由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
扎克·劳伊，ESPN 资深作家，2024年7月5日，美国东部时间上午8:00
在经历了又一个疯狂的 NBA 自由球员市场后，现在是时候盘点一下谁赢了，谁输了，以及联盟现在处于什么位置了。
跳转到劳伊评选的自由球员市场最大赢家、输家和要点:
快船的失败 | 丹佛的恐惧
奥兰多的建队 | 俄克拉荷马城赢得了…一切
76 人的三巨头 | 波士顿卷土重来
休斯顿，冷静应对 | 克利夫兰平息了噪音
马刺队迎来了控球之神
输家：洛杉矶快船
失败和后悔之间是有区别的，尽管一个会导致另一个。保罗·乔治-科怀·伦纳德时代是失败的。当然，这确实意味着一位超级巨星选择了洛杉矶的“另一支”球队——并吸引了另一位超级巨星与他一起——并且他们带领快船队打进了球队历史上的第一个分区决赛。伦纳德和乔治巩固了快船队的相关性，弥合了空接之城和 Intuit 球馆之间的差距。
但是，在五个赛季中只赢得了三个季后赛系列赛——自 2021 年分区决赛之后就再也没有赢过——这是一个令人震惊的失败。自 2020 年快船队在佛罗里达州奥兰多泡泡赛区灾难性的崩盘以来，伦纳德还没有完成一个健康的赛季。
他们永远无法维持化学反应——一支完全适应自身状态的球队的难以言喻的节奏。他们在适应了詹姆斯·哈登之后似乎抓住了它，却最终失去了它——在全明星赛后以 0.500 的胜率徘徊，并在第一轮再次步履蹒跚地出局。现在，一切都结束了。
看着谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和杰伦·威廉姆斯（用洛杉矶交易来的一名球员选中）带领俄克拉荷马雷霆队长期位居榜首，这将是痛苦的，但痛苦也不是后悔。快船队在交易一切时就知道风险。竞争对手的高管们也知道，他们几乎所有人都同意——有些人是勉强地，有些人是点头兴奋地——他们在同样的压力下也会做出同样的交易。你会积累资产，以获得签下卫冕总决赛 MVP 和刚刚获得 MVP 投票第三名的球员的机会——两人都处于巅峰时期。
快船队在解释乔治离开的声明中提到了新的第二奢侈税线和随之而来的球队建设限制。这不可能是他们在乔治的合同中拒绝给他第四年的全部原因——这是费城 76 人队毫不犹豫地做的事情。
快船队以两年 7000 万美元的合同续约了哈登。如果他们愿意让乔治以接近伦纳德薪水的三年合同回归——我相信他们最终会这样做——那么他们几乎肯定会在 2024-25 赛季突破第二奢侈税线。他们在 2025-26 赛季也有再次超过它的风险。
谨慎管理，他们可能能够在 2025-26 赛季避开第二奢侈税线，即使乔治的收入为 5000 万美元。也许清晰度——消除这种“可能性”——才是重点。
连续两年进入第二奢侈税线会引发更严厉的处罚，包括将未来的一个选秀权推迟到第 30 顺位——更不用说超级奢侈税的账单了。但到第三年，哈登的合同就到期了。到第四年——快船队的“不归点”——哈登和伦纳德的合同都将到期。“怪罪奢侈税线”的逻辑并不完全成立。
快船队似乎只是简单地得出结论，乔治-伦纳德的球队已经走到了尽头。窗口已经关闭，因此没有必要再投入更多资金。在第四年支付给 38 岁的乔治近 6000 万美元的薪水，几乎肯定是一笔糟糕的生意。76 人队不在乎。乔尔·恩比德已经 30 岁了，而且有很长的受伤史，他们正在追逐总冠军。快船队不再是了。奢侈税线的阴影只会让选择更加 stark。
时机很重要。1 月 10 日，伦纳德与快船队续约，当时快船队正处于 16 胜 3 负的连胜中。伦纳德很健康，快船队看起来像是竞争者——值得投资。无论出于何种原因——也许是因为他了解自己的影响力——乔治直到赛季结束后才表示反对。
到那时，伦纳德受伤了，快船队在第一轮输了——又一次。西部已经超过了他们。屈服于乔治的要求有什么意义？
今天人们可能会想知道，让哈登留在球队中有什么意义。他很出色，而且在没有太多市场的情况下，他接受了一份更短、更便宜的合同。他和伦纳德可以帮助球队在进入“马桶宫殿”（译者注：指快船队的新球馆）时保持稳定。快船队无法推倒一切，因为雷霆队，以及现在的 76 人队——由于哈登的交易——控制着他们到 2029 年的首轮选秀权。
快船队利用他们新获得的回旋余地，与小德里克·琼斯、老朋友尼古拉斯·巴图姆和克里斯·邓恩签署了明智的协议。他们会很稳固——阵容深度足够，也许速度更快，更有活力。当快船队以 16 胜 11 负的战绩开局时，你已经可以预见到那些令人感觉良好的头条新闻了：充满活力的全新快船队迈入了新时代！
但是，上升空间和出错的余地已经不存在了。如果伦纳德现在受伤了怎么办？
在 2019 年夏天，联盟魅力市场的弟弟球队在休赛期取得了大胆的胜利，并要求被听到。在之后的五个赛季里，快船队和布鲁克林篮网队总共赢得了四个季后赛系列赛。
快船队可能又要经历一段时间的炼狱了。篮网队正在摆烂。湖人队仍然是洛杉矶的王者，而纽约尼克斯队则有机会赢得一切。哎哟。
输家：丹佛掘金队和对第二奢侈税线的便捷恐惧
