By Devon Birdsong | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-10-27 22:24:55
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
关于风车和等待
1979 年 7 月 15 日，就在美国庆祝其第 203 个周年纪念日后的 11 天，前总统吉米·卡特 (Jimmy Carter) 在椭圆形办公室通过电视向全国发表讲话。
对于美国人民来说，过去的六年是艰难的六年；这是一个充满全球危机和不确定性的时代，一个熟悉的波罗的海国家在每一个转折点都对世界事务投下巨大的阴影，而美国则经历着自大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退。
在高通胀、失业率飙升和经济增长停滞（经济学家现在将其讽刺地称为“滞胀”）的三重打击下，美国人民还经历了他们的第一次旷日持久的败仗、国家政治丑闻和迪斯科音乐。国民士气处于历史最低点。
卡特总统通过广播发表讲话，试图平息国民的不安情绪以及对经济和社会的担忧。这已经不是他第一次这样做了。卡特自己也承认，他之前曾多次就各种地缘政治和金融相关问题向美国人民发表过讲话。
对许多人来说，这只是又一个星期日晚上，而对于此次讲话的总体效果，人们的看法仍然存在分歧。对一些人来说，这只是又一次宣布了政策、领导和立法行动的失败。对另一些人来说，这是一次政治和个人布道，触及了问题的核心。
今天，它被称为“信任危机”的演讲。
无论如何，毫无疑问的是，这又是卡特总统就能源使用和节约问题发表的又一次讲话。对于许多经历了持续汽油配给时期的美国人来说，这是一个痛苦的话题，也是卡特政府从一开始就热情强调的一点。
尽管自那以后人们对卡特政府说了很多话，但毫无疑问，很少有总统如此积极地寻求替代和可持续能源解决方案的途径。
这些不切实际的追求中最主要的是改进风车。卡特政府确信，可持续能源的秘诀在于追求风能，因此将大量资金投入到该项目中，美国国家航空航天局 (NASA) 开发了各种实验性风力涡轮机。
同样面临着依赖外国石油利益的未来，许多欧洲国家也加入了美国的行列，引发了 20 世纪最平静的能源竞赛之一。
美国当时输掉了这场比赛，但比失败更有趣的是，哪个国家获得了“胜利”以及他们是如何做到的。
看着马刺队在对阵休斯顿火箭队的比赛中上半场表现出色后却逐渐落后，我不禁想起了“信任危机”这个词。在那一刻，再清楚不过了，当这支马刺队发挥出他们的全部能力时，他们拥有的运动能力和天赋优势是火箭队根本不具备的。
整晚大部分时间里，在阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Şengün) 和乔克·兰代尔 (Jock Landale) 面前，维克多·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 都能轻松得分，而休斯顿只能依靠身材单薄的球员在内线轮转，在攻防两端都处于明显劣势。
同样处于劣势的是休斯顿的外线球员，他们在三分线外的投篮命中率很低，因为马刺队利用长臂球员在每一个机会都对他们进行骚扰，利用他们缺乏外线突破能力以及在面对来自北凡尔赛的大盆栽 时无法得分的问题。
事实上，马刺队在前两节比赛中打出了近五年来对阵火箭队时最好的防守。然后，渐渐地，几乎是自发地，他们开始崩溃。
这确实是一场信任危机。在 20 世纪 70 年代早期和中期，某个北欧国家缺乏这种信任。
丹麦，这个小而安静的国家，在比它资金更充裕、实力更强大的国家面前，实现了当时可持续风能的巨大飞跃，并在 1978 年春天（就在卡特发表讲话的前一年）完成了世界上第一台兆瓦级风力涡轮机的建设。
他们在经济明显处于劣势的情况下做到这一点，更是令人震惊。但对丹麦人来说，这似乎是他们取得成功的唯一途径——坚持查尔斯·林德布洛姆 (Charles E. Lindblom) 的政策理论，即渐进主义。
从根本上说，渐进主义是通过小的、渐进的步骤来创造更大的变化的行为，而不是更大规模、更激进的战略规划形式。
由于资源有限，国内生产总值相对较低，丹麦人几乎不得不走上一条更长、更渐进的改进道路。与许多其他参与的国家不同，丹麦长期以来一直致力于改进风能，因为其农业经济长期需要能源，因此对这一过程中遇到的障碍有更好的了解。
当美国、英国和德国未能迅速开发出具有竞争力的机器时，丹麦人耐心地使用他们更渐进的方法建造了越来越好的风车，最终在 1978 年取得了巨大的成就。到世纪之交，世界上许多顶级风车制造商都来自丹麦，他们在这一领域至今仍是国际领先者和创新者。
当我看到一支被老板试图迅速打造成有竞争力的火箭队，却在一支由久经考验的控球后卫掌舵的、只打了第二场比赛的更年轻的马刺队面前苦苦挣扎时，我的脑海中立刻浮现出这种对比。
马刺队以一种安静、周到、而且往往是痛苦的渐进方式，展示了他们自己的渐进主义。令人痛苦的是，他们交易走了他们上一个优秀团队中一些最好的球员，然后全身心地投入到摆烂中；投入到最尴尬、最不情愿的人才获取过程中。
