By Jacob Douglas | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-09-10 07:51:56
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
这位马刺队的五号秀有望在其第一个 NBA 赛季就成为一名 impactful 的防守球员。
上个赛季对圣安东尼奥马刺队来说是属于新秀的赛季。维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)占据了头条新闻和球衣销量。媒体日全是关于这位球队下一位超级巨星的介绍。人们对他的期望值被设定得难以置信的高，而文班亚马却以某种方式超越了这些期望。
马刺队 2024 年的首轮秀并没有获得同样的追捧。这是可以理解的。毕竟，并不是每一年选秀中都会出现一位身高 7 英尺 5 英寸并且能够命中后撤跳投的球员。有潜力的年轻后卫一抓一大把——但并不是所有人在 18 岁时就能在 NCAA 冠军球队中担任首发，并且身高达到 6 英尺 6 英寸。由于缺乏围绕卡斯尔新秀赛季的炒作，因此很难确切地知道今年对他的期待是什么。
一个好的开始是卡斯尔在康涅狄格大学读大一时的数据。卡斯尔场均出场 27 分钟，得到 11.1 分、2.9 次助攻、4.7 个篮板和 1.5 次失误，投篮命中率为 47.2%，三分球命中率为 26.7%，罚球命中率为 75.5%。卡斯尔是一位防守悍将，既能防守侧翼，也能防守控球手。在进攻端，他轮流担任有球和无球的角色，通常与卡姆·斯宾塞和特里斯坦·牛顿等其他控球手并肩作战。康涅狄格大学经常让他担任掩护人、空切手和挡拆持球人。你可以在这里找到对他比赛的完整分析。
卡斯尔在马刺队的角色应该与他在康涅狄格大学时相似。由于克里斯·保罗和特雷·琼斯等老将都在球队名单上，他可能会更多地打无球或与另一名后卫分担控球职责。他应该很适合马刺队的进攻体系，该体系强调多名控球手、传球和所有位置的掩护。
很难在进攻阵容中为卡斯尔找到一席之地。文班亚马、保罗、德文·瓦塞尔、杰里米·索汉(Jeremy Sochan) 和哈里森·巴恩斯感觉像是稳固的首发阵容。格雷格·波波维奇之前曾用首发阵容给我们带来过惊喜。即使是在替补阵容中，也很难想象卡斯尔会在与琼斯、凯尔登·约翰逊和扎克·柯林斯一起比赛时承担主要的进攻任务。
卡斯尔应该会在防守端立即产生影响。他打球很有活力，并且在进攻端拥有出色的臂展和力量。与琼斯和保罗并肩作战，他将有很多机会进入传球路线。在他担任主要控球手的阵容中，他将在进攻端为马刺队提供优势。就像所有新秀一样，他需要时间来学习如何成为一名有效的无球防守者。他的活力应该可以帮助他突破掩护，到达他的位置。
所以卡斯尔是一名替补出场的新秀，而且似乎不是进攻战术的焦点。符合这种描述的球员的数据统计是什么样的呢？
我将他与马刺队最近选中的另一名大型后卫进行了比较。德章泰·穆雷的第二个赛季（由于比赛场次的原因，使用第二个赛季而不是他的新秀赛季），他只首发了 48 场比赛，场均得到 8.1 分、2.9 次助攻和 1.2 次抢断，投篮命中率为 44.3%，三分球命中率为 26.5%，罚球命中率为 70.9%。他还入选了 NBA 最佳防守阵容二阵。这些数据统计可能与卡斯尔本赛季所能提供的数据相符。如果卡斯尔在当前的 NBA 格局中成为联盟前十的防守球员，我会感到惊讶，但他仍然应该是一个重要的补充。
我还很好奇在过去 5 年里，那些在选秀大会上排名靠前的后卫表现如何。我查看了自 2019 年以来所有在前五顺位被选中的后卫的数据，并得出了一些结论：
- 新秀后卫通常效率都很低。阿门·汤普森和贾·莫兰特是仅有的两名投篮命中率超过 45% 的球员，但他们的三分球命中率都低于 35%。
- 不要指望一名新秀后卫在第一年就能成为球场指挥官。只有拉梅洛·鲍尔和莫兰特在新秀赛季场均助攻超过 6 次。
- 错误是会发生的。除了汤普森（他也作为侧翼/前锋打了很长时间）之外，所有后卫场均失误都超过 2 次，其中一半人场均失误达到 3 次或更多。
- 过去五年中，前五顺位被选中的后卫都有着良好的记录。安东尼·爱德华兹、凯德·坎宁安、杰伦·格林、杰伦·萨格斯、达柳斯·加兰、莫兰特和鲍尔都已成为优秀甚至伟大的 NBA 球员。
卡斯尔作为一名新秀，肯定会经历一些挣扎。文班亚马只是个例，而不是常态。尽管如此，他应该会成为一名 impactful 的防守球员，并且是替补席上的另一个可靠贡献者。幸运的是，他所处的位置并不需要他成为一名关键球员并立即占据统治地位。他处在一个很好的位置，可以向球队名单上的老将学习，并发展成为马刺队年轻核心的长期一员。一个伟大的新秀赛季将是锦上添花。
点击查看原文：Realistic expectations for Stephon Castle’s rookie year
Realistic expectations for Stephon Castle’s rookie year
The Spurs’ top-5 pick should be an impact defender in his first NBA season.
Last season was all about the rookie for the San Antonio Spurs. Victor Wembanyama dominated headlines and jersey sales. Media day was all about the introduction of the franchise’s next superstar. Expectations were set incredibly high, and Wembanyama somehow surpassed them.
The Spurs’ 2024 first-round pick has not gotten the same fanfare. It makes sense. After all, it’s not every day that a 7-foot-5 who can hit step-back jumpers is available in the draft. Young guards with upside are about a dime a dozen – but not all of them are 6-foot-6 and were starters on an NCAA championship team at 18. Due to the lack of hype around his rookie season, it’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Castle this year.
A good place to start is Castle’s stats as a freshman at UCONN. Playing 27 minutes per game, Castle averaged 11.1 points, 2.9 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.5 turnovers while shooting 47.2% from the field, 26.7% from deep and 75.5% on free throws. Castle was a defensive force who guarded wings and ball-handlers alike. Offensively, he took turns playing on and off the ball, typically alongside other ball-handlers like Cam Spencer and Tristan Newton. UCONN used him frequently as a screener, cutter and pick-and-roll ball handler. You can find a full breakdown of his game here.
Castle’s role with the Spurs should be similar to how he played at UCONN. With veterans like Chris Paul and Tre Jones on the roster, he will likely play more off the ball or share ball-handling duties with another guard. He should fit in well with the Spurs offense that emphasizes multiple ball-handlers, passing and screening at all positions.
It’s hard to find a fit in the offensive lineup for Castle. Wembanyama, Paul, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Harrison Barnes feel like locks. Gregg Popovich has surprised us with starting lineups before. Even with the bench unit, it’s hard to imagine Castle is tasked with a major offensive load while he plays alongside Jones, Keldon Johnson and Zach Collins.
Castle should make an immediate impact on the defensive end. He plays with a tremendous motor and has great length and strength at the point of attack. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to get into the passing lanes playing alongside Jones and Paul. In lineups where he is the primary ball-handler, he will give the Spurs an advantage at the point of attack. As all rookies do, he will need time to learn to be an effective off-ball defender. His motor should help him fight through screens and get to his spots.
So Castle is a rookie coming off the bench and doesn’t seem to be the focal point of the offensive game plan. What does the stat line like for a player that fits that description?
I compared him to another big guard the Spurs drafted somewhat recently. Dejounte Murray’s second season (using it instead of his rookie year due to games played) he started in just 48 games, averaging 8.1 points, 2.9 assists and 1.2 steals while shooting 44.3% from the field, 26.5% from three and 70.9% from the free throw line. He also made the All-NBA defensive second team. The counting stats could match what Castle can provide this season. I would be surprised if Castle is a top-10 defender in the current NBA landscape, but he should still be a big addition.
I was also curious how top-drafted guards have fared in the last 5 years. I looked at the stats for all guards selected in the top-5 dating back to 2019, and came away with a few conclusions:
- Rookie guards are typically pretty inefficient. Amen Thompson and Ja Morant were the only players to shoot above 45% from the field, and they both shot sub 35% from three.
- Don’t expect a rookie guard to be a floor general in year one. Only LaMelo Ball and Morant averaged more than 6 assists in their rookie seasons.
- Mistakes will happen. All but one guard (Thompson, who played a lot of minutes as a wing/forward as well) averaged over 2 turnovers a game, and half of them averaged 3 or more.
- There is a strong track record for top-5 selected guards in the last five years. Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, Darius Garland, Morant and Ball have all turned into good to great NBA players.
Castle will surely go through some struggles as a rookie. Wembanyama is the exception, not the rule. Despite that, he should be an impact defender and another solid contributor off the bench. Luckily, he’s not in a position where he needs to be a go-to guy and dominate right away. He is in a good position to learn from the veterans on the roster and develop into a long-term piece of the Spurs’ young core. A great rookie season would be icing on the cake.
By Jacob Douglas, via Pounding The Rock