只要贾马尔·穆雷和世界上最好的球员保持健康，掘金队就可以争夺总冠军，但是从肯塔维奥斯·卡德维尔-波普到克里斯蒂安·布劳恩的降级将在季后赛中面对最好的球队时暴露出来。还有一个替补到替补的问题；掘金队轮换阵容之外的人现在必须填补布劳恩的替补角色——就像上赛季掘金队争先恐后地填补布鲁斯·布朗的出场时间一样。
布劳恩是一名稳固的、正在进步的角色球员，他可以在体型上比卡德维尔-波普更好地防守。但作为一名射手，他还远未达到卡德维尔-波普的水平，而投篮正是丹佛最需要从那个位置得到的东西。上赛季他们的三分球出手次数已经是联盟最少的，即使对于一支围绕约基奇建立的球队来说，也存在着一个必须达到的数学阈值。
掘金队会把责任归咎于奢侈税线，而且有一种说法是，对于那些不想花钱的老板来说，奢侈税线是一个方便的替罪羊。NBA 的一个流行笑话是，“没有哪个老板想在乡村俱乐部被称为吝啬鬼。”
匹配魔术队为卡德维尔-波普开出的三年 6600 万美元的报价可能——仅仅是可能——会导致掘金队连续三年超过第二奢侈税线。避开第二奢侈税线是很困难的。联盟取消了许多阵容建设工具。你只能在交易中减少你的薪水，而且随着越来越多的球队接近奢侈税线，倾销资金可能会变得更加困难。你最终可能会被你拥有的球员困住，并且（在丹佛的情况下）支付巨额的超级奢侈税。
当然，反驳的理由是，被“困在”一支冠军级别的球队中，才是拥有 NBA 球队的全部意义所在。掘金队本赛季也可以通过交易泽克·纳吉来避开第二奢侈税线，尽管拥有薪金空间的球队会向丹佛队索要选秀权。掘金队已经失去了几个未来的选秀权，所以他们在为奢侈税线相关的交易加油时，弹药已经不多了。
如果卡德维尔-波普还在球队名单上，那么在 2025-26 赛季或 2026-27 赛季避开第二奢侈税线几乎是不可能的，除非在此过程中大幅削减薪水——可能还要加上除了纳吉之外的另一名角色球员。即使没有卡德维尔-波普，考虑到穆雷、阿隆·戈登、布劳恩和佩顿·沃森的潜在新合同，掘金队在 2026-27 赛季也有可能超过第二奢侈税线。
有一些可行的方法可以在本赛季避开第二奢侈税线，留住卡德维尔-波普，并将痛苦的选择推迟一年。这些途径很窄。但这是有可能的，而且对于一支你知道可以赢得总冠军的球队来说，承受处罚并付出高昂的代价来维持它也是有一定道理的。
掘金队总经理卡尔文·布斯认为这种情况正是你选择你认为可以很快提供帮助的球员的原因，这也是有道理的：布劳恩、沃森、朱利安·斯特劳瑟、杰伦·皮克特、亨特·泰森，以及现在的达龙·霍姆斯二世。(任何鹦鹉学舌般重复这种说法的总经理肯定都知道，这为他们的老板提供了掩护。)
布斯对他选秀的成绩感到非常自豪。那些球员最好做好准备。斯特劳瑟在伤病阻碍了他的赛季之前看起来已经准备好了。他应该很适合在约基奇身边跑动。
底线：第二奢侈税线既是一个真正的障碍，也是一种激发已有节俭意识的东西。
早在 2018 年，我就写过关于新的超级顶薪合同的道德困境——一些球队面临着痛苦的选择，要么在球星 30 多岁的时候支付给他们巨额的、不断上涨的合同，要么把他们交易走。NBA（及其球队老板）是否意外地引入了另一个阻碍球员名单连续性的问题？
在几位高管的帮助下，我提出了一系列规则修改建议（有些是现实的，有些是异想天开的），旨在减轻球队团结一致的经济负担：特赦条款、奖金上限例外，以及其他细节。最相关的是：如果本土球员的超级顶薪合同没有全部计入奢侈税，会怎么样？即使这仅仅是为了给亿万富翁省钱，这样做是否值得，是否能帮助伟大的球队团结一致？
感觉现在是时候讨论类似的事情了，可以与第二奢侈税线一起讨论。
赢家：奥兰多魔术队，开始建设
在某些时候，魔术队可能需要另一名接近全明星级别的球员，才能跻身竞争者行列。那个时候不必是现在。魔术队可以等等看保罗·班凯罗和弗朗茨·瓦格纳能走多远——以及这对他们真正需要哪种人才补充有什么启示。
如果杰伦·萨格斯再次取得进步，或者乔纳森·艾萨克能够保持健康，他们可能已经拥有了这种补充。艾萨克可能是联盟中单分钟最好的防守球员，也是上赛季单分钟影响力最大的球员之一。魔术队做了一件很棒的工作，他们利用部分薪金空间提高了艾萨克 2024-25 赛季的薪水——然后与他签署了一份递减的续约合同，平均薪水与艾萨克上赛季的薪水相当。(我怀疑这份合同也会包含伤病保护条款。)
我们几乎还没有看到安东尼·布莱克、杰特·霍华德和特里斯坦·达席尔瓦会成为什么样子。在这种情况下，把剩下的薪金空间都花在卡德维尔-波普身上是一个不错的选择。卡德维尔-波普的无球跑动投篮放大了班凯罗和瓦格纳所做的一切，而不会从他们手中夺走任何进攻机会。他和萨格斯组成了一个充满活力的防守后场。
魔术队仍然拥有财务灵活性、随处可见的可交易薪水以及他们所有的选秀权——还有一些额外的选秀权。沉睡的巨人开始苏醒。
赢家：俄克拉荷马城，在各个层面同时获胜
输家，在某种程度上：每个人都急于同时摆烂
雷霆队现在对现在和未来的定位，可能没有任何一支球队比得上。他们是最有可能蝉联西部第一种子的球队，而且在用约什·吉迪换来亚历克斯·卡鲁索并签下以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因之后，他们在多轮季后赛中更有能力保持稳定。这两个人中将会有一个人顶替吉迪的首发位置；我赌哈尔滕施泰因，仅仅是因为球队倾向于先发大个子，然后从那里缩小阵容。
