By Kevin Pelton, 2024-09-28 13:59:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
编者按： 本文最初发表于 9 月 25 日，现已更新，以反映周五报道的纽约尼克斯队和明尼苏达森林狼队之间的交易。
NBA 训练营将于周二开始，随着各支球队为季前赛做准备，现在是时候预测所有 30 支球队在新赛季的表现了。
我的年度预测结合了我自己的 SCHOENE 预测系统得出的技术统计数据、调整后的正负值数据，以及我根据目前伤病情况对每支球队轮换阵容的猜测。
去年对预测来说是惨淡的一年，在每支球队的胜负场总数方面，我的预测只正确预测了 30 支球队中的 9 支。今年夏天，我花了很多时间重新审视模型。最大的变化是根据 Krishna Narsu 的数据，使用过去三个赛季的出场时间来加权球员预测中经过运气调整的 RAPM 部分。这种调整和其他一些较小的调整在测试中产生了更好的样本外结果。
一个关键的变化是，胜场预测不再像以前那样集中在 0.500 胜率附近。由于我们关注的是平均胜场数，因此它们仍然倾向于平均值，因为球队可能会因伤病和球员爆发而表现出极大的起伏，但有四支球队在本赛季平均预计至少赢得 50 场比赛，而上赛季只有最终的冠军波士顿凯尔特人队做到了这一点。
让我们来看看哪些球队能与凯尔特人队一起位居榜首，哪支西部决赛球队可能会跌出排行榜，以及其他预测。
跳转至： \
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE\
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND\
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN\
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX\
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
东部联盟
- 波士顿凯尔特人队
平均胜场数：52.4 场
在赢得 64 场比赛并夺得球队自 2008 年以来的首个总冠军后，凯尔特人队在 2024-25 常规赛中可能不会那么有动力了。在过去十年中，在 82 场比赛中赢得 60 场比赛的 12 支球队中，只有 4 支球队在接下来的一个赛季中重复了这一壮举。在此期间，唯一一支在夺冠后卫冕成功的球队是 2015-16 赛季的金州勇士队。
再加上预计将使首发中锋克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯（Kristaps Porzingis）缺阵到 12 月的脚踝手术，考虑到这一点，尽管波士顿队带回了上赛季的全部轮换阵容，但预计他们的胜场数会减少，这是合理的。
- 克利夫兰骑士队
平均胜场数：50.6 场
骑士队决定优先考虑阵容的延续性，这在预测中得到了回报，预测显示他们的平均胜场数接近 2022-23 赛季的 51 场。一个重要的注意事项是：阵容契合度是这些预测中没有捕捉到的最重要因素之一，而克利夫兰队的球星们如何互补将是本赛季的一大看点。
- 密尔沃基雄鹿队
平均胜场数：46.7 场
正如我在关于最有可能进步和退步的球队的文章中指出的那样，年龄自然是预测胜负的一个关键因素。上赛季，雄鹿队的球员平均年龄在联盟中排名第二，仅次于洛杉矶快船队。基于这一因素，雄鹿队的胜场数略低于上赛季的 49 场也就不足为奇了。
- 印第安纳步行者队
平均胜场数：46.7 场
在打入东部决赛并拥有帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆（Pascal Siakam）一个完整赛季的情况下，步行者队希望能够提高上赛季 47 场的胜场数。健康状况是降低预期的原因之一。球星后卫泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿（Tyrese Haliburton）上赛季受到腿筋伤势的困扰，但根据我的数据库，印第安纳队因伤病或非新冠病毒疾病缺阵的比赛场次（111 场）在联盟中排名倒数第二。
- 纽约尼克斯队
平均胜场数：45.4 场
