By Casey Coggins | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-10-20 04:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
德文·瓦塞尔上赛季的表现有多出色，人们并没有给予足够的关注。
想象一下，一名球员场均能得到 20 分、4.7 次助攻和 4 个篮板，投篮命中率为 47.4%，三分命中率为 37.4%，罚球命中率高达 80%，同时还能贡献 1.2 次抢断和 0.4 次盖帽。作为参考，上赛季只有 25 名球员场均至少得到 20 分、4 个篮板和 4 次助攻，其中 10 人入选了最佳阵容。以下是达到这些数据的球员完整名单——毫无疑问，这些统计数据似乎为评判一名球员的水平设定了一个很好的标准。凯尔·库兹马是《The Ringer》最近发布的 百大球员排行榜 中排名最低的球员，而他甚至没有进入 ESPN 的榜单。
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如果有人告诉你，你想象中的这名球员是德文·瓦塞尔（Devin Vassell）在凯尔登·约翰逊替补出场后的 46 场比赛中的数据，你会怎么想？感觉人们可能并没有谈论他上赛季的出色表现，对吧？尤其是当你将他与俄克拉荷马雷霆队的杰伦·威廉姆斯（Jalen Williams）这样的球员进行比较时，这种感觉就更加强烈了。《The Ringer》将威廉姆斯排在第 35 位，ESPN 则将他排在第 44 位。而这两家媒体分别将瓦塞尔排在第 71 位和未进入榜单（除了维克托·文班亚马（Victor Wembanyama）之外，ESPN 百强榜单中唯一一位马刺球员是排名第 99 的克里斯·保罗）。
显然，与效力于鱼腩球队的球员相比，那些为争冠球队做出贡献的球员的评价会更高。但如果人们只用这一点来区分球员，那我们就会得出切特·霍姆格伦比文班亚马更强的结论。球队环境、预期和目标都会影响这些讨论，所以我们应该因为马刺在文班下场后每百回合净负 10 分而看低瓦塞尔吗？这就是为什么我们需要更深入地研究数据。
在我们继续之前，需要注意一点：我们将使用前面提到的杰伦·威廉姆斯与瓦塞尔进行比较。这并不是说他的排名不合理，因为“J-Dub”（杰伦·威廉姆斯昵称）是一位非常非常出色的球员，他配得上这样的排名。这仅仅是为了指出瓦塞尔比他更接近 CJ 麦科勒姆（上图中 25 名球员之一，《The Ringer》排名第 76 位，ESPN 排名第 84 位）。
考虑到我们只使用了凯尔登在赛季第 28 场比赛替补出场后瓦塞尔的比赛数据，我们来看看他们整个赛季的基本数据，可以发现“J-Dub”在各个方面都占据优势。
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他在基础数据上略胜一筹，但在进阶数据和投篮效率方面则占据明显优势。这里没有显示的是，“J-Dub”的效率值（PER）为 19.1 对 15.7，真实命中率为 62.1% 对 57.8%，正负值为 2.3 对 0。同样，所有这些都表明“J-Dub”非常出色，排名靠前是有原因的。
这就是为什么我们要关注瓦塞尔在凯尔登替补出场后作为球员的表现。同样重要的是，要看看这两个人和谁一起出场。与“J-Dub”一起出场时间最长的五人阵容是他与约什·吉迪、吕冈茨·多尔特、切特和谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大一起，他们在 63 场比赛中出场了近 800 分钟（场均 12.7 分钟）。这五人在那段时间里每百回合净胜 10 分。在“J-Dub”出场时间最长的 10 套阵容中，他与切特或谢伊同时在场，这三个人都在其中一半的阵容中。当你看到瓦塞尔出场时间最长的五人阵容时，你会发现 stark contrast。
瓦塞尔出场时间最长的阵容最终成为了球队的首发阵容：瓦塞尔、朱利安·尚帕尼、特雷·琼斯、杰里米·索汉（Jeremy Sochan）和文班。这五个人在 37 场比赛中一起出场了 391 分钟（场均 10.9 分钟）。在这段时间里，马刺的净效率实际上是正值，为每百回合 +4.1 分。瓦塞尔出场时间第二长的阵容是用凯尔登换下了尚帕尼，他们在 39 场比赛中的 141 分钟里，马刺的净效率为每百回合 +20.5 分。阵容实验、出场时间限制以及整体缺乏深度是马刺战绩不佳以及瓦塞尔进阶数据不够亮眼的原因。
由于球队整体缺乏天赋和投篮能力（雷霆场均出手 34.2 次三分，命中率为 38.9%，而马刺场均出手 36.4 次，命中率为 34.7%），瓦塞尔每晚都面临着艰巨的任务。使用 bball-index.com，我们可以创建一个排行榜，看看谁在不同情况下拥有最佳的投篮质量。在下表中，我们列出了上赛季至少出场 751 分钟的 305 名球员的以下统计数据：总体投篮质量、三分球投篮质量、一对一投篮质量、篮下投篮质量、自主进攻投篮质量、半场投篮质量、挡拆持球人投篮质量、定点投篮质量、无球投篮质量和单打投篮质量。
以下是瓦塞尔在每个类别中的排名：
总体投篮质量：282（与卢卡·东契奇并列）
三分球投篮质量：270（与泰瑞斯·马克西并列）
一对一投篮质量：225（与杰·克劳德并列）
篮下投篮质量：184（与克里斯·保罗并列）
自主进攻投篮质量：287（与锡安·威廉姆森和杰夫·格林并列）
半场投篮质量：284（与布兰登·米勒并列）
挡拆持球人投篮质量：125（与其他 46 人并列）
定点投篮质量：246（与其他 21 人并列）
无球投篮质量：277
单打投篮质量：233（与其他 10 人并列）
考虑到这些数据没有提供比赛背景，这并不一定能说明瓦塞尔创造良好投篮机会的能力或无能。防守他的球员是谁，场上还有谁，以及他防守者身后的防守是什么样的，这些都会影响瓦塞尔的投篮质量。然而，这些数据确实告诉我们，考虑到瓦塞尔的投篮质量如此之差，我们应该对他以这样的投篮命中率场均得到 19.5 分印象深刻。