哈尔滕施泰因-切特·霍姆格伦的前场组合应该在攻防两端都能很好地发挥作用，而且哈尔滕施泰因可以在霍姆格伦休息时稳定雷霆队的阵容——总的来说，还可以稳定他们的篮板球。
雷霆队在选秀权和长期薪金灵活性方面几乎没有牺牲什么。与以赛亚·乔和亚伦·威金斯的新合同简直是开玩笑。他们可以在交易市场上为任何球员开出最高的价码。
达拉斯独行侠队在季后赛中击败俄克拉荷马城后，整体实力有所提升，但在西部，他们周围的其他球队几乎都原地踏步，或者变得更糟。(最新一期的 Lowe Post 播客详细介绍了独行侠队签下克莱·汤普森，以及金州勇士队和被汤普森拒绝的追求者——洛杉矶湖人队的现状。)
雷霆队仍然拥有来自全联盟的额外首轮选秀权，包括来自一支球队的受保护的 2025 年首轮选秀权，这支球队距离在 2025 年和 2026 年备受期待的选秀大会之前，一头扎进日益拥挤的摆烂大军只有一步之遥：犹他爵士队。布鲁克林篮网队、华盛顿奇才队、波特兰开拓者队和底特律活塞队已经在不同程度上加入了这场混战，其他几支球队也很容易加入进来。
拥抱相同策略的球队越多，该策略的有效性就越低——考虑到扁平化的乐透抽签规则，摆烂更是如此。
交易劳里·马尔卡宁将为犹他买到一张通往摆烂队伍前列的单程票，而且随着米卡尔·布里奇斯现在去了纽约，马尔卡宁确实成为了联盟中最有趣的交易筹码。消息人士透露，包括圣安东尼奥马刺队、萨克拉门托国王队、迈阿密热火队和勇士队在内的多支球队都对他表示了兴趣。历史表明，犹他队的首席执行官丹尼·安吉会在有人满足他的要价后交易马尔卡宁。如果爵士队提高马尔卡宁的薪水，然后在 8 月初被允许这样做后与他签署续约合同，那么这可能是明天，也可能是几个月后的事。
犹他可以这样做，因为它有薪金空间。大多数对马尔卡宁感兴趣的球队都达到了工资帽，因此在得到他后无法与他续约。如果爵士队先与马尔卡宁续约，为感兴趣的球队提供保障，那么马尔卡宁可能会更有交易价值。
不管怎样，犹他不能再做这种事了，他们在赛季前两个月表现出色，然后管理层就放弃了，最终在第 10 顺位左右选中了新秀。
赢家：76 人队。这一次会成功，对吧？
还有很多工作要做，很多东西要证明，但对于费城管理层来说，组建由乔治、泰雷塞·马克西和乔尔·恩比德组成三巨头是一个多方面的胜利。他们用一个心怀不满的哈登换来了一些快船队的选秀权——然后从快船队挖走了他们的二号球星，坦率地说也是最可靠的球员乔治。
这接近于柏拉图式的三巨头理想形态。他们在位置谱上占据着三个不同的位置，有效地涵盖了所有位置。他们的核心技能没有太多重叠。这三个人都能投三分球，并且能在球场上的任何区域创造进攻机会。其中两人是优秀到伟大的防守者。
在费城每年的例行公事中，76 人队现在必须围绕恩比德——以及现在马克西，他终于成为了费城 MVP 的稳定搭档——重建球队的大部分阵容。他们开局不错，带回了凯利·奥布雷和安德烈·德拉蒙德，并从 76 人队总裁达里尔·莫雷的老东家休斯顿那里签下了他最喜欢的球员之一，埃里克·戈登。(不过，戈登没有得到热烈的拥抱。)
在过去的几个赛季里，阵容的混乱已经产生了负面影响。连续性很重要。波士顿凯尔特人队，仍然是衡量标准，他们拥有连续性；杰伦·布朗和杰森·塔图姆即将迎来他们在一起的第八个赛季，波士顿队带回了他们所有的冠军轮换阵容——由联盟前 40 名左右的球员中的五人领衔。
尼克斯队是另一个休赛期的赢家，也是波士顿之后费城的主要竞争对手，他们也拥有连续性，而且他们正在效仿波士顿的模式，积累顶级的阵容深度。76 人队的阵容将相对头重脚轻，更容易受到不合时宜的伤病的影响。其他几支东部强队——包括克利夫兰骑士队、魔术队和印第安纳步行者队组成的后起之秀——比费城拥有更多自上而下的阵容默契。
乔治可能是围绕恩比德建立可持续发展球队的最后、也是最好的机会。恩比德已经 30 岁了。他不会永远有耐心。费城的首要任务应该是确保恩比德在季后赛开始时保持健康。如果这意味着要减少他的出场时间，让他每场比赛的出场时间少于 65 分钟——放弃对个人奖项的考虑——那就这样吧。
除此之外，现在是恩比德在季后赛中拿出成绩的时候了。他在季后赛中的表现（相对于他的常规赛效率）低于预期。一连串的健康问题是造成这种情况的主要原因。恩比德也有一些精彩的季后赛比赛和令人难忘的时刻，包括他在 2022 年对阵多伦多猛龙队的第一轮系列赛第三场比赛中投出的那记不可思议的制胜三分球。
但他的精神在一些重要的比赛中也出现了低迷。在 2023 年东部半决赛对阵波士顿的第七场比赛中，他和几乎所有的 76 人队球员都没有出场，因为 76 人队在第六场比赛结束时表现不佳。在上赛季首轮对阵尼克斯队的一些关键时刻，恩比德看起来很胆怯——把球像烫手山芋一样传给队友。
乔治在快船队的三个季后赛之旅中，有两个赛季的表现都不够好。(他在另一个赛季的表现令人惊艳。)他的季后赛记录参差不齐。在最重要的时刻，恩比德会健康吗？他和乔治会带来必要的钢铁意志吗？这支球队的阵容深度足够吗？
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沃伊：多诺万·米切尔和骑士队达成“重磅交易”
阿德里安·沃纳罗斯基报道说，多诺万·米切尔已经与骑士队签署了一份为期三年的顶薪续约合同。
