由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
- 鲍比·马克斯(Bobby Marks)，ESPN，2024 年 8 月 29 日，美国东部时间下午 12:42
距离 2024-25 NBA 常规赛开赛还有不到两个月的时间，卫冕冠军波士顿凯尔特人队将于 10 月 22 日在揭幕战中主场迎战纽约尼克斯队。
但现在展望将主导 2025 年休赛期的故事情节以及重大举措可能对即将到来的赛季产生的影响，永远不会太早。
这其中包括勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)这样的超级巨星的未来、卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)即将签下的历史性超级顶薪合同，以及哪些球队最有能力在选秀中选中杜克大学前锋库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)这位潜在的未来超级巨星。
以下是可能定义 2025 年夏季的十大问题。
跳转到问题：
谁能在本赛季签约？|勒布朗和斯蒂芬呢？| 25 年的顶级自由球员？
需要注意的趋势？|篮网会制造动静吗？|文班和弗拉格？|凯尔特人处于危险之中？
其他陷入困境的球队？|东契奇、亚历山大即将获得巨额薪水？|新秀最高合同？
哪些 NBA 球星可以在本赛季期间续约？
目前的劳资协议允许球员在进入自由球员市场之前签下更大的合同，因此这个问题的答案是肯定的。
自 2023 年 7 月以来，共有 45 名球员续约。休赛期签约的现役和前任全明星球员包括杰伦·布伦森(Jalen Brunson)、多诺万·米切尔(Donovan Mitchell)、巴姆·阿德巴约(Bam Adebayo)、劳里·马尔卡宁(Lauri Markkanen)、贾勒特·阿伦(Jarrett Allen)和杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)。
德阿龙·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)现在有资格续约，而下一波续约的球员可能包括乔尔·恩比德(Joel Embiid)和凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)。这两位球员的合同还剩两年，并且有资格在本赛季开始之前再续约一个赛季。
其他可以在本赛季之前或期间续约的老将包括贾马尔·穆雷(Jamal Murray)、朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle)、布兰登·英格拉姆(Brandon Ingram)、吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)、鲁迪·戈贝尔(Rudy Gobert)、小贾伦·杰克逊(Jaren Jackson Jr.)、阿隆·戈登(Aaron Gordon)和 T·J·麦康奈尔(T.J. McConnell)。
下个休赛期，有资格续约的球员包括：尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)、德文·布克(Devin Booker)、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)、贾·莫兰特(Ja Morant)、锡安·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson)、达米安·利拉德(Damian Lillard)、米卡尔·布里奇斯(Mikal Bridges)、特雷·杨(Trae Young)、弗雷德·范弗利特(Fred VanVleet)、凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)、克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯(Kristaps Porzingis)和德雷蒙德·格林(Draymond Green)。
在上赛季开始前，创纪录的 14 名前首轮秀签下了新秀续约合同，之后几位球员有资格获得新秀续约合同。由于 2021 年选秀班中只有凯德·坎宁安(Cade Cunningham)、斯科蒂·巴恩斯(Scottie Barnes)、弗朗茨·瓦格纳(Franz Wagner)和埃文·莫布里(Evan Mobley)同意续约，预计在 10 月 21 日截止日期前会有更多球员续约。有资格获得新秀续约合同的知名球员包括杰伦·萨格斯(Jalen Suggs)、乔纳森·库明加(Jonathan Kuminga)、杰伦·格林(Jalen Green)和阿尔佩伦·申京(Alperen Sengun)。
