By Jeremy Woo | ESPN, 2024-11-05 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
上赛季的 NBA 新秀中最引人注目的是文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)的横空出世，而本赛季初，他正努力避免在圣安东尼奥马刺队陷入二年级新秀的低迷期。
虽然所有人的目光都集中在文班亚马能否带领马刺队在竞争激烈的西部联盟获得季后赛席位上，但其他一些二年级球员也在赛季初就展现出了影响力。文班亚马的同届新秀（也是前大都会92队的队友）比拉尔·库里巴利(Bilal Coulibaly)正在帮助引领华盛顿奇才队的青年风暴，而另一位乐透秀格雷迪·迪克(Gradey Dick)则证明了他为什么应该成为多伦多猛龙队未来的一部分。
另一方面，2024届新秀在前两周的表现可谓喜忧参半。两周的比赛还不足以得出结论，但今年选秀是十年来最弱的一届的想法并没有被赛场上的结果所反驳。虽然包括孟菲斯灰熊队中锋扎克·埃迪(Zach Edey)在内的一些高知名度新秀正在站稳脚跟，但也出现了一些令人惊喜的新秀——包括埃迪的灰熊队新秀队友杰伦·威尔斯(Jaylen Wells)。
以下是三位值得关注的二年级球员、一位令人惊喜的新秀以及目前对2024届新秀的一些看法和赛季初期的趋势分析。
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文班的第二年展望
奇才倚重库里巴利
2024届新秀的缓慢开局
文班亚马在第二年的现实预期是什么？
对于这位2023年的状元秀来说，本赛季已经经历了一些独特的巅峰和非典型的低谷。万圣节对阵犹他爵士队的比赛中，文班亚马打出了职业生涯第二场极其罕见的5x5数据，而在此之前，他对阵俄克拉荷马雷霆队只得到6分，而更早之前，他在输给休斯顿火箭队的比赛中得到14分和20个篮板。
文班亚马很有可能回到他通常的高水准，并最终超越它。由于他喜欢尝试各种非平衡和创造性的投篮，他的投篮状态可能不稳定。鉴于他的身材，他实际上是一个外线球员，而不是一个背身单打的内线球员，但球队应该更注重让他轻松得分，而不是让他在外线勉强出手（根据Second Spectrum的数据，在前七场比赛中，他场均出手9.6次跳投，而上篮只有5.1次）。随着他逐渐成熟，他的中距离投篮应该会变得稳定，但考虑到他的身高，他在篮下的效率如此之高，最终需要增加这些高价值的触球机会。目前来说，轻松的扣篮和上篮有助于抵消那些艰难的投篮。
你如何看待他的慢热开局（根据 Second Spectrum 的数据，他在跳投方面的命中率为 25%，在至少出手 50 次的球员中排名垫底）取决于你对圣安东尼奥的期望。马刺队拥有联盟第三年轻的阵容，进攻效率排名联盟倒数第五。尽管如此，这并不意味着文班亚马不会在二年级迎来巨大的飞跃。
本赛季马刺队的最终成绩将取决于这位20岁的文班亚马。主教练格雷格·波波维奇(Gregg Popovich)的执教时间和健康状况现在是球队的大问题。休赛期引进的克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)和哈里森·巴恩斯(Harrison Barnes)为球队提供了更好的架构，尽管他们目前的进攻表现不佳。圣安东尼奥的进攻策略很明智，他们围绕文班亚马创造了足够的投篮空间，通过他作为支点来运转球，并给予他创造进攻的自由。
保罗的到来让文班亚马有更多机会作为掩护者并攻击篮下。德文·瓦塞尔(Devin Vassell)即将从脚伤中复出，这应该会提升他周围的投篮空间。即使会经历成长的阵痛，马刺队也应该继续培养他们更年轻的替补球员，包括新秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)和2022年的首轮秀马拉基·布兰纳姆(Malaki Branham)。
对于文班亚马来说，这个赛季并不会轻松，尤其是在没有第二个球星能够持续吸引防守注意力的情况下。根据 Second Spectrum 的数据，本赛季对手总共对他的背身单打进行了9次包夹——在NBA中仅次于尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)。当然，防守文班亚马的方法并不多——各队都在对他施加压力，对他进行身体对抗，并试图迫使他远离禁区，进行更艰难的投篮。他的身材和灵巧的脚步让他在空间中运作和得分方面拥有巨大的优势，但任何球星都需要时间来适应这种级别的防守。
库里巴利在年轻的奇才队崭露头角
华盛顿奇才队正在倚重他们的年轻球员，2024年的首轮秀亚历山大·萨尔(Alexandre Sarr)、巴布·卡灵顿(Bub Carrington)和凯肖恩·乔治(Kyshawn George)在新秀中场均上场时间排名前五。奇才队目前的战绩为2胜4负，他们正在接受阵容的陡峭学习曲线，这支球队很可能在明年六月再添一名乐透秀。值得称赞的是，这些年轻球员打得很努力，也让比赛变得很有看点。
这对去年的7号秀比拉尔·库里巴利来说也是个好兆头，他在赛季初的比赛中已经开始有所突破。
