由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
克里斯·赫林（Chris Herring）
凯文·佩尔顿（Kevin Pelton）
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凯文·佩尔顿
ESPN 高级作家
《职业篮球展望》系列丛书合著者 前印第安纳步行者队顾问 WARP 评级和 SCHOENE 体系的开发者 2024 年 6 月 20 日，美国东部时间上午 10:00
随着波士顿凯尔特人队战胜卢卡·东契奇和达拉斯独行侠队，NBA 决赛正式落下帷幕，所有 30 支 NBA 球队都迎来了休赛期。
亚特兰大老鹰队获得了今年 NBA 选秀大会（美国东部时间周三晚上 8 点在 ABC/ESPN 播出；周四第二轮比赛从美国东部时间下午 4 点开始在 ESPN 播出）的状元签，圣安东尼奥马刺队和波特兰开拓者队分别拥有今年彩票区的两个签位。三天后，美国东部时间下午 6 点，自由球员市场正式开启，保罗·乔治、勒布朗·詹姆斯、泰瑞斯·马克西、詹姆斯·哈登、OG·阿努诺比等超级巨星将接受市场的检验。
巨大的决策在等待着，数十亿美元的资金将面临抉择。湖人队是否应该尝试拿下老鹰队的其中一位后卫？PG 应该去哪里？哪些球队应该继续阵容不变？以下是所有 30 支 NBA 球队最佳的休赛期方案。
**跳转至球队：**ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
亚特兰大老鹰队
平庸的老鹰队需要对球队发展方向做出重大承诺。他们应该选择的方向是：拥抱年轻球员，围绕着他们使用状元签选中的球员进行重建，同时将 25 岁的特雷·杨交易出去，特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 自 2018 年以来一直是球队的门面。老鹰队可以再次寻求与湖人队进行交易，但湖人队必须放弃一些选秀权、奥斯汀·里夫斯、八村塁以及加贝·文森特或贾里德·范德比尔特其中一人才能促成这笔交易。
今年选秀大会的状元签与维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 完全不同，他是去年选秀大会的状元签。但通过交易走特雷·杨，将球队的指挥权交到德容特·穆雷和老鹰队使用状元签选中的球员手中，可以让球队更具防守性，并避免在围绕特雷·杨的防守短板建立防守体系时所面临的挑战。—— 克里斯·赫林
波士顿凯尔特人队
凯尔特人在季后赛中一路过关斩将，最终夺得 NBA 冠军，因此建议球队保持阵容不变并不算争议。但考虑到球队已经超过了第二工资帽，这样做将会让凯尔特人队的管理层付出巨大的代价。杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 有资格签下一份 NBA 历史上最丰厚的合同，为期五年，价值 3.15 亿美元。（杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 去年夏天签下的五年 3.04 亿美元的超级顶薪合同是现有的最高纪录。）
球队总裁布拉德·史蒂文斯 (Brad Stevens) 还需要弄清楚如何续约德里克·怀特 (Derrick White)，他有资格签下一份为期四年，价值 1.26 亿美元的合同，以及神射手萨姆·豪泽 (Sam Hauser)。锁住球队关键球员将是一件好事，即使这会导致巨大的经济成本。—— 克里斯·赫林
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史蒂芬·A. 列出了他心目中的 2025 年争冠球队：“凯尔特人不会消失”
史蒂芬·A. 史密斯解释了为什么凯尔特人队将继续统治未来，并列举了一些可以与他们竞争 NBA 冠军的球队。
布鲁克林篮网队
最重要的是，篮网队需要弄清楚留住自由球员尼克·克莱克斯顿 (Nic Claxton) 需要付出什么，然后给出相应的价码。25 岁的克莱克斯顿是联盟中最优秀的护框大个子之一。
除此之外，球队需要留意联盟中那些可能希望通过交易离开当前困境的陷入困境的球星。（篮网队拥有七张未来的首轮签。）
米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 表现出色——任何球队都想要得到他——但本赛季的表现表明，他不是一个足以成为球队第一选择的主导型组织者。因此，篮网队应该寻求以一个合理的但不是顶薪的价格与布里奇斯续约。此外，为 22 岁的凯姆·托马斯 (Cam Thomas) 找到一份合理的续约合同也是明智之举，他在第三个赛季场均得到 22.5 分，并且正在提升自己的全面技术。—— 克里斯·赫林
夏洛特黄蜂队
黄蜂队必须决定如何处理自由球员迈尔斯·布里奇斯 (Miles Bridges)，他将是今年夏天自由球员市场上最好的前锋之一。26 岁的布里奇斯在 2022-23 赛季因承认犯有重罪家庭暴力罪而缺席了整个赛季，他在上个赛季复出，场均为黄蜂队得到 21.0 分和 7.3 个篮板。但签下他并将其交易到其他球队将是最好的选择。
黄蜂队——进攻效率联盟倒数第三，防守效率倒数第二，并且正在从新的教练和管理层开始重建——需要各方面的帮助。他们应该避免将过多的资源投入到布里奇斯和拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 身上，鲍尔在过去四个赛季中缺席了 134 场比赛，而是应该围绕 2023 年的榜眼秀布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller) 建队，并专注于今年选秀大会第 6 位签位的最佳球员，以继续为未来构建基础。—— 克里斯·赫林
芝加哥公牛队
任何形式的改变，任何形式的改变，对于公牛队来说都是一件好事，他们是过去三年中唯一一支没有在交易截止日期前后进行过交易的 NBA 球队。
公牛队需要做些什么来摆脱他们所处的常年挣扎于季后赛附加赛的困境。为摇摆人扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine) 寻找一个新的东家，并获得一两个不错的资产，将是实现这一目标的最清晰途径。
让自由球员德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan) 回归似乎对一些人来说是错误的决定，但这位即将年满 35 岁的球员仍然非常高效，他出色的组织能力可以帮助球队进攻。公牛队还应该与受限制自由球员帕特里克·威廉姆斯 (Patrick Williams) 达成一项合理的协议，这位 22 岁的球员已经展现出出色的防守能力，并且对于他的体型来说，他还是一位不错的远投射手。
最后，即使朗佐·鲍尔 (Lonzo Ball) 在左膝受伤后缺席了 2 年半，能够在本赛季回归，公牛队仍然需要一位经验丰富的后卫——也许是像克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 这样的球员，如果他被金州勇士队放弃的话——来组织球队进攻。—— 克里斯·赫林
克利夫兰骑士队
笼罩在这支球队所有问题的疑问很简单：多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 会签下一份为期四年，价值 2.08 亿美元的顶薪续约合同，长期留在克利夫兰吗？如果答案是肯定的，那么球队的方向就会更加清晰。
尽管如此，球队仍然面临着艰难的抉择。关于拆散充满天赋的后场组合——米切尔和达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland)——以及天赋异禀的前场组合——贾雷特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 和埃文·莫布利 (Evan Mobley)——的建议越来越响亮——尤其是在骑士队在赛季中期打出一波热潮，并且在外线投篮变得更加愿意和高效的时候——当时加兰和莫布利都因伤缺阵。
