By Jeremy Woo | ESPN, 2024-10-24 21:32:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
让我们开门见山——与过去那些球星云集的选秀大会相比，人们对 2024 年 NBA 新秀的期望值并不算高。但这并不意味着在周二开赛的 2024-25 赛季中，没有哪个一年级球员注定要做出重大贡献。
在 3 月下旬之前，对 2024 年选秀大会的动态评估将成为 NBA 一个有趣的次要情节。哪些新秀会让人眼前一亮，比如洛杉矶湖人队前锋道尔顿·克内希特？哪些人是最有可能脱颖而出的早期热门人选，比如圣安东尼奥马刺队后卫斯蒂芬·卡斯尔？我们能否确定，正如联盟中许多人之前认为的那样，这次选秀大会真的缺乏整体天赋吗？
让我们深入探讨一下 2024 年新秀的赛季初期展望，对其中六位预计会立即产生影响的顶级球员进行排名。此外，我还将分享我听到的关于某些新秀的消息，从可能被证明是最有利的情况（瑞安·邓恩在菲尼克斯太阳队的投篮命中率）到球队如何处理早期角色和期望（参见布朗尼·詹姆斯在湖人队的情况）。
但首先，我们先来看看排名前六的新秀。
跳转到某部分：
前六名新秀 | 遗憾落选 | 布朗尼
值得关注的情况 | 我听到的消息
1. 扎克·埃迪 (Zach Edey)，中锋，孟菲斯灰熊队
选秀顺位： 普渡大学，第 9 顺位
球探对埃迪最常说的话： 他的得分能力（上赛季场均 25.2 分）将在下一个级别得到体现，但他的防守能力呢？
ESPN 梦幻篮球预测： 14.4 分、6.7 个篮板、1.1 次助攻、1.6 次盖帽
埃迪将在本赛季为灰熊队首发出任中锋，这为他提供了一个巨大的平台来展现自己的实力，并帮助孟菲斯赢得胜利。他的工作量最终有多大将取决于他在防守端如何适应 NBA，因为对手球队必然会试图把他拉出油漆区，并对他进行考验。
在周三的第一场比赛中，埃迪表现平平，他上场 15 分钟就犯满离场，但随着他逐渐适应比赛，以及灰熊队找到最佳的利用方式，情况应该会有所改善。预计他巨大的体型（7 英尺 4 英寸，299 磅）和篮筐附近的终结能力将立即帮助到孟菲斯，即使他扮演的角色更多的是改变节奏。
2. 里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)，控球后卫/得分后卫，休斯顿火箭队
选秀顺位： 肯塔基大学，第 3 顺位
球探对谢泼德最常说的话： 体型（6 英尺 3 英寸，182 磅）可能是他的一个限制，但他会最大限度地发挥自己的天赋
ESPN 梦幻篮球预测： 14.8 分、3.2 个篮板、4.6 次助攻、2.1 个三分球
在 7 月份拉斯维加斯举行的夏季联赛中，谢泼德上演了一场投篮和组织进攻的表演，抢尽了风头。现在的问题是，在一个拥挤的火箭队后场阵容中，他会获得多少上场时间，这个阵容包括冉冉升起的新星阿门·汤普森和杰伦·格林（他刚刚签署了一份续约合同）以及老将弗雷德·范弗利特。
谢泼德在本赛季初将替补出场，扮演的角色类似于他上赛季在肯塔基大学的角色。他的表现将决定这些上场时间如何演变，但从长远来看，他仍然是这个级别中最有趣的球员之一，因为他是一位有天赋的射手和老练的组织者，能让队友变得更好。
3. 扎卡里·里萨谢 (Zaccharie Risacher)，小前锋，亚特兰大老鹰队
选秀顺位： 法国，第 1 顺位
球探对里萨谢最常说的话： 他的技术特点在任何地方都能适用
ESPN 梦幻篮球预测： 12.5 分、4.9 个篮板、2.3 次助攻、1.1 个三分球
如果说有可能出现状元秀默默无闻的情况，那就是这样。尽管与过去的状元秀相比，围绕在他身上的炒作要少得多，但里萨谢在亚特兰大应该会获得很多有用的上场时间，因为他是一名出色的防守球员、可靠的空间型球员和终结者，可以在不占用球权的情况下创造价值。
他在季前赛的两场比赛中都有稳定的表现，并在周三的比赛中出场 19 分钟，表现平平；他不会在本赛季初首发出场，但如果他表现出色，可能会从德安德烈·亨特等人手中抢走上场时间。
4. 斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)，控球后卫/得分后卫，圣安东尼奥马刺队
选秀顺位： 康涅狄格大学，第 4 顺位
球探对卡斯尔最常说的话： 他拥有巨大的攻防两端潜力——如果他能投进足够多的三分球的话
ESPN 梦幻篮球预测： 14.9 分、3.1 个篮板、3.7 次助攻、1.1 个三分球
为卡斯尔找到充足的上场时间符合马刺队的长期利益，而且由于德文·瓦塞尔在赛季初受伤，卡斯尔将立即获得额外的上场时间。卡斯尔在季前赛中表现出色，他将扮演一个组合角色替补出场，在提供全面的外线防守的同时，获得组织进攻和无球进攻的经验。
