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[ESPN]2024 年 NBA 选秀彩票:每支球队的几率和潜在选择

由Gemini Pro人工智能翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。



乔纳森·吉沃尼

杰里米·乌

2024 年 5 月 8 日,上午 8:00 东部时间

周日(美国东部时间下午 3 点,ABC) 2024 年 NBA 选秀彩票中,每支球队都有什么利害关系?

尽管选秀球员缺乏顶级的明星力量,但彩票中的每支球队仍然很想获得第一顺位。

NBA 选秀专家乔纳森·吉沃尼和杰里米·乌分析了可能的选秀、几率和对潜在新秀的最佳匹配,包括扎卡里·里萨切尔、亚历克斯·萨尔、多诺万·克林安和里德·谢泼德。

跳到一支球队:

ATL | CHA | CHI | DET | GSW | HOU
MEM | POR | SAC | SAS | TOR | UTA | WAS




1. 底特律活塞队 | 平均选秀:3.7

第一顺位几率:14% | 前三顺位几率:40.1%

如果他们进入前四名,他们应该选择...

1. 扎卡里·里萨切尔

2. 里德·谢泼德

3. 亚历克斯·萨尔

4. 马塔斯·布泽利斯
如果他们保持在第一顺位,最有可能的选择:扎卡里·里萨切尔 | 小前锋

活塞队在决定使用他们的选秀权选择哪名球员之前,需要回答几个内部问题,而这将很大程度上取决于他们在彩票之夜的排名。最紧迫的问题是谁将做出选择,因为底特律正在寻找一位篮球运营总裁来监督办公室。该聘用将在这里拥有最终决定权,并决定其他一些关键事项,例如尝试破译领先得分手凯德·坎宁安和杰登·艾维的长期后场配合,以及确定一起首发大个子球员以赛亚·斯图尔特和贾伦·杜伦的可行性。

在以各种投篮类别垫底 NBA 之后,用侧翼投篮包围他们在年轻的核心周围,肯定会成为优先事项。活塞队可能希望采取更长远的视角,选择有最大机会成为明星的球员,无论阵容如何,但这在这个选秀级别中并不容易。考虑到本赛季打出 14 胜 68 负的战绩后,蚕食掉现有的人才可能让人感觉像是一个危险的主张。

里萨切尔的身材、外线投篮、双向多功能性和角色扮演潜力可能会让他成为一个有吸引力的选择,在得分后卫和延伸4号位位置之间滑动。他在控球和融为一体的意愿方面的弱点可能不是问题,因为坎宁安和艾维已经在阵容中承担了重要的角色。

谢泼德是该级别的最佳射手,他有可能与坎宁安或艾维一起在交错阵容中作战,这可能是另一个有趣的选择。——乔纳森·吉沃尼
__________



2. 华盛顿奇才队 | 平均选秀:3.9

第一顺位几率:14% | 前三顺位几率:40.1%

如果他们进入前四名,他们应该选择...

1. 亚历克斯·萨尔

2. 扎卡里·里萨切尔

3. 多诺万·克林安

4. 罗伯·迪林厄姆
如果他们留在第 2 顺位,最有可能的选择:亚历克斯·萨尔 | 大前锋

尽管在这个选秀中没有明确的顶级新秀,但奇才队在继续重建的过程中有耐心建立阵容的带宽。他们在球队总裁迈克尔·温格的领导下,进行着艰苦的持久战,目前拥有时间优势。如果他们的选择接近榜首,华盛顿完全有可能延续去年选择比拉勒·库里巴利的做法,再次对法国新秀进行长期投资,萨尔和里萨切尔都是可行的选择。

萨尔的篮筐保护潜力以及成长为游走移动的锋线存在的空间,应该会吸引奇才队,奇才队在上个赛季经历了临时的替补大个子(马文·巴格利三世和里肖恩·霍姆斯),以获取选秀权。虽然阵容显然需要创造投篮,但如果他们在第 1 顺位,尝试用萨尔增加体型和防守骨干可能是一个更为明智的打法。他并非没有风险,但他在选秀中拥有和其他人一样高的潜力,奇才队在未来几年很可能在彩票的榜首进行更多次的尝试。

虽然里萨切尔的技能组可能与阵容中的德尼·阿夫迪亚和库里巴利重复,但对于奇才队来说,现在考虑配合而不是收集人才还为时过早。假设里萨切尔继续作为空间拉开者和得分者在多个位置取得进步的话,里萨切尔有可能融入阵容。如果阵容建设愿景与总经理威尔·道金斯此前在雷霆队的工作相一致的话,那么增加另一名多功能外线球员是有道理的。

类似于萨尔的论点也可以适用于克林安,因为克林安为这张牌带来了很好的防守优势,让奇才们有更多真正的中锋可以围绕他们构建阵容。他的身体素质和他全方面的成长空间将使克林安成为奇才队防守的一个不错的基石。

如果奇才队愿意冒险相信迪林厄姆的脱颖而出能力并尝试将他培养成一名领先的组织者,那么迪林厄姆将成为一个有趣的百搭人物。考虑到他们组建这支球队的跑道,我可以看到奇才队不像以前那么关注风险,对这次选择采取高优势的方法,并希望迪林厄姆能够承担主角角色。——杰里米·乌
__________



3. 夏洛特黄蜂队 | 平均选秀:4.1

第一顺位几率:13.3% | 前三顺位几率:38.6%

如果他们进入前四名,他们应该选择...

1. 亚历克斯·萨尔

2. 多诺万·克林安

3. 扎卡里·里萨切尔

4. 罗伯·迪林厄姆
如果他们留在第 3 顺位,最有可能的选择:多诺万·克林安 | 中锋

随着篮球运营执行副总裁杰夫·彼得森在管理层和即将上任的主教练,黄蜂队在考虑到阵容构成以及组织重组和新所有权带来的较长时间表的情况下,可以灵活地采取多种方向。

前场是加强阵容和围绕去年 2 号新秀布兰登·米勒进行构建的自然区域,他在新秀年度获得季军后,未来看起来非常光明。萨尔和克林安都可以提出有力论据,认为他们将成为第一个在榜单上脱颖而出的球员,而防守影响力是讨论的重点。每支 NBA 球队都可以使用像里萨切尔这样的多才多艺、聪明、投篮流畅的侧翼球员,他们还可以防守多个位置。如果黄蜂队想在明星力量和得分能力上取得突破,那么迪林厄姆的控球技巧和充满活力的投篮能力可能会成为有趣的组合,即使是在与拉梅洛·鲍尔同场的后场也是如此。

在这种情况下,萨尔已经不再在场,选择克林安是有道理的。——吉沃尼
__________



4. 波特兰开拓者队 | 平均选秀:4.4

第一顺位几率:12.5% | 前三顺位几率:36.6%

如果他们进入前四名,他们应该选择...

1. 扎卡里·里萨切尔

2. 亚历克斯·萨尔

3. 多诺万·克林安

4. 里德·谢泼德
如果他们留在第 4 顺位,最有可能的选择:里德·谢泼德 | 后卫

开拓者队仍然处于一个有趣的过渡阶段:他们在安芬尼·西蒙斯、斯科特·亨德森和沙伊登·沙普的带领下,积累了大量年轻的后卫,但他们的重建还不够完善,不足以对配合过度关注。推断开拓者将会寻找侧翼或前场上的帮助是有道理的——最好是那些不需要大量触球就可以产生影响

原文如下:

2024 NBA draft lottery: Odds for every team and potential picks

[Image] Jonathan Givony

Jeremy Woo

May 8, 2024, 08:00 AM ET

What's at stake for every team in the 2024 NBA draft lottery (3 p.m. ET, ABC) on Sunday?

