By NBA Insiders, 2024-10-16 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
ESPN 的 NBA 百大球员倒计时已接近尾声，前十名名单将于周四公布。
本赛季的 NBA 实力排行榜（已公布第 100-11 名）出现了很多惊喜，完整名单将在 2024-25 赛季于周二开赛前为球迷们提供很多讨论话题。在我们看到谁进入前十名之前，我们的专家小组正在对今年的排名进行分析。维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 度过了一个非凡的新秀赛季，但这位身高 7 英尺 4 英寸的明星大个子是否已经达到了真正的精英级别？哪些球员可能难以达到他们的排名？那些被忽视的球员呢？勒布朗·詹姆斯、斯蒂芬·库里和凯文·杜兰特这三位名人堂球员又如何呢？
在周四公布前十名名单之前，我们将重点关注 NBA 百强榜迄今为止最大的惊喜、冷门和热门问题。
维克托·文班亚马排名第 11 位是 _____。
迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright): 对于一位 20 岁的球员来说，这个排名恰如其分，他刚刚度过了一个历史性的新秀赛季，与马刺队名人堂大个子大卫·罗宾逊和蒂姆·邓肯的第一个赛季相比毫不逊色。我们可以根据文班亚马上赛季令人瞠目结舌的数据进行预测，因为他现在将与未来的名人堂控球后卫克里斯·保罗搭档。但我们不知道文班在第二年的表现会如何。但他非凡的潜力正是全世界每晚都会关注他的原因。
安德烈·斯内林斯 (André Snellings): 保守了。文班亚马本赛季可能是联盟中排名第 11 位的球员，这对他是合理的。但我认为这是他健康状态下的最低排名。就他的上限而言，他可能已经是联盟中最好的攻防兼备球员了。文班在下半赛季的数据略有提升，这将使他场均得到 26 分、12 个篮板和 6 次助攻，以及 4.5 次盖帽和 2 次抢断。仅凭这样的进攻数据，一名球员就很有可能入选全明星阵容，但这也能让文班亚马成为年度最佳防守球员的竞争者。他可以合理地达到这些数据，这将使他在第 11 位的排名被低估。
马特·威廉姆斯 (Matt Williams): 鉴于他不可思议的新秀年，这个排名是合理的。文班亚马在一个赛季中就取得了 40 分 20 个篮板、5x5 和 10 次盖帽的成绩——自 1973-74 赛季盖帽和抢断成为正式统计数据以来，只有安东尼·戴维斯和哈基姆·奥拉朱旺在职业生涯中做到过这一点。根据 SIS 追踪数据，即使是文班亚马的在场也造成了麻烦，因为他领跑联盟的篮下干扰数据。他也成为联盟历史上第一个单赛季获得 250 次盖帽和 100 个三分球的球员。他的三分球将是他比赛中一个值得关注的有趣部分，因为根据 Second Spectrum 的数据，上赛季他接球就投的三分球命中率为 29%，而运球后的三分球命中率高达 38%。
巴克斯特·霍尔姆斯 (Baxter Holmes): 随着赛季即将开始，这个排名看起来很公平合理，但如果他能延续全明星赛后的火热状态，那么这个排名很容易就会显得过低。这还没有考虑到保罗将会让他打得更轻松。他的新秀赛季有很多惊人的数据——他有两场比赛得到 30 分、15 个篮板、5 次助攻和 5 次盖帽——但随着赛季的进行，他显然开始意识到，几乎没有人能阻止他。在奥运会上，他宣称随着自己的进步，他很担心自己的对手，我认为随着他成为一名攻防统治力的球员，他将会取得巨大的进步。
豪尔赫·塞达诺 (Jorge Sedano): 太低了。我认为文班亚马场均可以得到 24 分、12 个篮板、4 次助攻、近 4 次盖帽和 1 次抢断。如果他能达到这些数据，那么他的数据将与奥拉朱旺在他的第二个赛季持平或更好。奥拉朱旺在职业生涯的这个阶段也比文班亚马大了近两岁，但在那一年获得了 MVP 评选的第四名。文班亚马将拥有一个 NBA 休赛期的训练时间，在一个伟大的球队中，他的比赛自然会成长，还有一些老将会在保罗和哈里森·巴恩斯的带领下帮助他完成他的旅程。文班亚马是我本赛季最佳防守球员的预测人选，我相信他将在 MVP 评选中排名前五。