说实话，球队应该探索交易，甚至进行交易，涉及加兰和阿伦，以期获得更深的阵容深度和更大的空间。一旦所有这些问题都得到解决，一个更容易的决定：球队应该将 23 岁的莫布利锁定在顶薪的新秀续约合同中。—— 克里斯·赫林
达拉斯独行侠队
独行侠队已经完成了最困难的工作，他们在卢卡·东契奇身边围绕了一群足够有天赋的球员，最终与凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 作为唯一一位年龄超过 27 岁的核心球员一起打进了 NBA 决赛。
这个休赛期的任务是削减大约 1000 万美元的工资支出，让独行侠队有能力在德里克·琼斯· Jr. (Derrick Jones Jr.) 表现出色，以联盟最低工资为球队效力并展现出优秀的防守能力后，利用非纳税者中产特例为他提供一份合同。理想情况下，独行侠队会将蒂姆·哈达威· Jr. (Tim Hardaway Jr.) 价值 1620 万美元的到期合同拆分成更小的部分，以便将其放弃，同时利用现金和少量第二轮签。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
丹佛掘金队
肯塔维厄斯·考德威尔-波普 (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) 的球员选项让掘金队陷入了困境。如果考德威尔-波普没有执行价值 1540 万美元的选项，掘金队将超过奢侈税线，这意味着他们可能只有 520 万美元的奢侈税中产特例来替代他。
对于掘金队来说，最好的情况是说服考德威尔-波普执行选项并延长合同，将更高的薪资推迟到未来几年，届时工资帽将上涨，考德威尔-波普也能得到他想要的薪资。如果贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 也在今年夏天签下一份续约合同，而不是等待可能的入选全明星阵容和超级顶薪合同资格，那么掘金队就可以让他们的首发五虎全部签下到 2025-26 赛季。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
底特律活塞队
在经历了糟糕的 2023-24 赛季之后，活塞队这个休赛期需要做的有很多，这个赛季他们以 14 胜 68 负的战绩收尾，球队还解雇了教练蒙蒂·威廉姆斯 (Monty Williams)，而他的合同还剩下 6500 万美元。
活塞队在进攻、防守、三分球命中率、允许的罚球率、犯规失误率和造成失误率方面都排在了联盟的倒数五名。
第一步应该是锁定控球后卫凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham)，他是在 2021 年被球队选中为状元秀，也是球队的核心球员，给他一份为期五年，价值 2.15 亿美元的续约合同。然后，活塞队应该拒绝埃文·富尼耶 (Evan Fournier) 价值 1900 万美元的球队选项，这样他们就可以拥有超过 6000 万美元的薪资空间——这笔资金足以让他们在自由球员市场上既能够用更有力的即战力老将提升球队的实力，又能填补球队在攻防两端的众多漏洞。—— 克里斯·赫林
金州勇士队
在支付了巨额奢侈税却错过了季后赛之后，勇士队希望能够避开新的第二工资帽。这样做可以让他们在第一年拥有超过 4000 万美元的薪资空间，用于重新签下克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson)，并利用纳税者中产特例重新签下或替代保罗。
通过留下大部分上赛季的阵容，勇士队将会押注于乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 和布兰登·波齐姆斯基 (Brandin Podziemski) 的成长，以及德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 避免像 2023-24 赛季那样出现停赛。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
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温德霍斯特向麦卡菲更新了克莱与勇士队之间的最新情况
布莱恩·温德霍斯特向帕特·麦卡菲详细介绍了勇士队与克莱·汤普森之间谈判的进展情况。
休斯敦火箭队
火箭队的重大突破发生在彩票区，他们凭借布鲁克林篮网队的帮助，跃升至第三顺位。这使火箭队处于理想的位置，可以选中肯塔基后卫里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)，他是基于统计的预测（比如我自己的预测）中的一颗闪耀之星，他是一个理想的球员，可以作为火箭队新秀球员的完美补充，他是一位精准的射手。
火箭队的球迷可能梦想着通过一笔重磅交易让球队重返季后赛，但现在明智的做法是看看他们在 3 月份的强势表现是否能随着第三顺位的选秀权以及健康的史蒂文·亚当斯 (Steven Adams) 和塔里·伊森 (Tari Eason) 的加入而延续。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
印第安纳步行者队
步行者队在本赛季取得了令人印象深刻的进步，他们创造了联盟第二高效的进攻，并且意外地打进了东部决赛。
球队似乎已经完成了他们的首要任务：签下前锋帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 一份为期四年，价值 1.895 亿美元的顶薪合同。步行者队还应该留下受限制自由球员奥比·托平 (Obi Toppin)，他场均得到 10 分和接近 4 个篮板，投篮命中率高达 70%，三分球命中率为 40%。—— 克里斯·赫林
洛杉矶快船队
快船队希望留在洛杉矶的诱惑足以说服保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 签下一份类似于队友卡哇伊·莱昂纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 在赛季中期签下的低于顶薪的续约合同，而不是在拒绝了他的球员选项后，在其他地方寻找一份顶薪合同。然后他们希望詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 签下一份类似于 ESPN 的鲍比·马克斯 (Bobby Marks) 提出的三年 9000 万美元的合同。
这并不会阻止快船队在下个赛季进入第二工资帽。但它将有助于他们到 2026-27 赛季摆脱第二工资帽，届时他们将在 2032 年的选秀权可能会被移到选秀的末端。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
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温迪向麦卡菲分析了保罗·乔治在休赛期的选择
布莱恩·温德霍斯特向帕特·麦卡菲分析了保罗·乔治在 NBA 休赛期的三个选择。
洛杉矶湖人队
丹吉洛·拉塞尔 (D’Angelo Russell) 选择执行价值 1870 万美元的球员选项，而不是参加自由球员市场，这将让湖人队在今年夏天拥有更多的交易选择。
