By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-10-19 00:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
随着 2024-25 NBA 赛季的到来，是时候对各支球队进行分级了。
经过漫长的四个月，NBA 回来了！
为了迎接即将到来的戏剧性事件和闹剧，是时候对各支球队进行分级了。和往常一样，这些都是 有保证的 、万无一失的预测——只要我们不在年底重新审视它们。
闲话少说，让我们从西部开始。
注意：每个梯队内的球队按字母顺序排列，不分先后。
夺冠热门
俄克拉荷马雷霆队
以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因会在多大程度上改变雷霆队的进攻风格？
雷霆队上赛季最大的问题是缺乏篮板球，尤其是在进攻端。哈尔滕施泰因的加入解决了这个问题，但他缺乏投篮能力，这将迫使雷霆队改变他们的进攻风格，因为他们不能再打五外阵容。令人惊讶的是，哈尔滕施泰因在 2021-2023 年期间的三分球命中率为 22 投 67 中（32.8%），因此也许马克·戴格诺特会让他放手一搏。无论如何，哈尔滕施泰因的篮板和传球能力仍将为雷霆队的进攻带来新的维度，但他们的新阵容是否能弥补他们在第二轮输给达拉斯独行侠队时陷入困境的进攻，还有待观察。
有力竞争者
达拉斯独行侠队
德雷克·莱弗利三世能提供任何空间吗？
在经历了一个轰动的新秀赛季后，投篮 现在似乎是莱弗利的下一个主要关注点。对于一个没有投篮能力的大个子来说，在一个休赛期就成为三分线外的威胁是前所未有的，但也许我们今年可以 看到他尝试更多的中距离投篮。这种情况会让东契奇和莱弗利的挡拆更加危险，而独行侠队也将更有可能在本赛季和未来几年都保持竞争力。
丹佛掘金队
年轻球员能做出多少贡献？
克里斯蒂安·布劳恩上赛季的三分球命中率高达 38.4%，但他每场比赛只出手两次——还不到肯塔维奥斯·考德威尔-波普出手次数的一半。如果他在首发阵容中表现挣扎，朱利安·斯特劳瑟、亨特·泰森和佩顿·沃森等球员可能会获得更多机会，但他们都不是三分线外的致命射手。对于一支上赛季三分球出手次数最少的球队来说，如果掘金队希望再次在季后赛中走得更远，他们至少需要一名年轻球员取得突破。
明尼苏达森林狼队
杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯能在进攻端取得飞跃吗？
森林狼队的进攻在最佳状态下看起来也很笨拙，在卡尔-安东尼·唐斯被交易后，他们的进攻今年可能会更加陷入困境。多纳塔斯·莫泰尤纳斯将在替补席上提供强大的火力，但如果森林狼队希望真正有机会争夺总冠军，杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯需要成为取得飞跃的那个人。他在投篮和/或运球方面的任何进步都将为安东尼·爱德华兹创造更多操作空间，否则，由于鲁迪·戈贝尔和纳兹·里德的存在，对手将继续堵塞油漆区。
季后赛球队
孟菲斯灰熊队
扎克·埃迪能带来多大的影响？
由于史蒂文·亚当斯的离开，孟菲斯现在将依靠扎克·埃迪来抢夺进攻篮板球并在防守端保护篮筐。对于一名拥有复古球风的菜鸟大个子来说，这是一个很高的要求，尽管埃迪在季前赛中的出色表现不容忽视。如果他能超出预期，灰熊队很有机会重新获得常规赛强队的称号，并成为雷霆队在西部最大的威胁——假设他们的伤病报告看起来不像一部电影的片尾字幕。
新奥尔良鹈鹕队
到底谁打中锋？
尽管拥有一份阵容深度很强的名单和布兰登·英格拉姆这样的优质交易筹码，但鹈鹕队不知何故仍然没能找到一名首发中锋。锡安·威廉姆森足够强壮，可以胜任这个位置，但他的膝盖会在与巨人——以及他自己的体重——的不断碰撞中崩溃。对他来说幸运的是，传闻中的首发 5 号位 是赫伯·琼斯，尽管考虑到琼斯瘦弱的体型，球队可能会选择中锋轮换的策略。有些事情最终会发生变化，所以在这种无意的“小球”实验持续的时候好好享受吧。
菲尼克斯太阳队
迈克·布登霍尔泽能带领他们进入前四吗？
每年，都会有一支令人惊讶的球队取代一支预期的竞争者，成为头号种子，而太阳队似乎是本赛季最有可能做到这一点的球队。在上赛季的动荡中，太阳队仍然赢得了 49 场比赛，而且在迈克·布登霍尔泽的带领下，他们的进攻看起来已经好多了。考虑到布登霍尔泽执教常规赛强队的历史，太阳队很有可能在西部获得头号种子，从而在首轮比赛中对阵实力较弱的对手。
有望进入附加赛的球队
金州勇士队
轮换阵容是什么样的？
