By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2024-11-06 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
2024-25 NBA 赛季两周过后，许多趋势和早期发展已经显现。
卫冕冠军波士顿凯尔特人队和西部热门球队俄克拉荷马城雷霆队正如预期的那样，位居各自联盟的榜首。但也出现了一些令人意外的惊喜。
尽管克莱·汤普森在自由市场离队，并且斯蒂芬·库里缺席了三场比赛，但金州勇士队仍然拥有 NBA 第二好的净胜分（仅次于防守强悍的俄克拉荷马城雷霆队）。
库里的短暂缺席并没有阻止各队以创纪录的速度出手三分球，同时，进攻也受益于比上赛季末更多的哨声。
联盟中一个制造了大量犯规的球员是出人意料的得分王——洛杉矶湖人队的大个子安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)。
与此同时，来自被认为相对较弱的选秀届的新秀们开局缓慢。上赛季的年度最佳新秀维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)也是如此，他上周取得了罕见的5x5数据，但得分效率不如他的新秀赛季。
让我们来看看底层数据和历史记录，评估一下哪些趋势是真实的，哪些可能不会持续到11月以后。
跳转到章节：
更多三分出手？
勇士队能保持火热状态吗？
湖人队 MVP：戴维斯胜过勒布朗？
文班的得分低谷？
犯规回潮？
雷霆队的防守能否创造历史？
新秀们会崛起吗？
西部球队将统治东部球队？
趋势：模仿凯尔特人队？更多球队疯狂出手三分
你的眼睛没有欺骗你：NBA 球队的三分出手次数比以往任何时候都多。在本赛季的前两周，所有出手中有 42% 是三分球，这将超过 2021-22 赛季 40% 的历史最高纪录。这很有趣，因为自 2019-20 赛季以来，在经历了长达数十年的上升趋势后，三分球出手次数基本稳定下来。
凯尔特人队将联盟最高的出手率（常规赛期间 47% 的出手是三分球）转化为总决赛战胜了排名第二的球队（达拉斯独行侠队，44%），这一事实似乎影响了 NBA 其他球队加倍投入三分球。
结论：真实
从历史上看，没有太多证据表明模仿效应会导致更多的三分球出手。在勇士队以联盟第二高的三分球出手率赢得 2022 年总冠军后，我们没有看到这样的影响。相反，联盟的三分球出手次数在接下来的赛季反而下降了。
尽管如此，这种趋势很可能会持续下去。NBA 历史上只有一次，联盟的三分球出手率从现在到常规赛结束变化超过 1.5 个百分点。所以，准备好迎接新的三分球出手纪录吧。
趋势：勇士队将继续以较大优势获胜
有四支球队的场均净胜分达到两位数，并且与净胜分第五好的球队（萨克拉门托国王队，场均 +4.3 分）之间存在巨大差距。其中三支球队在意料之中：凯尔特人队和雷霆队在我的数据预测中名列前茅，而克利夫兰骑士队排名第四。
这就使得金州勇士队成为了一个异类。勇士队在我的模型中有一个不错但并非特别出色的胜场预测（平均 44.8 胜），在 ESPN BET 的胜负盘总数也较为温和，为 43.5 胜。然而，尽管失去了与独行侠队配合良好的汤普森，金州勇士队还是取得了与 2021-22 赛季（勇士队上次夺冠的赛季）相同的 6 胜 1 负的开局。
结论：可能不真实
对金州勇士队的开局持怀疑态度有多个理由。根据 ESPN 的篮球实力指数，勇士队目前为止的赛程是 NBA 中最轻松的。一支平均水平的球队在考虑到主客场和休息因素后，对阵金州勇士队的对手会有 60% 的胜率；没有其他球队的赛程轻松度超过 57.5%。这最终会得到平衡。勇士队对手的投篮命中率也是如此。
对手对阵金州勇士队的三分球命中率低至 28%，为联盟最低。这不可能持续下去。在过去的二十年里，没有任何一支球队在整个赛季中对手的三分球命中率低于 31%。勇士队到目前为止的表现足以让他们被认为是西部前四名的热门球队。但要与俄克拉荷马城雷霆队一起保持在联盟榜首似乎不太可能。
老将后卫巴迪·希尔德(Buddy Hield)在赛季的前两周表现出色。 David Gonzales-Imagn Images
趋势：安东尼·戴维斯一直是湖人队最好的球员