一旦他们在本月的选秀大会上选中了第 17 位签位的球员，湖人队就可以将这个签位以及 2029 年和 2031 年的首轮签交易出去，这些应该足以得到来自老鹰队的穆雷。如果湖人队能够用第 55 位签选中布朗尼·詹姆斯 (Bronny James)，从而帮助说服勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 在今年夏天签下长期合同，或者在他执行球员选项后进行续约，那就再好不过了。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
孟菲斯灰熊队
对于灰熊队来说，最重要的是球员们能够重返健康，他们上赛季因伤病或疾病缺席了联盟最高的 561 场比赛——比排名第二的球队多了 185 场。
灰熊队接下来需要在亚当斯上赛季被交易到休斯敦后，寻找一名中锋的帮助，他们可以使用第九顺位的选秀权或非纳税者中产特例的一部分来完成这个目标。如果康涅狄格大学的唐纳文·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 在选秀之夜跌到很后面，那么灰熊队应该准备好向上交易来得到他。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
迈阿密热火队
没有多少球队比热火队处境更艰难，他们在休赛期面临着巨大的薪资压力和需要回答的难题。
在上一年的休赛期失去了轮换阵容中的关键球员麦克斯·斯特鲁斯 (Max Strus) 和文森特之后，热火队可能会在自由球员市场上失去锋线球员凯尔布·马丁 (Caleb Martin) 和海伍德·海史密斯 (Haywood Highsmith)。(ESPN 的马克斯预计热火队将会成为一个第二工资帽的纳税球队，这将进一步限制球队的支出，如果马丁选择执行合同的最后一年或与球队续约。 )
与巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 签下一份长期续约合同是唯一一项无需考虑的决定，这位 26 岁的球员正处于巅峰状态，是联盟中最好的、最全面的防守球员之一。吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 也符合续约资格，并且据信他想要一份顶薪合同——球队总裁帕特·莱利 (Pat Riley) 说他正在努力解决这个问题。“除非你是那种会一直留在球场上，场场都保持健康的球员，否则我们不会投入那么多资源”，莱利谈到巴特勒时说道，巴特勒将在本休赛期年满 35 岁，在过去五个赛季中，他平均每个赛季缺席了 20 场常规赛。
如果热火队能说服巴特勒接受低于顶薪的合同，那就应该这样做。无论如何，球队看起来很可能会像往常一样：在很大程度上依赖内部发展和进步，因为他们的薪资空间有限。—— 克里斯·赫林
密尔沃基雄鹿队
对于雄鹿队来说，在连续第二年出现字母哥·安特托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 缺席季后赛比赛的情况下，认为他们只需要保持健康就能有机会赢得另一个总冠军是合理的。（球队实际上已经连续三个季后赛出现阵容不整，可以追溯到 2022 年东部半决赛中克里斯·米德尔顿 (Khris Middleton) 韧带撕裂的伤势，当时雄鹿队试图卫冕 NBA 冠军。）
但在分析上个赛季以及雄鹿队对达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 的融入后，有一件事很清楚：球队的防守——有了利拉德，没有明星防守球员朱鲁·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)——已经不像过去几年那样拥有冠军级别的水平。到赛季结束时，雄鹿队仅仅排在第 19 位。（在教练道格·里弗斯 (Doc Rivers) 和帕特·贝弗利 (Pat Beverley) 进入球队阵容后，他们在全明星赛后的表现有所提升，但仍然低于平均水平，排名第 17 位。）因此，球队应该寻求一位年轻、全面、能够在进攻端防守的球员，来帮助利拉德减轻防守压力，无论是通过选秀还是交易。—— 克里斯·赫林
明尼苏达森林狼队
森林狼队首先需要弄清楚在潜在买家马克·洛尔 (Marc Lore) 和亚历克斯·罗德里格斯 (Alex Rodriguez) 开始调解以解决他们关于从格伦·泰勒 (Glen Taylor) 手中接管多数股权的争议后，谁将成为球队的老板，格伦·泰勒在 3 月份宣布他们错过了完成这笔交易的截止日期。
无论谁拥有球队，都必须做好准备支付巨额奢侈税，因为安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 的续约合同即将生效。尽管森林狼队应该探索交易唐斯，目的是为了通过替补球员尼克尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 和纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 在一年后成为自由球员来减轻未来的薪资压力，但正确的做法可能是暂时保留核心阵容。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
新奥尔良鹈鹕队
随着全明星前锋布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 的合同进入最后一年，鹈鹕队应该将他交易，换取一名更适合与锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson) 和其他年轻球员一起打球的球员。
理想情况下，这个球员应该是克利夫兰的加兰，他比英格拉姆提供更多远投和组织能力，并为特雷·墨菲三世 (Trey Murphy III) 腾出一个首发位置。鹈鹕队明智的做法是延长墨菲的合同，否则他将在明年夏天成为受限制自由球员。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
纽约尼克斯队
除了 NBA 冠军凯尔特人队之外，也许没有哪支球队比尼克斯队更应该对基本保持现状感到满意。当然，这项任务将伴随着高昂的代价，因为防守悍将 OG·阿努诺比 (OG Anunoby) 和中锋伊赛亚·哈滕斯坦 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 都是自由球员，他们在市场上可以得到高价合同。（其他可能会影响老板吉姆·多兰 (Jim Dolan) 钱包的事情包括：教练汤姆·锡伯杜 (Tom Thibodeau) 和杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 的潜在续约。）
尼克斯队可以并且应该交易替补中锋米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson)，为哈滕斯坦腾出薪资空间，并且应该放弃替补球员博扬·博格达诺维奇 (Bojan Bogdanovic)，他的价值 1900 万美元的合同在本赛季结束后只有部分保障。尼克斯队可以找到一个更适合他的替补球员。
球队拥有可以用来交易一位能够与布伦森并肩作战的真正球星的选秀权，但这个阵容值得先以完整阵容进行比赛，然后再采取这样的行动。—— 克里斯·赫林
俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
大胆的做法是雷霆队努力在自由球员市场上签下乔治，将他带回俄克拉荷马城。这可能需要交易乌斯曼·迪恩 (Ousmane Dieng)、肯里奇·威廉姆斯 (Kenrich Williams)、今年的第 12 位选秀权以及额外的薪资来创造必要的薪资空间。
雷霆队拥有足够深度的阵容来实现这一点，签下乔治肯定会让他们成为西部夺冠热门。更现实的情况是，雷霆队这个休赛期的目标应该是找到一位像达拉斯的 P.J. 沃盛顿 (P.J. Washington) 这样的球员，他可以提供位置尺寸和足够的投篮能力。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