库里巴利在过去两年的发展轨迹（可以追溯到他在法国与文班亚马做队友的时期）非常出色，不仅体现在技术方面，也体现在他的自信和果断上。在前六场比赛中，这位身高6尺8寸的侧翼场均得到17.7分、5.8个篮板、2.5次助攻和1次抢断，他似乎正在将他的巨大潜力转化为实际产量。在上周奇才队两胜老鹰队的比赛中，他大放异彩，长时间盯防特雷·杨(Trae Young)，利用他的身高和敏捷性给对手制造了麻烦。
20岁的库里巴利在上周战胜老鹰队的比赛中砍下了职业生涯最高的27分，他在转换进攻、篮下轻松得分（两分球命中率68%）方面都做出了贡献，并且在三分球方面也展现出了进步（场均出手4次，命中率47%）。
库里巴利拥有全明星级别的防守工具，几乎可以换防所有对手，从小个子后卫到高大侧翼。奇才队也让他在组织进攻方面感到舒适，他在比赛的流畅性中不断展现出传球技巧。他创造自己投篮机会的能力将最终决定库里巴利的职业生涯走向，但他这种身高带来的多位置的全面性是不常见的。
他目前的表现可能无法在82场比赛中保持下去，但库里巴利有成为奇才队核心球员的潜力。并不是很多球员能够每晚承担最艰巨的防守任务，在进攻端打遍所有外线位置，并保持高效率的终结进攻。如果他的投篮能够到位，库里巴利可能会成为NBA中最好的侧翼球员之一。
迪克在重建中的猛龙队找到自己的位置
猛龙队正在应对早期的伤病潮，球星斯科蒂·巴恩斯(Scottie Barnes)、伊曼纽尔·奎克利(Immanuel Quickley)和RJ·巴雷特(RJ Barrett)都缺席了比赛，这让他们失去了大量的进攻机会。但这并没有阻止格雷迪·迪克，他在第二个赛季场均得到21分，并展现出作为一名充满活力的外线射手的真正闪光点。
尽管球队开局2胜6负，但他作为一名贡献者的出现对猛龙队来说是一个重要的发展，猛龙队正处于为未来组建获胜阵容的过程中，需要他们的选秀球员能够有所作为。特别是迪克，他拥有那种对于在巴恩斯周围创造合适空间至关重要的技能。他是一位非常优秀的移动射手，并且已经扩展了他的投篮选择，增加了更多弧顶三分球的出手，根据 Second Spectrum 的数据，他场均出手6次，有效命中率为59.1%。他的三分球命中率为37.3%，随着时间的推移以及身边有更多有天赋的球员，这个数字应该会有所提高。迪克正在将自己塑造成一个防守方不敢放空的球员。
在新秀赛季表现平平之后，格雷迪·迪克在本赛季与猛龙队的比赛中迎来了一个强劲的开局。 Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images这些早期的表现对于迪克来说是一次回暖，他在20岁的新秀赛季表现平平，在上赛季发展联盟的11场比赛中投篮也不佳。考虑到投篮被认为是迪克来自堪萨斯大学的最佳技能，他的表现引起了联盟一些观察员的担忧，他们担心多伦多用13号签选中他是否过高，因为基翁特·乔治(Keyonte George)、小杰米·哈克斯(Jaime Jaquez Jr.)和布兰丁·波杰姆斯基(Brandin Podziemski)都在他之后被选中。在上赛季的最后阶段，在猛龙队输掉很多比赛的情况下，迪克的表现开始有所好转。
这里仍然有很多改进的空间，尤其是在防守端，但他的信心和进步在多伦多展现出了一些赛季初的希望。
孟菲斯的另一位新秀正在展现影响力
扎克·埃迪似乎正在灰熊队找到自己的节奏，在周一输给布鲁克林篮网队的比赛中得到25分——这是迄今为止联盟中任何新秀的单场最高得分。他场均11.1分领先所有新秀，但他的队友杰伦·威尔斯紧随其后，后者在今年的选秀大会第二轮被孟菲斯选中。
这位来自华盛顿州立大学的39号秀，大学生涯始于NCAA二级联赛，由于灰熊队的大量伤病，他立即获得了上场时间。作为一名以投篮闻名的新秀，身高6尺8寸的威尔斯的三分球命中率为38.7%，场均得到9.8分，顶替了德斯蒙德·贝恩(Desmond Bane)、卢克·肯纳德(Luke Kennard)、马库斯·斯马特(Marcus Smart)和其他缺席的球员。他在前两场首发中分别得到15分和16分。
作为去年选秀大会的二轮秀，杰伦·威尔斯一直是灰熊队的一个惊喜。 AP Photo/Brandon Dill他的防守也比预期的要好，显示出在必要时可以防守持球人的能力，如果他能保持下去，这将是对他的技能组合的重大提升。在大学毕业时，球探们并不认为他是一名出色的防守者，而最近他跟上76人球星泰瑞斯·马克西(Tyrese Maxey)的脚步的片段当然值得注意。
虽然目前还不清楚随着孟菲斯队球员的伤愈复出，21岁的威尔斯将扮演多大的角色，但他看起来确实是灰熊队最新的高质量选秀成果。威尔斯在大学期间经历了身高猛增，在华盛顿州立大学只打了一个赛季后，并没有被NBA球探视为稳妥的选择。他的投篮能力和他职业生涯的后期爆发性为他创造了一些在联盟中成为潜力股的吸引力，但他是否参加选秀或回到大学的决定并不明确。
威尔斯来到了一个理想的发展环境，他可以与贾·莫兰特(Ja Morant)一起拉开空间，在防守端做出贡献，并且没有在比赛中被迫创造太多投篮机会。他没有令人垂涎的潜力——他身体素质不是特别好，也不是一个动态的移动者——但威尔斯看起来很舒服。他的早期表现是迄今为止新秀中为数不多的亮点之一。
