By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2024-11-18 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
每个NBA球队在新赛季开始时都会制定计划，以更好地实现他们的目标。但并非所有球队都能成功执行。
常规赛进行了一个月，是时候看看各球队在执行一些最重要策略方面的表现如何了。在某些情况下，比如克利夫兰骑士队的开局不败，或金州勇士队依靠深度轮换取得西部最佳战绩之一，很明显事情进展顺利。但一些球队仍然没有看到他们赛季初的优先事项取得成功。
密尔沃基雄鹿队正在努力回到东部季后赛的行列中，而明尼苏达森林狼队和纽约尼克斯队在季前赛的重磅交易后开局缓慢。
而费城76人队，在东部竞争中落后，可能会危及他们执行管理乔尔·恩比德和保罗·乔治上场时间以着眼季后赛的计划的能力。
让我们分析数据，并对几支NBA顶级球队如何处理他们在2024-25赛季开始时优先考虑的事项进行评分。
跳转到球队：
CLE | DAL | DEN | GS | LAL
MIL | MIN | NY | PHI | SA
克利夫兰骑士队：让四大核心球员协同作战
评分：A
休赛期与贾莱特·阿伦(Jarrett Allen)和多诺万·米切尔(Donovan Mitchell)的续约表明：骑士队将努力让这套阵容发挥作用，尽管上赛季的证据表明阿伦和米切尔分别与埃文·莫布里(Evan Mobley)和达柳斯·加兰(Darius Garland)难以共存。
在讨论中被忽略的是，虽然克利夫兰最好的四名球员上赛季在一起表现不佳——根据NBA高级数据统计，每100回合只比对手多得2.2分——但在2022-23赛季情况并非如此，当时他们的净效率值为+8.8，最终取得了东部第二好的净胜分。
特别是加兰，在完全健康的状态下表现得更好，克利夫兰本赛季又回到了同样的成功模式。骑士队四名最佳球员在场上的净效率值几乎与两个赛季前相同（每100回合+8.8分）。
在很多方面，新教练肯尼·阿特金森(Kenny Atkinson)将2022-23赛季的成功之处（首发阵容）与上赛季拯救骑士队的混合首发和替补球员的出色表现结合了起来。
由于他们球星的技能重叠，克利夫兰的最佳阵容仍然以米切尔控球后卫（根据我对NBA高级数据统计的阵容数据分析，在周日比赛前的96分钟内净效率值为+29.0）和莫布里中锋（在周日之前的203分钟内净效率值为+18.4）为特色。但骑士队让这四个人在一起打球的表现也足够好，达到了联盟最佳水平。
达拉斯独行侠队：团队式的防守
评分：A-
在失去防守悍将德里克·琼斯二世(Derrick Jones Jr.)并用克莱·汤普森(Klay Thompson)取代他在首发阵容中的位置后，独行侠队知道他们的外线防守会受到打击，但他们有信心仍然可以取得成功。主教练贾森·基德(Jason Kidd)在媒体日开玩笑说，球星卢卡·东契奇(Luka Dončić)将成为达拉斯新的防守王牌。
独行侠队的防守并不是他们.500胜率开局的原因。达拉斯的防守效率排名上升到第六位，比上赛季提高了12位，尽管不如独行侠队晋级分区决赛时的水平。（相对于对手的常规赛表现，达拉斯的调整后防守效率排名第五。）
相反，尽管汤普森开局强劲，但独行侠队的进攻并没有达到预期。由于东契奇目前的表现低于MVP水平，而且达拉斯除了凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)之外的其他射手三分球命中率都不高，独行侠队的进攻效率与上赛季相同，排名第八。
如果投篮状态回暖，达拉斯的防守看起来足够好，可以在常规赛期间支撑他们。P·J·华盛顿(P.J. Washington)已经接受了防守顶级得分手的挑战。根据Second Spectrum的追踪数据，华盛顿对位球员的平均赛季使用率为23%，高于去年在独行侠队效力时的21%，当时琼斯（24%）通常防守高使用率的对手。
丹佛掘金队：替补老将KCP
评分：B-
丹佛的故事情节很明确：掘金队将如何取代肯塔维奥斯·考德威尔-波普(Kentavious Caldwell-Pope)，他是2023年总冠军球队和去年那支追平NBA时代球队纪录57胜的球队中的关键首发球员？掘金队总经理卡尔文·布斯(Calvin Booth)相信最近的选秀球员克里斯蒂安·布劳恩(Christian Braun)、朱利安·斯特劳瑟(Julian Strawther)和佩顿·沃森(Peyton Watson)可以共同填补空缺，这是ESPN的拉莫纳·谢尔本(Ramona Shelburne)最近报道的与主教练迈克尔·马龙(Michael Malone)持续紧张关系的一部分原因。
当丹佛以2胜3负开局，两场胜利都是加时战胜2024年乐透球队（布鲁克林篮网队、多伦多猛龙队）时，这个计划看起来有缺陷。掘金队此后已经取得了五连胜，包括在主场险胜达拉斯和俄克拉荷马城雷霆队。
布劳恩，考德威尔-波普在首发五人组中的替代者，整个赛季都表现强劲。他的三分球命中率为44.7%，尽管出手次数有限（场均3.2次，而考德威尔-波普上赛季场均4.1次）。丹佛队重新打造的首发五人组在出场至少100分钟的阵容中拥有NBA第二高的净效率值（每100回合+14.9分）。