奥兰多魔术队
球队核心球员保罗·班切罗 (Paolo Banchero) 在球队被淘汰出局后不久就表明了魔术队将会解决什么问题。
“我宁愿成为一名进攻核心，而不是控球后卫，”他对记者说道。这段话加上魔术队在三分球命中率方面排名联盟第 24 位，在三分球命中数方面排名联盟最后一位——表明他们将会在愿望清单中加入一位具有投射能力的新控球后卫。
丹吉洛·拉塞尔可以选择在本赛季结束后跳出与湖人队的合同，对于像魔术队这样拥有一支精英防守球队的球队来说，他将是一个非常合适的球员，他们可以弥补拉塞尔在防守端的不足。—— 克里斯·赫林
费城76人队
拥有顶薪空间，并且又一次早早地被淘汰出局，考虑到托拜亚斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris) 的五年 1.8 亿美元的合同已经到期，预计费城将会展开大动作。
理想的情况——也是 76 人队应该首先尝试的事情——是得到勒布朗·詹姆斯或保罗·乔治，他们两人都可以在合同到期后成为自由球员。如果他们在这些方面失败了，那么像丹佛的考德威尔-波普这样的宝贵的双向侧翼将会是一个非常好的选择。无论外部自由球员市场发生什么，费城显然必须留下受限制自由球员泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)，他本赛季入选了全明星阵容，并且将会在未来几年与 2023 年的 MVP 乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 联手。—— 克里斯·赫林
菲尼克斯太阳队
鉴于其他 29 支球队的总经理中有 26 位愿意与太阳队交换处境，显然太阳队应该保持现状。
不过说真的，太阳队已经完全投入了，他们应该考虑用今年的第 22 位选秀权和 2031 年的首轮签换取一个升级。但太阳队也会从添加一位能够注入活力和运动能力的新秀球员中受益，比如中锋伊夫斯·米西 (Yves Missi) 或凯尔·沃尔 (Kel’el Ware)，他们的角色类似于德雷克·利维二世 (Dereck Lively II) 在独行侠队中的角色。理想情况下，他们会希望通过自由球员市场签下一位控球后卫，希望以最低工资签下凯尔·洛瑞 (Kyle Lowry) 或德隆·赖特 (Delon Wright)。
无论如何，太阳队这个休赛期最大的引援无疑是新任主教练迈克·布登霍尔泽 (Mike Budenholzer)。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
波特兰开拓者队
开拓者队仍然处于重建过程的早期阶段，他们应该利用他们的两个彩票区签位（第 7 位和第 14 位）更多地关注最佳天赋，而不是与一群尚未确立核心地位的年轻球员合作。
波特兰队希望利用一支急需立即升级的球队来换取前锋杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant) 的巨额回报，随着薪资帽预计将每年增长 10%，格兰特的合同看起来更加具有吸引力。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
萨克拉门托国王队
国王队可能是格兰特的潜在目的地，尽管在他们的理想休赛期中，他们只会放弃有限的选秀权——也许是一张受保护的首轮签——以及凯文·赫尔特 (Kevin Huerter)，以便从哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 升级到更年轻的格兰特。
国王队想要拉拢第三支球队来摆脱一些额外的薪资，让国王队有能力重新签下年度最佳第六人奖的亚军马利克·蒙克 (Malik Monk)，他是一位自由球员，而不会进入奢侈税。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
圣安东尼奥马刺队
得到像维克托·文班亚马这样有天赋的新秀球员是最难的部分，但围绕他建队也是一个挑战。马刺队不想在文班亚马准备好以最高水平赢得比赛之前就耗尽资产，但如果重建速度太慢可能会让文班亚马感到沮丧。
理想情况下，马刺队会签下一些为期两年的老将合同，为年轻球员（包括今年的第 4 位和第 8 位选秀权）提供更多结构，同时为 2026 年文班亚马的新秀合同最后一年之前追逐超级巨星腾出薪资空间。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
多伦多猛龙队
即使在赛季期间进行了一系列交易——交易走了帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆、OG·阿努诺比和丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schroder) 等球员，换来了 RJ·巴雷特 (RJ Barrett)、伊曼纽尔·奎克利 (Immanuel Quickley)、凯利·奥林尼克 (Kelly Olynyk) 和奥凯·阿巴吉 (Ochai Agbaji)——猛龙队的这个夏天仍然将会很忙碌。
前年度最佳新秀斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 有资格获得一份顶薪的新秀续约合同，这份合同将价值 2.15 亿美元，为期五年——将成为球队历史上最大的合同。这是一个无需考虑的决定。球队还应该优先考虑奎克利，他是球队的首发控球后卫，并且是一名受限制自由球员，并且应该执行锋线球员布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown) 价值 2300 万美元的球队选项，这将让猛龙队能够在之后将其交易到其他球队。
如果猛龙队这么做，无论他们从自由球员市场还是通过选秀大会签下谁——他们将在下周使用两张首轮签——他们都应该能够在防守篮板方面有所作为。猛龙队在防守篮板率方面排名联盟倒数第二。—— 克里斯·赫林
犹他爵士队
爵士队大约 3000 万美元的薪资空间大部分将用于与劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen) 重新谈判合同，并与他签下一份长期续约合同，他的合同将在本赛季结束后到期。
爵士队拥有足够的选秀权，可以在交易市场上积极运作，理想情况下，他们会瞄准一位年轻的球员，可以与过去两年选中的四位首轮秀以及今年 6 月的两位首轮秀一起成长。如果马刺队最终将凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 交易到一支争冠球队，那么他将成为多支球队交易中的一名值得尝试的低价买入目标。—— 凯文·佩尔顿
华盛顿奇才队
当你经历过奇才队这样的一个赛季时，显然有很多需求。但有两项需求比其他需求更为突出：一名首发级别的控球后卫——现任首发泰厄斯·琼斯 (Tyus Jones) 是一位自由球员——以及一名首发级别的中锋。（在休赛期交易走了克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis)，然后又在交易截止日期前交易走了丹尼尔·加福德 (Daniel Gafford) 之后，奇才队在防守篮板率方面排名联盟垫底，并且与排名垫底的活塞队并列联盟最后一名，在禁区得分方面也排名垫底。）
像普雷西厄斯·阿奇瓦 (Precious Achiuwa) 这样的球员，他在纽约表现出色，将是一个非常合适的选择。奇才队拥有价值 1290 万美元的非纳税者中产特例，可以用来解决这些短板。但最重要的是，球队应该利用他们的第 2 位（以及第 26 位）签位签下一位有天赋的新秀，希望能从长远改变球队的命运，因为球队距离争冠还有很长的路要走。—— 克里斯·赫林