然后，他们选中了他们的核心球员，并花了一年时间对他进行试驾。现在，他们开始增加经验和深度。不是一下子完成，而是一如既往地循序渐进。同样受到市场和资金的限制，他们做出了一些小而重要的改变。
其中一个新援看清了形势，凭借经验，忍着伤痛，带球突破，将球精准地传到了偷偷切入的杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan) 手中，帮助马刺队在第四节还剩 1 分 39 秒时取得了至关重要的 5 分领先优势。
人们很容易忘记，这支马刺队已经经历了艰难的四年。很大程度上来说，由于设计上的缺乏领导和经验，在目睹了一个又一个领先优势在与实力相当的球队比赛中化为乌有之后，我们不难想象出一场与卡特总统演讲中截然不同的信任危机。
然而，在一个晚上，他们找到了它——多年来第一次看到它对他们有利。谁知道这能产生多少兆瓦的能量呢？在体育世界里，能量总有一种传染的方式，而面对更激进的解决方案，人们往往会忘记坚实基础建设的好处。
毕竟，风车的设计本身并不复杂。最大的障碍往往是成本和可靠性之间的权衡。在很多方面，美国、英国和德国的风车设计在技术上更胜一筹。（其中一些创新至今仍在风车中使用）正是由于缺乏经验，才导致他们的风车可靠性较低，因此效率也较低。
相比之下，丹麦的风车就像几代人以来一样，笨重而缓慢。但它们一直在转动——就像这支球队的花名册，就像这些球员，就像命运一样。也许，一次好的转动最终会迎来另一次好的转动。
要点
- 在我的上一篇文章中，我过早地赞扬了斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)，现在我觉得我有足够的理由来谈谈另一位技术娴熟的马刺队年轻球员，杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan)。在过去的几年里，关于索汉的讨论很多，从单手罚球到染发，再到控球后卫的冒险经历，但现在可能是时候谈谈他的优点了。除了投篮，索汉是马刺队这群年轻球员中最有天赋的球员之一。不幸的是，他的很多优点都不能以最直接的方式体现在数据统计中。很明显，索汉很享受被能干的卡斯尔包围，并得到了一位差点获得最佳防守球员的二年级球员的支持，这让休斯顿的几名球员整晚都很难受。虽然并不华丽，但索汉整晚都出现在了最让对手难受的位置上，利用他的全面性，以他那种狡猾、奸诈的方式，从外线突破到内线，再到持球人面前。此外，索汉似乎在这个休赛期认真训练了他的终结能力，因为他经常利用防守漏洞和他自己的运动能力，整晚都在篮筐附近穿梭，效果很好。对于这位似乎在大部分时间里都出现在正确位置上的球员，休斯顿毫无办法。你必须时刻注意他，但对于一个经常直言不讳地说起休斯顿火箭队的球员来说，这是一场非常出色的、多才多艺的表现，而且他是几名挺身而出的球员之一。
杰里米·索汉本赛季开局表现出色。这位 21 岁的球员在周六战胜休斯顿的比赛中高效地砍下了 17 分、12 个篮板、3 次助攻和 2 次抢断。他是一位聪明、善于把握机会的无球球员，能够抢篮板和防守。他是圣安东尼奥未来重要的基石。pic.twitter.com/dUhwqsoXom
— 布雷特·厄舍 (@UsherNBA) 2024 年 10 月 27 日
- 我要再次强调哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 和朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 在首发阵容中的无缝衔接。这两名球员都做到了他们应该做的事情，他们打出了非常稳固的防守，并且在这套在本赛季剩余时间里绝对依赖三分球的阵容中，三分球命中率高达 40%。关于本赛季马刺队的 X 因素，人们有一些热门人选，但我敢打赌，马刺队的胜负将取决于这对组合，就像取决于任何一名球员一样。当一切顺利的时候，他们就会像昨晚那样，完全不被马刺队的推特注意到。但当情况不妙时，你可以打赌，聚光灯将集中在这套首发阵容的场上空间上。这是一份吃力不讨好的工作。
再来一个，谢谢！pic.twitter.com/5yWBbvG2y8
— 圣安东尼奥马刺队 (@spurs) 2024 年 10 月 27 日
这一回合 pic.twitter.com/0UuSvSSvii
— 圣安东尼奥马刺队 (@spurs) 2024 年 10 月 27 日
让你筋疲力尽——今晚的主题曲：
Slow Turning，演唱者：约翰·希亚特 (Jon Hiatt)
点击查看原文：What we learned from the Spurs win over the Rockets
What we learned from the Spurs win over the Rockets
On windmills, and waiting
On July 15th, 1979, just 11 days after America’s 203rd anniversary, former President Jimmy Carter addressed the nation via television from the Oval Office.
It had been a rough six years for Americans; a time full of global crisis and uncertainty, with a certain familiar Baltic nation formidably shadowing the world’s affairs at seemingly every turn as the United States suffered through its most significant economic recession since the Great Depression.
Hit by a withering trifecta of high inflation, surging unemployment, and stunted economic growth (that economists now wryly refer to as ‘stagflation’), Americans had also suffered through their first protracted and losing war effort, national political scandal, and disco music. National morale was at an all-time low.
President Carter took to the airwaves in an attempt to quell the malaise of national unrest and economic and social concern. This was not the first time that he had done so. By his own admission, Carter had spoken to the American people on a number of previous occasions regarding various geopolitical and finance-related issues.
This was, for many, just another Sunday evening, and opinions are still somewhat divided on the overall effect of the speech in question. For some, this was just another announcement of failure in policy, in leadership, and in legislative action. For others, this was a political and personal sermon that cut to the very heart of the matter.
Today it’s best known as the ‘Crisis of Confidence’ speech.
Regardless, there could be no mistaking that it was yet another speech from President Carter on the subject of energy use and conservation. It was a sore subject for the many Americans who had endured a period of sustained gas rationing and a passionate point of emphasis for the Carter Administration from the very beginning.
For all the many things that have been said about the administration since, there can be little doubt that few Presidents have so actively pursued routes for alternative and sustainable energy solutions.
Chief among those quixotic pursuits was the improvement of windmills. Convinced that the secret to sustainable energy lay in the pursuit of wind energy, the Carter administration pushed a large number of their poker chips into the venture, with NASA developing a variety of experimental wind turbines.
Also facing a future of dependency on foreign oil interests, an array of European Nations joined the United States in their pursuit, triggering one of the quietest energy races of the 20th century.
It was a race that the U.S. would lose at the time, but what’s more intriguing than the loss is the nation that claimed ‘victory’ and how they did it.
Watching the Spurs lose ground after a spectacular first half against the Houston Rockets, I found myself struck by the phrase ‘Crisis of Confidence’. In that moment it couldn’t have been clearer that when playing up to their fullest capacities, these Spurs have athletic and talent-based advantages that the Rockets simply do not.
Cycling spindly players through the post, Houston was at a distinct disadvantage in and around the block for most of the night, as Victor Wembanyama made short work of Alperen Şengün and Jock Landale.
Equally disadvantaged were the efforts of Houston’s perimeter players to convert shots from beyond the arc, as the long-armed Spurs harassed them at every opportunity, taking advantage of a lack of perimeter penetration and Houston’s inability to convert in the face of The Big Bonsai From North Versailles.
Indeed, the Spurs played some of their best defense in half a decade against the Rockets in the first two frames. Then, gradually, almost of their own accord, they began to fall apart.
A crisis of confidence indeed. Something that, in the early and mid 1970’s a certain northern European nation lacked.
It was the small and otherwise quiet country of Denmark that would make the great sustainable wind energy leap of the time, over more well-funded and powerful nations, finishing construction on the world’s first megawatt wind turbine in the Spring of 1978, just a year before Carter’s speech.
That they had done so in the face of remarkable economic disadvantages was all the more stunning. But for Danes, this seemed the only way that they could have succeeded — by adhering to the policy theory of Charles E. Lindblom known as Incrementalism.
Basically stated, Incrementalism is the act of creating larger changes through small, gradual steps, rather than a larger-scale and more drastic form of strategic planning.
Limited by their resources and comparatively minor GDP, the Danes were all but forced to commit themselves to a longer, more gradual track of improvement. Unlike many of the other nations involved, the Denmark had long been committed to the pursuit of improved wind energy due to longstanding energy needs for their agrarian economy, and thusly had a better understanding of the obstacles involved in the process.
