By Marilyn Dubinski | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-09-25 00:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
未来几年，某些数据王的归属可能不会改变，而另一些数据王则可能被新面孔夺走。
马刺队的训练营即将开始，这意味着，如果还没开始的话，你现在可以正式将 2024-25 赛季称为“本赛季”了，而 2023-24 赛季则成为了“上赛季”。展望未来，我们有很多值得期待的事情，比如维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)在第二个赛季将如何给我们带来更多惊喜，以及克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)、哈里森·巴恩斯(Harrison Barnes)和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)等新援将为马刺队带来什么，因为马刺队希望再次提升排名。
因此，我认为，猜测一下下赛季哪些球员将领跑马刺队的主要数据统计类别，应该会很有趣。有些数据王的归属可能很明显，只要文班还在，就可能永远不会改变，但其他数据类别则有可能出现新的领跑者，所以让我们来看看吧。
得分王：维克托·文班亚马
2023-24 赛季得分王： 维克托·文班亚马（21.4 分）
在接下来的 15 年里，你可能会一直认为文班是马刺队的得分王，这一点毫无疑问。尽管马刺队有时无法给他传球，而且他在赛季初远离篮筐，没有控球后卫的情况下打球，并且是一个不稳定的、但可能过于依赖外线投篮的球员，但他在他的新秀赛季里还是相当轻松地超过了场均 20 分的门槛。更不用说，在全明星赛之后，随着马刺队状态的提升和开始在一个更成熟的体系中打球，他场均可以得到 23.5 分。
现在他已经度过了新秀的适应期，从大前锋移到了中锋位置，并且身边有了更多帮手，预计他的第二个赛季会更好。在保罗的带领下，他会接到更多上赛季马刺队传球手们有时臭名昭著地漏掉的空中接力传球，单凭这一点，他的场均得分就应该至少能提高 2 分，甚至更多。再加上他在上赛季末和奥运会上都展现出了外线投篮能力提升的迹象，我们没有理由不相信马刺队的得分王不会越来越好。
篮板王：维克托·文班亚马
2023-24 赛季篮板王： 维克托·文班亚马（10.6 个）
再说一遍，除了他还会有谁呢？文班身高 7 英尺 4 英寸（或者现在是多少了），臂展达到 8 英尺，这已经让他占据了优势，而且他现在作为中锋几乎总是靠近篮筐，而不是大前锋，所以对手（以及马刺队自己）的很多投篮不中都会被他抢到。事实上，他上赛季没有抢到更多篮板球，这有点令人惊讶，但这主要是因为他在赛季初是大前锋，而且那些该死的出场时间限制。全明星赛后，他场均抢下 12 个篮板，所以预计本赛季的数据将接近这个数字，甚至更高。
助攻王：克里斯·保罗
2023-24 赛季助攻王： 特雷·琼斯(Tre Jones)（6.2 次）
现在我们来看看一个潜在的新数据王。除了首发控球后卫以外，很少有人能领跑球队的场均助攻数，而马刺队刚刚引进了有史以来最纯粹的传球手之一——保罗。如果没有其他原因的话，仅仅因为他预计会首发，而且他可能会有一个史上最轻松的目标——文班，预计保罗将在这个数据类别中占据主导地位，即使只是一个赛季。
我能看到的唯一一种不会发生这种情况的情况是，保罗的出场时间比琼斯少得多，或者最终将首发位置让给了琼斯，而这两种情况似乎都不太可能发生，除非保罗被交易。此外，作为参考，上赛季是他职业生涯中第一次出场时间低于 30 分钟，而且那还是在勇士队主要替补出场的情况下。虽然格雷格·波波维奇(Gregg Popovich)在给保罗出场时间的同时，还要让年轻球员得到内部成长，这方面需要一些权衡，但助攻王仍然是他的囊中之物。
盖帽王：维克托·文班亚马
2023-24 赛季盖帽王： 维克托·文班亚马（3.6 次）
我们又回到了另一个只要文班还在篮球场上，就可能永远不会失去的数据类别：盖帽。同样，尽管上赛季的数据已经令人印象深刻，但在全明星赛后，他的数据更是惊人地达到了场均 4.5 次盖帽。预计这个数字还会进一步上升，这可能并非奢望——我们可能会看到更多像这样的比赛，对手甚至不去挑战他，或者让他获得满足感——但无论如何，他不仅将在未来几年内成为马刺队的盖帽王，而且很可能成为联盟的盖帽王。
抢断王：特雷·琼斯
2023-24 赛季抢断王： 维克托·文班亚马（1.2 次）
这可能有点争议，因为文班在全明星赛后的抢断数据跃升至 1.5 次，他很可能再次领跑这一数据类别，但我还是大胆地把机会给了其他人。德文·瓦塞尔(Devin Vassell)和琼斯上赛季分别以场均 1.1 次和 1 次抢断紧随其后，而保罗上赛季场均 1.2 次抢断——这是他的职业生涯最低值。
这三个人都有机会在球传到文班手里之前抢断，但在这种情况下，我决定把机会给琼斯，他应该仍然会在老将保罗身后获得大量的出场时间（保罗也可能会有一些轮休的比赛），而且他还将面对更多替补控球后卫，他们可能不像首发球员那样安全地控制球。如果我要在这个数据上押注，我可能仍然会选择文班，也许我只是想用这个选择给琼斯一些肯定，但我相信他那讨厌的、蛇形的防守和永不放弃的努力。