点击查看原文：How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons
How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons
Chris Herring
Kevin Pelton
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Kevin Pelton
ESPN Senior Writer
Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE systemJun 20, 2024, 10:00 AM ET
With the NBA Finals officially in the books after the Boston Celtics vanquished Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, the NBA offseason has arrived for all 30 teams.
The Atlanta Hawks landed the No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA draft (Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN; Thursday’s second round begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN), with the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers each holding two picks in this year’s lottery. Three days later, at 6 p.m. ET, free agency officially begins, with superstars Paul George, LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey, James Harden, OG Anunoby and others set to test the market.
Massive decisions await, and billions of dollars are on the line. Should the Lakers try to land one of the Hawks’ guards? Where should PG go? Which teams should run it back? Here are the optimal offseasons for all 30 NBA teams.
**Jump to a team:**ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Atlanta Hawks
The middling Hawks need to meaningfully commit to a direction. The one they should take: Embrace a youth movement and build around whomever they take with the draft’s No. 1 pick, while moving off of 25-year-old Trae Young, who has served as the face of the franchise since 2018. Atlanta could once again seek to engage the Lakers, who would have to part ways with picks, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and one of Gabe Vincent or Jarred Vanderbilt to make the deal work.
The No. 1 pick in this draft is nothing like Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick in last year’s class. But dealing away Young and handing the reins to Dejounte Murray and the player the Hawks take with the top pick would allow them to take on more of a defensive identity and avoid the challenges that come with building a defense around Young’s shortcomings on that end. – Chris Herring
Boston Celtics
After Boston breezed through the postseason to win the NBA title, it shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that the team run it back. But doing so will cost the Celtics’ front office a ton of money, given that the team has already exceeded the second apron. Jayson Tatum is eligible to sign the most lucrative contract in NBA history, for five years and $315 million. (Jaylen Brown’s supermax deal from last summer, for five years and $304 million, is the current record.)
Team president Brad Stevens also needs to figure out how to extend Derrick White, who is eligible to sign for four years and $126 million, and sharpshooter Sam Hauser. Locking in the franchise’s key players would be a win, though, even if it comes at a heavy financial cost. – Chris Herring
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Brooklyn Nets
Above all else, Brooklyn needs to figure out what it takes and then pay it to retain unrestricted free agent Nic Claxton, who, at 25, is one of the league’s best rim-protecting bigs.