在周五报道的卡尔-安东尼·唐斯（Karl-Anthony Towns）交易中，尼克斯队跃居费城 76 人队，升至第五位。唐斯是尼克斯队中锋位置上薄弱阵容的巨大升级。失去多特·迪温琴佐（Donte DiVincenzo）和朱利叶斯·兰德尔（Julius Randle）让尼克斯队的外线实力有所减弱，如果他们在那里遭遇长期伤病，这可能是一个问题。然而，迈尔斯·麦克布莱德（Miles McBride）被认为是一名有能力的第六人，而且纽约队可以通过在季后赛加强他们的首发五人阵容来获得更多好处。
- 费城 76 人队
平均胜场数：45.2 场
在自由球员市场签下保罗·乔治（Paul George）后，76 人队的预测感觉有点低（在纽约据报道与唐斯达成交易后，他们的排名进一步下滑）。值得记住的是，尽管费城在自由球员市场上很好地补充了他们的阵容，但拥有六名拿着底薪合同的球员通常不是阵容深度的秘诀。76 人队也有机会在本赛季中期利用小凯尼恩·马丁（Kenyon Martin Jr.）作为匹配的薪资，以及几笔可交易的首轮选秀权来升级阵容。
- 迈阿密热火队
平均胜场数：44.9 场
这一预测介于热火队过去两个赛季赢得的 44 场和 46 场比赛之间。这两个赛季之后是截然不同的季后赛之旅：2023 年的 NBA 总决赛之旅，以及去年首轮五场输给波士顿。对于迈阿密来说，健康地进入季后赛比积累常规赛的胜利更重要。
- 奥兰多魔术队
平均胜场数：43.5 场
魔术队一年前凭借着 NBA 最年轻的阵容之一赢得了 47 场比赛，然后在自由球员市场签下了老将肯塔维奥斯·卡德维尔-波普（Kentavious Caldwell-Pope），根据 ESPN BET 的数据，这使得他们的胜负场总数超过/低于 48.5 场。我的预测认为他们会滑向 0.500 胜率，这在很大程度上是因为球员数据的多年样本。奥兰多的进步如此之快——从 2021-22 赛季的 22 场胜利（阵容相对相似）到 2022-23 赛季的 34 场胜利，再到上赛季的飞跃——以至于过去的表现仍然阻碍着魔术队的预测。我们将拭目以待，看看魔术队能否连续两年打破“有机玻璃原则”。
- 布鲁克林篮网队
平均胜场数：36.9 场
当篮网队将米卡尔·布里奇斯（Mikal Bridges）交易到同城对手尼克斯队时，感觉就像是为了追求乐透签而拆散阵容的一系列举动中的第一步。但篮网队在今年夏天剩下的时间里按兵不动，这意味着他们的阵容中仍然有很多 NBA 水平的球员——至少目前是这样。到交易截止日期，篮网队的阵容可能会发生很大的变化，这也就解释了为什么他们在 ESPN BET 的胜场总数最低（19.5 场）。在那之前，篮网队可能会比预期的更有竞争力——就像 2022-23 赛季的爵士队一样。
- 多伦多猛龙队
平均胜场数：33.9 场
在一个强弱分明的分区，猛龙队有机会以低于 0.500 胜率的战绩进入附加赛。这一预测略好于猛龙队在斯科蒂·巴恩斯（Scottie Barnes）与 RJ·巴雷特（RJ Barrett）和伊曼纽尔·奎克利（Immanuel Quickley）一起首发的比赛中的 8 胜 14 负的战绩，此前猛龙队在 OG·阿奴诺比（OG Anunoby）的交易中得到了他们，这相当于一个赛季 30 场的胜率。
- 亚特兰大老鹰队
平均胜场数：31.9 场
在东部，除了前八名之外，没有哪支球队比老鹰队更有动力进入附加赛了，因为他们欠马刺队一个不受保护的 2025 年首轮选秀权。这种愿望必须与亚特兰大培养年轻球员的希望相平衡，最引人注目的是状元秀扎凯里·里萨切（Zaccharie Risacher），他预计将在 19 岁的新秀赛季中苦苦挣扎。
- 芝加哥公牛队
平均胜场数：31.8 场
尽管芝加哥队一直拒绝为了追求选秀权而彻底推倒重建，但交易亚历克斯·卡鲁索（Alex Caruso）和德玛尔·德罗赞（DeMar DeRozan）（后者是通过先签后换的方式进行的）足以将他们的预测推到高顺位乐透区。由于他们欠圣安东尼奥一个前十顺位保护的选秀权，公牛队将有很大的动力以倒数六名的成绩结束本赛季，以避免在选秀抽签中失去这个选秀权。
- 夏洛特黄蜂队
平均胜场数：29.4 场
在上赛季因伤病困扰而以 21 胜 61 负的战绩结束后，对于黄蜂队来说，接近 30 场的胜利将是一大进步。尽管拉梅洛·鲍尔（LaMelo Ball）和马克·威廉姆斯（Mark Williams）的身体状况有所好转，但这支年轻的球队——预计赛季结束时的平均年龄为 25.1 岁，在 NBA 中排名第三——并没有为争夺附加赛席位做好准备。
- 底特律活塞队
平均胜场数：28.8 场