赢家：克利夫兰也平息了噪音
即使在六周前，骑士队还可能带回达柳斯·加兰、多诺万·米切尔、埃文·莫布里和贾莱特·阿伦——再加上自 1993 年以来第一支在没有勒布朗·詹姆斯的情况下赢得季后赛系列赛（虽然 unconvincingly，但仍然！）的克利夫兰球队的几乎所有配角，这在当时看来都是不可能的。
但米切尔现在已经获得了三年的续约合同——即使他的续约合同没有他们梦想的那么长，这对骑士队来说也是一次政变。事实证明，米切尔和加兰的组合比预期的更加尴尬，有传言说米切尔的回归可能会促使加兰的团队推动交易。这些传言——以及加兰的交易市场——已经平息。
这很好。加兰只有 24 岁。在经历了上赛季一系列伤病的困扰后，我赌他会强势反弹。这支球队中肯定有一支非常优秀的球队，即使要最大限度地发挥球队的潜力——就目前而言——可能需要骑士队的新任主教练肯尼·阿特金森在球队的两名基础后卫和两名关键大个子之间严格分配上场时间。骑士队有足够的阵容深度来做到这一点，尽管他们仍在寻找那种典型的 3D 侧翼球员。(消息人士称，他们对布鲁克林的多里安·芬尼-史密斯和卡梅隆·约翰逊其中之一感兴趣，但他们只有一个未来的首轮选秀权——他们 2031 年的选秀权——可以用来交易。)
在理想情况下，骑士队会等到他们上面的那些巨头们衰落——并在波士顿和纽约可能为了避开第二奢侈税线而放弃关键球员时崛起。但如果莫布里和阿伦在 2026-27 赛季与明星后卫一起签下丰厚的新合同，骑士队也可能面临财务危机。
不过，克利夫兰有年龄优势。为了让这一切真正奏效，加兰必须重申自己是一名全明星级别的球员，而莫布里必须爆发成为比这更强大的球员——拥有足够的周边技术，能够在阿伦身边茁壮成长。
赢家：休斯顿火箭队，冷静应对
火箭队的智囊团可以提前思考，并想知道杰伦·格林和阿尔佩伦·申京是否兼容到可以同时支付给他们顶薪或接近顶薪的程度——以及他们是否能够围绕申京缺乏运动能力的比赛风格建立起“冠军级别的”防守。在选中里德·谢泼德之后，火箭队现在拥有了 7 名令人感兴趣的新秀。如果有足够多的人打出来了，他们将无法全部支付他们的薪水。
但为了升级阵容而交易任何一名关键的年轻球员——包括选秀大会之前的 3 号秀——都是草率的。休斯顿对他们的任何一名年轻球员，或者他们如何融入球队，都没有足够的信息，无法在眼前的目标仅仅是为了争取进入附加赛的情况下做出如此重大的决定。
让事情慢慢发展。在奢侈税线时代，每一个拿着新秀合同的优秀球员都是宝贵的资产。火箭队对阿门·汤普森、卡姆·惠特摩尔、谢泼德和塔里·伊森——以及他们如何与申京和格林相处——几乎一无所知。(小贾巴里·史密斯可以和任何人相处。他可能永远不会成为超级巨星，但他是一个值得留下的球员——一个赢家。)
申京现在是一个防守负资产。在他脚踝受伤后，火箭队取得了 9 连胜。汤普森作为一名终结点球员接管了进攻端的油漆区。
但是火箭队在申京缺席的最后五场比赛中赢了四场，在他缺席的那九场比赛中，他们的对手都很糟糕，而且他们在赛季结束时输掉了最后九场比赛中的六场——都是在申京缺席的情况下。从这个样本中得出结论，现在交易申京是明智的，那就是玩忽职守。申京有足够的头脑和脚步，在合适的体系支持下，他的防守可以变得合格。
一些报道暗示，火箭队已经准备好与申京和格林进行比往常更强硬的续约谈判，而不是在没有任何谈判的情况下就给他们顶薪。这也是明智之举。受限制自由球员市场是他们的盟友。逼迫球员签署报价合同是有风险的——包括更短的合同——但这并不一定会走到那一步。火箭队可以看看他们的年轻球员的表现，然后再去谈判。
赢家：大部分时间都很有耐心的马刺队得到了控球之神
马刺队在自由球员市场上一直很平静，并且通过将 8 号签（罗布·迪林厄姆）交易到明尼苏达森林狼队，换取未来的选秀资产，表明他们愿意和维克托·文班亚马一起打长线。文班亚马现在已经非常出色了，马刺队可以鱼与熊掌兼得：在囤积未来资产的同时，每年都有重大的进步。
他们还有一些薪金空间，可以在这个休赛期再增加一名球员。(就我个人而言，我认为马刺队是马尔卡宁最理想的下家，尽管我怀疑这些谈判——如果真的发生的话——可能会围绕德文·瓦塞尔而破裂。)
他们的年轻球员都会进步。保罗填补了空缺。马刺队上赛季赢了 22 场比赛。我敢打赌，他们这个赛季的胜场数会在 40 场左右——并且会进入附加赛的争夺。
点击查看原文：Lowe: The Clippers, the Nuggets and the convenient fear of the second apron
Lowe: The Clippers, the Nuggets and the convenient fear of the second apron
Zach Lowe, ESPN Senior WriterJul 5, 2024, 08:00 AM ET
Now that the dust has (mostly) settled after another wild NBA free agency, it’s time to take stock of who won, who lost and where the league is now.
