Buck Harvey’s Mailbag: Stats do lie about the Spurs
Web Posted: 02/28/2007 09:33 PM CST
Buck Harvey
Express-News Staff Writer
[u]Do you have any clue about what you are talking about?[/u] [b]John Hollinger never says his statistical “predictions” are anything other than well, predictions. He admits there are intangibles within someone’s game, such as (Bruce) Bowen’s that the PER (player efficiency rating) doesn’t account for. But that’s why the PER is only an indicator and a strong one at that. If it wasn’t, why would the four best players/leaders in this league have the top four PER rankings (Wade, Dirk, Timmy, KG)?
His whole power rankings is ingenious because it is based off the team’s recent play. This makes sense because it is updated daily, and teams that went 12-4 in November such as Orlando but have played under .500 ball since obviously don’t deserve to be in the top 5 with the Spurs, Suns and Mavs.
And I must say this six-game stretch is obviously the best of the Spurs’ season, and we here in San Antonio should rejoice that someone knowledgeable has our backs. Hollinger gave me hope yesterday amidst a very dismal season, and you know that with the passion, intensity and focus the Spurs have been playing with the last six games, if the playoffs started right now I could honestly tell you I could expect them to win. And that is the first time all season I can say that.
The Spurs finally look like themselves, and the big three are playing the best I’ve seen them play. How come that can’t translate into statistics? You tell me. [/b]
– Micah Galindo
Numbers can tell you what you want them to tell you. And if yours are telling you the Spurs, not the Mavericks, are the best in the Western Conference right now, then you need some new numbers.
[b]I think you’re missing the big picture here. Okay, Hollinger’s system leaves much to be desired, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
The fact is that coaches around the league chose the Spurs to win the championship this year! Hollinger had nothing to do with the coaches choosing the Spurs over the Mavs, the Heat, the Suns, etc. I would also refer you to the past several years as a barometer of sorts. Last year Duncan was hurt and we still almost beat the Mavs. Prior to that, the Spurs had already won three championships. The history of the Mavs gives little confidence that they are able to win it all.
Even if Hollinger used no such system, he would still be just as right about picking the Spurs as the No. 1 team in the NBA just based on their recent championship wins and with their lack of concern in the regular season and focus in the playoffs. So many writers bow to the glitz of pretty regular-season win streaks. Just like last year when the Pistons were the talk of the NBA during the regular season. We saw how far that got the Pistons!
Hollinger actually makes more sense than most of you writers, but it’s not because of his system. It’s because of the big picture. One big picture is worth a thousand rings! [/b]
– Amber, San Antonio
The general managers, not the coaches, were the ones who predicted in the fall that the Spurs would win the title. If polled again, they just might switch their vote to a team that could win 70 games.
[b]Good observation on the statistical “charlatans” out there. I really can’t believe that after six Bull, two Rocket, three Laker and three Spur titles that the people who cover the game are still trying to sell us the same garbage. Every time an offensive juggernaut comes along (Phoenix), they hail them as some sort of basketball salvation. While the teams with true balance and defensive grit (Spurs) win the championships.
Here’s a prediction: Phoenix beats the Spurs in the second round because David Stern believes this false gospel. What’s your take on the inevitable Spur-Sun collision? Has Amare really overtaken Duncan? Or have the Spurs been pacing themselves because of Manu and Tony’s off-season demands?
My take is that because of their style of play, Phoenix is vulnerable at home to any team they play in the playoffs, which means they have to have homecourt (they will have to beat No. 1 seed Dallas twice on their homecourt in a possible conference final matchup).[/b]
– Danny Collins, Chantilly, Va.
The Suns might lose a game or two at home, but they also have the best road record in the league.
As for Stern wanting the Suns to win: If that were true, the Spurs wouldn’t have gotten past them in 2005.
Funny numbers. I think the Spurs can give Dallas a run and probably fall a bit short again (kills me to say this). But I think the Spurs spank the Suns surprisingly easily in the second round. Your thoughts?
– Kevin, Dallas
Spank is strong. Nudge is possible. What to watch for over the next two months: Steve Nash’s back.
[b]As always, the Spurs live and die by defense. Not coincidentally, the Spurs are on a win streak as their defense has clamped down allowing only 82 points a game during that stretch.
With this aged roster I don’t believe the Spurs can sustain it for four, seven-game series come May and June. According to other web sites Rashard Lewis will opt out of his contract and become a free agent. Do you believe he would fit into Pop’s defensive philosophy?[/b]
– Joseph Rodriguez, San Antonio
If Popovich can get Brent Barry and Michael Finley to play defense, he could Lewis. But it’s always about value in this league, and Lewis’ price would be far too high for this roster and for what he would bring.
How long do we have to wait to have a Spurs game in Argentina? I can tell you we are dying to have them here.
– Maurinho, Buenos Aires
I’d be the first in line to volunteer for the assignment.
And if the Spurs somehow sign Luis Scola and Andres Nocioni in the offseason? Then they might want to schedule a playoff series there.
Do you think that the Spurs may sign veteran Scottie Pippen?
– Gian, Manila
No. He’s not a good fit. If I’m looking for a retired player who could give me a couple of minutes, I’d prefer David Robinson over Pippen. But that’s not happening, either.
[u]I agree with Bobby Knight’s take on the present and developing state of affairs in college sports. [/u] [b]It just takes a strong individual/coach like Knight to stand up and speak about it.
I, for one, have lost much of my interest in college sports because of the problems created in our education system so that the best “athletes” are kept eligible so they can “play on.” Our current high-school graduation system (three tiered) has much to do with that.
At Texas, Vince Young is a prime example: A great athlete, a very poor student, and has gone on to a great pro freshman start. Did this help college football? No.[/b]
– Gene Watson
Knight’s commitment to academics is unquestioned. But the one-and-done situation created by the NBA not only doesn’t deserve his “worst thing ever” line, it’s also been going on for years. Besides, what’s so awful about forcing a kid to go to school for at least a year? He might find he likes it.
As for Young, I’m not sure it was reported he was either a good or a poor student. But most reports suggest he helped college football.