却一动不动。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年11月24日
在上面的片段中，如果利拉德跑到强侧底角，给字母哥一个传球出口，而不是让他在油漆区1打3，雄鹿的进攻会更具威胁。即便如此，当字母哥不愿意把球传给空位的利拉德时，我也不怪利拉德不这样做：
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年12月2日
那么，这是先有鸡还是先有蛋呢？谁的错更大呢？好吧，考虑到两人都不愿意牺牲，这真的无关紧要。
如果克里斯·米德尔顿(Khris Middleton)能够复出，他将在攻防两端提供帮助，但在目前这个阶段，不能指望他打很长时间的比赛。即使没有他，这支雄鹿队仍然有足够的实力进入季后赛，或许还能赢下一轮系列赛，但是随着阵容老化和没有操作空间，他们的上限远不及一支总决赛球队，更不用说一支能够争夺总冠军的球队了。
本周，请查看我的朋友Jeje关于斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)与文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)的适配性的文章！这对51区组合席卷了整个联盟，Jeje很好地阐述了这是如何发生的。
感谢阅读！
所有数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: New York’s leaky D, bad vibes in Minny, and the Bucks’ turn of luck
Around the NBA: New York’s leaky D, bad vibes in Minny, and the Bucks’ turn of luck
It’s time to analyze the Knickerbockers’ bad defense, Minnesota’s struggles, and Milwaukee’s improved play.
We’re over a month into the season, and the Wolves, Bucks, and Knickerbockers still have a combined record of just 31-27.
Perhaps many of us were simply wrong about their title chances, but I think it also shows how deep the league currently is. Outside of a select few teams at the top and bottom, every other squad is still more than capable of making the playoffs or play-in.
But given how high many were on Minnesota, Milwaukee, and New York, it’s worth analyzing if they can bounce back and meet the pre-season expectations.
Let’s begin in the Big Apple.
Can the Knickerbockers tighten up their D?
Trading for KAT was an indication that New York wanted to make offense more of their identity, and it’s largely paid off. The Knicks are currently second league-wide in offensive rating at 123.5, and KAT is having arguably his best season yet: Big Purr is currently averaging 25.8 points on ludicrous 54/46.8/85 shooting splits.
The other end of the court has proved to be a major problem, though. The Knicks knew that they’d be sacrificing a lot of their defensive identity by acquiring KAT, but I don’t think anyone expected it to be this bad. Their 117.6 defensive rating is 24th, which has largely been caused by KAT’s abysmal rim protection — opposing players are shooting 72% within six feet of the basket when guarded by KAT, which is 9.5% higher than their average field goal percentage in that area.
To put things in perspective, that 9.5% difference in FG% is the largest discrepancy in the league among centers who’ve played over 100 minutes this season. In short, KAT has been the worst rotation-level big man in the entire NBA at protecting the rim so far.
Looking at the tape, it’s not hard to see why. In the first possession below, KAT’s caught in no man’s land since he commits too late to the ballhandler, allowing PJ Washington to easily dump it to Dereck Lively for the open dunk. Then, KAT’s caught behind the play, and even after recovering, he takes a foul by haphazardly swiping at the ball.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 1, 2024
To make matters worse, KAT might be just as bad of a team defender as he is an individual one. In the next clip, he’s once again caught behind the play (anecdotally, I counted four instances of that happening in the first quarter of this game alone) and has no idea who to guard. This creates chaos in the Knicks’ defense and leads to them giving up a wide-open three.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 1, 2024
On some level, this was to be expected given KAT’s history of playing shoddy defense when he’s the lone big. What wasn’t expected, though, is Mikal Bridges’ struggles in his own end.
The Knicks rolled the dice on the KAT trade after they already acquired Bridges, with the rationale being that the WingStop duo of him and OG Anunoby could cover for KAT’s deficiencies. Unfortunately for New York, they’ve thus far been served a plate of drums without the flats.
Bridges’ disappointing defense begins with his declining lateral quickness. In the first possession below, he bites on Kyrie’s fake and isn’t able to provide any resistance on the latter’s drive. Kyrie is arguably the hardest player to guard in isolation, but when Bridges was at his defensive peak, he would’ve at least been able to recover enough to contest from behind.
The second possession sums up the Knicks’ problem even better. First, Kyrie blows by Bridges, before making an easy lob to Lively due to another late contest from KAT. The big man was caught being indecisive once again, as he didn’t step up to contain Kyrie nor stick to Lively to prevent the dunk.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) November 29, 2024
On the bright side, the pending return of Mitchell Robinson will help shore up a lot of New York’s defensive issues. I expect Bridges to be better too since he’s still adapting to being a role player again, and it’s very possible that the Knicks could get closer to a league-average defense.
Did Minnesota catch lightning in a bottle last year?
Is Big Purr the best team chemistry guy in the NBA? Given how much the Wolves seem to dislike each other, he might just be.
Minnesota’s success last year was predicated on their elite defense, which has drastically slipped this season. In 2023-24, they had the best defensive rating at 108.9, which was 2.6 points better than #2 ranked Orlando. They’ve still been decent this year at 112.4 (8th), but it’s no longer good enough to make up for their shoddy offense (113.2, 19th).
