[PtR] 马刺下赛季赛程分析

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By Jacob Douglas | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-08-17 02:30:04

由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。

休斯顿火箭对阵圣安东尼奥马刺

解析马刺下赛季最重要的比赛和最艰难的赛程

周四，NBA 公布了 2024-25 赛季的赛程。这给了篮球迷们在休赛期预测输赢的机会。圣安东尼奥马刺队的球迷们有机会看看新赛季的赛程对这支比上赛季更被寄予厚望的球队来说有多么艰难。

在引进了老将克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)和哈里森·巴恩斯(Harrison Barnes)，以及前五顺位新秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)后，圣安东尼奥在新赛季将拥有一套更具竞争力的阵容。Draft Kings 将马刺下赛季的胜场数设定为 35.5 场，这可能会让他们无缘附加赛。本赛季他们将早早地经受考验，因为 Positive Residual 估计圣安东尼奥的赛程难度排名联盟第六。

让我们来看看 2024-25 赛季的一些关键赛程和比赛。

至关重要的前十场比赛

马刺的赛季开局很有意思，这可能会让他们有机会以高于五成的胜率开始新赛季。揭幕战他们将在 TNT 全美直播中对阵西部冠军达拉斯独行侠队（Dallas Mavericks），这是他们 21 场全美直播的比赛之一。之后他们将前往客场挑战俄克拉荷马城雷霆队、犹他爵士队、洛杉矶快船队和休斯顿火箭队。在前十场比赛中，圣安东尼奥将两次主场迎战火箭队，以及主场对阵森林狼队、爵士队和开拓者队。

达拉斯、俄克拉荷马城和明尼苏达是西部最好的三支球队。其余的赛程对圣安东尼奥来说都是有机会赢球的比赛。快船队是一个谜，科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)能否在赛季初出场还是个未知数。与波特兰和犹他的三场比赛给了他们在赛季初提升胜率的机会。最大的问题是他们如何应对快速提升的火箭队。在过去的一年左右的时间里，随着维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)加入马刺，狄龙·布鲁克斯(Dillon Brooks)和弗雷德·范弗利特(Fred VanVleet)加入火箭，两队的对抗变得更加激烈。火箭队可能是阻挡马刺以高于五成胜率开始赛季的拦路虎。

踏上征途

圣安东尼奥今年的四场“中立场”比赛将备受关注。1 月 23 日和 25 日，马刺将在法国巴黎迎战印第安纳步行者队。仅仅一个月后，他们将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的穆迪中心迎战菲尼克斯太阳队（Phoenix Suns）和底特律活塞队（Detroit Pistons）。

文班亚马身披马刺球衣重返法国将是 NBA 赛季的亮点之一。除了国际旅行之外，马刺队应该还有一个优势，那就是整个国家都会为这位刚刚为他们带来奥运会银牌的球员加油助威。虽然西迪·西索科(Sidy Cissoko)的角色目前还不清楚，但他也将回到自己的祖国。

奥斯汀的比赛一直受到马刺球迷的热议，但这两场比赛的时间安排在 24-25 赛季还算合适。这两场比赛马刺将作为主队，以分担牛仔竞技表演期间的客场之旅的压力。虽然要在客场征战 12 场比赛，但这其中在奥斯汀的两场比赛距离主场很近，应该会让他们从长达整个 2 月的艰苦客场之旅中得到喘息。

艰难的冲刺阶段

如果马刺想要进入附加赛，他们还有很多工作要做。赛季最后 10 场比赛非常残酷，其中 7 场是客场比赛。他们将分别对阵活塞队、开拓者队和猛龙队，但这几支球队实力较弱。马刺将两次对阵波士顿凯尔特人队、两次对阵金州勇士队、两次对阵克利夫兰骑士队，以及丹佛掘金队、菲尼克斯太阳队和洛杉矶快船队。洛杉矶的情况还不明朗，但其他球队很可能会以某种方式参与到季后赛的争夺中。

在过去的两年里，圣安东尼奥在赛季末段完全退出了季后赛的争夺。如果马刺真的想要争夺一个季后赛席位，他们很可能需要在对阵强敌时偷走几场胜利，以帮助他们在赛季末的西部排名中占据优势。

值得关注的对决

以下是我期待的一些值得关注的比赛：

  • 10 月 30 日客场挑战俄克拉荷马城雷霆队：文班对阵切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)永远是一场有趣的对决。保罗和巴恩斯能帮助他们在与西部强队的较量中取得优势吗？
  • 11 月 15 日 NBA 杯赛主场迎战洛杉矶湖人队（Lakers）：圣安东尼奥将在主场迎战卫冕冠军湖人队，这可能是季中锦标赛中一场定下基调的比赛。
  • 12 月 25 日客场挑战纽约尼克斯队：文班亚马有机会在圣诞大战的麦迪逊广场花园完成救赎。这是一场必看的比赛。
  • 1 月 8 日客场挑战密尔沃基雄鹿队：扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)对阵文班亚马是一场堪比哥斯拉大战金刚的比赛。我迫不及待地想看到这两位球员在未来几年里的竞争。
  • 2 月 5 日客场挑战亚特兰大老鹰队：现在就开始考虑 2025 年的选秀权永远不会太早。击败老鹰队意味着在竞争激烈的 2025 年 NBA 选秀大会 上获得一个更好的顺位。
  • 3 月 10 日和 12 日主场迎战达拉斯独行侠队：如果马刺正在为季后赛而战，那么这个主场对阵独行侠队的系列赛应该会非常精彩。这两场比赛将是在赛季末对阵州内对手的关键之战。

一些数据分析

以下是关于 24-25 赛季赛程的一些有趣细节：

  • 圣安东尼奥下赛季将在 11 场比赛中拥有休息时间优势，排名联盟第五。这意味着在超过八分之一的比赛中，他们将比对手拥有更多的休息时间。马刺将有 9 场比赛处于休息时间劣势，即对手比他们拥有更多的休息时间。
  • 马刺本赛季将进行 15 场背靠背比赛，排名联盟第二。
  • 圣安东尼奥本赛季的 国内 旅行距离将达到 43,497 英里。这还不包括在巴黎的比赛。

你怎么看？根据赛程安排，马刺的胜场数会超过还是低于预测的 35.5 场？本赛季他们有机会进入季后赛吗？

点击查看原文：Spurs’ schedule analysis for next season

Spurs’ schedule analysis for next season

Houston Rockets v San Antonio Spurs

Breaking down the biggest games and toughest stretches in the Spurs upcoming season.

On Thursday the NBA released the schedule for the 2024-25 season. It gave basketball junkies their fix as they go through the schedule, estimating wins and losses. San Antonio Spurs fans got a chance to see how tough the schedule will be for a team with higher expectations than last season.

San Antonio heads into the year with a more competitive roster after adding veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes, and top-5 pick, Stephon Castle. Draft Kings has set the Spurs’ win total for next year at 35.5, which would likely leave them on the outside looking in of the Play-In Tournament. They’ll be tested early and often this season, as Positive Residual estimates San Antonio has the 6th toughest schedule in the league.

Let’s take a look at some of the key stretches and games in the 2024-25 schedule.

An important first 10 games

The Spurs have an interesting start to the season that could put them in a position to start the season above .500. They’ll play the Western Conference Champion Dallas Mavericks on TNT, one of their 21 nationally televised games, in the opener. They’ll go on the road to Oklahoma City, Utah, Los Angeles to play the Clippers and Houston. San Antonio will host the Rockets twice, the Timberwolves, Jazz and Trail Blazers in the first ten games.

Dallas, OKC and Minnesota are three of the best teams in the West. The rest of the schedule included winnable games for San Antonio. The Clippers are a mystery and Kawhi Leonard is a question mark to play early in the season. Three matchups with Portland and Utah give them a chance to pad the win total early. The biggest question is how they fare against the rapidly improving Rockets. This rivalry has gained some steam in the last year or so, with the addition of Victor Wembanyama to the Spurs, and Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet to the Rockets. Houston may be the team standing between the Spurs and an above-.500 start to the season.

Hitting the road

Much will be made about San Antonio’s four “neutral site” games this year. On January 23rd and 25th, the Spurs will face the Indiana Pacers in Paris, France. Then just a month later, they’ll play the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas.

Wembanyama’s return to France in a Spurs jersey will be one of the highlights of the NBA season. Other than the international travel, the Spurs should have the advantage of an entire nation rooting on the player that just brought them an Olympic silver medal. While his role is unclear right now, Sidy Cissoko will also be making a return to his home country.

The Austin games have been hotly debated by Spurs fans, but they come at a fairly opportune time in the 24-25 season. The Silver and Black will be the home team for two games to split up their rodeo road trip. It’ll be 12 games away from San Antonio, but the two games in Austin should be close enough to home that they feel like a reprieve from the grueling road stretch that lasts essentially the entire month of February.

A tough last leg

San Antonio will have its work cut out for them if they want to reach the Play-In Tournament. The last 10 games of the season are brutal, with 7 of them coming on the road. There will be reprieves against Detroit, Portland and Toronto, but the other opponents are tough. The Spurs will play Boston, Golden State twice, Cleveland twice, Denver, Phoenix and the Clippers. Los Angeles is a bit of a wild card, but the other teams will likely factor in the playoff race somehow.

In the last two years, San Antonio has been completely out of the playoff picture in the final stretch of the season. If the Spurs are indeed contenders for a playoff spot, they will likely need to steal a few games against tough opponents to help their standing in the West late in the season.

Matchups to watch

A few notable games that I’m looking forward to include:

  • October 30th in Oklahoma City: Wemby vs. Chet Holmgren is always a fun matchup. Will CP3 and Barnes help them compete against the best in the West?
  • NBA Cup game, November 15th vs. the Lakers: San Antonio hosts the defending NBA Cup champs in what could be a tone-setting game for the In Season Tournament.
  • December 25th in New York: Wembanyama has a chance to redeem himself at Madison Square Garden on Christmas. This is a must-watch game.
  • January 8th in Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Wembanyama is a kaiju matchup that rivals Godzilla and King Kong. I can’t wait to watch these two compete for the years to come.
  • February 5th in Atlanta: It’s never too early to think about those 2025 picks. Beating the Hawks means a better pick in a stacked 2025 NBA Draft.
  • March 10th and 12th vs. the Mavericks: If the Spurs are competing for the Playoffs, this homestand against the Mavs should have a lot of excitement. These would be meaningful games late in the season against an in-state rival.

Some analytics

Here are some interesting details to remember for the 24-25 schedule:

  • San Antonio will have a rest advantage in 11 games next year, 5th most in the NBA. That means they’ll have more rest than another team going into over an 8th of their games. The Spurs will have 9 rest disadvantage games, where teams have more rest than them.
  • The Spurs will play 15 back-to-back games this season, second most in the league.
  • San Antonio will travel 43,497 miles this year domestically. This doesn’t account for games in Paris.

What do you think? Based on the schedule, will the Spurs go over or under their projected 35.5 win total? Is a Playoff berth in the cards this season?

By Jacob Douglas, via Pounding The Rock