由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
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尼尔·佩恩(Neil Paine) 2024年7月27日 上午7:45 （美国东部时间）
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尼尔·佩恩利用数据和分析撰写体育文章。他曾任 FiveThirtyEight 的体育编辑。
并非参加 2024 年男子奥运会篮球比赛的每位球员都能在 NBA 中展现出他们平时的水平，也不是每位 NBA 球星都会出现在这届奥运会上。（说的就是你，科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)。）但由于美国队一如既往地是金牌热门——尽管在预选赛中输给了南苏丹——以及国际球员在联盟中越来越突出，因此在评估奥运会参赛阵容时，NBA 的表现比以往任何时候都更加重要。
考虑到这一点，我们根据球员预计的 2024-25 赛季 NBA 表现对参加巴黎奥运会的顶级球员进行了排名。
排名方法：我们将使用预测 RAPTOR 值作为衡量球员效率的指标，因为它将个人数据与球员在场上对球队的影响结合起来。这些预测主要基于 Basketball-Reference 的简单预测系统；过去三个赛季在 NBA 打过球的每位球员都会根据他们在这几年（根据年龄调整后的）预测 RAPTOR 值获得进攻和防守方面的预测。您可以在此处阅读有关计算细节的信息。
需要注意的是，这些预测旨在告诉我们一名球员在整个 2024-25 NBA 赛季中的表现。由于奥运会比 2025 年 NBA 总决赛早得多，年龄特别小或特别大的球员在下赛季结束时的年龄轨迹可能与现在不同。例如，这就是勒布朗·詹姆斯（他将在下赛季中期年满 40 岁）的排名可能低于我们根据他上赛季的表现所预期的排名的原因。但与此同时，参加奥运会的老将们的休赛期被压缩了，所以他们可能已经感受到了年龄的影响。
无论如何，这些预测应该能告诉我们谁将在下赛季的 NBA 赛季中取得巨大成功——这对奥运会来说也应该适用。
让我们从榜单的底部开始我们的前 20 名倒计时，然后逐步向上推进。
20. 约什·吉迪(Josh Giddey)，澳大利亚
2024-25 赛季年龄： 22 岁 | 芝加哥公牛队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +0.6 | 防守： +0.2 | 总分： +0.9
澳大利亚国家队在巴黎奥运会上有很多 NBA 球员可供选择，包括丹特·埃克萨姆(Dante Exum)、戴森·丹尼尔斯(Dyson Daniels)、乔什·格林(Josh Green)、乔·英格尔斯(Joe Ingles)和帕蒂·米尔斯(Patty Mills)，他们将第五次参加奥运会。
但预测下赛季表现最好的是 21 岁的吉迪，他在上赛季打出了职业生涯最好的赛季，获得了 3.8 的胜利贡献值。吉迪作为一名身高 6 英尺 8 英寸的球员，他的助攻率（26.6%）仍然令人印象深刻，得分率（每百回合 23.6 分）和篮板率（14.2%）也高于平均水平。
不过，吉迪上赛季取得了重大进步，他作为一名射手——他的罚球命中率和三分球命中率都创下了职业生涯新高，分别为 81% 和 34%——以及作为一名防守者——他的盖帽率和防守预测 RAPTOR 值都创下了职业生涯新高。吉迪在 6 月份被俄克拉荷马城雷霆队交易到芝加哥公牛队，换来了亚历克斯·卡鲁索(Alex Caruso)，而奥运会将是他展示更多进步的机会。
19. 约瑟·阿尔瓦拉多(Jose Alvarado)，波多黎各
2024-25 赛季年龄： 26 岁 | 新奥尔良鹈鹕队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： -0.7 | 防守： +1.6 | 总分： +0.9
由于伤病和不太引人注目的得分数据，阿尔瓦拉多很容易被人忽视（当他没有和其他球员制造麻烦的时候）。但只要保持健康，他就是 NBA 最好的防守型控球后卫之一，尽管他只有 6 英尺高。（那些不断将他与帕特里克·贝弗利(Patrick Beverley)相提并论的人是有道理的。）在职业生涯至少出场 3000 分钟的现役球员中，只有马蒂斯·塞布尔(Matisse Thybulle)、小加里·佩顿(Gary Payton II)和克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)的职业生涯抢断率高于阿尔瓦拉多的 3.0%——“抢断狂魔阿尔瓦拉多”名副其实——只有小佩顿、卡鲁索和德安东尼·梅尔顿(De’Anthony Melton)的防守预测 RAPTOR 值高于阿尔瓦拉多的 +2.0。
虽然他在三分线内得分不多，但阿尔瓦拉多在处理球方面很少犯错——他的防守弥补了他在进攻端的不足。
18. 鲁迪·戈贝尔(Rudy Gobert)，法国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 32 岁 | 明尼苏达森林狼队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： -1.1 | 防守： +2.1 | 总分： +1.0
说到防守，戈贝尔将在内线为法国队保驾护航，这支 2020 年奥运会银牌得主将试图再次在奥运会上走得更远。也许令人惊讶的是，戈贝尔在东京奥运会的六场比赛中只盖了五个帽，盖帽率为 3.2%。（相比之下，戈贝尔在 NBA 的职业生涯盖帽率为 5.8%。）然而，这位 2023-24 赛季 NBA 最佳防守球员仍然是本届奥运会上最有影响力的防守者之一，他在球场上的预测 RAPTOR 值为 +2.1。
进攻是这支东道主球队需要担心的地方——在奥运会前的四场热身赛中，法国队连续输掉了四场比赛，每场比赛的得分都没有超过 82 分——而戈贝尔在进攻端也帮不上什么忙。但在防守端，戈贝尔帮助法国队在上届奥运会上成为四强中场均失分最少的球队（85.8 分）。
17. 巴姆·阿德巴约(Bam Adebayo)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 27 岁 | 迈阿密热火队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +0.1 | 防守： +1.1 | 总分： +1.2
阿德巴约将第二次参加奥运会，他在三年前的东京奥运会上场均得到 6.3 分和 5.7 个篮板。奇怪的是，自那以后，他的每 82 场比赛的 RAPTOR 胜利贡献值每个赛季都在下降——从 2020-21 赛季的 7.0 下降到 6.0，然后是 5.5，最近在 2023-24 赛季下降到 4.6——尽管阿德巴约正处于他的巅峰年龄段，并且在过去几年里基本上保持了健康。