掘金队早期的薄弱环节——替补席已经稳定下来。斯特劳瑟38.3%的三分球命中率只是平均水平，但对于排名三分球出手次数垫底的丹佛队来说，他每36分钟6.5次的出手次数非常重要。与此同时，沃森很好地填补了受伤的阿隆·戈登(Aaron Gordon)的空缺，在戈登因右小腿拉伤倒下后的前五场比赛中得分上双。
掘金队的模式仍然过于依赖尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)的MVP级表现，正如本周末没有他时的背靠背失利所证明的那样。但考德威尔-波普也可能是这样，他在奥兰多魔术队的开局很慢，目前的三分球命中率只有23%。
金州勇士队：12人轮换阵容
评分：A
所有教练在赛季开始前都喜欢球队的深度。史蒂夫·科尔(Steve Kerr)是认真的。勇士队本赛季每场比赛都至少使用了11名球员，是迄今为止唯一这样做的NBA球队。而且效果非常好。每个金州球员都有正的净效率值。
问题是科尔能坚持多久。
伤病显然会削弱勇士队的板凳深度。金州已经失去了首发后卫德安东尼·梅尔顿(De’Anthony Melton)，他左膝前交叉韧带扭伤。这仅仅意味着后卫林迪·沃特斯三世(Lindy Waters III)将获得更多上场时间，他在上个月斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)缺席的情况下替补出场得到21分。科尔能否在季后赛中给这么多球员有意义的上场时间，这是值得怀疑的。
自1996-97赛季以来，只有一支打进首轮后的球队场均使用11名球员超过5分钟：67胜的2015-16赛季圣安东尼奥马刺队，他们以10人轮换为特色，还有博班·马里亚诺维奇(Boban Marjanovic)、凯文·马丁(Kevin Martin)和安德烈·米勒(Andre Miller)等人的各种客串出场。圣安东尼奥在首轮横扫了缺兵少将的孟菲斯灰熊队，然后被雷霆队爆冷击败，后者随后在令人难忘的西部决赛七场大战中输给了勇士队。
当然，科尔也使用过很多大轮换阵容。在金州夺得2017年总冠军的季后赛中，场均有10.2名球员上场超过5分钟，这得益于大比分胜利。前一年，勇士队经常使用10.1名球员，尽管在总决赛第七场输给骑士队的比赛中只有8名球员上场。
那些球队比今年的勇士队有更大的容错空间，这可能会迫使科尔在某个时候缩减他的轮换阵容。
由于本赛季的阵容深度，斯蒂芬·库里和勇士队接近西部榜首。 Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
洛杉矶湖人队：戴维斯冲击MVP
评分：A-
严格来说，这句话是在本月早些时候，湖人队击败费城76人队之后说的。但当被问及他对安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)本赛季的目标是什么时，湖人队新教练J·J·雷迪克(J.J. Redick)回答说：“赢得MVP。”
在一个约基奇继续打出MVP水平，扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)、谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)和杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)都开局强劲的赛季中，戴维斯想要获得这个奖项将很困难。然而，戴维斯已经把自己列入了考虑范围，他的效率自2019-20赛季MVP投票排名第六以来达到了最高水平，当时湖人队赢得了总冠军。
即使勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)上周连续四场三双开始展现自己的实力，戴维斯的回合占有率仍然是全队最高的32%，这是他NBA生涯第二高的。由于58%的二分球命中率和职业生涯最高的场均11次罚球，戴维斯的效率从未如此之高。
考虑到戴维斯的表现可能是雷迪克对湖人队阵容做出的最佳改变之一，该阵容与上赛季相比几乎没有变化，正如ESPN的戴夫·麦克梅纳明(Dave McMenamin)和马特·威廉姆斯(Matt Williams)上周详细描述的那样。
密尔沃基雄鹿队：与利拉德和里弗斯的连续性
评分：D
由于除了底薪签约外，今年夏天无法重塑他们的阵容，雄鹿队指望达米安·利拉德(Damian Lillard)作为控球后卫和多克·里弗斯(Doc Rivers)作为教练的第二个赛季的变革力量。利拉德在训练营开始前被交易到密尔沃基的阵容中，而里弗斯则在赛季中期接替了阿德里安·格里芬(Adrian Griffin)。
利拉德的结果是积极的。他的二分球命中率为55%，高于一年前的49%，尽管还没有完全回到利拉德在波特兰开拓者队的最后一个赛季创下的职业生涯最佳57%的二分球命中率。利拉德的回合占有率也上升了，在最近雄鹿队在没有阿德托昆博的情况下给克利夫兰带来惊吓的比赛中，他得到了36分（尽管有8次失误）。