说出一个应该排名前 50 的球员。
斯内林斯： 德雷蒙德·格林，他对胜利的影响力仍然是这项运动中最大的球员之一。尽管近年来事件和停赛不断，但 34 岁的格林仍然是金州勇士队的精英防守者和主要组织者。上赛季，当格林在场上时，勇士队每百回合比对手多得 5.6 分，这是该队所有首发球员中最高的平均值。在前一个赛季，这个数据甚至更高（每百回合 7.3 分）。格林仍然是 NBA 中影响力最大的球员之一，并且肯定是前 50 名球员之一。
塞达诺： 格林。斯内林斯教授从分析的角度阐述了这一点，而我将简单地说：他能影响比赛的胜负。勇士队在上赛季格林缺场的比赛中取得了 13 胜 14 负的战绩，而在格林出场的比赛中取得了 33 胜 22 负的战绩。如果将这一数据推演到整个赛季，勇士队将成为西部赛区的六号种子，从而避免参加附加赛。在他缺席的比赛中，对手每场比赛比对阵勇士队时多得 6 分，并且投篮命中率高出 3%。这还没有考虑到他的控球、组织和其他无形资产。这位四届总冠军仍然是这项运动中最具影响力的球员之一。
德雷蒙德·格林需要一如既往地成为金州勇士队的关键球员。凯文·贾伊拉伊/《今日美国》体育 霍尔姆斯： 约什·哈特。在季后赛中最具活力和最引人注目的一件事是，这位身高 6 英尺 4 英寸的后卫如何能够成为纽约尼克斯队的篮板球怪兽。他会冲进内线，并以某种方式在人群中抢到篮板球——尤其是在进攻端，这给了尼克斯队额外的球权。他在季后赛中场均得到 14.5 分和 11.5 个篮板球，帮助了这支饱受伤病困扰的球队。我很想知道新加盟的卡尔-安东尼·唐斯将如何帮助尼克斯队的篮板球，尤其是考虑到中锋以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因和前锋朱利叶斯·兰德尔在休赛期的离开，以及米切尔·罗宾逊因脚踝手术要到明年 1 月才能复出。但可以肯定的是，哈特将再次成为尼克斯队自 2000 年以来首次打进东部决赛的关键人物。
莱特： 赫伯·琼斯。现在我们就可以理解为什么新奥尔良鹈鹕队觉得有必要印制球衣来宣传他们这位年轻的防守悍将了。琼斯上赛季与巴姆·阿德巴约、安东尼·戴维斯、维克托·文班亚马和鲁迪·戈贝尔等更知名的球员一起入选了 NBA 最佳防守阵容一阵。在这四名球员中，只有戈贝尔排在第 34 位，不在前 20 名之列。拉梅洛·鲍尔排在第 50 位，尽管他在过去两个赛季只打了 58 场比赛。所以，请尊重琼斯。
威廉姆斯： 弗朗茨·瓦格纳在与奥兰多魔术队续签了一份顶薪新秀合同，他在上个赛季的得分、篮板、助攻和抢断都创下了职业生涯新高。瓦格纳也是魔术队取得 47 场胜利的关键，这是他们自 2010-11 赛季以来的单赛季最高胜场数。然而，瓦格纳能否找回他的跳投将是未来发展的关键。在 2023-24 赛季，他在所有符合资格的球员中三分球命中率排名垫底。根据 Second Spectrum 的追踪数据，瓦格纳在常规赛和季后赛中的跳投命中率为 29%，是过去 10 年中所有至少出手 400 次的球员中最低的。
斯蒂芬·库里、勒布朗·詹姆斯和凯文·杜兰特继续在 NBA 比赛中保持着精英水准。杰米·斯奎尔斯/盖蒂图片社## 詹姆斯、库里和杜兰特都进入了前十名。他们还配得上吗？
塞达诺： 抛开他们是这一代最好的球员这一事实不谈，看看他们上赛季的数据吧。詹姆斯在这个阶段所做的一切都是前所未有的。事实上，你仍然可以指望他高效地得到 25 分、8 个篮板和 8 次助攻，这真是太不可思议了。库里在上赛季的三分球命中数上排名联盟第一，而他的阵容却在不断变化。至于杜兰特，他的球队饱受伤病困扰，他在太阳队的防守压力远远大于他最近所承受的压力。他欣然接受了挑战，并取得了成功。
威廉姆斯： 当然，这三名球员仍然是 NBA 中稳定的代名词。上赛季只有两名球员在投篮命中率达到 50% 和三分球命中率达到 40% 的情况下场均得分达到 25 分，他们分别是詹姆斯和杜兰特。库里投进了 357 个三分球，在联盟历史上排名第三。在 2023-24 赛季之前，从未出现过两名 35 岁或以上的球员在同一个赛季场均得分达到 25 分的情况。詹姆斯、杜兰特和库里在上个赛季都做到了这一点。