Jump to Lowe’s biggest free agency winners, losers and takeaways:
The Clips’ failure | Denver’s fear
Orlando’s build | OKC winning … everywhere
The Sixers’ Big Three | Boston running it back
Houston, chilling | Cleveland quieting the noise
The Spurs landing a Point God
LOSER: LA Clippers
There is a difference between failure and regret, though one can lead to the other. The Paul George-Kawhi Leonard era was a failure. Sure, it means something that a superstar chose Los Angeles’ “other” team – luring another superstar to come with him – and that they led the Clippers to their first conference finals in franchise history. Leonard and George cemented the Clippers’ relevance, bridging the gap between Lob City and the Intuit Dome.
But winning three playoff series in five seasons – none since that 2021 conference finals run – is a shocking failure. Leonard has not finished a season healthy since the Clippers’ catastrophic choke job in the Orlando, Florida, bubble in 2020.
They could never sustain chemistry – the ineffable rhythm of a team fully comfortable in its own skin. They appeared to catch it after acclimating to James Harden, only to lose hold of it – lurching around .500 after the All-Star break and limping out in the first round again. Now, it’s over.
It will hurt watching Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams (taken with one of the picks LA traded) lead the Oklahoma City Thunder on a prolonged run at the top, but pain is not regret either. The Clippers knew the risks when they traded everything. Rival executives did, too, and almost all of them agreed – some begrudgingly, some with head-nodding excitement – that they would have made the same deal under the same pressure. You stockpile assets for the chance to land the reigning Finals MVP and the guy who had just finished third in MVP voting – both in their primes.
In their statement explaining George’s departure, the Clippers cited the new second apron and the attached team-building restrictions. That could not have been the entire reason for drawing a line in the sand at granting George a fourth year on his deal – something the Philadelphia 76ers did without hesitation.
The Clippers re-signed Harden on a two-year, $70 million deal. If they were willing to bring George back on a three-year contract near Leonard’s salary – and I believe they were by the end – then they would have almost certainly blown past the second apron in the 2024-25 season. They would have also been at risk of again exceeding it in 2025-26.
Manage carefully, and they might have been able to duck the second apron in 2025-26 even with George earning $50 million. Perhaps the clarity – erasing that “might” – is the point.
Two straight years in the second apron triggers stiffer penalties, including having one future draft pick shoved down to No. 30 – not to mention the repeater tax bills. But by Year 3, Harden would be off the books. By Year 4 – the Clippers’ point of no return – both Harden and Leonard’s deals would have expired. The “blame the apron” logic does not quite hold all the way.
The Clippers appear to have simply concluded the George-Leonard team had run its course. The window had closed, and so there was no point investing much more into it. Paying George almost $60 million in that fourth year, at age 38, is almost certainly going to be bad business. The Sixers do not care. Joel Embiid is 30 with a long injury history, and they are chasing a title. The Clippers no longer were. The specter of the apron only made the choice starker.
Timing matters. Leonard signed his extension on Jan. 10, with the Clippers in the midst of a 16-3 run. Leonard was healthy, and the Clippers looked like contenders – worth investing in. For whatever reason – perhaps because he understood his leverage – George demurred until after the season.
By then, Leonard was hurt and the Clippers had lost in Round 1 – again. The West had passed them by. What was the point in caving to George’s demands?
One might wonder today what point there is to having Harden on the team. He’s good, and without much of a market, accepting of a shorter and cheaper deal. He and Leonard can keep the team afloat as they move into the Toilet Palace. The Clippers cannot tear everything down, since the Thunder and now the Sixers – courtesy of the Harden deal – control their first-round picks through 2029.
The Clippers used their newfound wiggle room to ink Derrick Jones Jr., old friend Nicolas Batum and Kris Dunn to smart deals. They will be solid – deep, maybe faster and bouncier. You can already see the feel-good headlines when the Clippers start 16-11: Frisky new-look Clips bound into new era!
But the upside and the margin for error aren’t there. What happens now if Leonard gets hurt?
In the frothy summer of 2019, the little-sibling teams in the league’s glamor markets scored audacious offseason coups and demanded to be heard. In the five seasons since, the Clippers and Brooklyn Nets have won four combined playoffs series.
The Clippers might be in purgatory again. The Nets are tanking. The Lakers are still king in L.A., and the New York Knicks have a chance to win it all. Yikes.
LOSER: The Denver Nuggets and the convenient fear of the second apron
The Nuggets can contend for titles as long as Jamal Murray and the world’s best player are healthy, but the downgrade from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to Christian Braun will show itself against the best teams in the playoffs. There is also the backup-to-the-backup problem; someone outside Denver’s rotation now has to fill Braun’s reserve role – just as the Nuggets scrambled to fill Bruce Brown’s minutes last season.
Braun is a solid, improving role player who can guard up in size better than Caldwell-Pope. But he is not yet in Caldwell-Pope’s universe as a shooter, and shooting is what Denver needs most from that spot. They already attempted the fewest 3s in the league last season, and even for a team built around Jokic there is a math threshold you have to hit.
The Nuggets will blame the apron, and there is some truth to the idea that the apron is a convenient scapegoat for owners who don’t want to spend. A running joke around the NBA is that “no owner wants to be called cheap at the country club.”