利拉德的反弹不足以阻止密尔沃基以2胜8负开局。在迈克·布登霍尔泽(Mike Budenholzer)作为教练的最后一个赛季，雄鹿队的防守效率排名从第四位下降到上赛季的第19位，而本赛季的防守效率只略有提高。由于缺乏高质量的侧翼防守球员，加上利拉德担任控球后卫，人员配置与朱·霍勒迪(Jrue Holiday)在阵容中时不同，但密尔沃基希望有一个更好的开局。
值得称赞的是，里弗斯开始找到更多可行的侧翼轮换阵容，在克里斯·米德尔顿(Khris Middleton)缺席的情况下弥补了球队缺乏攻防兼备的角色球员的不足。A·J·格林(AJ Green)的投篮为进攻打开了局面，这帮助雄鹿队在利拉德因脑震荡协议缺席的情况下取得了胜利，在周六输给夏洛特之前战胜了多伦多和底特律。
尽管如此，除了阿德托昆博的统治力之外，目前几乎没有证据表明密尔沃基能够争夺总冠军。
明尼苏达森林狼队：通过交易提升阵容深度
评分：B
重新评估森林狼队用卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)交易唐特·迪温琴佐(Donte DiVincenzo)和朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle)的决定的挑战之一是，我们无法看到明尼苏达的2024-25赛季如果留下唐斯会是什么样子。之前，我的基于数据的胜率预测概述了对森林狼队能否重现2024年晋级分区决赛的担忧。
其中最主要的是明尼苏达的外线深度，迪温琴佐的到来解决了这一需求。由于森林狼队的轮换阵容几乎完全健康，我们看到新秀罗伯·迪林厄姆(Rob Dillingham)和特伦斯·香农二世(Terrence Shannon Jr.)以及老将乔·英格尔斯(Joe Ingles)的出场时间总共不到100分钟。
当迪林厄姆在背靠背的第二场比赛中，由于首发控球后卫迈克·康利(Mike Conley)缺席而被迫进入轮换阵容时，早期的回报并不理想。迪林厄姆在9分钟内出现3次失误，明尼苏达在这段时间内以13分之差输给了波特兰开拓者队，比分为98-106。
迪温琴佐的投篮还没有达到预期，在他频繁的三分球出手中（每36分钟9.9次），只有32%的命中率，而在前两个赛季与尼克斯队和勇士队的比赛中，他的三分球命中率为40%。然而，森林狼队的替补席一直是一个优势。他们的首发五人组每100回合只比对手多得3.7分，康利（真实投篮命中率.479）的得分效率要低得多，这才是他们挣扎的原因。
纽约尼克斯队：唐斯填补中锋空缺
评分：C
与明尼苏达的交易的另一方也类似，我们不知道如果纽约没有得到唐斯，尼克斯队在杰里科·西姆斯(Jericho Sims)作为他们唯一健康的NBA经验中锋的情况下会如何表现。休赛期以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因(Isaiah Hartenstein)的离开，加上米切尔·罗宾逊(Mitchell Robinson)因手术而缺席，在中锋位置上留下了一个巨大的空缺，尼克斯队试图用唐斯来填补这个空缺。
很明显的是，纽约的防守目前还没有与他融合。他未来在护框方面取得更大的成功是不可避免的。根据NBA高级数据统计中Second Spectrum的追踪数据，当唐斯作为主要防守者时，对手在5英尺内的投篮命中率高达85.5%。
然而，一个好的经验法则是：数据越令人震惊，它继续发生的可能性就越小。在摄像机追踪时代，一个赛季至少每场比赛防守5次出手的最高纪录是凯文·乐福(Kevin Love)在2019-20赛季的对手命中率为72%，而唐斯自己的护框记录要好得多。
更大的担忧可能是尼克斯队放弃了多少底角三分球。纽约每100回合允许对手出手12.2次底角三分，是NBA中最多的，比2023-24常规赛的11.1次有所增加。根据Second Spectrum的量化投篮质量指标（qSQ），这些出手是尼克斯队对手拥有联盟第六轻松的投篮机会的一个重要原因，该指标考虑了投篮的位置、类型和与附近防守者的距离。
费城76人队：让恩比德和乔治健康地进入季后赛
评分：B
正如ESPN的蒂姆·邦坦普斯(Tim Bontemps)在训练营期间详细介绍的那样，费城进入赛季的重点是管理球星乔尔·恩比德和保罗·乔治的上场时间，以确保他们在季后赛中保持健康，因为恩比德有在季后赛带伤作战的记录。在2胜10负的开局之后，问题是76人队能否自信地认为他们在恩比德和乔治全职出场的情况下能够进入季后赛。
目前，由于东部竞争激烈程度较低，答案是肯定的。
平均而言，使用ESPN的篮球实力指数（BPI）进行的模拟显示，东部第七名的球队将赢得38场比赛，这意味着需要39场胜利才能排名前六并避开附加赛。为了达到这个目标，费城在接下来的比赛中必须取得36胜34负的战绩。即使恩比德，可能还有乔治，缺席背靠背的比赛，全明星后卫泰瑞斯·马克西(Tyrese Maxey)仍然因腿筋受伤缺席，这也是有可能的。
76人队在45%的BPI模拟中直接晋级季后赛。如果球队继续挖坑，在某个时候，费城有可能不得不重新考虑他们的想法。特别是考虑到恩比德伤病史的偶然性，其中包括上赛季的眼眶骨折和贝尔氏麻痹症，仅仅缺席背靠背的比赛并不能保证他在季后赛的健康。然而，就目前而言，76人队可以安心地坚持他们的季前计划。
