由Gemini Pro人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
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鲍比·马克斯

凯文·佩尔顿

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凯文·佩尔顿

ESPN 高级撰稿人、《职业篮球前景》系列合著者
曾担任印第安纳步行者队顾问
开发了 WARP 等级和 SCHOENE 系统

2024 年 4 月 11 日，美国东部时间上午 08:00

2023-24 赛季常规赛即将结束，这意味着在短短几天后，本赛季的新秀们将不再是新秀了。但在他们晋升为老将之前，ESPN 的鲍比·马克斯和凯文·佩尔顿对 2024 届新秀进行了一次最终排名，从最可能获得年度最佳新秀奖开始，并分析了该新秀的球队未来如何围绕他建立阵容。

马克斯：凯文，我认为我们已经过了争论维克托·文班亚马和切特·霍姆格伦谁应该获得年度最佳新秀奖的阶段。

对在整个赛季持续有出色表现的霍姆格伦来说无意冒犯，但是自从全明星赛后，文班亚马已经在全 NBA 和全防守级别上进行比赛。文班亚马作为新秀，有两场比赛得到 30 分、15 个篮板、5 次助攻和 5 次盖帽。整个职业生涯中在比赛中获得比上述数据更高的球员只有卡里姆·阿卜杜勒·贾巴尔、哈基姆·奥拉朱旺、沙奎尔·奥尼尔和大卫·罗宾逊。

因此，与其重新开始辩论，不如展望休赛期。

尽管文班亚马有着令人难以置信的赛季，但马刺队在本赛季中第四次输掉 60 场比赛。

对于马刺队在明星球员周围如何建立阵容，本赛季对你有什么启示？

佩尔顿：我会说，这比以往任何时候都更能加强我的想法。一开始我对文班亚马和另一名中锋（扎克·科林斯）搭档持怀疑态度，而尝试让杰里米·索汉打控球后卫的想法虽然很有趣，但显然文班亚马需要更多的组织帮助。

自从圣安东尼奥将文班亚马移至 5 号位，特雷·琼斯进入首发阵容后，马刺队在接下来的比赛中以 15-31 的成绩表现不错，防守达到联盟平均水平。在此之前，他们的成绩是 5-28，防守等级排名第 25。

那段时间最大的收获可能是向文班亚马本人证明了打中锋的重要性，尽管这会给他带来身体上的负担。现在，由于他的防守潜力，圣安东尼奥应该优先考虑其他四个位置的投篮和组织，以及防守的多功能性。

这引发了一个问题，即目前阵容中哪些球员与文班亚马最搭。鲍比，谁是留下的人？

马克斯：我想我们了解到其中一名球员不是科林斯。马刺队在赛季开始前与科林斯签下了一份为期两年、价值 3480 万美元的续约合同，并且因此吸取了一个昂贵的教训，那就是这种搭档并不好用。

为了更深入地了解，当科林斯和文班亚马同时在场时，马刺队的每 100 次控球平均得到 102.3 分，篮板净得分率为 -12.2。相比之下，当以琼斯、索汉、德文·瓦塞尔和凯尔顿·约翰逊为中锋的文班亚马在场时，圣安东尼奥每 100 次控球平均得到 127.3 分，篮板净得分率为 +25.6。

我同意你的观点，一位经验丰富的组织者和投手应该是本休赛期工作的重点。马刺队在助攻方面排名第二，琼斯在得分、助攻、投篮命中率和三分球命中率方面创下职业生涯新高。

虽然不能将责任归咎于琼斯，但本赛季圣安东尼奥在关键比赛中的成绩是 12-28。他们在关键时刻每场比赛平均失误 1.2 次，在所有球队中排名第三低。

琼斯以 920 万美元的低价合同签下下一赛季，他仍然对圣安东尼奥有价值，但他的角色不同于首发球员。

马刺队本赛季三分球命中率排名第 28，当他们尝试投出 40 个或更多三分球时，他们的战绩是 0-15。只有道格·麦克德莫特和切迪·奥斯曼的三分球命中率高于 37.5%。麦克德莫特在 2 月份被交易到印第安纳，奥斯曼将在今年夏天成为一名自由球员。