As the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany failed to rapidly develop competitive machines, the Danes patiently built better and better windmills using their more incremental approach, culminating in their grand achievement in ‘78. By the turn of the millennium, many of the top windmill manufacturers in the world were Danish in origin, an area they remain an international leader and innovator in to this day.
It was a contrast that came immediately to mind as I watched a Rockets team that ownership has tried to microwave into relevancy fight desperately against an even younger Spurs team playing only their second game with a battle-tested point guard at the helm in several years.
Quietly, thoughtfully, and in an often painfully gradual manner, the Spurs have put on their own showcase of Incrementalism. Agonizingly, they traded away some of the best parts of their last good teams, then dedicated themselves to the tank; to the most embarrassing and half-hearted process of talent acquisition.
Then they drafted their centerpiece and spent a year test-driving him. Now, they have begun to add experience and depth. Not all at once, but as always, gradually. Similarly limited by their market and their funds, they’ve made small but important changes.
And one of those changes, seeing the moment for what it was and applying experience, half-hobbled and half-darted through the lane, dropping a pinpoint pass into the hands of a stealthily-cutting Jeremy Sochan to give the Spurs a critical five point lead with 1:39 left in the fourth.
It’s easy to forget that these Spurs have had a rough four years of their own. Largely leaderless and experience-less by design, having watched lead after lead evaporate against even the most equally hapless of teams, it’s not hard to conceive of a very different crisis of confidence from the one in President Carter’s speech.
For one night though, they found it — saw it demonstrated in their favor for the first time in years. Who knows how many megawatts that might generate? Energy has a way of being contagious in the world of sports, and the benefits of solid foundational construction has a way of being forgotten in the face of more radical solutions.
After all, windmill design is in-and-of-itself not very complicated. The largest obstacle is often just the tradeoff between cost and reliability. In many ways the U.S., U.K., and German windmill designs were technically superior. (Some of those innovations are still in use in windmills today) It was a lack of experience that made their windmills less reliable, and therefore less effective.
By comparison, the Danish windmills were heavy and ponderous, as they had been for generations. But they kept on turning — just like this roster, just like these players, just like the fates. Maybe one good turn will finally deserve another.
Takeaways
- Having spent some of my last article in premature praise of Stephon Castle, I feel vindicated enough to talk about another one of the toolsy Spurs youths, Jeremy Sochan. There’s been a lot said about Sochan over the last few years, from one-handed free throws, to dyed hair, to point-guard misadventures, but now it might be time to talk about the good. Outside of shooting, Sochan is one of the most gifted players in a group of Spurs youngsters. Unfortunately, a lot of that doesn’t lend itself to the box score in the most straightforward of ways. Clearly enjoying being book-ended by the capable Castle, and backed by a sophomore who nearly won DPOY, Sochan made the night miserable for several Houston players. It wasn’t flashy, but Sochan managed to appear in the most inconvenient of places all night for the opposition, using the versatility to dart from the perimeter, to the lane, to the ball-handler, in his snakey, smirking sort of way. Additionally, Sochan appears to have put some real work into his finishing this offseason, as he regularly took advantage of defensive lapses and his own athleticism to slide in and around the bucket all night, to great effect. Houston had no answer for a player who seemed to be in the right place at the right time for most of the evening. You have to keep your eyes on him at all times, but it was an outstandingly varied performance from a player who’s often been very vocal about the Houston Rockets, and was one of several players to rise to the occasion.
Jeremy Sochan is off to an outstanding start this season. The 21-year-old put up an efficient 17-12-3-2 Saturday in the win over Houston. Smart, opportunistic off-ball player who rebounds and defends. Important building block for San Antonio’s future. pic.twitter.com/dUhwqsoXom
— Brett Usher (@ UsherNBA) October 27, 2024
- I can’t say enough about how seamless a fit Harrison Barnes and Julian Champagnie are in the opening lineup. Both players did exactly what was needed in playing very solid defense and shooting 40% from deep in a lineup that is going to absolutely depend on that for the rest of the season. There’s been some popular choices for x-factors for the Spurs this season, but I’d be willing to wager that the Spurs win column will depend on this tandem as much as any single player. When things are right, they’ll have a night like last night, where they escape the notice of Spurs Twitter entirely. But when things are off, you can bet the spotlight will be on the spacing of that opening group. Talk about a thankless job.
another one, thank you! pic.twitter.com/5yWBbvG2y8
— San Antonio Spurs (@ spurs) October 27, 2024
this sequence pic.twitter.com/0UuSvSSvii
— San Antonio Spurs (@ spurs) October 27, 2024
Playing You Out – The Theme Song of the Evening:
Slow Turning by Jon Hiatt
By Devon Birdsong, via Pounding The Rock