是时候降低对24届新秀的预期了
如果你关注了ESPN对2024年选秀周期的报道，你对这届新秀的期望可能会足够现实。
NBA球探和高管对2024年选秀周期的兴奋程度可以说是不温不火。根据那些仔细观察球员一举一动的人的普遍共识，随着时间的推移，每届选秀都会涌现出优秀的球员，但进入联盟后准备好成为高影响力球员的新秀数量却很少。当然，从历史上看，联盟大多数新秀的上场时间都不是净积极的，但对这届新秀的期望值尤其不高。
这种感觉在早期的赛场证据中得到了切实的反映：只有8名新秀场均上场时间超过20分钟，其中3名效力于奇才队。
选秀大会第二顺位亚历山大·萨尔与状元扎卡里·里萨切尔争抢球权。 Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images在本届新秀中的佼佼者中：状元扎卡里·里萨切尔(Zaccharie Risacher)的投篮命中率只有32.9%。榜眼亚历山大·萨尔的盖帽数接近场均3次，但在进攻效率方面却很挣扎。探花秀里德·谢泼德(Reed Sheppard)在休斯顿还没有获得稳定的轮换位置。埃迪，一位热门的年度最佳新秀候选人，在适应NBA比赛速度的同时，也一直在与犯规麻烦作斗争。这样的例子不胜枚举。显而易见：学习在NBA打球是一项非常艰巨的工作！
即使不是惊天动地，这届新秀中也有一些亮点。前面提到的威尔斯看起来像是孟菲斯队的发现。莱恩·邓恩(Ryan Dunn)（28号秀）在菲尼克斯的投篮方面取得了意想不到的飞跃，这让他在一支有着雄心壮志的球队中成为了一名关键的角色球员。他在弗吉尼亚大学的三分球命中率为23%，现在在NBA的命中率为39%，场均出手近5次。伊夫·米西(Yves Missi)（21号秀）作为一名盖帽手和篮下终结者，为伤兵满营的新奥尔良鹈鹕队做出了积极的贡献。
赛季的进行将为其他新秀创造崭露头角的机会，各球队管理层将密切关注这届新秀的发展。
点击查看原文：2024-25 NBA rookie, sophomore updates: Sleepers, surprises, more
2024-25 NBA rookie, sophomore updates: Sleepers, surprises, more
Last season’s NBA rookie class was highlighted by the emergence of Victor Wembanyama, who is aiming to fend off an early-season sophomore slump with the San Antonio Spurs.
And while all eyes will be on whether Wembanyama can get the Spurs into playoff contention in a tough Western Conference, there are other second-year players who are making an early season impact. Wembanyama’s draft classmate (and former Metropolitans 92 teammate) Bilal Coulibaly is helping lead a youth movement for the Washington Wizards, while fellow lottery pick Gradey Dick is proving why he should be part of the Toronto Raptors’ future.
On the other hand, the 2024 rookie class has had its share of ups and downs in its first two weeks. Two weeks of games is too early to draw conclusions, but the thought that this year’s draft was the weakest in a decade hasn’t been refuted by on-court results. While higher-profile rookies, including Memphis Grizzlies big man Zach Edey, are finding their footing, there have been a few pleasant surprises – including Edey’s fellow first-year teammate Jaylen Wells.
Here are some early-season trends from three notable NBA sophomores, one surprise rookie, and what to make of the 2024 draft class so far.