Matching the Magic’s three-year, $66 million offer for Caldwell-Pope could have – could have – set the Nuggets up for three straight years above the second apron. Escaping the second apron is hard. The league removes a lot of roster-building tools. You can reduce your salary only in trades, and it might become harder to dump money as more teams approach the aprons. You might end up stuck with the players you have and (in Denver’s case) paying enormous repeater tax bills.
The counter, of course, is that being “stuck” with a championship-level roster is the whole point of owning an NBA team. The Nuggets also could have ducked the second apron this season by salary dumping Zeke Nnaji, though teams with space would have squeezed Denver for draft picks. The Nuggets are already out several future picks, so they are running low on ammo to grease the wheels on apron-related dumps.
Ducking the second apron in either the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons with Caldwell-Pope on the books would have been damned near impossible without sloughing away a major salary along the way – plus perhaps another role player in addition to Nnaji. Even without Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets could be in danger of exceeding the second apron in 2026-27 given potential new deals for Murray, Aaron Gordon, Braun and Peyton Watson.
There were plausible ways of evading the second apron this season, keeping Caldwell-Pope and putting off painful choices one year. Those pathways were tight. But it was possible, and there is some merit to absorbing the penalties and paying through the nose to maintain a team you know could win the title.
There is also merit to Nuggets GM Calvin Booth arguing this situation is precisely the reason you draft players you think could help soon: Braun, Watson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, Hunter Tyson and now DaRon Holmes II. (Any GM parroting that argument is surely aware it gives cover to their bosses.)
Booth is intensely proud of his draft record. Those players had better be ready. Strawther looked ready before injuries short-circuited his season. He should be a good fit buzzing around Jokic.
Bottom line: The second apron is both a real impediment and something that stirs preexisting frugality.
Back in 2018, I wrote about the moral dilemmas of the new supermax contract – how some teams faced painful choices between paying stars gigantic, ever-rising contracts into their 30s, or trading them away. Had the NBA (and its team governors) accidentally introduced another wrinkle cutting against roster continuity?
With the help of several executives, I proposed a bunch of rule changes (some realistic, some pie in the sky) designed to mitigate the financial pain of keeping teams together: amnesty clauses, bonus cap exceptions, other minutia. The most relevant: What if supermax deals for homegrown players didn’t count in their entirety for luxury tax purposes? Even if that merely saved billionaires some scratch, was that worth it to help great teams stick together?
It feels like there is room to discuss something like that in conjunction with the second apron.
WINNER: The Orlando Magic, starting to build it
At some point, the Magic might need one more near-All-Star-level player to vault into the contenders circle. That point does not have to be now. The Magic can wait to see how far Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner advance – and what that tells them about the kind of talent infusion they really need.
They might already have that infusion on hand if Jalen Suggs makes another jump, or Jonathan Isaac can stay healthy. Isaac is probably the single best per-minute defender in the league and was one of the most impactful per-minute players overall last season. The Magic did great work using some of their cap space to bump up Isaac’s 2024-25 salary – and then sign him to a declining extension with an average salary around what Isaac earned last season. (I suspect the deal will also include injury protections.)
We have barely seen what Anthony Black, Jett Howard and Tristan da Silva might become. In that environment, spending the rest of their cap space on Caldwell-Pope is a fine move. Caldwell-Pope’s in-motion shooting amplifies everything Banchero and Wagner do without taking any of the offense from their hands. He and Suggs form a dynamite defensive backcourt.
The Magic still have financial flexibility, tradable salaries everywhere and all their draft picks – plus some extras. The sleeping giant is starting to wake up.
WINNER: Oklahoma City, winning on every level at the same time
LOSERS, in a way: Everyone rushing to tank at the same time
It’s likely no team has ever been better positioned for the present and future at once than the Thunder are now. They stand as favorites to repeat as the No. 1 seed in the West, and they are much better fortified to navigate multiple playoff series after swapping Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso and signing Isaiah Hartenstein. One of those two will start in Giddey’s place; I’d wager on Hartenstein, only because teams tend to start bigger and downsize from there.
The Hartenstein-Chet Holmgren frontcourt should work well enough on both ends, and Hartenstein can stabilize the Thunder when Holmgren rests – and stabilize their rebounding in general.
The Thunder sacrificed almost nothing in terms of picks and long-term cap flexibility. New deals for Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins are almost comically team-friendly. They could outbid anyone for any player on the trade market.
The Dallas Mavericks got a little better on balance after vanquishing Oklahoma City in the playoffs, but almost everyone else around them in the West mostly stood pat or got a little worse. (The most recent episode of the Lowe Post podcast has much more on the Mavericks signing Klay Thompson, and the current state of both the Golden State Warriors and the suitor Thompson jilted – the Los Angeles Lakers.)
The Thunder still own extra first-round picks from all over the league, including a protected 2025 first-rounder from one team that is one move away from plunging into the increasingly crowded tanking race ahead of much-anticipated drafts in 2025 and 2026: the Utah Jazz. The Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, Portland Trail Blazers and Detroit Pistons are already in that slap fight to varying degrees, and a few other teams could easily join them.
The more teams embrace the same strategy, the less effective that strategy is – even more so for tanking given the flattened lottery odds.
Trading Lauri Markkanen would buy Utah a one-way ticket toward the front of the tank line, and Markkanen indeed stands as perhaps the league’s most intriguing trade chip with Mikal Bridges now in New York. A pile of teams have shown interest in him, including the San Antonio Spurs, Sacramento Kings, Miami Heat and Warriors, sources said. History suggests Danny Ainge, Utah’s CEO, will move Markkanen once someone meets his price. That could be tomorrow or months from now if the Jazz raise Markkanen’s salary and then sign him to a contract extension once they are allowed to do so in early August.