Beyond that, the team needs to be on the lookout for embattled stars throughout the league who might be looking for a way out of their current situations via trade. (The club has seven future first-round picks.)
Mikal Bridges is fantastic – someone any team would want – but this season suggested he isn’t a dominant enough playmaker to be the No. 1 option. Because of that, Brooklyn should seek to extend Bridges at a reasonable, but not max, number. And finding a reasonable extension number for 22-year-old Cam Thomas, who averaged 22.5 points in just his third season, would be a wise step, too, as he grows his all-around game. – Chris Herring
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte has to decide how it wants to handle free agent Miles Bridges, who will be one of the better forwards on the market this summer. The 26-year-old, who missed the entire 2022-23 season after pleading no contest to a felony domestic violence charge, returned this past season and averaged 21.0 points and 7.3 rebounds for the Hornets. Signing and trading him to another team, though, would be the best move.
The Hornets – third worst in the league on offense, second worst in defense, and starting over with a new coach and front office – need help everywhere. They’d be smart to avoid sinking too many resources into Bridges and LaMelo Ball, who has missed 134 games over the past four seasons, and instead build around 2023 No. 2 pick Brandon Miller, while focusing on the best player available at No. 6 this year to continue building toward the future. – Chris Herring
Chicago Bulls
Movement of some sort, any sort, would be great for the Bulls, the only NBA team that hasn’t swung a deal at or around the trade deadline over the past three seasons.
Chicago needs to do something to shake itself from the perennial play-in team purgatory in which it finds itself. Finding a new home, and landing a decent asset or two, for swingman Zach LaVine would be the clearest way to do that.
And bringing back unrestricted free agent DeMar DeRozan might seem like a wrong step to some, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old is still highly productive and is a good enough playmaker to aid the offense. The Bulls should also reach a sensible deal with restricted free agent Patrick Williams, who at 22 has already shown to be a solid defender and good shooter from deep for his size.
Lastly, even if Lonzo Ball is able to return this season after missing 2½ years with his left knee injury, Chicago could still use a veteran point guard – maybe someone such as Chris Paul, if he’s waived by Golden State – to organize the offense. – Chris Herring
Cleveland Cavaliers
The question that hangs over everything else for this franchise is simple: Will Donovan Mitchell sign a four-year, $208 million max extension to stay put for the long haul? If the answer is yes, the direction becomes clearer.
Still, the team has tough choices ahead. Suggestions to break up the talented backcourt, with Mitchell and Darius Garland, and/or the skilled frontcourt, with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, have only grown louder – particularly after Cleveland went on a midseason hot streak, growing more willing and efficient from deep – when Garland and Mobley were both out of the lineup with injuries.
Truth be told, the team should explore deals and potentially make them involving Garland and Allen in an effort to gain more depth and spacing. Once that’s all resolved, an easier decision: The team should lock up 23-year-old Mobley to his max rookie extension. – Chris Herring
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks already did the hard work, putting enough talent around Luka Doncic to get to the NBA Finals with Kyrie Irving as the only key contributor older than 27.
The task this offseason is to shed about $10 million in payroll, freeing Dallas to offer starter Derrick Jones Jr. a deal using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception after he emerged as an ace defender while playing for the veterans minimum. Ideally, the Mavericks will break Tim Hardaway Jr.'s $16.2 million expiring salary into smaller pieces that they can dump while using cash and a limited stock of second-round picks. – Kevin Pelton
Denver Nuggets
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s player option puts the Nuggets in a tough spot. Denver is over the tax line without Caldwell-Pope’s $15.4 million option, meaning the Nuggets would potentially have only the $5.2 million tax midlevel to replace him.
The best scenario for Denver would be to persuade Caldwell-Pope to opt in and extend his contract, pushing his higher salaries to future years when both the cap goes up and Caldwell-Pope gets the payday he desires. If Jamal Murray also signs an extension this summer rather than waiting on a possible All-NBA spot and supermax eligibility, the Nuggets could get their full starting five signed through 2025-26. – Kevin Pelton
Detroit Pistons
It goes without saying that there’s plenty Detroit needs this offseason after a brutal 2023-24 campaign, one that ended with a 14-68 record and the team firing coach Monty Williams with $65M left on his contract.
The Pistons ranked among the league’s bottom five in offense, defense, 3-point percentage, free throw rate allowed, turnover percentage committed and turnover percentage forced.
The first move should be to lock down floor general Cade Cunningham, the franchise’s 2021 pick at No. 1 and centerpiece, with a five-year, $215 million extension. The Pistons should then decline Evan Fournier’s $19 million team option so they can have upward of $60 million to spend in free agency – an amount that should allow them to both meaningfully upgrade the roster’s talent with more win-now veterans and address its numerous holes on either side of the floor. – Chris Herring
Golden State Warriors
After paying an exorbitant luxury tax bill only to miss the playoffs, the Warriors will want to stay out of the new second apron. That would give them a little more than $40 million in first-year salary between re-signing Klay Thompson and using the taxpayer midlevel exception to re-sign or replace Paul.
By bringing back much of last year’s roster, Golden State would be betting on the development of Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski, as well as Draymond Green avoiding the suspensions that marred the 2023-24 season. – Kevin Pelton
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Houston Rockets
The Rockets’ big break came in the lottery, when they jumped up to No. 3 via Brooklyn. That puts Houston in perfect position to draft Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard, a darling of stats-based projections (like mine) who’s an ideal complement to the Rockets’ budding talent as a lights-out shooter.
Houston fans might be dreaming of a big trade that gets the Rockets back to the playoffs, but for now the prudent move is to see how their March surge translates with the No. 3 pick and a healthy Steven Adams and Tari Eason in the mix. – Kevin Pelton
Indiana Pacers
Indiana took an impressive step forward this season by logging the NBA’s second most efficient offense and making an unexpected run to the Eastern Conference finals.
The team looks to have already accomplished its top priority: signing forward Pascal Siakam to a four-year, $189.5M max contract. The Pacers should also bring back restricted free agent Obi Toppin, who averaged 10 points and nearly four boards on 70% shooting from 2 and 40% from 3. – Chris Herring
LA Clippers
The Clippers are hoping the lure of staying in L.A. is enough to persuade Paul George to sign the kind of below-max extension teammate Kawhi Leonard took midseason rather than look elsewhere for a max offer after he declined his player option. Then they want James Harden to re-sign for a deal like the three-year, $90 million offer proposed by ESPN’s Bobby Marks.
That wouldn’t prevent the Clippers from going into the second apron next season. But it would help them move out of it by 2026-27, when their 2032 first-round pick would potentially move to the end of the round. – Kevin Pelton
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Windy breaks down Paul George’s options in the offseason to McAfee
Brian Windhorst breaks down Paul George’s three options in the NBA offseason to Pat McAfee.
Los Angeles Lakers
D’Angelo Russell exercising an $18.7 million player option rather than testing free agency would give the Lakers far more options in the trade market this summer.
As soon as they make the No. 17 pick in this month’s draft, the Lakers can trade that pick along with first-round picks in 2029 and 2031, which should be plenty to land Murray from the Hawks. If Los Angeles can use the 55th pick to draft Bronny James, helping persuade LeBron James to re-sign long term this summer or extend after exercising his player option, all the better. – Kevin Pelton
Memphis Grizzlies
Nothing is more important for the Grizzlies than a return to health after their players missed a league-high 561 games to injury or illness last season – 185 more than the next-highest team.
Memphis must next find help at center after dealing the injured Adams to Houston last season, using either the No. 9 pick or a portion of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception. If UConn’s Donovan Clingan drops on draft night, the Grizzlies should be prepared to move up to add him. – Kevin Pelton
Miami Heat
Fewer teams are in a tougher position than Miami, which faces significant cap challenges and hard questions to answer this offseason.
One summer after losing key rotation players in Max Strus and Vincent, the Heat could lose wings Caleb Martin and Haywood Highsmith as free agents. (ESPN’s Marks projects Miami as a second-apron tax club, which would further restrict the team’s spending options, if Martin opts into the final year of his contract or re-signs with the team.)
Striking a long-term extension with Bam Adebayo, the 26-year-old who’s entering his prime as one of the league’s best, most versatile defenders, is the only no-brainer here. Jimmy Butler is also eligible for an extension and is believed to want a max – something team president Pat Riley said he’s wrestling with. “That’s a big decision on our part to commit those kinds of resources unless you’re somebody who’s going to be there, available, every single night,” Riley said of Butler, who turns 35 this offseason and has missed an average of 20 regular-season games the past five seasons.
If Miami can get Butler to agree to less, it should. Either way, the club looks likely to land where it often does: largely reliant on internal development and improvement, due to its limited cap space. – Chris Herring
Milwaukee Bucks
It would be fair for Milwaukee, after a second straight year of Giannis Antetokounmpo missing playoff games, to think that it simply needs to be healthy to have a shot at winning another title. (The club has actually been shorthanded three postseasons in a row, dating back to the sprained MCL that held Khris Middleton out of the 2022 East semis, as the Bucks were trying to repeat as NBA champs.)
But in analyzing this past season and Milwaukee’s integration of Damian Lillard, one thing was clear: The team’s defense – with Lillard, and without star defender Jrue Holiday – simply wasn’t that championship caliber it had been in years prior. By season’s end, the Bucks ranked just 19th. (They were better, but still below average, at 17th, after the All-Star break under coach Doc Rivers and Pat Beverley on the roster.) Because of that, the team should seek a younger, versatile, point-of-attack defender to help ease the burden defensively for Lillard, whether it’s through the draft or via trade. – Chris Herring
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves first need to figure out who will own the team after prospective buyers Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez initiated mediation to resolve their dispute over assuming majority ownership from Glen Taylor, who announced in March they’d missed deadlines to do so.
Whoever owns the team must be prepared to foot a massive luxury tax bill with extensions for Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns kicking in. Although Minnesota should explore a Towns trade with an eye toward future payroll relief with reserves Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid a year away from unrestricted free agency, the right move is probably keeping the core together – for now. – Kevin Pelton
New Orleans Pelicans
With All-Star forward Brandon Ingram entering the final season of his contract, the time is right for the Pelicans to deal him for a player who better fits alongside Zion Williamson and the rest of their young core.
Ideally, that player would be Cleveland’s Garland, who would offer more long-range shooting and playmaking than Ingram and free a spot in the starting five for Trey Murphy III. New Orleans would be wise to extend Murphy, who otherwise will become a restricted free agent next summer. – Kevin Pelton
New York Knicks
Perhaps more than any other team aside from the NBA champion Celtics, the Knicks should feel good about largely maintaining the status quo. That task will come with a hefty bill, of course, as defensive stud OG Anunoby and center Isaiah Hartenstein, the latter of whom was enormously impressive upon joining the team’s starting lineup, are both free agents who can command top dollar in the marketplace. (Other things that could impact owner Jim Dolan’s wallet in the near future: possible extensions for coach Tom Thibodeau and Jalen Brunson.)
The Knicks can and should deal backup center Mitchell Robinson to free up money to throw Hartenstein’s way, and should cut bait with backup Bojan Bogdanovic, whose $19 million contract is only partially guaranteed this coming season. New York can potentially find a better-fitting reserve for his spot.
The team has picks it can deal for a bonafide star to play alongside Brunson, but this group deserves an opportunity to play at full strength first before pulling that lever. – Chris Herring
Oklahoma City Thunder
The bold move is the Thunder making a run to bring George back to Oklahoma City in free agency. This would likely require trading Ousmane Dieng, Kenrich Williams. this year’s No. 12 pick and additional salary to create the necessary cap space.
The Thunder have enough depth on the roster to make it work, and signing George would surely make them the favorites to win the West. More realistically, Oklahoma City’s goal this offseason should be to find a player like Dallas’ P.J. Washington, who can offer positional size and adequate shooting. – Kevin Pelton
Orlando Magic
Paolo Banchero, the team’s franchise player, spelled out what Orlando figures to address shortly after the team got knocked out of the playoffs.
“I would rather be more of an offensive hub than the point guard,” he told reporters. That comment, coupled with the Magic finishing 24th in three-point percentage and 30th – or dead last – in 3-point makes suggests that a new ball handler with range will be on the team’s wishlist.
D’Angelo Russell, who can opt out of his deal with the Lakers this summer, would make a lot of sense for an elite defensive team like the Magic, who could cover for Russell’s shortcomings on that end. – Chris Herring
Philadelphia 76ers
With max cap space and yet another early elimination, expect Philadelphia to go big-game hunting now that Tobias Harris’ five-year, $180 million contract has expired.
The dream scenario – and the first thing the Sixers should be trying to do – is to land someone like LeBron James or Paul George, both of whom can opt out of their deals to become free agents. If they fail on those fronts, a valuable two-way wing like Denver’s Caldwell-Pope would make a lot of sense. Regardless of what happens with external free agents, Philly obviously has to bring back restricted free agent Tyrese Maxey, who made his first All-Star team this season and figures to be partnered with 2023 MVP Joel Embiid for years to come. – Chris Herring
Phoenix Suns
Given 26 of the other 29 GMs would trade their situation with the Suns, clearly Phoenix should stay the course.
In all seriousness, though, the Suns are so all-in already that they should consider dealing this year’s No. 22 pick and their 2031 first-rounder for an upgrade. But Phoenix would also benefit from adding a rookie capable of injecting youth and athleticism, like centers Yves Missi or Kel’el Ware in a role similar to Dereck Lively II’s with the Mavericks. Ideally, they’d look to address a point guard via free agency, hoping to land Kyle Lowry or Delon Wright for the minimum.
Either way, the Suns’ biggest offseason addition will surely be new head coach Mike Budenholzer. – Kevin Pelton
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are still early enough in their rebuilding process that their pair of lottery picks (Nos. 7 and 14) should be used more with an eye toward the best possible talent than fitting alongside a group of young prospects that has yet to establish itself as cornerstones.
Portland will ideally take advantage of a team desperate for an immediate upgrade to command a massive return for forward Jerami Grant, whose contract looks far more palatable with the salary cap set to jump 10% annually going forward. – Kevin Pelton
Sacramento Kings
The Kings would be a possible landing spot for Grant, though in their ideal offseason they’d give up limited pick value – perhaps a protected first-rounder – along with Kevin Huerter to upgrade from Harrison Barnes to the younger Grant.
Sacramento would want to rope in a third team to shed some additional salary, giving the Kings the ability to re-sign Sixth Man of the Year Award runner-up Malik Monk as an unrestricted free agent without pushing into the luxury tax. – Kevin Pelton
San Antonio Spurs
Getting a prospect as talented as Victor Wembanyama is the hardest part, but building around him is a challenge too. The Spurs don’t want to burn through assets before Wembanyama is ready to win at the highest level, but building too slowly might frustrate him.
Ideally, San Antonio adds veterans on two-year contracts, giving more structure to develop their young players (including this year’s Nos. 4 and 8 picks) while maintaining cap space for a run at a star player in 2026 ahead of the last year of Wembanyama’s rookie contract. – Kevin Pelton
Toronto Raptors
Even after making a flurry of deals during the season – dealing away Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Dennis Schroder, among others, for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Kelly Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji – it still figures to be a busy summer for Toronto.
Scottie Barnes, the former Rookie of the Year, is eligible for a rookie max extension, which – at five years for $215 million – would go down as the biggest contract in franchise history. That’s a no-brainer. The team should also prioritize Quickley, its starting point guard who is a restricted free agent, and pick up wing Bruce Brown’s team option for $23 million, which would give Toronto the ability to deal him elsewhere later on.
If the Raptors do that, whoever else they acquire – either in free agency or with one of their two first-round picks next week – should have the ability to hit the defensive glass. The Raptors finished second worst in the league in defensive-rebound percentage. – Chris Herring
Utah Jazz
Much of the Jazz’s approximately $30 million in cap space will be earmarked for renegotiating Lauri Markkanen’s contract in conjunction with a long-term extension entering its final season.
Utah has more than enough incoming draft picks to also be active in the trade market, ideally targeting a player young enough to grow with four first-round picks from the past two drafts, plus two more this June. If San Antonio ends up dealing Keldon Johnson in a win-now move, he’d be a strong buy-low candidate as part of a multiteam deal. – Kevin Pelton
Washington Wizards
When you’re coming off a season like the one Washington is, there are, obviously, a lot of needs. But there are two that are more glaring than the others: a starting-caliber point guard – current starter Tyus Jones is an unrestricted free agent – and a starting-caliber center. (After dealing away Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason, and then Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline, the Wizards ranked last in the NBA in defensive-rebound percentage and tied for last with the lowly Pistons in paint points allowed.)
Someone like Precious Achiuwa, who filled in admirably in New York, would make a lot of sense. Washington has the $12.9 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception available to address its shortcomings. But above all else, the organization should seek to score big with its No. 2 (and No. 26) overall pick, in hopes of turning their fortunes around long term, as the team is still a ways off from contention. – Chris Herring
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