莱特： 绝对配得上。这三人都入选了全明星阵容，这是有充分理由的，因为他们每个人都在各自的球队中扮演着至关重要的角色。詹姆斯即将迎来他的第 22 个赛季，他已经打了联盟历史上第二多的常规赛时间（56,597 分钟）。他的比赛真的有退步吗？别忘了，上个赛季，39 岁的他打了 71 场比赛。库里在 2023-24 赛季中 28 次得分超过 30 分，并在 36 岁时获得了关键球员奖。与此同时，杜兰特上赛季摆脱了伤病困扰，打了 75 场比赛，场均得到 27.1 分。这些人看起来都离退役还远着呢。
斯内林斯： 这三个人都有理由进入前十名，而且他们都是应该得到鲜花的老将。出于这些原因，我对他们的排名没有意见。但是，如果我们抛开他们的名气和对这项运动的贡献，我认为其他人可能比杜兰特更有资格进入前十。根据上赛季的表现，尼克斯队后卫杰伦·布伦森应该进入前十名。杜兰特的队友德文·布克也没有进入前十名，他可以说是菲尼克斯太阳队中最好的球员。杜兰特仍然是这项运动中最高效的得分手之一，但也有充分的理由认为，至少还有其他 10 名球员目前的表现比他更好。
霍尔姆斯： 如果我们不考虑他们的年龄，仅仅根据他们上赛季的数据来判断，那么这真的没什么好争论的。是的，他们的前十名排名是实至名归的。上赛季，詹姆斯仍然是联盟中最具统治力的全能球员之一，场均得到 25.7 分、8.3 次助攻和 7.3 个篮板。库里场均得到 26.4 分——如果有人怀疑他的伟大，只要再看一遍他在巴黎奥运会上的表现就知道了。杜兰特在金州勇士队跟腱断裂后打了最多的常规赛（75 场），并且在此过程中场均得到 27.1 分。无论年龄大小，他们都是真正具有统治力的球员，但他们的年龄让他们的统治力更加令人惊叹。他们正在重新定义 NBA 球员在这个阶段的职业生涯中所能取得的成就。
哪位球员本赛季的表现会超出他的排名？
霍尔姆斯： 锡安·威廉姆森。如果他能在鹈鹕队保持健康，并且他能像他在某些时刻表现出来的那样持续稳定地发挥统治力，那么他最有可能远远超出他的排名。“不可阻挡”这个词经常被滥用，但当他处于最佳状态时，似乎没有人能阻止一个拥有他这样身材、力量和灵活性的球员在篮筐附近或半场进攻的其他地方为所欲为。在油漆区，他有时看起来像沙克——而他还只有 24 岁。威廉姆森上赛季打了 70 场常规赛，创下了职业生涯新高，但他似乎已经准备好更上一层楼，成为那个从杜克大学出来时就被大肆宣传的球员了。
锡安·威廉姆森上赛季出战了职业生涯最高的 70 场比赛，但赛季末的伤病让他缺席了季后赛。斯蒂芬·卢/《今日美国》体育 斯内林斯： 拉梅洛·鲍尔。从本质上讲，这只是押注他本赛季在夏洛特黄蜂队能保持相对健康。鲍尔在 2020-21 赛季获得了最佳新秀奖，然后在第二个赛季入选了全明星阵容。但在那之后的两个赛季里，伤病让他在 164 场比赛中只打了 56 场。鲍尔的比赛一直在进步——他现在是一名比新秀赛季更好、更高效的得分手，拥有更好的组织视野和执行力。如果他本赛季能够打大部分的比赛，那么鲍尔应该能轻松进入前 25 名。
莱特： 弗雷德·范弗利特。他的排名第 79 位，这对于一个被赋予重任的球员来说确实太低了，他要在教练伊梅·乌多卡的带领下帮助休斯顿火箭队建立一种全新的文化，同时还要在年轻后卫杰伦·格林和贾巴里·史密斯的成长过程中发挥重要作用。在范弗利特加盟火箭队的第一个赛季，火箭队取得了 41 胜 41 负的战绩，比上赛季多赢了 19 场，这是 NBA 所有球队中进步最大的。然而，他在场均助攻数（8.1 次）创下职业生涯新高的同时，排名却下降了 23 位？像往常一样，范弗利特将在 2024-25 赛季再次押注自己，并大获全胜。
塞达诺： 基根·穆雷排名第 94 位？让我们回顾一下：这位萨克拉门托国王队前锋在 2022-23 赛季度过了一个强劲的新秀赛季，三分球命中率达到 41%，并在最佳新秀评选中排名前五。上赛季，他承担起了防守对方最佳球员的任务——他的进攻效率略有下降。在第三年，他准备成为 NBA 中最好的攻防兼备球员之一。我在季前赛对阵金州勇士队的比赛中看到他在攻防两端的表现是如此轻松自如，这让我感到震惊。在防守端，他送出了 5 次抢断，他的个人外线防守令人印象深刻。国王队正在培养一位球星。