2014 年，我写道，勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)的年龄和戴维斯的进步使得戴维斯在价值方面超越他成为必然。十年后，这可能终于要发生了。戴维斯场均得到职业生涯最高的 32.6 分，比詹姆斯多 10 分以上，而后者场均 21.9 分将是他自新秀赛季以来的最低值。戴维斯的回合占用率上升到 32%，高于上赛季的 27%，其中许多球权来自詹姆斯。他的回合占用率从 29% 下降到职业生涯最低的 25%。
结论：基本真实
有趣的是，詹姆斯的低回合占用率是我上赛季初期的趋势之一，当时我根据他过去在整个赛季中逐渐增加工作量的历史，认为这“不真实”。
但詹姆斯的回合占用率在接下来的比赛中几乎没有变化。考虑到他的年龄（12 月就满 40 岁）以及尽可能多打比赛的意愿，将更多的进攻重任转移到戴维斯身上是保持詹姆斯状态的一种简单方法。
另一方面，戴维斯的开局几乎没有什么侥幸的成分。尽管回合占用率增加，但根据 Second Spectrum 的追踪数据，他的投篮质量与上赛季几乎相同。根据 Second Spectrum 的数据，戴维斯场均只有 1.9 次在防守者距离他不到 2 英尺的情况下出手，低于上赛季的 3.0 次。
一个潜在的担忧是戴维斯得到了充分的休息，随着赛季的进行，伤病的积累可能会让他慢下来。在周一输给底特律活塞队的比赛后期，他的左脚伤势加重。除非出现更严重的伤病，我仍然认为戴维斯将成为湖人队最有价值的球员。
趋势：维克托·文班亚马正处于得分低谷
去年的状元秀场均得到 21.4 分，并赢得了年度最佳新秀奖，其中包括全明星赛后的场均 23.5 分，当时他的上场时间不再受限。
随着休赛期控球后卫克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)的加盟，人们对文班亚马的二年级赛季寄予厚望。然而，文班亚马场均仅得到 18.9 分，低于一年前的同期水平。
结论：部分真实
好消息是，文班亚马的回合占用率下降的部分原因（从新秀赛季的 32% 降至本赛季的 29%）是他的前场队友杰里米·索汉(Jeremy Sochan)正在发展成为一个进攻威胁。索汉在圣安东尼奥马刺队的进攻占比从 19% 提升至 24%，同时提高了他的效率，这对球队长远发展来说是一个可喜的现象。
不利的一面是，索汉在内线的得分能力促使文班亚马在三分线外停留过多的时间，在 ESPN 的沙姆斯·查拉尼亚周二报道索汉将因拇指骨折需要手术而缺席比赛之后，这种情况现在可能会改变。尽管根据 Basketball-Reference.com 的数据，索汉的平均投篮距离已从 11 英尺下降到 6.9 英尺，但文班亚马的平均投篮距离已从 13 英尺上升到 16 英尺。文班亚马的大部分投篮都来自油漆区外（根据 NBA 高阶数据，占比为 52%），而且他作为一名三分球投手仍然表现不佳（命中率 22%）。
根据 Second Spectrum 的数据，在周一输给洛杉矶快船队的比赛中（索汉在下半场缺席），文班亚马首次在本赛季单场比赛中出手超过 7 次油漆区投篮，而他在新秀赛季的 71 场比赛中曾 39 次做到这一点。并非巧合的是，文班亚马在下半场得到了 16 分，因为他周围有更多的空间。马刺队必须想办法在索汉回归后激活文班亚马在油漆区的进攻。
马刺队希望维克托·文班亚马能够在 2023-24 赛季的年度最佳新秀基础上更进一步。 Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images
趋势：犯规盛行！哨声又回来了
上赛季中期允许防守球员更多身体接触的规则改变，尤其是在突破上，似乎并没有延续下来，因为 NBA 季前赛的重点是防守球员将进攻球员推出直线突破路线。
我们在 2023-24 赛季中看到了场均犯规次数的巨大变化。到 1 月底，场均犯规次数为 19.6 次，导致 22.9 次罚球。
在赛季最后两个多月里，这些数字下降到 17.6 次犯规和 20.1 次罚球。到目前为止，本赛季的犯规次数（20.8 次）和罚球次数（23.8 次）都回升了——事实上，比一年前同期还要高。
结论：拭目以待
从统计学的角度来看，我们有足够的数据表明比赛的吹罚方式与 2023-24 赛季末相比发生了某些变化。然而，与其他统计因素相比，犯规更容易受到基于球员和裁判如何调整的非随机变化的影响。