但阿德巴约在这几个赛季里也多次入选 NBA 全明星阵容和最佳防守阵容，他将是美国队前场轮换阵容中最重要的防守者之一，同时也能贡献得分和篮板。
16. 斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 36 岁 | 金州勇士队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +2.3 | 防守： -1.0 | 总分： +1.2
库里的胜利贡献值连续三个赛季都在下降，他的 2024-25 赛季预测防守 RAPTOR 值是美国队中最低的。但这仍然是库里第一次代表美国队参加奥运会，这将是一件特别的事情。抛开他的年龄和防守上的局限性不谈，库里仍然是这项运动中最有天赋的得分手之一。
他也是上赛季 NBA 中产量最高的三分射手，每百回合出手 7.1 次，命中率为 40.8%。这支美国队需要库里的投篮。除了德里克·怀特(Derrick White)，也许还有朱·霍勒迪(Jrue Holiday)，库里是上赛季唯一一个既能保证高产量又能保持高命中率的三分球射手。
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史蒂夫·科尔(Steve Kerr)：美国队是时候“专注”了
史蒂夫·科尔分享了美国队在巴黎奥运会上备战首场对阵塞尔维亚的比赛时是如何专注起来的。
15. 维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)，法国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 21 岁 | 圣安东尼奥马刺队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： -1.4 | 防守： +2.9 | 总分： +1.5
值得注意的是，四届最佳防守球员戈贝尔并不是本届奥运会上预测 2024-25 赛季 RAPTOR 值最高的防守者——这一荣誉属于他的队友、身高 7 英尺 4 英寸的文班，这位年仅 20 岁的球员已经确立了自己作为 NBA 最可怕的防守球员之一的地位。他上赛季 10% 的盖帽率和 2% 的抢断率组合在 NBA 历史上尚属首次；当他在场时，马刺队的防守效率也提高了 5.8 分（基本上相当于上赛季联盟最佳防守和平均防守之间的差距）。
预测 RAPTOR 值对文班的进攻并不那么看好——由于他的真实命中率低，失误多，他是上赛季联盟中进攻效率最低的球员之一——但如果以上赛季后半段的表现作为参考，那么他在进攻端的表现应该会迅速提高。也许我们甚至会在他的家乡奥运会上看到文班的球技不断提升。
14. 贾马尔·穆雷(Jamal Murray)，加拿大
2024-25 赛季年龄： 27 岁 | 丹佛掘金队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +2.3 | 防守： -0.1 | 总分： +2.1
在拥有众多 NBA 球星的加拿大队中，穆雷是他的国家队在金牌赔率榜上位居美国队之后排名第二的最大原因之一。一年之前，穆雷在季后赛中表现出色（预测 RAPTOR 值为 +4.5），帮助丹佛掘金队赢得了队史上的第一个 NBA 总冠军，之后他又在单赛季中获得了职业生涯最高的胜利贡献值（5.9），同时他的场均得分（21.2 分）、场均助攻（6.5 次）和三分球命中率（42.5%）都创下了职业生涯新高。
27 岁的穆雷正处于职业生涯的巅峰期，这也使得加拿大队在本届奥运会上成为一个真正的威胁。
13. 凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 36 岁 | 菲尼克斯太阳队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +2.3 | 防守： -0.1 | 总分： +2.2
看到杜兰特排名如此之低，甚至没有进入奥运会球员排名的前 12 名，可能会让人感到惊讶。但至少以他的标准来看，他刚刚经历了一个效率低于往常的赛季。虽然杜兰特基本上保持了健康，出场 75 场比赛，这是自 2019-20 赛季因伤病困扰而赛季报销之后，他第一次打满这么多比赛，但他在 NBA 的每百回合得分榜上仍然只排名第 12 位。他的进攻效率、助攻率和在场上的影响力也有所下降。
35 岁的杜兰特，他的预测 RAPTOR 值（+3.2）是他自 20 岁进入 NBA 的第二个赛季以来的最低值……尽管在一个“低迷”的赛季里，他的胜利贡献值仍然排名第 17 位，这证明了他的伟大。我们可以保证，在本届奥运会上，没有人愿意去防守杜兰特。
12. 勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 40 岁 | 洛杉矶湖人队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +2.6 | 防守： -0.2 | 总分： +2.4
与杜兰特不同的是，詹姆斯的表现并没有出现任何下滑的迹象，尽管他在 12 月份就满 39 岁了。（如果说有什么不同的话，那就是他的表现更好了，他的 RAPTOR 值是他自 2020 年以来的最高值。）但他 2024-25 赛季的预测数据与杜兰特不相上下，因为我们很少看到球员在 40 岁或以上还能保持明显高于平均水平的状态。
尽管这很难想象，但在未来的某个赛季，勒布朗将不再是我们过去 20 年来所期待的那种伟大的球员。不过，就目前而言，美国队仍然指望他能像往常一样保持传奇色彩——到目前为止，一切顺利。
11. 德里克·怀特(Derrick White)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 30 岁 | 波士顿凯尔特人队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +1.8 | 防守： +1.2 | 总分： +3.0
虽然我们中的一些人已经关注德里克·怀特很长时间了，但怀特凭借他在凯尔特人队赢得 NBA 总冠军的季后赛表现，终于得到了更多人的认可。本月早些时候，当伦纳德退出美国队时，怀特在最后一刻替补入选，他当然无法与伦纳德相提并论。
但他几乎可以用高水平的全能表现来弥补这一点，从投三分球和组织进攻到打出侵略性的防守。在他职业生涯最好的赛季（9.4 的胜利贡献值）之后，现在是怀特在奥运会上留下自己印记的最佳时机。
10. 弗朗茨·瓦格纳(Franz Wagner)，德国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 23 岁 | 奥兰多魔术队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +2.6 | 防守： +0.5 | 总分： +3.1