Utah can do that because it has cap space. Most teams interested in Markkanen are capped out and thus could not extend him upon acquiring him. It’s possible Markkanen would have more trade value if the Jazz extend him first, providing security for interested teams.
Either way, Utah cannot keep doing this thing where they are frisky for two months before the front office pulls the plug and they end up picking around No. 10.
WINNER: The Sixers. This time it will work, right?
There is so much work to be done, so much to prove, but forming a big three of George, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid is a multidimensional triumph for Philly’s front office. They traded a disgruntled Harden for some Clippers picks – and then plucked away the Clippers’ second-best and frankly most reliable player in George.
This is close to the platonic ideal of a big three. They occupy three different spots on the positional spectrum, effectively encompassing all of it. Their core skills do not overlap much. All three can shoot 3s and create offense from all areas of the floor. Two of the three are good to great defenders.
In an annual Philly ritual, the Sixers now must reconstruct most of the team around Embiid – and now Maxey, finally a stable running mate for Philly’s MVP. They’re off to a solid start, bringing back Kelly Oubre Jr. and Andre Drummond, and adding one of Sixers president Daryl Morey’s old Houston favorites in Eric Gordon. (No tarmac hugs for Gordon, though.)
The roster chaos has taken a toll in past seasons. Continuity matters. The Boston Celtics, still the measuring stick, have it; Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are entering their eighth season together, and Boston is bringing back its entire championship rotation – headed by five of the top 40 or so players in the league.
The Knicks, another offseason winner and Philly’s chief rival behind Boston, have it too, and they are emulating Boston’s model in compiling top-end depth. The Sixers will be comparably top-heavy and more vulnerable to ill-timed injuries. Several other strong East teams – including the up-and-comer brigade of the Cleveland Cavaliers, Magic and Indiana Pacers – have more top-to-bottom reps together than Philly.
George represents perhaps the last, best chance at building something sustainable around Embiid. Embiid is 30. He was not going to be patient forever. Philly’s top priority should be making sure Embiid is healthy when the playoffs start. If that means cutting his minutes and playing him fewer than 65 games – foregoing awards consideration – so be it.
Beyond that, it’s put up or shut up time for Embiid in the playoffs. He has underperformed in the postseason (relative to his regular-season efficiency) by a larger degree than would be expected. A sad litany of health issues has driven a lot of that. Embiid has had some huge playoff games and flashbulb moments, including his outrageous game-winning 3-pointer in Game 3 in the first round against the Toronto Raptors in 2022.
But his spirit has also flagged in some big games. He (and almost every Sixer) no-showed in Game 7 in the 2023 conference semifinals against Boston after the Sixers sputtered at the end of Game 6. In some crunch-time moments against the Knicks in the first round last season, Embiid looked skittish – hot-potatoing the ball to teammates.
George was not good enough in two of his three playoff runs with the Clippers. (He was sensational in the other.) His postseason record is scattershot. In the biggest moments, will Embiid be healthy? Will he and George bring the requisite steel? Will this team be deep enough?
LOSER: The other East champions of the 2020s
What is the case for optimism with the Milwaukee Bucks? Well, they blitzed opponents by 17.5 points per 100 possessions when Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo played together. Middleton finished the season healthy, averaging 25 points on 49% shooting with Antetokounmpo and then Lillard got injured in Milwaukee’s first-round loss to the Pacers.
Lillard and Antetokounmpo will get a proper training camp – time to unlock their pick-and-roll chemistry. Lillard should be past the roughest part of his adjustment period. Doc Rivers can settle in as head coach.
But even when healthy, this team did not put together even a two-week stretch that made you think: OK, it’s clicking. The Bucks were just never that good. Everyone is a year older. The young guys are unproven. Middleton is an annual injury risk. The rumblings about Milwaukee at least considering Brook Lopez trades make sense on one level – this team could use a shake-up – but any such move would raise fundamental questions about the team’s defensive identity.
Meanwhile, New York and Philly got better. The Celtics have championship mettle. The Magic, Cavs and Pacers are rising. You can never count out Milwaukee’s big three, but their journey is getting harder.
That’s seven teams, and we haven’t mentioned the Miami Heat – who finished sixth or worse in three of the past four seasons. It’s not as dire as it seems. Miami barely got to play with Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro available together. Nikola Jovic made a leap that presaged another. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is legit. Miami could unlock enough future first-round picks to get into trade talks for some stars.
But Boston widened the gap and shed the postseason shakes that troubled it in past series against Miami. The Heat are nearing a crossroads.
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Celtics fired up during championship parade through Boston
The Boston Celtics are having a great time as they celebrate their championship.
WINNER: The Celtics, running it back as the all-in NBA chases them
Every champion inspires copycats, but the Boston model is harder to mimic than it might appear. The trades for Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Kristaps Porzingis were masterstrokes – with quirks of timing and situational context that helped Boston execute them at acceptable costs. If it were easy to compile so many top-50 players, everyone would do it.
It’s also too expensive to keep together for long. Boston had a window to hoard all this talent before White and Tatum cycled onto fat new deals. That happens in 2025-26. The Celtics are set up to blast through the second apron and eat brutal repeater tax bills as long as they retain their entire core. That might be untenable someday soon.
The Knicks took advantage of a similar window to stockpile talent before several key players – including Jalen Brunson – sign massive new extensions. The time pressure wrought by the second apron is yet another variable nudging teams toward all-in transactions when they sense a real chance to win.
The Atlanta Hawks made what turned out to be one of the smaller of these trades when they flipped three first-round picks to the Spurs for Dejounte Murray two years ago. They recouped maybe 85% of that drafty equity last week when they sent Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans for Larry Nance Jr., Dyson Daniels and two future first-round picks.
That is a pittance compared to what the Knicks gave up for Mikal Bridges. The difference is in the context.
