By MateoMayorga | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-08-21 22:24:34
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
通往奖杯的道路漫长而艰难，马刺队的赛程也十分紧凑。他们是否有能力从小组赛中脱颖而出？
圣安东尼奥马刺队正在全力争夺酋长杯（季中锦标赛的冠军奖项）。这对他们来说是一个绝佳的机会，可以在激烈的竞争中展示年轻球员的成长，并在比赛中一路过关斩将，赢得丰厚的奖金。他们被分在西部联盟的B组，同组对手包括卫冕季中锦标赛冠军洛杉矶湖人队，以及俄克拉荷马雷霆队、菲尼克斯太阳队和犹他爵士队。
本次比赛共有六个小组，根据规则，每个小组战绩最好的球队以及两支外卡球队，共八支球队将晋级淘汰赛。之后，剩下的四支队伍将前往拉斯维加斯参加半决赛和决赛。
考虑到这可能是凯文·杜兰特和勒布朗·詹姆斯在联盟中赢得重要荣誉的最后机会，马刺队想要在锦标赛中晋级并不容易。然而，同样的动力也将激励着克里斯·保罗，这位效力马刺队的20年老将。
让我们来预测一下这支银黑军团的征程。
11月15日 对阵湖人队
前“单打王”JJ·雷迪克的球队实力强于格雷格·波波维奇，但他并非准备更充分的那个人。
在进攻端，克里斯·保罗和维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)将利用二人配合撕裂对手防线，远投三分，近距离暴扣得分。斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)将在无球状态下灵活跑动，利用空切和底线突破得分，并通过制造对手失误创造进攻机会。湖人队薄弱的外线防守将无法阻止德文·瓦塞尔在踢球和转换进攻中摧毁他们的防线。
在防守端，马刺队可以利用卡斯尔的全场紧逼给对手施压。关键在于限制湖人队的快攻机会。上赛季，这支紫金军团在该项数据上排名联盟第三。
詹姆斯可能会在外线陷入疯狂出手的陷阱，这将是灾难性的，但如果他按照自己平常的篮下进攻风格打球，文班将在他身后严阵以待，随时准备挑战他和安东尼·戴维斯的篮下进攻。
本场比赛的焦点对决是法国天才与浓眉哥之间的较量。前者在力量上无法与后者抗衡，但他2.20米的臂展让他能够在近距离迅速回防，迫使对手投篮不中。如果文班锁死了内线，戴维斯将不得不依靠他那并不稳定的跳投。
最终预测： 马刺队先下一城。
11月19日 对阵雷霆队
文班亚马将会盯防他的对手切特·霍姆格伦，但这对马刺队来说是一场非常艰难的对决。雷霆队现在拥有了以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因这样的内线悍将，他上赛季的进攻篮板数排名联盟第五，并且是纽约尼克斯队禁区防守的一大难题。
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大比任何后卫都更擅长突破内线，他的罚球出手次数 (8.7次)与卢卡·东契奇并列联盟第一。马刺队还必须阻止强壮的后卫杰伦·威廉姆斯冲击油漆区。
在进攻端，文班亚马将会面对霍姆格伦或哈尔滕施泰因的防守，而另一名内线球员将在弱侧游走，伺机投篮。他和克里斯·保罗将会吸引防守球员的注意，为瓦塞尔和哈里森·巴恩斯创造空位投篮机会。
圣安东尼奥的取胜之道在于控球、识破亚历山大的假动作、命中空位投篮以及频繁地站上罚球线，以减缓雷霆队的转换进攻节奏。
最终预测： 雷霆队大胜马刺队。
11月26日 客场挑战爵士队
本场比赛的首要任务是限制劳里·马尔卡宁的内线和外线得分，以及瓦解约翰·科林斯的底线进攻。然而，如果爵士队派出一套由凯恩特·乔治和科林·塞克斯顿两名后卫，加上马尔卡宁、泰勒·亨德里克斯和科林斯组成的超级阵容，他们可能会给马刺队制造麻烦。这套阵容是他们在2023-24赛季使用次数第四多的阵容，并且在对手回合的17.8%中制造了失误，在Cleaning the Glass的数据统计中排名前7%。
此外，马刺队将通过卡位和拼抢篮板球来应对，以防止给爵士队额外的进攻机会。
另一方面，保罗会避免在传球路线中出现失误，但由于他年龄较大、速度较慢、身高不足，包夹战术可能会给他带来麻烦。然而，客队应该能够通过转移球和给文班亚马喂球来迫使对手过度防守，从而暴露三分线外的空当。爵士队上赛季的对手三分球命中率（39.5%）是联盟最高的。
预测： 马刺队取得决定性胜利。
12月3日 客场挑战太阳队
把这个日期圈起来，因为这是文班亚马在奥运会决赛中输给美国队后，第一次有机会向杜兰特和德文·布克复仇。考虑到文班对“死神”杜兰特的崇拜，这位年轻小伙将会像1月4日对阵密尔沃基雄鹿队时那样，打出强硬的表现，尽管那场比赛马刺队惜败。
也不要低估保罗想要在他老东家面前证明自己的决心。
今年，菲尼克斯将由波波维奇的得意门徒蒙蒂·威廉姆斯执教。太阳队将会展现出强大的防守实力，而且与伊戈尔·科科斯科夫时期相比，他们的进攻将会有更多的跑动和无球掩护。
马刺队将紧盯对手的射手，并进行贴身防守，以切断传球路线。卡斯尔将在这方面承担重任，并负责干扰对手的进攻组织。此外，迫使太阳队投出低质量的三分球将使客队获得更多的快攻机会。如果特雷·琼斯在场上的话，一旦接到传球，他的速度将成为致命的武器。
布克和杜兰特在掩护后很可能会在肘区和底线随心所欲地得分。