凯文，马刺队现在处于一个独特的位置，他们在文班亚马身上拥有一名特许球员，在六月份可能会有前 4 顺位，有 2500-3000 万美元的薪金空间，并且有可能在 2025 年获得前所未有的 5 个首轮选秀权。他们与犹他爵士队并列拥有最多的可交易首轮选秀权（9 个）。

那么，你是用这些选秀权来加快围绕文班亚马重建的速度，但这会耗费大量的选秀权（例如，如果特雷·杨或达里乌斯·加兰德中的任何一名球员可供交易），还是保持保守等待到 2025 年休赛期？

佩尔顿：我愿意做出改变，但不会急于求成，犯下达拉斯小牛队在独行侠新秀赛季期间与克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯交易时所犯的同样错误，小牛队今年将最终以本年度首轮选秀权来结束这次交易。

我不喜欢为了杨而交易的想法。我认为杨的挡拆组织可以提升进攻的吸引力，同时希望文班亚马能够在防守端弥补不足，但我更愿意让文班亚马与一名更危险的无球威胁搭档，该搭档的防守能力更强。加兰德似乎符合这个条件。如果多诺万·米切尔签署续约合同，骑士队希望在后场增加他旁边更强有力的力量，我一定会给克利夫兰打电话。

你同意优先考虑加兰德吗？如果圣安东尼奥今年夏天阵容中最大的新人是通过自由球员而非交易加入的，你会瞄准谁？

马克斯：我不会为了特雷·杨而放弃选秀资产。我同意，加兰德更合适，如果他们再次在第一轮出局，我会留意骑士队。

马刺队没有像底特律和费城那样拥有大量的薪金空间。我预计他们将拥有 2500 万美元的空间，其中包括他们的首轮选秀权的薪金空间，但包括放弃德文特·格雷厄姆和查尔斯·巴西以及放弃所有自由球员。

如果没有交易，如果他们能以 1400 万至 1600 万美元的起始工资得到他，我会瞄准特雷·琼斯的哥哥泰厄斯·琼斯，然后瞄准一些低成本的射手（例如加里·哈里斯）。

凯文，让我们转换话题，看看其他新秀。

本年度的大部分时间里，我们的新秀排名将切特·霍姆格伦排在首位。在任何其他赛季，他都可能会赢得年度最佳新秀奖。

他是 NBA 历史第一位在一个赛季中得到 150 次助攻、150 次盖帽和 100 个 3 分球的球员（文班亚马很快也加入了这个俱乐部）。

除了文班亚马和霍姆格伦之外，你还看好哪些新秀？

佩尔顿：杰米·贾奎兹二世和布兰丁·波德兹姆斯基对我来说属于同一类，他们为季后赛球队做出了大量贡献。德里克·利弗利二世在因伤缺席大量比赛之前也属于同一级别。本赛季他的上场时间将少于贾奎兹和波德兹姆斯基至少 700 分钟。

贾奎兹和波德兹姆斯基都将进入我的第一阵容全明星新秀。棘手的部分是排名第二的布兰登·米勒，他受命在几乎整个赛季没有明星控球后卫拉梅洛·鲍尔的情况下在夏洛特黄蜂队中扮演一个更大的角色。

米勒场均得到 17.3 分，仅次于文班亚马位列新秀第二，但由于自由球罚球尝试次数有限（每 36 分钟 2.5 次）以及他在球场上的糟糕防守，他的高级数据很差。（和他一起坐在板凳上时并没有好多少。）在我们的最新新秀排名中，我们两人都将米勒排在第六位。你在赛季结束时排在什么位置？

马克斯：文班亚马、霍姆格伦、波德兹姆斯基

原文如下：

NBA Rookie Power Rankings: Our ROY and what the future looks like for him

Bobby Marks

Kevin Pelton

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Kevin Pelton

ESPN Senior Writer Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system

Apr 11, 2024, 08:00 AM ET

The 2023-24 regular season is coming to a close, which means that in a few short days this season's rookies won't be rookies anymore. But before they graduate to veteran status, ESPN's Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton are providing one last ranking of the Class of 2024, starting at the top with the presumptive Rookie of the Year and how his team can build around him in the future.