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**Wemby’s Year 2 outlook\
Wizards leaning on Coulibaly**\
Slow start for the 2024 draft class
What are Wembanyama’s realistic expectations in Year 2?
This season has already come with some unique highs and atypical lows for the 2023 No. 1 pick. Wembanyama turned in the second ultra-rare 5x5 game of his career on Halloween against the Utah Jazz, which came after scoring just six points against the Oklahoma City Thunder, which came after a 14-point, 20-rebound showing in a loss to the Houston Rockets.
The odds are that Wembanyama will get back to, and eventually, raise his usual lofty standards. He can be a streaky shooter due to the number of off-balance and creative attempts he likes to take. Due to his frame, he’s really a perimeter player, not a back-to-the basket big, but there could be more emphasis on getting him easy touches, and less settling on his part (he’s attempted 9.6 jumpers jumpers per game to just 5.1 layups through seven games, per Second Spectrum data). His midrange game should become consistent as he matures, but Wembanyama is so good around the rim at his size that those high-value touches ultimately need to spike. For now, the easy dunks and layups help to counterbalance the tough ones.
How you view his slow start (his 25% on jump shots ranks last among players with at least 50 attempts, per Second Spectrum) revolves around your expectations for San Antonio. The Spurs have the league’s third-youngest roster, and rank in the bottom five of the league in offensive efficiency. Still, it doesn’t mean a big sophomore jump for Wembanyama isn’t coming.
The Spurs will ultimately go as the 20-year-old Wembanyama goes this season. Coach Gregg Popovich’s availability and health are now big-picture concerns. The offseason additions of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes give them much better structure, although they have not been good offensively so far. San Antonio’s offense has been smartly geared toward putting adequate spacing around Wembanyama, working the ball through him as an outlet, and giving him freedom to create.