New York believes – rightly – it is not far from making the Finals. The Knicks’ financial window with this full roster could be tight. They could not wait for future disgruntled stars, nor be picky about price.
The Pelicans and the Hawks reside closer to middle, without the same urgency.
The Hawks are resetting their roster and going somewhat younger behind No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher. Trae Young seems perhaps slightly out of place with that direction, but he’s only 25. Jalen Johnson, the team’s one true untouchable, is 22 – between Young and the coming youth movement.
Young is potent enough to keep the Hawks around .500, and they don’t have much incentive to tank so long as the Spurs control their first-round picks through 2027 thanks to the original Murray trade. The smoothest way to reclaim those picks is trading Young to the Spurs, but San Antonio has not shown much recent interest in that, sources said. The Spurs understand the potential value of those picks, and they (for now) appear to favor holding them hostage over swapping them back to Atlanta.
The Lakers, too, have shown little recent interest in Young, sources said. That could change if the price drops to L.A.'s liking. But the market for Young is as chilly as it has ever been.
Bridges’ game also fits more neatly than Murray’s into a classic contending roster. A lot of Murray’s value comes from having the ball, and every legit contender will have a lead ball handler better than Murray. His value as a secondary player is murkier. Murray is smaller than Bridges, not as versatile or stingy on defense. Murray has become a better 3-point shooter, but Bridges is still more accurate – with more experience in a spot-up role.
The Pelicans needed a real point guard with crunch-time poise, and Murray can toggle into a floor-spacing role around Zion Williamson if he replicates his 39% mark on catch-and-shoot 3s from last season.
New Orleans now has a jumble of ball-dominant players. Another move is coming. For both teams, this Murray trade is a nice in-between-stations move – the trade that reorients the roster before the next big directional shift.
WINNER: The Houston Rockets, chilling out
It’s fine for the Rockets’ brain trust to think ahead and wonder if Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are compatible to the point of paying both maximum or near-maximum salaries – and if they could ever construct a “championship-level” defense around Sengun’s ground-bound game. After picking Reed Sheppard, the Rockets now have seven interesting prospects. If enough hit, they will not be able to pay them all.
But it would have been rash to trade any key young player – including the No. 3 pick before the draft – for a veteran upgrade. Houston does not have enough information about any of its young players, or how they fit, to make a decision of that magnitude when the immediate upside would have been fighting to stay above the play-in.
Let this thing marinate. Every good player on a rookie-scale contract is a precious asset in the apron era. The Rockets barely know anything about Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Sheppard and Tari Eason – and how they fit with Sengun and Green. (Jabari Smith Jr. fits with everyone. He might never become a superstar, but he’s a keeper – a winner.)
Sengun, right now, is a minus defender. The Rockets went on a nine-game winning streak after he suffered an ankle injury. Thompson took over the paint on offense as a rim-runner.
But the Rockets won four out of Sengun’s last five games, their opposition in that nine-game streak without him was abysmal, and they lost six of their last nine to end the season – all without Sengun. Concluding from that sample that trading Sengun now is wise would have been malpractice. Sengun has the smarts and footwork to become passable on defense with the right support system around him.
Several reports have suggested the Rockets are ready to take a harder-than-usual stance in extension talks with Sengun and Green instead of conceding the max without any negotiations. That’s smart, too. Restricted free agency is their ally. There are risks in pushing players toward offer sheets – including shorter contracts – but it doesn’t have to reach that point. The Rockets can see how their young players perform and negotiate from there.
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Woj: Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers agree to ‘massive deal’
Adrian Wojnarowski reports that Donovan Mitchell has signed a three-year max contract extension with the Cavaliers.
WINNER: Cleveland quiets the noise, too
It seemed improbable even six weeks ago that the Cavs might bring back all four of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen – plus almost the entire supporting cast from the first Cleveland team to win a playoff series (unconvincingly, but still!) without LeBron James since 1993.
But Mitchell is now under contract for three more seasons – a coup for the Cavs even if his extension is not as long as they might have dreamed. The Mitchell-Garland fit has proven more awkward than expected, and there were rumblings Mitchell’s return might spur Garland’s camp to push for a trade. Those rumblings – and Garland’s trade market – have quieted.
And that’s fine. Garland is just 24. I’d bet on a nice bounce-back after a plague of injuries derailed him last season. There is a very good team in here somewhere, even if maximizing it – for now – might require Kenny Atkinson, the Cavs’ new head coach, to stagger minutes pretty strictly between the team’s two foundational guards and its two key bigs. The Cavs have the depth to pull that off, though they are still searching for that archetypal 3-and-D wing. (They’d have interest in one of Dorian Finney-Smith and Cameron Johnson in Brooklyn, sources said, but they have only one future first-round pick – their 2031 pick – available to trade.)
In an ideal world, the Cavs would wait out the juggernauts above them – and rise up when Boston and New York might shed key players to avoid the second apron. But the Cavs, too, might face a financial crunch if Mobley and Allen join the star guards on hefty new deals in 2026-27.
Still, Cleveland has age on its side. For this to really work, Garland has to reassert himself as an All-Star candidate and Mobley has to blow up into something more than that – with enough of a perimeter game to thrive next to Allen.
WINNER: The mostly patient Spurs landing the Point God
The Spurs have been mostly quiet in free agency and signaled a willingness to play the long game with Victor Wembanyama by trading the No. 8 pick (Rob Dillingham) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for future draft assets. Wembanyama is so good already that the Spurs can have the best of both worlds: major year-to-year improvement while hoarding future assets.
They still have some cap flexibility to add another player this offseason. (They are my personal favorite Markkanen destination, though I suspect those negotiations – should they happen – could fall apart around Devin Vassell.)
Their young guys will all improve. Paul fills a need. The Spurs won 22 games last season. I’ll bet they’re around 40 – and in the play-in race – this season.
via ESPN