詹姆斯将如何影响明年夏季的自由球员市场？
詹姆斯和他的未来将连续第二个休赛期成为联盟关注的焦点。
这位四届 NBA 总冠军在 7 月份与洛杉矶湖人队签署了一份为期两年、价值 1.013 亿美元的合同，如果他在 2024-25 赛季拒绝执行价值 5260 万美元的球员选项，他可以成为一名自由球员。
詹姆斯在 12 月 30 日年满 40 岁，他知道自己辉煌的职业生涯即将结束。
“不会很长，”詹姆斯在 3 月份谈到自己还能打多久时说道。“不会很长了。很明显，我已经走过了巅峰期。所以我不会再打 21 年了，这是肯定的。但不会很长了。”
詹姆斯继续挑战着时间老人。上赛季，他连续第 20 年入选全明星阵容，出战了自 2017-18 赛季以来的最多比赛，并创下了职业生涯最高的 41.6% 的三分球命中率。
如果詹姆斯继续保持全明星级别的水平，那么湖人队在球场上的成功（或者说缺乏成功）会影响他的下一步行动吗？
在季后赛首轮输给丹佛掘金队之后，湖人队聘请了 JJ·雷迪克(JJ Redick)担任主教练，并将有 13 名球员回归。他们在休赛期的引援只来自选秀——道尔顿·克内希特(Dalton Knecht)和布朗尼·詹姆斯(Bronny James)。
湖人队在下个休赛期将超过工资帽，但明年夏天他们将有灵活的空间在自由球员市场上进行补充或进行交易。与今年夏天他们被第二道硬工资帽限制不同的是，预计湖人队在明年 7 月份将比第二道硬工资帽低 4000 万美元。
而对于库里来说，连续第二次在附加赛中失利是否会影响他的长期未来？
“我想赢，”库里在 7 月份告诉 Andscape 的马克·J·斯皮尔斯(Marc J. Spears)。“这么说吧，这是一种比较委婉的说法，如果你的球队是一支垫底球队，而且仅仅是因为你想待在那里，我会很难接受。但我不认为这会成为现实。”
这位金州勇士队的球星在下个夏天不会成为自由球员；他于周四同意了一份为期一年、价值 6260 万美元的续约合同。
勇士队上赛季赢下了 46 场比赛，但在今年夏天经历了巨大的变化。克莱·汤普森(Klay Thompson)转会达拉斯独行侠队标志着一个时代的结束，但球队增加了一批有贡献的球员，包括凯尔·安德森(Kyle Anderson)、巴迪·希尔德(Buddy Hield)和德安东尼·梅尔顿(De’Anthony Melton)。
下个休赛期，他们将拥有四个可交易的首轮选秀权。但勇士队在自由球员市场上进行补充或交易的灵活性取决于库明加的未来，库明加和摩西·穆迪(Moses Moody)都有资格在本赛季开始前签署新秀续约合同。如果与库明加的续约谈判没有达成，由于对他的自由球员保留条款，金州勇士队仍然会超过工资帽。
说到 2025 年。除了詹姆斯，还有谁可能是自由球员？
不要指望看到大批球员进入自由球员市场，然后直接与另一支拥有薪金空间的球队签约。在 30 位被认为是首发级别或更高水平的球星中，有 25 位要么是：受限制自由球员，要么拥有球员选项或球队选项，要么有资格续约。
以下是顶级球员名单：
球队基石级别： 勒布朗·詹姆斯 (球员选项)
全明星级别： 吉米·巴特勒 (球员选项) 和朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (球员选项)
顶级首发级别： 杰伦·约翰逊(Jalen Johnson) (受限制)、约什·吉迪(Josh Giddey) (受限制)、凯里·欧文 (球员选项)、阿隆·戈登 (球员选项)、贾马尔·穆雷、乔纳森·库明加 (受限制)、杰伦·格林 (受限制)、阿尔佩伦·申京 (受限制)、弗雷德·范弗利特 (球队选项)、迈尔斯·特纳(Myles Turner)、詹姆斯·哈登 (球员选项)、鲁迪·戈贝尔 (球员选项)、布兰登·英格拉姆、亚历克斯·卡鲁索(Alex Caruso)、杰伦·萨格斯 (受限制)
首发级别： 克林特·卡佩拉(Clint Capela)、卡姆·托马斯(Cam Thomas) (受限制)、特伦斯·曼恩(Terance Mann)、伊维察·祖巴茨(Ivica Zubac)、丹吉洛·拉塞尔(D’Angelo Russell)、布鲁克·洛佩兹(Brook Lopez)、克里斯·米德尔顿 (球员选项)、纳兹·里德(Naz Reid) (球员选项)、特雷·墨菲(Trey Murphy) (受限制)、小凯利·乌布雷 (球员选项)、泰厄斯·琼斯(Tyus Jones) 和约翰·科林斯(John Collins)
球员选项：球员拥有执行或拒绝下赛季合同的权利；球队选项：球队拥有执行或拒绝球员下赛季合同的权利；受限制：球员可以与其他球队签约，但原球队有权匹配报价
预计本赛季自由球员的数量将会减少。