尽管除了永远迷人的斯蒂芬·库里之外，这支球队缺乏顶级天才，但他们的阵容 深度很深。但这并不总是一件好事，因为过多的选择可能会导致更衣室的不满和教练组的过度思考。除了库里和德雷蒙德·格林之外，其他三个首发位置都悬而未决。安德鲁·威金斯和乔纳森·库明加是否都能获得首发，尽管他们的组合很奇怪？谁来打中锋？如果史蒂夫·科尔花了太长时间才弄清楚这一点，金州勇士队最多也只能进入附加赛。
休斯顿火箭队
杰伦·格林会展现出什么样的状态？
杰伦·格林在上赛季的大部分时间里都显得迷茫，但在最后一个月里，他爆发了，场均得到 24.5 分、5.9 个篮板和 4 次助攻，投篮命中率为 45/37/81。指望他整个赛季都保持这样的数据是不合理的，但如果他在提高组织能力的同时继续保持高效的得分，那会怎样呢？火箭队将会处于一个令人羡慕的位置，他们拥有 太多 的优秀年轻球员：格林、阿尔佩伦·申京、阿门·汤普森和泰特·华盛顿都可能是球队的基石，但他们不可能把他们都留下。
洛杉矶湖人队
JJ 是一位多么优秀的教练？
达尔文·哈姆是湖人队上赛季最大的替罪羊，而 JJ·雷迪克现在有机会证明这种批评是否有道理。没有哪位一年级主教练像雷迪克那样充分展现了自己的执教理念，他进步的、以数据分析为导向的执教方式与哈姆更加刻板的风格形成了鲜明对比。无论教练水平如何，这支湖人队的实力都不足以让他们走得很远，但随之而来的戏剧性事件将提供充足的娱乐性。
萨克拉门托国王队
德玛尔·德罗赞将如何融入？
从纸面上看，用德玛尔·德罗赞取代哈里森·巴恩斯是一个巨大的升级，但我不确定实际情况会如何发展。德罗赞需要球权才能发挥作用，多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯和达龙·福克斯也是如此。这三个人都不是特别出色的射手或防守者，如果没有无球价值，他们在球场上的表现就不会像人们预期的那样好。尽管如此，天赋就是天赋，也许他们的个人火力可以解决任何不协调的问题。
“文班很高”和“Intuit 球馆有厕所”梯队
洛杉矶快船队
哈登能带领球队前进吗？
快船队可能是目前 NBA 中最悲伤的球队，在科怀·伦纳德无限期缺阵的情况下，他们的成功完全取决于詹姆斯·哈登。然而，哈登能否让时光倒流对联盟的未来有着重大影响，因为雷霆队拥有快船队 2025 年不受保护的首轮选秀权。你能想象，如果快船队在本赛季意外垫底，让雷霆队在选秀大会上获得一个潜在的前五顺位吗？这似乎是不可想象的，但库珀·弗拉格因为保罗·乔治的交易而加盟雷霆队，这太符合洛杉矶的风格了，以至于它应该成为 《绝命毒师》 的片尾彩蛋。
但是，嘿，如果发生这种情况，球迷们可以在 Intuit 球馆 1400 多个厕所 中的一个尽情哭泣。
圣安东尼奥马刺队
文班能达到怎样的高度？
卡里姆。奥尼尔。邓肯。勒布朗。文班亚马。
可以说，这份名单上的前四位球员都是 NBA 历史上最伟大的五位新秀，他们都位列历史前十。只有时间才能证明维克多·文班亚马能否达到这样的高度，但如果说我们从他的新秀赛季中学到了什么，那就是永远不要限制他的潜力。考虑到前几代天才球员的发展轨迹，他完全有可能在新秀赛季开始时就进入联盟前十，并在赛季结束时成为联盟前五。
文班的天花板不是天空，甚至不是月球：而是他来自的任何外星球，这可能还是一种轻描淡写。
为弗拉格摆烂
波特兰开拓者队
斯库特能提高自己的选秀行情多少？
作为过去十年中最受追捧的后卫新秀之一，斯库特·亨德森的新秀赛季令人失望。这位 20 岁的球员在场上经常显得迷茫，但重要的是要记住，他在大部分时间里都是作为一名 19 岁的球员 在打球。历史上，控球后卫一直是年轻球员最难胜任的位置，这就是为什么如果有人低价抛售斯库特的股票，我会买入的原因。他的运动能力、职业道德和比赛感觉仍然非常出色，尽管 他在媒体日上的新闻发布会有点令人担忧……
犹他爵士队
基翁泰·乔治是他们未来的控球后卫吗？
除了劳里·马尔卡宁之外，基翁泰·乔治可能是爵士队唯一一位值得长期培养的球员。这位年轻的后卫在新秀赛季伊始就表现出色，展现了他的得分和组织能力，但在下半赛季的大部分时间里都表现挣扎。尽管如此，乔治还是展现出了足够的闪光点，让人们相信他可以成为马尔卡宁的得力助手，如果他能取得足够的进步，爵士队有可能比预期更早地把赌注押在他身上，以便在马尔卡宁的巅峰时期保持竞争力。
请在未来几天查看东部联盟的前瞻。
点击查看原文：2024-25 NBA season preview: Western Conference tiers and questions
2024-25 NBA season preview: Western Conference tiers and questions
With the 2024-25 NBA season upon us, it’s time to place teams into tiers.