眼前的考验是，他是否能投进足够多的三分球，让对手不敢掉以轻心——他在四场季前赛中总共出手了 16 次三分球。
5. 亚历克斯·萨尔 (Alex Sarr)，大前锋/中锋，华盛顿奇才队
选秀顺位： 法国，第 2 顺位
球探对萨尔最常说的话： 他拥有惊人的身体天赋，但他还在不断进步
ESPN 梦幻篮球预测： 11.6 分、6.4 个篮板、1.1 次助攻、1.4 次盖帽
重建中的奇才队本赛季将再次进入乐透抽签大会，他们将给萨尔提供充足的培养时间，帮助他适应比赛。他在季前赛中有一些亮点，尤其是在三场比赛中 13 投 7 中的三分球命中率。
这并非一帆风顺，因为他在防守端的进步远远超过了进攻端，但华盛顿希望看到他充满活力地比赛，在后防线上成为一名更好的沟通者，并且比他之前的篮板球效率更高。进攻端的成长可能会比较缓慢，但幸运的是，19 岁的萨尔在一个可以给他足够耐心的环境中打球。
6. 多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan)，中锋，波特兰开拓者队
选秀顺位： 康涅狄格大学，第 7 顺位
球探对克林根最常说的话： 他是 24 届新秀中最好的油漆区守护者
ESPN 梦幻篮球预测： 10.0 分、5.7 个篮板、1.9 次助攻、2.2 次盖帽
克林根在本赛季将与现任首发中锋德安德烈·艾顿组成轮换阵容，此前他在季前赛中打出了一场最引人注目的比赛，在对阵犹他爵士队的比赛中，他拿下 14 分和 20 个篮板（其中 10 个是进攻篮板），还有 4 次盖帽。
开拓者队当然也在考虑长远发展，他们希望给克林根明确的上场时间，但阵容情况可能决定了他的上场时间上限——至少目前是这样。在周三的首秀中，他出场 13 分钟，这表明了他在场上时将是一位多么有影响力的防守者，而且他应该会受益于这种不会让他在任何方面过度劳累的环境。
遗憾落选
道尔顿·克内希特 (Dalton Knecht)，后卫，湖人队： 克内希特在季前赛中砍下 35 分的出色表现预示着他有望在湖人队的轮换阵容中站稳脚跟，而且他在周二的首秀中替补出场 16 分钟，表现稳健。湖人队想要争夺季后赛席位，最好的机会就是让克内希特成为一名可靠的二号得分手——湖人队的阵容深度并不出众——凭借他的投篮能力，他应该会得到很多机会。他是一位技术娴熟的球员，如果一切顺利，他最终可能会成为联盟中最具影响力的新秀之一。
值得关注的情况：夏洛特，菲尼克斯
蒂贾尼·萨劳恩 (Tidjane Salaun)，前锋，夏洛特黄蜂队。 19 岁的萨劳恩是目前联盟中最年轻的拥有正式球员资格的球员，在选秀大会之前，他被广泛认为是一名需要培养的球员。考虑到他有限的高水平比赛经验，这是可以理解的，但这并没有阻止黄蜂队在第 6 顺位选择他，对他寄予厚望。
到目前为止，这种信心已经得到了回报，因为他在季前赛的上场时间里看起来比预期要成熟，五场比赛场均得到 11.8 分和 7.2 个篮板，值得注意的是，他在 37 次三分球出手中命中了 15 次。虽然仍在学习比赛，但萨劳恩的活力、体型和全面性使他能够在季前赛中做出积极的贡献，而且他远距离投篮的命中率对黄蜂队来说也是令人鼓舞的。
虽然黄蜂队还有比他更有经验的老将——萨劳恩在周三晚上的比赛中没有出场——但他可以在本赛季的过程中赢得一个轮换阵容的位置，特别是如果黄蜂队考虑到更长远的未来，并在赛季进行的过程中转向更年轻的球员的话。成功地快速跟踪他的发展并选中一名高顺位球员将有利于他们在新教练查尔斯·李的带领下重建球队。
瑞安·邓恩 (Ryan Dunn)，前锋，菲尼克斯太阳队。 季前赛中最令人惊讶的发现之一——而且可能意义重大——是太阳队新秀邓恩（第 28 顺位）在五场比赛中出手了 30 次三分球，并命中了其中的 13 次（43%）。他在对阵丹佛掘金队的一场比赛中投进了 6 个三分球，这与他几个月前的名声大相径庭。需要说明的是，他上赛季在弗吉尼亚大学总共只投进了 8 个三分球。
邓恩是选秀大会上防守最好的球员之一，但他的选秀顺位在本赛季的过程中有所下降，主要是因为人们担心他的远距离投篮能力（在大学里，他的三分球命中率为 23%，场均出手次数不到一次）以及他在 NBA 进攻端找到自己定位的能力。抛开积极的结果不谈，仅仅是邓恩能够以这样的出手次数完成投篮就说明了他的信心正在不断增强。
我们将拭目以待，看他这究竟是昙花一现还是真正的进步，但这具有潜在的意义——如果邓恩能够投进足够多的球，从而在新秀赛季就获得稳定的轮换上场时间，这对菲尼克斯来说将是一次重大的胜利。邓恩和 fellow rookie 奥索·伊格霍达罗将会得到贡献自己的机会。考虑到太阳队由球星组成的高薪阵容以及补充阵容深度的灵活性有限，他们需要他在防守端立即展现出价值。
布朗尼·詹姆斯本赛季的角色定位是什么？