尽管预计工资帽将增加 10%，但 ESPN 预计只有布鲁克林篮网队在明年 7 月份拥有超过 3000 万美元的薪金空间。如果休斯顿火箭队拒绝执行价值 4480 万美元的范弗利特球队选项，他们可能会加入篮网队的行列。
预计薪金空间将少于 2500 万美元的球队包括圣安东尼奥马刺队、华盛顿奇才队、新奥 Orleans 鹈鹕队（但前提是他们没有与英格拉姆续约）、洛杉矶快船队和芝加哥公牛队。
事实证明，球员与现任球队续约、选择执行合同然后再续约的能力越来越有利。在休赛期签署合同的 242 名球员中，只有保罗·乔治(Paul George)和以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因(Isaiah Hartenstein)更换了球队，起薪超过 3000 万美元。
例如，英格拉姆有资格签署一份为期四年、价值 2.08 亿美元的续约合同，但如果在 6 月 30 日之前没有达成协议，他将成为一名不受限制的自由球员。
“这其中存在着财务现实，”鹈鹕队篮球运营执行副总裁大卫·格里芬(David Griffin)在 7 月份谈到英格拉姆的状况时在 Sirius XM 上说道。“我认为就保持这支球队的完整性而言，我们能够做到的可能不像他和他的经纪人希望我们能够做到的那样。所以现在，我们将静观其变。”
需要关注的自由球员市场趋势？
请注意，更多自由球员将被签约并交易到他们喜欢的目的地。
尽管下个休赛期能够直接签下自由球员的球队数量有限，但 2023 年劳资协议中加强的交易规则将继续使更多球队能够灵活地通过交易获得自由球员。
根据劳资协议，11 名自由球员（包括今年休赛期的 8 名）被签约然后被交易。相比之下，2022 年只有一名自由球员（科林·塞克斯顿(Collin Sexton)）进行了这种类型的操作。
这就是今年夏天两笔最引人注目的交易是如何完成的。独行侠队交易得到汤普森，这使得勇士队能够在一笔创纪录的六队交易中签下安德森和希尔德。
同样，萨克拉门托国王队对自由球员德马尔·德罗赞(DeMar DeRozan)的交易也是通过涉及公牛队和马刺队的先签后换完成的。
明年夏天可能会由……布鲁克林篮网队掌控？
是的，2025 年的休赛期将由布鲁克林掌控。
从休斯顿交易回他们在 2025 年的首轮选秀权（这也取消了 2026 年的互换权），以及将米卡尔·布里奇斯交易到尼克斯队以换取史无前例的五个首轮选秀权的交易表明，布鲁克林愿意彻底重建并进入本赛季。
然而，这种想法可能会在明年夏天发生改变。
布鲁克林拥有预计 7000 万美元的薪金空间，以及在 2025 年 6 月的选秀大会上拥有联盟最高的四个首轮选秀权，其中包括一个可能是高顺位的乐透签。
如果篮网队在本赛季交易掉前锋多里安·芬尼-史密斯(Dorian Finney-Smith)和卡梅隆·约翰逊(Cameron Johnson)，他们的灵活性可能会进一步提高。芬尼-史密斯拥有价值 1540 万美元的球员选项，并且可以在 2025 年成为自由球员。在本赛季之后，约翰逊还剩两年合同，价值 4300 万美元。
“我认为我们必须要有耐心，你知道，我们不会着急，”篮网队总经理肖恩·马克斯(Sean Marks)在 7 月份谈到球队的重建进程时说道。
“但我确实认为，在这个市场上，拥有这么多选秀资产，我们以前做到过。所以，我再次认为，这不会加速，但也不认为这是一个漫长的过程。”
篮网队不是目前唯一一支拥有多个 2025 年首轮选秀权的球队。将他们的四个选秀权与俄克拉荷马城（3 个）、犹他（3 个）、圣安东尼奥（2 个）、奥兰多（2 个）加在一起，几乎占了首轮选秀权的一半。
库珀·弗拉格会与文班在圣安东尼奥联手吗？
如果说布鲁克林是掌控 2025 年休赛期的球队，那么已经拥有 reigning 年度最佳新秀维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)的球队就是一匹黑马。
圣安东尼奥没有布鲁克林那样的薪金空间，但马刺队可能有两次机会选中潜在的状元秀和球队基石库珀·弗拉格。
马刺队拥有自己的首轮签，以及在 2022 年德章泰·默里(Dejounte Murray)的交易中获得的老鹰队的无保护首轮签。他们还拥有黄蜂队的首轮签，但该签位受前 14 顺位保护。
弗拉格在 2024 年 ESPN 100 强中排名第一，他在巴黎夏季奥运会之前对阵美国队的比赛中继续给球队高管们留下深刻印象。ESPN 选秀专家乔纳森·吉沃尼(Jonathan Givony)预测弗拉格、艾斯·贝利(Ace Bailey)和迪伦·哈珀(Dylan Harper)将成为明年选秀大会上的前三名新秀。
圣安东尼奥也有可以在交易中使用的选秀资产和可交易合同。包括明年 6 月的两个首轮签在内，马刺队控制着他们在每个赛季的首轮签，并且拥有来自芝加哥、亚特兰大和萨克拉门托的未来首轮签。他们还拥有与波士顿（2028 年）、明尼苏达或达拉斯（2030 年）以及萨克拉门托（2031 年）的互换权。