如果你好奇“J-Dub”在这些投篮质量类别中的排名，请看这里：
总体投篮质量：215
三分球投篮质量：121
一对一投篮质量：130
篮下投篮质量：147
自主进攻投篮质量：217
半场投篮质量：226
挡拆持球人投篮质量：172
定点投篮质量：160
无球投篮质量：37
单打投篮质量：120
“J-Dub”真正与众不同的地方在于防守端。虽然瓦塞尔在防守端也不差，但他面对的防守任务并不像“J-Dub”那样艰巨。不仅如此，凭借着身高、力量和运动能力，“J-Dub”可以防守更多不同的位置。也许随着马刺休赛期的引援以及进攻端负担的减轻，我们会看到瓦塞尔在防守端更加闪耀。就目前而言，这两个人在防守端并没有太多可比性。
这让我们回到进攻端，看看我们本赛季对瓦塞尔的期待。拥有更多能够控球并将球队带入进攻节奏的球员将会分担他的一些压力。这不是一件坏事。他将能够更频繁地通过掩护获得机会，作为一名定点投手，并在轮转防守中突破到油漆区。当他承担起组织进攻的任务时，对手也不应该再像以前那样放心地包夹他的队友。想想文班每次在场上时都会吸引多少注意力——二年级的文班仅仅是他的存在就会为瓦塞尔创造更多的进攻空间。
综上所述，看到瓦塞尔场均得分达到 23 分以上也不会令人感到意外。在你认为这是一个疯狂的预测之前，请记住有五支球队的两名球员场均得分至少达到 23 分（如果你算上乔尔·恩比德和朱利叶斯·兰德尔，这个数字将达到七支，这两名球员上赛季的出场次数都不到 50 场）。还记得瓦塞尔在过去 46 场比赛中场均得到 20 分吗？有趣的是，文班从同一时间点到赛季结束也打了 46 场比赛。在那段时间里，他场均得到 23 分。瓦塞尔和文班都有很大的空间来提高他们的得分输出，因为他们将比上赛季更容易得分，从而提高投篮效率。更不用说他们还有可能更多地站上罚球线。
由于马刺本赛季的胜场数可能会比上赛季多不少，而瓦塞尔将在其中扮演重要角色，因此他将得到更多的关注。到本赛季结束时，全国的 NBA 球迷和媒体都会谈论他的出色表现。也许我们甚至会看到他在一些排名榜单上火箭般蹿升。
点击查看原文：Why Devin Vassell is one of the NBA’s most underrated players
Why Devin Vassell is one of the NBA’s most underrated players
Not enough attention is being paid to how good Devin Vassell was last season
Imagine a player averaging 20 points, 4.7 assists, and 4 rebounds per game on 47.4 FG%, 37.4 3P%, and 80 FT%, while also adding in 1.2 steals and 0.4 blocks. For reference, only 25 players averaged 20, 4, and 4 last season, and 10 of those landed on an All-NBA team. Here’s the full list of players who hit those marks — needless to say, those statistics seem to set a good bar to determine how good a player is. Kyle Kuzma is the lowest ranked player in The Ringer’s recently released Top 100 Player Rankings, and he wasn’t ranked in ESPN’s.
What if somebody told you the player you imagined was Devin Vassell over the 46 games he played after Keldon Johnson moved to the bench? Feels like people might not be talking about how good he actually was last season, right? Especially when you compare him to a player like Jalen Williams from the Oklahoma City Thunder, who The Ringer has ranked at 35 and ESPN has ranked at 44. Those same outlets have Vassell at 71 and unranked, respectively (the only other player ESPN has in their top 100 besides Victor Wembanyama is Chris Paul at 99).
Obviously, players who contribute to a contending team are going to have their stock boosted as compared to one playing for a bottom-dweller. But when that’s all people want to use to differentiate players, that’s when we end up having Chet Holmgren is better than Wemby conversations. Team situation, expectation, and goals all play their part in these discussions, so should we hold it against Vassell that the Spurs were a -10 with Wemby off the court? That’s why we need to dive into the numbers a bit more.
Something to note before we continue: We’ll be using the aforementioned Jalen Williams in comparison to Vassell. This isn’t to say he’s not properly ranked because J-Dub is an awesome, awesome player and deserves his flowers. This is merely pointing out how Vassell is closer to him than he is to CJ McCollum (one of the 25 players in the above graphic and who is ranked 76 by The Ringer and 84 by ESPN).
Taking a look at their basic stats for the full season, since we only used Vassell’s numbers from after Keldon went to the bench 28 games into the season, we see that J-Dub holds the advantage across the board.
He squeaks by in the counting stats, but really holds the edge in terms of advanced stats and shooting efficiency. Not shown here is that J-Dub led 19.1 to 15.7 in PER, 62.1 to 57.8 in true shooting percentage, and 2.3 to 0 in box plus/minus. Again, all this shows that J-Dub is awesome and is highly ranked for a reason.
This is why it’s important to look at Vassell coming into the year as the player he was after Keldon went to the bench. It’s also important to look at whom these two shared the court with. The most used 5-man lineup with J-Dub in it had him with Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Chet, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for almost 800 minutes across 63 games (12.7 minutes per game). Those five were a +10 per 100 possessions in that time. Of the 10 most used lineups with J-Dub, he shared the court with either Chet or Shai in all 10 – all three were in half of these lineups. When you look at the most used 5-man lineups Vassell was a part of, you see a stark contrast.
The most used lineup for Vassell was what ended up being the starters: Vassell with Julian Champagnie, Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan, and Wemby. Those five played a whopping 391 minutes together across 37 games (10.9 minutes per game). In those minutes, the Spurs actually had a positive net rating of +4.1 per 100 possessions. The next most used lineup with Vassell swapped Champagnie for Keldon, and in their 141 minutes over 39 games, the Spurs were a +20.5 per 100 possessions. Experimentation, minutes restrictions, and overall lack of depth are reasons for the Spurs poor record and Vassell’s advanced numbers not looking better.