76人队的计划？让保罗·乔治和乔尔·恩比德在季后赛保持健康。 Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
圣安东尼奥马刺队：为文班创造成功的条件
评分：C
在维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)令人印象深刻的年度最佳新秀赛季首秀之后，圣安东尼奥将休赛期的重点放在了为他配备更多经验丰富的球员上。最值得注意的是，马刺队引进了名人堂控球后卫克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)作为文班的导师和组织者。
部分原因是替补控球后卫特雷·琼斯(Tre Jones)自揭幕战以来就没有上场，这并没有真正实现。文班实际上得到的助攻次数更少了（68%的投篮命中来自助攻，低于一年前的74%），而且根据Second Spectrum的qSQ衡量，他的投篮难度也更大了。
正如我上周指出的那样，这部分是由于杰里米·索汉(Jeremy Sochan)的爆发，使得文班在内线的空间变小了。但自从索汉在首发阵容中被体型更小的斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)取代后，他的投篮质量并没有太大变化。相反，文班的投篮命中率有所提高。作为一名新秀，文班的量化投篮指数（qSI）——他的实际有效投篮命中率与他的qSQ之间的差值——在至少100次投篮的球员中排名第56位。本赛季，这一数字跃升至第79位。
维克多·文班亚马一直在与老将克里斯·保罗培养球场上的默契。 David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images特别是，文班亚马突然开发出了NBA级别的三分球射程。在前九场比赛中，文班亚马的三分球命中率只有23%，他频繁的出手次数（场均6.9次）正成为争论的焦点。悄无声息地，文班亚马在罚球线上取得了进步，他的罚球命中率达到了87%，而新秀赛季的罚球命中率为80%——这有时（尽管并非总是）预示着未来三分球命中率的提高。
文班亚马上周的表现，包括在一场职业生涯50+分的比赛中16投8中的三分球表现，展示了当三分球开始命中时他所能带来的难以防守的程度。
当然，文班亚马不会继续保持他在那三场比赛中投中20记三分球时54%的三分球命中率。但如果文班亚马即使成为一名联盟平均水平的三分球射手，他空位出手的能力也将使他成为一名进攻力量，并配合他改变比赛的防守。到那时，谁来为文班亚马组织进攻可能就成了次要问题。
点击查看原文：Grading early-season priorities and plans for 10 key NBA teams
Grading early-season priorities and plans for 10 key NBA teams
Every NBA team comes into the new season with plans for how to better reach their goals. Not all of them manage to execute.
A month into the regular season, it’s time to look at how well teams have executed some of their most important strategies. In some cases, such as the Cleveland Cavaliers’ undefeated start or the Golden State Warriors riding a deep rotation to one of the Western Conference’s best records, it’s clear things are working out. But some teams still haven’t seen their early-season priorities take off.
The Milwaukee Bucks are scraping to get back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture, while the Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks are off to slow starts after their preseason blockbuster trade.
And the Philadelphia 76ers, who are falling behind in the East race, might jeopardize their ability to follow through on a plan to manage Joel Embiid and Paul George with an eye toward the postseason.