预测 RAPTOR 值非常看好瓦格纳，他在我们 NBA 季后赛首轮球员排名中也出人意料地高居榜首。
但并不是每一位 22 岁的球员都能达到瓦格纳上赛季所达到的成就。他与杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)、凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)、特雷西·麦克格雷迪(Tracy McGrady)和凯文·加内特(Kevin Garnett)一起，成为自 1976 年 NBA 与 ABA 合并以来仅有的几位在每百回合得分、助攻率、失误率、篮板率和防守 RAPTOR 值方面都排在 NBA 球员前 60% 或更高的球员。
在这种情况下，瓦格纳最近获得的大合同续约也就不足为奇了，看到他与他的兄弟莫里茨(Moritz)以及 NBA 球员丹尼斯·施罗德(Dennis Schroder)和丹尼尔·泰斯(Daniel Theis)一起在德国国家队的表现，将会是一件令人兴奋的事情。
9. 安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 31 岁 | 洛杉矶湖人队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +1.8 | 防守： +1.3 | 总分： +3.1
对于湖人队——现在是美国队——来说，戴维斯上赛季保持了足够的健康，打了职业生涯最高的 76 场比赛，并贡献了 10.0 的胜利贡献值，这是他自 2020 年在湖人队首秀赛季赢得总冠军以来的最高值，这是一件值得高兴的事情。毫无疑问，戴维斯在健康的时候有能力在攻防两端影响比赛，而这些预测数据仍然认为他是联盟中最出色的攻防兼备的球星之一。
作为美国队豪华内线阵容中的一员，戴维斯将扮演比他在 2012 年伦敦奥运会上作为一名新秀替补出场场均得到 3.7 分时更重要的角色，当时美国队获得了金牌。
8. 德文·布克(Devin Booker)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 28 岁 | 菲尼克斯太阳队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +3.9 | 防守： -0.6 | 总分： +3.3
在太阳队的超级球队失败之后，看到布克将他的爆炸性得分能力用在一支可能真正赢得胜利的球队身上，这将是一件好事。布克是本届奥运会上预测进攻 RAPTOR 值最高的球员之一，因为他上赛季在得分效率和产量方面都做到了极致；他是仅有的六位每百回合至少得到 36 分，同时真实命中率至少达到 61% 的球员之一。再加上联盟第 13 高的助攻率，布克拥有让一支球队的进攻运转起来的所有工具。
他的防守远非出色——他在上赛季所有符合条件的后卫中，防守 RAPTOR 值排名倒数第 20 位——但布克在进攻端的多才多艺让他非常适合像奥运会这样的比赛，与无数其他球星并肩作战。
7. 安东尼·爱德华兹(Anthony Edwards)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 23 岁 | 明尼苏达森林狼队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +2.5 | 防守： +1.0 | 总分： +3.5
爱德华兹的 NBA 生涯轨迹正在上升，他在 2023-24 赛季打出了职业生涯最好的赛季（9.9 的胜利贡献值），帮助森林狼队打进了季后赛，并跻身联盟最佳球队之列。他是美国队中最年轻的球员（他将在 8 月 5 日，也就是淘汰赛开始的前一天年满 23 岁），但爱德华兹确实有在这个舞台上打球的经验，他在去年夏天的篮球世界杯上为美国队场均得到 18.9 分。美国队在那届世界杯上令人失望地获得了第四名，但这对爱德华兹后来的成功起到了跳板的作用。
现在，他有机会向美国篮球史上一些最伟大的球员学习，并在他们身边赢得出场时间，让自己成为美国队未来的基石。
6. 泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿(Tyrese Haliburton)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 24 岁 | 印第安纳步行者队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +5.0 | 防守： -0.3 | 总分： +4.8
说到 2023-24 赛季 NBA 的爆发球员，哈利伯顿凭借着助攻王（场均 10.9 次助攻）、入选 NBA 最佳阵容（第三阵容）、在季中锦标赛和季后赛中都打进了决赛以及职业生涯最高的 9.7 的胜利贡献值，继续向联盟顶级球员的行列迈进。
哈利伯顿在这里领先于爱德华兹，因为他只比爱德华兹大一点点，而且他在上赛季的进攻效率和助攻率都要高得多，对球队的场上影响力也更大。爱德华兹是更好的防守者，不过从步行者队的整体防守挣扎来看，哈利伯顿的防守评价并没有我们想象中那么差，而且他在进攻端的全能效率数据是除了尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokić)之外我们从未见过的。
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哪些国家队能在奥运会篮球比赛中挑战美国队？
来看看有哪些挑战者阻碍美国队在 2024 年巴黎夏季奥运会上赢得金牌。
5. 杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 26 岁 | 波士顿凯尔特人队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +3.9 | 防守： +0.8 | 总分： +4.8
塔图姆刚刚加冕 NBA 总冠军，这对一名数据已经说明一切的球员来说，是一种肯定。就像他在凯尔特人队一样，塔图姆是美国队的万能钥匙，他能够在非常高的水平上扮演多个角色和位置。
作为这些预测数据的数据集的一部分，塔图姆上赛季在波士顿凯尔特人队有 72% 的出场时间是在打大前锋，这是他职业生涯中第二高的比例。在一支已经拥有众多优秀前场球员的球队里，他不需要打那么多大前锋，这可能会让塔图姆释放出更多在外线的技术——比如他在 2021 年奥运会上领先美国队的每回合三分球出手次数（不过他这次的助攻率可能会比上次高）。
4. 乔尔·恩比德(Joel Embiid)，美国
2024-25 赛季年龄： 30 岁 | 费城76人队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +4.9 | 防守： +0.6 | 总分： +5.5