在进攻端，巴恩斯将会利用身体优势，在错位单打中得分。由于德安德烈·艾顿不擅长防守外线，文班亚马将会面对杜兰特的盯防。然而，与杜兰特进行投篮比赛无异于以卵击石。文班在挡拆配合中将会取得更大的成功。当杜兰特在他身后防守时，他应该能够像在奥运会决赛对阵乔尔·恩比德时那样，先向左移动，然后在右侧篮下完成终结。
战胜对手的关键是让艾顿陷入犯规麻烦，这是有可能的。上赛季，他领到了最多的个人犯规（254次），有16场比赛至少吃到5次犯规，并被罚出场6次。
预测： 太阳队在一场势均力敌的比赛中战胜马刺队。
小组赛最终战绩： 马刺队以2胜2负的战绩结束小组赛，无缘晋级。这将比上赛季的季中锦标赛有所进步，当时马刺队在小组赛中一胜难求，但他们还没有做好晋级的准备。
点击查看原文：Predicting the San Antonio Spurs’ quest for the Emirates NBA Cup
Predicting the San Antonio Spurs’ quest for the Emirates NBA Cup
The path to cup is an arduous one with a tough schedule for the Spurs. Do they have what it takes to get out of their group?
The San Antonio Spurs’ hunt for the Emirates NBA Cup (the award for winning the in-season tournament) is an opportunity to showcase the youngsters’ growth among stiff competition and earn a nice loot as they advance through the gauntlet. They are set in the Western Conference’s Group B with the reigning In-Season Tournament champs Los Angeles Lakers, plus the Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz.
There are six groups and the rules stipulate that eight squads move on to the knockout rounds. Those teams are the ones with the best record per bracket plus two wild card squads. After that, the remaining four outfits head over to the semifinals and conclusion in Las Vegas.
Advancing for the Spurs in the tourney won’t be easy, considering it’s likely Kevin Durant and LeBron James’ last chances to win anything significant in the league. Yet, the same motivations will run through Chris Paul, a 20-year veteran in a gateway role with the Spurs.
Let’s predict how the road goes for the Silver and Black.
Vs. the Lakers on Nov. 15
Former “one-note wonder” JJ Redick has a better team than Gregg Popovich, but he isn’t the more prepared man.
On the attack, Chris Paul and Victor Wembanyama will piece up coverages on two-man actions, hoisting from deep and finishing dunks up close. Stephon Castle will move well without the ball, capitalizing on backdoor and slot cuts and generating offense by forcing turnovers. The Lakers’ weak outside defense won’t stop Devin Vassell from incinerating protections on kickouts and transition plays.
Defensively, the Spurs can pressure the ball in full-court press with Castle. And the key is to limit the Lakers’ fastbreak opportunities. Last season, the Purple and Gold were third in that category.
James might get trigger-happy from deep, which would be disastrous, but if he plays his normal rim-attacking style, Wemby will be in the back to challenge him and Anthony Davis’ rim rolls.
The matchup to watch is the French Usurper against the Brow. The former can’t match strength, but his eight-foot wingspan lets him recover well at close range to force misses. If Wemby shuts down the back, Davis will have to rely on a suspect jumper.
Final prediction: Spurs take first blood.
Vs. the Thunder on Nov. 19
Count on Wembanyana tagging his counterpart, Chet Holmgren, but otherwise, this is an awful matchup for the Spurs. The Thunder now have more muscle surrounding the interior with Isaiah Hartenstein, who recorded the fifth most offensive rebounds last season and was a pest defending the square for the New York Knicks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets into the lane more than any guard and was tied for first in free throw attempts (8.7) with Luka Dončić. The Spurs will also have to stop Jalen Williams, a strong guard, from pressuring the paint.
On offense, Wembanyama will deal with one of Holmgren or Hartenstein with the other roaming as a weak side shot-blocker. He and Chris Paul will attract the corner defenders away from Vasell and Harrison Barnes.
San Antonio’s path to victory is taking care of the ball, staying down on SGA’s pump-fake, converting deep looks and getting to the line often to slow down OKC’s transition attack.
Final prediction: Thunder blast the Spurs.
At the Jazz on Nov. 26
Slowing down Lauri Markkanen’s paint and deep shooting plus neutralizing John Collins’ baseline actions is the priority. Yet, the Jazz could make things problematic if they start a huge lineup of two guards, Keyonte George and Collin Sexton, with Markkanen, Taylor Hendricks and Collins. That lineup was their fourth-most used in 2023-24 and it generated turnovers on 17.8% of opponents’ possessions, good enough for the 93rd percentile, per Cleaning the Glass.
Furthermore, the Spurs will counter by boxing out and getting nasty on the glass to prevent extra chances for the Jazz.
On the other side, Paul will avoid losing the ball in the passing lanes, but since he’s older, slower, and short, blitzes might give him trouble. However, the visitors should be able to force overreactions by swinging the ball and feeding Wembanyama, which will expose the 3-point line. The Jazz conceded the highest percentage (39.5) of opponent trays last season.
Prediction: Spurs win decisively.
At the Suns on Dec. 3
Keep this date circled on the calendar because it’s the first chance Wembanyama has to pay back Durant and Devin Booker for the Olympic final in which Team USA defeated France. And taking into account how much admiration Wemby has for the Slim Reaper (Durant), the young lad is going to make a statement as he did versus the Milwaukee Bucks on Jan. 4, when the Spurs narrowly lost.
Don’t discount CP3’s determination to upstage his old team, either.
This year, Phoenix is commanded by former Pop disciple Mike Budenholzer. The Suns will put out a respectable defense and the attack will have more motion and off-ball movement than with Frank Vogel.
The Spurs will lock and trail the snipers tightly to deny the ball. Castle will be leaned on for this and bothering the up court set-up. Additionally, forcing the Suns into poor-quality 3-pointers will allow the guests to get into the open court more often. If Tre Jones is on the floor, his speed can be a lethal weapon if the outlet pass hits him in stride.
Booker and KD will likely get anything they want at the elbows and baseline when coming off screens.
On offense, Barnes will be a weight bully, scoring at close range against mismatches. Wemby will get shadowed by KD because Jusuf Nurkić isn’t suited for all that outside action. Yet, engaging in a shooting contest with Durant is a fool’s endeavor. Wemby will have more success on pick-and-roll sets. And with Slim on his back, he should be able to pull off moves like his post up early in the gold medal game against Joel Embiid- moving left, then finishing off the glass going right.
A key to victory is putting Nurkić in foul trouble and it’s possible. Last season, he had the most personal fouls (254), playing in 16 matches with at least five penalties and was disqualified from six.
Prediction: Suns pull away from Spurs in a close match.
Final group stage record: The Spurs finish 2-2 and do not advance. It will go better than last season’s in-season tournament, when the Spurs went winless in group play, but they’re not quite ready to advance just yet.
By MateoMayorga, via Pounding The Rock