威廉姆斯： 赫伯·琼斯。仅凭他的防守就值得比第 97 位更高的排名。他是最好的单防球员之一，根据 Second Spectrum 的数据，在上赛季至少防守 125 次一对一的情况下，他在一对一中每回合失分排名前十。这一点至关重要，因为当场上没有传统中锋时，鹈鹕队会更多地进行换防。也不要忽视琼斯的进攻，因为从 1 月 1 日到赛季结束，在所有出手次数达到 100 次的球员中，他的三分球命中率领跑 NBA。
哪位球员的排名过高？
莱特： 詹姆斯·哈登排名第 41 位。诚然，这可能是为时过早的判断（也许是错误的），但在保罗·乔治离开和科怀·伦纳德预期进行负荷管理之后，他再次有机会成为洛杉矶快船队的“体系球员”。我们可能会发现，这位 2018 年的 MVP 不再有能力持续地带领一支球队前进，尤其是在竞争激烈的西部联盟，在过去的五年里，我们看到了五支不同的球队打进了 NBA 总决赛。
威廉姆斯： 我们需要看看米切尔·罗宾逊在本赛季的表现如何，他排在第 82 位。由于他预计要到 1 月才能复出，随着卡尔-安东尼·唐斯现在加盟尼克斯队，他的角色将会发生变化。不过，罗宾逊仍将是尼克斯队的重要替补球员，尤其是在进攻篮板方面，以及在挡拆防守中使用蹲坑防守。
塞达诺： 罗宾逊的排名也让人感到意外，主要是因为他目前仍在从伤病中恢复，无法上场。你知道那句谚语：“最强的能力是出勤率。”
霍尔姆斯： 布兰丁·波杰姆斯基是勇士队在去年选秀大会上以第 19 顺位选中的一名出色的球员，他很快就证明了自己是一名能够在一支经验丰富的球队中发挥作用的新秀。我预计他本赛季的角色会更加重要。但我不知道他是否是 NBA 中排名第 78 位的球员——至少现在还不是。这位身高 6 英尺 4 英寸的后卫上赛季场均得到 9.2 分、5.8 个篮板和 3.7 次助攻——对于一名在很多比赛中替补出场球员来说，这些数据都令人印象深刻。勇士队私下里对他赞不绝口。假以时日，他可能会成为联盟中排名前 75 位的球员之一，但我不知道他现在是否已经达到了这个水平。（我很乐意被打脸。）
斯内林斯： 德雷克·莱弗利二世排名第 56 位。这并不是因为我不认为他能有那么出色，而是因为我不确定他是否是达拉斯独行侠队中目前最有价值的中锋。丹尼尔·加福德没有进入榜单，但他似乎仍将是独行侠队本赛季的首发中锋，而莱弗利将替补出场。虽然莱弗利在总决赛中对阵波士顿凯尔特人时是一个更好的选择，但在前两轮比赛中，加福德是独行侠队的内线支柱。随着莱弗利在独行侠队中角色的增加，他只会变得更好，但他的排名可能仍然有点高。
点击查看原文：NBA Rank 2024-25: Wemby too low? LeBron, Curry, KD too high?
NBA Rank 2024-25: Wemby too low? LeBron, Curry, KD too high?
ESPN’s countdown of the NBA’s best 100 players is nearly complete, with the top-10 list set to be released Thursday.
This season’s edition of NBA Rank – with Nos. 100-11 unveiled – has had plenty of surprises, and the complete list will provide a lot for fans to discuss before the 2024-25 regular season tips off Tuesday. Before we see who makes the top 10, our expert panel is breaking down this year’s ranking so far. Victor Wembanyama had a remarkable rookie season, but