在湖人队周二的比赛中，詹姆斯与他的父亲一起短暂出场，创造了一个历史性的时刻——其中包括这位新秀的 3 分钟比赛时间——但如果这成为常态，那将是令人惊讶的。继续降低对布朗尼·詹姆斯的期望值吧，他参加了湖人队的全部六场季前赛，但表现并不十分出色，尽管他在 10 月 18 日输给金州勇士队的比赛中拿下了 14 分。湖人队给了他一份标准合同，但这并不意味着他们会为了球队的胜利而强行给他安排有意义的上场时间，因为包括克内希特和马克斯·克里斯蒂在内的更优秀的年轻球员都可以在替补席上做出贡献。
对詹姆斯来说，打发展联盟比赛以获得上场时间的最佳去处将是南湾湖人队，这不应该被视为一件坏事。虽然现实情况是，作为勒布朗·詹姆斯的儿子，他将继续受到外界的关注，但他在发展方面所面临的期望应该与任何其他二轮秀一样，从历史上看，二轮秀长期留在 NBA 的可能性微乎其微。
尽管如此，还有比把赌注押在詹姆斯身上赢得年度最佳新秀更有意义的事情要做，而这种情况似乎正在发生。
更多内容：勒布朗和布朗尼的 NBA 历史之路
我听到的关于……的消息
几位名不见经传的新秀可能会在早期获得机会。
伊夫·米西 （新奥尔良鹈鹕队，第 21 顺位）应该有机会在某个时候进入轮换阵容，因为鹈鹕队本赛季只带了两名真正意义上的中锋，另一位是老将丹尼尔·泰斯。
他在周三的首秀中表现出色，出场 23 分钟，得到 12 分、7 个篮板和 3 次盖帽，与泰斯轮换出场，不过那是因为锡安·威廉姆森缺阵。
鹈鹕队需要在锡安·威廉姆森身后增加篮筐保护，而这位能飞善扣的米西在季前赛中完成了几次令人印象深刻的空中接力和盖帽，在贝勒大学效力了一个赛季后，他看起来比预期更加自如和成熟。
新奥尔良将尝试使用小球阵容，以最大限度地发挥球员的天赋——这可能会最大限度地减少对场上 5 名球员的需求——但考虑到缺乏其他选择，如果米西继续在早期被安排上场，这并不奇怪——特别是考虑到前锋特雷·墨菲三世目前在鹈鹕队的伤病名单中。
迪伦·琼斯 （俄克拉荷马城雷霆队，第 26 顺位）是执行副总裁兼总经理萨姆·普雷斯蒂个人非常渴望得到的球员，为了在选秀之夜得到他，他不惜一切代价，将五个未来的二轮签交易给了纽约尼克斯队。
虽然雷霆队拥有联盟中最深的板凳深度之一，凯森·华莱士、以赛亚·乔和亚伦·威金斯都需要上场时间，但以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因的受伤可能会导致主教练马克·戴格诺特在短期内更多地使用小球阵容，而切特·霍姆格伦和杰林·威廉姆斯（他因腿筋受伤缺席了季前赛）是球队名单上的两名名义上的大个子球员。这可能会为琼斯打开一条道路，他的位置多面性和篮板球能力使他能够很好地适应不同的阵容。
点击查看原文：2024-25 NBA rookie rankings: Zach Edey, Reed Sheppard, more
2024-25 NBA rookie rankings: Zach Edey, Reed Sheppard, more
Let’s get this part out of the way – the expectations for the 2024 NBA rookie class aren’t sky-high compared to past drafts that had more star power. That doesn’t mean there aren’t first-year players ticketed to make major contributions in the 2024-25 season that tipped off Tuesday.
Evaluating the 2024 draft on the fly promises to be an interesting NBA subplot all the way through late March. Which rookies will surprise, such as Los Angeles Lakers forward Dalton Knecht? Who are the top early candidates to break through, such as San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle? And will we be able to determine if the draft truly lacked in overall talent as many around the league previously thought?