Paul’s presence has given Wembanyama more opportunities to work as a screener and attack the middle of the floor. Devin Vassell’s impending return from a foot injury should enhance the spacing around him. It’s also in the Spurs’ best interest to keep developing their younger bench players, including rookie Stephon Castle and 2022 first-round pick Malaki Branham, even if there are growing pains.
It won’t be easy this season for Wembanyama, particularly without a second star to consistently draw attention. Opposing teams have double-teamed him on nine total post-ups this season – second-most in the NBA behind Nikola Jokic, according to Second Spectrum. Of course, there aren’t many other ways to guard Wembanyama – teams are sending pressure, guarding him physically and trying to influence him out of the paint and into tougher attempts. His physical stature and deft footwork give him tremendous advantages operating in space and scoring over opponents, but that level of coverage takes any star player time to figure out.
Coulibaly emerging for young Wizards
The Washington Wizards are leaning on their youngsters, with 2024 first-round picks Alexandre Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George all ranked in the top five in average minutes played per game among rookies. At 2-4, the Wizards are embracing the steep learning curve for a roster that will most likely add another lottery pick in June. To their credit, the young guys have played hard and made for an interesting watch.
This also bodes well for last year’s No. 7 overall pick, Bilal Coulibaly, who has begun to turn a corner in early-season action.
Coulibaly’s development track over the past two years (dating back to his time as Wembanyama’s teammate in France) has been remarkable, not just from a skill perspective but also in terms of his confidence and decisiveness. Averaging 17.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists and a steal through six games, the 6-8 wing appears to be translating his considerable potential into production. He shined in the Wizards’ two wins against the Hawks last week, during which he blanketed Trae Young for long stretches, using his length and agility to make things difficult.
Coulibaly, 20, scored a career-high 27 points in last week’s win over the Hawks, has contributed with transition finishing, easy baskets around the rim (68% on 2s), and has flashed improvement as a 3-point shooter (47% on four attempts per game).
Coulibaly has All-Defense level tools and can switch on pretty much all opponents from smaller guards to bigger wings. The Wizards are letting him get comfortable as a playmaker, too, and he continues to flash passing skills in the flow of the game. His ability to create his own shot will ultimately determine what type of career Coulibaly has, but the multi-positional versatility he brings at his size is uncommon.
His current clip may not be sustainable over an 82-game stretch, but Coulibaly has the talent to become a centerpiece for the Wizards. Not many players can take the toughest defensive assignment every night, play all over the perimeter offensively and finish plays at a high rate. If his shooting falls into place, Coulibaly could become one of the better wings in the NBA.
Dick finding role on rebuilding Raptors
The Raptors are dealing with an early wave of injuries and have seen stars Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett miss games, already vacating a ton of offensive opportunities in the interim. But that hasn’t stopped Gradey Dick, who’s averaging 21 points per game and has shown real flashes as a dynamic perimeter shooter in his second season.
His emergence as a contributor, despite a 2-6 start, is an important development for the Raptors, who are in the process of assembling winning parts for the future and need their draft picks to pan out. Dick, in particular, has the type of skillset that’s critical to putting the right level of spacing around Barnes. He’s a very good shooter on the move and has expanded his shot selection to include more above-the-break 3s, averaging six attempts per game with a 59.1 effective percentage, per Second Spectrum. His37.3% mark from long range should feasibly improve over time and with more talent on the floor around him. Dick is establishing himself as someone defenses can’t afford to leave open.
After a lackluster rookie season, Gradey Dick is enjoying a strong start to the season with the Raptors. Bart Young/NBAE via Getty ImagesThese early performances are of a bounce-back for Dick, who didn’t light it up as a 20-year-old rookie nor shoot particularly well in 11 games in the G League last season. Given that shooting was viewed as Dick’s best skill coming out of Kansas, his play raised some level of concern from observers around the league as to whether Toronto had overdrafted him with the No. 13 pick, with players like Keyonte George, Jaime Jaquez, Jr., and Brandin Podziemski coming off the board after him. Dick started to fare a bit better down the final stretch of last season, amid a lot of Raptors losing.