在本赛季休赛期增加了马利克·比斯利（Malik Beasley）、托拜厄斯·哈里斯（Tobias Harris）和蒂姆·哈达威 Jr.（Tim Hardaway Jr.）等老将后，活塞队应该会更进一步。自从上一次在 2018-19 赛季打进季后赛以来，活塞队还没有赢过 25 场比赛，在新教练 J.B. 比克斯塔夫（J.B. Bickerstaff）的带领下，这是一个合理的赛季目标。
- 华盛顿奇才队
平均胜场数：24.1 场
在赢得了 15 场比赛并交易走了他们最强悍的老将之一、3D 侧翼德尼·阿夫迪亚（Deni Avdija）之后，奇才队拥有联盟中最低的预测胜场数。考虑到交易老将马尔科姆·布罗格登（Malcolm Brogdon）和凯尔·库兹马（Kyle Kuzma）并将上场时间重新分配给年轻球员的可能性，这仍然可能高估了华盛顿最终的胜场数。
西部联盟
- 俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
平均胜场数：53.7 场
在一年前的预测中，雷霆队的胜场数超出预测多达 18 场，而现在，他们的平均胜场数在联盟所有球队中排名第一。雷霆队拥有一支阵容深度、年轻的球队，并在休赛期增加了亚历克斯·卡鲁索和以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因（Isaiah Hartenstein），他们是唯一一支在进攻和防守效率方面都排名前五的球队。
- 孟菲斯灰熊队
平均胜场数：51.1 场
尽管贾·莫兰特（Ja Morant）被禁赛 25 场，但灰熊队是上赛季预测中最令人意外的球队之一，一开始他们的平均胜场数在西部排名第一。（史蒂文·亚当斯（Steven Adams）赛季报销的膝伤是在我发布预测后才宣布的，这使得他们的排名跌至明尼苏达之后，位居第二。）
相反，孟菲斯队遭遇了历史性的伤病潮，最终进入了乐透区。这一次，在用大学球星扎克·埃迪（Zach Edey）填补了亚当斯交易后留下的中锋空缺后，他们再次接近西部榜首。带领孟菲斯队在前两个赛季都取得 50 多场胜利的核心阵容依然完整，而去年帮助灰熊队培养了年轻球员的阵容深度。
- 达拉斯独行侠队
平均胜场数：49.7 场
独行侠队在全明星赛后以 55 场比赛的胜率赢球，并随后打进了 NBA 总决赛，因此达拉斯的期望可能会更高。值得注意的是，独行侠队在最后阶段的健康状况异常良好，凯里·欧文（Kyrie Irving）从 2 月 5 日开始到达拉斯锁定西部第五的席位，期间他参加了每一场比赛。与上赛季 50 场的胜场数相似的成绩是合理的，而独行侠队在 ESPN BET 的 49.5 场胜场数也与此几乎一致。
- 萨克拉门托国王队
平均胜场数：49.4 场
在过去两个赛季平均赢得 47 场比赛后，国王队在用哈里森·巴恩斯（Harrison Barnes）换来德罗赞的先签后换交易后，拥有了他们有史以来最有天赋的阵容。问题是，考虑到德罗赞、达龙·福克斯（De’Aaron Fox）和第六人马利克·蒙克（Malik Monk）一样，最适合持球进攻，这些球员在球场上的配合是否会那么好。我仍然怀疑国王队最终能否在西部排名如此之高。
- 丹佛掘金队
平均胜场数：47.4 场
根据正负值数据，卡德维尔-波普（Caldwell-Pope）理应在丹佛的防守中获得相当多的赞誉，这支球队在上赛季的防守效率排名第八，而在 2022-23 赛季排名第 15 位。因此，尽管掘金队预计仍将是 NBA 进攻效率第三高的球队，但他们的防守效率却低于平均水平。
此外，与他们的净胜分相比，丹佛可能很难再次取得超出预期的成绩。2022-23 赛季，掘金队的胜场数比根据他们的净胜分预测的多了 3.4 场，而上赛季多了 2.7 场——从历史上看，关键时刻的统治力往往难以维持。
- 菲尼克斯太阳队
平均胜场数：45.4 场
这支老将为主的太阳队是另一支可能因为年龄原因而退步的球队。上赛季，太阳队的加权平均年龄为 29.9 岁，是联盟中第三老的球队。伤病往往伴随着年龄的增长，虽然布拉德利·比尔（Bradley Beal）只打了 53 场比赛，但凯文·杜兰特（Kevin Durant）（75 岁）的出场次数比自 2019 年跟腱断裂以来的任何一个赛季都多了 20 场。
- 金州勇士队
平均胜场数：44.8 场
对于勇士队来说，相对排名比绝对胜场数更重要。勇士队上赛季的 46 场胜利只比太阳队少了 3 场，后者完全避开了附加赛。而勇士队在附加赛中一轮游，因为他们必须在萨克拉门托客场作战。勇士队在净胜分方面仍然更胜一筹，在西部排名第七——领先于最终打进总决赛的独行侠队。
- 明尼苏达森林狼队
平均胜场数：42.7 场
尽管周五的交易略微提高了他们的预测，但在鲁迪·戈贝尔（Rudy Gobert）为球队效力的第一个赛季，森林狼队在 2021-22 赛季取得了 42 胜 40 负的战绩，而一年后，他们的战绩跃居西部第二，取得了 56 场胜利，他们的平均胜率勉强超过 0.500，这仍然是最令人惊讶的结果。
增加迪温琴佐和兰德尔有助于解决明尼苏达令人担忧的阵容深度问题，但代价是牺牲了顶级球员。唐斯的预测比森林狼队得到的两名球员都要好。
- 新奥尔良鹈鹕队
平均胜场数：41.6 场
鹈鹕队的阵容有很多值得称道的地方，他们在休赛期交易得到德章泰·穆雷（Dejounte Murray）后，外线球员储备充足。问题在于中锋位置，虽然我已经预测锡安·威廉姆森（Zion Williamson）会在那里打很多时间，但鹈鹕队的其他选择——老将丹尼尔·泰斯（Daniel Theis）、身材矮小的杰里迈亚·罗宾逊-厄尔（Jeremiah Robinson-Earl）、双向合同球员特雷·杰迈森（Trey Jemison）以及新秀卡洛·马图科维奇（Karlo Matkovic）和伊夫·米西（Yves Missi）——都缺乏竞争力。因此，预计新奥尔良的胜场数将从上赛季的 49 场有所下降，但需要注意的是，他们也很容易在本赛季中期升级阵容。
- 洛杉矶湖人队
平均胜场数：40.7 场
这一预测反映了湖人队成为我最有可能在本赛季胜场数下降的球队之一的原因，而他们上赛季的战绩是 47 胜。湖人队在净胜分方面排名西部第 11 位（+0.6），这通常意味着他们能赢下 42 或 43 场比赛。再加上老将安东尼·戴维斯（Anthony Davis）和勒布朗·詹姆斯（LeBron James）很难复制上赛季的出场次数，湖人队可能要为进入附加赛而战。
- 休斯顿火箭队
平均胜场数：40.4 场
与魔术队一样，休斯顿的预测也受到了球队年轻球员多年来数据的拖累，他们在 2023-24 赛季火箭队达到 0.500 胜率的过程中迅速成长。休斯顿在本赛季竞争激烈的西部排名如何，应该不会对这支球队光明的未来产生太大影响。
- 洛杉矶快船队
平均胜场数：36.3 场
快船队主教练泰伦·卢（Ty Lue）上个月告诉 ESPN 的 Ohm Youngmisuk，他“迫不及待地想证明每个人都错了”。好吧，每个人都包括这些预测，这些预测认为快船队在失去乔治后很难保住附加赛席位。
正如我在关于最有可能衰落的球队的文章中指出的那样，即使在用角色球员尼古拉斯·巴图姆（Nicolas Batum）和德里克·琼斯 Jr.（Derrick Jones Jr.）取代乔治之前，快船队的年龄和健康状况就令人担忧。球员们将被迫创造更多自己的进攻机会，因为快船队的预期轮换阵容的预测使用率比联盟平均水平低 14%。没有其他球队的这一数据比平均水平低 6% 以上。
- 圣安东尼奥马刺队
平均胜场数：33.5 场
尽管维克托·文班亚马（Victor Wembanyama）的个人预测很强劲，但马刺队的预测胜场数仍低于 36.5 场的胜负场总数。圣安东尼奥最终的战绩将在很大程度上取决于主教练格雷格·波波维奇（Gregg Popovich）在多大程度上优先考虑培养 4 号秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔（Stephon Castle）以及最近几年的首轮秀马拉基·布拉汉姆（Malaki Braham）、杰里米·索汉（Jeremy Sochan）和布雷克·韦斯利（Blake Wesley），而不是让那些现在能提供更多帮助但不太可能成为马刺队光明未来一部分的老将上场。
- 波特兰开拓者队
平均胜场数：32.8 场
在上赛季输掉 61 场比赛后，开拓者队为他们的阵容增加了一名老将阿夫迪亚，但总共有 15 名球员回归。乐透秀多诺万·米切尔（Donovan Clingan）是唯一一位拿着 NBA 正式合同的新人。在上赛季没有球员为球队出场超过 72 场的情况下，更健康的阵容可能会帮助波特兰更具竞争力。然而，开拓者队可能并不介意在一个选秀大年积累乐透签。
- 犹他爵士队
平均胜场数：29.2 场
在过去两个赛季的交易截止日期前都转向了年轻球员，爵士队阵中已经没有多少老将能够帮助他们在上半赛季保持竞争力了。尽管劳里·马尔卡宁（Lauri Markkanen）续约了，但由于后场核心球员都是年轻球员，包括最近几年的首轮秀斯科蒂·亨德森（Scoot Henderson）、基翁泰·乔治（Keyonte George）和科迪·威廉姆斯（Cody Williams），爵士队的预测胜场数在西部排名垫底。
点击查看原文：Win projections for all 30 NBA teams ahead of the 2024-25 season
Win projections for all 30 NBA teams ahead of the 2024-25 season
Editor’s note: This article, originally published on Sept. 25, has been updated to reflect Friday’s reported trade between the New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
NBA training camp starts on Tuesday, and as teams prepare for preseason, it’s time to make projections for how all 30 will perform this upcoming season.
My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.
After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons. This adjustment, and other smaller ones, produced better out-of-sample results in testing.
One key change is the wins projections are no longer so compressed toward .500. As we are looking at mean wins, they still tend toward average because of the possibility that teams could dramatically under or over perform based on injuries and breakout seasons, but four teams are projected to win at least 50 games on average after only the eventual champion Boston Celtics were last season.
Let’s take a look at who joins the Celtics at the top, which Western Conference finalist might fall down the standings and the rest of the projections.
Jump to:\
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE\
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND\
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN\
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX\
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Eastern Conference
**1. Boston Celtics\
Average wins: 52.4**
After winning 64 games en route to the franchise’s first title since 2008, the Celtics might not be as motivated in the 2024-25 regular season. Just four of the 12 teams that have won at a 60-game pace in the past decade repeated the feat the following season. The only team in that span to repeat coming off a championship was the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors.
Add in the ankle surgery expected to sideline starting center Kristaps Porzingis until December and it’s reasonable to expect fewer wins from Boston despite bringing back last season’s entire rotation.
**2. Cleveland Cavaliers\
Average wins: 50.6**
The Cavaliers’ decision to prioritize continuity is rewarded in the projections, which have them near their 2022-23 total of 51 wins on average. One key caveat: Roster fit is among the most important factors not captured in these projections, and how well Cleveland’s stars complement one another is a major storyline that will carry into this season.
**3. Milwaukee Bucks\
Average wins: 46.7**
As I noted in my piece on the most likely teams to improve and decline, age is naturally a key predictor. Milwaukee had the league’s second-oldest roster last season when weighted by minutes played, younger than only the LA Clippers. Based on that factor, it’s no surprise Milwaukee comes in slightly below last year’s total of 49 wins.
**4. Indiana Pacers\
Average wins: 46.7**
Coming off a run to the Eastern Conference finals and with Pascal Siakam for a full season, the Pacers are hoping to improve on last season’s 47 wins. Health is a reason to temper expectations. Star guard Tyrese Haliburton was limited by a hamstring injury last season, but Indiana lost the second-fewest games (111) to injury or non-COVID illness, according to my database.
5. New York Knicks Average wins: 45.4
The Knicks jumped the Philadelphia 76ers up to fifth with Friday’s reported trade for Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s an enormous upgrade on New York’s thin depth chart at center. Losing both Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle leaves the Knicks weaker on the perimeter, which could be an issue if they experience a long-term injury there. However, Miles McBride rates as a capable sixth man and New York could enjoy even more benefit from strengthening their starting five come playoff time.
**6. Philadelphia 76ers\
Average wins: 45.2**
After adding Paul George in free agency, the Sixers’ projection feels low (and further slipped a spot after New York’s reported trade for Towns). It’s worth remembering that for as well as Philadelphia did filling out its roster in free agency, having six players on minimum contracts is not typically a recipe for depth. The 76ers also have the chance to upgrade on this roster midseason using Kenyon Martin Jr. as a matching salary along with several tradable first-round picks.
**7. Miami Heat\
Average wins: 44.9**
This projection comes in right between the 44 and 46 games the Heat have won the past two seasons. Those campaigns were followed by very different playoff runs: a trip to the NBA Finals in 2023 followed by last year’s five-game loss to Boston in the first round. For Miami, getting to the postseason healthy has been more important than accumulating regular-season wins.
**8. Orlando Magic\
Average wins: 43.5**
The Magic won 47 games a year ago with one of the NBA’s youngest rosters and then added veteran Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency, giving them an over/under win total of 48.5 according to ESPN BET. My projections have them instead slipping toward .500 in large part because of the multiyear sample for player stats. Orlando has improved so much so quickly – from 22 wins in 2021-22 with a relatively similar roster to 34 in 2022-23 before last season’s jump – that past performance is still holding the Magic’s projection back. We’ll see if the Magic can beat the plexiglass principle two years in a row.
**9. Brooklyn Nets\
Average wins: 36.9**
When the Nets traded Mikal Bridges to the crosstown rival Knicks, it felt like the first in a series of moves to tear down the roster in pursuit of lottery picks. Brooklyn instead stood pat the rest of the summer, meaning there’s still plenty of NBA talent on the roster – for now. The Nets could look very different by the trade deadline, explaining why they’ve got the lowest wins total at ESPN BET (19.5 games). Until then, Brooklyn might be a bit more competitive than expected – along the lines of the 2022-23 Jazz.
**10. Toronto Raptors\
Average wins: 33.9**
In a bottom-heavy conference, the Raptors have a chance to reach the play-in with a below-.500 record. This projection is slightly better than Toronto’s 8-14 record in games Scottie Barnes started alongside RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley after the Raptors acquired them in the OG Anunoby trade, which was a 30-win pace over a full season.
**11. Atlanta Hawks\
Average wins: 31.9**
No East team outside of the top eight will have more motivation to reach the play-in than the Hawks, who owe the Spurs their unprotected 2025 first-round pick. That desire will have to be balanced against Atlanta’s hope of developing young talent, most notably first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, who projects to struggle as a 19-year-old rookie.
**12. Chicago Bulls\
Average wins: 31.8**
Although Chicago has resisted fully tearing down the roster in the pursuit of draft picks, trading Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan (the latter via sign-and-trade) is enough to push their projection into high lottery territory. Because they owe a pick to San Antonio that is top-10 protected, the Bulls will be heavily incentivized to finish with a bottom-six record and avoid having to sweat out keeping it via the draft lottery.
**13. Charlotte Hornets\
Average wins: 29.4**
After an injury-marred 21-61 finish last season, threatening 30 wins would qualify as progress for the Hornets. Despite better health from LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams, this young roster – average projected age at season’s end of 25.1 years, third-lowest in the NBA – isn’t built to compete for a play-in spot.
**14. Detroit Pistons\
Average wins: 28.8**
Detroit should take a step forward after adding veterans Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. this offseason. The Pistons haven’t won 25 games since they last reached the playoffs in 2018-19, and that’s a reasonable goal under new coach J.B. Bickerstaff.
**15. Washington Wizards\
Average wins: 24.1**
After winning 15 games and trading away one of their strongest veterans, 3-and-D wing Deni Avdija, the Wizards have the league’s lowest projection. That still might overstate Washington’s eventual win total given the possibility of trading veterans Malcolm Brogdon and Kyle Kuzma and redistributing those minutes to younger players.
Western Conference
**1. Oklahoma City Thunder\
Average wins: 53.7**
A year after surpassing their projection by an incredible 18 wins, Oklahoma City now boasts the highest average wins for any team in the league. With a deep, young roster augmented by the offseason additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder are the only team to project in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating.
**2. Memphis Grizzlies\
Average wins: 51.1**
Despite Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension, the Grizzlies were one of the biggest projection outliers last season, beginning with the West’s best average wins total. (Steven Adams’ season-ending knee injury, announced after I published projections, pushed them to second behind Minnesota.)
Memphis instead dealt with a historic amount of injuries en route to the lottery. This time around, after drafting college standout Zach Edey to fill the hole at center left by the Adams trade, it is near the top of the West again. The core that led Memphis to 50-plus wins the two previous seasons is still intact, and last year helped the Grizzlies develop young depth.
**3. Dallas Mavericks\
Average wins: 49.7**
The Mavericks won at a 55-game pace after the All-Star break and subsequently reached the NBA Finals, so expectations might be higher in Dallas. It’s worth noting that the Mavericks were unusually healthy down the stretch, with Kyrie Irving playing every game from Feb. 5 through Dallas locking up the fifth seed. Something similar to last year’s 50-win finish is reasonable, and the Mavericks’ 49.5-win total at ESPN BET is nearly identical to this mark.
**4. Sacramento Kings\
Average wins: 49.4**
After averaging 47 wins over the past two seasons, the Kings have their most talented roster yet after moving Harrison Barnes for DeRozan in a sign-and-trade. The question is whether these players will fit as well on the court given DeRozan, like De’Aaron Fox and sixth man Malik Monk, is best with the ball in his hands. I remain skeptical the Kings will finish quite this high in the West.
**5. Denver Nuggets\
Average wins: 47.4**
Based on plus-minus data, Caldwell-Pope deserved a considerable amount of the credit for a Denver defense that ranked eighth in defensive rating last season after finishing 15th in 2022-23. So although the Nuggets are still projected as the NBA’s third-best offense, their defense rating is worse than average.
Additionally, Denver could be hard-pressed to overachieve again compared to its point differential. The Nuggets won 3.4 more games than expected based on their differential in 2022-23 and 2.7 more last season – clutch domination historically tends to be hard to maintain.
**6. Phoenix Suns\
Average wins: 45.4**
The veteran Suns are another team that could take a step back due to age. With a weighted age of 29.9 at season’s end, Phoenix was the league’s third-oldest team last season. Injuries tend to come with age, and while Bradley Beal played just 53 games, Kevin Durant (75) played 20 games more than any other season since suffering an Achilles rupture in 2019.