上赛季的变化发生在得分大幅上升之后，这可能并非巧合。球员们建议在 ESPN 的蒂姆·邦坦普斯和我合写的一篇关于进攻激增的文章中允许更多的身体接触。尽管罚球次数有所增加，但得分还没有达到上赛季的高度。
我们已经看到了一些调整。正如《The Athletic》的约翰·霍林格所指出的那样，在早期达到峰值后，犯规率在过去一周一直在下降。
查看 Kevin Pelton (@ kpeltoncharts) 在 Instagram 上的帖子
趋势：雷霆队的防守独树一帜
在周一将奥兰多魔术队的得分限制在 86 分后，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的防守数据看起来像回到了另一个 NBA 时代。雷霆队场均仅失分 95.9 分，比任何其他球队少 8.4 分。对手每百回合得分 93.8 分。只有勇士队（102.1）的防守效率与俄克拉荷马城雷霆队极低的防守效率相差在 13.7 分以内。
结论：不真实，但对对手来说仍然可怕
雷霆队会成为自 2015-16 赛季的马刺队以来第一支将对手的每百回合得分控制在 1 分以下的球队吗？可能不会。与金州勇士队一样，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队也受益于对手极低的三分球命中率（28%）。
雷霆队的赛程也比较轻松，包括一场对阵没有受伤的全明星保罗·班切罗(Paolo Banchero)的奥兰多魔术队的比赛。在考虑伤病因素后，Dunksandthrees.com 将俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的对手的进攻实力排在本赛季迄今为止的倒数第三位。
与此同时，让对手感到不安的是，雷霆队在比赛中缺少了他们最好的防守球员之一，新中锋以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因(Isaiah Hartenstein)。根据 NBA 高阶数据，当首发中锋切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)坐在板凳上时，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的每百回合失分会多 5.3 分。雷霆队在这些时间里大部分都使用身高 6 英尺 10 英寸的锋线球员奥斯曼·迪昂(Ousmane Dieng)作为他们的中锋。
当上赛季 NBA 顶级护框手之一的哈尔滕施泰因回归时，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的防守可能会变得更加强大。
趋势：新秀影响有限
雅虎体育的汤姆·哈伯斯特罗赫最初指出，在赛季的第一周，没有哪个新秀上场时间达到 30 分钟，甚至没有得分达到 15 分。直到周一，华盛顿奇才队前锋凯肖恩·乔治(Kyshawn George)和孟菲斯灰熊队中锋扎克·埃迪(Zach Edey)才成为本赛季第一批单场得分达到 20 分或以上的新秀。
埃迪（11.1 分）和奇才队后卫巴布·卡灵顿(Bub Carrington)（10.3 分）现在场均得分上双，但他们离肯扬·马丁(Kenyon Martin)还有很长一段路要走，后者在 2000-01 赛季的场均 12.0 分是现代 NBA 历史上符合条件的新秀中得分王最低的。
新秀上场时间领先者（卡灵顿，29.2 分钟）仅次于 2016-17 赛季的布兰登·英格拉姆(Brandon Ingram)（28.9 分钟），当时状元秀本·西蒙斯因伤缺席了整个赛季。NBA 历史上的其他每个赛季都至少有一名新秀场均上场 32 分钟。
结论：可能不真实
值得记住的是，随着伤病的增加和球队重建的进行，新秀的上场时间往往会在赛季中增加。新秀现在所占的分钟数比例（6.6%）与上赛季相同，并且高于 2022-23 赛季（5.8%）。他们在那些赛季结束时上场时间超过了所有可能上场时间的 8%。
没有像文班亚马，甚至像 2023 年榜眼秀布兰登·米勒(Brandon Miller)这样的标志性球星，本赛季可能——甚至很有可能——不会出现任何符合条件的新秀场均得分达到 15 分，这将是自 2016-17 赛季以来的第一次，当时二轮秀马尔科姆·布罗格登(Malcolm Brogdon)获得了年度最佳新秀，因为乔尔·恩比德(Joel Embiid)因伤只打了 31 场比赛。