Marks: Kevin, I think we are past the point of debating whether Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren should win Rookie of the Year.

No offense to Holmgren, who continues to have a strong season, but since the All-Star break, Wembanyama has played at an All-NBA and All-Defense level. Wembanyama had two games with 30 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 blocks as a rookie. The only players to do that more often over the course of their entire careers were Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson.

So rather than rehash the debate, let's jump ahead to the offseason.

The Spurs have lost 60 games for the fourth time in franchise history, despite Wembanyama's incredible season.

What did this season teach you about how the Spurs should build a roster around their star player?

Pelton: I'd say it reinforced more than anything. I was skeptical from the start of pairing Wembanyama with another center (Zach Collins), and while the idea of experimenting with Jeremy Sochan at point guard was interesting, it was always evident Wembanyama needed more playmaking help.

Since San Antonio moved Wembanyama to the 5 and Tre Jones into the starting lineup, the Spurs are a respectable 15-31 with a league-average defense, having started 5-28 with the 25th-ranked defensive rating before that.

Perhaps the best thing that stretch did was prove to Wembanyama himself how important it is to play center despite the physical toll it exacts. Now, because of his defensive potential, San Antonio should be prioritizing shooting and playmaking at all four other positions with defensive versatility as a plus.

That leads to the question of which guys currently on the roster fit well with Wembanyama. Who are the keepers, Bobby?

Marks: I think we learned that one of those players is not Collins. The Spurs signed Collins to a two-year, $34.8 million extension before the season started and learned an expensive lesson that the pairing does not work.

For more context, the Spurs averaged 102.3 points per 100 possessions and had a net rating of minus-12.2 when Collins and Wembanyama were on the court together. For comparison, when Wembanyama was at center alongside Jones, Sochan, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, San Antonio averaged 127.3 points per 100 possessions with a net rating of plus-25.6.

I agree with you that a veteran playmaker and shooting should be the priority this offseason. The Spurs ranked second in assists and Jones averaged career highs in points, assists, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

And while the blame should not fall on Jones' shoulders, San Antonio was 12-28 this season in clutch games. They averaged 1.2 turnovers per game in clutch time, third-worst among all teams.

Jones is on an inexpensive $9.2 million contract for next season and still has value for San Antonio but in a different role than starter.

The Spurs ranked 28th in 3-point field goal percentage this season and were 0-15 when they attempted 40 or more 3s. The only players who shot better than 37.5% from 3 were Doug McDermott and Cedi Osman. McDermott was traded to Indiana in February and Osman will become a free agent this summer.

Kevin, the Spurs are in this unique position where they have a franchise player in Wembanyama, a likely top-4 pick in June, $25-30 million in cap space and the possibility of an unprecedented five first-round picks in 2025. They rank tied with Utah as having the most tradable first-round picks (nine).

So do you use that draft equity to accelerate the rebuild around Wembanyama but at a cost of significant draft equity (for example Trae Young or Darius Garland if either player becomes available) or do you remain conservative, waiting until the 2025 offseason?

Pelton: I would be open to making a move but not in a hurry to force things and make the same kind of mistake the Dallas Mavericks did in dealing for Kristaps Porzingis during Luka Doncic's rookie season, a deal the Mavericks will finally finish paying off with this year's first-round pick.

I don't like the idea of dealing for Young. I see the appeal of juicing the offense with Young's pick-and-roll playmaking while hoping Wembanyama can cover up on defense, but I'd prefer to pair Wemby with a more dangerous off-ball threat who can be more competitive on defense. Garland seems to fit that bill. I'd definitely give Cleveland a call in the event Donovan Mitchell signs an extension and the Cavaliers want to put more size next to him in the backcourt.

Do you agree about prioritizing Garland? And if San Antonio's biggest addition to the roster this summer comes via free agency instead of a trade, who would you target?

Marks: I am not emptying the basket of draft assets for Trae Young. I agree, Garland is a better fit and I would keep an eye on the Cavaliers if they exit in the first round again.

The Spurs are not flushed with cap space like Detroit and Philadelphia. I project them to have $25 million in room, which includes the cap hold for their first-round pick, but accounts for waiving Devonte' Graham and Charles Bassey and renouncing all their free agents.

If there is no trade to be made, I would target Tyus Jones, Tre Jones' older brother, if they can get him on a starting salary in the $14 million to $16 million range, then target some lower-cost shooters (Gary Harris for an example).

Kevin, let's switch gears and look at the rest of the rookie class.

We had Chet Holmgren at the top spot in these rookie rankings for much of the year. In any other season, he would likely win Rookie of the Year.

He was the first player in NBA history with 150 assists, 150 blocks and 100 3-pointers in a season (a club Wembanyama joined soon after).

Outside of Wembanyama and Holmgren, who other rookies were you high on?

Pelton: Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Brandin Podziemski are in a similar group to me as players who have contributed in heavy minutes for postseason teams. Dereck Lively II was in the same tier before missing so much time with injuries. He's going to finish with at least 700 fewer minutes than both Jaquez and Podziemski.

I'd have both Jaquez and Podziemski on my All-Rookie first team. The trickier case is No. 2 pick Brandon Miller, who was asked to play a much larger role on a Charlotte Hornets team that played nearly the entire season without star point guard LaMelo Ball.

Miller has averaged 17.3 PPG, second among rookies behind Wembanyama, but his advanced numbers were poor because of limited free throw attempts (2.5 per 36 minutes) and how bad the Hornets were defensively with him on the court. (They weren't much better with him on the bench.) We both had Miller sixth in our most recent rookie rankings. Where do you land at season's end?

Marks: Wembanyama, Holmgren, Podziemski and Jaquez are in my top four.

As you said, the quagmire comes with the last spot.

There is a case to be made for Miller, who averaged 19.3 points and shot 36.8% from 3 since the start of March. He also picked up at the free throw line, totaling 15 attempts in his past three games, the most he's had in a three-game stretch this season. However, since the start of March, the Hornets are 4-15, and 12 of those 15 losses were by double digits.

That said, I would still put Miller in the top five, more because Lively has missed 24 games this season and has not played since April 4, while Miller has played 72 games so far, never missing more than two in a row.

Kevin, let's wrap this up and take a look at spots 6-10 and some players that should get All-Rookie votes.

Pelton: So far we've named six players. To me, the other four that fill out the All-Rookie teams are the Thompson twins, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Cason Wallace. Jackson-Davis moving into the starting lineup has coincided with the Warriors' late surge, while Wallace is playing a key role off the bench for one of the NBA's best teams.

Despite their limited shooting range, both Thompsons have made significant positive impact with their defense and activity. I'm fascinated by how the Houston Rockets have essentially used Amen Thompson as their center on offense since Alperen Sengun went out of the lineup, putting him in more favorable positions around the basket while making them even more versatile and terrifying defensively.

Bobby, would you have anyone else on your All-Rookie second team? And which other players merited consideration?

Marks: The only player that I would consider taking out is Ausar Thompson and replacing him with GG Jackson of the Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies' season has been ravaged by injuries and Jackson has taken advantage of his opportunity. He started the season on a two-way contract and played a total of four games the first three months of the season.

Since Jan. 1, Jackson ranks fourth in points per game among rookies, behind Wembanyama, Holmgren and Miller, and 10th in minutes played. Jackson scored a career-high 35 points in late March and became the fourth-youngest player (LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Jaren Jackson Jr.) to score 35 points in a game.

Lottery picks Scoot Henderson, Anthony Black, Bilal Coulibaly, Taylor Hendricks, Gradey Dick and Jordan Hawkins, and mid-first-round pick Keyonte George all showed flashes of potential this season but not enough to make the All-Rookie team.


via ESPN