has the 7-foot-4 star big man reached truly elite status? Which players might have a tough task living up to their rating? What about those who might have been overlooked? And what about the Hall of Fame trio of LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant?
Ahead of Thursday’s unveiling of the top-10 list, we’re hitting on the biggest surprises, snubs and top questions so far from our NBA Rank 100.
Victor Wembanyama’s No. 11 ranking was _____.
Michael C. Wright: Exactly where it needs to be for a 20-year-old fresh off a historic rookie campaign that compared favorably to the first seasons of Spurs Hall of Fame big men David Robinson and Tim Duncan. We can project all we want based on the eye-popping numbers Wembanyama dropped last season, as he’ll now pair up with future Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul. But we just don’t know exactly how Wembanyama will perform in Year 2. But his remarkable potential is precisely why the whole world will be tuned in to watch him every night.
André Snellings: Conservative. Wembanyama might be the 11th-best player in the league this season, and that is a reasonable spot for him. But I think that’s his healthy floor. For his ceiling, he also could be the best two-way player in the league already as a sophomore. A slight improvement on Wemby’s numbers during the second half of the season would give him averages of 26 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists along with 4.5 blocks and 2 steals per game. A player would likely make All-NBA on that offensive production alone, but that could also put Wembanyama in the running for Defensive Player of the Year. He could reasonably achieve those numbers, which would make him underrated at No. 11.