与此同时，许多新秀在没有高得分的情况下也做出了贡献。波特兰开拓者队中锋多诺万·克林根(Donovan Clingan)和华盛顿奇才队前锋亚历山大·萨尔(Alexandre Sarr)作为盖帽手给人留下了深刻印象，而瑞安·邓恩(Ryan Dunn)一直是菲尼克斯太阳队中一名有价值的 3D 球员，多伦多猛龙队的大个子杰米森·巴特尔(Jamison Battle)和乔纳森·莫格博(Jonathan Mogbo)也从替补席上获得了不错的上场时间。本赛季的新秀们仍然充满希望。
孟菲斯灰熊队中锋扎克·埃迪是年度最佳新秀的早期热门人选之一。 Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
趋势：西部统治东部
在上个赛季，西部联盟有 11 支球队的胜率达到或超过 50%，而两支 46 胜的球队（勇士队和萨克拉门托国王队）错过了季后赛，我们预计西部将是更强的联盟。然而，没有任何东西可以为东西部对抗赛一边倒的开局做好准备。到目前为止，西部球队对东部球队的战绩为 21 胜 9 负（胜率 70%），并且在这些比赛中的净胜分为 +5.4 分。
自 1976 年 ABA 和 NBA 合并以来，东西部对抗赛统治地位的最高纪录是东部在 1988-89 赛季赢得了 64% 的比赛。而东部在 2021-22 和 2022-23 赛季实际上都是两个联盟中较好的一个，这使得过去两个赛季与最近的均势相比发生了戏剧性的转变。
结论：基本不真实
东西部对抗赛的胜负关系在赛季中发生变化是有历史先例的。在 1996-97 赛季，东部球队在赛季初对西部球队的战绩为 21 胜 9 负，但在接下来的比赛中只比 50% 胜率高出 32 场，最终东西部对抗赛的胜率为 54.5%。在赛程的早期阶段，东西部对抗赛的比赛分布并不均匀。
东部两支最好的球队，波士顿凯尔特人队和克利夫兰骑士队，总共只打了一场对阵西部球队的比赛——骑士队以 24 分的优势大胜湖人队，这是迄今为止东部球队战胜西部球队最大的分差。与此同时，芝加哥公牛队和猛龙队总共打了 9 场对阵西部球队的比赛。西部应该在整个赛季保持优势，但东西部对抗赛的系列赛可能不会保持如此一边倒的局面。
点击查看原文：Real or not? Examining eight key NBA early-season trends
Real or not? Examining eight key NBA early-season trends
Two weeks into the 2024-25 NBA season, plenty of trends and early-season developments have already stood out.
The defending champion Boston Celtics and West favorite Oklahoma City Thunder are near the top of their conference standings, as expected. But there have been some interesting surprises, as well.
The Golden State Warriors boast the NBA’s second-best point differential (behind Oklahoma City and its stifling defense) despite losing Klay Thompson in free agency and playing three games without Stephen Curry.
Curry’s brief absence hasn’t stopped teams from hoisting 3-point attempts at new record rates, while offenses are also benefiting from more whistles than we saw at the end of last season.