Let’s break down the numbers and grade how well several of the NBA’s top teams are handling what they prioritized coming into the 2024-25 season.
Jump to a team:\
CLE | DAL | DEN | GS | LAL\
MIL | MIN | NY | PHI | SA
Cleveland Cavaliers: Getting the big four to work together
Grade: A
Extensions for Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell this offseason made it clear: The Cavaliers were going to try to make it work despite last season’s evidence that Allen and Mitchell struggled to coexist with Evan Mobley and Darius Garland, respectively.
Overlooked in that discussion was that while Cleveland’s best four players didn’t perform well together last season – outscoring opponents by just 2.2 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats – the same was not true in 2022-23, when they had a plus-8.8 net rating en route to the second-best point differential in the East.
With Garland, in particular, performing much better at full health, Cleveland is back to that same kind of success this season. The Cavaliers’ net rating with their four best players on the court is almost identical to two seasons ago (plus-8.8 points per 100 possessions).
In many ways, new coach Kenny Atkinson has married what worked in 2022-23 (the starters) with what saved the Cavaliers last season in strong production from units mixing starters and reserves.
Because of the overlapping skill sets of their stars, Cleveland’s best lineups have still featured Mitchell at point guard (plus-29.0 net rating in 96 minutes going into Sunday’s game, per my analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats) and Mobley at center (plus-18.4 in 203 minutes ahead of Sunday). But the Cavaliers have done well enough with all four together to make things work at a league-best level.
Dallas Mavericks: Perimeter defense by committee
Grade: A-
After losing stopper Derrick Jones Jr. and replacing him in the starting lineup with Klay Thompson, the Mavericks knew their perimeter defense would take a hit but were confident it could still be successful. Coach Jason Kidd joked at media day that star Luka Doncic would be Dallas’ new ace defender.