Matt Williams: Justified after his incredible rookie year. Wembanyama recorded a 40-point, 20-rebound game, a 5x5 game and a 10-block game in one season – something only Anthony Davis and Hakeem Olajuwon accomplished in a career since blocks and steals became official during the 1973-74 season. Even Wembanyama’s presence caused problems as he led the league in deters at the rim, per SIS tracking data. He also became the first player with 250 blocks and 100 3-pointers in a season. His 3-point shooting will be an interesting piece of his game to watch as he shot 29% on catch-and-shoot 3s but an efficient 38% when off the dribble last season, per Second Spectrum.
Baxter Holmes: It’s a number that looks fair and justified as the season is about to begin, but it could easily look too low if he resumes the tear that he showed after the All-Star break. And that’s not taking into account that he’ll have Paul making the game easier for him. There are so many striking stats from his rookie campaign – he had two games with 30 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 blocks – but he clearly started to realize, as the season progressed, that there was little anyone could do to stop him. After his proclamation at the Olympics about worrying for his opponents as he improves, I expect him to take a huge leap forward as he becomes a dominant a two-way player.
Jorge Sedano: Too low. I think Wembanyama could average 24 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, nearly 4 blocks and 1 steal per game. If he hits on those marks, he would have similar or better numbers to Olajuwon in his second season. Olajuwon was also nearly two years older at that stage of his career but finished fourth in MVP voting that year. Wembanyama will have a year of NBA offseason training under his belt with a great organization, natural growth to his game and a few veterans to help him in his journey in Paul and Harrison Barnes. Wembanyama is my preseason favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, and I believe he will finish in the top five in MVP voting.
Name a player who should have been ranked inside the top 50.
Snellings: Draymond Green, whose impact on winning still remains one of the biggest in the sport. Despite the incidents and suspensions that have piled up in recent years, the 34-year-old Green remains an elite defender and a primary playmaker for the Golden State Warriors. Last season, the Warriors outscored their opponents by 5.6 points per 100 possessions when Green was on the court – the highest average of any of the team’s starters. It was even more in the previous season (7.3 points per 100 possessions). Green remains one of the biggest impact players in the NBA and is certainly one of the top 50.
Sedano: Green. Professor Snellings laid out the analytical approach, and I will lay it out very simply: He impacts winning. The Warriors were 13-14 in games Green didn’t play last season but 33-22 in games he did. If you extrapolate that over the season it would’ve made the Warriors the sixth seed in the West, avoiding the play-in. Opponents scored six more points per game and shot 3% better against the Warriors in the games he didn’t play. That doesn’t even account for his ball handling, playmaking and other intangibles. The four-time champion is still one of the more impactful players in the sport.
Draymond Green will need to be as instrumental as ever for the Golden State Warriors. Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY SportsHolmes: Josh Hart. One of the most dynamic and remarkable things to watch in the postseason was how a 6-foot-4 guard managed to be such a rebounding force for the New York Knicks. He’d fly into the lane and somehow come away with rebounds in traffic – especially on the offensive end, giving the Knicks extra possessions. He averaged 14.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in the postseason, aiding a team that was beset by injuries. I’m curious to see how newly acquired Karl-Anthony Towns helps the Knicks’ rebounding efforts, especially given the offseason departures of center Isaiah Hartenstein and forward Julius Randle, along with Mitchell Robinson not returning until January from his ankle procedures. But it’s safe to say Hart will again be a consequential figure in the Knicks’ efforts to reach their first Eastern Conference finals since 2000.
Wright: Herb Jones. It’s understandable now why the New Orleans Pelicans feel the need to print up shirts to get the word out about their young, defensive stopper. Jones earned a spot on the NBA’s All-Defensive first team last season alongside more notable names, such as Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert. Of those four players, only Gobert ranks outside the top 20 at No. 34. LaMelo Ball is at No. 50 pot despite playing in a total of 58 games these last two seasons. So, let’s please put a little respect on Jones’ name here.