One of the players drawing many of those fouls is the NBA’s unexpected leading scorer, Los Angeles Lakers big man Anthony Davis.
Meanwhile, rookies from what was considered a relatively weak draft are off to a slow start. So too is last season’s Rookie of the Year, Victor Wembanyama, who posted a rare 5x5 stat line last week but hasn’t been scoring as prolifically as he did during his rookie season.
Let’s take a look at the underlying numbers and history to evaluate which of these trends are real and which might not last beyond November.
Jump to a section:\
More 3-point shooting?\
Warriors to stay hot?\
Lakers MVP: Davis over LeBron?\
Wemby in a scoring lull?\
Fouls back up?\
Thunder’s defense to make history?\
Will the rookies rise up?\
West teams to dominate East teams?
Trend: Copying the Celtics? More teams firing up 3s
Your eyes have not deceived you: NBA teams are taking more 3-pointers than ever. Through the first two weeks of the season, 42% of all shot attempts have been 3s, which would surpass the 40% mark in 2021-22 for the most in NBA history. That’s interesting because 3-point attempts had largely stabilized since 2019-20 after a decades-long upward trend.
The fact that the Celtics parlayed the league’s highest attempt rate (47% of shots during the regular season) into a Finals win over the team that ranked second (the Dallas Mavericks at 44%) seems to have influenced the rest of the NBA to double down on 3s.
Verdict: Real
Historically, there’s not much evidence of a copycat effect translating into more 3s. We saw no such impact after the Warriors won the 2022 title with the league’s second-highest 3 attempt rate. Instead, 3s actually went down across the league the following season.
Still, this trend is likely to persist. Only once in NBA history has the league’s 3-point attempt rate changed by more than 1.5 percentage points in either direction from this point to the end of the regular season. So get ready for a new record number of 3-pointers.
Trend: The Warriors will continue winning by wide margins
There are four teams outscoring opponents by double-digit points per game, with a wide gap between that group and the fifth-best team by this metric (Sacramento, plus-4.3 PPG). Three teams were predictable: The Celtics and Thunder topped my stats-based projections, and the Cleveland Cavaliers had the fourth-best projection.
That leaves Golden State as the outlier. The Warriors had a good but not great wins projection in my model (an average of 44.8 wins), and a more modest 43.5 wins over/under total at ESPN BET. Yet despite the loss of Thompson – who has fit well with the Mavericks – Golden State has matched its 6-1 start in 2021-22, when the Warriors last won the title.
Verdict: Probably not real
There are multiple reasons to be skeptical of Golden State’s start. Per ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the Warriors have played far and away the NBA’s easiest schedule. An average team would win 60% against Golden State’s opponents after factoring in location and rest; no other team has a schedule easier than 57.5%. That will inevitably even out. So too will the Warriors’ opponents’ shooting.
Teams are hitting a league-low 28% of their 3s against Golden State. That can’t possibly continue. No team has seen opponents shoot worse than 31% from 3 over a full season in the past two decades. The Warriors have played well enough so far to consider them favorites to finish in the top four in the West. Staying with Oklahoma City atop the conference seems less likely.
Veteran guard Buddy Hield has been solid for the Warriors in the first two weeks of the season. David Gonzales-Imagn Images
Trend: Anthony Davis has been the Lakers’ best player
In 2014, I wrote that LeBron James’ age and Davis’ development made it inevitable that Davis would surpass him in terms of value. A decade later, it might finally be happening. Davis is averaging a career-high 32.6 points, more than 10 more than James, whose 21.9 average would be his lowest since his rookie season. Davis has pushed his usage rate to 32%, up from 27% a season ago, and many of those possessions have come from James. His usage has dropped from 29% to a career-low 25%.
Verdict: Mostly real
Amusingly, James’ low usage was one of my early-season trends a season ago, when I deemed it “not real” based on his history of ramping up his workload over the course of the season.
But James’ usage barely budged the rest of the way. Given his age (40 in December) and intent to play as many games as possible, shifting more of the offensive load to Davis is an easy way to keep James fresh.