三分球命中率：哈里森·巴恩斯
2023-24 赛季三分球命中率： 道格·麦克德莫特(Doug McDermott)（43.9%）
马刺队两名三分球命中率最高的球员——麦克德莫特和赛迪·奥斯曼(Cedi Osman)（38.9%）——都已经离开了球队，这意味着马刺队将不得不依靠内部球员的成长和/或新援来提升他们的三分球命中率。德文·瓦塞尔（37.2%）和朱利安·尚帕尼(Julian Champagnie)（36.5%）是上赛季仅有的两名三分球命中率超过 35% 的回归球员，本赛季，随着更好的空间和球权分配，他们的数据很容易就会上升。
还有其他可能进步的球员，比如文班亚马、杰里米·索汉(Jeremy Sochan)、琼斯和凯尔登·约翰逊(Keldon Johnson)，但最终，我认为马刺队的三分球命中率最高的球员将是一个已经在漫长的职业生涯中证明了自己在这方面能力的人：哈里森·巴恩斯。巴恩斯职业生涯的三分球命中率为 38%，自 2017-18 赛季以来，他的命中率从未低于过这个数字，我们没有理由相信现在会有所改变。假设他首发，他将与保罗、瓦塞尔和文班亚马有很多同时在场的机会，他们都会吸引更多的防守注意力，并给他空位投篮的机会，这使得他成为领跑这一数据类别的最佳人选。
你怎么看，马刺球迷们？谁将是本赛季马刺队的统计数据领跑者，为什么？欢迎在下面的评论区讨论！
点击查看原文：Predicting the Spurs’ statistical leaders for the 2024-25 season
Predicting the Spurs’ statistical leaders for the 2024-25 season
A few categories may have the same leader for years to come, but some others may be taken over by new faces.
Spurs training camp is just around the corner, which means if you aren’t already, you can officially start calling the 2024-25 NBA season “this season”, while 2023-24 is the last. There is plenty to be excited about looking forward, ranging from how Victor Wembanyama will manage to wow us even more in year 2 to what new additions Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes and Stephon Castle will bring to the table as the Spurs look to start moving up the standings once again.
As a result, I thought it would be fun to take a guess at which players will lead the Spurs in major statistical categories next season. A few may be obvious and will likely never change as long as Wemby is around, but there is room for new leaders in other categories, so let’s take a look.
Points: Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 leader: Victor Wembanyama (21.4)
This one is one of those stats that you probably chalk Wemby up as Spurs’ leader for the next 15 years. He pretty comfortably exceeded the 20 ppg threshold in his rookie season despite the Spurs’ well-documented inability to get him the ball at times, starting the season away from the basket, playing without a point guard, and being an inconsistent-yet-possibly-too-willing outside shooter. Not to mention, he averaged 23.5 points after the All-Star game as the Spurs improved and started playing in a more established system.
Now that he has gotten through the rookie growing pains, moved to center and has more help around him, expect his second season to be even better. With Paul leading the show, he will receive more of those lobs that the Spurs’ passers sometimes infamously missed last season, and that alone should be good for at least two more points per game, if not more. Add to the fact that he showed signs as an improved outside shooter late last season and in the Olympics, and there’s zero reason to believe the Spurs’ leading scorer won’t just keep getting better.
Rebounds: Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 leader: Victor Wembanyama (10.6)
Again, who else? Not only does Wemby already have the advantage of being 7’4” (or whatever he is by now) with an 8-foot wingspan, but he will now almost always be close to the basket as a center instead of power forward, so many misses by the opponent (and several on the Spurs’ end) will be his for the taking. It’s actually kind of surprising that he didn’t grab more rebounds last season, but that can mostly be chalked up to starting the season at power forward and those cursed minutes restrictions. Post-All Star break, he averaged 12 rebounds per game, so expect this season’s numbers to be closer to that, if not greater.
Assists: Chris Paul
2023-24 leader: Tre Jones (6.2)
Now we get to a potential new leader. It’s pretty rare that anyone other than the starting point guard leads a team in assists per game, and the Spurs just added one of the best pure passers of all time in Paul. If for no other reason than he is expected to start and will probably have his easiest target of all time in Wemby to aim for, expect Paul to take the reins in this category, even if it’s just for one season.
The only way I can see that not happening is if Paul plays significantly fewer minutes than Jones or eventually cedes the stating spot to him, and both seem unlikely unless Paul is traded. Also, for reference, last season was the first time he played less than 30 mpg in his entire career, and that was while mostly coming off the bench for the Warriors. While there will be a bit of a balancing act for Gregg Popovich when it comes to giving Paul his minutes while allowing for internal growth for younger players, assists is still his category to lose.
Blocks: Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 leader: Victor Wembanyama (3.6)
And we’re back to yet another category Wemby will likely never lose as long as he’s on a basketball court: blocks. Again, as impressive as that number was last season, it was even better after the All-Star break at a whopping 4.5 blocks per game. It may or may not be a stretch to expect that number rise even more — we might see more plays like this where players don’t even try to challenge him or give him the satisfaction — but regardless, not only will he be the Spurs leader in blocks for years to come, but likely even the league’s.
Steals: Tre Jones
2023-24 leader: Victor Wembanyama (1.2)
This may be a little controversial because again, Wemby’s numbers jumped to 1.5 steals after the All-Star break and he very well may lead in that category again, but I’m going to go out on a limb and give someone else a chance. Devin Vassell and Jones were right behind him last season with 1.1 and 1 steal per game, respectively, and Paul averaged 1.2 steals last season — which was a career low for him.
All three of those guys have a chance get to their hands on the ball before it gets down low to Wemby, but in this case I’ve decided to give the benefit to Jones, who should still get plenty of minutes behind the older Paul (who may also have some rest games) and will have the added advantage of going against more backup point guards who may not be as secure with the ball compared to starters. If I had to place money on this stat, I’d probably still give it to Wemby, and maybe I just wanted to give Jones some credit with this pick, but I also believe in his pesky, head-of-the-snake defense and endless effort.
Three-point shooting: Harrison Barnes
2023-24 leader: Doug McDermott (43.9%)
The Spurs’ two leading shooters from outside the arc — McDermott and Cedi Osman (38.9%) — are both no longer with the team, so that means the Spurs will have to rely on internal growth and/or their newest additions to boost their three-point shooting numbers. Devin Vassell (37.2%) and Julian Champagnie (36.5%) are the only returning Spurs who shot more than 35% from three last season, and both could easily see their numbers rise with better spacing and ball distribution this season.
There are other candidates for improvement, such as Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan, Jones and Keldon Johnson, but ultimately I believe the Spurs’ leading three-point shooter will be someone who has already proven himself from that part of the court across a long career: Harrison Barnes. A career 38% shooter from the arc, Barnes hasn’t shot below that mark since the 2017-18 season, and there’s little reason to believe that will change now. Assuming he starts, he will be sharing the floor a lot with least Paul, Vassell and Wemby, who will all draw more defensive attention and give him his open opportunities, making him an easy decision to lead this category.
What do you think, Pounders? Who will be the Spurs statistical leaders this season and why? Feel free to discuss in the comments below!
By Marilyn Dubinski, via Pounding The Rock