除了能够创造高达 2800 万美元的薪金空间外，圣安东尼奥在 2025 年没有球员的薪水超过 3000 万美元，并且有五名球员拿着首轮新秀合同。
进一步的劳资协议变更会终结波士顿凯尔特人王朝的可能性吗？
凯尔特人队继续全力以赴，他们的阵容赢得了 NBA 总冠军。
在这个休赛期，波士顿与塔图姆签署了一份 NBA 纪录的续约合同（五年，3.14 亿美元），并与德里克·怀特(Derrick White)（四年，1.259 亿美元）和萨姆·豪泽(Sam Hauser)（四年，4500 万美元）续约，总计 4.85 亿美元。
“我们将确保我们给这支球队一个机会，让他们在刚刚取得的成就的基础上再接再厉。他们应得的，”凯尔特人队篮球运营总裁布拉德·史蒂文斯(Brad Stevens)在 8 月份告诉《波士顿环球报》。
这三名球员的新合同要到下个休赛期才会生效，而届时 NBA 将再次对过度支出的球队实施更严厉的惩罚措施。除了现有的硬工资帽限制（限制了球队如何在其自身球员之外进行阵容补充）外，凯尔特人队和其他超过奢侈税的球队将支付更高的经济处罚。
由于凯尔特人队预计将成为重复奢侈税球队（连续四个赛季都是奢侈税球队），他们预计将支付创纪录的 2.8 亿美元的奢侈税。如果阵容保持不变，球队的球员薪水和奢侈税将超过 5 亿美元。
凯尔特人队在 2002 年的收购价为 3.6 亿美元。
“当我们走到那一步时，我们会克服每一个障碍，与超过第二道硬工资帽相关的不同篮球处罚是真实存在的，我们只需要权衡这些处罚与我们作为一支篮球队的处境，我们还必须权衡这其中的财务因素，”史蒂文斯说道。“我相信这将成为新投资者之间讨论的一部分。”
正如 7 月份宣布的那样，由维克·格鲁斯贝克(Wyc Grousbeck)领导的凯尔特人队多数股权集团预计将在今年或明年年初出售球队的多数股权。预计格鲁斯贝克将继续担任球队老板，直到 2028 年底。
凯尔特人队不是唯一一支可能受到影响的重复奢侈税球队。菲尼克斯太阳队在本赛季为他们的球员阵容投入了 4.1 亿美元，预计将在 2025-26 赛季支付 5.4 亿美元的工资和奢侈税。太阳队明年预计 3.1 亿美元的奢侈税相当于布鲁克林、华盛顿和圣安东尼奥三支球队的工资总和。
哪些球队受硬工资帽规则的影响最大？
今年夏天逐步实施的新硬工资帽规则不会消失。
预计在 2025-26 赛季超过第二道硬工资帽的凯尔特人队、太阳队和明尼苏达森林狼队将在如何补充阵容方面面临同样的限制。
这些球队将不允许送出资金、以 570 万美元的奢侈税中产特例签下球员、在交易中收回超过 100% 的薪水或汇总送出的合同。
由于这三支球队本赛季的预计支出都将超过第二道硬工资帽，他们从 6 月下旬开始的 2032 年首轮选秀权现在将被冻结，无法交易。
球队受益的地方在于工资帽提高了 10%，因为硬工资帽的水平与其增长是挂钩的。这意味着第二道硬工资帽的水平预计将从 1.781 亿美元增加到 1.959 亿美元。因此，由于这一增长，预计下个休赛期将有 26 支球队的薪金空间比第二道硬工资帽低至少 2000 万美元。
尼克斯队就是其中之一。由于布伦森下赛季的薪水减少了 1100 万美元，纽约的薪金空间预计将比第二道硬工资帽低 2150 万美元。
哪些球员接下来有资格签署超级顶薪合同？
在连续的休赛期，凯尔特人队的球星杰伦·布朗和塔图姆打破了 NBA 历史上最大合同的纪录。
明年，这份荣誉可能会属于东契奇。
由于东契奇在 2023 年和 2024 年效力于达拉斯期间都入选了全明星阵容，他现在有资格在明年夏天签署一份为期五年、价值 3.45 亿美元的超级顶薪续约合同。第一年的年薪为 5950 万美元，将于 2026-27 赛季开始生效。
尽管东契奇将获得总金额最大的合同，但俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)可能会成为第一个单赛季薪水超过 8000 万美元的球员。
与东契奇一样，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大仍然有资格签署一份超级顶薪续约合同，因为他入选了 2023 年和 2024 年的全明星阵容。但由于从明年夏天开始他还剩两年合同，因此这份续约合同仅为期四年，价值 2.93 亿美元。
即使东契奇和吉尔杰斯-亚历山大本赛季没有入选全明星阵容或没有达到 65 场比赛的标准，他们仍然有资格签署这些续约合同。
其他有资格签署超级顶薪合同的球员（福克斯、杨、小贾伦·杰克逊、小迈克尔·波特(Michael Porter Jr.)），但前提是他们在 2024-25 赛季入选全明星阵容、获得 MVP 或最佳防守球员。
杨在 2022 年获得了全明星荣誉，福克斯在 2023 年获得了全明星荣誉，杰克逊在 2023 年获得了最佳防守球员。