The biggest difference between the two seasons has been Rudy Gobert’s on/off numbers. Last year, the Wolves were still elite with the Stifle Tower on the bench by boasting a 111.3 defensive rating, which has now dropped all the way down to 122.2.
Ironically, a lot of their success without Gobert was the two-way play of KAT. While we just dedicated an entire section dissecting his poor defense, a lot of that is due to scheme. KAT can be a very useful defender with another centre protecting the rim behind him, and his struggles in New York have largely been exacerbated because he’s been the lone big. Even without Gobert behind him, the Wolves still had another big in Naz Reid and a plethora of disruptive wings that made KAT’s job a lot easier.
Julius Randle, though, is a whole different story. While KAT can be inattentive on D, he has enough defensive IQ to be serviceable under the right schemes. Unfortunately, Randle is both inattentive and has poor defensive IQ. The clip below is a good example, as it shows four consecutive possessions of Randle not knowing his assignment, giving the Kings either a free runway to the rim or a wide-open shot.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) November 29, 2024
Offensively, things aren’t much better. Minnesota has been jacking threes — 43.9% of their possessions end that way, which is the fifth-highest rate in the league. Given that they only shot from deep on 35% of possessions last year (20th), it feels like they’re trying to overcompensate in that area due to KAT’s absence.
The problem is that they’re now an average shooting team, as Minny’s 37.2% success rate is 12th. Most of that has been propped up by Anthony Edwards, who now takes 47% of his shots from three. He’s making a ludicrous 43% of those attempts, but it’s resulted in him taking just 24% of his shots within four feet of the basket, which is 7% lower than his previous career low.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with Ant shooting threes at a high clip given his success, but it has resulted in him driving less, which is when he’s most dangerous. It’s also not surprising to see his assist percentage drop from 24.1% to 17.9%: Minny has turned more into a my turn, your turn type of offense given Randle’s poor three-point shooting (33.7%) and tendency to play hero-ball.
In short, this team just doesn’t have an identity. Their best player feels the need to compensate for their lack of spacing at the expense of using his god-tier athleticism, and the defense is no longer good enough to make up for their below-average offense.
Are the Bucks finally earning some luck?
Lakers fans were already photoshopping Giannis in the purple and gold after Milwaukee started 1-6, but the Bucks have thankfully righted the ship and are now on a six-game winning streak.
So which stretch was more indicative of Milwaukee’s true level? Looking at the numbers, it’s evident that the Bucks were getting unlucky defensively amid their horrid start: their opponents had a 56.1% effective field goal percentage even though they were expected to make 53.6% when accounting for their shot location. During that time, a nice 69% of shots went in against the Bucks within four feet of the rim, which is very unlike a Milwaukee team that prides itself on rim protection.
Since then, their luck has reversed: Milwaukee’s opponent’s eFG% is down to just 52.1% (5th during that span), which is lower than their expected location eFG% of 54.6%. Over that time, the Bucks have had the 11th-best defensive rating (112.8), largely fuelled by them holding opponents to just 59.6% (3rd) around the rim.
Simply put, Milwaukee’s defense has overcorrected recently. After factoring in their unlucky start, though, the Bucks should be about an average or slightly below-average on defense, which is right in line with their current 19th-ranked defensive rating (115.3).
That was to be expected when they traded for Damian Lillard. However, their mediocre offense is what comes as a surprise. The entire premise of this team was to have an average defense but an otherworldly offense, the latter of which hasn’t come to fruition considering their 114.7 offensive rating barely scratches the top 10.
The biggest issue on that end is the lack of chemistry between Giannis and Dame. With both on the court, Milwaukee’s 116.9 offensive rating would still be outside the top 5, and the Bucks are actually better with Dame on and Giannis off (117.4 ORTG). What seemed like a perfect combo has been reduced to just two stars trading ballhandling duties, and neither has been willing to sacrifice.
For Giannis, his ideal role is to operate more as a big when he’s with Dame, but the Greek Freak has been the role man on just 9.4% of possessions this year. Meanwhile, Dame is still unwilling to use his gravity in an off-ball role, as he often just stands and watches Giannis plow through a wall without moving.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) November 24, 2024
In the clip above, the Bucks’ offense would be much more dangerous if Dame ran to the strong side corner, giving Giannis an outlet pass instead of having him go 1 on 3 in the paint. Even so, I don’t blame Dame for not doing it when Giannis has been unwilling to pass him open looks in the corner:
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2024
So, is it the chicken or the egg? Who’s more at fault here? Well, it really doesn’t matter given that neither has been willing to sacrifice.
Khris Middleton will help on both ends when if he ever returns, but he can’t be counted on at this point to play heavy minutes. Even without him, this Bucks roster is still good enough to make the playoffs and perhaps win a round, but with an aging roster and no room to maneuver, their ceiling is nowhere near that of a finals team, much less one that could compete for a title.
This week, please check out my friend Jeje’s article on Stephon Castle’s fit next to Wemby! The Area 51 duo has taken the league by storm, and Jeje does a great job of articulating how that’s happened.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock