By Mike Finger, Columnist | San Antonio Express-News, 2024-06-01 16:12:09
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
波士顿，马萨诸塞州 - 1月17日：圣安东尼奥马刺队的维克多·文班亚马（1号）在2024年1月17日波士顿马萨诸塞州的TD花园球馆对阵波士顿凯尔特人队的杰森·塔图姆（0号）时封盖了对手的投篮。
文班亚马的到来感觉来得太早了，但没有人有心情去想这些。当一位记者向两位意气风发的年轻球星指出，NBA球员几乎总是在大舞台上经历失败后才会取得成功时，他们都感到不爽。
然后他们笑了。
“（哎呀），”明尼苏达森林狼队的卡尔-安东尼·唐斯在淘汰卫冕冠军后，和森林狼队的队友安东尼·爱德华兹并肩笑着说。“我们还要输多少次？”
在5月19日那场喜悦的新闻发布会后的两周里，唐斯和爱德华兹得到了答案，而这个答案对本世纪以来试图赢得NBA总冠军的几乎每个人来说都耳熟能详。
一支由超级巨星领衔的球队需要输多少次才能庆祝胜利？
几乎无一例外，比你想象的要多。
季后赛的学费每个人都得交，没有人可以跳过。问问杰森·塔图姆或卢卡·东契奇，他们都会点头。
圣安东尼奥马刺队的中锋维克多·文班亚马（1号）在2月14日星期三达拉斯的一场NBA篮球比赛中，在达拉斯独行侠队的中锋丹尼尔·加福德面前得分，而独行侠队的后卫卢卡·东契奇（左下）在一旁观看。 （美联社照片/LM奥特罗）
他们将在周四开始的NBA总决赛中相遇，到月底，他们中的一位将成为冠军。当这种情况发生时，对于至少一位曾经看起来走入死胡同的球星来说，这将是他们的一种证明。
这也将强化那些现在计划未来五六年计划的球队们的理念。
是的，在2024年向球迷们兜售一个在2029年夺冠的计划很难。没有人想等那么久，尤其是在被一个已经让各种老式篮球逻辑过时了的不可思议的20岁球员迷住了的情况下。文班亚马的球队不应该尽一切努力尽快打开他们的总冠军窗口吗？
好吧，实际上，有一个非常有说服力的论据反对这一点，它得到了我们关于现代NBA冠军是如何赢得的所有数据的支持。如果达拉斯独行侠在本月赢得冠军，他们最好的球员将在他的第六个赛季首次成为冠军。如果波士顿凯尔特人队赢得冠军，他们最好的球员将在他的第七个赛季首次成为冠军。
而且，事情是这样的：在本世纪，这实际上算得上是“早”了。
追溯到2000年，NBA总决赛最有价值球员的平均经验是9.5个赛季，而且这并没有受到勒布朗·詹姆斯在他第17年赢得冠军的影响。
自本世纪初以来，唯一在第六个赛季之前赢得该奖项的球员是卡怀·莱昂纳德（2014年在马刺队效力第三个赛季时）和德维恩·韦德（2006年在热火队效力第三个赛季时）。这两个年轻球员都是与已经赢得过多个戒指的篮球名人堂大个子并肩作战。
丹佛掘金队的尼古拉·约基奇花了9年时间。密尔沃基雄鹿队的字母哥花了8年时间。凯文·杜兰特和詹姆斯都花了10年时间。
报名参加：免费与迈克·芬格、杰夫·麦克唐纳和汤姆·奥斯本一起讨论马刺队的选秀计划
这一点的推论是，季后赛的失望——通常是很多失望——已经成为季后赛成功的先决条件。这是两周前那位明尼苏达的记者试图说明的观点，当时看起来森林狼队可能会打破历史上的长期趋势。
如果他们在爱德华兹的第三个赛季中，在没有在第二轮或更晚阶段输球的经验的情况下，以击败独行侠和凯尔特人队的方式击败了掘金队，他们将成为联盟在三四十年前从未见过的最大“异常值”。
别把这局限于总决赛最有价值球员。自2000年以来，没有人能成为一支冠军球队中第二好的球员，而没有在联盟半决赛或更晚阶段至少输过一次。
他们中的大多数人在突破之前至少经历过三到四次心碎和灵魂被摧毁。
像詹姆斯、杜兰特和德克·诺维茨基这样的人一次又一次地经历了这种事情。即使是像韦德这样学习速度相对较快的球员（他在2005年的东部决赛中输给了活塞队）在没有经历过一些高调的失败之前也无法达到巅峰。
那么，这对像马刺这样的球队意味着什么呢？他们应该接受文班亚马直到2029年或2030年才会举起冠军奖杯，并且在那之前不要担心做出重大调整吗？
当然不是。下个赛季以及之后一个赛季的进步应该是重中之重，因为获得季后赛失望的先决条件的唯一途径是在第一位进入季后赛。
但是，视角是关键。无论马刺做出什么短期内能让他们变得更好的举动，他们都不能做任何损害他们在这个十年末达到巅峰的能力的事情。这就是历史告诉我们他们的真正机会将到来的时刻。
如果这使得一些球迷想知道，“我们还要输多少次？”
他们最终会发现答案的。
即使是球星们也是如此。
达拉斯的卢卡·东契奇（左）在2023年10月25日星期三在弗罗斯特银行中心举行的赛季揭幕战中，看着马刺队的维克多·文班亚马灌篮。达拉斯以126-119击败了马刺队。
盐湖城，犹他州 - 3月27日：圣安东尼奥马刺队的塞迪·奥斯曼（16号）在2024年3月27日盐湖城犹他州的三角洲中心举行的比赛中，在犹他爵士队的卢卡·萨马尼奇（19号）面前投篮。
达拉斯独行侠队的后卫卢卡·东契奇（77号）和圣安东尼奥马刺队的中锋维克多·文班亚马（1号）在2024年3月19日星期二圣安东尼奥的一场NBA篮球比赛中争夺篮板球。（美联社照片/埃里克·盖）
明尼阿波利斯，明尼苏达州 - 12月6日：明尼苏达森林狼队的卡尔-安东尼·唐斯（32号）在2023年12月6日明尼阿波利斯明尼苏达州的目标中心球馆的比赛中，防守圣安东尼奥马刺队的维克多·文班亚马（1号）。
明尼苏达森林狼队的中锋卡尔-安东尼·唐斯（32号）试图突破圣安东尼奥马刺队的前锋杰里米·索汉在2024年1月27日星期六弗罗斯特银行中心的NBA比赛中。圣安东尼奥以113-112战胜了明尼苏达队。
点击查看原文：Why should Spurs think long-term? Because no NBA star skips his dues.
Why should Spurs think long-term? Because no NBA star skips his dues.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JANUARY 17: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs blocks a shot from Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on January 17, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts.
The arrival felt way ahead of schedule, but nobody was in the mood to think about that. When a reporter pointed out to two triumphant young stars that NBA players almost always have to endure failure on a big stage before prevailing on one, they bristled.
Then they laughed.
“(Gosh darn),” Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns said, giggling next to Timberwolves teammate Anthony Edwards after eliminating the defending champions. “How much more we gotta lose?”
In the two weeks following that happy May 19 press conference, Towns and Edwards got their answer, and it was a familiar one to just about everyone who’s tried to win an NBA championship this century.
How many times does a team led by superstars have to lose before it can celebrate?
Almost without exception, more than you’d think.
The playoff dues come for everyone, and nobody gets to skip them. Ask either Jayson Tatum or Luka Doncic about this, and they’ll nod their heads.
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) scores against Dallas Mavericks center Daniel Gafford as guard Luka Doncic, lower left, watches during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Dallas, Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/LM Otero)
They’ll meet in the NBA Finals starting Thursday, and by the end of the month one of them will be a champion. When it happens, it’ll be vindication for at least one star who once looked like he’d hit a dead end.
And it’ll reinforce the rationale of franchises now planning five and six years ahead.
Yes, it’s hard to sell a fan base in 2024 on a plan to win it all in 2029. Nobody wants to wait that long, especially while being mesmerized by an otherworldly 20-year-old already making all sorts of old-school basketball logic look obsolete. Shouldn’t Victor Wembanyama’s team do everything in its power to open its championship window as soon as possible?
Well, actually, there’s a pretty convincing argument against that, and it’s supported by basically every piece of data we have about how modern NBA titles are won. If the Dallas Mavericks win it all this month, their best player will become a champion for the first time in his sixth season. If it’s the Boston Celtics, their best player will do it for the first time in his seventh.
And here’s the thing: In this millennium, that actually counts as early.
Going back all the way to the year 2000, the average experience for an NBA Finals MVP is 9.5 seasons, and this is not skewed by LeBron James winning one in year 17.
Since the turn of the century, the only players to win that award before year six are Kawhi Leonard (with the Spurs in his third season in 2014) and Dwyane Wade (with the Heat in his third season in 2006). And both of those youngsters did it alongside Hall of Fame big men who’d already won multiple rings.
Denver’s Nikola Jokic needed nine years. Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo needed eight. Kevin Durant and James both needed 10.
The corollary to this is that postseason disappointment – and usually lots of it – has become a prerequisite for postseason success. This was the point the reporter in Minnesota was trying to make two weeks ago, when it appeared as though the Timberwolves might buck a long historical trend.
If they’d followed their toppling of the Nuggets by beating the Mavericks and Celtics, in Edwards’ third season, without any experience losing in the second round or later? They would have been the biggest outlier the league had seen three or four decades.
Forget limiting this to Finals MVPs. Nobody since 2000 has been even the second-best player on a championship team without at least one loss in the conference semifinals or later under his belt.
Most of them had their hearts broken and their souls crushed at least three or four times before breaking through.
Guys like James, Durant and Dirk Nowitzki had it happen over and over and over again. Not even the relatively quick studies like Wade (a loser to the Pistons in the 2005 Eastern Conference finals) reached the top without some high-profile failure.
So what does this all mean to a team like the Spurs? Should they just accept that Wembanyama won’t hoist a trophy until 2029 or 2030, and not worry about making major moves until then?
Of course not. Improvement next season, and in the one after that, should be a huge priority, because the only way to acquire that prerequisite playoff disappointment is by getting into the playoffs in the first place.
But perspective is key here. In whatever moves the Spurs make to get better in the short term, they can’t do anything that would undermine their ability to peak at the end of this decade. That’s when history tells us their real opportunity will come.
And if that makes some fans wonder, “How much more we gotta lose?”
They’ll find out eventually.
Even the stars do.
Dallas’ Luka Doncic, left, watches Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama dunk a ball during their season opener at the Frost Bank Center on Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. Dallas beat the Spurs 126-119.
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH - MARCH 27: Cedi Osman #16 of the San Antonio Spurs shoots over Luka Samanic #19 of the Utah Jazz during the first half of a game at Delta Center on March 27, 2024 in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) and San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) reach for a rebound during the second half of an NBA basketball game in San Antonio, Tuesday, March 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - DECEMBER 6: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves guards Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs in the second quarter of the game at Target Center on December 6, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) tries to drive past San Antonio Spurs forward Jeremy Sochan during the second half of their NBA game at the Frost Bank Center on Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024. San Antonio held on to beat Minnesota 113-112.
By Mike Finger, Columnist, via San Antonio Express-News