There’s still a lot of room for improvement here, particularly on the defensive end, but his confidence and improvement have shown some early-season promise in Toronto.
Memphis’ other rookie making presence felt
Zach Edey appears to be finding his stride with the Grizzlies, scoring 25 points in Monday’s loss to the Brooklyn Nets – the most in a game by any rookie in the league so far. His 11.1 points per game leads all rookies, but not far behind him is his teammate Jaylen Wells, who was selected by Memphis in the second round of this year’s draft.
The No. 39 pick out of Washington State who began his college career in Division II, Wells was thrust into immediate playing time because of a bevy of Grizzlies injuries. Known primarily as a shooter coming out of college, the 6-8 Wells has made 38.7% of his 3s and is averaging 9.8 points a game, stepping in with Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart and others sidelined. He scored 15 and 16 points in his first two starts.
As a second-round pick in last year’s draft, Jaylen Wells has been a pleasant surprise for the Grizzlies. AP Photo/Brandon DillHe has also been better than anticipated defensively, showing capacity to defend the ball in a pinch, which would be a significant boost to his skill set if it holds. He wasn’t viewed by scouts as a plus defender coming out of college, and a recent sequence where he kept up with 76ers star Tyrese Maxey was certainly noteworthy.
While it’s unclear how big a role Wells, 21, will maintain as Memphis gets healthier, he certainly looks like the latest quality draft snag for the Grizzlies. Wells had a late growth spurt in college, and wasn’t seen as a sure thing by NBA scouts after just one season at Washington State. His shooting ability and the late-blooming nature of his career created some sleeper appeal around the league, but his decision to enter the draft or return to college wasn’t clear-cut.
Wells has landed in an ideal development situation , where he can space the floor alongside Ja Morant, contribute defensively and isn’t pressured to create many shots in the flow of the game. He doesn’t have tantalizing upside – he’s not exceptionally physical, nor is he a dynamic mover – but Wells looks comfortable. His early play has been one of the few bright spots thus far for the rookie class.
Time to temper the outlook for the '24 draft class
If you followed ESPN’s coverage of the 2024 draft cycle, your expectations for this rookie class might have been sufficiently realistic.
The level of excitement among NBA scouts and executives about the 2024 draft cycle could have been described as muted. Quality players emerge over time from every draft, but the number of prospects entering the league prepared to be high-impact players was scant, based on the general consensus of those who scrutinize players’ every move. Granted the majority of the league’s rookies, historically speaking, are not net-positive players in their minutes but the expectations for this class particularly were not high.
That feeling has been reflected tangibly in the early on-court evidence: Just eight rookies are averaging more than 20 minutes a game, and three play for the Wizards.
Alex Sarr, the No. 2 pick in the draft, battles for the ball against the No. 1 pick, Zaccharie Risacher. Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesAmong top names in the class: No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher is shooting just 32.9% from the field. No. 2 pick Alexandre Sarr is blocking nearly three shots per game but has struggled with his offensive efficiency. No. 3 pick Reed Sheppard hasn’t carved out a regular role yet in Houston. Edey, a popular Rookie of the Year pick, has battled foul trouble while adjusting to the speed of the NBA game. The list goes on. Obvious statement alert: Learning to play in the NBA is a very hard job!
There have been a few bright spots among the rookie class, if not seismic ones. The aforementioned Wells looks like a find for Memphis. Ryan Dunn (No. 28) has made an unexpected shooting leap in Phoenix that’s turning him into a key role player on a team with big aspirations. He shot 23% from 3 at Virginia and is now making 39% from NBA range on nearly five attempts per game. Yves Missi (No. 21) has made positive contributions as a shot-blocker and rim-rummer for the injury-depleted New Orleans Pelicans.
The flow of the season will create opportunities for other rookies to step up, and front offices will be closely monitoring the development of this class.
By Jeremy Woo | ESPN, via ESPN