By Kevin Pelton, 2024-10-15 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
今年的 NBA 球员实力榜前 100 名出现了许多新面孔，其中有 20 名球员（占名单的五分之一）没有出现在 2023 年的榜单中。
过去，NBA 球员实力榜上的大多数新面孔都属于以下三类：之前被忽视的老将、冉冉升起的新星以及新秀。今年的情况很不寻常，因为榜单上完全没有新秀。下个赛季几乎肯定不会出现这种情况，届时以杜克大学前锋库珀·弗拉格（Cooper Flagg）（ESPN 百强新秀榜排名第一的球员）为首的一批备受瞩目的新秀预计将参加 NBA 选秀。然而，今年的前 100 名球员中有很大一部分是大二学生，共有五人上榜。
在这五人中，只有圣安东尼奥马刺队的球星维克托·文班亚马（Victor Wembanyama）是以新秀的身份入选的。这份榜单还列出了一些仅仅凭借自身实力上榜的球员，尤其是在季后赛中表现出色的球员。
在本周我们公布完整榜单的过程中（从排名 51-100 的球员开始），让我们预测一下最有希望在下赛季入选的 10 名球员。
明年的新秀
库珀·弗拉格（Cooper Flagg），杜克大学
亚特兰大老鹰队前锋扎凯里·里萨谢（Zaccharie Risacher）是自 2020 年的安东尼·爱德华兹（Anthony Edwards）以来首位没有以新秀身份进入前 100 名的状元秀。考虑到围绕 2025 年选秀的炒作，几乎可以肯定的是，无论谁成为状元，都将跻身前 100 名。在即将进入杜克大学开始他的大学生涯之际，弗拉格是最有可能成为状元的球员。如果他能像预期的那样表现出色，弗拉格将在一年后出现在这份榜单上。
杜克大学新生库珀·弗拉格在美国男篮国家队的夏季训练营中与 NBA 老将们对抗。 Ethan Miller/Getty Images 诺兰·特雷奥（Nolan Traore），圣康坦（法国）
在状元秀之后被选中的新秀出现在 NBA 球员实力榜上并不常见。事实上，在过去十年中，只有三名榜眼秀入选：朗佐·鲍尔（Lonzo Ball）（2017 年）、贾·莫兰特（Ja Morant）（2019 年）和杰伦·格林（Jalen Green）（2021 年）。尽管有这样的历史，但我还是看好特雷奥，他在耐克篮球峰会上的表现让他成为了一名顶级新秀。特雷奥在更年轻的时候就比里萨谢和另一位在法国打球的 2024 年乐透秀——夏洛特黄蜂队前锋蒂贾尼·萨劳恩（Tidjane Salaun）——更有成就。如果特雷奥能够在法国联赛中保持他的表现，我认为他会进入前 100 名。
冉冉升起的新星
扎克·伊迪（Zach Edey），孟菲斯灰熊队
每位年度最佳新秀都会出现在下一季的 NBA 球员实力榜上，而伊迪很可能是我季前赛对该奖项的预测人选。如果这位两届全美最佳球员能够保持首发球员的上场时间，并且表现与他在普渡大学时相差无几，那么他很有机会进入前 100 名。毕竟，与大多数高顺位新秀不同，伊迪加入的是一支有机会在本赛季以更健康的阵容取得巨大成功的灰熊队。
特雷·墨菲三世（Trey Murphy III），新奥尔良鹈鹕队
墨菲是我们预测在 2023 年也有可能进入今年 NBA 球员实力榜的两名球员之一，他的场均数据都有小幅提升，并在鹈鹕队重返季后赛的过程中发挥了关键作用。伤病限制了墨菲只打了 57 场比赛，而季后赛的快速出局也让他无缘今年的前 100 名。我仍然看好墨菲，尽管他在季前赛期间已经遭遇了腿筋拉伤。在某个时刻，墨菲的投篮和身材的结合将会为他赢得一个全职首发的位置，这将吸引 NBA 球员实力榜评审团的注意。
里德·谢泼德（Reed Sheppard），休斯顿火箭队
继伊迪之后，谢泼德将是我的下一个年度最佳新秀人选。如果火箭队在本赛季结束后放弃首发控球后卫弗雷德·范弗利特（Fred VanVleet），这位探花秀在第二年将有机会扮演更重要的角色。谢泼德精准的投篮（在肯塔基大学的唯一一个赛季里，他的三分球命中率高达 52%）、防守端的快手以及老练的组织能力让他在 2025-26 赛季的前景比排在他之前的两位球员（里萨谢和亚历克斯·萨尔（Alex Sarr））都要光明。
里德·谢泼德在拉斯维加斯夏季联赛中表现出色。(照片由 Stephen Gosling/NBAE 通过 Getty Images 提供) 阿门·汤普森（Amen Thompson），休斯顿火箭队
在所有错过去年 NBA 球员实力榜的 2023 年选秀球员中，没有人比汤普森的新秀赛季更有希望。在阿尔佩伦·申京（Alperen Sengun）赛季报销后，他作为首发球员表现尤为出色，在实际上担任首发中锋的情况下场均得到 13.9 分、9.2 个篮板和 3.6 次助攻。汤普森的防守全面性和运动能力应该非常适合与谢泼德一起担任第二阵容。最大的疑问是，考虑到休斯顿年轻球员的深度，汤普森的角色在进入第三个赛季后会如何发展。
德文·瓦塞尔（Devin Vassell），圣安东尼奥马刺队
和墨菲一样，瓦塞尔也重返了这份榜单。在很多方面，上个赛季都是瓦塞尔的突破之年。他场均得到 19.5 分和 4.1 次助攻，均创职业生涯新高，并且在 2022-23 赛季只打了 38 场比赛后，他在 68 场比赛中都保持了这样的表现。投票者可能希望看到瓦塞尔在更有意义的比赛环境中保持这样的表现，而文班亚马的发展——以及克里斯·保罗（Chris Paul）和哈里森·巴恩斯（Harrison Barnes）的加入——可能会在本赛季为他提供这样的机会。
处于边缘的球员
沃克·凯斯勒（Walker Kessler），犹他爵士队
凯斯勒是去年排名前 70 位但本赛季跌出榜单的三名球员之一，与另外两名球员（德安德烈·艾顿（Deandre Ayton）和约什·吉迪（Josh Giddey））相比，他更有可能改变目前对他的看法。
根据 NBA 高阶数据中 Second Spectrum 的跟踪数据，凯斯勒的篮筐保护能力（他的比赛优势）和他新秀赛季时一样有效。当凯斯勒是主要防守球员时，对手在 5 英尺内的投篮命中率仅为 51%，在所有符合条件的球员中排名第三低。2023-24 赛季的问题在于凯斯勒的两分球命中率从 72% 下降到 68%，以及他与前锋约翰·科林斯（John Collins）的配合问题。
随着犹他州将重点放在球员培养上，我预计 23 岁的凯斯勒将比进入合同最后一年的科林斯更受青睐。
德安东尼·梅尔顿（De’Anthony Melton），金州勇士队
考虑到梅尔顿从未进入过前 100 名，这可能有些乐观。然而，我认为如果他上赛季保持健康的话，他很有可能做到这一点。梅尔顿场均得到职业生涯最高的 11.1 分，是费城 76 人队首发五人组的关键一员，在他出场的情况下，球队的战绩为 22 胜 11 负。背伤限制了梅尔顿在 1 月 12 日之后只打了六场比赛，但他已经参加了训练营，并且有机会在金州勇士队扮演类似于 NBA 新秀唐特·迪温琴佐（Donte DiVincenzo）那样的关键角色。
特里·罗齐尔（Terry Rozier），迈阿密热火队
对于进入今年前 100 名的角色球员来说，球队战绩是一个共同的主题。由于颈部痉挛，他错过了去年季后赛的首轮比赛，罗齐尔自 2019 年效力于波士顿凯尔特人队以来就再也没有参加过季后赛。罗齐尔本赛季应该会回归，如果他保持健康，热火队这次可能会更有竞争力。这可能会转化为罗齐尔自 2021 年以来的首次 NBA 球员实力榜之旅。
点击查看原文：NBA Rank 2024-25: Edey, Flagg and the players to watch for next year
NBA Rank 2024-25: Edey, Flagg and the players to watch for next year
This year’s NBA Rank top 100 has plenty of new faces, with 20 players – one-fifth of the list – not appearing in 2023.
Most newcomers to previous NBA Rank lists fell into three categories: veterans who were previously passed over, rising stars and rookies. This year is unusual in having no rookies at all. That almost certainly won’t be the case next season, when a heralded crop of prospects headlined by Duke forward Cooper Flagg (the top-ranked prospect on ESPN’s Big Board) is expected to enter the NBA draft. However, this year’s top 100 is heavy on sophomores, with five on the list.
Of those five, only San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama was ranked as a rookie. The list also features a number of players who simply played their way on the list, particularly by excelling in the playoffs.
As we unveil our full list this week (starting with the players ranked 100-51), let’s predict the 10 players who have the best chance of appearing next season.
Next year’s rookies
Cooper Flagg, Duke
Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher is the first No. 1 pick not to make the top 100 as a rookie since Anthony Edwards in 2020. Given the hype around the 2025 draft, it’s almost certain that whoever emerges at No. 1 will crack the top 100. And heading into his freshman campaign at Duke, Flagg has the best chance to be taken No. 1. If he performs as expected, Flagg will be on this list in a year.
Duke freshman Cooper Flagg held his own against NBA veterans at Team USA’s summer camp. Ethan Miller/Getty ImagesNolan Traore, Saint-Quentin (France)
It’s less common for rookies taken after the No. 1 pick to appear in NBA Rank. In fact, just three No. 2 picks have been ranked in the past decade: Lonzo Ball (2017), Ja Morant (2019) and Jalen Green (2021). Despite that history, I’m betting on Traore, who emerged as a top-tier prospect with his play at the Nike Hoop Summit. Traore has been more productive at a younger age than Risacher and the other 2024 lottery pick who played in France, Charlotte Hornets forward Tidjane Salaun. If Traore can keep up his production in the French league, I think he’ll crack the top 100.
The rising stars
Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
Every Rookie of the Year has appeared on NBA Rank the following season, and Edey will likely be my preseason pick for the award. If the two-time consensus national player of the year can stay on the court for starter’s minutes and is anywhere near as productive as he was at Purdue, he stands an excellent chance of cracking the top 100. After all, unlike most of the top picks, Edey is joining a Grizzlies team with a chance to win big with better health this season.
Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans
One of two players who we also predicted in 2023 could make this year’s NBA Rank, Murphy made slight improvements across the board in his per-game averages and played a key role as the Pelicans returned to the playoffs. Injuries limited Murphy to 57 games, and a quick playoff exit conspired to keep him off the top 100 this season. I’m betting on Murphy again, even though he’s already dealing with a hamstring strain during the preseason. At some point, Murphy’s combination of shooting and size will earn him a full-time starting role that will capture the attention of the NBA Rank panel.
Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets
After Edey, Sheppard would be my next choice for Rookie of the Year. The No. 3 pick has a path to a much bigger role in Year 2 if the Rockets move on from starting point guard Fred VanVleet after this season. Sheppard’s accurate shooting (52% on 3s during his lone season at Kentucky), quick hands on defense and savvy playmaking give him a stronger outlook for 2025-26 than either of the players taken ahead of him (Risacher and Alex Sarr).
Reed Sheppard impressed at summer league in Las Vegas. (Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
Of the 2023 draft picks who missed out on this year’s NBA Rank, nobody had a more promising rookie campaign than Thompson. He particularly excelled as a starter after Alperen Sengun’s season-ending ankle sprain and bone bruise, averaging 13.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists as a de facto starting center. Thompson’s defensive versatility and athleticism should fit ideally on the second unit next to Sheppard. The biggest question mark is how Thompson’s role might grow heading into his third season, given Houston’s depth of young talent.
Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs
Like Murphy, Vassell is back for a second year on this list. In many ways, last season was Vassell’s breakout. He averaged 19.5 PPG and 4.1 APG, both career highs, and did so over 68 games after being limited to just 38 in his strong 2022-23 campaign. Voters probably want to see Vassell keep that production up in more meaningful settings, and Wembanyama’s development – along with the additions of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes – may give him that opportunity this season.
Players on the cusp
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
One of three players ranked in the top 70 last year who fell off this season’s list, Kessler has a better chance of altering his current perception than the other two (Deandre Ayton and Josh Giddey).
Kessler’s rim protection, the strength of his game, was as effective as it was during his rookie season, according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats. Opponents made just 51% of shots within 5 feet when Kessler was the primary defender, third lowest among qualifying players. The issue in 2023-24 was Kessler’s 2-point percentage dropping from 72% to 68%, as well as his fit with forward John Collins.
As Utah focuses on player development, I’d expect the 23-year-old Kessler to be favored over Collins, who is entering the final season of his contract.
De’Anthony Melton, Golden State Warriors
This might be optimistic, given that Melton has never rated in the top 100. I think he had a good chance of doing so last season had he stayed healthy, however. Melton averaged a career-high 11.1 PPG as a key part of the Philadelphia 76ers’ starting five that went 22-11 with him available. Back injuries limited Melton to six games after Jan. 12, but he’s on the court for training camp and has a chance to play a key role for Golden State along the lines of NBArank newcomer Donte DiVincenzo.
Terry Rozier, Miami Heat\
Team success is a common theme for the role players who joined this year’s top 100. Because he missed last year’s first-round loss because of neck spasms, Rozier hasn’t appeared in the playoffs since 2019 with the Boston Celtics. Rozier should get back this season, and if he’s healthy, the Heat could be more competitive this time around. That might translate into Rozier’s first NBA Rank appearance since 2021.
By Kevin Pelton, via ESPN