By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-11-19 01:59:09
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
历史告诉我们，那些历史级别的伟大球员用了多长时间才赢得总冠军，以及背后的原因。
我知道感恩节前严格禁止任何圣诞节元素的规定，我完全支持这项规定。我也能再等两周才去听“奶奶被驯鹿撞了”（由不朽的埃尔莫·什罗普郡演唱）和其他节日经典歌曲。
然而，当维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)最近连续三场比赛投进六个或更多三分球时，许多马刺球迷（包括我）的脑海中都浮现出蜜饯李子跳舞的景象。在这些幻象中，我试图弄清楚蜜饯李子到底是什么。根据维基百科：
蜜饯李子 是一种糖衣杏仁或其他硬糖，制成小的圆形或椭圆形。这些糖果名称中的“李子”并不总是指水果意义上的李子，而是指它们的小尺寸和球形或椭圆形。传统的蜜饯李子通常不含水果，而是主要由纯糖制成。
哇，蜜饯李子听起来糟透了，我立刻停止了蜜饯李子的幻想。但文班这三场比赛的表现让我思考了另一个问题：我们能否回顾NBA伟大球员的历史，从而推断出文班带领马刺队夺得第六个总冠军的合理时间线？
为了进行这项研究，我考察了真正的NBA巨星，那些在某个时期被认为是联盟最佳球员，并且会出现在大多数NBA历史前十名左右球员名单上的人。让我们按时间顺序来回顾。
比尔·拉塞尔(Bill Russell)在新秀赛季就赢得了他的第一个NBA总冠军，并在13年里豪取11个总冠军。拉塞尔在他赢得第一个总冠军时只有22岁，但任何球队像拉塞尔的凯尔特人队那样统治当今NBA的可能性几乎为零。当时的NBA只有八支球队，包括来自罗切斯特、锡拉丘兹和印第安纳州韦恩堡的球队。这意味着我们无法从拉塞尔的经历中学到太多。
所有历史前十榜单上的下一位球员是威尔特·张伯伦(Wilt Chamberlain)，他在凯尔特人队的许多总冠军征程中都输给了拉塞尔。张伯伦最终在1967年随76人队取得了突破——这是他在联盟的第八个赛季，当时他29岁。那个时代的另一位伟大球员，杰里·韦斯特(Jerry West)，直到1971-1972赛季与张伯伦在湖人队联手才赢得总冠军，当时韦斯特34岁，正处于他的第十二个赛季。
下一个真正的伟大球员是卡里姆·阿卜杜尔-贾巴尔(Kareem Abdul-Jabbar)。在加州大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)效力四年（并在他的三个大学赛季中获得三次NCAA冠军）之后，贾巴尔在24岁时随雄鹿队赢得了他的第一个NBA总冠军，那是他的第三个NBA赛季。正如我之前在这里写到的，文班的训练方案和体型让我相信，他能够比肩贾巴尔的职业生涯长度和成就。我们已经知道文班会投进更多的三分球。贾巴尔在他的职业生涯中只投进过一个：
贾巴尔在下一位伟大球员——魔术师约翰逊(Magic Johnson)的第一个NBA总冠军中也扮演了重要角色。魔术师打破了常规，以20岁的新秀身份赢得了总冠军，那可能是他职业生涯中最好的一场比赛——在费城举行的第六场决胜局中，他砍下42分、15个篮板和7次助攻。作为那个赛季的MVP，贾巴尔因脚踝严重扭伤错过了那场比赛。他后来在1985年湖人队最终击败凯尔特人队时，以38岁的高龄成为了NBA总决赛最年长的MVP。
魔术师的主要竞争对手，拉里·伯德(Larry Bird)，也在他职业生涯的早期就赢得了他的第一个总冠军。伯德在24岁时，于他的第二个赛季夺冠。像魔术师一样，伯德也拥有优秀的队友，主要是凯文·麦克海尔(Kevin McHale)和罗伯特·帕里什(Robert Parish)。
马刺球迷希望文班有朝一日能够挑战迈克尔·乔丹(Michael Jordan)和勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)的历史最佳球员地位。乔丹和詹姆斯都为他们的第一个总冠军等待了很长时间。乔丹在大学效力三年后于1991年加入公牛队，但直到他27岁，也就是他的第七个赛季才赢得总冠军。即使在那时，他也是在另一位NBA75大球员斯科蒂·皮蓬(Scottie Pippen)加入球队后才夺冠。
詹姆斯在2003年高中毕业后直接加入联盟，并立即成为一名球星。然而，尽管在骑士队获得了多个MVP奖项，他直到2012年加入热火队与德维恩·韦德(Dwyane Wade)和克里斯·波什(Chris Bosh)联手后才赢得他的第一个总冠军。即使是那支超级球队，也在2011年的第一次总决赛中输给了小牛队，然后在2012年才击败了一支过于年轻的雷霆队，在2013年险胜马刺队，然后在2014年的“救赎之战”总决赛中被同一支马刺队击溃——之后詹姆斯便匆匆回到了克利夫兰。
说到马刺队，伟大的蒂姆·邓肯(Tim Duncan)在1997年加入了马刺队（在维克森林大学效力四年后）。他在23岁，也就是他的第二个赛季，与大卫·罗宾逊(David Robinson)联手赢得了他的第一个总冠军。在他职业生涯中与他竞争最佳球员的沙奎尔·奥尼尔(Shaquille O’Neal)和科比·布莱恩特(Kobe Bryant)，都需要另一位伟大球员才能在2000年为湖人队赢得他们的第一个总冠军。当时，奥尼尔已经28岁，正处于他的第七个赛季，而科比21岁，正处于他的第四个赛季。当然，他们彼此拥有，并且都在名人堂教练菲尔·杰克逊(Phil Jackson)的执教下。