After long four months, the NBA is back!
In order to prepare for the inevitable drama and shenanigans that will ensure, it’s time to place teams into tiers. As usual, these are guaranteed, fool-proof predictions - as long as we don’t revisit them at year end.
Without further ado, let’s start out west.
Note: teams within each tier are placed in alphabetical order and not ranked.
The favorite
Oklahoma City Thunder
How much will Isaiah Hartenstein change OKC’s offensive identity?
OKC’s biggest issue last year was their lack of rebounding, especially on the offensive end. The addition of Hartenstein solves that problem, but his lack of shooting will now force the Thunder to change their offensive identity since they can no longer play five-out. Surprisingly, iHart actually shot 22/67 (32.8%) from deep between 2021-2023, so perhaps Mark Daigneault will empower him to bomb away. Regardless, Hartenstein’s rebounding and passing will still bring a new dimension to OKC’s offense, but it remains to be seen if their new versatility can make up for an attack that was bogged down during their second round loss to Dallas.
Legitimate contenders
Dallas Mavericks
Can Derrick Lively III provide any spacing?
Following a sensational rookie campaign, shooting now seems to be Lively’s next main focus. It’s unprecedented for a non-shooting big to become a threat from deep over the course of just one offseason, but perhaps we could see him attempt more mid-rangers this year. Such a scenario can make the Luka-Lively pick and roll even more dangerous, and the Mavs would be in a better position to content both this season and for years to come.
Denver Nuggets
How much can the young guns contribute?
Christian Braun made a surprising 38.4% of his threes last year, but on just two attempts a game - less than half compared to KCP’s volume. If he struggles in a starting role, players such as Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, and Peyton Watson could get more looks, but none of them are deadeye shooters from deep. For a team that was last in 3-point attempts last year, the Nuggets will need at least one of their young guns to make a leap if they hope to make another deep playoff run.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Can Jaden McDaniels take an offensive leap?
With an offense that looks clunky at the best of times, Minnesota’s attack could get even more bogged down this year following the KAT trade. Donte DiVincenzo will provide a nice boost off the bench, but Jaden McDaniels needs to be the one who takes a leap if the Wolves hope to have a real title shot. Any improvement to his shooting and/or off the dribble game will open up more room for Ant to operate, or else opposing teams will continue to clog the lane due to the presence of Gobert and Randle.
Playoff-bound
Memphis Grizzlies
How big of an impact can Zach Edey make?
Due to the departure of Steven Adams, Memphis will now lean on Zach Edey to grab offensive rebounds and protect the rim on defense. That’s a lot to ask a rookie big who possesses a throwback game, though it’s hard to ignore Edey’s impressive preseason. If he manages to exceed expectations, the Grizzlies have a good chance of regaining their status as a regular season machine and emerge as OKC’s biggest threat in the conference - assuming their medical report doesn’t look like the end credits of a movie again.
New Orleans Pelicans
Who the heck plays center?
The Pelicans somehow still haven’t been able to acquire a starting center even with a deep roster and a prime trade chip in Brandon Ingram. Zion is strong enough to do it, but his knees will collapse under the constant banging against behemoths - and his own weight. Luckily for him, Herb Jones is the rumored starting 5, although the team will likely opt for a center by committee approach given Jones’ slim frame. Something will give eventually, so enjoy this unintentional small ball experiment while it lasts.