On the other side of the equation, little of Davis’ start looks fluky. Despite increased usage, his shot quality is nearly the same as last season, based on Second Spectrum tracking. Davis is attempting just 1.9 shots per game with a defender closer than 2 feet to him, down from 3.0 last season, according to Second Spectrum.
The one potential concern is Davis has been well-rested and might slow down as nicks accumulate over the course of the season. He aggravated a left foot injury late in Monday’s loss to the Detroit Pistons. Barring a more serious injury, I’d still bet on Davis to finish as the Lakers’ most valuable player.
Trend: Victor Wembanyama is in a scoring lull
Last year’s No. 1 pick averaged 21.4 points in winning Rookie of the Year, including 23.5 PPG after the All-Star break, when his minutes were no longer limited.
Along with the offseason addition of point guard Chris Paul, high expectations for Wembanyama were created for Year 2. Instead, Wembanyama is averaging just 18.9 points, down from this point a year ago.
Verdict: Somewhat real
The good news is that part of the reason Wembanyama’s usage rate is down (from 32% as a rookie to 29% this season) is frontcourt-mate Jeremy Sochan developing into an offensive threat. Sochan has pushed his share of the San Antonio Spurs’ offense from 19% to 24% while simultaneously boosting his efficiency, a welcome development long term.
The downside is Sochan’s ability to score inside has encouraged Wembanyama to spend too much time on the perimeter, which might now change after ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Tuesday that Sochan will be sidelined by a fractured thumb that will require surgery. Though Sochan’s average shot distance has dropped from 11 feet to 6.9 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, Wembanyama’s has gone up from 13 feet to 16. The majority of Wembanyama’s shots have come outside the paint (52% per NBA Advanced Stats) and he continues to struggle as a 3-point shooter (22%).
According to Second Spectrum, Monday’s loss to the LA Clippers – in which Sochan sat out the second half – was the first time Wembanyama has taken more than seven paint shots in a game this season after doing so 39 times in 71 games as a rookie. Not coincidentally, Wembanyama scored 16 points after halftime with more spacing around him. The Spurs must figure out how to activate Wembanyama in the paint once Sochan returns.
The Spurs are hoping for Victor Wembanyama to build on his Rookie of the Year season in 2023-24. Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images
Trend: Foul play! The whistles are back
Last season’s midstream change to allow defensive players more contact, particularly on drives, seems not to have carried over in the wake of the NBA’s preseason point of emphasis on defenders moving drivers off their straight-line path to the basket.
We saw a dramatic change in fouls per game over the course of the 2023-24 campaign. Through the end of January, there were an average of 19.6 fouls per game leading to 22.9 free throws.
Over the season’s final two-plus months, those marks dropped to 17.6 fouls and 20.1 free throws. So far this season, both fouls (20.8) and free throws (23.8) are back up – higher, in fact, than they were at this time a year ago.
Verdict: Wait and see
From a statistical perspective, we have more than enough data to say something has changed in how the game is officiated from the end of the 2023-24 season. More than other statistical factors, though, fouls are subject to nonrandom changes based on how players and officials adjust.
It probably wasn’t a coincidence that last season’s changes followed a much-publicized jump in scoring. Players suggested allowing more contact in a story ESPN’s Tim Bontemps and I wrote about the offensive surge. Despite free throws being up, scoring hasn’t yet reached last season’s heights.
Already, we’re seeing some adjustment. As noted by John Hollinger of The Athletic, foul rates have been dropping over the past week after peaking early.
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Trend: The Thunder defense is in a league of its own
After holding the Orlando Magic to 86 points Monday, Oklahoma City’s defensive numbers look like a throwback to a different NBA era. The Thunder are giving up only 95.9 points per game, 8.4 fewer than any other team. And opponents are scoring 93.8 points per 100 possessions. Only the Warriors (102.1) are within 13.7 points of Oklahoma City’s preposterously low defensive rating.
Verdict: Not real, but still scary for opponents
Will the Thunder become the first team since the 2015-16 Spurs to hold opponents below a point per possession? Probably not. Like Golden State, Oklahoma City is benefiting from unsustainably poor opponent 3-point shooting (28%).
The Thunder’s schedule has also been on the easy side, including a matchup against Orlando without injured All-Star Paolo Banchero. Dunksandthrees.com rates Oklahoma City’s opponents third-worst offensively thus far after accounting for injuries.
At the same time, the troubling thought for opponents is that the Thunder have played without one of their better defenders, new center Isaiah Hartenstein. Oklahoma City has given up 5.3 more points per 100 possessions with starting center Chet Holmgren on the bench, per NBA Advanced Stats. The Thunder have used 6-foot-10 combo forward Ousmane Dieng as their center for most of those minutes.
When one of the NBA’s top rim protectors last season in Hartenstein returns, Oklahoma City’s defense could become even more formidable.
Trend: Rookies will have a limited impact
Tom Haberstroh of Yahoo! Sports initially noted that no rookie had played 30 minutes or scored even 15 points in the season’s first week. It was only Monday when Washington Wizards forward Kyshawn George and Memphis Grizzlies center Zach Edey became the first rookies this season to have a game with 20 or more points.
Edey (11.1) and Wizards guard Bub Carrington (10.3) are now averaging double-figure scoring, though they still have a ways to go to catch Kenyon Martin, whose 12.0 PPG in 2000-01 were fewest in modern NBA history by the leading scorer among qualifying rookies.
And the leader in rookie playing time (Carrington, 29.2 minutes) is ahead of only Brandon Ingram’s average (28.9) in 2016-17, when No. 1 pick Ben Simmons sat out the season because of injury. Every other season in NBA history has seen at least one rookie average 32 minutes.
Verdict: Probably not real
It’s worth remembering that rookie playing time tends to increase over the course of the season as injuries mount and teams pivot toward rebuilds. Rookies are now playing an identical share of minutes (6.6%) as last season and more than in 2022-23 (5.8%). They ended those seasons playing over 8% of all possible minutes.
Without a signature star like Wembanyama or even 2023 No. 2 pick Brandon Miller, it’s possible – perhaps even likely – that this season won’t feature any qualifying rookie scoring 15 PPG for the first time since 2016-17, when second-round pick Malcolm Brogdon won Rookie of the Year because Joel Embiid played only 31 games because of injury.
At the same time, plenty of rookies are contributing without big scoring totals. Portland Trail Blazers center Donovan Clingan and Washington Wizards forward Alexandre Sarr have impressed as shot blockers, while Ryan Dunn has been a valuable 3-and-D player for the Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors big men Jamison Battle and Jonathan Mogbo are getting good minutes off the bench. There’s hope yet for this season’s rookie class.
Memphis Grizzlies center Zach Edey is one of the early favorites to win Rookie of the Year. Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Trend: West dominating East
After a season in which 11 Western Conference teams were .500 or better, and a pair of 46-win teams (the Warriors and Sacramento Kings) missed the playoffs, we expected the West to be the stronger conference. Yet nothing could have prepared for the lopsided start to interconference matchups. West teams have gone 21-9 (.700) against the East thus far with a plus-5.4 point differential in those games.
Since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, the high-water mark for conference domination was the East winning 64% of head-to-head matchups in 1988-99. And the East had actually been the better of the two conferences in both 2021-22 and 2022-23, making the past two seasons a dramatic turn from recent parity.
Verdict: Mostly not real
There is a history of the interconference battle shifting over the course of the season. In 1996-97, East teams started the season 21-9 against the West, but were just 32 games above .500 the rest of the way, resulting in a modest 54.5% final head-to-head rate. This early in the schedule, interconference games aren’t yet evenly distributed.
The East’s two best teams, Boston and Cleveland, have played a combined one game against the West – the Cavaliers crushing the Lakers by 24 points in the largest East win over a West team so far this season. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls and Raptors have played a combined nine games against the West. The West should retain the upper hand all season, but the series probably won’t remain this lopsided.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN