By Kevin Pelton, 2024-09-23 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
展望 NBA 积分榜之外，可以帮助我们了解哪些球队在下个赛季更有可能排名上升或下滑。
在 NFL，ESPN 的比尔·巴恩维尔（Bill Barnwell）每年都会根据统计数据预测五支最有可能进步或衰退的球队，这已经成为一种惯例。我之前一直认为，在 NBA 做出这样的预测并不容易，去年的首期专栏文章就证明了这一点——在预测的七支球队中（四支进步，三支衰退），有三支都没有预测准确。
之所以难以预测，部分原因在于球员的个人能力在 NBA 中更为重要。尽管上赛季有几个统计因素表明多伦多猛龙队会进步，但事实证明，没有任何因素比弗雷德·范弗利特（Fred VanVleet）在自由球员市场上的离开更重要。多伦多在赛季中期交易走奥杰·阿奴诺比（OG Anunoby）和帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆（Pascal Siakam）之前，战绩仅为 12 胜 19 负，最终猛龙队的胜场数减少了 16 场。
球队目标也很重要。从纸面上看，华盛顿奇才队在上赛季的净胜分预期胜场数比实际胜场数低 4.5 场之后，本赛季应该会有所进步。然而，由于队中有三名首轮新秀，奇才队可能更感兴趣的是培养年轻球员和积累乐透签位，而不是超越上赛季的 15 场胜利。
考虑到这些需要注意的地方，我在去年的三个预测因素（净胜分、健康状况和对手三分球命中率）的基础上，又增加了一个——球队年龄。根据这些指标，以下几支球队将在 2024-25 赛季迎来不同的命运。
最有可能进步的球队
底特律活塞队
2023-24 赛季战绩： 14 胜 68 负
ESPN BET 预测胜场数： 25.5
活塞队是去年榜单上唯一一支重复出现的球队，在上赛季凯德·坎宁安（Cade Cunningham）在伤病限制下仅出场 12 场后，本赛季他出战了 62 场比赛，但活塞队的胜场数却低于 2022-23 赛季的 17 场。
尽管活塞队追平了 NBA 历史最长连败纪录（28 连败），但他们的净胜分（-9.1 分）却优于东部联盟的另外两支球队（夏洛特黄蜂队和华盛顿奇才队）。这已经是活塞队连续第二年根据基础得分和失分计算出的预期战绩远远好于实际战绩——2022-23 赛季约多赢四场，上赛季则接近多赢六场。
同样，这应该会转化为进步。自 1999-2000 赛季以来，大约 67% 的实际胜场数比预期胜场数至少少五场的球队在下个赛季都取得了进步。而且活塞队连续两个赛季表现不佳也不会阻止这种情况发生。在那个时间段内，有八支球队连续两次实际胜场数比预期胜场数少四场，其中六支在下个赛季的表现都超过了预期。
孟菲斯灰熊队
2023-24 赛季战绩： 27 胜 55 负
ESPN BET 预测胜场数： 47.5
选择灰熊队感觉就像是在投篮训练中投空位上篮一样稳。灰熊队在 2021-22 赛季和 2022-23 赛季总共赢下了 107 场比赛，而本赛季他们的预测胜场数比上赛季的最终胜场数多了 20 多场。从某种程度上来说，灰熊队上赛季能赢下 27 场比赛已经很幸运了，因为按照他们 -7.0 的净胜分，通常情况下只能赢不到 24 场比赛。
然而，与灰熊队在健康状况方面的可能提升相比，这种担忧就显得微不足道了。上赛季，孟菲斯球员因伤病或非新冠疾病缺席了 561 场比赛，在我的数据库中，这个数字高居榜首，比排名第二的球队多了 154 场。诚然，部分原因是球员的受伤总数一直在上升，在 2022-23 赛季达到顶峰，上赛季略有下降，但自 2009-10 赛季以来，只有一支球队的球员缺阵场次超过了联盟平均水平，比灰熊队还多（比联盟平均水平高 162%）。那支球队就是 2009-10 赛季的金州勇士队，他们在接下来的一个赛季里多赢了 10 场比赛。
由于小杰克逊（GG Jackson II）已经因为右脚骨折修复手术而赛季报销，孟菲斯在健康方面并没有开个好头。尽管如此，我们很难想象会出现像上赛季那样糟糕的情况，当时由于伤病和贾·莫兰特（Ja Morant）的禁赛，灰熊队的三名外线首发球员（莫兰特、德斯蒙德·贝恩（Desmond Bane）和马库斯·斯马特（Marcus Smart））加起来只打了 71 场比赛。
圣安东尼奥马刺队
2023-24 赛季战绩： 22 胜 60 负
ESPN BET 预测胜场数： 36.5
马刺队在常规赛结束时的加权平均年龄为 23.7 岁，是 NBA 中最年轻的球队，他们的前六名出场时间最多的球员中没有一个人的年龄超过 24 岁。你可能会认为这应该会转化为进步，你是对的：自 1999-2000 赛季以来，在加权平均年龄小于 24 岁的 10 支球队中，只有 2020-21 赛季的俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的战绩出现了倒退。
在引进了老将哈里森·巴恩斯（Harrison Barnes）和克里斯·保罗（Chris Paul）之后，圣安东尼奥本赛季的阵容就不会像上赛季那么年轻了。再加上马刺队年轻球员的成长，尤其是状元秀维克托·文班亚马（Victor Wembanyama）即将迎来自己的第二个赛季，难怪他们会被视为争夺附加赛席位的热门球队。
除了圣安东尼奥的年龄之外，他们的净胜分（-6.5 分）也比预期低了三场，最终只比波特兰开拓者队（-9.0 分）和夏洛特黄蜂队（-10.2 分）多赢了一场。因此，马刺队的预测胜场数意味着他们需要比上赛季多赢 11.5 场比赛，而不是 14.5 场。