The Mavericks’ defense hasn’t been the reason for their .500 start. Dallas is up to sixth in defensive rating, 12 spots better than last season, albeit not quite as good as during the Mavericks’ run to the conference finals. (Dallas ranked fifth in adjusted defensive rating relative to their opponents’ regular-season performance.)
Instead, it’s the Mavericks’ offense that hasn’t lived up to the hype despite Thompson’s strong start. With Doncic performing at a sub-MVP level thus far and Dallas’ other shooters besides Kyrie Irving struggling from beyond the arc, the Mavericks rank an identical eighth in offensive rating as compared to last season.
If and when the shooting comes around, Dallas’ D looks good enough to support it during the regular season. P.J. Washington has stepped up to the challenge of defending top scorers. According to data from Second Spectrum tracking, Washington’s matchups have an average season-long usage rate of 23%, up from 21% last year with the Mavs when Jones (24%) typically defended high-usage opponents.
Denver Nuggets: Replacing a key veteran in KCP
Grade: B-
The storyline in Denver was clear: How would the Nuggets replace Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a key starter on both the 2023 title team and last year’s group that tied the NBA-era franchise record with 57 wins? Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth’s confidence that recent draft picks Christian Braun, Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson could jointly fill the void was some part of the ongoing tension with coach Michael Malone that ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne reported on recently.
When Denver started 2-3, with both wins in overtime against 2024 lottery teams (Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors), that plan looked flawed. The Nuggets have righted the ship since with a five-game winning streak, including close home victories over Dallas and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Braun, Caldwell-Pope’s replacement in the starting five, has been strong all season. He is hitting 44.7% of his 3s, albeit on limited volume (3.2 attempts per game as compared to 4.1 for Caldwell-Pope last season). And Denver’s remade starting five has the NBA’s second-best net rating (plus-14.9 points per 100 possessions) among lineups that have played at least 100 minutes.
The bench, the Nuggets’ early issue, has stabilized. Strawther’s 38.3% 3-point shooting is only average, but his 6.5 attempts per 36 minutes are important for a Denver team that ranks last in 3-point volume. Meanwhile, Watson has filled in well for the injured Aaron Gordon with double figures in the first five games since Gordon went down with a right calf strain.
The Nuggets’ formula still relies too heavily on MVP-caliber play from Nikola Jokic, as evidenced by back-to-back losses this weekend without him. But that also might have been true of Caldwell-Pope, who is off to a slow start with the Orlando Magic, shooting just 23% from 3 thus far.
Golden State Warriors: Playing a 12-man rotation
Grade: A
All coaches love their team’s depth ahead of the season. Steve Kerr was serious about it. The Warriors have used at least 11 players in every game this season, the only NBA team to do so thus far. And it’s working to perfection. Every single Golden State player has a positive net rating.
The question is how long Kerr can keep it going.
Injuries will obviously cut into the Warriors’ bench. Already, Golden State has lost starting guard De’Anthony Melton to a left ACL sprain. That simply means more minutes for guard Lindy Waters III, who had a 21-point game off the bench with Stephen Curry sidelined last month. It’s fair to wonder whether Kerr can give meaningful minutes to so many players into the postseason.
Since 1996-97, only one team that played beyond the first round has used an average of 11 players per game for more than five minutes: the 67-win 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs, who featured a 10-man rotation with a variety of cameos from the likes of Boban Marjanovic, Kevin Martin and Andre Miller. San Antonio swept the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies in the opening round before being upset by the Thunder, who subsequently lost to the Warriors in a memorable seven-game Western Conference finals.
Certainly, Kerr has played his share of large rotations. Fueled by blowouts, an average of 10.2 players per game saw more than five minutes in the postseason during Golden State’s run to the 2017 title. The previous year, the Warriors played 10.1 players that often, albeit just eight in the Game 7 loss to the Cavaliers in the Finals.
Those teams had more margin for error than this year’s Warriors, which might force Kerr to tighten his rotation a bit at some point.
Stephen Curry and the Warriors are near the top of the West due to their depth this season. Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
Los Angeles Lakers: Davis to make an MVP case
Grade: A-
Technically, this quote came earlier this month, after the Lakers beat the Philadelphia 76ers. But new Lakers coach JJ Redick was asked what his goal was for Anthony Davis coming into the season, and he responded, “to win MVP.”