如果贾马尔·穆雷和英格拉姆本赛季没有签署续约合同，然后都入选了全明星阵容，那么他们两人都将有资格在明年 7 月签署一份为期五年、价值 3.14 亿美元的合同。
坎宁安、瓦格纳、莫布里和巴恩斯的新秀顶薪续约合同中都包含了全明星、MVP 和最佳防守球员的条款。对于巴恩斯和坎宁安来说，如果他们每个人都获得其中一项荣誉，那么他们 2.24 亿美元的续约合同将增加到 2.69 亿美元。
哪些球员有资格获得 2025 年的新秀续约合同？
让俄克拉荷马城保持阵容完整的代价将在下个休赛期变得昂贵。
包括一份可能为吉尔杰斯-亚历山大提供的价值 2.93 亿美元的超级顶薪续约合同，雷霆队可能会为切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)和杰伦·威廉姆斯(Jalen Williams)提供总计 5.92 亿美元的续约合同。
2023 年 NBA 年度最佳新秀保罗·班凯罗(Paolo Banchero)可能会成为自 2027 年德怀特·霍华德(Dwight Howard)以来第一个与奥兰多魔术队签署新秀顶薪续约合同的球员。
班凯罗、霍姆格伦和威廉姆斯有资格签署一份为期五年、价值 2.46 亿美元的续约合同。如果在合同中加入全明星、MVP 或最佳防守球员的荣誉条款，这些续约合同的金额可能会增加到 2.96 亿美元。
其他值得关注的新秀续约候选人包括基冈·穆雷(Keegan Murray)、小贾巴里·史密斯(Jabari Smith Jr.)、本尼迪克特·马图林(Bennedict Mathurin)、沃克·凯斯勒(Walker Kessler)和尼古拉·约维奇(Nikola Jovic)。
点击查看原文：LeBron's future, Luka's historic payday, Nets' big moves? 10 questions for 2025 NBA free agency
LeBron’s future, Luka’s historic payday, Nets’ big moves? 10 questions for 2025 NBA free agency
- Bobby Marks, ESPNAug 29, 2024, 12:42 PM ET
The start to the 2024-25 NBA regular season is less than two months away with the defending champion Boston Celtics hosting the New York Knicks on opening night on Oct. 22.
But it is never too early to look ahead to the storylines that will dominate the 2025 offseason and what impact big moves could make on the upcoming season.
That includes the future of a superstar like LeBron James, the historic supermax deal awaiting Luka Doncic and which teams are best equipped to draft a potential future superstar in Duke forward Cooper Flagg.
Here are the top 10 questions that could define the summer of 2025.
Jump to a question:
Who could sign this season? | What about LeBron and Steph? | Top free agents in '25?
A trend to watch? | The Nets will make noise? | Wemby AND Flagg? | Celtics in peril?
Other teams in trouble? | Luka, SGA on verge of big paydays? | Rookie max deals?
Which NBA stars could sign extensions during this season?
The current collective bargaining agreement allows players to sign for more money before entering free agency, so the answer to this question becomes a resounding yes.