Williams: Franz Wagner signed a max rookie extension with the Orlando Magic following a season in which he averaged career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals. Wagner was also crucial in the Magic winning 47 games, their most in a season since the 2010-11 campaign. Wagner finding his jump shot again will be critical moving forward, however. He ranked last in 3-point field goal percentage among qualified players in 2023-24. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Wagner shot 29% on jumpers in the regular season and playoffs, the worst in a season by any player with at least 400 attempts in the past 10 years.
Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant continue to play at an elite NBA level. Jamie Squire/Getty Images## James, Curry and Durant are in the top 10. Do they still belong?
Sedano: Put aside that they have been the best players of this generation and look at the numbers they put up last season. What James is doing is simply unprecedented at this stage of his career. The fact that you can still pencil him in for an efficient 25 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists is incredible. Curry finished first in the league in 3-pointers made last season with a roster that was in flux. In Durant’s case, he had a roster riddled with injuries and had to carry a far larger burden on defense with the Suns than he has had to recently. He took that on willingly and succeeded.
Williams: Definitely, all three players continue to be the model of consistency in the NBA. There were only two players to average 25 points while shooting 50% from the field and 40% on 3-pointers last season, and they were James and Durant. Curry made 357 3-pointers, the third most in a season in league history. Prior to 2023-24, there had never been an instance in which multiple players age 35 or older averaged 25 points in the same season. James, Durant and Curry all did that this past season.
Wright: Absolutely. All three made the All-NBA team and for good reason, given the critical roles each has for their teams. James enters Year 22 having logged the second-most career regular-season minutes (56,597). Is there any real decline in his game? Let’s not forget that last season, at age 39, he played 71 games. Curry dropped 28 30-point performances during a 2023-24 campaign in which he turned 36 while leading the NBA in clutch points on the way to earning Clutch Player of the Year. Durant, meanwhile, shook durability concerns last season to play 75 games, averaging 27.1 points. None of these guys look anywhere close to done.
Snellings: All three have an argument to be top 10, and all three are OGs who deserve their flowers. I’m fine with them there for those reasons. But, if we step outside of name and career contribution to the sport, I think others might have better arguments than Durant. Based on last season, Knicks guard Jalen Brunson deserves to be in the top 10. And Durant’s teammate Devin Booker, who also isn’t in the top 10, is arguably the best player on the Phoenix Suns. Durant remains one of the most efficient volume scorers the game has seen, but strong arguments can be made that at least 10 others are currently doing more than he is.
Holmes: If you took their ages out of it and simply examined their statistics from last season, this wouldn’t really be up for debate. Yes, they deserve their top-10 rankings. James remained one of the most dominant all-around players in the game last season, averaging 25.7 points, 8.3 assists and 7.3 rebounds. Curry averaged 26.4 points – and if there was any doubt of his greatness, just rewatch his Olympics performance in Paris. And Durant played his most regular-season games (75) since rupturing an Achilles in Golden State and, along the way, averaged 27.1 points. These are truly dominant players, regardless of age, but their age makes their dominance all the more remarkable. They are reframing what is possible for NBA players at this stage of their career.
Which player will most outperform his ranking this season?
Holmes: Zion Williamson. He has the most potential to far outperform his ranking if he remains healthy for the Pelicans and if he’s as consistently dominant as he has shown himself to be in stretches. The term “unstoppable” is often overused, but when he’s at his best, there doesn’t seem much anyone can do to slow someone with his size, strength and agility from doing what he wants around the rim, or elsewhere in the half court. At times in the paint, he has looked, yes, Shaq-like – and he’s still just 24. Williamson played 70 regular-season games last season – his most yet – and he seems poised for taking a leap and becoming the player who was so hyped coming out of Duke.