Let’s dive into the early-season outlook for the 2024 rookie class, ranking six of the top players who are slated to make an impact right away. And, I’ll share what I’m hearing about certain rookies, from situations that could prove most beneficial (Ryan Dunn’s 3-point attempts with the Phoenix Suns) to how teams are handling early roles and expectations (see, Bronny James with the Lakers).
But first, we begin with the top six rookies.
Jump to a section:\
Top six rookies | Just missed | Bronny\
Situations to watch | What I’m hearing
1. Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies
Drafted: No. 9, Purdue\
Scouts most often said this about Edey: His scoring will translate (25.2 points per game last season) at the next level, but will his defense?\
ESPN fantasy projections: 14.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.6 BPG
Edey opens the season starting at center for the Grizzlies, giving him a huge platform to produce and contribute to getting Memphis some wins. How big that workload becomes will hinge on how he adjusts to the NBA defensively, as opposing teams inevitably try to pull him out of the paint and test him.
It was a quiet first game for Edey Wednesday, as he played 15 minutes and fouled out, but things should improve as he gets comfortable and the Grizzlies figure out how best to utilize him. Expect his immense size (7-foot-4, 299 pounds) and finishing ability around the basket to help Memphis right away, even if he’s playing more of a change-up role.
2. Reed Sheppard, PG/SG, Houston Rockets
Drafted: No. 3, Kentucky\
Scouts most often said this about Sheppard: Size (6-3, 182) might be a limitation, but he’ll maximize his talent\
ESPN fantasy projections: 14.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.6 APG, 2.1 3PG
Sheppard put on a shooting and playmaking display, stealing the show during summer league in Las Vegas in July. The question now is what type of minutes he’ll carve out in a crowded Rockets backcourt that includes the rising Amen Thompson and Jalen Green (who just signed an extension) and veteran Fred VanVleet.