A total of 45 players have signed extensions since July 2023. The list of current and former All-Stars that signed this offseason include Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Lauri Markkanen, Jarrett Allen and Jayson Tatum.
De’Aaron Fox is eligible now, while the next wave of players signing extensions could include Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant. That pair have two years left on their contracts and are eligible to extend for one season prior to the start of this season.
Other veterans who could sign extensions before or during this season include Jamal Murray, Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram, Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Jaren Jackson Jr., Aaron Gordon and T.J. McConnell.
Next offseason, the list of players eligible to extend includes: Nikola Jokic, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, Damian Lillard, Mikal Bridges, Trae Young, Fred VanVleet, Kyrie Irving, Kristaps Porzingis and Draymond Green.
Several players are eligible to get rookie extensions after a record 14 former first-round picks signed such deals before the start of last season. With only Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes, Franz Wagner and Evan Mobley from the 2021 draft class having agreed to extensions so far, expect more before the Oct. 21 deadline. Notable players eligible for rookie extensions include Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun.
How will James factor into next summer’s free agency?
James and his future will again be at the center of league attention for a second straight offseason.
The four-time NBA champion signed a two-year, $101.3 million contract with the Los Angeles Lakers in July and can become a free agent if he declines his $52.6 million player option in 2024-25.
James turns 40 on Dec. 30 and he knows the end of his illustrious pro career is coming to an end.
“Not very long,” James said in March on how long he sees himself playing. “Not very long. I’m on the other side, obviously, of the hill. So I’m not going to play another 21 years, that’s for damn sure. But not very long.”
James continues to defy father time. He was named All-NBA for a 20th straight year last season, played his most games since 2017-18 and shot a career high 41.6% on 3-pointers.
If James continues to play at an All-NBA level, will the Lakers’ success on the court (or perhaps the lack of) fuel what his next move will be?
After losing to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers hired JJ Redick as coach and will return 13 players. Their offseason additions only came from the draft – Dalton Knecht and Bronny James.
The Lakers are over the salary cap next offseason but will have the flexibility next summer to add in free agency or make a trade. Unlike this summer when they were pressed against the second apron, the Lakers are a projected $40 million below it next July.
And with Curry, could a second straight loss in the play-in tournament factor into his long-term future?
“I want to win,” Curry told Marc J. Spears of Andscape in July. “Let’s put it this way, it’s a long-winded way of saying that if it is a situation where you’re a bottom feeder and it’s just because you want to stay there, I’d have a hard time with that. But I don’t think that’s going to be the reality.”
The Golden State Warriors star won’t be a free agent next summer; he agreed Thursday to a one-year, $62.6 million extension.
The Warriors won 46 games last season but underwent big changes this summer. Klay Thompson’s exit to the Dallas Mavericks marked the end of an era in the Bay, but the team added a trio of contributors in Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield and De’Anthony Melton.
Next offseason, they will have four tradable first-round picks. But the Warriors’ flexibility to add in free agency or a trade is determined by the future of Kuminga, who along with Moses Moody are eligible to sign rookies extensions before the season starts. If a deal with Kuminga is not reached, Golden State is still over the salary cap because of its free agent hold.
On to 2025. Besides James, who else could be the free agents?
Do not expect to see a mass exodus of players entering free agency and then signing outright with another team that has cap space. Out of 30 notable stars who would be considered playing at starting level or better, 25 are either: restricted free agents, have a player or team option, or are eligible to sign an extension.
Here’s a list of top names:
Franchise level: LeBron James (P)
All-Star level: Jimmy Butler (P) and Julius Randle (P)
Top Starter level: Jalen Johnson (R), Josh Giddey (R), Kyrie Irving (P), Aaron Gordon (P), Jamal Murray, Jonathan Kuminga (R), Jalen Green (R), Alperen Sengun (R), Fred VanVleet (T), Myles Turner, James Harden (P), Rudy Gobert (P), Brandon Ingram, Alex Caruso, Jalen Suggs (R)
Starter level: Clint Capela, Cam Thomas (R), Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac, D’Angelo Russell, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton (P), Naz Reid (P), Trey Murphy (R), Kelly Oubre Jr. (P), Tyus Jones and John Collins
P: Player option; T: Team option; R: Restricted
Expect the group of free agents to shrink this season.
Despite a projected 10% increase in the salary cap, ESPN is projecting only the Brooklyn Nets to have more than $30 million in room next July. The Houston Rockets could join the Nets if they decline the $44.8 million VanVleet team option.
The list of teams that project to have fewer than $25 million includes the San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards, New Orleans Pelicans (but only if they do not re-sign Ingram), LA Clippers and Chicago Bulls.
The ability for a player to re-sign with his current team, opt-into a contract and then extend continues to prove more beneficial. Of the 242 players that signed contracts this offseason, only Paul George and Isaiah Hartenstein changed teams for starting salaries greater than $30 million.
For example, Ingram is eligible to sign a four-year, $208 million extension but becomes an unrestricted free agent if there is no agreement reached prior to June 30.
“There is a financial reality to this,” Pelicans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin said of Ingram’s status on Sirius XM in July. "And where I think we can go in terms of keeping this group together, might not be as far as he and his agency would like us to be able to go. So for now, we’re going to play it out. "
Free agency trend to keep an eye on?
Pay attention to more free agents getting signed and traded to their preferred destination.
Despite a limited number of teams that can sign free agents outright next offseason, the enhanced trade rules from the 2023 collective bargaining agreement will continue to allow more teams the flexibility to acquire a free agent in a trade.
Under the CBA, 11 free agents (including eight this offseason) were signed and then traded. For comparison, there was only one free agent (Collin Sexton) in 2022 who made that type of move.
That’s how two of this summer’s most notable deals were completed. The Mavericks’ deal for Thompson allowed the Warriors to then sign Anderson and Hield in a record-breaking six-team trade.
Similarly, the Sacramento Kings’ move for free agent DeMar DeRozan came via a sign-and-trade involving the Bulls and Spurs.
Next summer could be controlled by … the Brooklyn Nets?
Yes, the 2025 offseason runs through Brooklyn.
The trade to reacquire their 2025 first-round pick from Houston (that also eliminated swap rights in 2026) and the deal that sent Mikal Bridges to the Knicks for an unprecedented five first-round picks indicates Brooklyn is willing to bottom out and enter this season in a full scale rebuild.
That thinking, however, could change next summer.
Brooklyn has a projected $70 million in cap space to go along with a league-high four first-round picks in the June 2025 draft, including a likely high lottery pick.
The Nets’ flexibility could further increase if they trade forwards Dorian Finney-Smith and Cameron Johnson this season. Finney-Smith has a $15.4 million player option and could be a free agent in 2025. Johnson has two years and $43 million remaining after this season.
"I think we have to be patient, you know, we’re not going to be in a hurry, " Nets general manager Sean Marks said about the team’s rebuilding process in July.
“But I do think being in this market, with this amount of draft assets, we’ve done it before. And so again, I think, not that it’s going to be expedited by any means, but I don’t think it’s a long process, either.”
The Nets are not the only team currently holding multiple 2025 first-round picks. Combine their four with Oklahoma City (3), Utah (3), San Antonio (2), Orlando (2) and that’s nearly half of the picks in the first round.
Could Cooper Flagg partner up with Wemby in San Antonio?
If Brooklyn is the team that controls the 2025 offseason, then the team that already boasts reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama is the wild card.
San Antonio does not have the cap space Brooklyn possesses, but the Spurs could have two chances at potential No. 1 pick and franchise player Cooper Flagg.
The Spurs have their own first and also the Hawks’ unprotected first that was obtained in the Dejounte Murray trade in 2022. They also have the Hornets’ first, but that is protected top-14.
Flagg, ranked No. 1 in the 2024 ESPN 100, continued to impress team executives with his play against Team USA prior to the Paris Summer Olympics. ESPN draft expert Jonathan Givony projects Flagg, Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper as the top three prospects for next year’s draft.
San Antonio also has the draft assets and tradable contracts to use in a trade. Including their two firsts next June, the Spurs control their own first in every season and have future firsts from Chicago, Atlanta and Sacramento. They also have swap rights with Boston (2028), Minnesota or Dallas (2030) and Sacramento (2031).
Besides the ability to create up to $28 million in room, San Antonio has no player earning more than $30 million in 2025 and five players on first-round scale contracts.
Will further CBA changes end a possible Boston Celtics dynasty?
The Celtics continue to go all in with a roster that won the NBA championship.
This offseason, Boston signed Tatum to an NBA-record extension (five years, $314 million) as well as Derrick White (four years, $125.9 million) and Sam Hauser (four years, $45 million) for a total of $485 million.
“We’re going to make sure we give this group a chance to build on what they just accomplished. They deserve that,” Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens told the Boston Globe in August.
The new contracts for the three players do not begin until next offseason and coincide when the NBA yet again is set to introduce more punitive penalties to teams that spend excessively. Along with the existing apron restrictions that limit how teams can add to their rosters outside of retaining their own players, the Celtics and teams over the luxury tax will pay a bigger financial penalty.
Because the Celtics are a projected repeater tax team (a tax team in four straight seasons), they are projected to pay a record high $280 million tax penalty. If the roster stays intact, the team’s bill in players’ salaries and tax penalties will exceed $500 million.
The Celtics were purchased for $360 million in 2002.
“We’ll cross every bridge when we get there, and the different basketball penalties that will be associated with being above the second apron, those are real, and we’ll just have to weigh those against where we are as a basketball team, and we’ll also have to weigh the financial part of that,” Stevens said. “And I’m sure part of that will be a discussion amongst whoever the new investors are.”
As announced in July, the Celtics majority ownership group led by Wyc Grousbeck expect to sell a majority interest in the team either this year or early next year. It is expected that Grousbeck will remain as the team’s governor until the end of 2028.
The Celtics are not the only repeater tax team that could be impacted. The Phoenix Suns committed $410 million to their roster this season and are projected to pay $540 million in salary and tax penalties in 2025-26. The Suns’ $310 million projected tax penalty next year is equivalent to the combined salaries of Brooklyn, Washington and San Antonio.
Which teams will be most impacted by the apron rules?
The new set of apron rules that were phased in this summer are not going anywhere.
The Celtics, Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves – three teams projected to be over the second apron in 2025-26 – will face the same restrictions in how they can add to their rosters.
Those teams will not be allowed to send out money, sign a player to the $5.7 million tax midlevel exception, take back more than 100% in salary in a trade or aggregate contracts sent out.
Because each of the three teams are projected to finish over the second apron this season, their 2032 first-round pick starting in late June now becomes frozen and untradable.
Where teams benefit from is the salary cap increasing 10% because the apron levels are tied in with its growth. That means the second-apron level is projected to increase from $178.1 to $195.9 million. Therefore, 26 teams are projected to be at least $20 million or more below the second apron next offseason because of the increase.
One of those teams is the Knicks. Since Brunson took $11 million less in salary for next season, New York is a projected $21.5 million below the second apron.
Which players will next be eligible for a supermax deal?
In consecutive offseasons, Celtics stars Jaylen Brown and Tatum broke the record for the largest contract in NBA history.
Next year, the honor probably will go to Doncic.
Because Doncic earned All-NBA in 2023 and 2024 with Dallas, he is now eligible to sign a five-year, $345 million supermax extension next summer. The $59.5 million salary in the first year would begin in 2026-27.
Though Doncic is set to earn the largest overall contract, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could become the first player to have a salary in one season for more than $80 million.
Like Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander will still be eligible to sign a supermax extension because he was selected All-NBA in 2023 and 2024. But because he has two years left starting next summer, the extension is only for four years and $293 million.
Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander will still be eligible to sign the extensions even if they do not earn All-NBA this season or meet the 65-game criteria.
Other supermax eligible players (Fox, Young, Jaren Jackson Jr., Michael Porter Jr.) but only if they earn All-NBA, MVP or defensive player of the year in 2024-25.
Young received All-NBA honors in 2022, Fox in 2023 and Jackson was selected defensive player of the year in 2023.
If Jamal Murray and Ingram do not sign extensions this season and then are All-NBA, both would be eligible to sign a five-year, $314 million contract next July.
Cunningham, Wagner, Mobley and Barnes all have All-NBA, MVP and defensive player of the year language in their max rookie extensions. For Barnes and Cunningham, their $224 million extension increases to $269 million if they each earn either one of those honors.
Which players are eligible for 2025 rookie extensions?
The price to keep the roster in Oklahoma City intact is set to become expensive next offseason.
Including a likely $293-million supermax extension for Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder could hand out an additional $592 million in combined extensions to Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.
Paolo Banchero, the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year, could become the first Orlando Magic player to sign a rookie max extension since Dwight Howard in 2027.
Banchero, Holmgren and Williams are eligible to sign five-year, $246 million extensions. Those extensions could increase to $296 million if All-NBA, MVP or defensive player of the year honors are negotiated into the contracts.
Other notable rookie extension candidates include Keegan Murray, Jabari Smith Jr., Bennedict Mathurin, Walker Kessler and Nikola Jovic.
via ESPN