Phoenix Suns
Can Mike Budenholzer propel them to a top four seed?
Every year, a surprise team supplants an expected contender as a top seed, and the Suns seem best positioned to do that this season. Phoenix managed to win 49 games last year amid turmoil, and their offense already looks much better under Mike Budenholzer. Given Bud’s history of coaching regular season machines, it’s very possible for Phoenix to grab a top seed in the West and thus play a weaker opponent in round one.
Frisky play-in teams
Golden State Warriors
What does the rotation look like?
Despite the lack of top talent outside of the forever-beautiful Wardell Curry, this team is deep. That’s not always a good thing, though, since the abundance of options could lead to an unhappy locker room and overthinking from the coaching staff. Outside of Steph and Draymond, the other three starting spots are all up for grabs. Does Wiggins and Kuminga both get the nod despite their odd fit? And who gets the call at center? If Steve Kerr takes too long to figure this out, Golden State will be a play-in team at best.
Houston Rockets
What version of Jalen Green shows up?
Jalen Green looked lost for most of last season before exploding to average 24.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4 assists on 45/37/81 shooting in the last month. Expecting him to put up those numbers for an entire season is unreasonable, but what if he continues to score efficiently while improving his playmaking? The Rockets will then be put in an enviable position where they have too many good young players: Green, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Reed Sheppard could all be building blocks, but they can’t afford to keep them all.
Los Angeles Lakers
How good of a coach is JJ?
Darvin Ham was the biggest scapegoat in LA last year, and JJ Reddick is now in position to prove if that criticism was warranted. No first year head coach has revealed their philosophy as much as Reddick, and his progressive, analytically driven approach is a stark contrast to Ham’s more rigid style. This Laker team isn’t talented enough to make a deep run regardless of how good the coaching is, but the inevitable drama that will ensue will provide plenty of entertainment.
Sacramento Kings
How will DeMar DeRozan fit?
On paper, replacing Harrison Barnes with DeMar DeRozan is an enormous upgrade, but I’m not sure how it will actually play out. DeRozan needs the ball to be effective, which applies to both Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox too. None of the three are particularly good shooters or defenders, and without that off-ball value, the on-court product won’t work as well as one might expect. Still, talent is talent, and perhaps their individual firepower will solve any clunky fit issues.
The “Wemby is tall” and “Intuit Dome has toilets” tier
Los Angeles Clippers
Can Harden keep the ship afloat?
Perhaps the saddest current NBA team, the Clippers’ success all hinges on James Harden now that Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely. Whether or not Harden can turn back the clock has massive implications for the future of the league, though, as the Thunder has LA’s unprotected 2025 first round pick. Can you imagine if the Clippers unintentionally finish the season in the basement, giving OKC a potential top five pick in a loaded draft? It seems inconceivable, yet Cooper Flagg joining the Thunder because of the Paul George trade is so quintessential LA that it should be an end credits scene in Clipped.
But hey, if that happens, fans can cry privately in one of over 1400 toilets in the Intuit Dome.
San Antonio Spurs
How high can Wemby ascend?
Kareem. Shaq. Duncan. LeBron. Wembanyama.
Arguably the five greatest prospects in NBA history, the first four names on that list are all amongst the 10 greatest players ever. Only time will tell if Victor Wembanyama can reach those heights, but if there’s one thing we learned from his rookie season, it’s to never put a limit on his potential. Given the trajectory of previous generational talents, it’s entirely possible that he will start the season as a top 10 player, and end as one of the five best.
Wemby’s ceiling isn’t the sky, or even the moon: it’s whatever alien planet he’s from, and that might be an understatement too.
Sag for Flagg
Portland Trail Blazers
How much can Scoot improve his stock?
One of the most hyped point guard prospects of the last decade, Scoot Henderson had an extremely disappointing rookie campaign. The 20 year old often seemed lost on the court, but it’s important to remember that he played most of the season as a 19 year old. Point guard has historically been the hardest position to figure out for young players, which is why I’m buying Scoot stock if anyone’s selling them at a low price. His combination of athleticism, work ethic, and feel for the game remain sky high, although his media day presser was a tad concerning…
Utah Jazz
Is Keyonte George their point guard of the future?
Outside of Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George might be the only long-term keeper for Utah. The young guard started his rookie season red hot and showcased his scoring and playmaking potential, before struggling for much of the second half. Still, George showed enough flashes to think that he could be a running mate for Markkanen, and if he makes enough of a jump, it’s possible that the Jazz could push their chips in earlier than expected to be competitive during Markkanen’s prime.
Check in the next few days for the Eastern Conference preview.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock