By Kevin Pelton, 2024-10-04 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
我基于统计数据的 30 支 NBA 球队胜场预测，在卡尔-安东尼·唐斯被交易至纽约尼克斯，明尼苏达森林狼队得到丹特·迪文琴佐和朱利叶斯·兰德尔的重磅交易后更新，试图解释一个典型的赛季走向。
在实践中，有很多情况可以让一支球队超越预测，从更好的健康状况到球员的进步，再到进行交易。因此，让我们来看看每支 NBA 球队的这种结果，看看它是如何改进其预测的——带有一点转折。
在即将到来的 NBA 选秀大会上，并不是每支球队都希望赢得比预测更多的比赛。像布鲁克林篮网队和华盛顿奇才队这样的重建球队肯定更希望赢得更少的比赛，以最大限度地提高他们的乐透抽签几率。因此，我们将看看减少他们关键球员的上场时间如何帮助他们实现这一目标。
考虑到这一点，以下是每支球队如何做得比预测更好（或者在某些情况下更差）。
跳转至： \
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE\
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND\
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN\
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX\
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
东部联盟
亚特兰大老鹰队
情况： 扎沙里·里萨赫 (Zaccharie Risacher) 证明了自己学习很快\
结果： 34.2 胜 (+2.3)
让十几岁的菜鸟上场通常是进入乐透区的最快方式，我在老鹰队最初的预测中强调了这种紧张局势。如果今年的 1 号秀里萨赫的表现超出预期呢？在这种情况下，我以帕特里克·威廉姆斯的新秀赛季为指导，认为里萨赫可以立即成为一名有能力的低使用率的 3D 球员。仅此一项就能为亚特兰大队额外带来两场胜利。
波士顿凯尔特人队
情况： 再次成为 NBA 最佳进攻球队\
结果： 54.3 胜 (+1.9)
即使首发中锋克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯预计将因伤缺阵到 12 月，但我仍然惊讶地发现，凯尔特人队在上赛季创下 NBA 历史最佳战绩后，本赛季的进攻效率仅排名第四。如果我们把波士顿队提升到联盟第一，那么这支卫冕冠军队的预测胜场数将是所有球队中最高的。
布鲁克林篮网队
情况： 交易首发球员\
结果： 35.1 胜 (-1.8)
我很惊讶这个数字没有更高，但是将尼克·克拉克斯顿、多里安·芬尼-史密斯、卡梅隆·约翰逊和丹尼斯·施罗德的上场时间重新分配给队内其他球员，篮网队的胜场数就会减少几场。部分原因是篮网队在 2024 年没有选秀权。（他们唯一的菜鸟，落选后卫崔永熙，没有预测。）在实践中，如果篮网队清空了他们的阵容，他们可能会从发展联盟召回评价更差的球员来填补其中的一些空缺。
夏洛特黄蜂队
情况： 拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 保持健康\
结果： 31.4 胜 (+1.9)
黄蜂队目前的处境是，他们最好还是朝另一个方向发展，但我想说明拉梅洛·鲍尔健康状况的影响。在过去两个赛季只打了 58 场比赛后，他预计本赛季能打 60 场比赛。如果我们把这个数字提高到 76 场，这是我模型中任何球员的最大值——与鲍尔在 2021-22 赛季的 75 场比赛相似——这几乎相当于两场胜利。
芝加哥公牛队
情况： 交易扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine)\
结果： 29.9 胜 (-1.9)
如果公牛队通过用拉文换取到期合同并将其上场时间重新分配到队内来进行全面重建，我认为他们的预测胜场数将低于 30 场，进入联盟倒数前五。这将使芝加哥队更有可能保住明年的首轮选秀权，如果他们在联盟前 10 名之外，这个选秀权将归圣安东尼奥马刺队所有。
克利夫兰骑士队
情况： 埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 赢得最佳防守球员\
结果： 51.3 胜 (+0.7)
现实情况是，骑士队的预测很难再有提高，他们的预测胜场数已经是东部第二了。在这种情况下，我给了莫布里所有老将球员中最好的防守效率，这意味着他在 2022-23 赛季的投票中排名第三后，本赛季将获得最佳防守球员。这为克利夫兰队增加了近一场胜利。
底特律活塞队
情况： 凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 实现飞跃\
结果： 30.8 胜 (+2.0)
尽管坎宁安在上赛季取得了稳步的进步，场均得到职业生涯最高的 22.7 分和 7.5 次助攻，但这并不是我们期待这位 2021 年状元秀取得的突破性赛季。假设他追随了一年前被选为状元的安东尼·爱德华兹的脚步。与爱德华兹上赛季的进攻效率相匹配，活塞队将获得两场胜利。
印第安纳步行者队
情况： 成为联盟进攻最好的球队\
结果： 49.2 胜 (+2.5)
步行者队的进攻预测很好，当然，但还没有达到泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 1 月份腿筋受伤之前 NBA 最佳进攻的水平。如果我们与其他任何球队的最佳进攻预测相匹配，再加上防守的改进，那么步行者队的预期胜场数将超过 49 场。
迈阿密热火队
情况： 凯莱布·马丁 (Caleb Martin) 立即做出贡献\
结果： 46.1 胜 (+1.2)
作为我在拉斯维加斯举行的 NBA 夏季联赛中选出的最佳新秀，今年选秀大会上的 15 号秀马丁的表现轻松超过了他 скромный 的预测。假设马丁能够复制达拉斯独行侠队中锋德里克·莱弗利二世在上赛季新秀赛季的表现。即使在全明星首发球员巴姆·阿德巴约身后的出场时间有限，这也将为迈阿密队增加一场以上的胜利。
密尔沃基雄鹿队
情况： 达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 回到进攻前五\
结果： 48.3 胜 (+1.6)
利拉德在进攻端的预测并不弱，这就是为什么这没有产生更大影响的原因。他预计将成为联盟中进攻第 14 好的球员。然而，现实情况是，利拉德在密尔沃基效力一年后，很有可能成为进攻前五的球员。利拉德在波特兰开拓者队的最后一个赛季就轻松超越了这个目标。
纽约尼克斯队
情况： 杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 再次入选最佳阵容一阵\
结果： 47.5 胜 (+2.1)
布伦森发展成为 NBA 中 arguably 的前五名球员，这是他职业生涯的新高度，因此不可避免地，他的预测会考虑到他之前比赛的一些回归。如果布伦森能够复制上赛季的表现，那么尼克斯队的预期胜场数将增加两场以上。
奥兰多魔术队
情况： 保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 更上一层楼\
结果： 45.4 胜 (+1.9)
魔术队在上赛季防守效率排名第三，并在休赛期签下了肯塔维奥斯·卡德维尔-波普，因此他们的防守预测排名前三。如果班凯罗在上赛季入选全明星阵容后，能够继续发展成为一名关键球员，那么他们的进攻将会受益。将他的进攻预测每 100 回合提高一点，奥兰多队的胜场数就会增加近两场。
费城76人队
情况： 保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 复制上赛季的表现\
结果： 47.1 胜 (+1.9)
乔治的预测被两个因素拖累了：他的年龄（34 岁）和球员转会后的调整。如果我们假设乔治能够在进攻端复制他在 2023-24 赛季的表现，那么费城队的预测胜场数将增加近两场。
多伦多猛龙队
情况： 布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown Jr.) 交易截止日交易\
结果： 32.6 胜 (-1.3)
尽管猛龙队预计将进入附加赛的争夺中，但他们在上赛季将自己的乐透签送给了马刺队后，可能会更愿意积累乐透签。（那个签位变成了罗伯·迪林厄姆，他的签约权被交易到了明尼苏达森林狼队。）多伦多队排名下降的一个简单方法就是交易掉布朗，他在本赛季结束后将成为自由球员，并将他的上场时间交给首轮秀格莱德·沃尔特。仅仅这一项改变就将猛龙队的预测排名降至联盟倒数第八，并接近倒数第五。
华盛顿奇才队
情况： 乔丹·普尔 (Jordan Poole) 又一个低迷的赛季\
结果： 21.8 胜 (-2.3)
奇才队的预测胜场数是 NBA 中最低的，他们似乎没有太多空间再下降了。然而，普尔的预测认为他在被交易到华盛顿并表现挣扎之前，在金州勇士队度过了两个更加出色的赛季。如果他重复上赛季的进攻效率，那么奇才队的预测胜场数将减少两场以上，这将使其更接近 ESPN BET 对该队 20.5 场的预测胜场数。
西部联盟
达拉斯独行侠队
情况： 重复全明星赛后的防守\
结果： 50.7 胜 (+1.0)
独行侠队的进攻预测排名第二，但随着前锋德里克·琼斯二世的离开，他们的防守预计将略低于联盟平均水平。如果达拉斯能够重复上赛季全明星赛后防守效率排名第 13 的成绩，那么独行侠队的预期胜场数将超过 50 场。
丹佛掘金队
情况： 克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (Christian Braun) 成为 KCP\
结果： 48.9 胜 (+1.5)
在这种情况下，我给了布劳恩肯塔维奥斯·卡德维尔-波普如果与掘金队续约后的预测。这足以让丹佛队的胜场数增加一场半。在实践中，留住卡德维尔-波普将更有利于提高掘金队的预测胜场数，因为布劳恩仍然会在评级较低的后备球员之前进入轮换阵容。
金州勇士队
情况： 斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 挑战年龄\
结果： 47.7 胜 (+2.9)
说实话，这不仅仅是年龄的问题。我的预测是将异常值球员拉回到平均水平，所以即使在库里的巅峰时期，他也无法预测自己会像前一个赛季那样具有统治力。但如果库里能够保持他在 2023-24 赛季的进攻效率，那么勇士队的预测胜场数将增加近三场。
休斯顿火箭队
情况： 年轻球员保持防守进步\
结果： 43.9 胜 (+3.5)
很大程度上是因为休斯顿队在过去两个赛季的防守都很糟糕，最近的乐透秀杰伦·格林和贾巴里·史密斯二世的防守预测都很糟糕。上个赛季，他们在防守效率高于平均水平的球队中，上场时间排名第二和第三。如果他们能保持这种水平，那么火箭队的防守预测将从第 13 位上升到第 7 位，这相当于增加了 3.5 场胜利。
洛杉矶快船队
情况： 科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 出战 68 场比赛\
结果： 38.0 胜 (+1.7)
由于伦纳德的伤病史，他本赛季预计将出战 54 场比赛。考虑到伦纳德正在控制他的膝盖炎症，这让他在 2024 年季后赛期间缺席并让他无缘美国奥运代表队，这似乎是合理的。如果伦纳德能够像上赛季那样出战 68 场比赛并打 2,330 分钟，将这些时间从替补科比·布朗和阿米尔·科菲手中夺走，那么快船队的平均胜场数将增加近两场。在保罗·乔治离开后，这个估计可能还比较保守。
洛杉矶湖人队
情况： 安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 出战 76 场比赛\
结果： 42.1 胜 (+1.4)
戴维斯预计出战 68 场比赛，这个数字并不低，但仍然比他 2023-24 赛季的比赛场次和上场时间要少，当时他打了 2,700 分钟，这是他自 2017-18 赛季以来的最高值。值得注意的是，即使戴维斯重复上赛季的表现，湖人队的预测胜场数也无法达到上赛季的 47 场。这主要是因为他们每场比赛 +0.6 分的净胜分通常会转化为 42 到 43 场胜利。
孟菲斯灰熊队
情况： 小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.) 赢得最佳防守球员\
结果： 52.2 胜 (+1.1)
在 2022-23 赛季场均送出联盟最高的 3 次盖帽并获得最佳防守球员后，杰克逊上赛季经历了一次不同寻常的下滑，他的盖帽率下降了一半。这损害了杰克逊的防守预测，但让我们假设这是由于他周围的队友不断变化造成的偶然事件。如果我们给杰克逊 NBA 最佳防守预测，那么灰熊队本就乐观的胜场预测将再增加一场。
明尼苏达森林狼队
情况： 再次成为 NBA 最佳防守球队\
结果： 46.9 胜 (+4.2)
森林狼队最初的预测如此糟糕的原因很简单，因为他们在上赛季领跑联盟后，本赛季的防守效率预计排名第九。我的预测考虑了多个赛季的数据，其中包括 2022-23 赛季，当时明尼苏达的防守效率排名第 10。尽管如此，森林狼队上赛季的防守方式并没有什么问题，而控球后卫丹特·迪文琴佐的加入可能会提升他们的外线防守。如果我们将明尼苏达的防守效率推到首位，那么他们可能会再增加四场胜利。
新奥尔良鹈鹕队
情况： 锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson) 出战 70 场比赛\
结果： 43.1 胜 (+1.5)
威廉姆森只打了 50 场比赛，是除了那些已经受伤的球员之外，预测胜场数最低的球员。将这个数字提高到威廉姆森上赛季的 70 场，可能会让鹈鹕队跃居前八，尽管由于球队中锋轮换阵容薄弱，他们的胜场数仍然落后于上赛季的 49 场。升级 5 号位将使新奥尔良队更接近这一目标。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
情况： 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 保持健康\
结果： 54.6 胜 (+0.9)
由于在 2023-24 赛季打了 82 场比赛后，霍姆格伦因跖跗关节受伤缺席了整个新秀赛季，他本赛季预计将出战 67 场比赛。如果我们折中一下，给霍姆格伦最高的 76 场比赛预测，那么雷霆队本就排名 NBA 第一的预测胜场数将再增加近一场。
菲尼克斯太阳队
情况： 凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 帮助球队进入进攻前五\
结果： 46.9 胜 (+1.5)
考虑到阵容中的顶级天才球员，再加上角色球员提供的投篮，菲尼克斯队上赛季进攻效率排名第 10 令人失望——这可能是蒙蒂·威廉姆斯被取代为主教练的一个因素。弗兰克·沃格尔上任，他在执教密尔沃基雄鹿队的第一个赛季就将球队的进攻效率从第九位提升至前五名，并在接下来的四个赛季中保持了三年的前五名。仅仅进入前五名就足以提升太阳队的排名，并为他们增加一场半的胜利。
波特兰开拓者队
情况： 首发球员上场时间减少\
结果： 31.9 胜 (-0.9)
杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant) 上赛季出战 1,830 分钟，领跑饱受伤病困扰的开拓者队，因此五名波特兰球员（格兰特、约什·哈特、谢顿·夏普、安芬尼·西蒙斯和斯库特·亨德森）本赛季的预测上场时间至少为 2,000 分钟，这或许过于乐观了。如果我们将老将球员的上场时间 each 减少 300 分钟，并将这些上场时间交给年轻的替补球员，那么开拓者队的预测胜场数将减少近一场。
萨克拉门托国王队
情况： 德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan) 复制上赛季的表现\
结果： 51.5 胜 (+2.1)
就像费城 76 人队的保罗·乔治一样，德罗赞的预测因为他的年龄和转会而有所下降。在这种情况下，这感觉更准确一些，因为德罗赞与达龙·福克斯和多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯并肩作战，他的角色将会发生巨大变化。尽管如此，如果德罗赞能够复制他在芝加哥公牛队的表现，那么国王队本就强劲的预测胜场数将再增加两场以上。
圣安东尼奥马刺队
情况： 斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 发展出外线投篮\
结果： 36.3 胜 (+2.8)
今年六月的四号秀卡斯尔在新秀赛季就将扮演重要的角色，这使得他的发展成为马刺队最终胜场数的重要因素。卡斯尔在康涅狄格大学的唯一一个赛季里，三分球命中率只有 27%，这表明他需要适应 NBA。我以凯森·华莱士在新秀赛季效力俄克拉荷马城雷霆队时的进攻效率作为卡斯尔潜力的模型，因为华莱士在肯塔基大学的投篮命中率为 35%，而在 NBA 的投篮命中率跃升至 42%。仅仅是这种表现就会为圣安东尼奥队增加近三场胜利。
犹他爵士队
情况： 让劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen) 休战\
结果： 27.9 胜 (-1.3)
爵士队的预测胜场数已经是西部最少的，他们可能不需要像过去两个赛季那样在交易截止日后排名下降。尽管如此，将马尔卡宁的上场时间限制在上赛季的 1,820 分钟，并将这些时间重新分配给二年级前锋沃克·凯斯勒和新秀基翁泰·乔治和泰勒·亨德里克斯，爵士队的预测排名将从倒数第四位上升到倒数第二位——这是乐透区的黄金位置。
点击查看原文：How each NBA team can win or lose more games than projected
How each NBA team can win or lose more games than projected
My stats-based wins projections for all 30 NBA teams, updated after the blockbuster trade sending Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks in exchange for a package that netted the Minnesota Timberwolves Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle, are an attempt to account for a typical scenario of how the season plays out.
In practice, there are plenty of scenarios that can allow a team to beat its projection, from better health to player improvement to making trades. So let’s run through one such outcome for each NBA team and see how it can improve its projection – with a twist.
Leading into what’s expected to be a loaded NBA draft, not every team wants to win more games than projected. Rebuilding teams like the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards would surely prefer to win fewer games, maximizing their lottery odds. So we’ll look at how pushing down the minutes of their key players might help them accomplish that goal.
With that in mind, here’s how each team can do better (or in some cases, worse) than projected.
Jump to:\
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE\
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND\
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN\
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX\
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks
Scenario: Risacher proves a quick study\
Result: 34.2 wins (+2.3)
Playing teenage rookies is usually the fastest way to the lottery, a tension I highlighted in the Hawks’ original projection. What if this year’s No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher beats his projections? For this scenario, I used Patrick Williams’ rookie season as a guide to Risacher being a capable low-usage, 3-and-D player right off the bat. That alone would provide Atlanta with an additional two wins.
Boston Celtics
Scenario: Repeat as NBA’s best offense\
Result: 54.3 wins (+1.9)
Even with an injury that is expected to sideline starting center Kristaps Porzingis until December, I was surprised that the Celtics projected just fourth in offensive rating after posting the best mark in NBA history last season. If we bump up Boston to the top of the league, that gives the defending champs the best projection for any team.
Brooklyn Nets
Scenario: Trade starters\
Result: 35.1 wins (-1.8)
I’m shocked this isn’t higher, but redistributing minutes from Nic Claxton, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cameron Johnson and Dennis Schroder within the roster pushes Brooklyn down a couple of wins. Part of the reason it isn’t more is the Nets have no 2024 draft picks on the roster. (Their only rookie, undrafted guard Yongxi Cui, does not have a projection.) In practice, if the Nets gutted their roster, they’d probably call up players from the G League who would rate far worse to fill some of those minutes.
Charlotte Hornets
Scenario: LaMelo Ball stays healthy\
Result: 31.4 wins (+1.9)
The Hornets are in a spot where they’d probably be better off going the other direction, but I wanted to show the impact of LaMelo Ball’s health. He’s projected for 60 games after playing just 58 combined the past two seasons. If we nudge that up to 76 games, the max for any player in my model – and similar to the 75 Ball played in 2021-22 – it’s worth almost two wins.
Chicago Bulls
Scenario: Trade Zach LaVine\
Result: 29.9 wins (-1.9)
If the Bulls went full rebuild by trading LaVine for expiring contracts and redistributed those minutes within their roster, I have their projection falling below 30 wins, into the bottom five overall. That would put Chicago in a stronger position to keep next year’s first-round pick, which goes to San Antonio if it’s outside the top 10.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Scenario: Evan Mobley wins Defensive Player of the Year\
Result: 51.3 wins (+0.7)
The reality is it’s hard to improve much on the Cavaliers’ projection, already second best in the East. In this scenario, I’ve given Mobley the best defensive rating of any veteran player, reflecting a leap to winning Defensive Player of the Year after finishing third in the voting in 2022-23. That adds almost a win to Cleveland’s total.
Detroit Pistons
Scenario: Cade Cunningham makes the leap\
Result: 30.8 wins (+2.0)
Although Cunningham made solid progress last season, averaging career-high marks of 22.7 points and 7.5 assists per game, it wasn’t the breakout season we’ve awaited from the 2021 No. 1 pick. Let’s say he follows in the footsteps of the player drafted No. 1 a year earlier, Anthony Edwards. Matching Edwards’ offensive rating from last season would generate a two-win swing for the Pistons.
Indiana Pacers
Scenario: Become the league’s best offense\
Result: 49.2 wins (+2.5)
The Pacers’ offensive projection is good, certainly, but not quite at the level of what was the best offense in the NBA before Tyrese Haliburton’s hamstring injury in January. If we match the best offensive projection for any other team, in combination with an improved defense, that pushes Indiana’s expectation north of 49 wins.
Miami Heat
Scenario: Kel’el Ware contributes immediately\
Result: 46.1 wins (+1.2)
My pick as the best rookie at the NBA summer league in Las Vegas, the No. 15 pick in this year’s draft easily outplayed his modest projection. Let’s say Ware matches the production from Mavericks center Dereck Lively II as a rookie last season. Even in a limited role behind All-Star starter Bam Adebayo, that would add more than a win to Miami’s outlook.
Milwaukee Bucks
Scenario: Damian Lillard back to top-five status offensively\
Result: 48.3 wins (+1.6)
Lillard’s projection on offense is hardly weak, which is why this doesn’t have more impact. He projects as the league’s 14th-best offensive player. It’s realistic, however, for Lillard to be a top-five player on offense with a year of experience in Milwaukee. Lillard easily surpassed that during his final season with the Portland Trail Blazers.
New York Knicks
Scenario: Jalen Brunson repeats as All-NBA first team\
Result: 47.5 wins (+2.1)
Brunson’s development into arguably a top-five player in the NBA was a new high-water mark for his performance, so inevitably his projection factors in some regression toward his previous play. If Brunson could duplicate last season’s level of performance, it would add more than two wins to the Knicks’ outlook.
Orlando Magic
Scenario: Paolo Banchero takes the next step\
Result: 45.4 wins (+1.9)
The Magic have a top-three defensive projection after finishing third last season and adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency. Their offense would benefit from Banchero continuing his development into a go-to guy after earning All-Star honors last season. Boosting his offensive projection by a little more than a point per 100 possessions results in nearly two more wins for Orlando.
Philadelphia 76ers
Scenario: Paul George has a repeat season\
Result: 47.1 wins (+1.9)
George’s projection is dragged down by a couple of factors: his age (34) and the adjustment when players change teams. If we assume George could repeat his 2023-24 performance on offense, that would add nearly two wins to Philadelphia’s projection.
Toronto Raptors
Scenario: Bruce Brown Jr. deadline trade\
Result: 32.6 wins (-1.3)
Although the Raptors project to be in the mix for a play-in spot, they might prefer accumulating lottery odds after sending their own lotto pick to the Spurs last season. (That pick became Rob Dillingham, whose rights were traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves.) One simple way for Toronto to head south in the standings would be dealing Brown, who is in the final season of his contract, and giving those minutes to first-round pick Ja’Kobe Walter. That single change moves the Raptors into the league’s bottom eight projections and within striking distance of the bottom five.
Washington Wizards
Scenario: Jordan Poole has another down year\
Result: 21.8 wins (-2.3)
With the NBA’s lowest win projection, the Wizards seemingly wouldn’t have much more room to drop. However, Poole’s projection gives him credit for two stronger seasons in Golden State before being dealt to Washington and struggling. If he repeats last season’s offensive rating, that drops Washington’s projection more than two wins, bringing it closer to the team’s 20.5 over/under total at ESPN BET.
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks
Scenario: Repeat post-All-Star defense\
Result: 50.7 wins (+1.0)
The Mavericks have the second-best offensive projection of any team, but their defense is forecast slightly worse than league average after the departure of forward Derrick Jones Jr. If Dallas could repeat ranking 13th in defensive rating after last year’s All-Star break, that would push the Mavericks’ expectation north of 50 wins.
Denver Nuggets
Scenario: Christian Braun becomes KCP\
Result: 48.9 wins (+1.5)
In this scenario, I gave Braun what Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s projection would have been had he re-signed with the Nuggets. That’s enough to add a win and a half to Denver’s total. In practice, retaining Caldwell-Pope would have done even more to improve the Nuggets’ projections because Braun would still be part of the rotation ahead of lower-rated reserves.
Golden State Warriors
Scenario: Stephen Curry defies aging\
Result: 47.7 wins (+2.9)
Truthfully, this is a little more than aging. My projections pull outlier players back to the pack, so even in Curry’s prime he wouldn’t have been forecast to stay quite as dominant as the previous season. But if Curry could run back his offensive rating from 2023-24, it would lift the Warriors’ projection nearly three wins.
Houston Rockets
Scenario: Youngsters maintain defensive improvement\
Result: 43.9 wins (+3.5)
In large part because Houston was so bad defensively in the two previous seasons, recent lottery picks Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. have dismal defensive projections. Last season, they were second and third in minutes played on an above-average defense. If they perform at that level, it would lift the Rockets’ defensive projection from 13th to seventh, worth 3.5 wins in the standings.
LA Clippers
Scenario: Kawhi Leonard plays 68 games\
Result: 38.0 wins (+1.7)
Because of Leonard’s injury history, he’s projected for 54 games this season. Given that Leonard is managing inflammation in his knee that sidelined him during the 2024 playoffs and kept him off the U.S. Olympic roster, that seems reasonable. If Leonard were instead able to match last season’s totals of 68 games and 2,330 minutes, taking those away from reserves Kobe Brown and Amir Coffey, it would add nearly two wins for the Clippers on average. That estimate might be conservative following Paul George’s departure.
Los Angeles Lakers
Scenario: Anthony Davis plays 76 games\
Result: 42.1 wins (+1.4)
Davis’ projection of 68 games isn’t nearly as low, but it is still fewer games and minutes than he played during 2023-24, when his 2,700 minutes were his most since 2017-18. It’s worth noting that even a repeat from Davis doesn’t get the Lakers’ projection to last season’s total of 47 wins. That’s largely because their point differential of +0.6 points per game would typically translate to between 42 and 43 wins.
Memphis Grizzlies
Scenario: Jaren Jackson Jr. wins Defensive Player of the Year\
Result: 52.2 wins (+1.1)
After leading the NBA with three blocks per game in 2022-23 en route to Defensive Player of the Year honors, Jackson experienced an unusual downturn last season, seeing his block rate drop by half. That hurt Jackson’s defensive projection, but let’s assume it was a fluke related to the revolving door of teammates around him. If we give Jackson the NBA’s best defensive projection, it improves the Grizzlies’ already rosy win outlook by another game.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Scenario: Repeat as NBA’s best defense\
Result: 46.9 wins (+4.2)
The simple explanation for why the Timberwolves’ initial projection is so poor is that they’re projected ninth in defensive rating after leading the league last season. My projections take in multiple seasons of data, which includes 2022-23, when Minnesota ranked 10th on defense. Still, there was nothing fluky about the way the Timberwolves defended last season, and adding guard Donte DiVincenzo likely upgrades their perimeter defense. If we push Minnesota to the top in terms of defensive rating, that could give it an additional four wins.
New Orleans Pelicans
Scenario: Zion Williamson plays 70 games\
Result: 43.1 wins (+1.5)
At 50 games, Williamson has the lowest possible projection aside from players with preexisting injuries. Boosting that to the 70 Williamson played last season could jump the Pelicans into the top eight spots, albeit still behind last season’s 49-win pace because of the team’s weak center rotation. An upgrade at the 5-spot would get New Orleans closer that pace.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Scenario: Chet Holmgren stays healthy\
Result: 54.6 wins (+0.9)
Due to missing his entire first NBA season following a Lisfranc injury, Holmgren is forecast for 67 games after playing all 82 during 2023-24. If we split the difference and give Holmgren the maximum projection of 76 games, that lifts Oklahoma City’s outlook – already best in the NBA – by nearly another win.
Phoenix Suns
Scenario: Kevin Durant helps lead a top-five offense\
Result: 46.9 wins (+1.5)
Given the high-end talent on the roster, plus the shooting provided by role players, Phoenix finishing 10th in offensive rating last season was a disappointment – and probably a factor in Frank Vogel being replaced as head coach. Enter Mike Budenholzer, who guided the Bucks from ninth in offensive rating the season before his arrival in Milwaukee to top-five finishes three of the next four years. Merely reaching the top five would be enough to bump the Suns up and provide them with a win and a half.
Portland Trail Blazers
Scenario: Fewer minutes for starters\
Result: 31.9 wins (-0.9)
Jerami Grant led last season’s injury-riddled Blazers by playing 1,830 minutes, so it’s perhaps overly optimistic that five Portland players (Grant, Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons) are projected for at least 2,000 this season. If we drop the veterans’ minutes by 300 apiece, giving that playing time to younger reserves, the Blazers’ projection drops nearly a full win.
Sacramento Kings
Scenario: DeMar DeRozan repeats last season\
Result: 51.5 wins (+2.1)
Like Paul George in Philadelphia, DeRozan sees his projection decline because of his age and changing teams. In this case, that feels more accurate because DeRozan’s role will change dramatically playing alongside De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Still, if DeRozan could repeat his play with the Chicago Bulls, it would add more than two wins to what’s already a strong Sacramento projection.
San Antonio Spurs
Scenario: Stephon Castle develops outside shooting\
Result: 36.3 wins (+2.8)
The No. 4 pick this June figures to play a key role for the Spurs as a rookie, making his development a major factor in their eventual win total. Castle shot just 27% from 3-point range in his lone season at UConn, suggesting an adjustment to the NBA. I’ve used Cason Wallace’s offensive rating as a rookie with the Oklahoma City Thunder as a model for Castle’s upside, given Wallace shot 35% at Kentucky before jumping to 42% in the NBA. That kind of play by itself would add nearly three wins for San Antonio.
Utah Jazz
Scenario: Shut down Lauri Markkanen\
Result: 27.9 wins (-1.3)
With what’s already the weakest projection for any West team, the Jazz might not need to drop in the standings after the trade deadline like they have the past two seasons. Still, cutting off Markkanen at last season’s total of 1,820 minutes and redistributing those to second-year forward Taylor Hendricks and rookies Kyle Filipowski and Cody Williams pushes Utah from the fourth-worst projection overall to second worst – prime lottery position.
By Kevin Pelton, via ESPN