With the overall lack of talent and shooting on the roster (the Thunder shot 38.9% on 34.2 three-point attempts per game to the Spurs’ 34.7% on 36.4 attempts), Vassell had his work cut out for him night after night. Using bball-index.com, we can create a leaderboard to look into who had the best shot quality in different instances. In the below table, we have the following statistics for the 305 players with at least 751 minutes played last season: Overall Shot Quality, 3PT Shot Quality, One on One Shot Quality, Rim Shot Quality, Self-Created Shot Quality, Half Court Shot Quality, PnR Ball Handler Shot Quality, Spot Up Shot Quality, Off-Ball Shot Quality, and Isolation Shot Quality.
Here are Vassell’s rankings for each:
Overall Shot Quality: 282 (tied with Luka Dončić)
3PT Shot Quality: 270 (tied with Tyrese Maxey)
One on One Shot Quality: 225 (tied with Jae Crowder)
Rim Shot Quality: 184 (tied with Chris Paul)
Self-Created Shot Quality: 287 (tied with Zion Williamson and Jeff Green)
Half Court Shot Quality: 284 (tied with Brandon Miller)
PnR Ball Handler Shot Quality: 125 (tied with 46 others)
Spot Up Shot Quality: 246 (tied with 21 others)
Off-Ball Shot Quality: 277
Isolation Shot Quality: 233 (tied with 10 others)
This isn’t necessarily indicative of Vassell’s ability, or inability, to create a good look for himself given these numbers don’t give us in-game context. Knowing who was guarding him, who was on the court, and what the defense looked like behind his defender all impact Vassell’s shot quality. What these numbers do tell us, however, is that we should be impressed by the 19.5 ppg Vassell averaged on his shooting splits given his shot quality being this poor.
In case you’re curious about where J-Dub ranks in those same shot quality categories, here you go:
Overall Shot Quality: 215
3PT Shot Quality: 121
One on One Shot Quality: 130
Rim Shot Quality: 147
Self-Created Shot Quality: 217
Half Court Shot Quality: 226
PnR Ball Handler Shot Quality: 172
Spot Up Shot Quality: 160
Off-Ball Shot Quality: 37
Isolation Shot Quality: 120
Where J-Dub really sets himself apart from others is on the defensive side. While Vassell isn’t a slouch on that end, he wasn’t tasked with matchups as difficult as J-Dub. Not only that, but with his size, strength, and athleticism, J-Dub guards a larger variety of positions. Maybe we’ll see Vassell shine more defensively with the additions the Spurs made this offseason and a slightly lighter load on offense. For now, there’s not really much of a conversation to be had between these two on defense.
That brings us back to offense and what we might see from Vassell this season. Having more guys who can handle the ball and get the team into sets will take the ball out of his hands a bit. That’s not a bad thing. He’ll be able to come off screens more often, be used as a spot-up shooter, and slash his way into the paint against a rotating defense. And when he is tasked with creating offense, opponents shouldn’t feel as comfortable sagging off his teammates. Just think about all the attention that Wemby is going to get every time down the court – year two Wemby’s presence alone will open up more space for Vassell to work.
When you add everything together, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vassell average around 23+ per game. Before you freak out thinking that’s a wild take, there were five teams who had two players average at least 23 ppg (seven if you want to include Joel Embiid and Julius Randle, who played less than 50 games each). Remember that Vassell averaged 20 points over his last 46 games? Funny enough, Wemby, too, played 46 games from the same starting point through the end of the season. In those games, he was putting up 23 ppg. There’s plenty of room for both Vassell and Wemby to improve their scoring output due to increased shooting efficiency from getting easier buckets than last season. Not to mention the possibility of them getting to the free throw line more.
With the Spurs likely to win a decent chunk of games more than last year and Vassell playing a big part of that happening, there will be a brighter spotlight shining on him. And by the end of the year, NBA fans and media across the country will be talking about just how good he is. Perhaps we even see him rocket up some of these ranking lists.
By Casey Coggins, via Pounding The Rock