Sheppard is coming off the bench to start the season, filling a role similar to what he played last season at Kentucky. How he fares will determine how those minutes evolve, but long term, he remains one of the most intriguing players in this class, as a gifted shooter and crafty playmaker who makes teammates better.
3. Zaccharie Risacher, SF, Atlanta Hawks
Drafted: No. 1, France\
Scouts most often said this about Risacher: His skill set translates anywhere\
ESPN fantasy projections: 12.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.1 3PG
If it’s possible for a No. 1 pick to fly under the radar, this is what it looks like. Despite the lack of hype around him compared to past top picks, Risacher should be ticketed for a lot of useful minutes in Atlanta, as a plus defender, capable floor spacer and finisher who can add value without dominating touches.
He turned in two steady preseason performances and logged 19 minutes in an inauspicious debut Wednesday; he won’t start to begin the season, but if he plays well, could wrest time away from De’Andre Hunter and others.
4. Stephon Castle, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs
Drafted: No. 4, UConn\
Scouts most often said this about Castle: He has great two-way upside – if he makes enough 3s\
ESPN fantasy projections: 14.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.1 3PG
It’s in the Spurs’ long-term interest to find Castle plenty of playing time, and extra minutes will be available right away with Devin Vassell injured to start the season. Castle was productive in the preseason and figures to come off the bench in a combo role, getting a mix of playmaking reps and off-ball experience while providing versatile perimeter defense.
The immediate test will be whether he’ll make enough shots from deep to keep opponents honest – he took 16 shots from beyond the arc in four preseason games.
5. Alex Sarr, PF/C, Washington Wizards
Drafted: No. 2, France\
Scouts most often said this about Sarr: He has amazing physical gifts, but he’s a work in progress\
ESPN fantasy projections: 11.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.4 BPG
The rebuilding Wizards are headed back into the lottery sweepstakes this season, and will feed Sarr plenty of developmental minutes to help him adjust. He had some good flashes in preseason, notably making 7 of 13 3-point attempts in three games.
It won’t all be smooth sailing because he is much further along on the defensive end than as a scorer, but Washington will want to see him play with energy, become a better communicator on the back line and rebound at a better rate than he has historically. The offensive growth might come slower, but fortunately, Sarr, 19, landed in a situation that can afford him ideal patience.
6. Donovan Clingan, C, Portland Trail Blazers
Drafted: No. 7, UConn\
Scouts most often said this about Clingan: He’s the best paint protector in the '24 class\
ESPN fantasy projections: 10.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.9 APG, 2.2 BPG
Clingan enters this season in a platoon with incumbent starter Deandre Ayton after turning in one of the more notable games of the preseason, piling up 14 points and 20 rebounds (10 of them offensive) with four blocks against the Utah Jazz.
The Blazers are certainly thinking about the long term and will want to give Clingan defined minutes, but the roster situation likely dictates a cap on his playing time – at least for now. After logging 13 minutes in his debut Wednesday, it showed how he’ll be an impactful defender when he’s on the floor and should benefit from a situation where he won’t be overstretched in any way.
Just missed
Dalton Knecht, G, Lakers: Knecht’s 35-point preseason performance bodes well for his chances of finding a foothold in the Lakers’ rotation, and he chipped in a solid 16 minutes in his debut Tuesday off the bench. L.A.'s best chances of competing for the playoffs involve Knecht getting comfortable as a secondary scorer – the Lakers aren’t remarkably deep – and he should get a long look thanks to his shooting ability. He’s a polished player and could wind up as one of the league’s more impactful rookies if things break right.
Situations to watch in Charlotte, Phoenix
Tidjane Salaun, F, Charlotte Hornets. Saluan, at 19 and currently the youngest player in the league with a full-time roster spot, was widely labeled as a project player headed into the draft. That was understandable considering his limited high-level experience, and it didn’t stop the Hornets from taking a big swing on him at No. 6.
That confidence has so far been rewarded, as he has looked ahead of schedule in preseason minutes, averaging 11.8 points and 7.2 boards in five games and notably making 15 of 37 3-point attempts. While still learning the game, Salaun’s motor, size and versatility enabled him to make positive contributions in the preseason, and the rate at which he’s making shots from range is encouraging for Charlotte.