最有可能衰退的球队
洛杉矶快船队
2023-24 赛季战绩： 51 胜 31 负
ESPN BET 预测胜场数： 40.5
大多数情况下，我尽量避免预测那些命运可能会因为球员流动而发生改变的球队，但我认为快船队之所以会放保罗·乔治（Paul George）离开，部分原因是他们意识到了球队可能会出现衰退。
快船队球员的平均年龄为 31.2 岁，与马刺队正好相反。自 1999-2000 赛季以来，在 19 支平均年龄这么大的球队中，有 15 支在下个赛季都出现了衰退。快船队在 2023-24 赛季的健康状况也异乎寻常地好，只因伤病或非新冠疾病缺席了 151 场比赛，而此前两个赛季的平均缺阵场次为 247.5 场。
考虑到这些因素，如果快船队的所有球员都回归，他们不太可能再次赢得 50 场比赛，这也许让他们更难 justificar 通过与乔治续约来缴纳超级奢侈税。
洛杉矶湖人队
2023-24 赛季战绩： 47 胜 35 负
ESPN BET 预测胜场数： 43.5
湖人队几乎带回了上赛季的全部球员——只有新秀道尔顿·奈特（Dalton Knecht）和布朗尼·詹姆斯（Bronny James）是签署了正式 NBA 合同的新面孔——因此他们可能会成为检验这些预测因素最纯粹的样本。上赛季，湖人队的预期战绩与实际战绩之间的差距最大，达到了 4.5 场，他们在分差在三分或三分以内的比赛中取得了 11 胜 4 负的联盟最佳战绩。其他任何球队的此类比赛胜场数都没有超过 9 场。
正如湖人球迷肯定会指出的那样，他们因伤病或非新冠疾病缺席的比赛场次实际上比 NBA 平均水平多了 28%，但这些缺阵球员大多集中在角色球员身上——值得注意的是，后卫盖比·文森特（Gabe Vincent）只打了 11 场比赛。球星安东尼·戴维斯（Anthony Davis）和勒布朗·詹姆斯（LeBron James）上赛季合计出战了 147 场比赛，而此前两个赛季他们场均只能出战 103.5 场。
在那些实际战绩比预期战绩多出四到五场的球队中，有 61% 的球队在下个赛季都出现了衰退。再加上戴维斯和詹姆斯可能会缺席更多比赛，因此预测他们的胜场数比上赛季少 3.5 场是合理的。
明尼苏达森林狼队
2023-24 赛季战绩： 56 胜 26 负
ESPN BET 预测胜场数： 52.5
健康状况是森林狼队在上赛季距离西部联盟第一仅一步之遥后，本赛季可能会小幅倒退的一个关键原因。
尽管明尼苏达因伤病缺席的比赛场次只有 155 场，并不算多，但其中超过一半都来自二轮秀杰伦·克拉克（Jaylen Clark），他在加州大学洛杉矶分校时遭遇了跟腱断裂，后来才被选中。如果根据球员平均上场时间来衡量球员缺阵场次，森林狼队是 NBA 中仅次于俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的第二健康的球队。（雷霆队的健康状况很好，但他们是继圣安东尼奥之后第二年轻的球队，这抵消了他们在健康状况方面的优势。）
除此之外，明尼苏达在对手三分球命中率方面可能也不像上赛季那么幸运了。上赛季，对手在对阵森林狼队时的三分球命中率仅为 35%，排名 NBA 倒数第七，而在四届最佳防守球员鲁迪·戈贝尔（Rudy Gobert）效力森林狼队的第一个赛季（2022-23 赛季），这一数据为 37%（排名第七）。
在西部，只有俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的预测胜场数高于明尼苏达，因此森林狼队最终的排名应该还会接近西部前列。但是，如果他们的战绩不如上赛季，也不要感到惊讶。
点击查看原文：Predicting six NBA teams to improve or decline in the 2024-25 season
Predicting six NBA teams to improve or decline in the 2024-25 season
Looking beyond the NBA standings can help us understand which teams are likely to move up or tumble down the standings in the following season.
In the NFL, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell has made a tradition of using statistical factors to predict the five best candidates to improve or decline on an annual basis. Underscoring my argument that these predictions aren’t as easy in the NBA, three of the seven teams in last year’s inaugural column – four to improve, three to decline – missed the mark.
Part of the challenge is personnel matters so much more in the NBA. Although several statistical factors pointed toward the Toronto Raptors improving last season, none proved more important than losing Fred VanVleet in free agency. Toronto was off to a 12-19 start before trading first OG Anunoby and then Pascal Siakam midseason, and the Raptors ultimately saw their win total drop by 16 games.
Incentives matter, too. On paper, the Washington Wizards figure to step forward after underperforming their expected win total based on point differential by 4.5 games last season. With three first-round picks on their roster, however, the Wizards are likely more interested in developing young talent and accumulating lottery odds than beating last season’s 15 wins.
With those caveats in mind, I’ve added a fourth predictive factor – team age – to the three (point differential, health and opponent 3-point percentage) I used in last year’s results. Based on those indicators, here are teams heading in different directions in 2024-25.
Most likely to improve
Detroit Pistons
2023-24 record: 14-68\
ESPN BET win total: 25.5
The only repeat team from last year’s list, the Pistons somehow managed to come up short of their 17 wins in 2022-23 while getting 62 games from Cade Cunningham a season after injuries limited him to 12 games.
Despite tying the NBA record with a 28-game losing streak, Detroit finished with a better point differential (minus-9.1 points per game) than two other Eastern Conference rivals (Charlotte and Washington). That’s two years in a row the Pistons have massively underperformed their expected record based on underlying points scored and allowed – around four wins in 2022-23 and nearly six wins last season.
Again, that should translate into improvement. Since the 1999-2000 season, about 67% of teams that finished at least five wins below their expected total improved the following season. And the Pistons underperforming in back-to-back years will not preclude that. Of the eight teams in that span who have been four wins below their expected record twice in a row, six outperformed it the following season.
Memphis Grizzlies
2023-24 record: 27-55\
ESPN BET win total: 47.5
This pick feels like a layup. The Grizzlies won a combined 107 games over the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, and have an over/under total more than 20 wins higher than last season’s finish. On one level, Memphis was lucky to get 27 wins despite a minus-7.0 point differential that would normally translate into fewer than 24 wins.
That concern, however, is dwarfed by the Grizzlies’ likely improvement in terms of health. Memphis players missed 561 games due to injury or non-COVID illness last season, the highest number in my database by a staggering 154 games. Although part of the explanation is that injury totals have been on the rise, peaking in 2022-23 before a slight drop last season, nonetheless only one team dating back to 2009-10 has exceeded the league average by more than the Grizzlies (162% higher). That team, the 2009-10 Golden State Warriors, improved by 10 wins the following season.
With GG Jackson II already sidelined by surgery to repair a broken bone in his right foot, Memphis isn’t off to a great start in terms of health. Still, it’s hard to imagine a situation as severe as last season, when injuries and Ja Morant’s suspension limited the Grizzlies’ three perimeter starters (Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart) to just 71 games combined.
San Antonio Spurs
2023-24 record: 22-60\
ESPN BET win total: 36.5
Without a player older than age 24 among their top six in minutes played, the Spurs were the NBA’s youngest team by the end of the regular season with a 23.7 weighted age. You might think that should translate to improvement, and you’d be right: Of the 10 teams with a weighted age less than 24 since 1999-2000, only the 2020-21 Oklahoma City Thunder saw their record go backward.
Having added veterans Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul, San Antonio won’t be nearly as young this season. Add in the development of the Spurs’ young talent, most notably No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama heading into his second season, and it’s no wonder they’re a trendy pick to battle for a play-in spot.
Beyond San Antonio’s age, the team also underperformed its point differential (-6.5 PPG) by three games, ending with only one win more than Portland (minus-9.0) and Charlotte (minus-10.2). So the Spurs’ over/under total translates into more like 11.5 wins of actual improvement instead of 14.5.
Most likely to decline
LA Clippers
2023-24 record: 51-31\
ESPN BET win total: 40.5
For the most part, I’m trying to avoid teams whose fortunes are likely to change due to roster turnover, but I think it’s worth making the case that the Clippers let Paul George leave in part because they recognized the likelihood for regression.
At an average age of 31.2, the Clippers were at the opposite end of the spectrum from the Spurs. Of the 19 teams that old since 1999-2000, 15 have declined the following season. The Clippers were also atypically healthy in 2023-24, losing just 151 games to injury or non-COVID illness after an average of 247.5 the previous two seasons.
Given those factors, the Clippers were unlikely to win 50 games again had they brought everyone back, perhaps making it more difficult to justify paying the repeater tax by re-signing George.
Los Angeles Lakers
2023-24 record: 47-35\
ESPN BET win total: 43.5
Having brought back nearly their entire roster – rookies Dalton Knecht and Bronny James are the lone newcomers on full NBA contracts – the Lakers could be the purest test of these predictive factors. The Lakers had the biggest positive gap of any team last season between their expected and actual record at 4.5 games, going a league-best 11-4 in games decided by three points or fewer. No other team had more than nine wins by three or fewer.
As Lakers fans would surely point out, they actually lost 28% more games due to injury or non-COVID illness than the NBA average, but those absences were disproportionately concentrated among role players – guard Gabe Vincent was notably limited to 11 games. Stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James combined to play 147 games after averaging just 103.5 the previous two seasons.
Of teams that outperformed their expected record by between four and five games, 61% declined the next season. Add in the likelihood that Davis and James miss more time, and a win total 3.5 games below last season’s finish makes sense.
Minnesota Timberwolves
2023-24 record: 56-26\
ESPN BET win total: 52.5
Health is a key reason the Timberwolves could take a slight step backward after finishing just one game out of first in the Western Conference last season.
Although Minnesota lost an unremarkable 155 games to injury, more than half of those were from rookie second-round pick Jaylen Clark, who was drafted after suffering an Achilles rupture at UCLA. When weighing games missed by average minutes, the Timberwolves were the second-healthiest team in the NBA behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. (The Thunder’s strong health is offset here by being the second-youngest team after San Antonio.)
Beyond that, Minnesota might not be as fortunate in terms of opponent 3-point shooting. Teams made just 35% of their 3s against the Timberwolves, seventh lowest in the NBA, after hitting 37% (seventh highest) in four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert’s first season in the Twin Cities (2022-23).
Only Oklahoma City has a better win total in the West than Minnesota, so the Timberwolves should still end up near the top of the conference. But don’t be surprised if that comes with a weaker record than they had last season.
By Kevin Pelton, via ESPN