Zion Williamson played a career-high 70 games last season, but a late injury saw him sit out the playoffs. Stephen Lew/USA TODAY SportsSnellings: LaMelo Ball. This is, essentially, just a bet that he stays reasonably healthy for the Charlotte Hornets this season. Ball was the Rookie of the Year in 2020-21, then made his first All-Star team as a second-year player. But in the two seasons since, injuries have limited him to only 56 of a possible 164 games. Ball’s game has continued to improve – he’s a better, more efficient scorer with better creative floor vision and execution now than as a rookie. If he can play the majority of his games this season, Ball should comfortably be a top-25 player.
Wright: Fred VanVleet. His rank at No. 79 sure feels low for a guy tasked with taking the lead in helping the Houston Rockets establish an entirely new culture under coach Ime Udoka while playing an instrumental role in the growth of young guards Jalen Green and Reed Sheppard. In VanVleet’s first season in Houston, the Rockets finished 41-41, a 19-win increase over the previous season, which ranked as the largest jump for any team in the NBA. Yet he somehow fell 23 spots after averaging a career high in assists (8.1)? As usual, VanVleet will bet on himself again in 2024-25 and win big.
Sedano: Keegan Murray at No. 94? Let’s rewind for a moment here: The Sacramento Kings forward had a strong rookie season in 2022-23, shooting 41% from 3 and finishing in the top five in Rookie of the Year voting. Last season, he took on the role of guarding other teams’ best players – with a small tick down in his offensive efficiency. In Year 3, he’s poised to be one of the better two-way players in the NBA. I was blown away by how easy the game came to him on both ends when I watched him in preseason action against Golden State. Defensively, he was impressive with five steals and impactful with his individual perimeter defense. The Kings have a star in the making.
Williams: Herb Jones. His defense alone is worth a better ranking than 97th. He is one of the best one-on-one defenders, ranking in the top 10 in points allowed per direct isolation among players to defend at least 125 isolations last season, per Second Spectrum. That will be key as the Pelicans switch more when a traditional center is not on the floor. And don’t sleep on Jones’ offense, as he led the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage from Jan. 1 to the end of the season among players with 100 attempts.
Which player is ranked too high on this list?
Wright: James Harden at No. 41. Admittedly, this could turn out to be premature (and perhaps just wrong), but he gets a shot again at being “a system” for the LA Clippers in the wake of Paul George’s departure and Kawhi Leonard’s expected load management. We’re likely to find out the 2018 MVP is no longer capable of carrying a team on a consistent basis, especially in the rough-and-tumble Western Conference, where we’ve seen five different teams over the past five years advance to the NBA Finals.
Williams: We will need to see how the season shakes out for the 82nd-ranked Mitchell Robinson. With his season debut not expected until January, his role will change with Karl-Anthony Towns now on the Knicks. Robinson will continue to be a key depth contributor with the Knicks, though, especially on the offensive glass as well as on defense using drop coverage on pick-and-rolls.
Sedano: Robinson’s ranking also was a surprise, mostly because he is currently unavailable as he works back from his injuries. You know the saying: “The best ability is availability.”
Holmes: Brandin Podziemski was a great find for the Warriors at No. 19 in last year’s draft, and he quickly established himself as an impact rookie on a veteran team. And I expect his role to expand even more this season. But I’m not sure that he’s the 78th-best player in the NBA – at least just yet. The 6-foot-4 guard averaged 9.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists last season – all impressive numbers for a player who came off the bench in many games. And the Warriors raved about him privately. He could, in time, establish himself as one of the top 75 players in the league, but I’m not sure he’s there just yet. (I’d happily be proved wrong here.)
Snellings: Dereck Lively II at No. 56. Not because I don’t think he can be that good, but because I’m not sure he’s even the most valuable center on the Dallas Mavericks at this moment. Daniel Gafford, who is unranked, seems likely to still be the starting center for the Mavericks this season with Lively coming off the bench. While Lively was a better matchup against the Boston Celtics in the Finals, Gafford was the man in the middle for the Mavs in the previous two rounds. Lively should only get better as his role on the Mavericks increases, but his ranking might still be a bit high for him.
By NBA Insiders, via ESPN