恩比德在去年 10 月决定代表美国队——为了纪念他的儿子出生在美国——而不是法国队和他另一个国籍喀麦隆队，改变了这份榜单的格局。恩比德让美国队在这份榜单上又增加了一个高排名（美国队在前 10 名中占据了 6 个席位，在前 15 名中占据了 9 个席位），而不是由国际球员占据前四名，包括所有预测 RAPTOR 值达到 +5 或更高的球员。
恩比德在比赛的各个方面都展现了他的 7 英尺身高带来的统治力，包括盖帽和篮板，但即使在一支充满得分手的球队里，他也是最会得分的那一个。在现役球员中，没有人比恩比德的每百回合 42.5 分的职业生涯平均得分更高，这让他成为本届奥运会上最会得分的球员。
3. 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)，希腊
2024-25 赛季年龄： 30 岁 | 密尔沃基雄鹿队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +5.2 | 防守： +0.8 | 总分： +5.9
希腊队只有一名现役 NBA 球员。但如果你在这份榜单上只能选择一名球员，那么你很难找到比自 2017-18 赛季以来，每个 NBA 赛季的 MVP 评选都至少排名前四的球员更好的选择了。
不幸的是，我们没有看到字母哥在季后赛中出场一分钟，因为他遭遇了小腿拉伤，但他现在回到了巴黎奥运会，事实上，他是希腊代表团在开幕式上的旗手。
字母哥仍然处于他的巅峰期，是联盟攻防两端最具统治力的球员之一，看到他第一次参加奥运会将是一件令人高兴的事情，因为希腊队自 2008 年奥运会以来就再也没有获得过奥运会资格。投篮仍然是字母哥最大的弱点——他上赛季的每百回合三分球命中数是他自 2015-16 赛季以来的最低值——但这并没有阻止他在每百回合得分榜上排名第三，在进攻 RAPTOR 值上排名第三。
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字母哥用新鞋给希腊奥运会队友一个惊喜
雄鹿队超级球星扬尼斯·阿德托昆博用他最新的耐克球鞋给了他的希腊队友一个惊喜。
2. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)，加拿大
2024-25 赛季年龄： 26 岁 | 俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +5.6 | 防守： +0.9 | 总分： +6.4
尽管他的雷霆队在季后赛中输给了达拉斯独行侠队，但吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在 MVP 级别的崛起是 2023-24 赛季 NBA 最好的故事之一。现在，他是加拿大篮球队的门面，这支球队在国际赛场上也提升了自己的形象。
加拿大队的几乎每一位球员都是 NBA 球员，其中很多人都很优秀，即使他们没有进入这份榜单。（对安德鲁·内姆哈德(Andrew Nembhard)、尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克(Nickeil Alexander-Walker)、RJ·巴雷特(RJ Barrett)和卢根茨·多尔特(Luguentz Dort)表示抱歉。）不过，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大是最好的，他在 2023-24 赛季打出了职业生涯最高的 +8.8 的预测 RAPTOR 值和 16.4 的胜利贡献值。
这些预测数据认为他在 2024-25 赛季的表现会有一些回归平均水平，但吉尔杰斯-亚历山大还很年轻，他的基本功还有提升的空间，包括他的精英级得分、效率、传球和防守。
在上赛季与亚历山大同龄的 10 个最相似的赛季中，有 4 个属于迈克尔·乔丹(Michael Jordan)，2 个属于勒布朗·詹姆斯，2 个属于德维恩·韦德(Dwyane Wade)，1 个属于科怀·伦纳德，1 个属于科比·布莱恩特(Kobe Bryant)。这就是吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在很短的时间内就成为的那种球员。
1. 尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokić)，塞尔维亚
2024-25 赛季年龄： 29 岁 | 丹佛掘金队
2024-25 赛季预测数据：
进攻： +6.4 | 防守： +1.4 | 总分： +7.9
约基奇预计会成为本届奥运会上最好的 NBA 球员，这真的令人惊讶吗？这位卫冕联盟 MVP 在过去四个赛季中三次获得 MVP——而 2023-24 赛季是他迄今为止总价值最高的一个赛季，他在 79 场比赛中获得了职业生涯最高的 17.9 的胜利贡献值。对高级数据如何评价约基奇的一种常见批评是，他的防守总是被评价得非常好（他在这里的预测防守 RAPTOR 值排名第五），这与他长期以来的声誉和眼观结果不符。
但约基奇在防守端非常积极——在所有符合条件的球员中，他是仅有的 20 位抢断率和盖帽率都排名前 30% 的球员之一——他帮助掘金队的防守效率排名第八，当他在场时，球队的防守效率有很大的负差值（在试图限制对手得分时，这是一个好的数据）。这是约基奇成为历史上最容易被误解的超级球星之一的另一个原因，他将在巴黎奥运会上第二次展现他的实力。
遗憾落榜
朱·霍勒迪(Jrue Holiday)，美国
博格丹·博格达诺维奇(Bogdan Bogdanovic)，塞尔维亚
莫里茨·瓦格纳(Moritz Wagner)，德国
卢根茨·多尔特(Luguentz Dort)，加拿大
尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克(Nickeil Alexander-Walker)，加拿大
点击查看原文：Projecting the best NBA players at the Olympics: Where do Jokic, LeBron and Giannis land?
Projecting the best NBA players at the Olympics: Where do Jokic, LeBron and Giannis land?
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Neil PaineJul 27, 2024, 07:45 AM ET
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Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
Not every player in the 2024 men’s Olympic basketball tournament does his usual work in the NBA, nor is every single NBA star present at these games. (Looking at you, Kawhi Leonard.) But with the U.S. in its typical perch as gold medal favorites – pre-tourney hiccups against South Sudan notwithstanding – and international players gaining more prominence in the league, NBA performance is as important as ever when assessing the Olympic field.
With that in mind, we rank the top players at the Paris Olympics based on their projected 2024-25 NBA performance.
How this works: We’ll be using Estimated RAPTOR as our measure of player effectiveness, since it incorporates individual stats with a player’s effect on his team’s play while on the court. The projections are largely modeled off of Basketball-Reference’s Simple Projection System; every player who played in the NBA over the past three seasons receives a forecast on offense and defense based on his (age-adjusted) Estimated RAPTOR in those years. You can read about the details of the calculation here.
One caveat is that these projections are designed to tell us how good a player will be over the entirety of the 2024-25 NBA season. Since the Olympics are happening much sooner than the 2025 NBA Finals, players who are particularly young or old might be on a different aging trajectory by the end of next season than they are now. For instance, this is why LeBron James (who’ll turn 40 in the middle of next season) might rank lower than we’d expect based on his play last season. But at the same time, veterans playing in the Olympics have had a compressed offseason, so they might be feeling the effects of their age already.
Either way, these forecasts should tell us who is poised for big seasons in the NBA next season – and that should hold true for the Olympics as well.
Let’s begin our top 20 countdown at the bottom of the list and work our way to the top.
20. Josh Giddey, Australia
2024-25 age: 22 | Chicago Bulls
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +0.6 | Defense: +0.2 | Overall: +0.9
The Boomers have plenty of NBA players to choose from in Paris, including Dante Exum, Dyson Daniels, Josh Green, Joe Ingles and Patty Mills, who will be making his fifth Olympics appearance.
But the one with the best projection for next season is Giddey, 21, who is coming off his best season as a pro with 3.8 Wins Above Replacement. Giddey continues to produce an impressive assist rate (26.6%) for a 6-foot-8 player to go with above average rates of scoring (23.6 points per 100 possessions) and rebounding (14.2% rebound).
The big steps forward for Giddey last season, though, came as a shooter – he made career highs of 81% from the line and 34% from deep – and a defender, with a career-best block rate and defensive Estimated RAPTOR. Giddey was traded from the Oklahoma City Thunder to Chicago for Alex Caruso in June, and the Olympics will be a chance for him to showcase even more improvement.
19. Jose Alvarado, Puerto Rico
2024-25 age: 26 | New Orleans Pelicans
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: -0.7 | Defense: +1.6 | Overall: +0.9
Because of injuries and less than eye-catching scoring stats, Alvarado has a tendency to fly under the radar (when he’s not stirring up trouble with other players). But when healthy, he is one of the NBA’s best defensive point guards despite standing a mere 6 feet. (Those constant Pat Beverley comparisons are onto something.) Among active players with a minimum of 3,000 career minutes, only Matisse Thybulle, Gary Payton II and Chris Paul have a higher career steal rate than Alvarado’s 3.0% mark – “Grand Theft Alvarado” indeed – and only Payton II, Caruso and De’Anthony Melton have a higher defensive Estimated RAPTOR than Alvarado at +2.0.
While he isn’t much of a scorer inside the 3-point arc, Alvarado doesn’t make many mistakes with the ball – and his defense makes up for what he lacks on offense.
18. Rudy Gobert, France
2024-25 age: 32 | Minnesota Timberwolves
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: -1.1 | Defense: +2.1 | Overall: +1.0
Speaking of defense, Gobert will be anchoring the interior for France as the 2020 silver medalists try to make another deep tournament run. Perhaps surprisingly, Gobert blocked only five shots in six games during the Tokyo Games, yielding a block rate of 3.2%. (For comparison, Gobert’s career rate in the NBA is 5.8%.) However, the NBA’s 2023-24 Defensive Player of the Year still figures to be one of the highest-impact defenders in the tournament, with a projected Estimated RAPTOR of +2.1 at that end of the court.
The offense is the concern for the home team – France failed to score more than 82 points in any of its four consecutive losses during friendlies leading up to the Olympics – and that’s an area Gobert isn’t much help. But on defense, Gobert helped France to be the semifinalist who allowed the fewest points per game of any team (85.8) in the last Olympics.
17. Bam Adebayo, United States
2024-25 age: 27 | Miami Heat
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +0.1 | Defense: +1.1 | Overall: +1.2
Adebayo is making his second Olympic appearance after averaging 6.3 points and 5.7 rebounds in Tokyo three years ago. Oddly, his RAPTOR WAR per 82 team games has gone down each season since – from 7.0 in 2020-21 to 6.0, then 5.5 and, most recently, 4.6 in 2023-24 – despite Adebayo entering his prime age range and largely staying healthy the past few years.
But Adebayo has also been a multitime All-Star and All-Defensive Team fixture in the NBA over those seasons, and he’ll be one of the most important defenders in the American frontcourt rotation while also chipping in points and boards.
16. Stephen Curry, United States
2024-25 age: 36 | Golden State Warriors
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.3 | Defense: -1.0 | Overall: +1.2
Coming off his three-year trend of declining WAR, Curry carries the U.S.'s lowest projected defensive Estimated RAPTOR for the 2024-25 NBA season. But it will nonetheless be special to see Curry play for Team USA in the Olympics for the first time. And putting aside his age and defensive limitations, Curry remains one of the game’s most skilled scorers.
He was also the best 3-point shooter in the NBA by volume last season, making 7.1 shots from deep per 100 team possessions at a 40.8% clip. This U.S. roster needs Curry’s shooting. Along with Derrick White and maybe Jrue Holiday, Curry is the only 3-point marksman who mixed high volume and accuracy from deep last season.
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Steve Kerr: Time for Team USA to ‘lock in’
Steve Kerr shares how it’s time for Team USA to lock in as it prepares for its first matchup in Paris against Serbia.
15. Victor Wembanyama, France
2024-25 age: 21 | San Antonio Spurs
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: -1.4 | Defense: +2.9 | Overall: +1.5
Remarkably, four-time DPOY winner Gobert isn’t the top defender by projected 2024-25 RAPTOR at the Olympics – that honor belongs to his 7-foot-4 teammate Wemby, who at age 20 has already established himself as one of the NBA’s most feared players on defense. His combination of a 10% block rate and 2% steal rate last season was a first in NBA history; the Spurs’ defense also improved by 5.8 points per 100 (basically the difference between the league’s best defense and an average one last season) when he was on the court.
Estimated RAPTOR is less enamored with Wemby’s offense – between his low True Shooting Percentage and many turnovers, he was among the league’s least efficient players last season – but that area of his game should improve quickly if the second half of last season was any indication. Maybe we’ll even see the continued expansion of Wemby’s skills at his hometown Olympics.
14. Jamal Murray, Canada
2024-25 age: 27 | Denver Nuggets
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.3 | Defense: -0.1 | Overall: +2.1
On a Canadian roster stacked with NBA talent, Murray is one of the biggest reasons why his national team ranks second behind the U.S. on gold medal odds. A year after Murray helped Denver win its first NBA title with a tremendous postseason performance (+4.5 Estimated RAPTOR), he followed that with the most WAR of his career in a single season (5.9) to go with career highs in points (21.2) and assists per game (6.5) and 3-point percentage (42.5).
Murray, 27, is at the peak of his abilities, and that makes Team Canada a real threat in this tournament.
13. Kevin Durant, United States
2024-25 age: 36 | Phoenix Suns
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.3 | Defense: -0.1 | Overall: +2.2
It might be surprising to see Durant ranked so low, outside the top 12 players in the Olympic field. But he is coming off a less effective season than usual, by his standards at least. While Durant stayed mostly healthy, appearing in 75 games for the first time since the injury-plagued end to his 2019-20 season, he still ranked 12th in the NBA in points scored per 100 team possessions. He also saw his offensive efficiency, assist rate and measures of on-court impact slip.
Durant, 35, posted his lowest Estimated RAPTOR (+3.2) since he was a 20-year-old NBA sophomore … though it’s a testament to his greatness that he still ranked 17th by WAR in a “down” season. We can all but guarantee nobody at the Olympics is looking forward to having to guard Durant.
12. LeBron James, United States
2024-25 age: 40 | Los Angeles Lakers
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.6 | Defense: -0.2 | Overall: +2.4
Unlike Durant, James’ play saw no signs of dropping off last season despite turning 39 in December. (If anything, he turned back the clock with his best RAPTOR since 2020.) But his 2024-25 projection is in the same neighborhood as Durant’s because we have very few examples of players continuing to be significantly above average at 40 or older.
As difficult as it is to envision, one of these seasons LeBron will no longer be the player whose greatness we’ve come to expect as a constant over the past two decades. For now, though, Team USA is counting on him being his usual legendary self – and so far, so good.
11. Derrick White, United States
2024-25 age: 30 | Boston Celtics
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +1.8 | Defense: +1.2 | Overall: +3.0
While some of us have been Derrick White enjoyers for a long time, White finally got his flowers from a wider audience thanks to his postseason play as the Celtics won the NBA championship. White was a last-minute replacement on Team USA when Leonard withdrew this month, and he certainly isn’t in Kawhi’s class as a scorer.
But he makes up for it with an ability to do just about everything else at a high level, from shooting 3s and distributing the ball to playing disruptive defense. After his best pro season (9.4 WAR), now is the perfect time for White to make his mark at the Olympics as well.
10. Franz Wagner, Germany
2024-25 age: 23 | Orlando Magic
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.6 | Defense: +0.5 | Overall: +3.1
Estimated RAPTOR loves Wagner, who also showed up surprisingly high in our first-round NBA playoffs player rankings.
But it isn’t every day when a 22-year-old hits the benchmarks that Wagner reached last season. He joined Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett as the only players since the 1976 NBA-ABA merger to rank in the 60th percentile of NBA players or better in points per 100 possessions, assist rate, turnover rate, rebound rate and defensive RAPTOR.
In that context, Wagner’s massive recent contract extension was no surprise, and it’s going to be exciting to see what he does alongside his brother Moritz and fellow NBA players Dennis Schroder and Daniel Theis on the German national team.
9. Anthony Davis, United States
2024-25 age: 31 | Los Angeles Lakers
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +1.8 | Defense: +1.3 | Overall: +3.1
In a welcomed sight for the Lakers – and now for Team USA – Davis was durable enough to play a career-high 76 games last season and produce 10.0 WAR, his most in a season since winning the championship during his Lakers debut in 2020. There’s no doubting Davis’ ability to affect the game at both ends of the court when he is healthy, and these projections still see him as one of the league’s premier two-way stars.
As part of a stacked U.S. frontcourt, Davis will play a much larger role than when he averaged 3.7 PPG off the bench as a rookie on the gold medal-winning 2012 American squad in London.
8. Devin Booker, United States
2024-25 age: 28 | Phoenix Suns
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +3.9 | Defense: -0.6 | Overall: +3.3
Coming off the failure of the Suns’ superteam, it will be nice to see Booker put his explosive scoring talents to use for a squad that might actually win something. Booker boasts one of the highest projected offensive RAPTOR scores in the Olympic field because he mixed volume and efficiency as well as anyone in the league last season; he was one of just six qualified players to score at least 36 points per 100 possessions while maintaining a True Shooting Percentage of at least 61. Toss in the league’s 13th-highest assist rate, and Booker has all the tools to make an offense hum.
His defense is far from stellar – he ranked 20th worst among qualified guards in defensive RAPTOR last season – but Booker’s ability to do so many different things on offense makes him a perfect fit in a tournament like this, playing next to countless other stars.
7. Anthony Edwards, United States
2024-25 age: 23 | Minnesota Timberwolves
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.5 | Defense: +1.0 | Overall: +3.5
Edwards’ NBA trajectory is on the rise following the career season (9.9 WAR) he posted in 2023-24 as part of his Timberwolves’ playoff run to rank among the league’s best teams. He’s the youngest member of Team USA (he’ll turn 23 on Aug. 5, the day before the knockout round begins), but Edwards does have experience on a version of this stage, having averaged 18.9 PPG for the U.S. in last summer’s FIBA World Cup. The Americans finished a disappointing fourth in that tournament, but it served as a springboard for Edwards’ subsequent success.
Now he gets the chance to learn from – and earn playing time alongside – some of the most important names in U.S. basketball history, setting himself up as the future cornerstone of the program.
6. Tyrese Haliburton, United States
2024-25 age: 24 | Indiana Pacers
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +5.0 | Defense: -0.3 | Overall: +4.8
On the topic of breakout players from the 2023-24 NBA season, Haliburton continued his ascent into the league’s upper echelons with an assist crown (10.9 per game), an All-NBA nod (third team), a pair of deep runs in the in-season tournament and the playoffs and a career-high 9.7 WAR.
Haliburton pulls ahead of Edwards here because he is only slightly older and had a much higher offensive rating and assist rate last season and a superior on-court influence on his team. Edwards is the better defender, though Haliburton doesn’t rate as poorly as we might assume from Indiana’s overall defensive struggles, and his all-around offensive efficiency numbers are unlike anything we’ll see this side of Nikola Jokić.
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Which countries could challenge Team USA in basketball at the Olympics?
Check out some of the challengers that stand in the way of Team USA winning a gold medal at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics.
5. Jayson Tatum, United States
2024-25 age: 26 | Boston Celtics
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +3.9 | Defense: +0.8 | Overall: +4.8
Tatum is a freshly crowned NBA champion, which brings a measure of validation for a player whose statistical résumé otherwise speaks for itself. Like he has been for the Celtics, Tatum is a skeleton key for Team USA with his ability to play multiple roles – and positions – all at a very high level.
As part of the dataset feeding these projections, Tatum recorded 72% of his minutes at power forward for Boston last season, the second-highest rate of his career. He won’t have to do that as much on a roster already replete with frontcourt talent, which might free up Tatum to tap into more of his perimeter skills – such as when he led the U.S. in 3-pointers per possession during the 2021 Olympics (though he probably will finish higher than last in assist rate this time around).
4. Joel Embiid, United States
2024-25 age: 30 | Philadelphia 76ers
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +4.9 | Defense: +0.6 | Overall: +5.5
Embiid’s decision in October to represent the United States – in honor of his son being born in America – over France and Cameroon, his other nations of citizenship, changed the landscape of these rankings. Instead of international players making up the top four, including every player projected for an Estimated RAPTOR of +5 or higher, Embiid gives the U.S. yet another high entry on the list (the Americans have six of the top 10 and nine of the top 15).
Embiid makes his 7-foot presence known in all phases of the game, including as a rim protector and rebounder, but he is also the scorer of all scorers, even on a team full of them. No active player has a better career points per 100 possessions average than Embiid’s 42.5 mark, making him the best bucket-getter in this Olympic tournament.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greece
2024-25 age: 30 | Milwaukee Bucks
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +5.2 | Defense: +0.8 | Overall: +5.9
Greece has one active NBA player on its roster. But if you can have only a single entry on this list, you could do a lot worse than a player who has finished no worse than fourth in MVP balloting in any NBA season since 2017-18.
It was unfortunate we didn’t see Antetokounmpo play a minute in the playoffs because of a calf strain, but he is back for Paris and, in fact, was Greece’s flag-bearer at the opening ceremonies.
Giannis is still in his prime as one of the league’s most dominant players at both ends, and it will be a joy to watch him compete in his first trip to the Olympics, as Greece had not previously qualified since the 2008 Games. Shooting is still Antetokounmpo’s biggest weakness – he averaged his fewest made 3s per 100 possessions since 2015-16 last season – but that didn’t stop him from ranking third in points per 100 and third in offensive RAPTOR.
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Giannis surprises Greece Olympic teammates with new shoes
Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo surprises his Greece teammates with his latest shoes from Nike.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Canada
2024-25 age: 26 | Oklahoma City Thunder
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +5.6 | Defense: +0.9 | Overall: +6.4
Though his Thunder fell short in the playoffs against the Dallas Mavericks, Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-level ascent was one of the best stories of the 2023-24 NBA season. Now he is the face of a Canadian basketball program that has also leveled its profile on the international scene.
Practically every member of Canada’s roster is an NBA player, many of whom are quite good even if they didn’t make this list. (Apologies to Andrew Nembhard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, RJ Barrett and Luguentz Dort.) The best is Gilgeous-Alexander, though, and he is coming off a career-best +8.8 Estimated RAPTOR and 16.4 WAR in 2023-24.
The projections are building in a bit of regression to the mean from those rates in 2024-25, but Gilgeous-Alexander is also young enough on the aging curve to improve his underlying skills, which include elite scoring, efficiency, passing and defense.
Of the 10 most similar seasons to SGA at the same age last season, four belonged to Michael Jordan, two to LeBron James, two to Dwyane Wade, one to Kawhi Leonard and one to Kobe Bryant. That’s the type of player Gilgeous-Alexander has become in a very short time.
1. Nikola Jokić, Serbia
2024-25 age: 29 | Denver Nuggets
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +6.4 | Defense: +1.4 | Overall: +7.9
Is it really any surprise Jokić projects as the best NBA player at the Olympics? The reigning league MVP has won the award in three of the past four seasons – and 2023-24 was his best yet by total value, with a career-high 17.9 WAR in 79 games. One of the common critiques of advanced stats as they pertain to Jokić is that his defense always grades extremely well (he has the fifth-best projected defensive RAPTOR here), something that defies his long-standing reputation and the eye test.
But Jokić is deceptively active on defense – he was one of only 20 qualified players to rank among the top 30% of players in both steal and block rate – and he helped the Nuggets rank eighth in defensive rating with a sizable negative split (which is good when trying to allow fewer points) while he was on the court. It’s another way in which Jokić is one of history’s more misunderstood superstars, and he’ll bring that performance to just his second career Olympic appearance in Paris.
Just missed the list
Jrue Holiday, USA
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Serbia
Moritz Wagner, Germany
Luguentz Dort, Canada
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Canada
via ESPN