While the Hornets have veterans ahead of him – Salaun didn’t check in on Wednesday night – he could carve out a rotation spot over the course of the season, particularly if Charlotte thinks more long term and pivots toward younger players as the season goes on. Successfully fast-tracking his development and nailing a high-leverage selection would be a boon for their rebuild under new coach Charles Lee.
Ryan Dunn, F, Phoenix Suns. One of the most surprising developments from preseason – and one that might be meaningful – is that Suns rookie Dunn (No. 28 pick) attempted 30 3-pointers in five games, and made 13 of them (43%). He hit six in one game against the Denver Nuggets, a far cry from where his reputation sat a few months ago. For key context, he made eight 3-pointers total last season at Virginia.
Dunn, who is on the short list of the draft’s best defensive players, saw his draft stock drop over the course of the season largely because of concerns about his long-range shooting (23% in college on less than one attempt per game) and his ability to find a role on offense in the NBA. Positive results aside, the simple fact that Dunn is getting shots up with that type of volume speaks to his growing confidence.
We’ll see whether this is a mirage or a legitimate leap forward, but it’s potentially significant – if Dunn can make enough shots to earn consistent rotation minutes as a rookie, it’s a major coup for Phoenix. Dunn and fellow rookie Oso Ighodaro will get changes to contribute. The Suns need him to return value on the defensive end out of the gate, considering their star-heavy salary structure and limited flexibility to add depth.
What will Bronny James’ role be this season?
James checked in briefly alongside his father for a historic moment – which included 3 minutes of game action for the rookie – in the Lakers’ win on Tuesday, but it would be a surprise if that becomes the norm. Continue to temper expectations for Bronny James, who appeared in all six of the Lakers’ preseason games, but wasn’t particularly effective, although he did score 14 points in a blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors on Oct. 18. The Lakers gave him a standard contract, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to force-feed him meaningful minutes at the expense of team success, with better young players including Knecht and Max Christie positioned to contribute off the bench.
The best place for James to play developmental minutes will be with the South Bay Lakers in the G League, which shouldn’t be viewed as a negative thing. While the reality is that he will continue to draw scrutiny as LeBron James’ son, the expectations he faces in terms of development should be the same as any other late second-round pick, selections that have historically been long shots to stick in the NBA long term.
With all that said, there are better things to do than place your bets on James to win Rookie of the Year, which, it seems, is happening anyway.
MORE: LeBron and Bronny’s path to NBA history
What I’m hearing about …
A couple of less-heralded rookies who could earn early opportunities.
Yves Missi (drafted No. 21 by the New Orleans Pelicans) should get a chance to break into the rotation at some point, considering the Pelicans are carrying only two true centers into the season, the other being veteran Daniel Theis.
He had a positive debut Wednesday, logging 23 minutes, scoring 12 points with seven rebounds and three blocks while rotating with Theis, although that came with Zion Williamson out.
The Pelicans have a need for rim protection behind Zion Williamson, and the high-flying Missi made a number of impressive plays as an acrobatic finisher and shot blocker in preseason, looking more comfortable and advanced than expected after one season at Baylor.
New Orleans will experiment with small-ball lineups that maximize the roster’s talent – potentially minimizing the need for a 5-man on the floor – but considering the dearth of other options, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Missi continues to be thrown into the mix early – particularly with forward Trey Murphy III currently among the injured Pelicans.
Dillon Jones (drafted No. 26 by the Oklahoma City Thunder) was a player executive vice president and general manager Sam Presti personally coveted and went out of his way to acquire on draft night, dealing five future second-round picks to the New York Knicks to make the selection.
And while the Thunder have one of the league’s deeper benches with Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins among those in need of minutes, Isaiah Hartenstein’s injury could lead to more small-ball looks from coach Mark Daigneault in the short term, with Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams (who missed the preseason with a hamstring injury) the two nominal bigs on the roster. That could open up a pathway for Jones, whose positional versatility and rebounding chops enable him to fit nicely into different lineups.
By Jeremy Woo | ESPN, via ESPN