除了不老的詹姆斯之外，所有这些球员都已经退役了。现役的NBA历史前十二名候选人包括斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)、扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)（我只尝试拼写一次）和尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)。库里在大学三年后，于他26岁，也就是在联盟的第五个赛季赢得了他的第一个总冠军，字母哥在他26岁，也就是他的第七个赛季赢得了他的第一个总冠军，而约基奇在他28岁，也就是他的第九个赛季赢得了他的第一个总冠军。
我们能从这次NBA伟大球员的记忆之旅中学到什么？首先，如果一位伟大球员想在25岁之前赢得NBA总冠军，他们需要与另一位名人堂级别的球员联手。贾巴尔拥有奥斯卡·罗伯特森(Oscar Robertson)，魔术师拥有贾巴尔，伟大的邓肯拥有罗宾逊，科比拥有奥尼尔。如果球员没有那么幸运，他通常需要等待五到七年（或更长时间！）才能赢得总冠军，而这通常发生在球员26-30岁的时候。
由于马刺队还没有第二个“伟大”的球员，他们目前缓慢而稳健的建队方法似乎是正确的。他们确实有几个非常年轻的球员，显然可以在一支NBA冠军球队中担任首发——德文·瓦塞尔(Devin Vassell)、杰里米·索汉(Jeremy Sochan)和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephen Castle)。当文班达到他的巅峰期时，他们都将处于他们的黄金时期。凭借他们储备的选秀权，可以用来选择其他年轻球员或进行交易，马刺队完全有能力利用他们这一代的天赋，在可预见的未来获得球队的第六个，甚至更多总冠军。为了我们的目的，让我们将“可预见的未来”定义为几年之内，并且在文班20多岁的时候。这给了球队一个很大的窗口期去赢得那些总冠军。
点击查看原文：Predicting when Victor Wembanyama could deliver the Spurs’ 6th championship
Predicting when Victor Wembanyama could deliver the Spurs’ 6th championship
History tells us about how long it has taken all-time greats to win championships and why.
I know of the strict rule against any Christmas references before Thanksgiving, and I fully support the rule. I can also wait another two weeks before hearing “Grandma Got Run Over by a Reindeer” (performed by the immortal Elmo Shropshire) and other holiday classics.
However, when Victor Wembanyama recently had three consecutive games with six or more three-pointers, many Spurs fans (including me) had visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads. During those visions, I tried to figure out what a sugar plum is. According to Wikipedia:
Sugar plums are a type of dragée or other hard candy made into small round or oval shapes.The ‘plum’ in the name of these confections does not always mean plum in the sense of the fruit, but rather their small size and spherical or oval shape. Traditional sugar plums often contained no fruit, instead being made mostly of pure sugar.
Wow, sugar plums sound dreadful, and I immediately stopped having sugar plum visions. But Victor’s three-game stretch made me consider another question: Can we look at the history of great NBA players to determine a reasonable timeline for Victor to lead the Spurs to their sixth championship?