Even though the draft class lacks star power at the top, each team in the lottery would still love to secure the No. 1 pick.

NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo break down the likely picks, odds and best fits for prospects, including Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, Donovan Clingan and Reed Sheppard.

Jump to a team:

ATL | CHA | CHI | DET | GSW | HOU
MEM | POR | SAC | SAS | TOR | UTA | WAS



1. Detroit Pistons | Average pick: 3.7

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three pick odds: 40.1%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Reed Sheppard

3. Alex Sarr

4. Matas Buzelis
Most likely pick if they stay at No. 1: Zaccharie Risacher | SF

The Pistons have several internal questions they'll need to answer before deciding which player they might select with their draft pick, something that will depend heavily on where they land on lottery night. The most pressing is who will be making the pick, as Detroit is searching for a new president of basketball operations to oversee the front office. That hire will have the final say here as well as deciding several other critical matters, such as attempting to decipher the long-term backcourt fit of leading scorers Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey and determining the viability of starting big men Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren together.

Surrounding their young core with shooting on the wing, after finishing last in the NBA in a variety of shooting categories, will surely be a priority. The Pistons might want to take a longer view and select the player with the best chances of emerging as a star regardless of roster fit, but that's not easy in this draft class. Cannibalizing the existing talent already in place might feel like a dicey proposition after finishing 14-68 this season.

Risacher's size, perimeter shooting, two-way versatility and role-playing potential could make him an attractive fit, sliding between the shooting guard and stretch-4 positions. His weaknesses as a ball handler and regarding a willingness to blend in might not be an issue on a roster with Cunningham and Ivey already shouldering significant usage.

Sheppard, the best shooter in the class, could be another interesting option with his potential to operate alongside either Cunningham or Ivey in staggered lineups. -- Jonathan Givony
__________

2. Washington Wizards | Average pick: 3.9

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three pick odds: 40.1%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Alex Sarr

2. Zaccharie Risacher

3. Donovan Clingan

4. Rob Dillingham
Most likely pick if they stay at 2: Alex Sarr | PF

Although there's not a clear-cut top prospect in this draft, the Wizards have the bandwidth to build their roster patiently as they continue their rebuild. They are in it for the long haul under team president Michael Winger and currently have the advantage of time. If their pick holds toward the very top, it's certainly possible Washington might follow up last year's selection of Bilal Coulibaly with another long-term investment in a French prospect, with Sarr and Risacher both viable options.

Sarr's rim protection potential and room to grow into a mobile two-way frontcourt presence should be attractive to Washington, which cycled through stopgap bigs last season (Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes) in the interest of acquiring draft capital. While there's an obvious need for shot creation on the roster, attempting to add size and defensive backbone with Sarr might be the more prudent play if they sit at No. 1. He's not without risk, but his upside is as high as anyone's in the draft, and the Wizards will likely have more swings at the top of the lottery in the coming years.

While Risacher's skill set might be duplicative with Deni Avdija and Coulibaly on the roster, it's a little early for Washington to overthink fit versus collecting talent. Risacher could feasibly fit in, assuming his continued progress as a floor spacer and scorer at multiple positions. If the roster-building vision falls in line with the project general manager Will Dawkins previously worked on while with the Thunder, adding another versatile perimeter player makes sense.

A similar argument to Sarr's can be made for Clingan as a fit, as Clingan brings a good deal of defensive upside to the table, giving the Wizards more of a true center to build around. His physical presence and room for all-around growth would make Clingan a nice building block for Washington's defense.

Dillingham would be an interesting wild-card fit if the Wizards are willing to take a big chance on his ability to create off the bounce and try to develop him into a lead playmaker. Considering the runway they have to assemble this team, I could see the Wizards concerning themselves less with the risk, taking a high-upside approach to this selection and hoping Dillingham can take on a starring role. -- Jeremy Woo
__________

3. Charlotte Hornets | Average pick: 4.1

No. 1 pick odds: 13.3% | Top-three pick odds: 38.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Alex Sarr

2. Donovan Clingan

3. Zaccharie Risacher

4. Rob Dillingham
Most likely pick if they stay at 3: Donovan Clingan | C

With executive vice president of basketball operations Jeff Peterson in the front office and a head coach coming soon, the Hornets have the flexibility to take multiple directions, considering the roster's makeup and the longer timetable that comes with an organizational refresh and new ownership.

The frontcourt is a natural place to look to strengthen the roster and build around last year's No. 2 pick Brandon Miller, whose future looks extremely bright after finishing third in the Rookie of the Year race. Sarr and Clingan can each make a compelling argument for being the first big man to come off the board, with defensive impact at the forefront of the discussion. Every NBA team could use a versatile, intelligent, smooth-shooting wing such as Risacher, who also can defend multiple positions. If the Hornets want to take a swing on star power and scoring punch, Dillingham's ballhandling wizardry and dynamic shot-making prowess could be an interesting fit, even in the same backcourt as LaMelo Ball.

In this scenario, with Sarr already off the board, drafting Clingan makes sense. -- Givony
__________

4. Portland Trail Blazers | Average pick: 4.4

No. 1 pick odds: 12.5% | Top-three pick odds: 36.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Donovan Clingan

4. Reed Sheppard
Most likely pick if they stay at 4: Reed Sheppard | G

The Trail Blazers remain in an interesting transitional spot: They have loaded up on young guards, with Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, but also aren't far enough along in their rebuild to be overconcerned with fit. It makes sense to infer the Blazers will look for help on the wing or in the frontcourt -- preferably players who don't need heavy touches to make an impact -- but they also have a strong need for perimeter shooting that could take precedence over positional balance.

The Blazers could use a bigger wing scorer to help balance the floor and add size to their lineups, with Risacher looking like a natural fit. His shortcomings as a creator might be mitigated by the guards already in place, and his upside as a perimeter spacer and defender could make him quite valuable.

If Risacher is off the board, the decision might be a little cloudier, but the Blazers aren't far enough in rebuilding to be overly committed to any vets on the roster. They could look to add another big in Sarr or Clingan as a long-term investment behind Deandre Ayton.

If Portland wants shooting, Sheppard stands out among the available perimeter options. While not a perfect fit due to his lack of size, Sheppard's ability to play on and off the ball and make the game easier for teammates should allow him to play in multiple-guard lineups, if needed. The scarcity of great shooting atop this draft bolsters his case. -- Woo
__________

5. San Antonio Spurs | Average pick: 5.0

No. 1 pick odds: 10.5% | Top-three pick odds: 31.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Rob Dillingham

2. Nikola Topic

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Zaccharie Risacher
Most likely pick if they stay at 5: Rob Dillingham | PG

The Spurs struck gold in last year's draft lottery, and this year is icing on the cake while building around Victor Wembanyama's star power. The Spurs' messy Jeremy Sochan experiment only amplified the need for a point guard who can complement Wembanyama's extraordinary skill level, making the draft's top backcourt prospects the natural place to look regardless of where this pick lands.

Dillingham's combination of perimeter shooting, ballhandling and pick-and-roll playmaking gives him significant offensive potential to grow into long term. His size and defensive limitations could be mitigated alongside a future Defensive Player of the Year-caliber rim-protector such as Wembanyama cleaning up mistakes behind him.

Topic is the best passer in this class and has enviable size that allows for significant flexibility in roster construction. He can reliably get the ball where it needs to be but has some questions about his perimeter shooting.

Sheppard's outstanding perimeter shooting, feel for the game and unselfish style of play also make for an intriguing fit for the Spurs both short term and long term. His average physical tools might not be an issue alongside Wembanyama, who could take pressure off Sheppard on both ends of the floor.

Risacher is another safe option in many ways, even if he doesn't answer any of the immediate questions the Spurs have in the backcourt. -- Givony
__________

6. Toronto Raptors (Raptors if 1-6, otherwise conveys to San Antonio) | Average pick: 5.5

No. 1 pick odds: 9.0% | Top-three pick odds: 27.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Alex Sarr

2. Zaccharie Risacher

3. Donovan Clingan

4. Matas Buzelis
Most likely pick if they stay at 6: Matas Buzelis | SF

The Raptors will be sweating out draft night, as they'll convey this pick to San Antonio if they get leapfrogged by any team slated behind them in the odds (giving them a 45.8% chance of keeping it).

Toronto continues to rebuild around wing Scottie Barnes and should be angling to re-sign restricted free agent point guard Immanuel Quickley. They traded for RJ Barrett on a long-term deal and selected wing shooter Gradey Dick in last year's draft. It would make sense for the Raptors to eye frontcourt help with this pick, preferably a prospect who can help space the floor for Barnes while allowing them to field sufficient size on the defensive end.

Sarr fits that criteria pretty well, with stretch potential and defensive switchability that isn't always easy to come by. Risacher would present a long-term wing upgrade, presuming his shooting develops to space the floor at a high level. Clingan's size and toughness could appeal to the Raptors as a defensive anchor.

Buzelis is also a consideration, as he'd give Toronto additional size, skill and versatility at forward. There's not necessarily a perfect fit, and the Raptors might want more of a physical presence, but he could slot in nicely next to Barnes long term. -- Woo
__________

7. Memphis Grizzlies | Average pick: 6.2

No. 1 pick odds: 7.5% | Top-three pick odds: 23.4%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Donovan Clingan

2. Zaccharie Risacher

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Alex Sarr
Most likely pick if they stay at 7: Nikola Topic | PG

An injury-plagued season gives the Grizzlies a chance to add more talent to a roster already featuring three significant building blocks in Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. The center position, where the Grizzlies shuffled players in and out of the lineup all season, is a natural place to look, starting with Clingan. He looks ready to play a role right away for a team hoping to bounce back into playoff contention but still has upside to grow into at just 20 years old. His size, length and instincts give him obvious appeal defensively to go with his passing, screening and finishing ability.

Sarr is another option, but his fit alongside Jackson will need to be explored more, as neither appears to have ideal bulk, toughness or rebounding prowess at the center position.

Adding a plus-sized wing with passing, shooting and defensive versatility will be attractive, making Risacher someone who could very well fit into Memphis' lineups in the short or long term.

While Sheppard's lack of size might not appear to be a great fit in the same backcourt as Morant, the combination of perimeter shooting and feel for the game could be attractive enough for the Grizzlies to pull the trigger on Sheppard.

If the Grizzlies don't move up and Topic is still on the board, pairing him with Morant could be interesting because of the Serbian player's excellent size and playmaking acumen. -- Givony
__________

8. Utah Jazz (Jazz if 1-10, otherwise conveys to Oklahoma City) | Average pick: 7.0

No. 1 pick odds: 6.0% | Top-three pick odds: 19%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Nikola Topic

4. Reed Sheppard
Most likely pick if they stay at 8: Dalton Knecht | SF

The Jazz are in a somewhat flexible position, entering the offseason with the league's second-youngest roster and having exhibited plenty of patience in putting the team together. Utah has a definite need on the wing, but it also has plenty of draft picks in the coming years and can target the best available talent should it leap into the top four.

Risacher fits cleanly as someone who can contribute on both ends and gives Utah a bigger wing defender, and he also would land in an optimal situation where he wouldn't be tasked with high usage out of the gate.

Sarr also would fit from a pure talent perspective and could allow the Jazz to field super-sized lineups with Lauri Markkanen (who is up for an extension this offseason) and Walker Kessler.

Utah is one of the cleaner landing spots for Topic because of the team's need for perimeter size and its lack of a pass-first guard, with Keyonte George, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton all scorers. Topic's ability to distribute would add a different dynamic here. Similarly, the Jazz should consider Sheppard a strong option because of his shooting ability and unselfish style.

If Utah stays here, Knecht stands out as a strong option because of the lack of true wings on the roster, the constant need for shooting and his ability to presumably step in as a contributor right away. -- Woo
__________

9. Houston Rockets (via Brooklyn Nets) | Average pick: 8.0

No. 1 pick odds: 4.5% | Top-three pick odds: 14.5%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Dalton Knecht
Most likely pick if they stay at 9: Ron Holland | SF

Despite missing the playoffs, the Rockets had a positive season with much to look forward to thanks to the young core of talent they've assembled, headlined by Alperen Sengun. The next step is to add more players to complement Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason, as the team showed it can successfully turn the page and play competitive basketball thanks to the addition of coach Ime Udoka.

Shooting was a weakness for the Rockets this campaign, so it makes sense to consider Risacher, Sheppard and Knecht if Houston moves into the top four. There also are questions regarding whether Sengun can anchor a top-flight NBA defense by himself from the center position, so pairing him with a unicorn-type big man who can guard all over the floor such as Sarr might be attractive, especially if the team feels his perimeter shooting will be a strength.

If the Rockets stay at No. 9, they likely will have a group of streaky shooters (Holland, Stephon Castle, Cody Williams, Ja'Kobe Walter, Tidjane Salaun) to select from and will need to see which one can be developed into a serviceable option. Holland's motor and scoring instincts stand out at this spot. -- Givony
__________

10. Atlanta Hawks | Average pick: 9.2

No. 1 pick odds: 3.0% | Top-three pick odds: 9.9%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Alex Sarr

2. Donovan Clingan

3. Zaccharie Risacher

4. Stephon Castle
Most likely pick if they stay at 10: Stephon Castle | PG

After missing the playoffs and enduring a difficult season, this is an important summer for the Hawks, who are primed for major changes to the roster. The Trae Young-Dejounte Murray combination hasn't worked out as envisioned, and this is the last of its own draft picks that Atlanta controls for the next three years. There should be an element of NBA readiness to consider here but also weight placed on upside, considering there might not be a chance for the Hawks to pick in the lottery for a while.

Sarr would be the biggest swing to take at the top, as the Hawks were poor defensively this season, and they are continually tasked with building an adequate defense around Young, whose lack of size creates an impediment on that end. With Clint Capela set to turn 30 in May, selecting a center of the future might be the way to go at the top, with Clingan representing a similar opportunity to shore up the front line.

Looking for two-way perimeter players also makes sense, with Risacher an option and Castle looking like an intriguing fit, particularly if he falls here to No. 10. Castle's ability to guard all over the floor and initiate as a secondary ball handler would make for a pretty strong fit alongside Young, potentially freeing Castle up as a shooter while also offering more size and switchability on the perimeter.

While there are some questions about where Castle's upside lies, he could be an ideal complementary player who addresses multiple needs on the Hawks' roster, particularly if they decide to move on from Murray. Castle could be on the board even if Atlanta doesn't move up and is a viable target if they do. -- Woo
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11. Chicago Bulls | Average pick: 10.3

No. 1 pick odds: 2.0% | Top-three pick odds: 6.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Robert Dillingham

4. Reed Sheppard
Most likely pick if they stay at 11: Isaiah Collier | PG

The Bulls have been treading water for several years and now are staring at an aging roster with few prospects for improvement internally. An unlikely jump into the lottery would give them a chance at landing some star power that has been sorely lacking, but with no sure things at the top of this class, a complete rebuild might be the most logical move going forward.

With Chicago lacking perimeter shooting, Risacher would give the Bulls some needed size on the wing along with the upside to develop into a more complete player with his feel for the game, defensive versatility and youth. Sarr could offer some real explosiveness in the frontcourt along with rim protection and potential floor spacing from the power forward position, which would pair nicely with Nikola Vucevic.

With a distinct need also at point guard, either of Kentucky's guards could be strong options for the Bulls with their shooting ability.

If the Bulls don't move up, as expected, rolling the dice on a dynamic, high-upside playmaker such as Collier could make sense. The freshman is possibly the best shot-creator in the class, getting where he wants on the floor and scoring at a prolific rate. -- Givony
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12. Houston Rockets (Rockets if 1-4, otherwise conveys to Oklahoma City) | Average pick: 11.4

No. 1 pick odds: 1.3% | Top-three pick odds: 4.3%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Dalton Knecht
Most likely pick (for OKC) if they stay at 12: Cody Williams | SG

This pick will only happen for Houston if it jumps into the top four, meaning it's more likely the Thunder will make the selection. If this pick jumps, Houston's priorities are the same: finding shooting and complementary players who fit in with its established core.

Presuming the Thunder make the pick here, it's another opportunity to stack the deck, which is already replete with tall, versatile perimeter players. This could be a soft landing spot for Williams, whose brother, Jalen, has emerged as a rising star for the Thunder after being selected No. 12 two years ago. Oklahoma City will certainly be familiar with the younger Williams and could view this as an opportunity for lightning to strike twice. -- Woo
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13. Sacramento Kings | Average pick: 12.6

No. 1 pick odds: 1.0% | Top-three pick odds: 3.0%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Dalton Knecht
Most likely pick if they stay at 13: Ja'Kobe Walter | SG

The Kings narrowly missed the playoffs after losing to New Orleans in the second play-in game. They now will see their third-leading scorer and Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Malik Monk enter unrestricted free agency, which might require them to look for his replacement in the draft.

Risacher's shooting, feel for the game and defensive versatility make him a fit on any team's roster. The idea of pairing Domantas Sabonis with a floor-spacing, shot-blocking big man such as Sarr also is very attractive considering Sabonis' limitations on the defensive end. And if all else fails, targeting two of the best shooters in the draft in Sheppard or Knecht makes sense considering the players already in place.

Should the Kings stand pat, as expected, adding a wing shooter such as Walter who can run off screens and bring high-level intensity defensively also makes sense. -- Givony
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14. Golden State Warriors (Warriors if 1-4, otherwise conveys to Portland) | Average pick: 13.6

No. 1 pick odds: 0.5% | Top-three pick odds: 1.7%

If they land in the top four, they should pick ...

1. Alex Sarr

2. Donovan Clingan

3. Zaccharie Risacher

4. Reed Sheppard
Most likely pick if they stay at 14 (pick conveys to Portland): Zach Edey | C

This pick will belong to the Trail Blazers unless it hits on long odds of jumping to the top four.

If Golden State is gifted with a top pick in this draft, it almost has to take the biggest swing possible, with Sarr and Clingan both capable of addressing the need for a true interior presence. The Warriors haven't been playing with a defensive anchor in the truest sense at the 5, and with the roster at an inflection point, grabbing a player who helps immediately and for the long term would be a coup. The Warriors have no intentions of bottoming out, and picking someone who might be able to grow into a role right away or in the long run such as Risacher or even Sheppard would be an unexpected bonus.

More likely, this pick will be made by Portland, giving it two lottery selections. While what happens here depends on the Blazers' own first-round pick at the top, the hyperproductive Edey should be a consideration. He'd offer the Blazers more toughness up front and an immediate backup for Deandre Ayton as well as a pick-and-roll partner for Scoot Henderson. While not a fit in every context, Edey will be in the conversation in this part of the lottery. -- Woo

Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams.

Jeremy Woo is an NBA analyst specializing in prospect evaluation and the draft. He was previously a staff writer and draft insider at Sports Illustrated.

via ESPN
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此帖于 2024-05-09 13:00 被 小石匠 编辑。
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