**7. Golden State Warriors\
Average wins: 44.8**
Relative positioning will be more important than absolute wins for the Warriors. Golden State’s 46 wins last season were just three shy of the Suns, who avoided the play-in entirely. The Warriors, instead, were one-and-done in the play-in after having to open on the road at Sacramento. Golden State was still stronger in terms of point differential, finishing seventh in the West – ahead of the Finals-bound Mavericks.
**8. Minnesota Timberwolves\
Average wins: 42.7**
Although the Friday’s trade slightly bumped up their projection, the Timberwolves rating barely better than .500 on average a year after finishing second in the West with 56 wins – albeit also two years after going 42-40 in Rudy Gobert’s first season with the team – remains the most surprising result.
Adding both DiVincenzo and Randle helps Minnesota’s questionable depth, but at the cost of top-end talent. Towns projects better than either of the two players the Timberwolves got in return.
**9. New Orleans Pelicans\
Average wins: 41.6**
There’s a lot to like about the Pelicans’ roster, which is deep on perimeter players after their offseason trade for Dejounte Murray. The issue is at center, and while I’ve projected plenty of minutes there for Zion Williamson, the Pelicans’ other options – journeyman Daniel Theis, undersized Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, two-way contributor Trey Jemison and rookies Karlo Matkovic and Yves Missi – are lacking. As a result, New Orleans is predicted for a downturn from last season’s 49 wins, albeit with the caveat that they too could easily upgrade midseason.
**10. Los Angeles Lakers\
Average wins: 40.7**
This projection reflects the same factors that made the Lakers one of my most likely teams to decline in terms of wins from last season’s 47. The Lakers finished 11th in the West in point differential (plus-0.6), which would typically translate into 42 or 43 wins. Add in the difficulty of veterans Anthony Davis and LeBron James matching last season’s games played and the Lakers could be fighting just to make the play-in.
**11. Houston Rockets\
Average wins: 40.4**
Like the Magic, Houston’s projection is held back by multiyear stats for the team’s young prospects, who developed quickly during the 2023-24 season as the Rockets reached .500. Where Houston finishes in the crowded West standings this season shouldn’t have much impact on the franchise’s bright outlook for the future.
**12. LA Clippers\
Average wins: 36.3**
Clippers coach Ty Lue told ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk last month he “can’t wait to prove everybody wrong.” Well, everybody includes these projections, which have the Clippers hard-pressed to stay in the play-in race after losing George.
As noted in my piece on teams most likely to decline, the Clippers’ age and health were concerns even before replacing George with role players Nicolas Batum and Derrick Jones Jr. Players will be forced to create more of their own offense, as the Clippers’ expected rotation had a projected usage rate 14% lower than league average. No other team was more than 6% below average.
**13. San Antonio Spurs\
Average wins: 33.5**
Despite a strong individual projection for Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs’ forecast falls short of their 36.5 over/under total. San Antonio’s final record will depend in large part on how much coach Gregg Popovich prioritizes developing No. 4 pick Stephon Castle, and recent first-rounders Malaki Braham, Jeremy Sochan and Blake Wesley, as opposed to playing veterans who can help more now but are less likely to be part of the Spurs’ promising future.
**14. Portland Trail Blazers\
Average wins: 32.8**
After losing 61 games last season, the Blazers added veteran help to their roster in Avdija but return 15 incumbent players overall. Lottery pick Donovan Clingan is the only other newcomer on a full NBA contract. Better health could help Portland be more competitive after no player played more than 72 games for the team last season. The Blazers might not mind accumulating lottery odds in a strong draft, however.
**15. Utah Jazz\
Average wins: 29.2**
Having pivoted to young talent after the trade deadline each of the past two seasons, the Jazz have fewer veterans left on the roster to help keep them competitive over the first half of the season. Even with an extension for Lauri Markkanen, Utah has the West’s lowest projection because of a youthful core of guards featuring recent first-round picks Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George and Cody Williams.
By Kevin Pelton, via ESPN