For this exercise, I looked at true NBA greats, players who were at some point considered the best player in the league and who would make most lists of the top dozen or so players in NBA history. Let’s go chronologically.
Bill Russell won his first NBA championship in his first year in the league, starting a streak of 11 championships in 13 years. Russell was just 22 years old when he won his first championship, but the odds of any team dominating the present NBA as Russell’s Celtics did is virtually zero. The NBA had only eight teams back then, including squads from Rochester, Syracuse and Fort Wayne, Indiana. That means we can’t learn much from Russell’s experience.
The next player on all the top ten lists is Wilt Chamberlin, who lost to Russell in many of the Celtic championship runs. Wilt finally broke through in 1967 with the 76ers — his eighth season in the league when he was 29 years old. Another great player in that era, Jerry West, did not win a championship until he teamed up with Wilt on the 1971-1972 Lakers, when West was 34 and in his twelfth season.
The next truly great player was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. After four years at UCLA (and three NCAA championships in his three varsity seasons), Kareem won his first NBA championship with the Bucks in his third NBA season, at age 24. As I have written here earlier, Victor’s training regimen and body-type make me hopeful that he can match Kareem’s longevity and productivity. We already know that Victor will make more three-pointers. Kareem made only one in his career:
Kareem also played a big role in the next great player’s first NBA championship — Magic Johnson. Magic broke the mold by winning a championship as a 20-year old rookie in what might have been his best game ever — 42 points, 15 boards and 7 assists in a clinching Game Six in Philadelphia. Kareem, the MVP that season, missed that game with a badly sprained ankle. He later became the oldest NBA Finals MVP at 38 years old when the Lakers finally vanquished the Celtics in 1985.
Magic’s primary rival, Larry Bird, also won his first championship early in his career. Bird won in his second season while 24 years old. Like Magic, Bird was blessed with excellent teammates, primarily Kevin McHale and Robert Parish.
Spurs’ fans hope Victor will someday challenge Michael Jordan and LeBron James as the best player in NBA history. Both MJ and Lebron had a long wait for their first crown. MJ joined the league with the Bulls in 1991 after three years in college, but did not win a crown until his seventh year, at 27 years old. Even then, he did not win until fellow NBA top-75 player Scottie Pippin was also on the team.
LeBron joined the league in 2003 straight out of high school and became an immediate star. However, despite several MVP awards with the Cavs, he did not win his first championship until 2012 after he joined with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on the Heat. Even that super team then lost in their first Finals to the Mavs in 2011 before beating a way-too-young OKC team in 2012, barely beating the Spurs in 2013, and then were crushed by the identical Spurs team in the Redemption Finals in 2014 — after which LeBron high-tailed it back to Cleveland.
Speaking of the Spurs, the Great Tim Duncan joined the Spurs in 1997 (after four years at Wake Forest). He won his first crown by teaming with David Robinson in TD’s second season at 23 years old. His rivals for best player in the game during his career, Shaq and Kobe, each needed the other great player to win their first championship for the Lakers in 2000. At the time, Shaq was already 28 and in his seventh season, while Kobe was 21 and in his fourth season Of course, each had the other and were on a team coached by Hall of Famer Phil Jackson.
Other than the ageless LeBron, all of these players have retired. Active candidates for top-12 status include Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo (which I will only attempt to spell once) and Nikola Jokic. Curry won his first crown after three years of college in his fifth year in the league when he was 26 years old, Giannis won his first in his seventh season at 26 and Joker won in his ninth season at 28 years old.
What can we learn from this trip down NBA Great Player Memory Lane? First, if a great player wants to win an NBA championship before they are 25 years old, they need to team up with another Hall-of-Fame player. Kareem had Oscar Robertson, Magic with Kareem, the Great Duncan with Robinson, Kobe with Shaq. If the player is not so lucky, he generally has to wait five to seven years (or more!) to win it all, and that generally happens when the player is 26-30 years old.
Because the Spurs don’t yet have that second “great” player, their present slow and steady approach to team building seems correct. And they do have several very young players who clearly can be starters on an NBA champion — Devin Vassel, Jeremy Sochan and Stephen Castle. All will be in their prime when Victor hits his. With their store of draft picks, which can be used on either other young players or in trades, the Spurs are well positioned to take advantage of their generational talent and get the team’s sixth crown, or more, in the foreseeable future. For our purposes, let’s define “foreseeable future” as in several years and while Victor is in his 20s. This gives the team a wide window to win those crowns.
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock