By MateoMayorga | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-07-20 00:02:31
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
休赛期的操作如何影响各支球队，以及预测他们的最终排名。
NBA 西南赛区在 2023-24 赛季有两支季后赛球队（达拉斯独行侠队和新奥尔良鹈鹕队），但总体而言，对于这个曾经是 NBA 中最艰难的赛区来说，这是一个低迷的赛季。然而，良好的健康状况、自由球员市场上的一些稳健操作以及内部的成长，使其有望成为下赛季六大赛区中最具竞争力的赛区之一。
该赛区的一些引人注目的故事情节包括：达拉斯独行侠队的救赎之旅、贾·莫兰特重新夺回他作为精英球员的地位、锡安·威廉姆森保持健康以最大限度地发挥新奥尔良鹈鹕队的实力、休斯顿火箭队在阿尔佩伦·申京和杰伦·格林之间如何抉择，以及法国新星维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)能在第二年将圣安东尼奥马刺队提升到何种程度。
下面，我们将看看每支球队的优势和劣势，并预测他们将在本赛季的排名。
达拉斯独行侠队
预期战绩： 53胜29负
这支野马队和他们在总决赛中失利的球队一样强大，但有一些新面孔。但这并不意味着他们这次就能冲出西部。
优势：
卫冕西部冠军拥有卢卡·东契奇(Luka Dončić)和凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)两位得分手，他们可以轻松地创造分离和过度反应的机会，为射手们腾出空间。
用非纳税人中产特例签下纳吉·马歇尔(Naji Marshall)增加了一名侧翼球员，他在 2023-24 赛季打出了他最精准的一个赛季（有效命中率 - 54.2%）。他也是一名 serviceable 的防守者，他将在后防线上发挥最大的作用，让独行侠队可以打得更小更快。
昆汀·格莱姆斯(Quentin Grimes)是在用蒂姆·哈达威(Tim Hardaway Jr.)和次轮选秀权交换后被引进的。由于伤病，上个赛季对格莱姆斯来说是一个低谷赛季，但在 2022-23 赛季，他的真实命中率达到了 61.9%。NBA 对真实命中率的定义是*“一种投篮命中率，除了传统的两分球外，还考虑了三分球和罚球的价值。”*
独行侠队正在赌博，希望格莱姆斯能找回状态，这将给他们一个季后赛轮换球员，而哈达威最近已经不是了。
克莱·汤普森(Klay Thompson)也与独行侠队签署了一份为期三年的合同。尽管自然衰退，但他仍然很耐用，并且是 NBA 最顶级的接球就投射手之一。在 2022-23 赛季，汤普森以 41.2% 的命中率投进了职业生涯最高的 301 个三分球。上赛季他以 38.7% 的命中率投进了 268 个三分球。
当东契奇和欧文在底线被包夹或高位双人包夹时，汤普森的技能组合为独行侠队提供了一个致命的泄压阀。
劣势：
用汤普森取代德里克·琼斯(Derrick Jones Jr.)将在防守端对球队的伤害最大，因为前者已经无法再防守对方最好的外线球员了。琼斯做得很好，他的掩护导航给了后卫额外的瞬间来找到正确的位置。他现在是洛杉矶快船队的一员。在一定程度上，虽然获得了汤普森的远投能力，但独行侠队也失去了琼斯的无球运动能力，这让他能够在篮筐上方完成进攻。
东契奇拒绝投入防守的态度令人尴尬。如果其他球员对防守越来越不感兴趣，作为榜样，他将承担一定的责任。
德里克·莱弗利二世(Dereck Lively II)和丹尼尔·加福德(Daniel Gafford)这两位大个子进攻能力薄弱，他们只是空接威胁，得分主要靠补篮。不能指望他们在低位打开外线或投进挡拆后的投篮。
孟菲斯灰熊队
预期战绩： 51胜31负
你上次看到一支球队带着一个 27 胜的阵容卷土重来，并期待着加入争冠行列是什么时候？灰熊队还在选秀中选中了连续两届（2023 年和 2024 年）全美大学生年度最佳球员扎克·埃迪(Zach Edey)。
优势：
联盟中顶级的进攻创造者之一，贾·莫兰特(Ja Morant)，在因违反联盟有害行为的禁赛令被禁赛后，将在 2024-25 赛季从第一天起就与球队并肩作战。他的存在让孟菲斯在德斯蒙德·贝恩(Desmond Bane)身边拥有了 NBA 最顶级的后场组合之一，贝恩是一位攻防两端的多面手。
防守悍将马库斯·斯马特(Marcus Smart)是领导第二阵容的完美角色球员，因为他拥有高球商和强大的动力。前锋 GG 杰克逊(GG Jackson)在上赛季的 48 场比赛中作为一名得分尖刀崭露头角，他应该会在斯马特和其他替补球员身边获得大量的上场时间。
埃迪身高 7 英尺 4 英寸，他的低位存在将吸引额外的防守注意力，从而为队友创造空位。他太高大、技术太娴熟、力量太强大了，不能再在场边学习了。
劣势：
失去史蒂文·亚当斯(Steven Adams)对更衣室的领导力是一个打击，他上个赛季因为十字韧带后交叉韧带受伤没有上场。
除了贝恩之外，球队仍然缺乏稳定的外线射手。
灰熊队的篮板球 percentage 排名第 25 位。埃迪将在这一方面提供帮助，但球队的其他成员必须在团队篮板上做得更好。
新奥尔良鹈鹕队
预期战绩： 46胜36负
德章泰·穆雷(Dejounte Murray)被交易到新奥尔良，换来了戴森·丹尼尔斯(Dyson Daniels)、E.J. 利德尔(E.J. Liddell)、小拉里·南斯(Larry Nance Jr.)、科迪·泽勒(Cody Zeller)和两个首轮选秀权（2025 年和 2027 年）。
布兰登·英格拉姆(Brandon Ingram)赛季末的表现令人失望，他的合同状况仍未解决。然而，鹈鹕队坚称他想留下来。
锡安·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson)在 2023-24 赛季迎来了他职业生涯中第二个最健康的赛季，出战了 70 场比赛，但他在最重要的时刻因为腿筋受伤而脱轨，错过了附加赛和第一轮比赛。
优势：
根据 Basketball Reference 的数据，威廉姆森可以随心所欲地杀入篮下，他在这个区域的投篮命中率高达 71.7%。他的组织能力也提高了很多，可以成为球队的进攻发动机，如果英格拉姆还在的话，这将减轻穆雷、CJ 麦科勒姆(CJ McCollum)和英格拉姆的压力。
穆雷的速度和三分线内的效率很有帮助，因为它给了鹈鹕队另一个可以创造投篮机会的球员。他作为一名防守篮板手的贡献将带来开阔的球场机会，帮助鹈鹕队打得更快。
赫伯·琼斯(Herb Jones)和特雷·墨菲三世(Trey Murphy III)在防守端的换防让对手窒息。他们的技术和球商让他们能够在盯人防守和区域联防的多个区域都表现出色。
劣势：
对于像穆雷这样有活力的球员来说，他上赛季场均 3.4 次的罚球次数太少了。此外，穆雷在亚特兰大老鹰队的防守有所下降，因为他不像以前那样投入，而且在换防前锋方面做得不好，尽管他拥有不错的身体条件。在他效力马刺队的最后一个赛季（2021-22 赛季），他在防守端四分之一的时间里将前锋的投篮命中率限制在 51.5%。而在 2023-24 赛季，他在相同的时间里让这个位置的球员的命中率达到了 57.2%。
新奥尔良的中锋位置令人怀疑。他们失去了尤纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯(Jonas Valančiūnas)的篮板球，尽管他是一个糟糕的防守者。但他的替代者是丹尼尔·泰斯(Daniel Theis)，他可以覆盖更多的位置，但他是快船队在常规赛中的第 11 人（上场时间），在季后赛中也很少被使用。根据 ESPN 的深度图表，新秀伊夫·米西(Yves Missi)排在泰斯之前。
威廉姆森的身体习惯性地背叛了他，这使得人们很难在赛季末期依赖他的服务。他是在 2019 年被选中的，在 390 场比赛中只打了 184 场。在这一点上，如果鹈鹕队能从威廉姆森身上获得一个半健康的赛季，就像波特兰开拓者队在 1976-77 赛季从比尔·沃顿(Bill Walton)身上得到的，或者多伦多猛龙队在 2018-19 赛季幸运地从科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)身上得到的那样，那将像是中了彩票一样。
休斯顿火箭队
预期战绩： 43胜39负
火箭队在选秀大会上用探花签选中了里德·谢泼德(Reed Sheppard)，以帮助解决球队的进攻问题。在 2023-24 赛季，球队的进攻效率在所有球队中排名倒数三分之一。
优势：
主教练伊梅·乌多卡(Ime Udoka)是一位受人尊敬的领导者，随着球队继续形成自己的身份，他可能会从他的球员身上榨取更多的东西。
老将弗雷德·范弗利特(Fred VanVleet)也是一名可靠的更衣室领袖。
在 2023-24 赛季，火箭队是常规赛中防守三分球最好的球队，将对手的三分球命中率限制在 34.8%。此外，休斯顿的防守效率排名第九。请记住，没有任何重要的轮换球员离开。
阿尔佩伦·申京(Alperen Şengün)在篮下很有攻击性，他出色的脚步移动可以为外线或突破创造机会。他和休斯顿的得分后卫杰伦·格林(Jalen Green)都有资格获得加薪，所以他们俩都有动力打出职业生涯的最佳赛季。格林上赛季有 16 场比赛得分至少达到 30 分，在这 14 场比赛中，他的投篮命中率至少达到了 50%。
劣势：
火箭队的场均三分球命中率排名联盟第 23 位，上赛季对篮筐的冲击力也很低。范弗利特是唯一一个三分球命中率高于联盟平均水平的首发球员。
进攻端需要更多的创造力，因为上赛季球队的助攻率排名倒数第四。更糟糕的是，火箭队的传球次数排名第 28 位。
圣安东尼奥马刺队
预期战绩： 37胜45负
毫无疑问，夏天的运作让马刺队在纸面上看起来又变成了一支respectable的球队，摆烂已经结束了。然而，要想在战绩上超越上赛季多赢了 19 场比赛的火箭队，仍然是一项艰巨的任务。
优势：
维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)将在二年级迎来巨大的飞跃。
此外，马刺队将拥有克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)和文班亚马组成的犀利的挡拆进攻组合。他们将吸引如此多的防守注意力，以至于德文·瓦塞尔(Devin Vassell)将获得他在 NBA 职业生涯中作为替补球员从未有过的空位投篮机会。保罗的传球和决策能力将确保文班亚马提高他的投篮选择，并且在其他进攻回合中不必为得分过于费力。
新加盟的哈里森·巴恩斯(Harrison Barnes)是一位总冠军球员，他带来了空切、老将领导力和经验。
斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)是一位持球防守悍将。他在防守端的干扰应该会创造一些快攻机会，并为文班亚马提供额外的瞬间来观察持球人并协防突破手。
劣势：
替补中锋扎克·柯林斯(Zach Collins)是一位蹲坑型防守者，就像现阶段的文班亚马一样，这可能会让他们成为精英球员在挡拆中的目标。由于三分球的盛行，现在对优秀防守大个子的标准比以往任何时候都要高。大个子在掩护影响到他们的小个子队友时必须协防到外线，否则他们就会给对手一个很好的投篮机会。
马刺队缺乏可靠的进攻选择，也没有一个成熟的老将来领导第二阵容，但这并不意味着他们下赛季不会取得长足的进步。
点击查看原文：The Southwest Division is ready to take a big leap next season
The Southwest Division is ready to take a big leap next season
A look at how the offseason affects each team and predicting where they will end up.
The NBA’s Southwest division had two Playoff teams in 2023-24 (Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans), but overall it was a down season for what used to be the toughest division in the NBA. However, good health, some solid moves in free agency and internal growth has it is shaping up to be one of the most competitive of the six divisions for the upcoming season.
Some compelling storylines in the division are the Dallas Mavericks’ quest for redemption, Ja Morant reclaiming his status as an elite player, Zion Williamson staying healthy to maximize the New Orleans Pelicans, who the Houston Rockets keep between Alpheren Şengün and Jalen Green, and how far can the French Usurper, Victor Wembanyama, can elevate the San Antonio Spurs in year two.
Below, we will take a look at each team’s strengths and weaknesses and predict where they will finish the seaosn.
Dallas Mavericks
Expected record: 53-29
The Wild Horses are as strong as its team that lost in the Finals, but with some new faces. That doesn’t mean they will make it out of the West this time.
Strengths:
The reigning Western Conference champions have a luxury in two capable scorers, Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, who can create separation and overreactions easily, giving room to the marksmen.
Adding Naji Marshall for the non-taxpayer midlevel exception adds a wing who had his most accurate season in 2023-24 (EFG- 54.2 percent). He is also a serviceable defender who will be most impactful in the backline, allowing the Mavericks to play small and fast.
Quentin Grimes was brought in after the exchange for Tim Hardaway Jr. and second-round draft compensation. The previous campaign was a down year for Grimes in part because of injuries but in 2022-23, recorded 61.9 percent in the true shooting department. The NBA defines true shooting as “A shooting percentage that factors in the value of three-point field goals and free throws in addition to conventional two-point field goals.”
The Mavericks are gambling on getting the old Grimes back, which would give them a postseason rotation player, something Hardaway wasn’t recently.
Klay Thompson signed a three-year deal with the Mavericks, too. Despite natural regression, he is still durable and one of the NBA’s top catch-and-shoot snipers. In 2022-23, Thompson connected on a career-high 301 trays on 41.2 percent shooting. He made 268 last season with 38.7 percent accuracy.
Thompson’s skill set gives the Mavericks a lethal release valve when Dončic and Irving are trapped at the baseline or doubled high.
Weaknesses:
Replacing Derrick Jones Jr. with Thompson will hurt the group most on defense because the latter can no longer guard the other team’s best perimeter player. Jones did well, and his screen navigation gave the protectors in the back extra moments to get in the right spots. He’s now a Los Angeles Clipper. To a lesser degree, while gaining Thompson’s deep touch, the Mavericks have lost Jones’ off-ball athleticism, which allowed him to finish above the rim.
Dončić’s refusal to commit to defense is embarrassing. If other players grow disinterested at guarding, he will have some responsibility as the example.
And the bigs, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, have weak offensive games as they are just lob threats and score on putbacks. They can’t be depended on to open up the perimeter from the post or hit pick-and-pop shots.
Memphis Grizzlies
Expected record: 51-31
When did you last see a team run back a 27-win group and expect to be in the hunt? The Grizzlies also picked Zach Edey, back-to-back National College Player of the Year (2023 and 2024), ninth in the draft.
Strengths:
Ja Morant, one of the top shot creators in the league, will be with the group from day one in 2024-25 after recovering from a shoulder injury that permitted him to play in nine games last year after his suspension for conduct detrimental to the league. His presence gives Memphis one of the top backcourts in the NBA next to Desmond Bane, a versatile on and off-ball threat.
Defensive ace Marcus Smart is the perfect role player to lead the second unit because of his IQ and motor. Forward GG Jackson, who blossomed in 48 outings last year as a scoring switchblade, should get plenty of time next to Smart and other reserves.
Edey’s post presence, at 7-foot-4, will command extra help, leaving someone open. He is too big, too skilled and too powerful to learn from the sidelines.
Weaknesses:
Losing Steven Adams, who didn’t play last year as his posterior cruciate ligament healed, will be a blow to the locker room leadership.
Deep shooting is still scarce next to Bane.
And the Grizzlies were 25th in rebounding percentage. Edey will help in this department, but the rest of the squad has to do a better job of gang rebounding.
New Orleans Pelicans
Expected record: 46-36
Dejounte Murray was traded to NOLA for Dyson Daniels, E.J. Liddell, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, and two first-round picks (2025 and 2027).
Brandon Ingram’s end-of-season performance was appalling, and his contract situation remains unresolved. Yet, the Pelicans insist he wants to stay.
Zion Williamson had his second-healthiest pro season in 2023-24, playing 70 games, but he was derailed at the most important time due to a hamstring injury, missing the Play-In Tournament and first round.
Strengths:
According to Basketball Reference, Williamson gets to the rim when he pleases, recording 71.7 percent of attempted shots in that spot. He’s a much-improved playmaker as well and can be the setup man, which will take pressure off Murray, CJ McCollum and Ingram if he’s still around.
Murray’s speed and inside the arc efficiency are helpful because it gives the Pelicans another player who can create his shot. His contributions as a defensive rebounder will lead to open court opportunities, helping the Pelicans play faster.
Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III’s switching on defense suffocates opponents. Their tools and IQ allow them to excel in man coverage and in multiple areas of a zone.
Weaknesses:
Murray doesn’t get to the line enough for someone that dynamic, taking 3.4 freebies per game last season. Furthermore, Murray fell off defensively as an Atlanta Hawk because he wasn’t as engaged and did poorly switching on forwards while having nice physical tools. In his last year with the Spurs (2021-22), he held forwards to 51.5 percent of attempts for a quarter of his time on defense. In the same amount of time, he gave up 57.2 percent to that position group in 2023-24.
NOLA is suspect at center. They lost Jonas Valančiūnas’ rebounding, although he was a poor defender. But his replacement is Daniel Theis, who can cover more spots but was the Clippers’ 11th man (minutes per game) in the regular season and was sparsely used in the Playoffs. Rookie Yves Missi is ahead of Theis on ESPN’s depth chart.
And Williamson’s body habitually betrays him, making it difficult to depend on his services late in the year. He was drafted in 2019 and has played in 184 of 390 matches. At this point, it would be like hitting the lottery again if the Pelicans could get a semi-healthy season out of Williamson like the Portland Trail Blazers got from Bill Walton in 1976-77 or the Toronto Raptors lucked into with Kawhi Leonard in 2018-19.
Houston Rockets
Expected record: 43-39
The Rockets picked Reed Sheppard third on draft night to help with its offensive challenges. In 2023-24, the group was in the bottom third of all squads in offensive rating.
Strengths:
Coach Ime Udoka is a respected leader who will likely squeeze a bit more juice out of his troops as they continue to form an identity.
Veteran Fred VanVleet is a dependable locker room chief, too.
In 2023-24, the Rockets were the top regular season team in covering the 3-point line, allowing the opponent 34.8 percent of made shots. To boot, H-Town’s squad possessed the ninth-ranked defense. Keep in mind, no serious rotation player left.
Alperen Şengün eats at close range and has impressive footwork that opens up the perimeter or cutting avenues. He and Jalen Green, Houston’s scoring guard, qualify for raises, so both are motivated to have career years. Green had 16 games last season scoring at least 30 points and he converted at least 50 percent of his attempts in 14 of those matches.
Weaknesses:
The Rockets were 23rd of 30 teams in 3-point percentage and generated low rim pressure last year. VanVleet was the only starter to shoot above average from deep.
The offense needs more creativity, as the previous unit was fourth-worst in the league in assist percentage. To pile on, the Rockets were 28th in made passes.
San Antonio Spurs
Expected record: 37-45
Unquestionably, the summer moves make the Spurs look like a respectable club again on paper and the soft tank is over. Still, overtaking the Rockets in the standings, who won 19 more matches last year, is still an arduous task.
Strengths:
Victor Wembanyama will have a seismic second-year leap.
Moreover, the Spurs will have a razorlike pick-and-roll attack with Chris Paul and Wembanyama. They will generate so much attention that Devin Vassell will have the most open looks he’s ever had in the NBA as a backup weapon. Paul’s passing and decision-making will ensure W raises his shooting splits and doesn’t have to work too hard for his shot on other sets, either.
The newly acquired Harrison Barnes is a champion who brings cutting, veteran leadership and experience.
Stephon Castle is a point-of-attack pest. His disruption up top should generate some fastbreak opportunities and will provide Wemby a spare moment to watch the ball handler and tag the roller.
Weaknesses:
Backup center Zach Collins is a drop defender, as Wembanyama is mainly at this stage, which can make them targets of elite players in pick and roll. The standards of being a great defensive big man are higher now than ever before because of the prevalence of the 3-point shot. Bigs must tag the perimeter when screens compromise their smaller teammates or else they are giving up a decent look.
The Spurs lack reliable offensive options and don’t have an established veteran to lead the second unit, but that doesn’t mean they won’t take a big step forward next season.
By MateoMayorga, via Pounding The Rock