It will be difficult for Davis to earn the award in a season in which Jokic continues to play at an MVP level and Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum are all off to strong starts. Yet Davis has put his name in consideration, producing at his highest rate since finishing sixth in MVP voting in 2019-20, when the Lakers won the championship.
Even as LeBron James has begun to assert himself with four consecutive triple-doubles last week, Davis’ usage rate remains a team-high 32%, the second best of his NBA career. And Davis’ efficiency has never been better thanks to 58% 2-point shooting and a career-high 11 free throw attempts per game.
Consider Davis’ production perhaps the best of the changes Redick has made to a Lakers roster that had little turnover from last season, as detailed last week by ESPN’s Dave McMenamin and Matt Williams.
Milwaukee Bucks: Continuity with Lillard and Rivers
Grade: D
Absent the ability to remake their roster with anything but minimum signings this summer, the Bucks were counting on the transformative power of a second season with Damian Lillard at point guard and Doc Rivers as coach. Lillard was dropped into Milwaukee’s lineup just before training camp, while Rivers took over for Adrian Griffin midseason.
The results for Lillard have been positive. He’s making 55% of his 2-point attempts, up from 49% a year ago, albeit not quite back to the career-best 57% Lillard shot inside the arc during his final season with the Portland Trail Blazers. Lillard’s usage rate has ticked up too, and he had 36 points (albeit with eight turnovers) as the Bucks gave Cleveland a scare without Antetokounmpo recently.
Lillard’s bounce-back wasn’t enough to prevent Milwaukee from starting 2-8. The Bucks have improved only marginally on defense after dropping from fourth in defensive rating in Mike Budenholzer’s final season as coach to 19th last season. With few quality wing defenders and Lillard at point guard, the personnel isn’t what it was with Jrue Holiday on the roster, but Milwaukee hoped for a better start.
To Rivers’ credit, he’s starting to find more workable rotations on the wing, compensating for the team’s lack of two-way role players with Khris Middleton sidelined. AJ Green’s shooting has opened things up offensively, which helped the Bucks survive Lillard’s absence in the concussion protocol, earning wins over Toronto and Detroit before Saturday’s loss in Charlotte.
Still, there is currently little evidence outside of Antetokounmpo’s dominance that Milwaukee can contend for a title.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Improved depth with trade
Grade: B
One of the challenges of regrading the Timberwolves’ decision to trade Karl-Anthony Towns for Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle is we can’t see how Minnesota’s 2024-25 season might have gone with Towns. Previously, my stats-based wins projections had outlined reasons for concern about the Timberwolves repeating their 2024 run to the conference finals.
Chief among those was Minnesota’s perimeter depth, a need addressed with DiVincenzo. Because the Timberwolves’ rotation has been almost entirely healthy, we’ve seen fewer than 100 combined minutes from rookies Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. and veteran Joe Ingles.
When Dillingham was forced into the rotation with starting point guard Mike Conley sidelined Wednesday in the second game of a back-to-back, the early returns weren’t great. Dillingham had three turnovers in nine minutes and Minnesota was outscored by 13 in that span in a 106-98 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.
DiVincenzo has yet to shoot the ball as expected, making just 32% of his frequent 3-point attempts (9.9 per 36 minutes) after shooting 40% over the previous two seasons with the Knicks and Warriors. Yet the Timberwolves’ bench has been a strength. It’s their starting five, which is outscoring opponents by just 3.7 points per 100 possessions with Conley (.479 true shooting percentage) scoring far less efficiently, which has struggled.
New York Knicks: Towns fills hole at center
Grade: C
Something similar is true on the flip side of the trade with Minnesota, where we don’t know how the Knicks might have played with Jericho Sims as their only healthy center with NBA experience had New York not acquired Towns. The offseason departure of Isaiah Hartenstein, plus surgery that has kept Mitchell Robinson on the sidelines, left a gaping hole at center, which the Knicks sought to fill with Towns.
What’s clear is the New York defense hasn’t worked thus far with him. It’s inevitable he’ll have more success protecting the rim going forward. Opponents are shooting an eye-popping 85.5% on attempts inside 5 feet with Towns as the primary defender, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats.
However, a good rule of thumb: The more shocking the stat, the less likely it is to continue. The highest mark over a full season defending at least five shots per game in the camera-tracking era was when opponents shot 72% against Kevin Love in 2019-20, and Towns’ own track record of rim protection is far better.
The bigger concern might be how many corner 3s the Knicks are giving up. New York’s 12.2 allowed per 100 possessions are the most in the NBA, up from 11.1 during the 2023-24 regular season. Those attempts are a big reason Knicks opponents have the sixth-easiest shot diet in the league, per Second Spectrum’s quantified shot quality metric (qSQ), which considers the location and type of shot and distance to nearby defenders.
Philadelphia 76ers: Getting Embiid, George to the playoffs healthy
Grade: B
As detailed by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps during training camp, Philadelphia’s focus entering the season was on managing the minutes of stars Joel Embiid and Paul George to make sure they’d be healthy for the playoffs after Embiid’s track record of playing through postseason maladies. The question after a 2-10 start is whether the 76ers can be confident they’ll be in the postseason with Embiid and George playing full-time.
For now, the answer is yes thanks to the forgiving East.
On average, simulations using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) show the seventh-place team in the East winning 38 games, meaning 39 wins are necessary to finish in the top six and avoid the play-in tournament. To get there, Philly must go 36-34 the rest of the way. That’s plausible even with Embiid, and potentially George, sitting out back-to-backs and All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey still sidelined with a hamstring injury.
The 76ers advance directly to the playoffs in 45% of BPI simulations. At some point, it’s plausible Philadelphia will have to revisit its thinking if the team continues to dig a deeper hole. And particularly given the fluky nature of the Embiid’s injury history, which includes an orbital fracture and Bell’s palsy last season, sitting out back-to-backs alone won’t guarantee his postseason health. For now, however, the Sixers can feel OK sticking with their preseason plan.
The plan of the Sixers? Just have Paul George and Joel Embiid be healthy for the playoffs. Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
San Antonio Spurs: Putting Wemby in position to succeed
Grade: C
After Victor Wembanyama’s impressive Rookie of the Year debut, San Antonio focused its offseason on doing more to surround him with veteran talent. Most notably, the Spurs brought in Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul as both a mentor and setup man for Wembanyama.
In part because backup point guard Tre Jones hasn’t played since opening night, that hasn’t really transpired. Wembanyama is actually being assisted less frequently (68% of his made field goals, down from 74% a year ago) and taking tougher shots as measured by Second Spectrum’s qSQ.
As I noted last week, that was partially due to Jeremy Sochan’s breakout leaving less room for Wembanyama in the paint. But his shot quality hasn’t moved much since Sochan was replaced in the lineup by the smaller Stephon Castle. Instead, Wembanyama’s shot making has improved. As a rookie, Wembanyama’s quantified shot index (qSI) – the difference between his actual effective field goal percentage and his qSQ – ranked in the 56th percentile among players with at least 100 shot attempts. This season, that has jumped to the 79th percentile.
Victor Wembanyama has been developing on-court chemistry with veteran Chris Paul. David Dow/NBAE via Getty ImagesIn particular, Wembanyama has suddenly developed NBA 3-point range. Through his first nine games, Wembanyama was shooting just 23% beyond the arc, and his frequent attempts (6.9 per game) were becoming a source of debate. Quietly, Wembanyama has taken a step forward at the free throw line, where he’s shooting 87% after hitting 80% as a rookie – sometimes (though not always) an indicator of future 3-point improvement.
Wembanyama’s performance last week, including an 8-for-16 night from 3 in the first 50-point game of his career, showed the kind of impossible cover he can be when the 3s start falling.
Surely, Wembanyama won’t continue to make 54% of his long-range attempts as he did while making 20 3s in that three-game stretch. But if Wembanyama becomes even a league-average 3-point shooter, his ability to get off uncontested attempts will make him an offensive force to go with his game-changing defense. By that point, who’s setting up Wembanyama may be a secondary concern.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN